e-Prime - Advances in Electrical Engineering, Electronics and Energy 1 (2021) 100002

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e-Prime - Advances in Electrical Engineering, Electronics and

Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/prime

Present and future energy consumption of buildings: Challenges and

opportunities towards decarbonisation
M. Santamouris a,∗, K. Vasilakopoulou b
a
Distinguished Professor, Anita Lawrence Chair High Performance Architecture, School Built Environment, University of New South Wales, Sydney Australia
b
Home Modifications Information Clearinghouse, School of the Built Environment, Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture, UNSW, Sydney, Australia

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Keywords: The present article aims to present and discuss the energy and environmental reality in the building sector and
Buildings critically investigate the future pathways towards its decarbonisation. The current economic and employment
Energy characteristics as well as the energy, environmental, climate and social impact of the building sector are anal-
Environmental quality
ysed. The main current and future challenges related to overpopulation, climate change, urbanisation, energy
Climate change
consumption, material use and poverty are explored and evaluated. The recent building energy technological
Overpopulation
developments are explored and their current and future energy, environmental and economic potential is as-
sessed. The main drivers determining the future energy consumption of the building sector are examined and
their expected evolution is analysed. Representative scenarios on the future energy consumption are selectively
presented. The proposed pathways towards the decarbonisation of the building sector are critically presented and
the main advantages and potential problems are depicted.

1. Introduction – the impact of the building sector on the global
economy and society
Buildings and communities protect the health and wellbeing of hu-
mans. The built environment is not just a collection of buildings though,
but the physical expression and manifestation of numerous economic,
social, and environmental processes strongly related to the human ac-
tivities and the changing needs of the society [1].
Building construction is one of the most dynamic economic sectors,
generating wealth and income and contributing highly to the global de-
velopment. Financial and commercial activities related to construction,
renovation and management of buildings, development of infrastruc-
ture and of urban projects, and extension of assets currently represent a
budget close to 9 trillion US dollars (HIS, 2O13), which is expected to
increase up to 11 trillion US Dollars by 2023 [2] and up to 15 trillion US
Dollars by 2025 [3]. Most of the investments are directed to the residen-
tial sector, with 70% of the total budget spent by the public sector, 26%
are private investments and the rest is covered by official development
assistance sources [4].
The construction growth rate during 2019 and 2020 was 2.6% in-
stead of the predicted 3.2%, a slowdown associated with the COVID19
pandemic and the decrease of the related construction activities in North
America, Europe and China [5]. Buildings and construction accounts for
about 13% of the world gross domestic product (GDP) and it is expected
to rise up to 15% in the near future [3,5]. About half of the construction
output is generated by developing countries and emerging economies
facing a significant population increase, urbanisation and rising living
standards, like India, China and Brazil [6].
Building construction is the second most important employment sec-
tor after agriculture [7]. About 110 million people are employed directly
in construction activities [6], equivalent to 7–10% of the actual work-
force [8,9]. Counting in the non-declared workers, the figure increases
to 180 million [4]. About 75% of the workforce in the developing coun-
tries works under undeclared conditions. In India, about 97% of women
and 89% of men working in the construction sector are considered em-
ployees under informal status [10]. In USA, the construction of a new
building generates 2.97 new jobs, 32% of which are created in the global
economy (Emrath, 2014). In addition to the direct employment capac-
ity of the building sector, more than 220 million of employees of other
sectors depend on construction growth and activities, such as materials
manufacturing [8]. Employment in the construction sector is very sensi-
tive and is highly affected by local and global events. It is characteristic
that because of the COVID19 pandemic, about 25 million workers lost
or were at risk of losing their jobs [5].
The present article aims to present and discuss the current charac-
teristics of the building sector and its impact on energy, environmental
quality and economic and social status, to depict the existing phenom-
ena, problems, and opportunities, to analyse future trends, synergies and
challenges and critically investigate the potential pathways towards a
partial or full decarbonisation of the building sector.

∗
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: m.santamouris@unsw.edu.au (M. Santamouris).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prime.2021.100002
Received 19 August 2021; Accepted 6 October 2021
2772-6711/© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
M. Santamouris and K. Vasilakopoulou
2. Main challenges in the built environment
The building sector is facing serious economic, environmental, tech-
nical, and social challenges caused mainly by the unprecedent global
and regional climate change, overpopulation, intensive urbanisation, ex-
cessive use of resources and social inequalities. The potential responses
to these challenges and the policies to follow will shape the present and
future quality of life of several billion people and will define to a great
extend the future socioeconomic pathways and the magnitude of the
global growth. We consider that the major challenges and potential fu-
ture opportunities in the built environment are the ones described in the
following paragraphs.
Overpopulation and Fast Urbanisation: According to the United Na-
tions [11], the world population may increase up to 11 billion peo-
ple by 2050, with most of the new population living in cities, increas-
ing the urban population up to 6.5 billion people. Most of the urban
growth is expected in Asia and less developed countries and may se-
riously challenge the capacity of the building sector to meet the addi-
tional needs for new housing, commercial and community buildings and
infrastructures.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Global Climate Change: The build-
ing and construction sector accounted for about 39% of the process re-
lated carbon dioxide emissions in 2018 [5]. Subject to the degree of the
current and future decarbonisation of the building energy needs and of
the power generation system capacity dedicated to buildings (which is
almost 50% today), the building sector may achieve to be carbon neutral
by 2050 or later, or may continue to be carbon intensive.
Urban Overheating and Local Climate Change: Intensive urbanisa-
tion and industrialisation result in considerable increase of the ambient
temperature in cities. The phenomenon, known as Urban Heat Island
(UHI), is well documented in more than 450 cities around the world
[12]. The magnitude of urban overheating may be as high as 10 °C with
an average value close to 5 °C [13]. Higher urban temperatures have a
very serious effect on the energy consumption of urban buildings, while
impacting the environmental quality of cities, urban health and surviv-
ability levels [14]. Design and implementation of advanced mitigation
and adaptation policies in cities may significantly counterbalance the
impact of urban overheating while continuation of the current urban
practices may further intensify the urban climatic, environmental, en-
ergy, public health, economic and social problems.
High Energy Consumption: The buildings and construction sector ac-
counts for about 36% of the global energy consumption. Accounting the
energy spent for construction and demolition, the energy share is in-
creasing up to 50% of the total energy consumption [15]. Despite the
significant energy conservation measures undertaken by the developed
countries, the energy demand of buildings increased more than 20% be-
tween 2000 and 2017, as a result of the rapidly growing floor area of
dwellings, the relatively small reduction of the energy intensity and the
rising energy requirements of the energy services [16]. Future scenarios
on the energy consumption of buildings propose pathways to minimize
the energy consumption of the sector by 2050 or later, through inten-
sive use of clean electricity and improved energy efficiency measures
in buildings. However, such an objective requires adoption of intensive
green policies and a considerable increase of investments. No clear en-
gagements or even promises towards the adoption of such policies are
undertaken and there is a real risk that the energy consumption and the
production of greenhouse gases of the building sector will continue to
increase.
High Global Environmental Impact: The building sector has a con-
siderable impact on the global environment. The sector produces pollu-
tion and waste and consumes resources and raw materials. Future decar-
bonisation of the building sector is also associated with an extensive ad-
ditional use of raw materials. Increase of the manufacturing efficiency,
recycling, and attachment to the principles of circular economy seems
to be a reasonable policy, however, it is an open and difficult challenge
for the construction sector.
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e-Prime - Advances in Electrical Engineering, Electronics and Energy 1 (2021) 100002
Social inequalities, Poverty and Ethical Issues: Provision of healthy
and adequate shelter for everyone is a difficult challenge for the build-
ing sector, when there is more than 1 million people living in slums
[17], and the number is constantly increasing. In parallel, more than
150 million people in the developed countries cannot afford to cover
their basic energy needs. Eradication of poverty and energy poverty re-
quires the implementation of generous, well-designed housing programs
to enhance resilience in the corresponding countries and amortize social
inequalities.
2.1. The impact of overpopulation and fast urbanisation on the building
sector
According to the forecasts of the United Nations [11], the global
population, which was 7.6 billion in 2019, will grow to a number be-
tween 9.4 and 10.1 billion in 2050, with a more probable value close to
9.7 billion. Most of this increase of population will occur in developing
countries. Urban population is expected to grow to 66% of the total pop-
ulation by 2050 from the current value of 54% equivalent to another 2.5
billion people by 2050. Most of the new urban population will be in In-
dia, China and in some African countries like Nigeria. As mentioned by
the United Nations [11], India is projected to add 404 million dwellers,
China 292 million and Nigeria 212 million by 2050 to the global urban
population. Not surprisingly, the world rural population is expected to
decline from the actual 3.4 billion to 3.1 billion by 2050.
