Promedio Móvil Simple

Semana Demanda PMS N=3 PMS N=9

1 800 S'T
2 1400 S''T
3 1000 at
4 1500 1066.67 bt
5 1500 1300.00
6 1300 1333.33
7 1800 1433.33
8 1700 1533.33 31 m=1
9 1300 1600.00 32 m=2
10 1700 1600.00 1366.67 33 m=3
11 1700 1566.67 1466.67 34 m=4
12 1500 1566.67 1500.00 35 m=5
13 2300 1633.33 1555.56
14 2300 1833.33 1644.44
15 2000 2033.33 1733.33
16 1700 2200.00 1811.11
17 1800 2000.00 1800.00 Chart T
18 2200 1833.33 1811.11
3000
19 1900 1900.00 1911.11
20 2400 1966.67 1933.33
21 2400 2166.67 2011.11 2500

22 2600 2233.33 2111.11

23 2000 2466.67 2144.44 2000
24 2500 2333.33 2111.11
25 2600 2366.67 2166.67 1500
26 2200 2366.67 2266.67
27 2200 2433.33 2311.11 1000
28 2500 2333.33 2311.11
29 2400 2300.00 2377.78 500
30 2100 2366.67 2377.78
31 2333.33 2344.44 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1

Demanda PM
 FORMULA PMS N=3 PMS N=9
PROMEDIO(N) 2333.33 2344.44
PROMEDIO(PMS) 2333.33 2267.90
2(S´T - S´´T) 2333.33 2420.99
(2/(N-1))*(S´T - S´´T) 0.00 19.14

at - bt*m 2333.33333 2401.85185

at - bt*m 2333.33333 2382.71605
at - bt*m 2333.33333 2363.58025
at - bt*m 2333.33333 2344.44444
at - bt*m 2333.33333 2325.30864

Chart Title

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Demanda PMS N=3 PMS N=9

Mes Ventas Pesos
1 100 0.1
2 90 0.2
3 105 0.3
4 95 0.4
5 99 1 .--> Dato del profe

st+1 97.5
st+2 98.1
 alfa 0.05
St 1050
Xt 1000
St+1 1047.5 .--> alfa*Xt + (1-alfa) * St

Calcule por Suavizamiento Exponencial Doble

ALFA 0.05
Xt 1000 m1 1009
S¨t-1 1010 m2 1008.975
m3 1008.95
s´t 1009.5 m4 1008.925
s´´t 1009.975 m5 1008.9
At 1009.025
Bt -0.025
La FORMULA es : At + Bt*1
ULA es : At + Bt*1
 St 100
Tt 10
alfa 0.2
delta 0.3
Xt 115
SITt 110

Formulas
St+1 111 .--> SITt + alfa*(Xt - SITt)
Tt+1 10.3 .--> Tt + delta*(st+1 - SITt)

SIT t+1 121.3 .--> St+1 + Tt+1 = SIT+1

SITt 121.3
Xt 120
alfa 0.2
delta 0.3
Tt 10.3 Formulas
St+1 121.04 .--> SITt + alfa*(Xt - SITt)
Tt+1 10.222 .--> Tt + delta*(st+1 - SITt)

SIT+1 131.262 .--> St+1 + Tt+1 = SIT+1