Urban Climate 35 (2021) 100728

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Urban Climate
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/uclim

Human behaviour change and its impact on urban climate:

Restrictions with the G20 Osaka Summit and COVID-19 outbreak
Ko Nakajima a, Yuya Takane a, *, Yukihiro Kikegawa b, Yasuko Furuta c,
Hiroki Takamatsu c
a
Environmental Management Research Institute, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
b
School of Science and Engineering, Meisei University, Hino, Tokyo, Japan
c
Area Marketing Division, Docomo Insight Marketing, INC., Minato, Tokyo, Japan

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Here we explored human behaviour change impacts on urban climate during the G20 Osaka
Anthropogenic heat Summit and the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. The G20 Summit was held in the Asian
Building energy model megacity of Osaka, Japan on 28–29 June 2019. Due to the G20 restrictions, the traffic count in the
Human activity
city centre was lower by 33% compared with that 1 week prior (the usual week). The urban/office
Urban climate
Urban heat island
area population was reduced by approximately 10%; however, the residential population
Urban heat island mitigation increased by 1%. Here we estimate the impact of G20 restrictions on anthropogenic heat (QF) and
surface air temperature using a regional climate model coupled with urban canopy and building
energy models. The results showed that the daytime QF and air temperature decreased by 15.6 W
land-m− 2 and 0.05 ◦ C, respectively, in commercial areas of the city. The method described here is
expected to be useful for estimating the impacts of similar political events and more extensive
stay-at-home restrictions due to the recent COVID-19 pandemic on urban climates. A simple
estimation showed that the COVID-19 restrictions resulted in QF of 76.3 W land-m− 2 and a
0.13 ◦ C temperature reduction in urban areas, thus, three- to five-fold the impact of the G20
Summit.

1. Introduction

As of 2018, 55% of the entire world’s population lived in urban areas (United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
Population Division, 2018). The resulting population concentration creates a variety of problems, including urban heat islands (UHIs),
food and water supply shortages, air pollution, increased energy demand, as well as environmental impacts. UHIs are caused by
changes in urban land use (e.g. asphalt pavement), morphology (e.g. buildings), and anthropogenic heat emission (hereafter, QF) (e.g.
Torrance and Shum, 1975; Kimura and Takahashi, 1991; Ichinose et al., 1999; Sailor, 2010).
Human behaviour change causes daily variations in QF, which produce near-surface temperature changes. Many previous works
have tried to estimate the QF impact on surface air temperature based on observations. For example, Fujibe (1987) investigated
weekday–weekend differences with respect to the long-term air temperature measured at an observatory in central Tokyo; he found
that Saturday and holiday temperatures were 0.2–0.3 ◦ C lower than on weekdays due to lower human activity. Similar results have

* Corresponding author at: Environmental Management Research Institute, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology
(AIST), AIST Tsukuba West, 16-1 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8569, Japan.
E-mail address: takane.yuya@aist.go.jp (Y. Takane).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100728
Received 29 July 2020; Received in revised form 22 October 2020; Accepted 23 October 2020
Available online 4 November 2020
2212-0955/© 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
K. Nakajima et al. Urban Climate 35 (2021) 100728

been reported in Melbourne, Australia (Earl et al., 2016), Tokyo (Fujibe, 2010), and Osaka, Japan (Ohashi et al., 2016). In addition to
weekday–weekend differences, mass human movements from cities to hometowns for holidays or other special events also promote
changes in QF. The Chinese New Year is a typical mass human movement period. Several studies have focused on the temperature
difference between this holiday period and its background period (some weeks before and after the period) in Chinese megacities such
as Harbin (Wu et al., 2015) and Beijing (Zhang et al., 2015; Zhang and Wu, 2017; Dou and Miao, 2017). Wu et al. (2015) found that
during the holiday period, the temperature difference between urban and rural stations (the UHI intensity) was approximately 0.3 ◦ C
smaller than that before the period.
Although the relationship between human behaviour and urban climate has undergone some investigation, many questions remain.
For example, it is difficult to quantify the urban climate response to changes in human behaviour due to a specific event. Numerical

(a) (b)
46°N

44°N

42°N Sea of Japan

Western
40°N
Japan Area Osaka
38°N Bay Osaka
d1 Plain
36°N
d2
34°N

32°N
Pacific Ocean
30°N
130°E 135°E 140°E 145°E

(c) (d)
35°N

34.7°N

34.5°N Osaka
City

34.6°N

135.4°E 135.5°E 135.6°E

C Rr Rw Urban
34°N
135°E 135.5°E 136°E
Grass Forest Paddy Water

Fig. 1. Study area including (a) domains d1 and d2, (b) topography and (c) land use in the Osaka Plain (d2) and (d) Osaka city, with reference areas
for urban land-use categories including commercial and office buildings (C), concrete fireproof apartments (Rr), and detached wooden dwellings
(Rw). The location of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS) site in Osaka is
indicated by a red star in (b). Blue solid lines in (d) indicate restricted highways and blue dashed lines indicate highways that were not restricted
during the G20. Sky-blue hatched areas were designated as off-limits by the Osaka Prefectural Police. Areas within grey lines were designated as
restricted areas; only C grids within these areas were used to calculate C category averages. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this
figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

2
 K. Nakajima et al.
3

Fig. 2. Parameter settings for (a) the number of occupants, (b) air conditioning (AC) operation rate, and (c) electricity consumption (EC) by appliances in each urban category.