Successful management of the urban population and satisfaction of
their basic needs on housing, infrastructures, environmental quality,
health, and energy provision, is a major challenge for the building and
construction sector. According to the latest statistics [5], there currently
is a shortfall of about 330 million homes in the world, and is expected
to increase up to 440 million by 2025. By 2030, the additional housing
needs will grow by more than 77 billion square meters of floor space
[16], equivalent or higher to the actual area of China. Forecasts report
that during the next 30 years the total floor area of buildings will in-
crease by 75%, or by more than 100% by 2070, adding a total floor
area equal to the city of Paris per week [18,19]. It is foreseen that more
than 225 billion square meters of floor area will be built in emerging
economies and mainly in India, Indonesia and Brazil [16], and new res-
idential buildings will count more than 80% of the additional floor area.
To satisfy the current climatic engagements, new buildings should
present an almost zero energy consumption while protecting the resi-
dents from extreme climatic events, promote resilience and guarantee
the health and the wellbeing of the population. Given that by 2050 the
world’s population over 60 years of age is expected to double [20], the
need for efficient public health protection is a necessity. Current energy
policies, building practices and economic conditions in the emerging
economy countries seriously reduce the expectations for the adoption
and implementation of adequate design and construction technologies
for the new local building stock. It is therefore highly probable that by
2050, building stock equal to 2.5 times the current Chinese building
stock, may present serious energy and environmental problems.
2.2. Greenhouse gas emissions and global climate change
In 2018, the buildings and construction sector accounted for about
39% of the process related and energy generated greenhouse gases, 11%
of which was caused by the industrial manufacturing of building ma-
terials like glass, steel and cement [21]. Direct emissions of CO2 that
resulted from the combustion of fossil fuels to satisfy thermal building
needs, space and water heating, cooking, accounted close to 3 GtCO2 .
The addition of the indirect emissions related to the consumption of
electricity in buildings increases the total figure to 9.8 GtCO2 , while the
manufacturing of building materials adds another 5 GtCO2 of emissions
[22]. The residential sector is the principal source of greenhouse emis-
sions accounting for about 60% of the total sector emissions, although
residential buildings represent almost 80% of the total buildings surface.
M. Santamouris and K. Vasilakopoulou
About 30% of the total residential emissions are a result of the direct use
of biomass for internal combustion purposes in the developing countries.
The share of the commercial buildings in the indirect CO2 emissions is
close to 43%, mainly because of the high electricity consumption of the
sector [16].
Despite the important improvement of the energy intensity by unit of
floor area, the total greenhouse gas emissions of the construction sector
have increased by 25% since the beginning of the 21st century. This is
due to the corresponding increase of the floor area by 65% and the as-
sociated rise of the electricity demand of buildings. In fact, since 2000,
the use of electricity in the building sector increased almost five times
faster than the corresponding improvements in the decarbonisation of
the electricity generation sector [16]. Meanwhile, the greenhouse emis-
sions from the materials’ production have increased considerably since
the beginning of the century representing almost 25% of the global
building emissions against 15% in 2000 ([23]. Production of steel is re-
sponsible for about 2.8 Gt CO2 eq, while manufacturing of glass, plaster
and cement is responsible for about 2.9 Gt CO2 eq [24].
The important rise of the greenhouse emissions of the building sec-
tor is not in line with the engagements under the Paris agreement and
no positive signs are visible in the horizon. It is characteristic that be-
tween 2017 and 2018 the greenhouse emissions increased by 2%, and
by 1.7% within 2018, reaching a record level. For the same period, the
corresponding energy consumption increase was close to 1% [5].
2.3. Urban overheating and local climate change
Regional climate change and urban overheating are the most doc-
umented phenomena of climate change. Higher temperatures in cities
are the result of the positive thermal balance compared to the surround-
ing suburban and rural environment. Heat is stored in the mass of the
buildings and the city structure, while anthropogenic heat generated by
industry, transport and buildings, lack of greenery and proper urban
ventilation further enhance the heat gains at city level [25]. As previ-
ously mentioned, urban overheating is experimentally documented in
more than 450 cities in the world. The magnitude of the overheating
varies as a function of the local thermal balance; however, an average
value is close to 5 °C [26]. Recent research shows that there are strong
synergies between the global climate change, heat waves, and local over-
heating. As reported by many studies, the amplitude of urban overheat-
ing is increasing considerably during extreme heat events, intensifying
the urban heat stress [27–30].
Higher urban temperatures seriously affect several sectors of human
activities. In particular, overheating increases the energy consumption
for cooling, decreases the efficiency of the thermal and nuclear power
plants, rises the peak electricity demand and obliges utilities to build
additional power plants, increases the concentration of harmful pollu-
tants, the ground level ozone in particular, limits the survivability level
of low-income population and increases heat related mortality and mor-
bidity. Several studies have documented the increase of the cooling de-
mand of buildings caused by the urban overheating [1,31–35]. Analysis
of numerous existing studies shows that urban overheating is inducing
an additional energy penalty at the city scale close to 0.74 kWh/m2 /°C,
while the average energy penalty per person, is close to 237 (±130)
kWh/p [36].
Higher ambient temperatures affect the peak electricity demand, as
well as the efficiency of thermal and nuclear power plants. It has been
found that the corresponding peak electricity rise per degree of tem-
perature increase varies between 0.45% and 4.6%, corresponding to an
additional electricity penalty close to 21Watts (±10.4) per degree of
temperature increase and per person [37]. Higher ambient temperatures
limit the electricity generation efficiency and increase the gas consump-
tion, affect the delivered power and challenge the reliability of supply
of thermal and nuclear plants [38]. More specifically, a 1 °C rise of the
ambient temperature increases the thermal efficiency losses consider-
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e-Prime - Advances in Electrical Engineering, Electronics and Energy 1 (2021) 100002
ably and may reduce the power output of thermal and nuclear power
stations by 0.6% [39].
Urban overheating is also associated with the quality of life and
the survivability levels of low-income population [12]. It is well doc-
umented that low-income and vulnerable populations live in deprived
areas with great overheating problems, while the thermal quality of their
housing is not appropriate [40]. Several surveys and projects have found
that because of the urban overheating, vulnerable and low-income pop-
ulation is highly exposed to extreme indoor temperatures, high pollu-
tion levels, while they have to consume up to 80% more electricity for
cooling [41].
Higher ambient urban temperatures also affect the concentration of
ground level ozone and particulate matter. Urban overheating is consid-
ered the main reason for concentrations above the accepted thresholds
[42], with future projections predicting an important rise of the ozone
concentration in cities.
It is widely known that the human thermoregulation system cannot
support exposure to very high ambient temperatures, which can result
in serious health problems and increase in heat related mortality and
morbidity [43]. It is characteristic that between 2000 and 2007 almost
59,114 people passed away during 52 extreme heat events around the
world [44]. Recent systematic analysis has found that population living
in warmer urban neighbourhoods have almost 6% higher mortality risk
compared to those living in cooler urban zones [45].
Development of efficient urban mitigation technologies, including
cool and super cool materials, greenery techniques, use of low temper-
ature ambient sinks and solar control systems can significantly reduce
the peak ambient temperature of cities [46]. Analyses of the mitigation
performance of several large-scale projects show that it is possible to
decrease the peak ambient temperature of cities up to 2.5 °C and reduce
considerably the levels of heat related mortality [47].
2.4. High energy consumption of the building sector
Buildings consume almost 151 EJ of energy, equivalent to 36% of the
world’s final energy consumption. Almost 130 EJ, or 30% of the global
energy consumption, is used for the operation of buildings and another
21 EJ is used for other construction services [5]. The building sector is
also responsible for about 55% of the global electricity use.
Despite the stabilisation of the buildings’ energy consumption dur-
ing the last two years caused by the COVID-19 pandemic -the first since
2012- the energy demand of the building sector increased more than
20% between 2000 and 2017 and 7% between 2010 and 2017. This
considerable raise was a result of the fast increasing floor area and
population, the rising demand for energy services and the limited im-
provements in energy efficiency [16]. The increase of the floor space
per household seems to be the main driver for the energy consump-
tion increase in the building sector. In fact, the floor area has increased
by 3% between 2017 and 2018 and more than 23% since 2010 [16],
while the residential occupancy rates are rapidly decreasing in both the
developed and emerging economies due to the income rise of part of
the population. Economic growth in developing countries increases the
use of air conditioning and appliances per person and rises the electric-
ity demand. In 2018 the combined impact of increasing floor area and
appliances ownership in the residential sector resulted in over 2% rise
of the energy demand, exceeding by far the reduction of the demand
by 0.7% caused by the improvements in energy efficiency. As a result
of the impact of these structural factors, the use of electricity between
2010 and 2018 has raised by 6.5 EJ or 19% [5].
