Identifying Phoenix:: Stocks Set For Comeback

Identifying Phoenix: Stocks set for comeback
April 2020
Research Analysts
Dharmesh Shah Nitin Kunte, CMT Ninad Tamhanekar, CMT

dharmesh.shah@icicisecurities.com nitin.kunte@icicisecurities.com ninad.tamhanekar@icicisecurities.com
Pabitro Mukherjee Vinayak Parmar

pabitro.mukherjee@icicisecurities.com vinayak.parmar@icicisecurities.com
April 9, 2020
Identifying Phoenix: Stocks set for comeback
o As per ancient Greek mythology, a Phoenix is a long-lived bird that cyclically regenerates or is otherwise born again. Contrary to the
above myth, there are several instances and several stocks in reality, with historical precedents, that have corrected very sharply
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during times of panics but have, thereafter, rebounded very strongly when things improve or mend. Hence, we believe there are
several such Phoenixes (stocks that have corrected > 70% from their life-time highs) available at huge bargains relative to their
business fundamentals. Even from a technical analysis set-up, chart patterns of such companies indicate a value area emerging
suggesting buying such stocks to reap handsome gains over a one-year period
o Our study of three major bear markets (classic empirical evidences) of 1992, 2000, 2008 has produced interesting revelations.
Buying good companies (credible business history over business cycles, reasonable business model with decent management
pedigree, robust balance sheet and inexpensive valuations on a historical basis) post 70% correction from their all-time highs and
holding them for a period of one year generates super normal returns of at least 60% for such stocks (refer examples on slide 3)
o Though the near-term outlook may be hazy for such companies, the risk-reward turns extremely favourable for investors as market
has already priced in extreme pessimistic scenarios. Also, as the anxiety around the event settles down and a new bull phase
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

eventually commences, these companies return abnormally high alpha for investors
Top Picks Time frame: One Year Sensex corrections > 30%
Buying MarketCap One year
Scrip Name Target Upside (%) Correction
Range (Cr) Year High Low forward
(%)
Sun Pharma 425-475 563 25 109754 return (%)
Mahindra & Mahindra 310-355 410 24 42368 1992 4546 1980 56 78
Hindustan Petroleum 182-208 240 24 30285 2000 6150 2595 58 13
Tata Motors 65-75 98 40 26351 2004 6249 4228 32 29
Cummins India 300-350 425 31 9922 2008 21206 7697 64 75
Federal Bank 37-42 55 41 8225 2020* 42274 25639 40 ?
Tata Communications 240-285 345 33 7781
Source: Bloomberg, Spidersoftware, ICICI Direct Research
April 9, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 2
No one rings bell at bottom…Initiate positions as major
supports approaching
Sensex – Quarterly Bar Chart
40%
• Index has witnessed four instances of correction exceeding 30%,
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over past three decades
• Interestingly, Investing post 30% correction has always delivered
64%
minimum one year return of 29% in three out of last four instances
• In current context, with 40% correction from all time highs, index
has entered its long term support zone.
• For Investors, its once in a decade opportunity
32%
57%
56% 75%

29%
13%
78%
Source: Bloomberg, Spidersoftware, ICICI Direct Research

Extreme oversold placement of breadth indicator indicates
sentiment low in place…
CNX 500 - Net of Advance-Decline o Among market breadth indicators, we
10000 believe the net of advance / declines
ratio of the Nifty 500 universe (which
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400 covers 90% of the free float market
capital) is a tool to measure the extent
9000 of panic in the market
300
o During ongoing corrective phase, this

200 ratio has approached its multi-year low
8000 of -497, which was recorded only three
times in the last two decades,
100 indicating extreme oversold condition
7000 o Empirically, major corrections of 2015,
0 2010, 2008 and 2006 (each measuring
at least 30% from respective life-time
high and associated with global sell-off)
6000 -100

net A/D ratio had approached oversold
condition of -496, -466, -494, -487,
respectively. These extremes typically
-200
5000 have coincided with significant market
bottoms
-300
o Therefore, we recommend that
4000 investors utilise the current panic sell-
-400 off to construct long term portfolio of
quality stocks in a staggered manner
with at least a one-year time horizon
3000 -500
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Apr-08
Jul-08
Apr-09
Jul-09
Apr-10
Jul-10
Nov-11
Nov-12
Apr-17
Jul-17
Apr-18
Jul-18
Apr-19
Nov-19
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Feb-20
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Aug-11
Aug-12
Aug-13
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Aug-19
May-11
May-12
May-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

