MPA-003: Risk Assessment and Vulnerability Analysis

(TMA)
Course Code: MPA-003
Assignment Code: Asst/TMA/2019
Marks 50
This assignment consists of Sections I and II. There are five questions in each section.
You have to answer a total of five questions in about 400 words each. It is necessary to
attempt at least two questions from each section. Each question carries 10 marks.
Section-I
1) Define vulnerability and discuss major vulnerability factors. 10
2) Define Risk and describe Risk Estimation. 10
3) Discuss the role of Science and Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction. 10
4) Write a note on Earthquake Risk Assessment. 10
5) Analyse the significance of Community Based Risk Assessment. 10
Section-II
6) ‘Poverty and Vulnerability are correlated’. Discuss. 10
7) Discuss major issues in Urban Planning. 10
8) ‘Write a note on System Vulnerability’. 10
9) Discuss socio-economic aspects of survival through risk assessment. 10
10) ‘Hazard resistant designs and construction reduce risks’. Discuss. 10

Answers
Section-I
1) Define vulnerability and discuss major vulnerability factors.
Ans.: Vulnerability in this context can be defined as the diminished capacity of an individual
or group to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural or man-made
hazard. The concept is relative and dynamic. Vulnerability is most often associated with
poverty, but it can also arise when people are isolated, insecure and defenceless in the face of
risk, shock or stress.
People differ in their exposure to risk as a result of their social group, gender, ethnic or other
identity, age and other factors. Vulnerability may also vary in its forms: poverty, for example,
may mean that housing is unable to withstand an earthquake or a hurricane, or lack of
preparedness may result in a slower response to a disaster, leading to greater loss of life or
prolonged suffering.

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The reverse side of the coin is capacity, which can be described as the resources available to
individuals, households and communities to cope with a threat or to resist the impact of a
hazard. Such resources can be physical or material, but they can also be found in the way a
community is organized or in the skills or attributes of individuals and/or organizations in the
community.
There are four (4) main types of vulnerability:
1. Physical Vulnerability may be determined by aspects such as population density
levels, remoteness of a settlement, the site, design and materials used for critical
infrastructure and for housing (UNISDR).
2. Social Vulnerability refers to the inability of people, organizations and societies to
withstand adverse impacts to hazards due to characteristics inherent in social
interactions, institutions and systems of cultural values. It is linked to the level of well
being of individuals, communities and society. It includes aspects related to levels of
literacy and education, the existence of peace and security, access to basic human
rights, systems of good governance, social equity, positive traditional values, customs
and ideological beliefs and overall collective organizational systems (UNISDR).
3. Economic Vulnerability. The level of vulnerability is highly dependent upon the
economic status of individuals, communities and nations The poor are usually more
vulnerable to disasters because they lack the resources to build sturdy structures and
put other engineering measures in place to protect themselves from being negatively
impacted by disasters.
4. Environmental Vulnerability. Natural resource depletion and resource degradation are
key aspects of environmental vulnerability.
Vulnerability describes the characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset
that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard. There are many aspects of
vulnerability, arising from various physical, social, economic, and environmental factors.
Examples may include:
 poor design and construction of buildings,
 inadequate protection of assets,
 lack of public information and awareness,
 limited official recognition of risks and preparedness measures, and
 disregard for wise environmental management.
People differ in their exposure to risk as a result of their social group, gender, ethnic or other
identity, age and other factors. Vulnerability may also vary in its forms: poverty, for example,
may mean that housing is unable to withstand an earthquake or a hurricane, or lack of
preparedness may result in a slower response to a disaster, leading to greater loss of life or
prolonged suffering.
The reverse side of the coin is capacity, which can be described as the resources available to
individuals, households and communities to cope with a threat or to resist the impact of a