Residential buildings are responsible for almost 70% of the energy
consumption of the sector. Between 2010 and 2018, the consumption
of the residential sector has increased by 5 EJ, mainly because of the
increase of the population and floor area per person, while the corre-
sponding increase of the commercial buildings was close to 3 EJ, mainly
caused by the increase of the floor area [5]. Space heating represents al-
most one third of the total consumption, namely 42 EJ and is the largest
M. Santamouris and K. Vasilakopoulou
energy end use [16]. Most of the heating demand is associated with
the Western developed countries, like USA and Europe. Because of the
important energy conservation measures taken in these countries, the
world heating energy consumption has not increased since 2000, de-
spite the addition of 30 billion square meters of new buildings built in
China, increasing the country’s heating demand by 4000 PJ or 10% [48].
Space cooling represents almost 6% of the total energy demand of
the sector, but it is the fastest growing end use with a growth rate close
to 33% between 2000 and 2018, and 5% between 2017 and 2018 [48].
Higher penetration of air conditioning increases the peak electricity de-
mand during the warm period and force utilities to build additional
power plants operating only for a limited time. It is characteristic that
while the average peak electricity cooling power demand from buildings
is close to 15%, in some countries it exceeds 50% during hot days [16].
Overpopulation, local and global climate change, increase of the pur-
chase capacity and higher floor spaces drive the very important growth
of the cooling demand [13]. Although ownership of air conditioning is
much higher in developed countries like USA and Japan, a fast pen-
etration of air condition is observed in emerging economy countries.
For example, during the last ten years, the residential cooling demand
in China has grown by 13% annually, from 15% in 2000 to 60% in
2017, reaching a total consumption close to 1400 petajoules (PJ) a year
[21]. However, ownership of air condition units is still low in warm
developing counties like in Africa or in India, not exceeding 3% of the
households. Estimates for the future cooling energy consumption show
that it may rise by 200% and up to 2000% by 2050, depending on the
evolution of the main economic and climatic drivers [13]. Higher pen-
etration of air conditioning increases the total energy consumption of
the sector; however, it may improve the productivity in buildings. As
mentioned, the working days that were lost due to the heat stress were
6.6 in developing countries, against 3.5 in developed countries [49].
The total energy consumption for lighting and appliances is close to
18 EJ and has grown by 2.2% per year between 2000 and 2017 [16].
Despite the improvement of the lighting energy intensity by 15%, due
to the extensive use of LED systems, the substantial rise of the specific
energy consumption is mainly driven by the developing emerging econ-
omy countries where the ownership of appliances has increased signif-
icantly. As reported, the ownership of appliances since 2000 has been
almost tripled in India and doubled in China and Indonesia [16].
Energy consumed for hot water accounts for about 24.3 EJ and
between 2000 and 2017 the consumption increased by 11%. Cooking
presents very similar energy consumption as water heating, with about
two thirds of the energy being provided by non-efficient biomass sys-
tems, and electricity counting only for 6% of the total consumption [16].
Progress on energy efficiency of the building sector is not in track
with the agreed requirements for decarbonisation as defined by IEA. In
2018, energy intensity has improved by 1.2%, much below the agreed
efficiency improvement rate of 3% to decarbonise the sector, and con-
siderably lower than the 2017 and 2000 levels, which were 1.7%, and
2.5% respectively. However, even the reduced improvement of the en-
ergy intensity has resulted in about $1.6 trillion of additional GDP for
the energy used compared to 2017 [16]. The final energy intensity per
square metre of building between 2015 and 2019 has changed from
330 kWh/m2 to 320 kWh/m2 , and was expected to further decrease up
to 300 kWh/m2 by 2025. The recession associated to the pandemic and
the decrease of the construction activities make this target uncertain [5].
Regarding the energy intensity improvements by end use, space heating
and lighting have improved by 20% and 17% respectively between 2000
and 2018. Between 2017 and 2018, the energy intensity for space heat-
ing improved by 2% and for lighting 1.4%, but it was reduced by 2.7%
for space cooling [5]. The above trends on energy efficiency were the
outcome of a total 2017 annual investment close to 140 billion USD,
half of which was spend for the tertiary sector [16]. Almost 85% of the
energy efficiency investments were in China, North America, and Eu-
rope. European countries invested almost 59 billion USD, 42% of the
investments, while China investments accounted for 27 billion USD and
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e-Prime - Advances in Electrical Engineering, Electronics and Energy 1 (2021) 100002
the rest 24% of the investments, was invested in North America. The
total 2017 incremental annual energy efficiency investments on build-
ings, transport and industry was close to 240 billion USD, however, it
is estimated that the necessary investments should rise up to 4 trillion
USD to achieve the target energy efficiency improvements of 3% per
year [16]. Investments have increased up to 152 and 180 billion USD
by 2019 and 2020 respectively, driven mainly by the delivery of an in-
creased number of low-energy buildings with efficiency above building
codes and by the energy efficiency retrofit of existing buildings, mainly
in Europe [50].
Total investments in energy efficiency represent a small part of the
total budget devoted to the building sector, reaching 5 trillion per year,
and a tiny part of the annual global real estate value, $217 trillion US
[51].
Evidently, the building sector is not on track with the required en-
ergy efficiency improvements and the corresponding decrease of energy
consumption. As the rate of energy efficiency improvements is lower
than the growth rate of the global construction investment, there is
only $1 spent on energy efficiency for $37 spent on the conventional
construction market [50]. As the rate of the annual energy efficiency
improvements is decreasing, urgent and efficient actions are needed by
all actors in the building sector to speed up the annual decarbonisation
of buildings by a factor of 5. It is promising that during the recent UN
Secretary General’s Climate Summit, countries were committed to pro-
vide almost 1 trillion USD to developing countries by 2030 to support
the Paris objectives towards a zero-carbon building future. Similar ini-
tiatives have been adopted by the private sector. For example, the Net-
Zero Asset Owner Alliance, composed by the most important insurers
and pension funds responsible for directing more than 2.4 trillion USD
in investments, has committed to carbon neutral investment portfolios
by 2050.
2.5. High global environmental impact
Apart from the greenhouse gas emissions, the building and construc-
tion sector causes a serious impact on the global environment. The spe-
cific environmental impact is related to the extraction, use and waste
of resources and the production, deposition, emission, and release of
solid, liquid, and gaseous pollutants. Building materials used in the ex-
isting stock include bricks, glass, concrete and asphalt, industrial wood,
ores, sand and gravel and raw primary materials to produce plastics
[52]. Used materials remain in the built environment until they are re-
moved, and are either reused, remanufactured, or used to produce sec-
ondary materials or become waste. Construction is responsible for the
40–50% of the total materials used to manufacture building products in
the world, equivalent to three billion tons of raw materials (SWCA En-
vironmental Consultants, no date), and materials production represents
56% of the carbon footprint of the construction and building sector [53].
Assessment of the total flow of materials used in the existing building
stock between 1900 and 2015 revealed that almost 961 billion tonnes
of materials were accumulated in stocks of manufactured capital [52].
amongst them about 33 Gt of metals, 15 Gt of wood, 3 Gt of plastics and
3 Gt of glass were included, while the rest were non-metallic minerals
like asphalt, concrete, bricks, sand and gravel [52]. On an annual basis,
construction is using about 43 gigatonnes (Gt) of minerals, equivalent
to about half of all resource extraction [5,52]. This includes, 0.6 Gt of
metals including steel, coper, aluminium and 4 Gt of cement [5,54,55].
A large quantity of virgin materials, like sand and unbound materials,
such as crushed slag and stone, concrete, or slate, is consumed by the
construction sector. It is characteristic that the annual use of sand is
close to 4 tonnes per person or 30 Gt in total [5,56].
In addition, the construction sector consumes almost 0.9 billion m3
or 70% of the timber products, 50% of the cement and 30% of the steel,
12% of the potable water. These construction materials are responsible
for 50% of the landfill wastes, as almost 40% of the construction mate-
M. Santamouris and K. Vasilakopoulou
rials is wasted, 25–33% of the emissions of black carbon, 20–25% of the
air pollutants and 70% of the halocarbons [5,57].
Construction materials represent a large part of the total global
waste. In Europe, construction and demolition materials including
wood, ceramics, bricks, concrete, etc., comprise about 30% of the total
waste [24]. Part of the wasted material, like metals, are partly recov-
ered and recycled, due to their high value, however, the required energy
consumption for the recycling is considerably higher than the produc-
tion of new materials, while the final quality of the recycled material is
downgraded [58,59]. Recycling of mineral construction materials and
of concrete to coarse materials offers environmental benefits, however,
their construction efficiency may be lower by 60% in relation to that of
natural materials, while the potential environmental benefit of recycled
minerals partly depends on transportation distances [5,60,61].
