Probability-Based Assessment of Dam Safety Using Combined Risk Analysis and

Reliability Methods – Application to Hazards Studies – An Article Digest

ABSTRACT

Dams feature mechanisms that might cause failures, such as the movement of water
within the structures, different damage processes (hydraulic, chemical, and mechanical), various
failure types, and time-scaled damages. This paper applies a simultaneous approach in the
combination of risk analysis with the reliability method to exhibit their application in practice of
dam safety assessment for RCC dams and to show their contribution to operational applications
and hazards studies based on random variables indexed to space or time. As part of risks
investigations, the recommended methodologies for risk analysis modeling and input data
probability-based modeling were applied to an operational dam. Thus, this dam safety
probability-based evaluation incorporates two critical scientific issues: (1) How could the
complex mechanisms that occur within the works be modelled? (2) How could their structural
safety be assessed based on probability? The results show that the proposed method is a high-
efficiency, fast convergence and more scientific method with reasonable outputs compared to
common uncertainty probability analysis methods.

INTRODUCTION

Reservoir dams play a vital part in generating electricity, irrigation and navigation and
carry the risk of a dam failure which gravely jeopardizes the safety of life and properties
downstream. With the growth of the social economy, public safety awareness has been
improved; thus, higher obligations on the safety of a water conservancy project have been put
forward.

Combined risk analysis and reliability methodology could hardly be observed as a tool in
research particularly risk assessment studies. Primarily, qualitative research is the common
outcome from other areas that utilize the risk analysis method in analyzing complex systems
such as that of dams. Meanwhile reliability methods are employed for non-complex mechanisms
that aims to assess and evaluate structural safety.
 The risk analysis method is applied in the modelling of scenarios that could occur into the
dam that could be a cause to sequences of failure. It is an essential method in predicting by
analyzing work operation especially in dams in evaluating failure modes and scenarios that could
lead to disaster and high-risk situations.

Few of the common mechanisms that initiate destruction to dams include movement of
water within the structures, hydraulic, chemical, and mechanical processes that occur therein and
other failure modes that are scalable over time. Certainly, loadings and strength factors in the
work design methods could not be determined precisely. To this, reliability-based methods are to
be applied in computing the parameters of the structural stability design of dams. In general, this
leads to more accurate results, which are then employed in modeling procedures based on
random variables to examine the dangers of RCC (Roller Compacted Concrete) gravity dams
through the construction of models chosen for their resistance qualities and hydrostatic loads.

DISCUSSIONS

The risk analysis method provides a model to represent the operation to failure scenarios
that could possibly occur at a high-risk situation for a dam. It is an effective tool for structural
safety analysis and is widely used in various fields. The risk analysis model consisted of three
steps: a functional analysis, a failure mode analysis, and the development of failure scenarios.
Dams are defined by its structural elements and the functions it performs. The functional analysis
takes dam as a subject whose reaction to external factors are examined and distinguishes the dam
to be assessed, its boundaries and external interactions. Failure mode analysis then determines
potential source of failures in a system or dam. An RCC dam can fail because of many
uncertainties: (1) the comprehensive effects of complex stress and high water pressure (Shi et al.,
2016); (2) the slide-based instability along the foundation surface; (3) general structural damage;
(4) excessive seepage; (5)the interlayer sliding instability, tensile failure and compressive failure,
which are interrelated and rarely and so on. On some cases that these failure modes are
identified, failure scenario method is used to construct the event-tree diagram that depicts the
successive sequence of failure modes derived from the starting event to the concluding events.
The event Tree Analysis (ETA) is considered as a very cost-effective method and have been
recognized by the engineering community. (Ren et al., 2012)
 Moreover, probability-based modelling of a dam structural safety reliability-based
assessment considers the available information including the strength and loadings variability
from tests performed during the construction of the dams. The process in modelling probability
distributions for RCC shear strength include: (1) Statistical analysis of densities measured in the
compaction control tests, (2) Modelling the compressive strength through analysis of density
data scatter, (3) Modelling tensile strengths by unification method, (4) Modelling of shear
strength parameters as a physical relationship.

