October 2019

WHITEPAPER

Methodology for Advanced Process Control –

Production Analysis
Authored By:
-
John MacDonald
Subject Matter Expert (SME) Consultant for Mining, Industry Business, AVEVA

Executive Summary
Advanced Process Control is the new advanced process control software. It is a hybrid
rule-based and model-based predictive control (MPC) that connects directly to a wide
variety of automation systems. Advanced Process Control simultaneously controls a
number of process parameters that maintain the product within specification. Taking into
account process dynamics, interactions, constraints and economics, Advanced Process
Control predicts future process behavior and takes control and optimization actions
before product measurements are out of specification.

The focus of this paper is the analysis method used to understand how potential benefits
can be quantified utilizing an operations existing production and downtime data in the
mining industry.
Introduction
In today’s environment, Mining, Minerals & Metals
(MMM) companies are faced with volatile market
swings, soaring energy costs, and an uncertain future.
To meet these challenges, operations are forced to
optimize and make performance improvements that will
positively affect their bottom line. Advanced Process
Control software allows the operation to function much
closer to the operating limits by reducing variations in
the process. This hybrid rule-based and model-based
predictive control (MPC) can often reduce variability
by a standard deviation of two or greater, and as a
consequence, improving profitability.
Advanced Process Control simultaneously controls
a number of process parameters that maintain the
product within specification. Taking into account
process dynamics, interactions, constraints, and
economics, Advanced Process Control for MMM
predicts future process behaviour and takes control and
optimization actions before product measurements are
out of specification, reducing the process variability and
allowing the system to work closer to its limits.
Analysis Method –
Why Weibull Analysis
According to Roberts and Barringer in their paper -
New reliability Tool for the Millennium: Weibull Analysis
of Production Data1
yy Weibull probability plots organize many different
types of data into straight line X-Y plots.
Engineers need data plots, with straight lines, for
comprehension at a practical level. For engineers
and processes owners the relationship is simple–no
cartoon and no comprehension
yy Traditional Weibull analysis carefully separates
different failure modes to get clean data with
suspensions (i.e. the data is censored) so only single
modes of failure are represented in each straight line
Weibull plot. When mixed failure modes are plotted on
a Weibull plot, cusps often appear that give clues to
changes and provide evidence for mixed failure modes.
Process reliability techniques will take advantage of the
cusps to provide information about process reliability

It is these “cusps” or change in line slope which allow us to

Maximum Limit differentiate between “Reliability Issues” and “Efficiency
and Utilization Issues” as demonstrated in Figure 2.

With Advanced Process

Control for MMM

Time

Figure 1: Process control with and without Advanced

Process Control

Figure 2: Example of a Weibull Analysis

Woodrow T. Roberts, Jr.,Ph.D. and H. Paul Barringer, P.E., “New reliability Tool for the Millennium: Weibull Analysis of Production Data”
1

02 Methodology for Advanced Process Control – Production Analysis

The Blue line represents the line of best fit for 12 months
of production data on a daily basis, when plotted crossing
the Target line (y=63.212%) the corresponding x value
(1,680.5 or Scale) indicates the Demonstrated Rate. At
the cusp of the data, the corresponding y value indicates
the Process Reliability. The data to the left of this indicates
the Reliability Losses, while the area between the red and
blue lines indicate the Efficiency and Utilization Losses.

The Red line represents the above data set excluding

targeted outages due to planned outages and process
disturbances. These process disturbances are the
outages or slow runnings that would be targeted by
an Advanced Process Control project. When plotted
crossing the Target line the corresponding x value
indicates the potential increase in tonnes that could
be experienced using and Advanced Process Control.
In this case 1,739.5. The difference between these
(1,739.5 – 1,680.5) indicates the potential improvement
opportunity that exists (59 tonnes / day).
Figure 3: Weibull Plot for a cement mill
When plotting the daily tonnage rates against time, it
can be seen in Figure 4 that the Target Improvement
Rate for the mill is well within Operating Limits with
several consecutive days of Production being above
the new overall target rate, and this can be achieved
by targeting the Efficiency and Utilization Losses

Definitions experienced in the plant.

