[번역과제 AB]

[1]

유가는 러시아발 공급차질 우려 심화로 급등, 3 월초 배럴당 120 달러대를 돌파한 이후 공급차질 완화 기대감, 중국 등
수요위축 우려 등으로 하락하여 4 월말 배럴당 100 달러 중반대 기록

’22 년 1 분기 석유수요는 계절적 비수기 영향 등으로 ’21.4 분기 대비 약 148 만 b/d 감소한 9,895 만 b/d, 석유공급은 OPEC+
감산 완화, 유가 상승에 따른 非 OPEC 지역의 생산량 회복 등으로 전분기 대비 69 만 b/d 증가한 9,899 만 b/d 기록

2022 년 평균유가는 전년평균 대비 배럴당 29.75 달러 상승한 $97.96/bbl, 천연가스 가격은 전년 대비 mmBtu 당 1.32 달러
상승한 5.23 달러 전망

[2]

2016 년 국제 원유시장은 석유수요가 예년보다 높은 증가세를 보이고 저유가와 자본투자 축소로 미국의 셰일오일 등 비 OPEC
생산이 감소하면서 공급 과잉 규모가 축소되는 모습을 보임.

2016 년 두바이유 가격은 전년($50.69/배럴)보다 18% 하락한 연평균 $41.41/배럴을 기록했지만, 1 월의 $26.86/배럴에서 12
월의 $52.08/배럴로 연중 지속적인 상승 추세를 보임.

- 국제 원유가격이 상승세를 보인 것은 미국의 셰일오일 등 비 OPEC 의 생산 감소에 따른 공급 과잉 완화와 함께 하반기 들어

산유국들의 감산 논의가 진행된 것이 주요인이었음.

- 반면에 제재 해제에 따른 이란의 원유수출 증가와 주요 산유국들의 시장 점유율 확보 경쟁, 석유재고 누적, 세계경제의
불확실성 등은 추가적인 유가 상승을 억제하는 요인이었음.

2017 년 두바이유 가격은 산유국들의 감산 이행과 견조한 석유수요 증가로 상승할 것으로 전망되나 누적된 석유재고와 달러화
강세로 상승폭이 제한되어 전년 대비 32% 상승한 $54.61/배럴로 전망됨.

[번역과제 BA]

[1]

The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) eased by 1.2% month-on-month (m-o-m) in June to average $73.22/b. The ORB ended 1H18
higher at $68.43/b, up more than 36% since the start of the year. Similarly, Dated Brent, WTI and Dubai all decreased by 3.5%,
3.1% and 0.8%, respectively. Crude oil futures prices mostly fell on expectations that OPEC and participating non-OPEC
producers in the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ will gradually increase production to full conformity levels. ICE Brent averaged
$1.07 (1.4%) lower at $75.94/b in June m-o-m, while NYMEX WTI lost $2.66 (3.8%) to average $67.32/b. Similarly, DME Oman
decreased by 97¢ (1.36%) to stand at $73.63/b. The Brent/WTI spread widened further to $8.62/b in June m-o-m. Year-to-date,
ICE Brent is 35.1% higher at $71.16/b, while NYMEX WTI has risen 31.1% to $65.46/b, compared to the same period a year
earlier. The speculative net long positions ended June higher, particularly NYMEX WTI, with the long to short ratio increasing
sharply to 21:1 from 7:1. All three markets have returned to a strong backwardation, with that of WTI improving significantly on
tighter supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma.

[2]

The oil market is getting tight and Brent crude breached $85/bbl in early October for the first time since 2014. Demand growth
has been robust at 1.5 MMbpd y/y through the first half of 2018 and is expected to grow by a strong 1.6 MMbpd next year. The
US shale patch satiated nearly all this new demand—pumping 1.8 MMbpd more through the first half of 2018—but looks set to
slow to nearer 1 MMbpd in 2019 as drilling drifts into less prolific acreage and infrastructure constraints limit profitability. Within
OPEC, Venezuelan production continues to collapse (-650 kbpd y/y) and Iranian exports are rapidly falling off (-1 MMbpd by
year-end) in the face of renewed US sanctions. All this leaves considerable weight on the shoulders of Saudi Arabia, which holds
virtually all of the OPEC’s spare capacity. We expect Saudi Arabia to largely rise to the challenge, contributing enough supply to
maintain market stability but not as many barrels are needed to close the supply gap completely.

Global oil balances are expected to remain in a mild deficit of 200 kbpd in 2019, slightly less than the 500–600 kbpd deficits
averaged over 2017–18 but with less of an inventory cushion. Prices are expected to remain well-supported through 2020, though
a forecast surplus in 1Q19 and an anticipated rebalancing of overextended bullish positioning are expected to keep us from
sustainably breaking above$90/bbl. Brent oil prices are forecast to average $80/bbl in 2019 before gradually falling back to
$75/bbl in 2020. WTI differentials are expected to remain wide given chronic infrastructure bottlenecks, averaging $72/bbl in
2019 and $69/bbl in 2020. On top of WTI’s challenges, Canadian heavy crude is forecast to trade at a wider discount through
2020, with WCS contracts expected to average $24/bbl under WTI in 2019 as oil-by-rail services ramp up before narrowing to
$21/bbl in 2020 as Line 3 enters service.