DANH SÁCH NHÓM

Họ và tên MSSV Phần trăm đóng góp

Nguyễn Minh Bạch B1911050 100%
Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Hân B1911193 100%
Bùi Anh Bảo Khang B1911200 100%
Nguyễn Kim Như Quỳnh B1911247 100%
Lê Thị Thúy Vy B1911283 100%
 Năm 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Lượt hành khách (Triệu lượt người) 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8

Biểu đồ xu hư

60

50

40

Lượt hành khách (Triệu lượt người)

30

20

10

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
3.9 4.4 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.4 8.9 10.2 10.9

Biểu đồ xu hướng lượng khách sử dụng dịch vụ hàng không

từ năm 1995 đến năm 2020

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2

Năm
 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
14.2 15.1 15 16.9 24.4 31.1 38.6 44.5 49.08

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2019 2020
55.08 32.34
Năm Y Y^t et ME et/Yt MPE |et| MAE
1995 2.4
1996 2.8 2.4 0.4 0.1428571429 0.4
1997 2.6 2.8 -0.2 -0.076923077 0.2
1998 2.6 2.6 0 0 0
1999 2.7 2.6 0.1 0.037037037 0.1
2000 2.8 2.7 0.1 0.0357142857 0.1
2001 3.9 2.8 1.1 0.2820512821 1.1
2002 4.4 3.9 0.5 0.1136363636 0.5
2003 4.5 4.4 0.1 0.0222222222 0.1
2004 5.5 4.5 1 0.1818181818 1
2005 6.5 5.5 1 0.1538461538 1
2006 7.4 6.5 0.9 0.1216216216 0.9
2007 8.9 7.4 1.5 0.1685393258 1.5
2008 10.2 8.9 1.3 0.1274509804 1.3
2009 10.9 10.2 0.7 0.0642201835 0.7
2010 14.2 10.9 3.3 0.2323943662 3.3
2011 15.1 14.2 0.9 0.059602649 0.9
2012 15 15.1 -0.1 -0.006666667 0.1
2013 16.9 15 1.9 0.1124260355 1.9
2014 24.4 16.9 7.5 0.3073770492 7.5
2015 31.1 24.4 6.7 0.2154340836 6.7
2016 38.6 31.1 7.5 0.1943005181 7.5
2017 44.5 38.6 5.9 0.1325842697 5.9
2018 49.08 44.5 4.58 0.0933170334 4.58
2019 55.08 49.08 6 0.1089324619 6
2020 32.34 55.08 -22.74 -0.703153989 22.74
32.34

Tổng 29.94 1.1976 2.1206395146 0.084826 43.78 1.7512

ME MPE MAE MAPE MSE RMSE U

1.1976 0.084826 1.7512 0.1477650792 31.62136 5.623287 1
 |et|/Yt MAPE et^2 MSE RMSE (Yt-Y^t)^2(Yt-Yt-1)^2 U

0.142857 0.16 0.16 0.16

0.076923 0.04 0.04 0.04
0 0 0 0
0.037037 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.035714 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.282051 1.21 1.21 1.21
0.113636 0.25 0.25 0.25
0.022222 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.181818 1 1 1
0.153846 1 1 1
0.121622 0.81 0.81 0.81
0.168539 2.25 2.25 2.25
0.127451 1.69 1.69 1.69
0.06422 0.49 0.49 0.49
0.232394 10.89 10.89 10.89
0.059603 0.81 0.81 0.81
0.006667 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.112426 3.61 3.61 3.61
0.307377 56.25 56.25 56.25
0.215434 44.89 44.89 44.89
0.194301 56.25 56.25 56.25
0.132584 34.81 34.81 34.81
0.093317 20.9764 20.9764 20.9764
0.108932 36 36 36
0.703154 517.1076 517.1076 517.1076