Demonstrated Rate: The production rate which

the operation is currently achieving based on their
production data.

Target Rate: The production rate an operation can

achieve minimizing Efficiency and utilization Losses
with an Advanced Process Control.

Process Reliability: The change in rate of production

(cusp) where Reliability Losses become Utilization
Losses based on an operations production and
downtime data.

Reliability Losses: Those losses associated directly

with outages and failures by the equipment in process.
Efficiency and Utilization Losses: Those losses
associated with the way a process is operated taking
in conditions such as temperatures, pressures, reagent
additions etc.
Case Study
An Australian cement producer had the following
production data for a cement mill for a 12-month
period. Upon undertaking Weibull Analysis, the
Demonstrated Rate (DR) and Target Rate (TR) were
calculated as 1,680.5 (DR) and 1,739.5 (MSR) as
shown in Figure 3.
Figure 4: Time series plot for Advanced Process Control
for MMM
By implementing AVEVA’s Advanced Process Control
for MMM the operation would look to increase
production in the cement mill by around 3.5%.
Targeting the Utilization and Efficiency Losses currently
experienced with simultaneous control of a number of
process parameters that maintain the product within
specification, taking into account process dynamics,
interactions, constraints, and economics, reducing the
process variability and allowing the system to work
closer to its limits.

03 Methodology for Advanced Process Control – Production Analysis

Conclusion
AVEVA has a team of subject matter experts that
provide the knowledge and expertise to analyze
your data to help determine opportunity and business
case to implement the Advanced Process Control
solution. The expertise also extends to the change
management phase to ensure buy in and acceptance
of the business process change that comes from
implementing this solution.
Our Advanced Process Control for MMM aims to:
yy Predict future process performance based on training
and learning from past performance
yy Take into account multiple input/output and be aware
of process constraints
yy Finds optimal trade-offs when conflicts among the
goals exist
yy Enables the process to be driven closer to active
constraints.
Independent of the underlying technology most of
processes realize the benefits of implementing process
control strategies through three main metrics:
yy Maximize production rate and value
yy Minimize energy consumption per unit of product
(specific energy consumption)
yy Improve yield or recovery per unit of feed, while
yy Maintaining sustainable and safe operation
04
Using our consulting services, we can quickly:
yy Use your production data and identify the potential
improvement opportunity
yy Understand the Reliability of your process
yy Target Efficiency and Utilization Losses, and
yy Taking all this into account Stabilize and Optimize
your process
As an outcome of the consulting study, you will receive
a report that includes:
yy Data collection and analysis
yy The Business Case and Return on Investment
calculations
yy A functional design for Advanced Process Control
application for your process
yy An implementation plan for your Advanced Process
Control application, including
yy Defined methodology for deployment involving step
testing, model identification and controller build, site
implementation and commissioning and Validation,
Acceptance and Training
Methodology for Advanced Process Control – Production Analysis
For more information on Advanced Process Control
please visit: aveva.com/advanced-process-control
MMM customers worldwide benefit from Schneider
Electric Software solutions, for more information,
please visit: aveva.com
Contact us
For more information about Advanced Process Control
for MMM, please contact:
John MacDonald – SME Consultant (MMM):
john.macdonald@aveva.com
Phil Ciezak – Business Development Manager (MMM):
phil.ciezak@aveva.com
aveva.com
About the Author
John MacDonald is the Subject Matter Expert (SME)
for Mining in AVEVA. A graduate of Australia’s
Swinburne University of Technology, he has over
20 years of experience in the mining industry. John
started his career in the geological field before
moving into business improvement, production
reporting and reconciliation, and information
technology roles for Mining companies. For the
last 5 years he has been focused on the sales,
design and implementation of MES and business
supporting solutions for AVEVA.developing campaign
promotions and messaging besides managing
creatives for various strategic initiatives.
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