STAT 431 FALL 2016

HOMEWORK 1
(DUE BY THE END OF CLASS ON SEP 7)

• R is not required for this homework.

• Your answers can be submitted online (typed or scanned) or on paper.
• I will post homework solutions right after class on Sep 7. Please notify me if
you cannot make the deadline.

1. Type I and II error of a statistical test

In a standard dissolution test for tablets of a particular drug product, the manu-
facturer must obtain the dissolution rate for a batch of tablets prior to release of the
batch. Suppose that the dissolution test consists of assays for 20 randomly selected
individual 25 mg tablets. For each test, the tablet is suspended in an acid bath
and then assayed after 30 minutes. The results of the 20 assays are given in file
dissolution.txt.
(1) Is there significant evidence that the batch of pills have a mean dissolution
rate less than 20 mg, which is 80% of the labeled amount in the tablets? Use
α = 0.05. Describe the five parts of the test with appropriate math symbols.
(2) Calculate the type II error rate if the true dissolution rate is 19.6 mg. Provide
detailed steps. Explain in words what this error rate means.
(3) Calculate the type II error rate for each of the following true dissolution rates:
10, 10.5, 11, 11.5, 12, 12.5, 13, 13.5, 14, 14.5, 15, 15.5, 16, 16.5, 17, 17.5, 18,
18.5, 19, 19.5, 20, 20.5, 21, 21.5, 22, 22.5, 23, 23.5, 24, 24.5.
• Report the type II error rates;
• Plot the type II error rates (y axis) against the dissolution rates (x axis);
• Describe how the type II error rates change with respect to the dissolu-
tion rates. Is the trend consistent with your expectation? Why or why
not?
(4) Report the power for each of the true dissolution rates in (3), and plot them
against the dissolution rates. Describe how power changes with the disso-
lution rates. Is the trend consistent with your expectation? Why or why
not?
(5) Repeat (3) and (4) for α = 0.01 and α = 0.1. Plot the three sets of type II
error rates in one graph. Plot the three sets of power in one graph. Describe
1
2 STAT 431 FALL 2016 HOMEWORK 1 (DUE BY THE END OF CLASS ON SEP 7)

how the type II error rate and power change with the type I error rate. Are
the trend consistent with your expectation? Why or why not?

2. Testing equality of two means

An industrial concern has experimented with several different mixtures of the
four components – magnesium, sodium nitrate, strontium nitrate, and a binder –
that comprise a rocket propellant. The company has found that two mixtures in
particular give higher flare-illumination values than the others. Mixture #1 consists
of a blend composed of the proportions 0.4, 0.1, 0.42, and 0.08, respectively, for the
four components of the mixture; mixture #2 consists of a blend using the proportions
0.6, 0.27, 0.1, and 0.05. Twenty different blends (10 of each mixture) are prepared
and tested to obtain the flare-illumination values. These data (in units of 1000
candles) are in file mixture.txt.
(1) The company is interested in knowing whether the mean illumination val-
ues are the same. In order to decide which test to use, they first need to
test whether the two variances are the same. Perform this test at α=0.05.
Describe the five parts of the test with appropriate math symbols.
(2) Based on the conclusion in (1), choose an appropriate test for the equality of
the means. Perform the test at α = 0.05. Describe the five parts of the test
with appropriate math symbols.
(3) If the normality assumption does not hold, we can perform a nonparametric
test, for example, the Wilcoxon rank sum test. Read the following description
and Example 6.5 on p307 in the textbook. Perform the Wilcoxon rank sum
test for the mixture data at α = 0.05. Describe the five parts of the test with
appropriate math symbols.
• Assumptions:
– Two samples are nonnormal but have identical distribution with
shifted mean;
– Two samples are independent;
– Sample size may be small.
• Idea: compare the ranks of data points in the two samples.
• Example 6.5 (p307): reaction time after alcohol and nonalcoholic drink.
• Test statistic: T , which is the sum of ranks of data points from sample
#1.
• Distribution:
– For sample size ≤ 10, given in Table 5 in the Appendix of the
textbook.
 STAT 431 FALL 2016 HOMEWORK 1 (DUE BY THE END OF CLASS ON SEP 7) 3

– For larger sample sizes, can use a normal approximation N (µT , σT2 ):
n1 (n1 + n2 + 1)
(1) µT = .
2
The variance term may be complex, depending on whether there
are ties. See expressions on p311 in the textbook.
3. Confidence interval
A problem of interest concerned with the critical shortage of food throughout the
world is finding a method to estimate the total amount of grain crops that will be
produced throughout the world in a particular year.
One method of predicting total crop yields is based on satellite photographs of
Earth’s surface. Because a scanning device reads the total acreage of a particular
type of grain with error, it is necessary to have the device read many equal-sized
plots of a particular planting to calibrate the reading on the scanner with the actual
acreage. Satellite photographs of one hundred 50-acre plots of wheat are read by the
scanner and give a sample average of 3.27 and standard deviation of 0.23.
(1) Identify important quantities in the description and use appropriate math
symbols to denote them.
(2) Find a 95% confidence interval for the mean scanner reading for the popula-
tion of all 50-acre plots of wheat. Include the formula in your answer.
(3) Explain the meaning of the confidence interval.
(4) If the expectation for the wheat yield of a 50-acre plot is 3.4, is the sample
average significantly different from the expectation at the significance level
of 95%? Explain your answer.