Ignore noise, start accumulating quality businesses that have
corrected >70%
Stocks behaviour post 1992 bear phase
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Scripts % Correction from top Bottom Formed Subsequent 1 year % return
ACC 85 Jul'93 149
ITC 79 Jan'96 62 o There have been three major bear markets
Castrol India 72 Mar'93 72
(1992, 2000, 2008) over the past three decades
where the benchmark itself corrected over 40-
Stocks behaviour post 2000 bear phase 50% from its respective highs
Dabur 82 May'03 160
HCL Tech 93 Sep'01 98
o We have run our thesis across these three bear
Infosys 84 Apr'03 114 phases, of buying decent names post >70%
M&M 92 Sep'01 69 correction from life-time highs
Wipro 93 Apr'01 124

o In all three instances, one year forward returns
for such fallen gems have generated
Stocks behaviour post 2008 bear phase disproportionate returns
Axis Bank 78 Mar'09 304
Aurobindo Pharma 88 Nov'08 650 o Going by history, current bear market offers one
Federal Bank 73 Oct'08 127 such rare opportunity to hunt for good bargains
L&T 76.2 Mar'09 181
Tata Motors 87 Feb'09 425
Source: BSE India, Bloomberg ICICI Direct Research

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Stock Picks

Source:: ICICI Direct Research
April 9, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Click here to go to top
6
Sun Pharma (SUNPHA): Price-wise and time-wise maturity of
correction, augurs well for pharma stocks…
Rec. Price 425.00-475.00 Target 563.00 Upside 25% Technical Outlook
1200 • The pharma index has approached its price-
Monthly Bar Chart
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wise and time-wise correction as over
past nineteen quarters it retraced 80% of
679 Target @ preceding 17 quarters rally (| 4274 -
| 563 14020), thereby offering fresh entry
opportunity from long term prospective
• The share price of Sun pharma has staged
432 a strong pullback from key value area of |
310 as it is lower band of downward
312
sloping channel formation (as shown in
chart), placed at | 308 coincided with 80%
Key support @ | 310 being retracement of previous secular up move
lower band of rising channel seen during 2009-15 (| 95-1200), at | 316.
coincided with 80% retracement • We believe the stock is poised at key value
95 Monthly stochastic recorded bullish crossover, indicating positive bias area thereby offering favourable risk
reward. We expect stock to resolve higher

and head towards | 490 as it is 50%
retracement of last major decline (| 680 –
312), at | 495
Fundamental Outlook
• The US business comprises ~37% of turnover (FY19). After facing setbacks on the US generics front (recurring compliance issues, law suits, stiff competition etc.), the company is steadily
working on the more complex and niche areas of US specialty through products such as Absorica, Ilumya, Levulan (dermatology), BromSite, Cequa, Xelpros (ophthalmic) and Odomzo, Yonsa
(oncology), etc with calibrated approach and significant investment.
• Indian formulations form 25% of turnover (FY19). With a market share of 8.5%, the company is ranked No. 1 in domestic formulations. It leads prescription share in 11 specialties including
psychiatry, neurology, cardiovascular and diabetes. It has also embarked on a strategy to in-license the latest generation patent protected products from various innovators. We expect Indian
formulations to grow at a decent pace backed by new launches and price hikes.
• To sum up, while the US generics is witnessing calibrated product rationalisation, the US specialty segment looks promising due to robust product pipeline. However, this gradual change of
stance from generics to specialty is likely to weigh on US growth in the near term. On the other hand, enhanced focus on domestic front (addition of field force and growing in-licensing deals) is
likely to improve overall growth. On the cost front, the management expects continuous front-loading of cost on specialty launches and higher R&D spend to optimise existing specialty products
besides projecting them in other geographies such as Japan and China.
• We bank on the company's endeavour to mobilise resources towards more productive and long lasting segments..
Source: Bloomberg, Spider Software, ICICI Direct Research

Mahindra & Mahindra: Base formation at long term support
Monthly Bar Chart • The stock is currently placed at key long
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993
term support zone around | 245, which is
confluence of a) 80% retracement of entire
2008-2018 rally (56-993) and b) forms
Target equality with 2008 decline c) 2006 peak
79% which is expected to reverse its role as
@ 410
240 support
245 • We expect stock to undergo basing at

current juncture over few week which will
act as a Launchpad for next leg of rally
77%
• We expect stock price to rally towards |
410 which is 50% retracement of entire
56 decline since February (590-245)
High volume at key support symptomatic of capitulation