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hazard. Such resources can be physical or material, but they can also be found in the way a
community is organized or in the skills or attributes of individuals and/or organizations in the
community.
2) Define Risk and describe Risk Estimation.
Ans.: Disasters are sometimes considered external shocks, but disaster risk results from the
complex interaction between development processes that generate conditions of exposure,
vulnerability and hazard. Disaster risk is therefore considered as the combination of the
severity and frequency of a hazard, the numbers of people and assets exposed to the hazard,
and their vulnerability to damage (UNISDR, 2015a). Intensive risk is disaster risk associated
with low-probability, high-impact events, whereas extensive risk is associated with high-
probability, low-impact events.
Disaster risk has many characteristics. In order to understand disaster risk, it is essential to
understand that it is:
 Forward looking the likelihood of loss of life, destruction and damage in a given
period of time
 Dynamic: it can increase or decrease according to our ability to reduce vulnerability
 Invisible: it is comprised of not only the threat of high-impact events, but also the
frequent, low-impact events that are often hidden
 Unevenly distributed around the earth: hazards affect different areas, but the pattern
of disaster risk reflects the social construction of exposure and vulnerability in
different countries
 Emergent and complex: many processes, including climate change and globalized
economic development, are creating new, interconnected ris
The key to understanding disaster risk is by recognizing that disasters are an indicator of
development failures, meaning that disaster risk is a measure of the sustainability of
development. Hazard, vulnerability and exposure are influenced by a number of risk drivers,
including poverty and inequality, badly planned and managed urban and regional
development, climate change and environmental degradation.

UNDP defines risk as the probability of harmful consequences — casualties, damaged

property, lost livelihoods, disrupted economic activity, and damage to the environment —
resulting from interactions between natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable
conditions. Risk assessment is a process to determine the nature and extent of such risk, by
analyzing hazards and evaluating existing conditions of vulnerability that together could
potentially harm exposed people, property, services, livelihoods and the environment on
which they depend. A comprehensive risk assessment not only evaluates the magnitude and
likelihood of potential losses but also provides full understanding of the causes and impact of
those losses. Risk assessment, therefore, is an integral part of decision and policy-making
processes and requires close collaboration among various parts of society.

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Disaster Risk assessment is a process to determine the nature and extent of such risk, by
analyzing hazards and evaluating existing conditions of vulnerability that together could
potentially harm exposed people, property, services, livelihoods and the environment on
which they depend. In this way, informed decisions can be made regarding steps to reduce
the impacts of disasters.

A comprehensive risk assessment not only evaluates the magnitude and likelihood of
potential losses in case of a disaster but also provides full understanding of the causes and
impact of those losses. DRA is an integral part of the decision making process. It therefore
needs to engage multi-stakeholders from various disciplines and requires close cooperation
and collaboration of different organizations and institutions of the target area.

Risk Assessment (RA) consists of the following steps:

1. Hazard Assessment: In this section the researcher identifies the types of hazards that
have occurred in the area in the past or can occur in the future. This is usually the first
step which then defines other steps because for each hazard, different tools and
techniques are used for analysis and assessment. Earthquakes, for example, require
different instruments and specializations for analysis than e.g. landslides or floods.
The next steps are to find the frequency, seasonality, magnitude, intensity, extent and
causes of the occurrence of hazards.
2. Vulnerability Assessment: This step is performed to determine the elements at risk,
degree of vulnerability and the causes of the elements at risk. All elements (people,
building, resources etc) which are prone to the hazard are identified and an inventory
is prepared. Then the degree of their vulnerability is analysed and causes of their
vulnerability are determined. Critical facility analysis is also performed by
determining the critical facilities (that play major role in daily routine life e.g. schools,
hospitals, mosques, civic centers etc.) at risk, causes of their vulnerabilities and
analyzing historical records of hazard occurence in the identified facilities.
3. Capacity Assessment: Capacity assessment means to identify the strengths and
resources available to reduce the level of risk, or the effects of a disaster. In this step,
resources of a community are evaluated by analyzing the available strengths like
skills, expertise, equipment, infrastructure etc. Then the availabilty of these reources
is evaluated to know how soon these resources can be deployed and become available
to use. Another important step is to find out how durable and long lasting these
resources are and what is the level of their operational integrity (Ability to complete
tasks without supervision).
4. People's perception of Risk: The process of finding out the perceptions of
heterogeneous groups in the community regarding the disasters, hazards and risks that
they are facing.

3) Discuss the role of Science and Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction.

