Pageoph, Vol.

115 (1977), Birkh~iuser Vertag, Basel

Stress Accumulation and Release

on the San Andreas Fault 1)

By D. L. TURCOTTE2)

Summary The San Andreas fault can be divided into locked and free sections. On the locked sections
accumulated slip is released in great earthquakes. On the free sections slip is occurring continuously either
aseismically or during smaller earthquakes. Stress drops during earthquakes can be estimated from the ratio of
short to long period amplitudes and from surface strain. Surface heat flow may provide an upper bound on
the absolute stress. The failure or yield stress must reach a maximum at some depth on the fault. This
maximum may occur in the near-surface brittle zone or deeper in the plastic zone of the fault. The historic
distribution of seismic activityprovides information on the stress level. The accumulation of strain and stress
on the fault can be predicted using elastic theory. It is necessary, however, to include the viscous coupling of
the lithosphere to the asthenosphere in order to fully model the problem.
Key words: Stress in lithosphere; San Andreas fault;Viscoelastic relaxation.

1. Introduction

T h e San A n d r e a s fault stretches a l m o s t the entire length o f the state o f C a l i f o r n i a as

s h o w n in Fig. 1. G r e a t e a r t h q u a k e s are k n o w n to occur on the San A n d r e a s , the last on
A p r i l 18, 1906. In terms o f plate tectonics the San A n d r e a s is believed to a c c o m m o d a t e
lateral sliding between the Pacific a n d N o r t h A m e r i c a n plates. A n u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f the
time d e p e n d e n c e o f relative m o t i o n across the fault is essential to u n d e r s t a n d i n g the
b e h a v i o r o f the fault.
O n some sections o f the fault there is little seismic activity, the fault a p p e a r s to be
l o c k e d a n d strain is being a c c u m u l a t e d . O n o t h e r sections o f the fault, small
e a r t h q u a k e s and aseismic creep relieve at least a fraction o f the a c c u m u l a t i n g strain. O n
the l o c k e d sections o f the fault the a c c u m u l a t e d strain a p p e a r s to be relieved in g r e a t
e a r t h q u a k e s . T h e r e is n o evidence t h a t great e a r t h q u a k e s occur on the sections where
the strain is being c o n t i n u a l l y relieved.
I t is a p p r o p r i a t e to divide the fault into f o u r sections: these are the n o r t h e r n l o c k e d
section, the central free section, the s o u t h e r n l o c k e d section, a n d the s o u t h e r n free
section, A c o o r d i n a t e system is i n t r o d u c e d to m e a s u r e distance a l o n g the fault; its
origin is at the center o f the central free section as s h o w n in Fig. 1. T h e central free
section extends 280 k m f r o m near C h o l a m e to R e d w o o d City j u s t south o f San

1) Contribution No. 588 of the Department of Geological Sciences, Cornell University.

2) Department of Geological Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853, USA.
414 D.L. Turcotte (Pageoph,

42~

\'~x LOCKEDSECTIONS
tfCAPE~ll FREE SECTIONS
" " " ~ _ MENDOCl
I X=-475NKM
O o CIRCLE OF
~POINT
DPOZGNATD~I~ \ ~ 40 N ROTATION

_", \,\o
SAN FRANCISCOI'~\ " NORTH
X--14OKi~ '~]~ REDWOOD C=TY\ \ AMERICAN
",\ ~,,.~,, ~.~ PLATE

PACIFIC \ ~ ~ \

34"~N ~ , . \~ ~'~ ~BERNA

~R~) r~iO% "X f

\
\

Figure l
The lockedand free sections of the San Andreas fault are shown. Distances are measured from the center of
the central freesection. Alsoshownare two circlesof rotation for the motion of the Pacificplate relative to the
North American plate about the pole of rotation given by MINSTERet al. (1974).