Fundamental Outlook
• Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) is the leader in the domestic tractor segment with market share in excess of 40%. Farm equipment is highly profitable segment for M&M wherein it realises ~20%
EBIT margins and even better capital efficiency with segmental RoCE placed at >50%
• M&M is also a prominent player in the domestic UV segment (market share pegged at ~20%), with the recent product launches yet to contribute meaningfully to the overall volumes. The
company however is ahead of competition in term of electrification and already has an Electric 3-W and E-rickshaw as well as PV (e-Verito & e-KUV 100) running on Indian roads.
• Amid the on-going nationwide lockdowns, ramp up of BS-VI production is expected to be gradual in nature for M&M, leading to a substantially weak Q4FY20E & Q1FY21E. The valuations at M&M
however have corrected much ahead of short term demand disruption.
• On its core farm + automobile portfolio it trades at inexpensive valuation of 5x EV/EBITDA on FY22E numbers. M&M also has stakes in its group companies which are fundamentally sound in
nature. Conservatively assuming holding company discount of 70% to its investment book, we arrive at a fair value of ₹ 400 for M&M using SOTP valuation methodology. The company’s recent
decision to limit its investment in its Korean arm is an added positive and will limit the cash burn at that subsidiary3PL distribution logistics 3) coastal shipping volumes
Hindustan Petroleum: Bullish double bottom at lower band of
channel
• The stock is forming a bullish double
Monthly Bar Chart
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492 bottom reversal pattern at key support
69% around |150 which is confluence of a)
328 lower bad of long term channel
encompassing past eight years price
Target
history b) yearly lows of 2016 and c)
@ 240
equality with 2011-2013 correction
123 163 150
71% • We expect stock to undergo bottoming
process over next few weeks which should
be used as a long term buying opportunity
• We expect stock price to rally towards |

240 which is 50% retracement of
35 November 19-March 20 decline (328-150)

Fundamental Outlook
HPCL is a downstream oil marketing company (OMC) engaged in refining & marketing of petroleum products. The company operates 2 refineries, one each in Mumbai & Vizag with a total refining
capacity of 16.3 MMTPA. It has market share of ~24% in retail sales volume among government OMCs. It is also in JV with Mittal energy (51% stake) for Bathinda refinery which has a capacity of
9 MMTPA
HPCL will be the beneficiary of lower crude oil prices in its retail marketing business in the medium term. It's marketing margins are expected to remain healthy as the company has not passed on
full cost benefit to consumers.
On the refining business front, we expect HPCL GRMs for FY21E at US$ 3.3/bbl. Post lockdown, better global economy can lead to some increase in refining margins which we have not factored in
our assumptions.
A sharp correction in stock price presents investors a buying opportunity. On account of healthy marketing margins and low valuations, we have a BUY rating on stocks

Tata Motors (TATMOT): The stock placed at the long term
demand line
• The stock after the last two months sharp
Quarterly Bar Chart
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605 decline is currently placed at the long term
demand line joining the lows of CY 2000 (|
11 ) and 2008 (| 25) placed around | 65
levels. The stock has witnessed a strong up
Target @ move each time it tested the long term
| 98 support line as can be seen in the adjacent
chart. We expect the stock to follow the
trend thus offers fresh entry opportunity
64 from a long term prospective
Stock placed at major long
• We expect the stock to undergo basing
term demand line
25 formation at current major support area
over the next few weeks and then resume
fresh up move towards | 98 levels being
Quarterly 14 periods RSI placed near previous major lows the 38.2% retracement of the last one

months decline (| 155-64)
Fundamental Outlook
• Tata Motors is a leading Commercial Vehicle manufacturer domestically with market share in excess of 40%. The company is revamping its strategy in the Passenger Vehicle segment, with
customer centric new age featured products. Tata Motors products in the PV category are adjudged one of the safest products on Indian roads with company securing high ranking in crash tests.
They are being increasingly preferred by customers and hold good potential, particularly new launches like Altroz and Harrier.
• On the JLR front, the company was in the middle of executing a turnaround plan with EBITDA margins in Q3FY20 at 10.8%. The new product launched at JLR namely Discovery Sport and
Defender were being much appreciates by its customers and global media. Chinese market too was on a turnaround with company clocking healthy growth post July 2019 amidst revamp of its
dealership network. JLR is the hardest hit in the present Covid crises with first China going for complete lockdown and then Europe including UK (manufacturing setup). We believe, post
restoration of normalcy, JLR will witness a smart recovery.
• On the Electrification front too, the company was one of the early movers with E-Tigor already running on Indian roads and impressive launch of E-Nexon. On the JLR front too, I-pace is being
steadily gaining traction with JLR committed for all existing model re-launches in the electric powertrain over next 18-24 months. FCF burn is being carefully watched with JLR expected to be
FCF positive in FY22E.
• The present stock price factors in most of the negatives and offers a lucrative entry point to play on the exciting turnaround opportunity at Tata Motors