Given the expected doubling of the building stock during the com-
ing years, the need for construction materials is expected to increase
significantly, putting the materials sector in stress, and generating ma-
jor problems related to extraction, use and waste. More and more, there
are increasing concerns about materials’ future availability and the long
distances of the necessary transport to satisfy the demand [62,63]. It
is evident that as the operational energy consumption of buildings will
continue to decrease, the construction related energy consumption and
emissions will gradually become the dominant factor of the construction
energy balance [64].
2.6. Social inequalities, poverty, and ethical issues
The building sector faces a serious deficit of proper housing. There
are more than 1.8 billion people living in informal housing, under sub-
optimal conditions. The need to provide appropriate shelter to the dis-
advantaged populations is a serious challenge for the construction sector
[65]. There is a continuous increase of the number of insecure, under-
serviced and low standards houses, with residents almost completely
disconnected from acceptable living opportunities. The lack of adequate
housing results in a proliferation of informal settlements where vulner-
able people shelter. The problem of informal housing is extremely acute
in some developing countries. As reported by King et al. [66], more than
56% of the African urban population, with the high majority of them be-
ing young people, lives in slums. This percentage is translated in about
93% of the urban population in the Central African Republic, 90% in
Ghana and 60–70% in Zambia. The percentage of population living in
informal settlements reaches 70% in Caracas, Venezuela, 24% in India
and 25% in China.
Apart from the people living in informal settlements, a large part of
the global population lives under poor housing conditions. As reported
by the World Health Organisation [20], in about 6% of households in
the Caribbean and Latin America there are more than three persons per
room. About 41% of the world population is using indoor open fires or
polluting stoves for heating and cooking, that increase the concentra-
tion of harmful indoor pollutants tremendously. As reported [20], in-
door pollution from open fire caused almost 3.8 million deaths in 2016,
equalling 7.7% of the world’s mortality. Additionally, in 2017, almost
1.4 billion people lacked a proper handwashing facility, while 9–10% of
the world’s population did not have access to uncontaminated drinking
water causing 829,000 deaths from diarrhoeal diseases in 2016 [20].
There are more than 100–150 million people in developed countries
living under energy poverty conditions that cannot afford to cover the
cost of energy [6]. In fact, almost 15% of Europeans live in housing with
damp walls or leaking roofs, floors or foundations, or mould on window
frames [20]. About 13% report that they live in non-comfortably warm
houses and 20% in not well heat-protected buildings during the sum-
mer period. In the United States of America, almost 5.2% of the houses
are inadequate, presenting important quality deficiencies. As a result,
low-income households face serious environmental and health problems
during the periods of extreme high or low ambient temperatures [67].
Cold or overheated buildings result in serious health problems, includ-
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e-Prime - Advances in Electrical Engineering, Electronics and Energy 1 (2021) 100002
ing respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Recent statistics from 11
European countries show that cold homes cause almost 38,200 deaths
per year, equivalent to 30% of the excess winter deaths [20]. In a similar
way, overheating during the summer period results in a long exposure to
very high temperatures, even above 40 °C, seriously affecting the health
and wellbeing of low-income households and increasing the heat related
mortality and morbidity, while increasing social inequalities consider-
ably [68,69].
There is a significant lack of healthy and affordable housing in al-
most all the developed world. Actual estimations show that the gap will
increase from 330 million households in 2014 to 440 million in 2025
[66]. Given the more frequent occurrence of extreme climatic events, the
important increase of the global population, the rise of the aged popu-
lation, and the expected worsening of the socioeconomic status of some
developing countries, the provision of healthy and affordable housing
to prevent morbidity and preserve the wellbeing of residents will be-
come a challenge for the construction sector. To avoid keep failing to
fulfil the set goals for social equity and sustainability, radical housing
policies should be adopted.
3. Recent energy, environmental & technological developments
in the construction sector
The building sector is not characterised by spectacular technological
improvements. Progress is quite slow and very few technologies show
significant improvements. According to IEA [16], only lighting and pho-
tovoltaic technologies are in track with the requirements of the IEA’s
Sustainable Development Scenario. Cooling and appliance technologies
show a certain progress; however, envelope and heating technologies
are rated as off-track.
Even though they are not considered as building related energy sys-
tems by the International Energy Agency, urban mitigation technolo-
gies aiming to decrease the ambient temperature of cities and reduce
the cooling demand of urban buildings, have achieved a spectacular
progress during the last few decades. The development of reflecting and
low surface temperature materials, known as cool or super cool materi-
als, has enabled the decrease of the peak ambient temperature of cities
up to 2.5 – 3 °C, and decrease the energy demand for cooling substan-
tially [70]. Recent developments in material science have led to inno-
vative mitigation materials with superior optical and thermal perfor-
mance [71]. amongst the developed technologies, high reflecting white
and coloured infrared reflecting coatings, as well as photonic, plasmonic
and fluorescent materials present the highest mitigation and energy po-
tential. White and infrared reflecting coatings when used in the urban
fabric or in the roof of buildings can decrease the peak temperature
of buildings up to 1.5 °C, depending on the local climatic characteristics
[72], and may decrease the cooling demand of buildings between 10 and
30%, depending on the urban and building characteristics [73]. The re-
cent development of photonic and plasmonic materials presenting a very
high reflectance to the solar spectrum combined with a high emissivity
in the atmospheric window wavelengths, offers tremendous new oppor-
tunities to mitigate local climatic change [15]. Such materials, known
as super cool materials, can achieve up to 15 °C sub-ambient surface
temperature during the summer under the sun [74], while decreasing
the peak temperature of cities up to 2.5 – 3.0 °C [75]. Fluorescent nano
materials re-emit a very high part of the absorbed solar radiation un-
der the form of fluorescent lighting. When combined with an infrared
reflecting substrate can present up to 10 °C lower surface temperature
than conventional materials of the same colour [76]. Recent advanced
research on fluorescent materials presenting anti-stokes properties, i.e.,
emit more energy than the absorbed, seems to be very promising and
may result in tremendous mitigation benefits [77].
The use of the advanced mitigation materials when combined with
greenery and other dissipation techniques can contribute to the decrease
of up to 30% of the cooling load of buildings and decrease heat related
mortality and morbidity substantially [32,76,78,79].
M. Santamouris and K. Vasilakopoulou
Increase of the energy efficiency in the building sector is a key pri-
ority worldwide. Improved energy efficiency in buildings contributes
towards lower energy needs, but also establishes better thermal com-
fort and quality of life. Additionally, energy efficiency has high added
value for economies, boosts industrial development and generates new
jobs. Energy efficiency is related to the development of new products
or services that improve the efficacy of the building skin, increase the
energy performance of the HVAC and lighting systems and appliances
and increases the usefulness of control systems.
The spectacular improvements of the efficiency of LED lamps have
led to a dramatic decrease of the lighting consumption in the building
sector. According to IEA [16], the global sales of light-emitting diode
lamps in 2017 largely exceeded the corresponding sales of incandes-
cent and halogen lamps in the residential sector. It is estimated that the
annual sales of LED systems will increase by 7% annually, reaching a
volume close to 200 billion USD by 2030 [80]. In parallel, intensive
research on solar photovoltaic modules has resulted in significant im-
provements of their efficiency [81]. In 2017, the electricity generation
from solar PVs has grown by 40%, while the actual market of BIPV tech-
nologies may exceed 6.4 billion USD by 2030 [48].
Technologies aiming to improve the efficiency of the building enve-
lope, including thermal insulation, facades, walls, roofs and windows,
represent almost half of the investment in the building sector, 67 billion
USD, while playing the major role in the energy performance of build-
ings [16]. Innovative research has mainly concentrated on the devel-
opment of smart and active envelopes [82]. Assessment on the existing
technical progress on smart and active building facades has dramatically
improved, however, most of the progress is achieved through numerical
simulation studies, while the real energy impact of smart facades and
envelopes remains almost negligible.
Development of more efficient insulation materials is crucial to de-
crease the heating demand of buildings. Recent research has mainly con-
centrated on the development of advanced aerogel-based components as
well as vacuum insulation and gas insulation panels [83]. Super insula-
tion materials may decrease the thickness of insulation in buildings by
a factor of five, however, the actual penetration in the construction sec-
tor is almost negligible. Future estimations show that only the European
market of insulation products will reach a value close to 35 billion USD
[80].
Intelligent glazing components for buildings like chromogenic and
spectrally selective materials are developed and are commercially avail-
able. Smart glazing materials can control the heat flow through the
transparent elements and optimise indoor daylight performance. Despite
the relatively small penetration in the construction sector, the global
smart glass market size was estimated at USD 4.48 billion in 2020 and
is expected to reach USD 4.71 billion in 2021 [77].
Phase change materials can store heat in buildings and release it
when needed. Important recent research has resulted in the develop-
ment of high efficiency components. According to a market report by
Markets and Markets [84] the phase change materials market is pro-
jected to reach 889 million USD in 2025, from 423 million in 2020 [13].
