Creative communications informed by behavioral science

www.pacifico.la
 Sharpening Disaster Risk and Crisis Communication by applying
behavioral Insights

Partner: Inter-American Understanding psychological barriers to

Development Bank and the
Government of Bahamas hurricane evacuation in the Bahamas
(Bahamas, 2022)

➔ An IDB project. Case study in

the Bahamas implemented by
Pacifico. Collaborating with the
Behavioral Science team at the
IDB, we interviewed 60
survivors of Hurricane Dorian
(2019) and identified the
psychological barriers that
prevented successful
evacuation.
 Index
The Challenge
➔ Understanding behaviors during Hurricane Dorian 2019.
➔ Actors involved.
➔ Improving risk communications using Behavioral Science.

The Process
➔ Context, Research, Hypothesis, Interviews, Analysis, Findings.
➔ Semi-structured interviews with public officials and community representatives.
➔ Proposed psychological barriers and questions to analyze them during interviews.

Findings and lessons learnt

➔ Drivers of risk perceptions.
➔ 5 psychological biases.
➔ Recommendations to improve risk communications..

Ideas for interventions

➔ Personalizing content.
➔ Making an emergency plan online.
3 ➔ Using polls to understand risk perceptions.
 4

The challenge

During hurricane Dorian (2019), government alerts

were sent but many residents did not act on them.

How can we use behavioral science to understand

the barriers and come up with recommendations
to improve risk communications?

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Behavioral Science in public policy

Predictive biases or flaws in Enriching public policy with Understanding how people
our decision making (2003) behavioral insights (2008) perceive risk (2012)
5
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Affected individuals who received

government alert messages but did not take action.

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Psychological barriers that limit

evacuation decisions

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 Index
The Challenge
➔ Understanding behaviors during Hurricane Dorian 2019.
➔ Actors involved.
➔ Improving risk communications using Behavioral Science.

The Process
➔ Context, Research, Hypothesis, Interviews, Analysis, Findings.
➔ Semi-structured interviews with public officials and community representatives.
➔ Proposed psychological barriers and questions to analyze them during interviews.

Findings and lessons learnt

➔ Drivers of risk perceptions.
➔ 5 psychological biases.
➔ Recommendations to improve risk communications..

Interventions

➔ Personalizing content
➔ Decisions and emotions.
8 ➔ Make a plan online.
 The methodology

Cultural
Research Hypothesis Interviews
context

Reviewed
Analysis Findings Recommendations
Hypothesis

9
 Research
Crisis Communications during Dorian
➔ Government social media
accounts distributed
infographics highlighting
neighborhoods under
evacuation orders.
➔ A press conference was also
held on August 31 with officials
from the Department of
Meteorology and the National
Emergency Management
Agency and included the
prime minister.
Message:
➔ The government message on
evacuation emphasized: the
areas under evacuation, the
need for political unity,
concern for physical well-being
over property, and the
seriousness of the storm.
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➔ The prime minister’s message
also emphasized the
government resources being
put in place (such as boats for
transportation). Shelters were
briefly mentioned.
➔ The August 31 press
conference mentioned areas
with residents who were
resistant to evacuating,
including outlying areas in the
Abaco Islands and areas with
large Haitian communities
(The Mudd and Pigeon Peas).
In his remarks, Prime Minister
Dr. Hubert Minnis said that the
“responsibility of the
government” was to ensure
everyone was safe, regardless
of their immigration status.
➔ Referring to those who were
not heeding the evacuation
order, Prime Minister Minnis
used the following messages:
+ Not to be “foolish” or
“irresponsible” by attempting
to ride out the storm
+ Emphasizing the serious
nature of the storm with
scientific details
+ Emphasizing his and the
government’s “concern”
+ Pleading for them to
consider the lives of vulnerable
family members (like the
young and elderly) who
depended on them, and to
allow those family members to
evacuate at the least
+ Using religious language,
such as invoking God.
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Interviews
➔ Risk Reduction Practitioners.

➔ Risk Communications Teams.

➔ Local community leaders.

➔ Priests and Ministers.

➔ Local businesses.

MAPPING RISK ➔ Local organizations.

PERCEPTIONS ➔ Tourists.

➔ Local entrepreneurs.

➔ Haitian community.

➔ Local firemen.

➔ Family island administrators.