Cummins India (CUMIND): Placed at a major value area of 80%
retracement of the entire 2009-2015 rally
1247 • The stock is placed at a major value area of
Quarterly Bar Chart
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| 330-280 being the confluence of 80%
retracement of the CY 2009-2015 rally (|
106 to 1247) and the major low of
Target @ December 2011 (| 322) thus provides a
| 425 favourable entry opportunity with a long
term prospective
322
• We expect the stock to form base around
The stock at major value area of | 330-280 being the the major value area and resume fresh up
confluence of move towards | 425 levels being the
- 80% retracement of CY 2009-2015 rally ( 106-1247) recent breakdown area and the 50%
106 - Major trough of December 2011 retracement of the last months decline (|
560-280)
• Quarterly stochastic is placed at previous

major low of CY 2019 and is expected to
witness pullback in the coming months
Fundamental Outlook
• Cummins India, a power leader, is a group of complementary business units that design, manufacture, distribute and service engines and related technologies, including fuel systems, air
handling, filtration, emission solutions and electrical power generation systems
• For Q3FY20, Cummins export revenues dropped 16% YoY while domestic revenues grew 3.5% YoY. Distribution business grew 19% YoY to | 420 crore from execution of certain contracts for gas
engine products. Aided by healthy traction from compressors and railways, the industrial segment grew 7% YoY offsetting the 12% YoY decline in power gen sales
• Domestic and export markets are currently facing head winds on account of a global pandemic leading to demand disruptions in short to medium term. We expect the domestic market to
witness gradual revival in demand, driven by recovery in demand in infrastructure, manufacturing capex and commercial realty sectors
• Strong balance sheet, healthy cash flows, revival in demand, recent correction in the stock price coupled with pioneering activities by the company to bring in innovative solutions and
dependable services would act as a cushion for Cummins India in the current scenario and help pave the path for future growth

Federal Bank (FEDBAN): At lower band of the last 10 year
upward sloping channel
Monthly Bar Chart • The share price has already seen a
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127
correction of the magnitude of correction
seen during CY 2008 and is currently
placed at the lower band of the rising
Target @
channel containing price activity of the last
| 55
10 years as can be seen in the adjacent
41 chart thus provides bargain buy opportunity
and one should accumulate the stock in
36 staggered manner
Base formation is expected at the • The monthly stochastic is extremely

22
lower band of the rising channel oversold and is currently placed near the
of the last 10 years precious major yearly lows
11 • We expect the stock to form base around

Monthly stochastic placed at previous major lows
the lower band of the rising channel and

resume fresh up move towards | 55 levels
as it is the gap area of 23rd March and 38%
retracement of March 20 decline (| 88-36)
Fundamental Outlook
• Federal Bank is a Kerala based regional old private sector banks with gross advances at |120861 crore and deposits at | 144592 crore as of December 2019. The loan book as of Q3FY20 favors
retail & SME loans which comprises 59% at ~| 71308 crore of net advances while corporate loans constitutes 41% at ~| 49553 crore. Outbreak of Covid-19 is expected to lead to moderation in
advances growth in near term. Overall credit growth seen at 12.7% CAGR in FY20-22E to | 196417 crore
• The bank has a strong liability franchise with CASA of 31.46%. Retail term deposit comprises >69% of total deposit. We expect deposit growth at ~15.3% CAGR in FY20-22E to | 196417 crore.
In the current scenario, exposure to SME segment is expected to keep asset quality volatile. Anticipation of gradual recovery is expected to lead to increase in GNPA to 3.6% in FY22E. However,
higher provisioning at ~80 bps of advances is seen to keep NNPA stable at ~1.4-1.5%
• Higher credit cost anticipated in FY21E is expected to impact momentum of earnings. However, as economic normalizes, we expect advances to pick up ahead. Overall, we expect PAT to grow
at ~27% CAGR in FY20-22E to | 2485 crore, with FY21E seen to witness a blip. Outbreak of Covid-19 and exposure to MSME segment is seen to impact asset quality as well as return ratios in
near term. However, recent steep correction in the price (stock is currently trading at ~0.5x FY22E ABV) makes risk reward favorable

