56 Libya After Qaddafi

Figure 4.1
Recovery and Decline of Libya’s Daily Oil Production, 2010–2013

2,000
1,800
Average daily oil production

1,600
(in thousands of barrels)

1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
SOURCE: U.S. Energy Information Administration, “International Energy Statistics,”
data files on global oil production, 2013.
RAND RR577-4.1

revenue.5 Given this dependence on hydrocarbons for current account

and fiscal balance, the rapid return of oil production was very impor-
tant and may be acknowledged as a welcome success—though not one
that was particularly difficult to achieve.

The Oil “Curse” and Libya’s Political Economic Challenges

If Libya’s oil wealth offers benefits in its post-conflict reconstruction,

it also poses long-term risks, especially when it comes to building last-
ing democratic political institutions. When a country’s oil wealth is
large and controlled by the state, there are significant incentives for
corruption and state capture by individual groups. In many cases, this

5 Chami et al., 2012; Mohsin Khan and Karim Mezran, “The Libyan Economy After the
Revolution: Still No Clear Vision,” Atlantic Council Issue Brief, August 28, 2013.