Urban Climate 35 (2021) 100728

K. Nakajima et al. Urban Climate 35 (2021) 100728

simulations, especially coupled models that can account for the urban canopy and building energy use, can help to resolve these
relations (Kikegawa et al., 2003, 2014, 2017; Salamanca et al., 2014; Takane et al., 2017; Takane et al., 2019; Takane et al., 2020). An
example would be a coupled model that considers the following consequences initiated by a change in human behaviour/activity:
human behaviour change - > indoor thermal load change - > electricity consumption (hereafter, EC) and QF change - > outdoor
temperature change. The coupling model by Kikegawa et al. (2003, 2014) combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)
model, the canopy model (CM), and the building energy model (BEM), as the WRF-CM-BEM model, to reproduce the QF impact for a
temperature difference of 0.5–1.0 ◦ C (the observed weekday–weekend difference temperature). The QF and temperature relation has
also been estimated in various works that examined megacities worldwide (Salamanca et al., 2014; Takane et al., 2017, 2019, 2020; Xu
et al., 2018). This modelling system is useful for determining the relationship between human behaviour and urban climate.
On 28–29 June 2019, the G20 Summit (hereafter G20) was held in Osaka, Japan which is the largest metropolis in Japan after
Tokyo. The city has a population of about 2.66 million. During the summit, Osaka Prefectural Police regulated traffic and asked
residents to refrain from driving to the area for work. Several areas were off limits to residents for security reasons. As a result, public
schools and some companies were closed; some chose to telework during this period. Osaka Prefectural Police reported a 51.2%
reduction in traffic in its urban areas (Sankei, 2019). Additionally, a reduction of 6–7% in the city’s population was recorded during the
G20, compared with the totals one week prior (NTT Docomo, Inc., 2019). Given the findings of previous studies, we suspected that
these changes would serve to reduce QF emissions, EC, and near-surface temperature in the office/urban areas. Thus, the G20 provided
an ideal opportunity to analyse the impact of human behaviour on urban climate. Although the impacts of other political events (e.g.
the Olympic Games) on atmospheric environment (and its chemistry) have been investigated (Li et al., 2011; Huang et al., 2013), the
effects on the urban climate, including QF emissions, EC, and near-surface temperature, have yet to be revealed.
Here we present high-quality population data with 500 m and 1 h resolutions during and before the G20 (see details in Section 2.2)
to estimate the relationship between human behaviour and urban climate for every hour within Osaka city using a numerical model.
Specifically, we evaluated the impact of G20 restrictions on QF, EC, and air temperature in Osaka using the WRF-CM-BEM and
population data. As a potential UHI mitigation strategy, the impact of G20 and other human behaviour change events, such as stay-at-
home restrictions during the COVID-19 outbreak (as an extreme case), were investigated.

2. Method

2.1. Description of the numerical simulation

The present study used the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) ver. 3.7.1 (Skamarock et al., 2008) and the on-line coupling system
WRF and CM-BEM (Kikegawa et al., 2003) (hereafter, WRF-CM-BEM). Fig. 1 shows the model domain that covers the area of western
Japan, including Osaka city, which was the focus of our study. Both the d1 and d2 domains consisted of 126 grid points in the x and y
directions. We set the horizontal grid spacing to 5 and 1 km in domains d1 and d2, respectively. The model top was 50 hPa, with 34
vertical sigma levels. In this simulation, the initial and boundary conditions were derived from the National Centers for Environmental
Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis data (Kalnay et al., 1996) and merged with daily real-
time global sea surface temperature high-resolution (RTG-SST-HR) analysis data, with a 0.5◦ horizontal grid spacing (Gemmill et al.,
2007).
The following schemes were used in the simulation: the updated Rapid Radiation Transfer Model longwave scheme (Mlawer et al.,
1997), the Goddard shortwave scheme (Chou and Suarez, 1994; Matsui et al., 2018), the Thompson microphysics scheme (Thompson
et al., 2008), the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ) atmospheric boundary-layer scheme (Mellor and Yamada, 1982; Janjic, 1994, 2002),
the Noah land surface model (Chen and Dhudhia, 2001), and the CM-BEM model (Kikegawa et al., 2003, 2014) for Osaka city only and
for a single-layer urban canopy (Kusaka et al., 2001; Kusaka and Kimura, 2004; Chen et al., 2011) for outside of Osaka city.
As with Ohashi et al. (2016), building footprint (polygon) data from the geographical information system (GIS) in Osaka city were
used to identify building utilisation. These data included the building use and total floor area for each building in Osaka. Land use and
land cover (LULC) data and topographic datasets of the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (GIAJ) were used in this study. In
addition to the GIAJ LULC data, the Osaka City GIS building footprint data, as shown above, were used for this classification. The urban
grids were classified into three categories based on the dominant building type, as shown in Fig. 1c, d: commercial and business grids
(hereafter C), residential grids that predominantly consisted of fireproof apartments (Rr), and residential grids that were chiefly
covered by wooden detached dwellings (Rw). The areas and highways that were off limits to residents during the G20 are shown in
Fig. 1d. Because the forbidden areas were concentrated in the city centre, we defined the area within the grey solid line as a restricted
area. Hereafter, when we analyse category C, for example, we will use only the C grids within this area, and so on.
The model used in this study required the identification of more parameters for detailed building energy calculations. For the
geometric parameters of urban canopies, the mean building width, mean distance between buildings, and distribution of building
height had to be set in every urban grid. These settings were derived from the same building footprint data. For the building energy
simulation, the diurnal variations of the number of occupants, EC for appliances, and air conditioning (AC) systems were based on the
values in the literature for the three-urban categories (Fig. 2). More details of the parameters are described in Ihara et al. (2008),
Kikegawa et al. (2014, 2017), and Takane et al. (2015, 2017, 2019).
As with Kikegawa et al. (2014), the hourly total consumption of motor fuels in each grid with a temporal resolution of 1 h was
estimated using traffic census data (Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism, 2001) and fuel economy data
(Environment Agency of Japan, 1998). The combustion heat was obtained as QF derived from automobiles (hereafter QF,tra).
We also used Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS) data for Osaka (Fig. 1b red star) provided by the Japan

4
K. Nakajima et al. Urban Climate 35 (2021) 100728

Meteorological Agency (JMA) as meteorological data.

The simulation was carried out from 0900 JST (Japan Standard Time; 0000 UTC = 0900 JST) on 11 June to 0900 JST 30 June 2019
(Fig. 3). The first five days were discarded and considered as the model spin-up. In this study, we refer to this simulation as the CTRL
case. The temporal variation in daily average surface air temperature observed at 1.5 m and the daily precipitation at the Osaka
AMeDAS site during the integration period are also shown in Fig. 3. Simulated air temperature is typically verified on clear-sky days in
UHI studies (e.g. Kikegawa et al., 2003, 2017; Salamanca et al., 2014, Xu et al., 2018). Although the WRF-CM-BEM can also simulate
precipitation, the model could not reproduce well the precipitation on 27 June 2019, with a − 12 mm bias and a peak time delay of 7 h.
Therefore, we conducted model verification during 16–29 June 2019, with the exception of 27 June 2019 (Fig. 3).