Tata Communications (TATCOM): Base formation at long term
demand line
783 783 • The stock is forming a base at the long
Quarterly Bar Chart
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term demand line joining the lows of CY
2003 (| 69) and 2013 (| 137) placed
around | 200 levels thus provides fresh
Target @ entry opportunity with a favourable risk
| 345 reward set up from a long term prospective
• The stock during current week has

200 resumed up move after the last three
weeks consolidation and has formed a
137 Base formation at the higher high-low for the first time in last 10
long term demand line weeks highlighting buying demand at major
support area
69
Quarterly 14 periods RSI displaced at previous major lows • We expect the stock to maintain positive
bias and head towards | 345 levels being

the 61.8% retracement of the February-
March 2020 decline (| 445-200)
Fundamental Outlook
• Tata Communications is confident of expanding the growth services portfolio. They have attributed IZO platform as the key driver of the growth services traction, going ahead, as it has a
humongous addressable market size of US$4 billion
• The company has also indicated that they aspire to reach 2.2-2.5x net debt to EBITDA driven by deleveraging through organic cash flow generation
• Over the last few quarter, the growth in data segment has been impressive driven by growth services and as the company expands the innovation services, we expect the data margins to
expand to 22% in FY22 vs. ~19% in FY20

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Appendix 1

Source:: ICICI Direct Research
April 9, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Click here to go to top
14
Stocks with correction >70%
All time high All time High % Fall from All

Sr Company Name Sector
Date Price time high
MOMENTUM PICK
1 Tata Motors 03-02-2015 605.66 90 Auto and Auto ancillary
2 Mahindra CIE 08-01-2008 384.1 85 Auto and Auto ancillary
3 Automotive Axle 29-01-2018 1849 82 Auto and Auto ancillary
4 Motherson Sumi 20-12-2017 263.87 82 Auto and Auto ancillary
5 VST Tillers 24-04-2018 3095 81 Auto and Auto ancillary
6 Ashok Leyland 08-05-2018 167.5 80 Auto and Auto ancillary
7 M M Forgings 18-06-2018 742.2 79 Auto and Auto ancillary
8 Apollo tyres 17-04-2018 307.25 76 Auto and Auto ancillary
9 Mahindra & Mahindra 29-08-2018 993 75 Auto and Auto ancillary
10 Lumax Industries 07-05-2018 2580 74 Auto and Auto ancillary
11 Asahi India Glass 14-09-2017 438 73 Auto and Auto ancillary
12 Indusind Bank 03-08-2018 2038 88 BFSI

13 Repco Home Finance 13-06-2017 924 88 BFSI
14 Bank of Baroda 23-01-2015 228.9 80 BFSI
15 Bandhan Bank 09-08-2018 741.8 79 BFSI
16 IDFC First Bank 29-09-2016 83.4 79 BFSI
17 LIC Housing Finance 20-06-2017 794 77 BFSI
18 Federal Bank 17-10-2017 127.65 72 BFSI
19 DCB Bank 25-06-2019 244.65 70 BFSI
20 Ador Welding 05-10-2017 659 76 Capital goods
21 Cummins India 07-08-2015 1247.65 72 Capital goods
22 Bharat Electronics 29-11-2017 193.4 71 Capital goods
23 Phillips Carbon 09-01-2018 318.8 83 Chemicals
24 Gujarat Heavy chemicals 24-01-2018 357.4 81 Chemicals
Note: 1) Stocks with Bold and Italic font in above table are our recommendations
2) The list of stocks enlisted in the above report is selected on the basis of certain statistical and technical models. This report recommends only 7
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research stocks indicated in the report and other stocks are mentioned only for analysis purpose

MOMENTUM PICK
25 Butterfly Gandhimati 18-01-2018 648.65 87 Consumer
26 Greenply 10-01-2018 401.1 82 Consumer
27 Shalimar Paints 17-05-2017 229.65 82 Consumer
28 GM Breweries 08-01-2018 966.4 77 Consumer
29 Orient Hotels 23-01-2018 68.45 80 Hispitality
30 EIH Hotels 16-01-2018 231.6 76 Hospitality
31 Entertainment Network 05-07-2017 1005 90 Media
32 SAIL 06-12-2007 293 93 Metal
33 NMDC 19-01-2010 571.2 89 Metal
34 Jindal Steel n Power 27-08-2010 796.1 89 Metal
35 JSL Hisar 11-01-2018 252.4 88 Metal
36 Vedanta 09-04-2010 495 88 Metal