3.694127 0.147765 790.534 31.62136 5.623287 790.534 790.534 1

 alpha=0
TĐDB Năm Y Lt Tt Y^t et ME
1 1995 2.4
2 1996 2.8 2.8 0.4
3 1997 2.6 3.08 0.3688 3.20 (0.60)
4 1998 2.6 3.27904 0.324662 3.82 (1.22)
5 1999 2.7 3.422962 0.27767 4.25 (1.55)
6 2000 2.8 3.520505 0.230837 4.53 (1.73)
7 2001 3.9 3.781074 0.238567 4.67 (0.77)
8 2002 4.4 4.095713 0.258346 5.21 (0.81)
9 2003 4.5 4.383247 0.265935 5.90 (1.40)
10 2004 5.5 4.819345 0.310177 6.51 (1.01)
11 2005 6.5 5.403618 0.381442 7.61 (1.11)
12 2006 7.4 6.108048 0.465419 9.22 (1.82)
13 2007 8.9 7.038774 0.586399 11.23 (2.33)
14 2008 10.2 8.140138 0.72029 14.08 (3.88)
15 2009 10.9 9.268342 0.826347 17.50 (6.60)
16 2010 14.2 10.91575 1.039824 20.84 (6.64)
17 2011 15.1 12.58446 1.203334 26.51 (11.41)
18 2012 15 14.03024 1.266368 31.84 (16.84)
19 2013 16.9 15.61728 1.349745 35.56 (18.66)
20 2014 24.4 18.45362 1.73626 39.91 (15.51)
21 2015 31.1 22.37191 2.303586 51.44 (20.34)
22 2016 38.6 27.46039 3.02766 68.44 (29.84)
23 2017 44.5 33.29044 3.756281 91.04 (46.54)
24 2018 49.08 39.45338 4.382012 115.93 (66.85)
25 2019 55.08 46.08431 4.966731 140.24 (85.16)
26 2020 32.34 47.30884 3.993757 165.29 (132.95)
147.15

Tổng 1,031.94 (475.58) (19.02)

alpha=0.
TĐDB Năm Y Lt Tt Y^t et ME
1 1995 2.4
2 1996 2.8 2.8 0.4
3 1997 2.6 2.72 -0.0128 3.20 (0.60)
4 1998 2.6 2.62144 -0.086554 2.69 (0.09)
5 1999 2.7 2.666977 0.027045 2.36 0.34
6 2000 2.8 2.778804 0.099958 2.78 0.02
7 2001 3.9 3.695752 0.802569 3.28 0.62
8 2002 4.4 4.419664 0.734924 8.51 (4.11)
9 2003 4.5 4.630918 0.284567 9.56 (5.06)
10 2004 5.5 5.383097 0.686714 6.91 (1.41)
11 2005 6.5 6.413962 0.982684 11.56 (5.06)
12 2006 7.4 7.399329 0.984991 16.24 (8.84)
13 2007 8.9 8.796864 1.339779 18.23 (9.33)
14 2008 10.2 10.18733 1.383368 24.87 (14.67)
15 2009 10.9 11.03414 0.921929 28.17 (17.27)
16 2010 14.2 13.75121 2.465754 23.94 (9.74)
17 2011 15.1 15.32339 1.69728 50.74 (35.64)
18 2012 15 15.40413 0.307057 42.48 (27.48)
19 2013 16.9 16.66224 1.124957 20.62 (3.72)
20 2014 24.4 23.07744 5.674567 36.91 (12.51)
21 2015 31.1 30.6304 7.289987 130.89 (99.79)
22 2016 38.6 38.46408 7.75756 176.43 (137.83)
23 2017 44.5 44.84433 6.573073 201.37 (156.87)
24 2018 49.08 49.54748 4.964942 189.45 (140.37)
25 2019 55.08 54.96648 5.355435 163.74 (108.66)
26 2020 32.34 37.93638 -13.89613 183.50 (151.16)
(309.47)

Tổng 963.66 (949.26) (37.97)