Francisco. Fault creep and small earthquakes occur in this section of the fault
continuously.
The northern locked section extends about 330 km from Redwood City to Cape
Mendocino. A fault break was reported for the entire length of this section in the 1906
earthquake and the measured surface displacements are given in Fig. 2. There has been
no reported fault creep or earthquake on this section of the fault since 1906. Clearly this
section is locked and is accumulating slip. The southern locked section extends some
350 km from Cholame to near San Bernardino. There are reports of a fault break along
the entire length of this section in 1857. Since then, no fault creep or earthquakes have
been reported on this section. Although the magnitude 7.7 Kern County earthquake of
1952 and the magnitude 6.4 San Fernando earthquake in 1971 occurred near this
section, it is reasonable to conclude that this section of the San Andreas is locked and
that slip has accumulated since 1857.
Vol. 115, 1977) Stress Accumulation and Release on the San Andreas Fault 415

39~ N 38~ 37~

I I I 8

6
E
02
0

0
o( 4~
0
n,-
O0

oo
0 0
2
0
0
o 0
o o
o

I I I I i I I o O
- 400 -300 - 200 qO0 o
DISTANCE ALONG FAULT, km

Figure 2
Surface displacements on the San Andreas fault during the April 18, 1906 earthquake (after THATCHER,
1975a). The solid line is the predicted displacement on the northern locked section assuming that 5.5 cm/yr
accumulated since the earthquake of 1838.

South of San Bernardino the San Andreas fault splays off into a series of faults.
Small and moderate earthquakes and fault creep occur on a number of these and it
appears that this section of the fault is not locked.

2. Tectonic significance of the San Andreas fault

There is no question that the San Andreas fault represents a major boundary
between the Pacific and North American plates. If the fault accommodates the relative
motion between the two plates then it must lie on a small circle about the pole of
rotation that defines the relative motion of the plates. Taking the pole of rotation
(50.9~ - 66.3~ given by MINSTERet al. (1974), two circles of rotation are compared
with the trend of the fault in Fig. 1. The good agreement between the circles of rotation
and the general trend of the San Andreas fault is evidence that the fault is the primary
boundary between the Pacific and North American plates.
WOODFORD and MCINTYRE (1976) have obtained a best fit for a small circle to the
San Andreas fault and have found that the resulting pole of rotation deviates
considerably from the pole position given by MINSTER et al. (1974). This approach,
however, fails to take into account the tectonic significance of the bends in the San
Andreas fault. As shown in Fig. 1, the straight sections of the fault are in good
416 D.L. Turcotte (Pageoph,

agreement with the pole of rotation given by MINSTERet al. (1974). The convergence of
the plates at the bend in the fault north of Los Angeles requires thrusting and this has
resulted in the formation of the Transverse Ranges.
Studies utilizing marine magnetic anomalies have shown that the relative velocity
between the Pacific and North American plates is 5.5 cm/yr (ATWATERand MOLNAR,
1973). This velocity is an average over several million years. The most recent data point
is the last reversal of the earth's magnetic field about 700,000 years ago. If it is
hypothesized that this velocity is representative of the motion between the plate on a
time scale of hundreds of years and if it is further hypothesized that a large fraction of
this velocity occurs across the San Andreas fault, several conclusions and predictions
can be made.
A major earthquake occurred in northern California during late June 1838.
LAUDERBACK(1947) has carried out a study of this earthquake using the available
sources of information - diaries, books, etc. He concluded: 'This study has convinced
me that the earthquake of June, 1838, was the next preceding earthquake correspond-
ing to the earthquake of April, 1906, involving a major fault-trace phenomenon along
the central (and perhaps northern) Coast Range course of the San Andreas fault.'
If the 1838 earthquake relieved the accumulated slip on the northern section of the
San Andreas fault, assuming a relative velocity across the fault of 5.5 cm/yr, the
accumulated slip in 1906 would have been 3.74 m. This predicted slip is compared with
the measured surface slip during the 1906 earthquake (THATCHER, 1975a) in Fig. 2.
Although there is considerable scatter, reasonable agreement is obtained.

t, my BP
40 30 20 Io o
I I I I o o

0
0 lO0
0

200 .~
0
C)

300
O

O
O
5 5cm/yr 5
400

Figure 3
Dated geologicaloffsetson the San Andreas fault after GRANIZand DICKINSON(1968).
Vol. 115, 1977) Stress Accumulation and Release on the San Andreas Fault 417