The hydrologic research and work construction data are critical to the study when
undertaking a risk analysis and reliability-based methodologies. The RCC dam in subject was 35
meters high with a top thickness of 6 meters and a crest height of 255.1 meters. Its flood gate is
13.5 meters wide free surface spillway, adjusted to 254 meters and positioned at the dam center
(Figures 1 & 2). The RCC utilized was modified to a binder content of 110 to 120 kg per
compacted cubic meter and the dam upstream face is made of vibrated concrete.

A civil expert panel specializing in dam design was constituted, facilitated by an engineer
specializing in risk analysis to provide an assessment of the occurrence probability of failure of
the dam. From the Functional analysis and FMEA analysis applied to the dam’s body and flood
gate system, it was professed that a partial or a total failure of the flood gate system is considered
that would lead to an uncontrolled rise of the water surface. Due to the decreased section owing
to gate clogging, the flood gate outflow criteria are changed as a result of the flood gate failure.
Human factors and tree trunks could possibly be the trigger to the failure mode. Such records,
however, would not be sufficient to complement a statistical analysis for the frequency of its
occurrence. Although, the expert panel supposed that it is impossible for a total failure to occur
due to clogging by jams inasmuch as there’s not a risk of large bulky waste. To that end, the
panels only assess a partial failure of 30% of the spillway while the remaining 70% remains
operational.

To perform the probability-based modelling of the reservoir, the reservoir headwater

level was monitored during the work operation. (Figure 3) Each randomly sampled hydrograph-
reservoir initial level pair was significant to the hydraulic computations in determining the
correlation between the reservoir operation and hydrologic events. It is evident that the operation
of a dam reservoir cannot be dependent as well as the flood occurrence since they are
interconnected to the seasons. As a part of a reliability-based analysis, knowledge about the
uncertainty bearing upon the uplift diagram is taken into account using a random variable that
reflects the drainage and grout device performances. It was advised that a stochastic simulation
of flood hydrographs and a random sampling of the reservoir be undertaken on a seasonal basis,
with flood hydrographs and beginning levels treated as uncorrelated variables for each
hydrological season. Such hydraulic computations consider the flood rolling by the reservoir as
well as the flood gate capacity. The maximum distribution of reservoir level during floods was
modified using a probability distribution. Upstream hydrostatic loading is modelled considering
the partially blocked flood spillway of 30%. Results are showed on Figure 4. At a layer scale,
compressive strength scattering is obtained following the assumption that the scattering ratios
between unit weight and compressive strength are kept between the local and layer scales.
(Figure 5) The dam was not tested for tensile strength whilst shear strength parameter variability
was assessed from RCC intrinsic curve and by Monte Carlo simulations.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The analysis of the data indicates a very low failure probability for all tested sections and
profiles, showing that the dam will not break from hydrostatic loading during floods regardless
of its intensity or in the event of a spillway failure.

The method proposed in this study ensures the comprehensiveness and effectiveness of
the probabilistic risk assessment of RCC dam under uncertainties, which makes up for the failure
to consider the greyness and randomness in the probabilistic risk analysis of the RCC dam. Due
to the similarity of structural engineering analysis principles, the analysis method proposed is not
limited to the failure probabilistic risk analysis of an RCC dam but can also be used for the other
structural engineering projects.

An important prospect for this research is to provide an alternative methodology for

identifying the spatial variability and the modelling of shear strength properties of gravity dam
rock discontinuities and foundation-dam interfaces. Such variability analysis should encompass
all accessible knowledge sources for a work probability-based assessment. The obtained results
can provide an important theoretical basis for risk assessment of an RCC dam and support for the
safe operation and management of water conservancy projects.
FIGURES

Figure 1. View of the dam from the cross section Figure 2. Structural Analysis of the dam

Figure 3. Reservoir headwater level monitoring records.

Figure
Figure 5.
4. Compressive strength variability
Probability distribution at local
for hydraulic and with
loading layer30%
scales.
defaulting spillway.
REFERENCES

Peyras L., Carvajal C., Felix H., Bacconnet C., Royet P., Becue J. & Boissier D. (2012)
Probability-based assessment of dam safety using combined risk analysis and reliability methods
– application to hazards studies, European Journal of Environmental and Civil Engineering, 16:7,
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Ren, Q., Li, Q., and Liu, S. (2012). “Research advance in failure risk and local strength failure
for high arch dams.” Chinese Science Bulletin, Vol. 57, No. 36, pp. 4672-4682, DOI:
10.1007/s11434-012-5563-7.

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