ME MPE MAE MAPE MSE RMSE U

-19.0233 (0.72) 19.02333 0.720568 1359.7107 36.87425524 6.5580835
ME MPE MAE MAPE MSE RMSE U
-37.9703 (1.35) 38.04907 1.373786 4438.619205 66.62296305 11.848889
 alpha=0.2, beta=0.26
et/Yt MPE |et| MAE |et|/Yt MAPE et^2 MSE RMSE

(0.23) 0.6 0.230769 0.36

(0.47) 1.2176 0.468308 1.48255
(0.58) 1.553027 0.575195 2.411893
(0.62) 1.733641 0.619158 3.005513
(0.20) 0.774691 0.198639 0.600145
(0.18) 0.812477 0.184654 0.660119
(0.31) 1.404134 0.31203 1.971592
(0.18) 1.010726 0.183768 1.021566
(0.17) 1.110942 0.170914 1.234191
(0.25) 1.81804 0.245681 3.305269
(0.26) 2.327658 0.261535 5.41799
(0.38) 3.875559 0.379957 15.01995
(0.61) 6.603905 0.605863 43.61156
(0.47) 6.637207 0.467409 44.05252
(0.76) 11.41311 0.755835 130.259
(1.12) 16.8378 1.12252 283.5115
(1.10) 18.6585 1.104053 348.1396
(0.64) 15.51269 0.635766 240.6437
(0.65) 20.34255 0.654101 413.8195
(0.77) 29.84362 0.773151 890.6416
(1.05) 46.54126 1.045871 2166.089
(1.36) 66.84863 1.362034 4468.74
(1.55) 85.15965 1.546108 7252.166
(4.11) 132.9459 4.11088 17674.6

(18.01) (0.72) 475.5833 19.02333 18.0142 0.720568 33992.77 1359.711 36.87426

alpha=0.8, beta = 0.86

et/Yt MPE |et| MAE |et|/Yt MAPE et^2 MSE RMSE

(0.23) 0.6 0.230769 0.36

(0.04) 0.0944 0.036308 0.008911
0.13 0.338221 0.125267 0.114393
0.01 0.024844 0.008873 0.000617
0.16 0.621408 0.159335 0.386148
 (0.93) 4.111168 0.934356 16.90171
(1.13) 5.064132 1.125363 25.64544
(0.26) 1.407455 0.255901 1.980931
(0.78) 5.06352 0.779003 25.63923
(1.19) 8.840801 1.194703 78.15977
(1.05) 9.334235 1.04879 87.12795
(1.44) 14.67421 1.438648 215.3324
(1.58) 17.27112 1.584506 298.2915
(0.69) 9.741144 0.685996 94.88988
(2.36) 35.63752 2.360101 1270.033
(1.83) 27.47988 1.831992 755.1436
(0.22) 3.724099 0.220361 13.86891
(0.51) 12.51146 0.512765 156.5367
(3.21) 99.79421 3.208817 9958.883
(3.57) 137.8301 3.570729 18997.15
(3.53) 156.8728 3.525232 24609.09
(2.86) 140.3719 2.860064 19704.28
(1.97) 108.6611 1.972788 11807.24
(4.67) 151.1569 4.673993 22848.42

(33.76) (1.35) 951.2268 38.04907 34.34466 1.373786 110965.5 4438.619 66.62296

(Yt-Y^t)^2(Yt-Yt-1)^2 U

0.36 0.04
1.48255 0
2.411893 0.01
3.005513 0.01
0.600145 1.21
0.660119 0.25
1.971592 0.01
1.021566 1
1.234191 1
3.305269 0.81
5.41799 2.25
15.01995 1.69
43.61156 0.49
44.05252 10.89
130.259 0.81
283.5115 0.01
348.1396 3.61
240.6437 56.25
413.8195 44.89
890.6416 56.25
2166.089 34.81
4468.74 20.9764
7252.166 36
17674.6 517.1076