37 National Aluminium 29-05-2008 141.61 83 Metal
38 Tata Steel 01-01-2008 912.02 72 Metal
39 Hindalco 05-01-2018 284 70 Metal
40 Hindustan Petro 31-08-2017 492.8 70 Oil&Gas
41 Asahi Songwong 10-01-2018 425.2 85 Others
42 Gujarat Pipavav Port 06-04-2015 261.9 83 Others
43 Dhampur Sugar 01-11-2017 330.5 80 Others
44 SpiceJet 19-08-2019 152.85 80 Others
45 BlueDart 23-10-2015 7850 77 Others
stocks indicated in the report and other stocks are mentioned only for analysis purpose


MOMENTUM PICK
46 Glenmark 21-08-2015 1262.9 87 Pharma and Healthcare
47 SunPharma Advanced Research 10-03-2015 593.81 86 Pharma and Healthcare
48 Advanced Enzymes 25-10-2016 475.1 79 Pharma and Healthcare
49 Gufic Bio 09-05-2018 163.9 77 Pharma and Healthcare
50 Lupin 06-10-2015 2129 76 Pharma and Healthcare
51 RPG Life sciences 11-01-2018 610.05 76 Pharma and Healthcare
52 Sun Pharma 07-04-2015 1200.8 74 Pharma and Healthcare
53 Shilpa Medicare 23-12-2016 786.9 74 Pharma and Healthcare
54 Hikal 10-09-2018 206.9 72 Pharma and Healthcare
55 Adani Power 14-09-2010 145.9 84 Power
56 Tata Power 04-01-2008 160.03 81 Power
57 JSW Energy 06-09-2010 136.3 75 Power

58 NTPC 15-01-2008 242.19 70 Power
59 NBCC 08-11-2017 145.65 90 Realty and Infra
60 Sagar Cement 04-01-2018 1175.5 80 Realty and Infra
61 India Cement 14-12-2007 332.6 80 Realty and Infra
62 Brigade Enterprises 31-12-2007 353.34 70 Realty and Infra
63 Cyient 11-05-2018 887 76 Technology
64 Tata Communications 17-03-2017 783.9 74 Telecom
65 Rupa 15-06-2017 589.95 83 Textiles
66 Ambika Cotton 04-01-2018 1859.95 79 Textiles
stocks indicated in the report and other stocks are mentioned only for analysis purpose

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Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICI Direct Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

Disclaimer
We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Nitin Kunte, Ninad Tamhanekar, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the
subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts are not registered as research analysts by FINRA and are not associated
persons of the ICICI Securities Inc. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee
of the companies mentioned in the report.
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Identifying Phoenix:: Stocks Set For Comeback

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Identifying Phoenix:: Stocks Set For Comeback

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Identifying Phoenix: Stocks set for comeback

Dharmesh Shah Nitin Kunte, CMT Ninad Tamhanekar, CMT

Pabitro Mukherjee Vinayak Parmar

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: Bloomberg, Spidersoftware, ICICI Direct Research

o During ongoing corrective phase, this

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

Stocks behaviour post 1992 bear phase

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: BSE India, Bloomberg ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: Bloomberg, Spider Software, ICICI Direct Research

Rec. Price 310.00-355.00 Target 410.00 Upside 24% Technical Outlook

Monthly Bar Chart • The stock is currently placed at key long

245 • We expect stock to undergo basing at

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

• We expect stock price to rally towards |

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: Bloomberg, Spider Software, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: Bloomberg, Spider Software, ICICI Direct Research

• Quarterly stochastic is placed at previous

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: Bloomberg, Spider Software, ICICI Direct Research

Monthly Bar Chart • The share price has already seen a

Base formation is expected at the • The monthly stochastic is extremely

11 • We expect the stock to form base around

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: Bloomberg, Spider Software, ICICI Direct Research

• The stock during current week has

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: Bloomberg, Spider Software, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

All time high All time High % Fall from All

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

All time high All time High % Fall from All

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

All time high All time High % Fall from All

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Mumbai – 400 093

April 9, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 18

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

April 9, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 19

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