This approach can also be used to predict the accumulated slip on the San Andreas
fault at the present time. On the northern section, 2.8 m of slip has accumulated since
1906. The southern section of the San Andreas fault between Cholame and San
Bernardino is also apparently a locked section. A great earthquake with large surface
displacement was recorded on this section on January 9, 1857 (WooD, 1955). Since that
time 6.5 m of slip has accumulated.
Although considerable evidence can be presented supporting the hypothesis that
5.5 cm of slip accumulated on the locked sections of the San Andreas fault each year,
evidence to the contrary is also available. Geological evidence for offsets on the San
Andreas fault has been summarized by GRANa'Zand D~CK~NSON(1968). Their results are
compared with the 5.5 cm/yr in Fig. 3. It is seen that the geological evidence favors a
considerably smaller slip velocity on the fault.
Direct measurements of the creep velocity on the central section of the San Andreas
fault have been carried out. These results have been summarized by SAVAGE and
BVRVORD (1971) and the mean of the observations is 2.28 cm/yr. The change in
astronomical azimuth across the San Andreas fault between Mount Toro and Santa
Ana just south of Hollister has been measured since 1886 (Savage, 1976). The base line
is 53.8 km and it is nearly perpendicular to the fault. The change in shear strain, c~u/@,
between observations is given in Fig. 4. If it is assumed that the two observation points
are on rigid translating plates, the mean velocity across the fault is 3.3 cm/yr.
Certainly a significant fraction of the relative motion between the Pacific and North
American plates takes place on the San Andreas fault. How large this fraction is
remains unresolved.

3. Stress level and fault rheology

An understanding of the rheology of the rock in and adjacent to the San Andreas
fault is essential to a full understanding of the fault. Certainly the fault must penetrate
the full lithosphere. However, the nature of the fault at depth is likely to be entirely
different from the nature of the fault at the surface. At low temperatures and low
lithostatic pressures, rock behaves in an elastic-brittle manner. The occurrence of
earthquakes to depths of about 15 km indicates a brittle-like behavior. However, there
may be little resemblance between the rheological behavior of homogeneous rock and
the behavior of a relatively wide fault zone made up of fault gauge (broken and
fractured rock). The stress drop during a great earthquake is some fraction of the stress
level that can be transmitted across the fault gauge before failure occurs.
Based on studies of seismograms, Brune and Allen (1967) suggested an average
stress drop of 70 bars in the 1906 earthquake. The surface stress drop during the 1906
earthquake can be estimated directly from surface displacements. A least square fit to
observed displacements has been given by Knopoff (1958)
u = 0.72 x lO-3[(y 2 + {3.2 x 1 0 5 } 2 ) 1/2 - fY[] (1)
418 D.L. Turcotte (Pageoph,

0.8
I 0 I

0.6
bu
~Y,
~U s'frain 0 . 4
year

0.2

0 I ;001 m I I I I I I
I 1950
year
Figure 4
Strain accumulation (relative motion) between Mount Toro and Santa Ana (separation 53.8 km) after
SAVAGE(1976). Horizontal bars represent intervals between measurements of astronomical azimuth.

with the displacement u and the distance from the fault y in cm. Taking the shear
modulus in the crust G = 3 x 1011 dyne/cm 2 and

0u
ax, = (7 ~y (2)

we find that the surface stress drop axy = 216 bars.

Another source of information on the stress level on the San Andreas fault is the
heat flow. Heat production on the fault per unit area q due to friction is related to the
mean stress on the fault 8~y and the velocity across the fault u by

q = ~-~ru (3)

Detailed calculations of the surface heat flow resulting from frictional heating on a
strike slip fault have been given by H~NYEYand WASSERBURC(1971). The surface heat
flow is elevated by approximately the frictional heating over a width equal to the depth
over which the heating takes place.
Both HENYEY and WASSERBURG(1971) and LACHENBRUCHand SASS (1973) have
concluded that there is no measurable heat flow anomaly in the immediate vicinity of
the fault although there is a broader heat flow anomaly associated with the fault which
has a width of about 100 km and a magnitude of 0.5-1.0 h.f.u.
Taking the maximum heat flow anomaly which would escape detection in the
immediate vicinity of the fault to be q = 0.5 h.f.u, and u = 5.5 cm/yr, the maximum
mean stress on the fault from (3) is about 100 bars. It should be noted that the transport
of heat by ground water circulation has not been considered. Since the fault gauge is
quite porous convective cooling could be important in the transport of frictional heat.
Therefore, this upper limit for the stress on the fault must be used with caution.
Vol. 115, 1977) Stress Accumulation and Release on the San Andreas Fault 419

On the deeper portion of the fault displacements must occur by plastic deformation.
The behavior of the fault is critically dependent on the failure and yield stress on the
fault as a function of depth. Is the deeper plastic zone stronger than the near-surface
brittle zone? The failure stress is probably related to a coefficient of friction. Since the
hydrostatic pressure increases with depth, it is expected that the failure stress will
increase with depth. However, the temperature also increases with depth. And with
increasing temperature the yield stress decreases.