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Ans.: A disaster is an event or series of events that leads to sudden disruption of normal life,
causing severe damage to life and property to an extent, that available social and economic
protection mechanism are inadequate to cope.
Disasters could be, natural (geological, hydro-meteorological and biological) or induced by
human processes (environmental degradation and technological hazards).
While we cannot prevent an earthquake or a hurricane from occurring, or a volcano from
erupting, we can apply the scientific knowledge and technical know-how to issue early
warnings on volcanoes and cyclones and organize proper community response to such
warnings.
Science and technology help us to understand the mechanism of natural hazards of
atmospherical, geological, hydrological, and biological origins which are made up of an
orderly system of facts that have been learned from study, experiments, and observations of
floods, severe storms, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis, and their
impacts on humankind and his works. The scientific and technological disciplines which are
involved include basic and engineering sciences, natural, social and human sciences. They
relate to the hazard environment (i.e., hydrology, geology, geophysics, seismology,
volcanology, meteorology, and biology), to the built environment (i.e., engineering,
architecture, and materials), and to the policy environment ( i.e., sociology, humanities,
political sciences, and management science).
There are mainly applications we can use to manage disasters:
GIS and remote sensing: GIS provides a tool for effective and efficient storage and
manipulation of remotely sensed data and other spatial and non-spatial data types for both
scientific management and policy oriented information. This can be used to facilitate
measurement, mapping, monitoring and modeling of variety of data types related to natural
phenomenon.
The specific GIS application in the field of Risk Assessment are:- Hazard Mapping to show
earthquake, landslides, floods or fire hazards. Theses map could be created for cities, districts
or even for the entire country and Tropical Cyclone Threat Maps are used by meteorological
departments to improve the quality of the tropical storm warning services and quickly
communicate the risk to the people likely to get affected by the cyclone.
Remote sensing makes observation of any object from a distance Remote sensing comprises
Aerial Remote Sensing which is the process of recording information, such as photographs
and images from sensor on aircrafts and Satellite Remote Sensing which consists of several
satellite remote sensing system which can be used to integrate natural hazard assessments
into development planning studies. These are: Land sat, SPOT Satellite, Satellite Radar
System, Advanced Very High Resolution Radio.
GIS can also be used in carrying out search and rescue operations in a more effective manner
by identifying areas that are disasters prone and zoning them accordingly to risk magnitudes.

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Internet: In the present era of electronic communication, the internet provides a useful
platform for disaster mitigation communications. Launching of a well-defined website is a
very cost-effective means of making an intra-national and international presence felt. It
provides a new and potentially revolutionary option for the rapid, automatic, and global
dissemination of disaster information. A number of individuals and groups, including several
national meteorological services, are experimenting with the Internet for real-time
dissemination of weather observation, forecasts, satellite and other data. In the most critical
phase of natural disasters electronic communication have provided the most effective and in
some instances perhaps the only means of communication with the outside world.
Warning and forecasting system: An advance system of forecasting, monitoring and
issuing early warnings plays the most significant role in determining whether a natural hazard
will assume disastrous proportions or not.
IMD provides cyclone warnings from the Area Cyclone Warning Centers (ACWCs) It has
developed the necessary infrastructure to originate and disseminate the cyclone warnings at
appropriate levels. It has made operational a satellite based communication system called
Cyclone Warning Dissemination System for direct dissemination of cyclone warnings to the
cyclone prone coastal areas.
Flood forecasts and warnings are issued by the Central Water Commission (CWC) , Ministry
of Water Resources. These are used for alerting the public and for taking appropriate
measures by concerned administrative and state engineering agencies in the flood hazard
mitigation. Information is gathered from the CWC's vast network of Forecasting Stations on
various rivers in the country
Section-II
6) ‘Poverty and Vulnerability are correlated’. Discuss.
Ans.: While poverty defines the current status of a person or household, vulnerability, in the
context of development cooperation, generally describes the risk of sliding into extreme
poverty, or existing poverty exacerbating, when external shocks occur or the environmental
conditions worsen. Closely linked to vulnerability is the concept of resilience – the ability of
people to protect themselves from the negative impacts of worsening underlying conditions
and shocks, and accordingly, mitigating the effects of poverty after a risk has occurred.
Measuring vulnerability precisely from a conceptual and factual perspective is difficult,
which is why there is no internationally standardised method. Most suggestions, similar to
monetary-based definitions of poverty, are aligned with income curves as proxy indicators.
For instance, some experts advocate the position that alongside those on a low income, a
certain percentage of people (e.g. 20%) above the national poverty line should be classified as
vulnerable.
However, practice shows that the ability of individuals to defend themselves against external
shocks without suffering major damage is, on the whole, determined by how far the income
of the affected person is above the poverty line. This is why most experts define a