2.2. Population and traffic data

The population in buildings influences the buildings’ energy consumption. We used Mobile Spatial Statistics (MSS) data on the G20
days (28–29 June 2019) and usual days but the same day of the week (21–22 June 2019) in Osaka city provided by NTT Docomo, Inc.
to estimate the temporal variation in the population during the G20. Note that 21 and 28 June and 22 and 29 June 2019, correspond to
Fridays (working days) and Saturdays (non-working days), respectively. MSS data provide population statistics based on the location
information of 78 million users of NTT Docomo’s mobile terminals. MSS are created from this information as follows. First, the number
of mobile terminals in each of the base station areas are aggregated. Next, the total number of mobile terminals is extrapolated using
the adoption rates of NTT Docomo mobile terminals. Finally, the estimated population is re-aggregated into each grid section. More
details of the estimation method of MSS are described in Terada et al. (2013). The temporal and spatial resolutions of MSS are 1 h and
500 m, respectively. MSS has been used to estimate human activity in other studies, such as those of Odawara and Kawakami (2013)
and Hashimoto et al. (2017). Other population data such as location trends were provided by KDDI, Inc. and the Japan Travel Guide of
NTT Advertising, Inc.; however, their sample numbers are relatively small (Matsubara, 2017). Thus, MSS provides data that are helpful
for examining real-time changes in specific populations.
Fig. 4 shows the temporal variation in the population density from MSS for the C and Rw grids on usual days and G20 days, and the
distribution of the ratio of the daytime (09–18 JST) population density between 21 and 28 June 2019. The daytime population density
on G20 days in the C grids was approximately 10% less than usual (Fig. 4a); by contrast, the Rw grids density was about 1% larger
(Fig. 4b). The density change in the Rr grids was small (not shown). Overall, Osaka’s population density clearly decreased, especially in
the restricted area (black dashed line).
The level of traffic congestion is related to QF,tra, as described earlier. To estimate the traffic amount change during the G20, we
used the traffic counts for general roads at 5 min intervals for 1027 sites in Osaka city in June 2019; data were provided by the Japan
Road Traffic Information Center and its distributions by the Japan Traffic Management Technology Association.
The temporal variation in traffic counts in the city is shown in Fig. 5a. In the daytime on Friday, the traffic density during the G20
(red) was reduced by 33% compared with the usual days (blue) in Osaka city. Fig. 5b shows the distribution of the ratio of traffic
density between usual days and G20 days from 09 to 18 JST (Δtra). The Δtra in the restricted area exceeded 50%.

Fig. 3. Daily variation in precipitation (grey bars) and daily average air temperature (solid line with black circles) at the Osaka AMeDAS site shown
in Fig. 1.

5
 K. Nakajima et al.
6

Fig. 4. Temporal variation in the population density on 21–22 June 2019 (blue: usual days) and 28–29 June 2019 (red: G20 days) in the (a) C and (b) Rw grids. (c) Distribution of the daytime (09–18
JST) population ratio between 21 and 28 June 2019 (ΔPG20). The black dashed line in (d) indicates the restricted area. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is
referred to the web version of this article.)

Urban Climate 35 (2021) 100728

K. Nakajima et al. Urban Climate 35 (2021) 100728

Fig. 5. (a) Temporal variation in the traffic counts of Osaka city on 21–22 June 2019 (blue: usual days) and 28–29 June 2019 (red: G20 days) and
(b) distribution of the decreasing percentage of daytime (09–18 JST) traffic counts between 21 and 28 June (Δtra). The grey lines in (b) indicate the
restricted area and restricted highways. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version
of this article.)

2.3. The G20 restriction case

In addition to CTRL, another case referred to here as G20 was also conducted to estimate the G20 restriction impact in the city. As
the population and traffic count during the G20 differed from those of usual days (Figs. 4 and 5), here we modified the human
behaviour parameters (the number of occupants, EC for appliances, and AC operation schedule) and QF,tra using the population ratio of
G20 days to the usual days (ΔPG20) and the traffic count ratio of G20 days to the usual days (Δtra). The ΔPG20 and Δtra are shown in
Table 1. The modified human behaviour parameters (XG20) of each grid were calculated for working hours (08–22 JST) on G20 days as
follows (Table 1 and Fig. 2):

XG20 CTRL
i,j,t = Xi,j,t × ΔPG20
i,j,t for t = 8, 9, …, 21, 22 JST (1)
CTRL
where i and j are the grid numbers in zonal and meridional direction, t is hours, and X is the human behaviour parameters in
CTRL (see Fig. 2).
Similar to the above-mentioned parameters, the diurnal variation of QF,tra in G20 days (QG20
F, tra) was calculated as follows (Table 1):

QG20 CTRL
F,trai,j,t = QF,trai,j,t × Δtrai,j,t for t = 0, 1, …, 22, 23 JST (2)

where QCTRL
F, tra is QF, tra in CTRL.
The COVID case in Table 1 is discussed in Section 4.1.

Table 1
Population ratio of G20 days to the usual days (ΔPG20), traffic count ratio of G20 days (Δtra), and population ratio of COVID restrictions to Pre-COVID
conditions (ΔPCOVID) in each urban category.
Case name Urban category Average Standard deviation Range

G20 C ΔPG20 0.934 0.082 0.887–1.200

Δtra 0.737 0.141 0.270–1.654

Rw ΔPG20 1.003 0.027 0.883–1.095

Δtra 0.797 0.103 0.572–1.260

Rr ΔPG20 0.981 0.029 0.808–1.080

Δtra 0.779 0.119 0.394–1.760

COVID C ΔPCOVID 0.253 0.097 0.102–0.411

Δtra Same as the G20 case

Rw and Rr ΔPCOVID 1.3 (constant)

Δtra Same as the G20 case

7
K. Nakajima et al. Urban Climate 35 (2021) 100728

C, office buildings; Rw, detached wooden dwellings; Rr, concrete fireproof apartments.

3. Results

3.1. Model verification

Fig. 6 shows the diurnal variation in observed air temperature on the validation days at Osaka AMeDAS site (Obs) and simulated
surface air temperature in the grid, which includes Obs in CTRL. The CTRL roughly reproduced the diurnal variation in air temperature
with 1.05 ◦ C mean absolute error and 0.15 ◦ C mean bias error. These statistical values were nearly the same as those of previous studies
simulated in Osaka (Kikegawa et al., 2017; Takane et al., 2017, 2019), Tokyo (Kikegawa et al., 2014), and Arizona (United States)
(Salamanca et al., 2018).
In general, it is difficult to evaluate the simulated EC due to AC use with a high spatial and temporal resolution, as the data needed
are unobtainable from the electric utility company. Previous verification in EC from AC use by Takane et al. (2017) found the model
reproduced diurnal changes and horizontal distributions in EC well for 12 months (2013–2014) in this city, with root mean square
errors for residential and office areas of 1.4 and 3.7 W floor-m− 2 from a wide range of weather conditions. Kikegawa et al. (2017)
validated the simulated EC in commercial and residential areas in Osaka city. They showed that the WRF-CM-BEM well reproduced the
temporal variation in EC on the weekdays and Saturday in the commercial area [mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) = 16%]. The
model also reproduced the diurnal variation pattern of EC in a residential area. Similarly, the model provided a good representation of
the diurnal variation in EC in Tokyo (Kikegawa et al., 2014), another megacity.
In this study, the model version and settings were the same as those used by Kikegawa et al. (2014, 2017). Given the similar
reproducibility of temperature to this earlier work, we assumed that the model could reproduce EC; thus, the simulated QF,AC should be
reliable as it is calculated from verified EC from AC use.