Digitalisation of the building sector may have a very significant im-
pact on the future energy consumption of buildings. Smart Information
and Communication Technologies (ICT) can manage the operational re-
quirements and building resources in a holistic way, decreasing the en-
ergy consumption and satisfying comfort and sanitary needs. Smart me-
ters can provide useful information to the users on their energy con-
sumption and assist utilities to better manage the electricity loads. Ac-
cording to the International Energy Agency [16], digitalisation could
reduce the energy use of buildings by 10% between now and 2040, pre-
senting cumulative energy savings of about 234 EJ. Market estimations
[84] show that the ICT market for buildings will grow by 2025, and it
will reach up to 108.9 billion USD against 66.3 billion in 2020. Apart
from the ICT digitalisation technologies, smart grid systems integrating
advanced energy supply and generation solutions including renewables,
can optimise the use of the energy resources in settlements and promote
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e-Prime - Advances in Electrical Engineering, Electronics and Energy 1 (2021) 100002
collective green strategies. While the market of smart grid technologies
was close to 110 billion USD in 2015, it is expected to exceed 200 billion
by 2020 [13].
As already discussed, cooling is the fastest growing energy consump-
tion source and the needs for significant energy improvements in cooling
efficiency are emerging. Given the achieved technological progress and
the strict energy regulations in terms of the minimum efficiency of split
air conditioners their performance has improved by 3% per year dur-
ing the last 15 years in the EU, American, Asian and Australian markets
[85]. Efficiency of room air conditioners has improved as more efficient
compressors, heat exchangers, valves and inverters are employed while
the crankcase heating and the standby load has reduced. Efficiency im-
provements of similar nature for the commercial air conditioners are
reported as well [86]. Most of the achieved efficiency improvements
are assessed as cost effective leading to a decrease of the cooling energy
cost between 50 and 65% by 2050 [87,88]. Future projections around
the efficiency of residential and commercial air conditioners estimate
that the average Coefficient of Performance (CoP) of the installed stock
in the USA will increase from the actual value of 2.8 to 3.5 in 2050
and 4.4 in 2090 [41]. Technological forecasts around the efficiency of
air conditioners by 2040, show an important improvement of the per-
formance, especially for the ground heat pumps, but not spectacular
improvements for the rest of the technologies [89]. In particular, it is
expected that the highest energy efficiency ratio (EER) of the residen-
tial air conditioning systems will improve from 11.5 in 2013 to 12.9 in
2040, while the best EER of the residential heat pumps will rise from
22 in 2013 to 25 in 2040 [89]. Additionally, the highest EER of the
ground source heat pumps is expected to increase from 20.6 in 2013
to 46 in 2040. Air conditioning is the most rapidly developing building
sector and it has reached around 200 billion USD by 2018, presenting a
growing rate of 10.5%.
Given the tremendous increase of the air conditioning penetration, it
is of extreme importance to design buildings with the minimum possible
cooling needs. This can be achieved with the use of efficient solar and
heat control systems, amortization of heat using proper heat storage
materials, heat dissipation techniques to cool heat sinks and green and
cool envelopes [90].
While the use of heat pumps and other renewable systems for heating
and cooling purposes is increasing by about 5% per year the last decade
[16], heating equipment based on the use of conventional fossil fuels
represents almost 50% of the sales, and conventional electric heaters
another 25% [16]. To advance decarbonization of the building sector,
the share of the conventional heating equipment needs to decrease ur-
gently.
Passive design of buildings, including passive heating and cooling
systems and techniques and daylighting design, significantly contributes
to the reduction of the energy consumption of buildings, the improve-
ment of indoor thermal and visual comfort, the protection of occupants
health and to the increase of productivity [91]. Use of passive cooling
and heating systems in buildings, including solar collection and storage,
heat protection, heat dissipation and heat amortisation techniques have
been proven to reduce the cooling demand in buildings substantially
and reduce the need for additional electricity [6].
Behavioural interventions in the building sector, like regulatory ad-
justments to set point temperatures for heating and cooling, implemen-
tation of adaptive thermal comfort standards as well as adjustments re-
lated to the hot water, are facilitated using smart devices [22]. It is
estimated that behavioural interventions may decrease the residential
energy demand in the USA between 16 – 20%, while the 2030 energy
savings potential in India is estimated between 3.4 to 10.2 TWh per year.
Similar forecasts for Ireland show that the energy savings potential of
behavioural interventions may contribute up to 2.3 TWh per year for the
residential and up to 6.5 TWh for the commercial buildings, equivalent
to 5% of the energy consumption of the building sector [22].
Design and construction of zero energy buildings is a mandatory re-
quirement in many developed countries and areas, like in the European
M. Santamouris and K. Vasilakopoulou
Union. Almost zero energy buildings are based on the combined use
of advanced energy conservation and energy management technologies
with building integrated renewable systems. Recently designed zero en-
ergy buildings employ different design methodologies to minimise the
energy consumption and present significant cost differences. The spec-
trum of the existing zero energy buildings ranges between designs com-
bining energy conservation technologies with a rational fraction of re-
newable energy systems, and buildings based on an excessive use of pho-
tovoltaics and almost a negligible energy conservation [92]. Although
zero energy buildings contribute tremendously to decarbonise the con-
struction sector, there are concerns about the induced additional capital
cost. Excessive increase of the cost may consist of a serious burden espe-
cially for the low-income population in the developed countries [91,93].
Despite the undeniable benefits of almost zero energy buildings, they
form a small market with less than 5% of the buildings built with zero
energy consumption [16]. Most of the applications are in developed
countries, like France, while zero energy building technologies have an
almost negligible penetration in the developing countries.
Net zero energy settlements or communities have attracted consid-
erable interest during the last years. Zero energy communities are com-
posed of a few buildings and common spaces and according to the U.S.
Department of Energy, “a net zero energy community is an energy-
efficient community where, on a source energy basis, the actual annual
delivered energy is less than or equal to the on-site renewable exported
energy” [94]. Zero energy settlements are mainly based on the use of
community and not just building integrated renewable systems, com-
bined with advanced energy conservation technologies and appropri-
ate energy and environmental management facilities. Such communi-
ties present important advantages compared to zero energy buildings,
as they present more efficient management of the available energy re-
sources, more efficient renewable systems, better microclimatic condi-
tions, lower cost of energy production, minimum oversizing of the en-
ergy systems and a better adaptation capacity to the local climatic condi-
tions [95]. Even though numerous zero energy settlements are designed
and built more research is necessary to further advance the concept and
optimise their design.
4. The future energy consumption of the building sector
The prediction of the future energy consumption of the building sec-
tor is a challenging exercise as it is determined by numerous political,
technological, climatic, social, demographic and economic drivers, that
present very high uncertainty. What is feasible, is to create scenarios on
the potential evolution of the energy demand under well predetermined
boundary conditions.
The main factors and drivers affecting the future energy consumption
of buildings may be classified in several major groups, as below:
a) Demographic drivers: The size of the world future population deter-
mines the size of the building stock and affects the global energy
consumption of buildings. As mentioned, forecasts estimate that the
world population will increase between 9.4 and 10.1 billion people
by 2050 [96]. As a result, it is projected that 230 billion square me-
ters of new buildings will be added to the existing stock, equivalent
to an annual increase equal to the total building stock of Japan [97].
b) Economic drivers: Increase of a household’s income improves their
consumption capacity and results to a greater demand for larger res-
idences and rise of the demand for energy services and energy equip-
ment. There is a quite strong association between the GDP and the
occupied floor space per person [13]. Analysis of the available data
reveals that for a GDP close to $60,000 US, the average floor area per
person is close to 40m2 /capita and it is reduced to 28m2 /capita and
22m2 /capita when GDP is reduced to 10,000 and 5000 USD per per-
son, respectively [98]. The association between the family income
and the increasing use of air conditioning is also documented and
it follows a logistic S–curve with a long delay before an increase in
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e-Prime - Advances in Electrical Engineering, Electronics and Energy 1 (2021) 100002
the uptake [99]. In parallel, it is well known that the association
between the Unit Energy Consumption for cooling and the family
income is described by a logarithmic correlation increasing rapidly
for low and slowly for high incomes [98]. Several parameters con-
trol and determine the socioeconomic pathways of the future eco-
nomic development of the world. An analysis of 19 socioeconomic
pathways for 2050 [13], shows that the average GDP per capita for
2050 may vary between 7200 and 26,400 USD. The vagueness is
due to the uncertainty of the productivity rate and the size of the fu-
ture population. Tremendous differences are reported in terms of the
2050 GDP amongst the various geographic parts of the planet. A con-
siderable increase of the GDP is foreseen for some of the emerging
economies that will also have most of the new population. Given the
strong relationship between the GDP and the energy consumption,
a considerable rise of the energy consumption may be expected un-
less new green policies are implemented to dissociate the projected
economic growth from the energy consumption. Apart from the GDP
levels determined financial capacity to purchase energy services, the
future price of energy and mainly that of the electricity, as well as the
price of the energy equipment will play a significant role in the de-
mand for energy in the building sector. While, most of the forecasts
agree that the price of the energy equipment as well as the future
production cost of electricity may decrease [100], there are conflict-
ing estimations about the future price of energy and especially of
the electricity cost [101]. This is highly depended on the pathways
to expand and decarbonise the electric generation networks.