33992.77 790.374 6.558083

(Yt-Y^t)^2(Yt-Yt-1)^2 U

0.36 0.04
0.008911 0
0.114393 0.01
0.000617 0.01
0.386148 1.21
16.90171 0.25
25.64544 0.01
1.980931 1
25.63923 1
78.15977 0.81
87.12795 2.25
215.3324 1.69
298.2915 0.49
94.88988 10.89
1270.033 0.81
755.1436 0.01
13.86891 3.61
156.5367 56.25
9958.883 44.89
18997.15 56.25
24609.09 34.81
19704.28 20.9764
11807.24 36
22848.42 517.1076

110965.5 790.374 11.84889

Năm Lượt hành khách (Triệu lượt người) Y^t et %et |et| |%et|
1995 2.4
1996 2.8
1997 2.6 3.2 -0.6 -0.230769 0.6 0.230769
1998 2.6 2.4 0.2 0.076923 0.2 0.076923
1999 2.7 2.6 0.1 0.037037 0.1 0.037037
2000 2.8 2.8 0 0 0 0
2001 3.9 2.9 1 0.25641 1 0.25641
2002 4.4 5 -0.6 -0.136364 0.6 0.136364
2003 4.5 4.9 -0.4 -0.088889 0.4 0.088889
2004 5.5 4.6 0.9 0.163636 0.9 0.163636
2005 6.5 6.5 0 0 0 0
2006 7.4 7.5 -0.1 -0.013514 0.1 0.013514
2007 8.9 8.3 0.6 0.067416 0.6 0.067416
2008 10.2 10.4 -0.2 -0.019608 0.2 0.019608
2009 10.9 11.5 -0.6 -0.055046 0.6 0.055046
2010 14.2 11.6 2.6 0.183099 2.6 0.183099
2011 15.1 17.5 -2.4 -0.15894 2.4 0.15894
2012 15 16 -1 -0.066667 1 0.066667
2013 16.9 14.9 2 0.118343 2 0.118343
2014 24.4 18.8 5.6 0.229508 5.6 0.229508
2015 31.1 31.9 -0.8 -0.025723 0.8 0.025723
2016 38.6 37.8 0.8 0.020725 0.8 0.020725
2017 44.5 46.1 -1.6 -0.035955 1.6 0.035955
2018 49.08 50.4 -1.32 -0.026895 1.32 0.026895
2019 55.08 53.66 1.42 0.025781 1.42 0.025781
2020 32.34 61.08 -28.74 -0.888683 28.74 0.888683
9.6

ME MPE MAE MAPE MSE RMSE

-0.964166666666666 -0.023674 2.2325 0.121914 36.91568 6.075828
 et^2 Yt-Yt-1 (Yt-Yt-1)^2

0.36
0.04 0 0
0.01 0.1 0.01
0 0.1 0.01
1 1.1 1.21
0.36 0.5 0.25
0.16 0.1 0.01
0.81 1 1
0 1 1
0.01 0.9 0.81
0.36 1.5 2.25
0.04 1.3 1.69
0.36 0.7 0.49
6.76 3.3 10.89
5.76 0.9 0.81
1 -0.1 0.01
4 1.9 3.61
31.36 7.5 56.25
0.64 6.7 44.89
0.64 7.5 56.25
2.56 5.9 34.81
1.7424 4.58 20.9764
2.0164 6 36
825.9876 -22.74 517.1076