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Cultural context
A Bahamian Culture Of “Riding
Out The Storms at home”, is
being re-discussed.
12
12
“We are still adapting
the traditional
narrative of riding
our storms at home
to the new evidence
of super storms like
Dorian.”
Ferguson, Journalist
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Interviews
➔ Risk Reduction Practitioners.

➔ Risk Communications Teams.

➔ Local community leaders.

➔ Priests and Ministers.

➔ Local businesses.

MAPPING RISK ➔ Local organizations.

PERCEPTIONS ➔ Tourists.

➔ Local entrepreneurs.

➔ Haitian community.

➔ Local firemen.

➔ Family island administrators.

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Risk communications depends on a

shared understanding of how others regard risk.

(Arvai & Rivers, 2014)

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We filter information out or in, depending on our existing beliefs and

values.

Our attitudes towards risk are part of who we are.

Dake (1991)

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Individuals tend to resist information that contradicts their cultural values.

Individuals can be made more receptive to such information when it is

communicated to them in forms that affirm their status or identity.

Kahal et al. (2015)

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 Index
The Challenge
➔ Understanding behaviors during Hurricane Dorian 2019.
➔ Actors involved.
➔ Improving risk communications using Behavioral Science.

The Process
➔ Context, Research, Hypothesis, Interviews, Analysis, Findings.
➔ Semi-structured interviews with public officials and community representatives.
➔ Proposed psychological barriers and questions to analyze them during interviews.

Findings and lessons learnt

➔ Drivers of risk perceptions.
➔ 5 psychological biases.
➔ Recommendations to improve risk communications..

Interventions

➔ Personalizing content
➔ Decisions and emotions.
17 ➔ Make a plan online.
 Drivers of risk perception

➔ Cultural ➔ Psychological
biases traits

➔ Cognitive ➔ Emotions
biases

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Worldviews or cultural biases
The Cultural Theory model predicts behavior in line with four attitudes towards risk:

1. Individualists They value personal choice and initiative. They need clear evidence
and individual benefit.

2. Hierarchists They want well established rules and procedures. They prefer to rely
on technical assessments and trust the competence of government
elites.

3. Egalitarians Sensitive to environmental hazards. They demand public

participation in decisions and tend to distrust expertise and any
“Government knows best” approach.

4. Fatalists They tend to see attempts at control as futile. Hard to engage in

dialogue. Difficult to persuade to act to tackle risks.

Douglas & Moldavsky (1983); Kahan (2005); Slovic (2012).

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ANALYSING DECISIONS
An irrevocable allocation of resources,
with conflicting objectives & trade offs.

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JUDGMENTS BEHIND DECISIONS

The decision is a cocktail of judgments.

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 Analyzing Judgments Behind Decisions
Decision problem 1 Judgments 2 Biases 3

➔ Should we evacuate or ➔ “We didn’t want to cut our

➔ Status Quo Bias
vacation short”.
should we stay?
➔ “We pray when we need to ➔ Loss aversion
make an important

Amy decision.”
Tourist from ➔ Herding.
Colorado. ➔ “We felt we were there for a
reason”. “

➔ “We trust the locals more

than the news”.

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 Analyzing Judgments Behind Decisions
Decision problem 1 Judgements 2 Biases 3

➔ Should we evacuate or should ➔ “Evacuation is not a viable

➔ Single option bias.
we stay? alternative when you have
assets and a business.“

➔ “Friday morning before the

➔ Status quo bias.
Ken storm, looked at the weather,
Local business and we knew we were
owner. screwed.“

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“I moved seven
times during the
eye of the storm:
first to our
neighbors house,
then shelter, the
TAKING ACTION church, the
MEANT DIFFERENT government clinic.
THINGS TO We finally went
DIFFERENT PEOPLE back to the original
house.”
CONTEXT MATTERS!
Jim, boat owner

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 AFFECTED BY CONTEXT

Decision 1 VALUES

AVAILABLE INFORMATION

The Decision
AFFECTED BY CONTEXT

NEW EXPERIENCE OF EVENT

OF INCREASED THREAT To stay To leave

Process
NEW INFORMATION

Decision 2
Over Time AFFECTED BY CONTEXT

NEW EXPERIENCE OF

For many it was two To stay To leave EVENT OF INCREASED

THREAT

different decisions in two NEW INFORMATION

different moments. Decision 3

"In 30 mins you will have BAD

To stay To leave EXPERIENCE AT

45 mins to go
SHELTER

somewhere"
Decision 4

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Evacuation is not a
viable alternative
when you have assets
and a business.