c) Climatic drivers: The energy consumption of buildings highly de-
pends on the local climatic conditions. In parallel, the local climate
defines the penetration of energy devices and especially of air con-
ditioning in the local building stock [102]. Global climatic change
is expected to increase the future energy consumption of buildings
for cooling purposes. Despite the international agreements, there is
a very high vagueness about the future climatic conditions. Several
future climatic scenarios are developed by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other climate researchers and
are available for most places in the planet [103]. Use of the exist-
ing climatic scenarios to estimate the future energy consumption of
buildings results in forecasts varying up to a factor of ten [32]. It
is important to note that most of the available future climatic data
does not consider the urban influence and the potential increase of
the local temperature caused by the specific regional overheating. A
good approximation of the potential impact of global temperature
increase on the global cooling degree days and the corresponding
cooling demand is given by Warren et al. [104]. Their study shows
that an increase of the ambient temperature from 0.0 to 1.0, 1.0 to
2.0 K, 2.0 to 3.0 K, 3.0 to 4.0 and 4.0 to 5.0 K corresponds to an aver-
age increase of the cooling degree days of 13.7%, 33.2%, 55%, 76%
and 99%, respectively.
d) Social drivers: Increase of the family income, overpopulation and
various social trends result in a continuous increase of the total floor
area of residential and commercial buildings. Over the last ten years,
the total building floor area has increased by 21% [5]. Analysis of the
existing data and various forecasts, shows that the total world resi-
dential floor area in 2010 was ranging between 140 and 190 billion
square meters, and it is expected to rise between 180 and 290 billion
square meters in 2030 and between 190 and 370 billion square me-
ters in 2050. Moreover, the Sustainable Development Scenario of IEA
[16], considered that the buildings floor area may double by 2070.
In the Sustainable Development Scenario, floor area increases more
than twofold in the period to 2070, which is ‘equivalent to adding a
city the size of Paris to the world every week. The expected increase
corresponds to an average of 20.7 to 24 m2 per person in 2010, ris-
ing to 25–30 m2 in 2030 and 28.5 to 37m2 in 2050, with most of the
increase to happen in emerging economy countries [105–107]. Addi-
tionally, the total floor area of the commercial buildings is expected
to increase between 25 and 30 billion square meters in 2030 and
M. Santamouris and K. Vasilakopoulou
28.5 and 37 billion in 2050, against 21–24 billion square meters in
2010 [107]. Higher floor area per person is strongly associated with
the observed decrease of the size of households. While the average
size of household in 2010 was close to 3.6 persons, forecasts show
that it may decrease between 2.9 and 3.3 persons in 2030 and 2.3
to 2.7 persons in 2050 [107].
e) Increase of the buildings floor space may result in a very consider-
able rise of the energy consumption and of the related greenhouse
emissions. It is reported that in Switzerland, for example, a contin-
ued growth of floor area by 20% until 2050 may result to an in-
crease of the greenhouse gas emissions by 8% [108]. Apart from the
direct energy and environmental impact of the increased floor area
of buildings, it may also cause other serious consequences. As esti-
mated, it may result to a global urban land area growth by a factor
of three between 2010 and 2050 [109]. Reduction of the size of resi-
dential buildings may significantly limit the use of energy as well as
the use of materials in the building sector [24]. Estimations in Nor-
way show that reduction of the floor area of buildings may result in
a serious decrease of up to 50% of the climatic impact of buildings
[110]. While the decrease of the floor area seems to be a key driver,
other options like higher size of households, use of multi-purpose
working spaces and fewer second homes, may contribute towards a
lower energy consumption in the building sector [24].
f) Technological drivers: Technological improvements in the building
sector should counterbalance the negative impact of the total in-
crease of the buildings floor area, the increase of the population,
the rise of the additional energy services for cooling and appliances
as well as the impact of the global and regional climate change. As
previously discussed, there is a substantial improvement of the en-
ergy efficiency and energy intensity in the building sector despite the
short-term variability. This is fuelled by the significant investments
in energy efficiency in the developed and some emerging economies.
The total spending on energy efficiency research and development
has recently increased slightly, reaching the 150 billion USD and
possibly exceeding the limit of 200 billion USD in 2021. Despite
the remarkable increase of the energy efficiency spending, almost
all actors agree that much more must be done to achieve a decar-
bonised building sector by 2050. Estimates on the magnitude of the
required spending, as well as of the technological priorities vary sub-
stantially as a function of the objectives and the future pathways to
follow .For most of the future energy scenarios, the decarbonisation
of the building sector may be achieved through the use of clean elec-
tricity produced by renewable and other non-polluting technologies
[16]. Use of clean electricity to satisfy the energy demand should
decrease the use of polluting fossil fuels and the carbon emissions
from buildings. Development and implementation of energy efficient
building technologies may contribute to decrease the energy needs
in buildings, but it seems it is not the main factor affecting decar-
bonisation. However, such an approach puts the emphasis on energy
supply and not on energy demand technologies. This could result in
serious problems relevant to the capacity of buildings to provide pro-
tection during extreme events, enhance indoor comfort without the
use of mechanical systems, provide cheap and affordable electricity
to vulnerable and low-income population, respect equity in energy
supply and promote outdoor living in sustainable cities. Given the
risks and the uncertainties of the normative energy supply-centred
decarbonisation scenarios, the development of advanced and inno-
vative building technologies seems urgent and may be the real game
changer of tomorrow.
g) Policy drivers: Although there is a vast political agreement that fu-
ture energy scenarios should mainly focus on environmental sustain-
ability issues and promote decarbonisation objectives, national poli-
cies and priorities around the world differ considerably. Issues re-
lated to short- or long-term national interests outweigh the global
sustainability objectives. Issues related to security and affordability
of the future energy supply aiming to feed a fast economic develop-
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e-Prime - Advances in Electrical Engineering, Electronics and Energy 1 (2021) 100002
ment, luck of resources to implement clean energy generation plants
and finance the energy rehabilitation of the building sector, fears
about the future cost of the clean energy supply and of the related
innovative energy systems, concerns about the future technological
dependence from the advanced energy actors, etc., are amongst the
arguments used to deviate from the normative decarbonisation ap-
proaches. Very few countries have developed and implement a long
vision of decarbonisation policies supported by measures aiming to
alter and boost the local infrastructure and technological know-how.
As a result, since 2017, about two-thirds of the world’s countries
have not set up mandatory building energy regulations and certifi-
cation schemes, and only 73 countries have introduced mandatory
energy legislation [16]. Luck of appropriate legislative measures de-
lays the market adaptation to the new technologies and adds more
stock of high energy buildings. As reported by IEA [16], the number
of new, high-efficiency buildings being constructed needs to increase
more than 25-fold by 2030, with deep energy renovation of existing
stock also needing to more than double in the coming decade.
Forecasting of the future energy demand of the building sector is re-
quired to design, plan and implement the future energy networks and
also support the national and international development policies. In re-
sponse to that need, numerous models have been developed to forecast
the future energy consumption of buildings including the residential
and tertiary sector [16,98,99,104,111–119]. (Most of the proposed mod-
els consider almost all major drivers discussed above, like the expected
technological and economic developments, climate and demographic is-
sues.
While heating of buildings is the most energy consuming end use,
there is a wide consensus that cooling energy will increase considerably
and become the dominant energy consumption use. Fig. 1, depicts the
predicted future world heating and cooling energy demand as forecasted
by Isaac and Van Vuuren [98].
A detailed estimation of the future cooling energy consumption up
to 2050 is proposed by Santamouris [13]. The method used provided an
assessment of the future energy consumption of commercial buildings
considering the future total floor area, their specific energy consumption
per square metre, the impact of climate change, the penetration of the
air conditioning in the commercial buildings and their future efficiency
as well as the expected energy performance of the commercial buildings.
Considering a high-, an average- and a low-development scenarios, it is
predicted that the 2050 cooling energy consumption of the commercial
buildings will be close to 1.13 PWh, 1.55 PWh and 2.03PWh for the
low-, average- and high-development scenario, respectively, equivalent
to an increase of the consumption close to 200%, 275% and 360% for
the three scenarios. In a similar way it is predicted that the residential
cooling energy consumption will be close to 2.15PWh, 5.27PWh and
15.4PWh for the three considering scenarios respectively, equivalent to
an increase of the cooling energy consumption close to 320%, 750%
and 2270%, compared to the current levels (Fig. 2). The tremendous
increase of the electricity demand for air conditioning will require an
additional power capacity close to 2,000GW by 2050, just to supply the
predicted by IEA [22] additional 5,400TWh of the annual air condi-
tioning demand. It must be pointed out that such an additional energy
demand is equivalent to the present annual electricity consumption of
the US, Japan, and Germany, combined.