3.2. G20 restriction impacts

Fig. 7 shows the simulated (a) EC and (b) QF and QF,tra in the C grids. The EC in G20 was 1.9 W floor-m− 2 (6.5%) lower than CTRL
during the daytime on 28 June (09–18 JST) (Fig. 7a). The QF reduction was 15.6 W land-m− 2 (12%) (Fig. 7b). The differences in EC and
QF between CTRL and G20 at 09–18 JST, 28 June are shown in Fig. 7c and d, respectively. The high EC and QF reduction areas
correspond to population reduction areas (Fig. 7c, d versus Fig. 4c). On the other hand, QF was slightly higher on the outskirts of the
city (Fig. 7d). Fig. 8 shows the impact on the daytime QF in the C and Rw grids. In the C grids, ΔQF was due to a reduction in AC use by
nearly half, ΔQF,AC (ΔQF due to AC use), as well as a significant drop in the amount of traffic ΔQF,tra (ΔQF due to traffic), respectively
(Fig. 8a left). In the Rw grids, ΔQF,AC was positive due to the population increase; however, this was negligible compared to the
negative ΔQF,tra (ΔQF due to traffic) for ΔQF, (Fig. 8a right).
The impact of a reduction in traffic on QF was small (7.5 W land-m− 2) (Fig. 8a) because the daytime QF,tra in CTRL accounts for only
11% of QF in the C grids (Fig. 7b). Therefore, the impact of traffic decreasing on QF in the C grids is smaller than that of the population
decrease, which leads to a reduction in building energy consumption.
Fig. 9a shows the temporal variations in the temperature difference from CTRL in each case in the C grids. The temperature dif­
ference between G20 and CTRL had two peaks in the morning and the afternoon of 28 June. A horizontal map of the daytime tem­
perature difference from CTRL on 28 June 2019 in the G20 case is shown in Fig. 9b. The daytime temperature difference averaged for
all the C grids between CTRL and G20 on 28 June was small (0.05 ◦ C), except in areas where the population had decreased sharply

Fig. 6. Diurnal variation in surface air temperature as observed at the Osaka AMeDAS site (circle: Obs) and simulated by CTRL (solid line), averaged
for the validation days (Fig. 3).

8
K. Nakajima et al. Urban Climate 35 (2021) 100728

Fig. 7. Temporal variations in (a) EC and (b) QF and QF,tra (QF due to traffic) averaged for C grids simulated by each case. Horizontal distribution of
G20 restriction impact on (c) EC and (d) QF (the difference between CTRL and G20) on 28 June from 09 to 18 JST.

Fig. 8. (a) Daytime QF difference (ΔQF) between CTRL and G20 averaged for each urban type grid. (b) Same as (a) but for COVID. The dashed lines
in (a) correspond to the ΔQF in summer (see the last paragraph in this section).

9
 K. Nakajima et al.
10

Fig. 9. Temporal variations in (a) surface temperature difference from CTRL in G20 (red) and COVID-19 (blue) for the C grids within restricted areas indicated by dashed lines in (b) and (c). Solid lines
indicate means; red and blue shading indicates one standard deviation. The precipitation period is marked by the grey shading. Distribution of temperature difference from CTRL in (b) G20 and (c)
COVID in the daytime (09–18 JST) on 28 June. The dashed line encloses the restricted area. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of
this article.)

Urban Climate 35 (2021) 100728

K. Nakajima et al. Urban Climate 35 (2021) 100728

Table 2
The impacts of G20 and COVID-19 on daytime EC, QF, and air temperature (09–18 JST) on 28 June at office building (C) grids within restricted
areas (Fig. 1d). ∆ indicates difference from CTRL. Values in parentheses are standard deviations.
Case name ∆EC [W floor-m− 2] ∆QF [W land-m− 2] ∆Temperature [◦ C]

G20 − 1.9 (1.2) − 15.6 (7.9) − 0.05 (0.03)

COVID − 12.0 (1.4) − 76.3 (46.3) − 0.13 (0.07)

(0.1 ◦ C). On the other hand, the temperature increased slightly in residential areas where the population had increased; however, the
influence was negligible (<0.01 ◦ C). The daytime impacts of the G20 on EC, QF, and air temperature in the C grids are summarised in
Table 2.
As explained in Section 2.1, the G20 period was overcast with rainy days. Additionally, we focused on the month of June, which is
usually a non-AC season in Japan (Ohashi et al., 2016; Takane et al., 2017); thus, the G20 impact may have been smaller than it might
have been during the cooling season, which is characterised by consecutive clear-sky days and more extensive AC use. A summer case
using the same parameters of G20 was conducted during consecutive clear-sky days. The ΔQF in this summer case was added in Fig. 8a
by dashed lines; ΔQF was only 3.0 W land-m− 2 larger than that in the G20 case. Thus, the simulated impact of this summer case on air
temperature was nearly the same as the G20 case (not shown). This test simulation implies that our estimation for June would be a
common result.

3.3. Impact of the COVID-19 outbreak

As discussed in Section 3.2, the WRF-CM-BEM can be used to estimate the impact of human behaviour change over several days on
the urban climate. Here we applied this method to the COVID-19 outbreak.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) declared the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) as a global pandemic on 11 March 2020 (WHO,
2020). Worldwide, governments imposed lockdowns. On 7 April 2020, the Japanese government declared a state of emergency and
authorised governors to close their prefectures. The government and local leaders requested that residents stay at home and that
companies close (The Japan Times, 2020). The population in commercial and urban areas decreased sharply after the emergency
measures were enacted (NTT Docomo, INC, 2020), resulting in an abrupt reduction in human activity in these areas and their
surroundings.
Here, we simulated an additional case referred to as COVID (Table 1) to estimate the impact of the pandemic on urban climate. The
integration period, in this case, was the same as the G20 case (Fig. 2). The human behaviour parameters on G20 days were modified in
each urban category using the following population change ratio. Since only the MSS data in a limited area (0.5 km2) were obtained
during this pandemic, the population change ratio during COVID was simply assumed to be uniform in each urban category. The
diurnal variations in the population in the C grids of Osaka city before and during the COVID-19 restrictions are shown in Fig. 10. In
this figure, the period between 18 January and 14 February 2020 was defined as the Pre-COVID period. Friday, 17 April and Sunday,
19 April were used to represent a typical weekday and weekend day during the COVID-19 restrictions, respectively. The daytime
population during the restriction in this area was 75% lower than that in the Pre-COVID period. This hourly population change ratio
was assumed as the population ratio during the Pre-COVID (ΔPCOVID) period in the C grids (Table 1). On the other hand, the data of the
population in the Rr and Rw grids in Osaka city were not yet available. According to Nikkei (2020), the population in Tokyo’s resi­
dential areas increased by about 30%, compared with that before the outbreak. Thus, we assumed that the ΔPCOVID in the Rw and Rr
grids was 1.3 (08–22 JST) (Table 1). Then, the modified human behaviour parameters (XCOVID) for each grid were calculated as
follows:

XCOVID
i,j,t = XCTRL
i,j,t × ΔPCOVID
t , in C grids for t = 8, 9, …, 21, 22 JST (3)

Fig. 10. Temporal variation in the population in a commercial area of Osaka city (approximately 0.5 km− 2). Pre-COVID corresponds to the period
between 18 January and 14 February 2020. The typical weekday and weekend during COVID-19 restrictions were chosen as 17 April (a Friday) and
19 April (a Sunday), respectively. The population data were obtained from MSS via NTT Docomo, Inc.; details are provided in Section 2.2.

11
K. Nakajima et al. Urban Climate 35 (2021) 100728

XCOVID
i,j,t = XCTRL
i,j,t × 1.3, in Rw and Rr grids for t = 8, 9, …, 21, 22 JST (4)

In addition, the QF,tra was also modified. Because traffic count data during COVID-19 restriction were not available, the Δtra in G20
days (Table 1) was applied to this modification.
The effects of COVID-19 restrictions on EC, QF, and air temperature in the C grids are shown in Figs. 7a, b, 8b, 9a, and c. The EC and
QF in the C grids simulated for COVID restrictions were 39% and 42% lower than those of CTRL, respectively (Fig. 7a, b). The surface
air temperature decreased by 0.13 ◦ C (Fig. 9a), and the temperature difference from CTRL in COVID exceeded 0.20 ◦ C in the restricted
area (Fig. 9d). The COVID-19 impact on QF (ΔQF) was 76.3 W land-m− 2 (Fig. 8b left), which was caused mainly by a decrease in QF,AC
(ΔQF,AC). On the other hand, QF increased slightly, due to greater AC use (QF,AC) in the Rw grids (Fig. 8b right). The COVID-19 impact
on the surface air temperature in residential areas was less than 0.01 ◦ C (Fig. 9c).
The COVID-19 restrictions had much larger effects than G20 restrictions on EC, QF, and air temperature at the C grids (Table 2).
Notably, the ∆EC for COVID was 10 times larger than that for G20. In particular, the impact on EC was similar to that found for
electricity-saving measures and the weekday–weekend difference. For example, the Japanese government directed a large portion of
the population to reduce their EC due to the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. Several companies reduced their EC by 20–60%
(Sahori et al., 2013; Tabuchi et al., 2013). Additionally, the weekend EC in the commercial area of Osaka city tends to be 60% lower
than that during the weekdays (Kuroyanagi et al., 2009).
These estimated impacts of COVID-19 on temperature are reasonable compared with statistically estimated values based on
observation (Fujibe, 2020), which indicated a difference in air temperature in central Tokyo of − 0.49 ± 0.19 ◦ C due to COVID-19;
similar temperature decreases were also found in Sendai (− 0.26 ◦ C) and Fukuoka (− 0.17 ◦ C).

4. Discussion

4.1. Magnitude of G20 and COVID-19 impacts

Here we discuss the magnitude of G20 and COVID-19 impacts on the temperatures (Table 2). The simulated impact of the G20
restrictions on air temperature was generally less than 0.1 ◦ C in the restricted area. Next, we compared these impacts with those
reported in previous studies in the relationships between human activity and urban form as a mitigation strategy for UHIs.
The weekday–weekend difference in air temperature is 0.2–0.3 ◦ C in Tokyo and 0.1–0.2 ◦ C in Osaka (Fujibe, 2010). Similarly,
downtown Osaka air temperature is 1.0 ◦ C lower on the weekend than during the weekday (Ohashi et al., 2016). During the Chinese
New Year, the temperature difference between urban and rural areas in Beijing is 0.3–0.6 ◦ C lower than normal (Dou and Miao, 2017).
Similar temperature differences have been reported for Australia (0.1–0.2 ◦ C) (Earl et al., 2016) and Germany (0.13–0.37 ◦ C) (Bäumer
and Vogel, 2007). The G20 impact was much smaller than that of these differences.
The effects of the urban development scenarios in the future (e.g. Adachi et al., 2014; Yang et al., 2016; Kusaka et al., 2016) and
historical urbanisation (e.g. Kusaka et al., 2000; Tokairin et al., 2010) on UHI have also been simulated. For example, Adachi et al.
(2014) showed that the average night-time air temperature in central Tokyo decreased by 0.1 ◦ C and increased by 0.1 ◦ C in the
dispersed- and compact-city scenarios, respectively. The temperature difference between urban and rural areas increased by 0.1 ◦ C and
decreased by 0.4 ◦ C in the dispersed- and compact-city scenarios in Beijing, respectively (Yang et al., 2016). Daytime air temperature
was found to increase by 0.6 ◦ C due to the extension of the Jakarta urban area (Tokairin et al., 2010). To compare these, the G20
restriction impact on air temperature was also much smaller.
On the other hand, the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on the air temperature exceeded 0.1 ◦ C; in the centre of the city, the impact
exceeded 0.2 ◦ C. This impact is comparable to the above-mentioned weekday–weekend difference, human movement, and UHI
mitigation strategies. According to Muhammad et al. (2020), several countries reported a reduction in air pollution of up to 30% due to
COVID-19. COVID-19 created a human health crisis and disrupted the global economy; these effects are ongoing at the writing of this
report. However, the COVID-19 pandemic may have also provided a temporal positive effect on urban environments, and its influences
suggest the means to potentially reduce EC and UHI in the future.