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"vulnerability income line" not only to identify the poor, but also to identify groups
susceptible to poverty within a society. How far this line should be above the poverty line is a
disputed topic. The discussed proposals range from between USD 4 and USD 10 per day, and
some are even greater.
Poverty and vulneability are not the same, but poor people are often most likely more
vulnerable tahn non-poor. Vulnerability refers to future events and how easily people can
deal with them. Even rich people have all sorts of baseline vulnerabilities, but of course
having resources is always helpful to overcome vulnerability. Gender is an important
dimension of vulnerability. Often female as seen as vulnerable groups, either because they
are dependent or their status in society is subordinate to men' s status.
A household’s vulnerability to poverty at any point in time depends on how its livelihood
prospects and well-being is likely to evolve over time. And that in turn depends on its future
income prospects, the degree of income volatility it faces, its ability to smooth consumption
in the face of income or other livelihood shocks. These in turn depend on the complex
dynamic interlinkages between the environment–macroeconomic, institutional, sociopolitical
and physical–in which the household operates, the resources, human, physical and financial it
commands, and its behavioral responses.
Poverty and vulnerability (to poverty) are two sides of the same coin. The observed poverty
level or status of a household (defined simply in terms of a household’s observed level of
consumption expenditure relative to a pre-selected poverty line) is the ex-post realization of a
random variable, the ex-ante expectation of which can be taken to be the household’s level of
vulnerability.
7) Discuss major issues in Urban Planning.
Ans.: Urban Planning is a technical and political process concerned with the development
and use of land, protection and use of the environment, public welfare, and the design of the
urban environment, including air, water, and the infrastructure passing into and out of urban
areas, such as transportation, communications, and distribution networks.
The basic concern of city-town planning is the internal form, structure, function, and
appearance of urban areas. Physical aspects such as buildings, roads, land use, etc., play an
important role in urban planning, at the same time social, economic and technological forces
should also be considered while planning so that a healthy environment is created in the
city/town.
But in reality, the basic concern of city-town planning is the internal form, structure, function
and appearance of urban areas. Physical aspects such as buildings, roads, land use, etc., play
an important role in urban planning, at the same time social, economic and technological
forces should also be considered while planning so that a healthy environment is created in
the city/town. Apart from this problem, some factors also complicate the task of planning.
1. Individual Control or Small Parcels of Land: Within the city limits, both the
government and the private parties including individual owned small parcels of land

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 exist. Although wide variations occur from one city to another, individuals own much
less area of land, but when all these small landowners are put together the collective
land ownership comes to more than half of the total urban land. They may own the
land in the form of residences, stores, factories, commercial centres including rec-
reational centre, and vacant land. The government generally owns the remaining land
in the form of public property. It might be in the form of public streets, parks,
playgrounds, schools, government buildings, railroads, commercial recreation
facilities and unoccupied land.
2. Arbitrary Political Boundaries: Effective urban planning requires that the city/town
be dealt with as an integrated natural unit. An adequate plan covers not only the built-
up area of the city but also parts of the unoccupied hinterland, which need to be
controlled in order to secure both orderly future growth of the city/town and
reasonable protection of its residents.
3. Irregularity of Environmental Site: Every city/town occupies a unique
environmental site, hills, valleys, rivers, waterfronts, or any other physical features
make one city/town look different from another. As an effective urban plan has to
take into account all these unique features, the concrete plan of every city/town differs
from all the other cities.
4. Heritage of Past Construction: With few exceptions, most of the cities of the town
have grown without the early guidance of comprehensive city plans. Some which
have grown, based on plan, have now outgrown their earlier designs. Consequently,
most city planners have dealt primarily with built-up urban areas characterized by the
established patterns of streets, transportation lines and buildings. Under these
conditions, their work has been greatly limited and modified by the almost
overwhelming heritage of past construction.
5. Anticipation of Future Change: The city planner cannot exactly say the future
changes that may affect the city. But he can anticipate some of the changes and
provide for it in the plan. These may turn out to be inadequate in the long run. Thus, a
planner in trying to anticipate the future needs as related to the spatial pattern of the
city faces exceptional difficulties because he/she cannot always foresee new
inventions or their effects. For example, unlike in the past, people now move in
different types of automobiles, which the urban planner could not have anticipated
about 50 years ago.