5. The pathway to full decarbonization of the building sector
Several scenarios and pathways towards the full decarbonization of
the building sector have been developed and proposed. As a response to
the Paris agreement on future climate, the International Energy Agency
(IEA) has prepared two specific decarbonization scenarios. The Sustain-
able Development Scenario (SDS), aiming to minimize carbon emissions
by 2070 and the Net Zero Emissions Scenario (NZE2050), targeting al-
most zero emissions by 2050. Both scenarios have foreseen a very sub-
M. Santamouris and K. Vasilakopoulou e-Prime - Advances in Electrical Engineering, Electronics and Energy 1 (2021) 100002

Fig. 1. Modelled global residential energy demand for heating and for air conditioning in a reference scenario. Copied with permission from Morna Isaac and Detlef
P. van Vuuren [98].

Fig. 2. Predicted cooling energy consumption of the residential buildings in the world, for 2050. Results of the low, average and high development scenarios and
variability as a function of the main parameters and drivers. Copied with permission from: M. Santamouris. [13].

stantial increase of clean electricity use in buildings as well as consider-
able improvements in the building energy efficiency. Under the SDS, it is
foreseen that by 2030 the direct emissions should decrease by more than
30% while the total emissions should fall by 3.5 Gt CO2 until 2030 [22].
In parallel, the expected addition of very energy efficient new buildings
and the deep energy refurbishment of the existing stock is expected to
contribute to a further decrease of the buildings’ consumption by almost
10% until 2070. It is foreseen that the annual floor area of buildings to
be retrofitted to zero energy level should be equal to the actual building
floor area of France or close to 4 billion square meters. It is character-
istic that almost 79% of the expected decrease of the CO2 emissions is
achieved by using improved but commercially available energy tech-
nologies, while the other 30% may be provided by energy technologies
being actually at the prototype or demonstration phase. The scenario
considers that thermal uses in buildings like space and water heating
currently provided by fossil fuels will be mostly covered by electric heat
pumps and district networks using renewable energies accounting for
about 50% of the thermal equipment sales by 2070. The scenario pre-
dicts a massive penetration of high efficiency and economically afford-
able, due to economies of scale, electric and ground heat pumps in the
building sector to provide the heating and cooling needs and to replace
equipment using fossil fuels. It is estimated that the implementation of
the above policies may reduce the building residual direct emissions to
less than 300 Mt by 2070.
In the NZE2050 Scenario, it is projected that the direct building CO2
emissions should decline by 50%, while the indirect building emissions

9
M. Santamouris and K. Vasilakopoulou
should be reduced through the decline of the emissions of the electric-
ity generation system by 60%, by 2030 [18]. To achieve such a goal,
annual building emissions should decrease by 6% in the period 2020–
2030, while clean electricity sources should provide almost 75% of the
total electricity generation by 2030 against less than 40% in 2019. This
requires that the annual addition of new clean power generation sys-
tems is increasing by a factor of four compared to the current levels,
while the total electricity capacity by 2050 should be 250% higher than
today [18]. Moreover, the buildings’ energy demand of fossil fuels is ex-
pected to decrease to 30% by 2030 and to 2% by 2050. Improvements in
the energy efficiency of the building skin, ventilation and behavioural
changes are expected to decrease the total energy needs for heating by
65% by 2050. Electricity is expected to cover about 40% of the ther-
mal needs in buildings by 2050, against 20% in 2020, while bioenergy
should cover 25% of the thermal needs. The use of low carbon gases like
hydrogen, biomethane and synthetic methane in building gas distribu-
tion networks increases to 10% by 2030 and 75% by 2050 against zero
in 2020. The share of gas in heating is expected to drop close to 0.5% in
2050 against 30% in 2020, while gas heaters should be able to run with
hydrogen. The percentage of homes using electricity for heating should
rise from today’s nearly 20% to 35% in 2030 and about 55% in 2050.
The sales of new coa and oil boilers will reach a zero level by 2025. As in
the SD Scenario, electric high efficiency heat pumps are expected to be
the main system providing space heating, The world’s monthly installa-
tion of heat pumps is expected to rise to 5 and 10 million by 2030 and
2050 respectively, against 1.5 million today, while solar water heating
increases its share from 7% to 35% by 2050 and the number of resi-
dents with solar PV panels may grow from 25 million to 240 million
by 2050.
As it concerns the use of space cooling, it is projected that the elec-
tricity demand will increase by 1% per year, reaching a consumption
close to 2500 TWh by 2050. It is expected that by 2050 almost 60%
of the households will be air conditioned against 35% in 2020. More
specifically, it is estimated that almost 650 million air conditioners will
be installed by 2030 and another 2 billion by 2050. Use of highly ef-
ficient air conditioning is expected to reduce the needed power capac-
ity by 1330 GW by 2050. Improvements of the building envelope and
global energy performance is expected to decrease the needs for cooling
by 30–50% compared to the actual cooling load and provide energy sav-
ings close to 2000TWh. Regarding the lighting, it is expected that high
efficiency LED lamps will cover the whole market by 2025 while only
the best energy efficient appliances will be used by 2050. The potential
use of smart control and digitalisation technologies may contribute to
a decrease of CO2 emissions in buildings by 350 Mt by 2070, while be-
havioural changes may also contribute to decrease the CO2 emissions
by 250 Mt CO2 by 2030.
Achieving a zero-energy status for the 85% of the building stock by
2050, requires a rate of retrofitting of the existing building stock close
to 2.5% per year, against the current level of 1%. This is equivalent
to a reroofing rate close to 10 million dwellings per year in developed
countries and 20 million per year in developing countries. Delays in
achieving a reroofing rate close to 2.5% by 2030 will make impossi-
ble to retrofit most of buildings by 2050. Delays of the retrofitting rate
for about 10 years is expected to further grow the demand for elec-
tricity by 20% by 2050 relative to the forecasts of the NZE50 scenario,
while additional energy of 15 EJ to be delivered by fossil fuels would be
needed.
Estimations of the IEA, [18], shows that in order to achieve the
Net Zero Goal by 2050, an increase by almost 27 billion USD of the
annual building capital investments is required over the next decade.
It is also estimated that such investments will result in very signifi-
cant savings for the households in terms of energy spending. It is fore-
seen that the average household spending for energy will decrease to
2.5% by 2050 against 5% today, resulting in cumulative gains of 5 tril-
lion USD. However, such an estimation is not supported by additional
data.
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e-Prime - Advances in Electrical Engineering, Electronics and Energy 1 (2021) 100002
6. Decarbonizing the building sector – benefits and potential
problems
Decarbonisation of the building sector requires very significant in-
vestments that may boost the economic development, enhance employ-
ment opportunities, fight poverty, and promote social equity. However,
the overall attempt is not free of problems or challenges that may com-
promise the global expectations or create significant new technological,
political, and social problems.
Several estimates are available about the level of the necessary in-
vestments to achieve the decarbonisation objectives. It is estimated that
the total required budget for the decarbonisation of the building sec-
tor is close to USD 14 trillion [18,97]. It is also estimated [97], that
energy efficient buildings in all emerging cities with population higher
than half a million, present a financial market up to 26 trillion USD until
2030, with 60% of the investments addressing the construction of new
residences.
According to the IFC 2021, the necessary investments to perform
energy efficient retrofitting in 21 emerging markets in the coming years
is close to 1.1 trillion USD, while it is expected to generate 24.9 million
new local jobs mainly in the low- and medium-income quartile of the
society. Almost 60% of the expenditure on building energy efficiency
retrofits is the labour cost, it is estimated that 9 to 31.4 new jobs are
created for each million USD of investments in building efficiency, while
the replacement of old appliances with new efficient ones may generate
7–16 jobs per million dollars invested [18].
In parallel, it is expected to create sort and long-term investment op-
portunities as well as a very significant reduction of the operational cost
of buildings and provision of a heathier indoor environment. Addition-
ally, highly efficient buildings present 10 to 30% higher resale prices,
occupancy rates increased by 23%, and 57% higher tenant retention
[97].
Green investments in cities and policies to fight local climate change
and overheating may also provide significant economic and employment
benefits. It is estimated [20], that if cities in 21 emerging economy coun-
tries prioritize green development policies, they will attract 7 trillion
USD of investments by 2030 and will generate 144 million new jobs.