U
1.05878
LượtNăm Yt(3)
hành khách (Triệu lượt et
người) MA MA' a b Y^t
1995 2.4
1996 2.8
1997 2.6 2.6
1998 2.6 2.6 0 2.666667
1999 2.7 2.666667 0.033333 2.633333 2.633333 2.633333 0 2.633333
2000 2.8 2.633333 0.166667 2.7 2.666667 2.733333 0.033333 2.766667
2001 3.9 2.7 1.2 3.133333 2.822222 3.444444 0.311111 3.755556
2002 4.4 3.133333 1.266667 3.7 3.177778 4.222222 0.522222 4.744444
2003 4.5 3.7 0.8 4.266667 3.7 4.833333 0.566667 5.4
2004 5.5 4.266667 1.233333 4.8 4.255556 5.344444 0.544444 5.888889
2005 6.5 4.8 1.7 5.5 4.855556 6.144444 0.644444 6.788889
2006 7.4 5.5 1.9 6.466667 5.588889 7.344444 0.877778 8.222222
2007 8.9 6.466667 2.433333 7.6 6.522222 8.677778 1.077778 9.755556
2008 10.2 7.6 2.6 8.833333 7.633333 10.03333 1.2 11.23333
2009 10.9 8.833333 2.066667 10 8.811111 11.18889 1.188889 12.37778
2010 14.2 10 4.2 11.76667 10.2 13.33333 1.566667 14.9
2011 15.1 11.76667 3.333333 13.4 11.72222 15.07778 1.677778 16.75556
2012 15 13.4 1.6 14.76667 13.31111 16.22222 1.455556 17.67778
2013 16.9 14.76667 2.133333 15.66667 14.61111 16.72222 1.055556 17.77778
2014 24.4 15.66667 8.733333 18.76667 16.4 21.13333 2.366667 23.5
2015 31.1 18.76667 12.33333 24.13333 19.52222 28.74444 4.611111 33.35556
2016 38.6 24.13333 14.46667 31.36667 24.75556 37.97778 6.611111 44.58889
2017 44.5 31.36667 13.13333 38.06667 31.18889 44.94444 6.877778 51.82222
2018 49.08 38.06667 11.01333 44.06 37.83111 50.28889 6.228889 56.51778
2019 55.08 44.06 11.02 49.55333 43.89333 55.21333 5.66 60.87333
2020 32.34 49.55333 -17.21333 45.5 46.37111 44.62889 -0.871111 43.75778
45.5

ME MPE MAE MAPE MSE RMSE U

-2.322424 -0.096292 2.426465 0.10634 15.07497 3.88265 0.64779
 et %et |et| |%et| et^2 Yt-Yt-1 (Yt-Yt-1)^2

0.066667 0.024691 0.066667 0.024691 0.004444 0.1 0.01

0.033333 0.011905 0.033333 0.011905 0.001111 0.1 0.01
0.144444 0.037037 0.144444 0.037037 0.020864 1.1 1.21
-0.344444 -0.078283 0.344444 0.078283 0.118642 0.5 0.25
-0.9 -0.2 0.9 0.2 0.81 0.1 0.01
-0.388889 -0.070707 0.388889 0.070707 0.151235 1 1
-0.288889 -0.044444 0.288889 0.044444 0.083457 1 1
-0.822222 -0.111111 0.822222 0.111111 0.676049 0.9 0.81
-0.855556 -0.09613 0.855556 0.09613 0.731975 1.5 2.25
-1.033333 -0.101307 1.033333 0.101307 1.067778 1.3 1.69
-1.477778 -0.135576 1.477778 0.135576 2.183827 0.7 0.49
-0.7 -0.049296 0.7 0.049296 0.49 3.3 10.89
-1.655556 -0.109639 1.655556 0.109639 2.740864 0.9 0.81
-2.677778 -0.178519 2.677778 0.178519 7.170494 -0.1 0.01
-0.877778 -0.05194 0.877778 0.05194 0.770494 1.9 3.61
0.9 0.036885 0.9 0.036885 0.81 7.5 56.25
-2.255556 -0.072526 2.255556 0.072526 5.087531 6.7 44.89
-5.988889 -0.155153 5.988889 0.155153 35.86679 7.5 56.25
-7.322222 -0.164544 7.322222 0.164544 53.61494 5.9 34.81
-7.437778 -0.151544 7.437778 0.151544 55.32054 4.58 20.9764
-5.793333 -0.10518 5.793333 0.10518 33.56271 6 36
-11.41778 -0.353054 11.41778 0.353054 130.3656 -22.74 517.1076