4.2. Impact of population changes on EC, QF, and temperature

As discussed above, the impact of COVID-19 was much greater than that of the G20 restrictions. This finding suggests a relationship
between the magnitude of the change in human activity and that of its impact. Fig. 11 shows the relationships between population
change percentage and differences in daytime EC, QF, and air temperature compared with CTRL. Lower populations were associated
with decreases in EC, QF, and air temperature in each urban category. According to the regression formulas for the C grids, a 10%
population decrease led to decreases in EC, QF, and air temperature of 1.67 W floor-m− 2, 9.29 W land-m− 2, and 0.012 ◦ C, respectively.
In residential areas, the Rw and Rr grids were less sensitive to population decrease (gradients in Fig. 11) than the C grids due to their
smaller total energy consumption and population. This relationship implies that suppressing human activity in areas dominated by
office buildings could act as a countermeasure to mitigate UHIs and energy consumption. The gradients used in this study were based
on a sophisticated model, and may be useful for calculating simple estimates of the impacts of population change on EC, QF, and
temperature.

12
 K. Nakajima et al.
13

Fig. 11. Relationships between population change and daytime changes in (a) EC, (b) QF, and (c) air temperature in the C (red), Rw (green), and Rr (orange) grids. Error bars for the COVID-19 case
indicate one standard deviation. Solid lines indicate regression lines. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

Urban Climate 35 (2021) 100728

K. Nakajima et al. Urban Climate 35 (2021) 100728

4.3. Limitations of this study

Our model was able to set building morphology parameters in each grid based on building footprint (polygon) data. The model also
simulated the coefficient of performance (COP), which is a key value for EC and QF calculations. As the COP is sometimes assumed to
be constant (e.g. Salamanca et al., 2014, Takane et al., 2017, 2019), this calculation is a benefit of our urban climate simulations.
However, there were limitations in terms of the horizontal heterogeneity of human behaviour. Specifically, the human behaviour
parameters in the G20 case were modified in all grids using high spatial resolution population (MSS) and traffic data (Table 1). In
contrast, these parameters in the COVID case were simply modified using population data for specific commercial areas and a constant
population change ratio for residential areas. It would be preferable to represent population changes for each grid in the COVID case, as
was done for the G20 case (Fig. 4). In addition, we assumed the same amount of traffic for both the COVID and G20 cases (Table 1). As a
result, the horizontal diversity of impacts due to COVID-19 restrictions may have been underestimated. Future studies should estimate
COVID-19 impacts using data with high spatial resolution.

5. Conclusion

G20 provided an ideal opportunity to understand the impact of human activity on urban climate. During the G20, the population
and the traffic in the commercial and business (C) grids of Osaka city decreased by 10% and 33%, respectively, due to traffic regulation
and entrance restriction for several areas. Here we estimated the G20 restriction impact on urban climate using WRF-CM-BEM.
The daytime EC and QF decreased 1.9 W floor-m− 2 (6.5%) and 15.6 W land-m− 2 (12%) in the C grids due to the restrictions,
respectively. Nearly half of ΔQF was caused by a reduction of air-conditioning use (ΔQF,AC). Due to the QF reduction (ΔQF), the surface
air temperature decreased by about 0.05 ◦ C in the C grid. In contrast, the impact on air temperature in residential areas was negligible
(<0.01 ◦ C). The above G20 impacts are smaller than the weekday–weekend difference in temperature, mass human movement, and
UHI mitigation strategies reported in the literature.
Similar to the G20 event, the impact of COVID-19 restrictions was also simulated. In this simulation, the population and the traffic
in the C grids were assumed to decrease by 75% and 33%, respectively. The reductions in EC, QF, and temperature in the C grids were
39%, 42%, and 0.13 ◦ C, respectively, which were all larger impacts than those observed during the G20 restrictions. In addition, the air
temperature decrease due to COVID-19 restrictions was comparable to the above-mentioned weekday–weekend difference, human
movement, and UHI mitigation strategies.
Our simulations of the G20 and COVID-19 events showed clear relationships between population change percentage and differ­
ences in EC, QF, and air temperature. Therefore, we applied simple regression formulas for the C, Rw, and Rr grids, based on a so­
phisticated model. These formulas may be useful for calculating simple estimates of the impacts of population change on EC, QF, and
temperature, based solely on population change and urban category data.
As discussed above, the WRF-CM-BEM is capable of estimating the impact of human behaviour change on urban climates. The
method proposed in this study can be applied to other regions and other cases such as the Tokyo metropolitan area and other met­
ropolises in the world for the COVID-19 outbreak and Tokyo 2020 (+1) Olympics.

Author statement

Yuya Takane conceived the study and designed the analyses. Yasuko Furuta and Hiroki Takamatsu provided important data. Ko
Nakajima conducted the simulations and analysis. Ko Nakajima and Yuya Takane wrote the original manuscript and Yukihiro Kike­
gawa provided comments, feedback and revisions to the manuscript.

Declaration of Competing Interest

All the authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Acknowledgement

This study was supported by the Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20191009) of the Envi­
ronmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan.

References

Adachi, S.A., Kimura, F., Kusaka, H., Duda, M.G., Yamagata, Y., Seya, H., Nakamichi, K., Aoyagi, T., 2014. Moderation of summertime heat island phenomena via
modification of the urban form in the Tokyo metropolitan area. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 53 (8), 1886–1900. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0194.1.
Bäumer, D., Vogel, B., 2007. An unexpected pattern of distinct weekly periodicities in climatological variables in Germany. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 (3), 10–13. https://
doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028559.
Chen, F., Dhudhia, J., 2001. Coupling and advanced land surface-hydrology model with the Penn State-NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: model implementation
and sensitivity. Mon. Weather Rev. 129 (4), 569–585. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0569:CAALSH>2.0.CO;2.
Chen, F., Kusaka, H., Bornstein, R., Ching, J., Grimmond, C.S.B., Grossman, C.S., Loridan, T., Manning, K.W., Martilli, A., Miao, S., Sailor, D., Salamanca, F., Taha, H.,
Tewari, M., Wang, X., Wyszogrodzki, A.A., Zhang, C., 2011. The integrated WRF/urban modelling system: Development, evaluation, and applications to urban
environmental problems. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2158.

