GOOD MORNING, EVERYONE

Today is the 49th day of Russia-Ukraine War.

War broke out between Russia and Ukraine on 24th February
Russia says it destroyed 74 Ukrainian military facilities including 11
air bases
The crisis is impacting the whole world
But what difference does this situation make to us
After all, India is 4000 kms far away from Ukraine

WHAT IS THE IMPACT ON INDIA?

WHAT IS INDIA’S STANCE IN THIS WHOLE SITUATION?
WHOSE SIDE HAS INDIA TAKEN?
AND WHICH SITUATION WILL BENEFIT INDIA?

The UNSC took up this issue for voting on 30th January 2022.
India abstains from Ukraine vote in UNSC; Calls for protecting
legitimate security interests of all countries.
INDIA ABSTAIN FROM VOTING
INDIA REMAINS NEUTRAL
NOT IN FAVOUR OR NOT AGAINST EITHER
From India’s perspective ,
Russia is on one side and the West i.e., Europe and USA on the
other.
Russia is India’s Long-Term Ally- 86% of Indian weapons come from
Russia
On the other side is USA - India’s relations with USA have improved
lately
We’re making new strategic allies through the QUAD
Through the QUAD, there are active strategies planned to counter
the rise of China
India is an important dominating factor in Indian Ocean which helps
facilitate easy trade and commerce
QUAD is an important group for India Because we are threatened
by China’s expansionist plans

The grim situation for India is whatever side we choose, we only

stand to lose
They say there are no winners in a war
The war is not good news for the common man .

Within a few minutes of the market opening on 24th march

The Sensex crashed by 2700 points
People started panic selling
In a few minutes. Rs 7.5 lakh crore of investor wealth was wiped
out from the markets
The next few months were going to be volatile for the markets
Because what happens in next few months that will set the tone for
a lot of things this year
The Russian Stock Exchange fell by 50% in one day
The impact is being felt in all Asian markets.
After this Russian invasion
The US has promised to put strict sanctions on Russia
Not forgetting the most important point, Russia is the world’s 3rd
largest crude oil producer
1/3rd oil that comes into Europe is from Russia
After the sanctions on Russia, the crude oil/natural gas coming into
Europe will reduce

Crude oil prices are surging, and it is slowly crossing 7 year high
mark
Last year India, petrol & diesel touched Rs. 100. There are chances
fuel may increase by Rs. 6 to Rs. 7
Similarly international flight prices may shoot by 25% to 45%
Rising crude oil prices will impact our import bills and ultimately
impact our pockets as well
Whenever fuel prices increase, inflation increases. The rise in
transport costs hurt a business’s profit margins

Industries dependent on logistics and transport will see a rise in

prices because fuel prices will be passed on
States with upcoming elections don’t see a rise in fuel prices
But prices rise after elections
Fuel prices had not largely increased since November
States and centers reduced taxes to cool off prices But because of
this cost increase of crude oil taxes will have to be reduced even
further which will have an impact on Government finances
India takes $2.05 billion oil and minerals , $832 million stones band
metals and $609 million fertilizers from Russia
There is a chance of these sanctions halting trade
But domestic producers and competing will fill the gap

Ukraine imports pharmaceutical products from India

India’s Ranbaxy, Sun pharma and Dr. Reddy’s
These Pharma companies have offices in Ukraine
There will be a negative impact on their sales
There is a slim positive in the trade world
Ukraine and Russia are huge grain producers
The vacuum from this conflict can be filled by India
By selling wheat in the international market
Wheat prices are at a 9-year high
And a bumper grain harvest is expected this year

The third impact is on edible oils

70% of India’s sunflower oil comes from Ukraine
We import 2 lakhs to 3 lakh ton of sunflower oil every month
This conflict will impact edible oil prices
At the same time around 18000 students were studying medicine
and engineering
And they were stuck in Ukraine because of this situation
Indian govt took various steps to bring students back
Because of the neutral stance we can diplomatically evacuate these
students

The most important part is Russia is not economically sound

enough to afford a war
Even if Russia wins, it will be a loser because stock market is the
proof
Russia would not have been able to take such a drastic step if it
didn’t have a powerful ally like China backing them
China wants to be an economic superpower in the 21st century
Russia is merely a weapon for it to achieve this
It is a tool through which it can keep Europe and USA busy
Russia can’t continue its aggression without China’s money
How the world views the Russia Ukraine conflict will influence how
China treats Taiwan in the coming times
Will China invade Taiwan in the future?

That’s why many people are talking about WW3

In a nuclear world, a world war can end things for humanity
THIS MAY NOT BE WW3
THIS COULD BE COLD WAR 2
The world is marching towards a new world order
New allies are being formed
We can hope that this conflict is resolved soon.