Consult Prep Session 1

Consult Prep
Session - 1
Presented by Consult Club

& Prep Team of IIM Calcutta
Agenda
What's in store for us today
02
01
Prep - Plan Guestimate
Prep Session
Prep Timeline
Summer
Placements
Growth Ses.5
Guestimates
Ses.3
Profitability
Ses.4 Unconventional
Ses.1
&
Go To Market Pricing
Ses.2
www.slideproject.com
What are Guesstimates?
Estimating a quantitative variable relevant to the case you are
solving.
Where Do you use them

Guesstimates are generally used by most companies to test
numerical ability and logical thinking. These will either be a part
of the case you are solving (eg - Market sizing) or would be
posed as a standalone question
4 Steps in Solving a
Guestimates
Clarify Devise Segment Retrospect

● Clarify the question!
Tip: Do not rush. Ensure that you fully understand

the objective, and seek clarifications if any.
● There are various approaches to solving a guesstimate, the 2

most widely used top-down and bottom-up approaches
● Identify proxy for each of the approaches
● Map next 2-3 segments/ branches - identify constraints
● Choose the one that is feasible and minimises # assumptions

● Segment your identified approach fully which gets you to the

answer
● Use guesswork and validate/ cross-check your assumptions
● Work out the numbers
● Take approximations wherever required
● Consolidate
Tip: Ensure that your approach is MECE (Mutually Exclusive and

Collectively Exhaustive) throughout (Step 2 + Step 3)
● If possible, map if your answer/ result can take you back to

the proxy used
● This is to estimate if the other approach yields roughly the

same answer too
Approaches to Solve Guesstimates
Top Down
Bottom Up
Off Beat
Top Down
Bottom Up
Off Beat
Q. Guesstimate the number of cigarettes
consumed in India in a month (in pre-
lockdown period)
To reach the
final answer:
∑(Segment
population *
Average packs
smoked per
day * No of
cigarettes in a
pack * No of
days/month)
Top Down
Bottom Up
Off Beat
Q. Estimate the sales of McDonald’s
branch in Hauz Khas.
Top Down
Bottom Up
Off Beat
Q. Number of Foreigners entering India
for CWG 2006
Commonwealth Games India
Percentage Attending
Opening
Capacity of Stadium Max. Simultaneous

games/Sport
Spectators
Fraction Occupied by Judges/Game
Foreign Nationals
Referees/Game
Team Sports
Max. Simultaneous
Total Foreign Nationals Organisers games/Sport
Judges/Game
Individual Sports
Referees/Game
Neutral Staff
Non-Spectators 20
Players + Subs
Contingent Managers
Support Staff
Contingents Team Sports
Individual Sports Coaches

Assignment
Q. Estimate the size of Refrigerator Market in
India (household only)
Population of India = 1300mn
Urban population Rural population

= 400mn = 900mn
# of households =400/4 =100mn # of households =900/6 =150mn
Medium income Medium income

High income 10% Low income 50% High income 5% Low income 70%
40% 25%
#units/
2 1.25 0.75 1 0.5 0
household
# un5i%
Avg life t%whns
5Y 5Y 7Y 7Y 10 Y
25efjed55
Q. Estimate the number of unique people
travelling via Delhi metro yellow line on
any particular day
1. Number of yellow line coaches running (one-way)
Operating time of metros – 6am to 12am = 18 hrs
Frequency of metros = 1 metro every 5 mins = 12 metros/ hr (**Assumed constant freq)
No. of yellow line one way journeys post discounting for delays = 85%*12 = 10 metros/ hr
4 coaches 6 coaches 8 coaches
Distribution 20% 50% 30%
Average no. of =(0.2*4) + (0.5*6) + (0.3*8) = 6.2 coaches

coaches
2. Calculating capacity for 1 metro coach:

Seating capacity ~50 seats
Maximum number of people standing = 2*50 = 100 (one person in front of each seat, then people
standing in the empty spaces between coaches)
Maximum capacity = 150 approx./ coach
3. Number of unique people travelling
Dividing the day into different time periods:
6 am – 8 am 8 am - 11 am 11 am - 7 pm 7 pm - 10 pm 10 pm - 12
am
Hours 2 3 8 3 2
Utilized 10% = 15 100% = 150 20% = 30 50% = 75 10% = 15

capacity/ coach
No. of people =62*15*2 = =62*150*3 = = 62*30*8 = =62*75*3 = =62*15*2 =

1.86k 27.7k 14.88k 13.95k 1.86k
Total 60,250 people/ day
Most of the people make to and fro trips via metro (assuming 70% people)
= 60k + 60k (0.3) = 78k people per day* 3 (accounting for people getting off) = 240k approx
Let me know
if you have any questions
Tanya Agarwal Chinnala Nishith

Consult Prep Session 1

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Consult Prep

Presented by Consult Club

Where Do you use them

Clarify Devise Segment Retrospect

● Clarify the question!

Tip: Do not rush. Ensure that you fully understand

● There are various approaches to solving a guesstimate, the 2

● Identify proxy for each of the approaches

● Map next 2-3 segments/ branches - identify constraints

● Choose the one that is feasible and minimises # assumptions

● Segment your identified approach fully which gets you to the

● Use guesswork and validate/ cross-check your assumptions

● Work out the numbers

● Take approximations wherever required

Tip: Ensure that your approach is MECE (Mutually Exclusive and

● If possible, map if your answer/ result can take you back to

● This is to estimate if the other approach yields roughly the

Capacity of Stadium Max. Simultaneous

Individual Sports Coaches

Urban population Rural population

# of households =400/4 =100mn # of households =900/6 =150mn

Medium income Medium income

Distribution 20% 50% 30%

Average no. of =(0.2*4) + (0.5*6) + (0.3*8) = 6.2 coaches

2. Calculating capacity for 1 metro coach:

Utilized 10% = 15 100% = 150 20% = 30 50% = 75 10% = 15

No. of people =62*15*2 = =62*150*3 = = 62*30*8 = =62*75*3 = =62*15*2 =

Total 60,250 people/ day

Tanya Agarwal Chinnala Nishith

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Average no. of =(0.24) + (0.56) + (0.3*8) = 6.2 coaches

No. of people =62152 = =621503 = = 62308 = =62753 = =62152 =