Although the potential environmental and economic benefits related
to the decarbonization of the building sector are tremendous, there are
also issues to be considered. Anticipated economic, political, social and
even technological problems are quite clear and evident while the pro-
vided solutions are not always feasible or fully convincing. Even though
it is out of the scope of the present paper to provide an extended presen-
tation and documentation of the potential decarbonization problems, a
simple list of the main and open questions is given below.
a) Economic and financial problems. Decarbonisation of the built en-
vironment is based on three main axes: a) Extended use of clean
and renewable sources to replace fossil fuels in buildings and power
supply; b) A giant retrofitting of the existing building stock in de-
veloped countries; c) the construction of more than one billion new
low or even zero energy new buildings in the developing world. As
discussed above, the required capitals to satisfy the set objectives
are colossal. The global cost of the decarbonisation of the electricity
supply system is estimated between 92 and 173 trillion USD for the
next 40 years [101]. It is well recognised that developed countries
can afford the cost and dispose the financial means and mechanisms
to satisfy the requirements. Unfortunately, this is not the case for
most of the developing countries, except for two or three emerging
economies. Most of the developing countries are unable to develop
the extended energy supply system based on renewable energies,
create the necessary networks, and maintain the systems. Provision
of proper but gigantic financing seems to be very unlikely, given
the current economic conditions. In parallel, the current quality of
buildings in developing countries is far from the required energy ef-
ficiency standards, mainly due to lack of adequate budget and tech-
M. Santamouris and K. Vasilakopoulou
nical know-how. It seems almost impossible for both the private and
public financial sector to support the extensive construction of near
zero energy buildings in these countries. Good examples in Brazil
and South Africa are promising signs of potential positive future de-
velopments, however, the current conditions are far from ambitious
objectives. Retrofitting of the existing building stock in developed
countries is moderately supported by several public and private ini-
tiatives. However, the expected decrease of the use of conventional
fuels, may decrease their cost and rise substantially the amortisa-
tion period of the energy retrofitting measures. Additionally, energy
poverty is a serious problem in these countries. In Europe alone,
there are more than 70 million energy poor. Despite the impor-
tant programs to rehabilitate low-income houses, the size of energy
poverty continues to increase as additional low-income population
is immigrating in developed countries. Transitional financial mech-
anisms applied to support rehabilitation of the buildings owned by
the wealthy population, are not implemented to low-income house-
holds, where generous public investments are required. Decarbonisa-
tion scenarios developed by international institutions neglect almost
completely the serious need to fight the regional climatic change and
the urban overheating that increases the cooling energy consump-
tion tremendously. There is a serious lack of estimates of the cost
of such mitigation activities. However, given the actual cost of ur-
ban rehabilitation, it is estimated that it will range between 5 and
10 trillion USD by 2050. Such an investment is not foreseen and is
unknown how it can be achieved by the developing countries.
b) Socioeconomic problems. The use of clean electricity is expected to
promote indoor air quality minimize the use of polluting fuels for
cooking and thus save millions of lives per year in developing coun-
tries. However, there is uncertainty about the future cost of elec-
tricity. Estimations of the IEA show that the cost of energy in the fu-
ture will decrease substantially and the share of the energy spending
of households will be reduced. However, several other estimations
by international institutions predict an adverse picture with much
higher energy costs and in particular higher electricity prices [13].
Higher energy prices will constitute a serious obstacle towards decar-
bonisation, especially for the developing countries, and may result
in serious competitivity problems, while increasing energy poverty
and social equity problems.
c) Political problems: Decarbonisation of the building sector requires
the extensive use of advanced energy technologies for power gener-
ation, digitisation and building energy conservation. Most of these
technologies are mainly developed and commercialised by very few
countries in the world. Massive implementation of the specific en-
ergy systems and components will increase the energy and techno-
logical dependence of the client countries. Political conflicts may
limit the free flow of services and advanced technological products
and create negative dynamic policies in parts of the world.
d) Technological problems: Massive production of advanced energy
systems is based on an extensive use of primary materials. The de-
carbonisation of the building sector requires an increase of mineral
requirements by a factor of six by 2040 [120]. For example, the
requirements for lithium may increase by 40 times by 2040 [19],
while the use of copper for electricity cables will double during the
same period. The production of these materials is dependant on a
few countries. As mentioned by IEA, ‘High levels of concentration,
compounded by complex supply chains, increase the risks that could
arise from physical disruption, trade restrictions or other develop-
ments in major producing countries’ [120].
7. Conclusions
The building sector is highly contributing to the global economic de-
velopment, provision of employment, protection of wellbeing and health
while enhancing the social life of people. Human activities in the built
environment consume energy and other material resources, produce pol-
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e-Prime - Advances in Electrical Engineering, Electronics and Energy 1 (2021) 100002
lution and waste, affecting the global and local environmental quality.
The dynamic nature of the human societies reflects on the reality of
the building sector and determines its challenges, opportunities, and its
overall operational balance. Societal developments related to popula-
tion increase, global and local overheating and climate change, poverty
and economic vulnerability, social exclusion, and related immigration
flows, ask for organized and efficient responses, and place the construc-
tion world under stress.
Visions, objectives, policies and implementation roadmaps in the
building society are not isolated and independent from the world global
pathways. They are an integral part of these pathways and are deter-
mined through strong synergies and tradeoffs. The speed or even the
acceleration of the global development pathways define at large the in-
ternal progress and achievements of the construction activities.
Living in a period of major global challenges, intensification of soci-
etal anomalies, conflicts, divisions and political hesitancy, the building
sector is not prepared to provide effective responses to the existing chal-
lenges and is not even ready to realize the present and future opportu-
nities. As a result, the building energy consumption and the greenhouse
emissions increase globally, while the technological progress is unable
to compensate for the impact of the main drivers affecting the demand
for energy consumption. In parallel, the current institutions managing
the sector are very much stuck on the practices, solutions and conditions
of the past and are unable to foresight and design a dynamic future adap-
tation for the building sector. Even worst, the financial and economic
models of the past remain static, despite their proven weakness and in-
capacity to handle the global problems. The quite slow progress and
the shy implementation of decarbonization policies mainly in the devel-
oped countries is far from adequate to counterbalance the tidal changes
in terms of energy consumption, emissions and economic requirements
in the developing and the emerging economies.
International institutions, mainly around the United Nations, con-
tribute to achieve verbal agreements on future action plans character-
ized by a radical alteration of the future technological objectives, with-
out however defining in a concrete way the roadmap, the implemen-
tation tools and the required financial means. As a result, the progress
is slow, the plans are outdated and gradually become bureaucratic and
voluntaristic concepts of minimum validity.
There is no need to claim terrifying predictions about the future.
Should the future development of the building sector be driven by fi-
nancial opportunities and environmental or social philanthropy? Is it
enough to green the electricity production system without a radical
transformation of the financial and economic model? The answer is neg-
ative as it may result to increase inequalities, economic disparities, and
social discriminations. Future building developments should be green,
sustainable, and designed to promote the incremental benefits of the
future growth for the whole population as much as possible. It is a
global effort asking for radical technological, financial, social and cul-
tural adaptations to a new reality that unfortunately is not yet well
known. It is a unique financial, technological, and social opportunity
that should not be lost.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
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Matthaios Santamouris is a Scientia, Distinguished, Profes-
sor of High Performance Architecture at UNSW, Australia. Be-
fore joining UNSW, M. Santamouris was a Professor in the Uni-
versity of Athens, Greece. Visiting Professor: Cyprus Institute,
Metropolitan University London, Tokyo Polytechnic Univer-
sity, Bolzano University, Brunnel University, Seoul University
National University of Singapore, and UITM Univ Malaysia.
Past President of the National Center of Renewable and Energy
Savings of Greece. Editor in Chief of the Energy and Buildings
Journal, Past Editor in Chief of the Advances Building Energy
Research, Associate Editor of the Solar Energy Journal and
Member of the Editorial Board of 14 Journals. Editor of the Se-
ries of Book on Buildings, published by Earthscan Science Pub-
M. Santamouris and K. Vasilakopoulou
lishers. Editor and author of 20 international books published
by Elsevier, Earthscan, Springer, etc. Author of 368 scientific
articles published in journals. Reviewer of research projects
in 29 countries including USA, UK, France, Germany, Canada,
Sweden, etc. Ranked as the top world cited researcher in the
field of Building and Construction by the Stanford University
ranking system, for 2018 and 2019. Highly Cited Researcher
in the Clarivate ranking for 4 continuous years. Ranked as
No 538 reseracher in the world in all scientific disciplines in
the list prepared by the Stanford University in 2021 for the
100,000 more influential researchers.
14
e-Prime - Advances in Electrical Engineering, Electronics and Energy 1 (2021) 100002
Dr Konstantina Vasilakopoulou is an architect with post-
graduate studies in lighting and environmental engineering.
Konstantina is the acting Director and the leading researcher
of the Home Modification Information Clearinghouse in the
University of New South Wales. Her research interests focus
on architecture, lighting, inclusive and accessible design, sus-
tainable and energy efficient building design, environmental
psychology and the effects of the built environment on older
people and people with disability.