14
K. Nakajima et al. Urban Climate 35 (2021) 100728

Chou, M., Suarez, M.J., 1994. An efficient thermal infrared radiation parameterization for use in general circulation models. NASA Technical Memorandum 104606, 3
(85pp).
Dou, J., Miao, S., 2017. Impact of mass human migration during Chinese New Year on Beijing urban heat island. Int. J. Climatol. 37 (11), 4199–4210. https://doi.org/
10.1002/joc.5061.
Earl, N., Simmonds, I., Tapper, N., 2016. Weekly cycles in peak time temperatures and urban heat island intensity. Environ. Res. Lett. 11 https://doi.org/10.1088/
1748-9326/11/7/074003.
Environment Agency of Japan, 1998. The survey result on automobile exhaust unit rate and total amounts.
Fujibe, F., 1987. Weekday-weekend differences of urban climates part 1: temporal variation of air temperature and other meteorological parameters in the central part
of Tokyo. J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. 65 (6), 923–929. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.65.6_923.
Fujibe, F., 2010. Day-of-the-week variations of urban temperature and their long-term trends in Japan. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 102 (3), 393–401. https://doi.org/
10.1007/s00704-010-0266-y.
Fujibe, F., 2020. Temperature anomaly in the Tokyo metropolitan area during the COVID-19 (coronavirus) self-restraint period. In: Scientific Online Letters on the
Atmosphere (SOLA). https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2020-030.
Gemmill, W., Katz, B., Li, X., 2007. Daily real-time, global sea surface temperature - high-resolution analysis at NOAA/NCEP. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/MMAB Office Note
260, 1–39.
Hashimoto, T., Hayakawa, Y., Suzuki, A., 2017. Analysis on change of visitors before and after the open of high speed rail using mobile spatial statistics. J. East. Asia
Soc. Transp. Stud. 12, 959–974. https://doi.org/10.11175/easts.12.959.
Huang, K., Zhuang, G., Lin, Y., Wang, Q., Fu, J.S., Fu, Q., Liu, T., Deng, C., 2013. How to improve the air quality over megacities in China: pollution characterization
and source analysis in Shanghai before, during, and after the 2010 World Expo. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 13 (12), 5927–5942. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5927-
2013.
Ichinose, T., Shimodozono, K., Hanaki, K., 1999. Impact of anthropogenic heat on urban climate in Tokyo. Atmos. Environ. 33, 3897–3909. https://doi.org/10.1016/
S1352-2310(99)00132-6.
Ihara, T., Kikegawa, Y., Asahi, K., Genchi, Y., Kondo, H., 2008. Changes in year-round air temperature and annual energy consumption in office building areas by
urban heat-island countermeasures and energy-saving measures. Appl. Energy 85 (1), 12–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2007.06.012.
Janjic, Z.I., 1994. The step-mountain eta coordinate model: further developments of the convection, viscous sublayer, and turbulence closure schemes. Mon. Weather
Rev. 122 (5), 927–945. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0927:TSMECM>2.0.CO;2.
Janjic, Z.I., 2002. Nonsingular implementation of the Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 scheme in the NCEP Meso model. NCEP Office Note 437, 61pp.
Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, 2001. Nation-wide road traffic condition study (road traffic census), Fiscal 1999.
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R., Chelliah, M.,
Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K.C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Jenne, R., Joseph, D., 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Am.
Meteorol. Soc. 77, 437–471. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.
Kikegawa, Y., Genchi, Y., Yoshikado, H., Kondo, H., 2003. Development of a numerical simulation system toward comprehensive assessments of urban warming
countermeasures including their impacts upon the urban buildings’ energy-demands. Appl. Energy 76 (4), 449–466. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0306-2619(03)
00009-6.
Kikegawa, Y., Tanaka, A., Ohashi, Y., Ihara, T., Shigeta, Y., 2014. Observed and simulated sensitivities of summertime urban surface air temperatures to
anthropogenic heat in downtown areas of two Japanese major cities, Tokyo and Osaka. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 117 (1), 175–193. https://doi.org/10.1007/
s00704-013-0996-8.
Kikegawa, Y., Yamakawa, Y., Tokutake, E., Ohashi, Y., Takane, Y., Ihara, T., Nabeshima, M., 2017. Validation of a numerical urban weather forecasting model coupled
with a building energy model in terms of the reproducibility of solar irradiance and electricity demand. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers. Ser. G
Environmental Research 73 (2), 57–69. https://doi.org/10.2208/jscejer.73.57 (in Japanese with English abstract).
Kimura, F., Takahashi, S., 1991. The effects of land-use and anthropogenic heating on the surface temperature in the Tokyo metropolitan area: a numerical
experiment. Atmos. Environ. 25B (2), 155–164. https://doi.org/10.1016/0957-1272(91)90050-O.
Kuroyanagi, H., Ohashi, Y., Kikegawa, Y., Oka, K., Shigeta, Y., Hirano, Y., Kusaka, H., Chen, F., 2009. Influence of differences in urban structure and electric power
demand on atmospheric thermal environment in Osaka urban area. Annual journal of Hydraulic Engineering, JSCE 53, 289–294 (in Japanese with English
abstract).
Kusaka, H., Kimura, F., 2004. Thermal effects of urban canyon structure on the nocturnal Heat Island: numerical experiment using a Mesoscale model coupled with an
urban canopy model. J. Appl. Meteorol. 43 (12), 1899–1910. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2169.1.
Kusaka, H., Kimura, F., Hirakuchi, H., Mizutori, M., 2000. The effects of land-use alteration on the sea breeze and daytime Heat Island in the Tokyo metropolitan area.
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II 78 (4), 405–420. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.78.4_405.
Kusaka, H., Kondo, H., Kikegawa, Y., Kimura, F., 2001. A simple single-layer urban canopy model for atmospheric models: comparison with multi-layer and slab
models. Bound.-Layer Meteorol. 101, 329–358. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019207923078.
Kusaka, H., Suzuki-Parker, A., Aoyagi, T., Adachi, A.S., Yamagata, Y., 2016. Assessment of RCM and urban scenarios uncertainties in the climate projections for august
in the 2050s in Tokyo. Climate Change 137 (6), 427–438. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1693-2.
Li, Y., Wang, W., Wang, J., Zhang, X., Lin, W., Yang, Y., 2011. Impact of air pollution control measures and weather conditions on asthma during the 2008 Summer
Olympic Games in Beijing. Int. J. Biometeorol. 55 (4), 547–554. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0373-6.
Matsubara, N., 2017. Grasping dynamic population by “Mobile Spatial Statistics”: From the viewpoint of tourism disaster and stranded persons. Journal of
Information Processing and Management 60 (7), 493–501. https://doi.org/10.1241/johokanri.60.493 (in Japanese with English abstract).
Matsui, T., Zhang, S.Q., Lang, S.E., Tao, W.K., Ichoku, C., Peters-Lidard, C.D., 2018. Impact of radiation frequency, precipitation radiative forcing, and radiation
column aggregation on convection-permitting West African monsoon simulations. Clim. Dyn. 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4187-2.
Mellor, G.L., Yamada, T., 1982. Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problems. Rev. Geophys. Space Phys. 20 (4), 851–875. https://doi.
org/10.1029/RG020i004p00851.
Mlawer, E.J., Taubman, S.J., Brown, P.D., Iacono, M.J., Clough, S.A., 1997. Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model
for the longwave. Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres 102 (14), 16663–16682. https://doi.org/10.1029/97jd00237.
Muhammad, S., Long, X., Salman, M., 2020. COVID-19 pandemic and environmental pollution: a blessing in disguise? Sci. Total Environ. 728 https://doi.org/
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138820.
Nikkei, 2020. https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO58237880Y0A410C2EA2000/ (last accessed July 29, 2020).
NTT Docomo, Inc., 2019. https://mobaku.jp/analysis/2019/1024_47.html (last accessed July 29, 2020).
NTT Docomo, Inc., 2020. https://mobaku.jp/covid-19/ (last accessed July 29, 2020).
Odawara, T., Kawakami, H., 2013. Using mobile spatial statistics in field of urban planning. Docomo Technical Journal 14 (3), 16–23.
Ohashi, Y., Ihara, T., Kikegawa, Y., Sugiyama, N., 2016. Numerical simulations of influence of heat island countermeasures on outdoor human heat stress in the 23
wards of Tokyo, Japan. Energy and Buildings 114, 104–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2015.06.027.
Sahori, D., Masaki, A., Otake, M., Torido, S., Akama, K., 2013. A study on the power reduction effects of teleworking with office shutdown. Journal of Japan Telework
Society 11 (2), 4–18. https://doi.org/10.24505/jats.11.2_4.
Sailor, D., 2010. A review of methods for estimating anthropogenic heat and moisture emissions in the urban environment. Int. J. Climatol. 31 (2), 189–199. https://
doi.org/10.1002/joc.2106.
Salamanca, F., Georgescu, M., Mahalov, A., Moustaoui, M., Wang, 2014. Anthropogenic heating of the urban environment due to air conditioning. Journal of
Geophysical Research Atmospheres. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021225, 5949–5965.