When you live on a

IDENTIFIED PSYCHOLOGICAL BIASES rock, in the middle of
the ocean, there is
SINGLE OPTION BIAS nowhere to go.

The tendency to think of a decision in terms

of a dilemma or “either - or”, instead of a
Ken
decision among multiple options.
Business Owner

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THE THEORY OF BOUNDED RATIONALITY

Herbert Simon. 1953.

The cognitive limitations of the decision maker force him

to construct a simplified model of the world to deal with
it, particularly in moments of uncertainty. (White,
1961).

Local regulations or cultural traditions eliminate some

alternatives from consideration, and lack of awareness
eliminates the others.

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“We always say:

if it’s a Cat 3, it’s
OK.
Dorian came as
IDENTIFIED PSYCHOLOGICAL BIASES a 3. But then it
STATUS QUO BIAS intensified
to almost a 6.”
Status quo bias is evident when people
prefer things to stay the same by doing Monica Cook
nothing (see also inertia) or by sticking with a
Entrepreneur
decision made previously.

Status quo bias is a preference for the

current state of affairs.

It’s an emotional bias.

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“I trust myself. The info I “We trust ourselves.”

used was my own report We would not evacuate ever
using the internet. to the mainland.
Unless you have family over
Stafford, Boat captain and there to stay with.
Volunteer Fire and Rescue.
IDENTIFIED PSYCHOLOGICAL BIASES
OVERCONFIDENCE BIAS
Overestimating our ability to control future
“I trust myself.”
outcomes and neglecting chance. I would not trust an
evacuation order. We had
Under estimating the probability of some
relevant event.
no faith in their instructions
whatsoever.

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“In previous
hurricanes we did
IDENTIFIED PSYCHOLOGICAL BIASES just fine, so this time
AVAILABILITY BIAS we thought we
would stay at home,
Interviewees make incorrect assumptions like we did before.”
about the upcoming threats based on partial
previous experiences during previous
hurricanes.

Connection with Loss Aversion. Also we Pastor Breslin

observe that previous losses in previous
hurricanes make people stay at home rather
than evacuating to a safer shelter.

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 Other Psychological Biases We Tested And Found
AVAILABILITY BIAS
➔ The availability heuristic, also
known as availability bias, is a
mental shortcut that relies on
immediate examples that
come to a given person's mind
when evaluating a specific
topic, concept, method or
decision.
HAZARD ANXIETY -
INFORMATION OVERLOAD
➔ People don't evacuate
because the information they
receive during evacuation
makes them anxious or
confuses them.
OPTIMISM BIAS
➔ People don't evacuate
because they think that future
events won't affect them.
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TRUST/LACK OF TRUST
➔ People evacuate when the
evacuation order is given by
someone they trust (ie: official
warnings) and/or when the
same message is repeated
from different sources.
AMNESIA BIAS
➔ People don't evacuate
because they didn't lose much
or they were not affected
during previous hurricanes
AFFECT HEURISTIC
➔ A type of mental shortcut in
which people make decisions
that are heavily influenced by
their current emotions..
SELF EFFICACY
➔ People don't evacuate
because they feel like don't
have personal capacity to act.
(Tip Burrows, pet shop)
LOSS AVERSION
➔ It’s the tendency to prefer
avoiding losses to acquiring
equivalent gains.
FAITH WORLDVIEWS
➔ People don't evacuate
because they think God will
protect them no matter where
they are.
AFFILIATION OR HERDING
BIAS
➔ People don't evacuate
because their friends,
neighbors and family don't
evacuate either
➔ Reinhold:
If everybody leaves, then I
might leave. If I could. I have a
residence in Florida, and
when people start packing up
everybody else does too.
➔ Gabe Swing:
“I think so. If people I trust and
respect evacuate, I would do
the same.”
 32

The information was

ok. The issue was
timing. It would be
better to
communicate the
plan much more in
ABOUT THE QUALITY OF
advance. Instead of
INFORMATION waiting until the day
before the storm.
Stafford
Local entrepreneur and boat captain

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“It’s hard to trust the

shelters”.
SHELTERS: A PROBLEM
Sarah, local NGO.
OF TRUST

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“I need more time

to explain to my
community that
they need to leave”.
PERSPECTIVES FROM THE
Pastor Breslin
HAITIAN COMMUNITY

