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José Moya
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya
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DETERMINACIÓN DE UMBRALES
PLUVIOMÉTRICOS PARA LA REACTIVACIÓN DE
GRANDES DESLIZAMIENTOS MEDIANTE
CURVAS ROC
Determination of rainfall thresholds to reactivate large landslides by means of ROC curves
Abstract: Rainfall is a well known trigger of landslides in many regions in the world. Many previously
published studies have focused on determining the critical rainfall threshold responsible for the slope failures
occurrence and/or landslide reactivations. However, establishing rainfall thresholds is difficult when the
exact date of the failure is unknown. In the Tremp Basin (Eastern Pyrenees), dendrogeomorphology has been
used to identify recent landslide events with an accuracy of a year and a ROC curve analysis has been
performed in order to define possible rainfall thresholds. Even though a direct relationship between the
accumulated rainfall and landslide occurrence has not been found, the contingency tables prepared using
different threshold rainfall values have allowed the establishment of a relationship between the daily rainfall
and the antecedent rain. The lack of a full predictive capability of the threshold indicates that this must be
refined and validated with additional data.
30d 202mm
0.6
5d 100mm Ac = 32D+100
40d 252mm
0.6
10d 142mm 61d 290mm
35d 248mm
45d 295mm Ac = 25D+120
0.4
3d 80mm
0.4
20d 208mm
Ac = 32D+133
5d 130mm 0.2
0.2
40mm lluvia desencadenante
30mm lluvia desencadenante
0