15
K. Nakajima et al. Urban Climate 35 (2021) 100728

Salamanca, F., Zhang, Y., Barlage, M., Chen, F., Mahalov, A., Miao, S., 2018. Evaluation of the WRF-urban modeling system coupled to Noah and Noah-MP land
surface models over a semiarid urban environment. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 123 (5), 2387–2408. https://doi.org/10.1002/
2018JD028377.
Sankei, 2019. https://www.sankei.com/affairs/news/190630/afr1906300019-n1.html (last accessed July 29, 2020).
Skamarock, W.C., Klemp, J.B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D.O., Baker, D.M., Duda, M.G., Huang, X.Y., Wang, W., Powers, J.G., 2008. A description of the advanced research
WRF version 3. NCAR/TN-475+STR, pp133.
Tabuchi, S., Hiraoka, M., Komoda, H., Iwahashi, Y., Tsushima, S., Tanabe, S., 2013. Effect of saving measures on power consumption reduction energy conservation
based on field survey in summer power-saving office buildings after the Great East Japan Earthquake. J. Environ. Eng., AIJJ 78, 793–798. https://doi.org/
10.3130/aije.78.793 (In Japanese with English abstract).
Takane, Y., Kusaka, H., Kondo, H., 2015. Investigation of a recent extreme high-temperature event in the Tokyo metropolitan area using numerical simulations: the
potential role of a ‘hybrid’ foehn wind. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 141, 1857–1869. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2490.
Takane, Y., Kikegawa, Y., Hara, M., Ihara, T., Ohashi, Y., Adachi, S.A., Kondo, H., Yamaguchi, K., Kaneyasu, N., 2017. A climatological validation of urban air
temperature and electricity demand simulated by a regional climate model coupled with an urban canopy model and a building energy model in an Asian
megacity. Int. J. Climatol. 37 (1), 1035–1052. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5056.
Takane, Y., Kikegawa, Y., Hara, M., Grimmond, C.S.B., 2019. Urban warming and future air-conditioning use in an Asian megacity: importance of positive feedback.
NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci. 39, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0096-2.
Takane, Y., Ohashi, Y., Grimmond, C.S.B., Hara, M., Kikegawa, Y., 2020. Asian megacity heat stress under future climate scenarios: impact of air-conditioning
feedback. Environ. Res. Commun. 2, 015004. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab6933.
Terada, M., Nagata, T., Kobayashi, M., 2013. “Mobile spatial statistics” supporting development of society and industry — population estimation technology using
Mobile network statistical data and applications. NTT Docomo Technical Journal 14 (3), 10–15.
The Japan Times, 2020. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/07/national/japan-coronavirus-emergency-declared/#.Xtnclzr7SUk (last accessed July 29,
2020).
Thompson, G., Field, P.R., Rasmussen, R.M., Hall, W.D., 2008. Explicit forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme. Part II:
implementation of a new snow parameterization. Mon. Weather Rev. 136 (12), 5095–5115. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2387.1.
Tokairin, T., Sofyan, A., Kitada, T., 2010. Effect of land use changes on local meteorological conditions in Jakarta, Indonesia: toward the evaluation of the thermal
environment of megacities in Asia. Int. J. Climatol. 30 (13) https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2138, 19311–1941.
Torrance, K.E., Shum, J.S.W., 1975. Time-varying energy consumption as a factor in urban climate. Atmos. Environ. 10 (4), 329–337. https://doi.org/10.1016/0004-
6981(76)90174-8.
United Nations, 2018. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division.
WHO, 2020. https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/27-04-2020-who-timeline—covid-19 (last accessed July 29, 2020).
Wu, L.Y., Zhang, J.Y., Shi, C.X., 2015. Mass human migration and the Urban Heat Island during the Chinese new year holiday: a case study in Harbin City, Northeast
China. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 8 (2), 63–66. https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2015.11447238.
Xu, X., Chen, F., Shen, S., Miao, S., Barlage, M., Guo, W., Mahalov, A., 2018. Using WRF-urban to assess summertime air conditioning electric loads and their impacts
on urban weather in Beijing. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 123 (5), 2475–2490. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD028168.
Yang, L., Niyogi, D., Tewari, M., Aliaga, D., Chen, F., Tian, F., Ni, G., 2016. Contrasting impacts of urban forms on the future thermal environment: example of Beijing
metropolitan area. Environ. Res. Lett. 11 (3) https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034018.
Zhang, J., Wu, L., 2017. Influence of human population movements on urban climate of Beijing during the Chinese new year holiday. Sci. Rep. 7, 1–8. https://doi.org/
10.1038/srep45813.
Zhang, J., Wu, L., Yuan, F., Dou, J., Miao, S., 2015. Mass human migration and Beijing’s urban heat island during the Chinese new year holiday. Science Bulletin 50
(11), 1038–1041. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-015-0809-9.

16