APICS CPIM Learning System

Section B Worksheet
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Seasonal Calculation 1
Index = Per Average Demand
Average Demand all Periods

Sales Information

Quarter 1 2 3 4 Total Avg.

Year 1 30 600 1650 120 2400

Year 2 36 635 1713 134 2518

Year 3 42 670 1788 150 2650

3 Year Average

Seasonal Index
(3 decimal places for rounding
purposes)

Year 4
(Mthly Avg x 3 Yr Index) 3790

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Seasonal Calculation 2
Index = Per Average Demand
Average Demand all Periods

Sales Information

Quarter 1 2 3 4 Total Avg.

Year 1 48 470 1350 132 2000

Year 2 42 545 1635 173 2395

Year 3 54 644 1791 196 2685

3 Year Average

Seasonal Index
(3 decimal places for rounding
purposes)

Year 4
(Mthly Avg x 3 Yr Index) 3151
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© 2018 APICS 1-1 CPIM Version 6.0, 2018 Edition

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APICS CPIM Learning System

Calculate the 3-month moving average. Then plot the demand data in the graph, then guess
what the forecasted demand will be for month 7.

Moving Average Forecast

Three-month
Month Demand Forecast
total
1 102

2 91

3 95

4 105

5 94

6 101

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Moving Average Forecast Graph

104

102

100
Demand

98

96

94

92
90
0 2 4 6 8
Period
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© 2018 APICS 1-2 CPIM Version 6.0, 2018 Edition

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Exponential Smoothing Forecast

New forecast = (α) (latest demand) + (1 – α) (previous forecast)

▪ Prepare an exponential smoothing forecast for June.

– May data: actual demand = 220; forecast = 200.
– Calculate the forecast for June using a smoothing
constant (α) of .20.

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Exponential Smoothing Forecast

New forecast = (α) (latest demand) + (1 – α) (previous forecast)

▪ Prepare an exponential smoothing forecast for July.

– June data: actual demand = 240
– Calculate the forecast for July also using a smoothing
constant (α) of .20.

Section B Activities ■ 5 © 2018 APICS Confidential and Proprietary

© 2018 APICS 1-3 CPIM Version 6.0, 2018 Edition

All rights reserved