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Even with what they told us, “Dorian changed everything in

we didn't have plans to move, terms of everyone’s desire to
I didn't take it seriously. evacuate from an approaching
They gave me the hurricane. Now almost
information and they came to everyone would evacuate the
my house. Next time I will island.”
take it more seriously, after
that experience in Dorian I Amapola
will not stay in any place that
is not solid.
AFTER DORIAN, First time I hear something
HURRICANE RISK like that coming, first step I
take if I could go to a different “Now we will leave. No

PERCEPTIONS CHANGED. island I take my family and I

leave. I don’t want to face that
question! Even if it's a tropical
storm.”
experience no more.
Gabe
Pastor Chris

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 Index
The Challenge
➔ Understanding behaviors during Hurricane Dorian 2019.
➔ Actors involved.
➔ Improving risk communications using Behavioral Science.

The Process
➔ Context, Research, Hypothesis, Interviews, Analysis, Findings.
➔ Semi-structured interviews with public officials and community representatives.
➔ Proposed psychological barriers and questions to analyze them during interviews.

Findings and lessons learnt

➔ Drivers of risk perceptions.
➔ 5 psychological biases.
➔ Recommendations to improve risk communications..

Interventions

➔ Personalizing content
➔ Decisions and emotions.
36 ➔ Make a plan online.
Improving communications to improve decision making
Anticipating cognitive biases Meyer & Kunreuther (2017)

BIAS MESSAGE PERSONALIZATION WHY

1. Overconfidence Engaging scientists and influencers to communicate To remind about the likelihood that losses may
high risk hurricane forecasts. occur from future hazards.

2. Status Quo Bias Use surprise and emotional messages to drive To revert the status quo bias when there is
action. uncertainty.

3. Single Option Bias Apply regular message rotations and change of To highlight all relevant factors when making
focus. choices involving risk.

4. Herding Highlighting good preparedness practices from To use the tendency to base choices on the
other communities. actions of others.

5. Myopia Helping people make an emergency plan at the To expand the future-time horizons and allow for
beginning of hurricane season. time to prepare.

6. Amnesia Sending reminders on the anniversary of major To revert the tendency to forget too quickly the
hurricanes. lessons of past disasters.
Changing the message focus: hierarchists

Profile: These people want well established

rules and procedures. More likely to rely on
technical assessments.

Messaging focus: Make rules, procedures and

technical planning salient.
Changing the message focus: egalitarians

Profile: These people tend to distrust

expertise, strongly react against any
“Government knows best” approach,
and demand public participation in
decisions.

Messaging focus: Demonstrate their

personal contribution to the community
if they take action.
Changing the message focus: individualists

Profile: These people see personal choice

and initiative as paramount. They need clear
evidence and individual benefit.

Messaging focus: Focus on protection of

personal assets and freedom of choice.
Changing the message focus: fatalists

Profile: These people tend to see attempts at

control as futile, and they are hard to engage
in dialogue.

Messaging focus: Show personal action as

having a positive outcome and offering
channels of dialogue.
Polls to detect and consider cognitive biases

Amnesia Herding Optimism

Inertia Myopia Simplification

Polls to measure hierarchism vs egalitarianism
Prompting people to make emergency plans
If you receive a hurricane alert,
how will you respond?
I will evacuate to a shelter.
I will go to a relative’s house.
I will leave the island.
Other (Specify)
● Prompting people to make concrete and specific plans makes them more likely to act. (Rogers et al., 2017).
What will you include in your
emergency kit?
Food and water for 3 days
Sleeping bags and warm blankets
Flashlight and extra batteries
First-aid kit and medicines
How will you protect your home?
Making your home secure
Cover windows
Protect important documents
Make arrangements for pets and
livestock
Trim branches from trees
Online emergency plans
Online emergency plans en español
Online emergency plans
Online emergency plans
Online emergency plans
Online emergency plans
Online emergency plans: analyzing data
Online emergency plans: keeping in touch
 54

Risk communications depends on a

shared understanding of how others regard risk.

(Arvai & Rivers, 2014)

54
We welcome your feedback

● Send us your feedback. We will send you a short survey.

● Interested in the online emergency plan?

● Interested in embedding behavioral science in your communications and

public policy?

● Interested in using the Disaster Fighters materials?

Feel free to reach out: emiliano@pacifico.la

Questions?
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Creative communications informed by behavioral science

www.pacifico.la