4. Seismicity

The record of seismicity on and adjacent to the San Andreas fault should also
provide information on the state of stress. High levels of seismic activity should be
indicative of high stress levels.
The felt intensities of earthquakes associated with the San Andreas fault system are
given in Fig. 5 as a function of latitude for the time period from 1880 to 1972. All
earthquakes of intensity 5 or larger which were centered within 100 km of the San
Andreas fault are included. For the period between 1880 and 1928 the Townley and
Allen Catalog of California Earthquakes was used. For the period between 1929 and
1972 the Catalog of United States Earthquakes published by the U.S. Coast and
Geodetic Survey (since 1969 by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis-
tration) was used. Results prior to 1880 were not used because of inadequate data.
From 1880 to 1930 the Rossi-Forel scale of felt intensities was used. From 1931 to 1972
the modified Mercalli intensity scale of 1931 was used. The extent of the 1906 fault
break and the division of the fault into sections are also shown in Fig. 5.
It is clear from Fig. 5 that there is some reporting bias in the data, particularly for
the smaller events. This is to be expected since the great increase in the number of
seismometers in California in the last 20 years has greatly improved the recording of
earthquakes. However, despite the variation in the quality of the data there are some
very clear trends illustrated. The most obvious is the reduction in the number of small
and intermediate size earthquakes adjacent to the northern locked section following
the 1906 earthquake. This reduction is strong evidence that the stress level in the elastic
lithosphere adjacent to the northern locked section was significantly reduced in the
1906 earthquake. This reduction of stress is consistent with the hypothesis that the
maximum stress is transmitted in the elastic-brittle lithosphere and that this stress is
relieved during a great earthquake and its subsequent aftershock sequence. The
alternative hypothesis that the maximum stress is transmitted beneath the brittle region
and that it actually is increased after a great earthquake would allow a reduction of
stress only in the immediate vicinity (a few tens of kilometers) of the fault. The stress
and therefore the seismicity at distances of, say, 20-100 km from the fault would not be
affected.
420 D.L. Turcotte (Pageoph,
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Vol. 115, 1977) Stress Accumulation and Release on the San Andreas Fault 421

Returning to Fig. 5, there appears to be a systematic increase in the number of

intermediate size earthquakes adjacent to the southern locked section. This is probably
due to an increase in the stress level on this section of the fault. However, it does not
appear that this increase is sufficiently systematic to be of use in predicting when a great
earthquake will occur on the southern locked section. As the strain and stress increase
in the elastic plates adjacent to the southern locked section, stress concentrations occur
causing earthquakes. This is particularly true in the vicinity of the bend in the San
Andreas north of Los Angeles. Because of the bend, simple strike-slip motion on the
San Andreas cannot completely relieve the accumulating strain. Deformation
associated with the Transverse Ranges and their associated fault systems is required.
The Kern County earthquake of 1952 and the San Fernando earthquake of 1971 are
examples of this deformation.
It is also clear from Fig. 5 that there are a considerable number of earthquakes on
the central and southern free sections of the fault during the entire period. This is
consistent with the hypothesis that a significant fraction of the accumulating strain is
being continuously relieved on these sections.

5. Elastic models

In order to understand the cyclical accumulation and release of stress and strain on
the San Andreas fault it is necessary to hypothesize appropriate models. A two-
dimensional model for the accumulation and release of slip on a strike-slip fault has
been proposed by Turcotte and Spence (1974). In this model the upper part of the fault
was assumed to be locked (zero displacement) and the lower part of the fault zone was
assumed to be free sliding (zero shear stress). An analytical solution for the distribution
of stress and strain was given. During a great earthquake the accumulated stress and
strain was assumed to be relieved.
Implicit in this model is the assumption that the failure stress on the locked brittle
zone is large compared with the yield stress on the deeper plastic zone. After a great
earthquake the remaining stress on both the upper brittle zone and the lower plastic
zone is small compared with the initial stress on the initially locked brittle zone before
the earthquake. This assumption has been questioned by SAVAGE(1975) who proposed
a transfer of stress between the upper brittle zone and the lower plastic zone. No
quantitative calculations of the expected consequences of this model have been given.
In order to explain the longitudinal behavior of the San Andreas fault a three-
dimensional model for the accumulation and release of stress and strain was proposed
by SPENCEand TURCOTa'E(1976). This model is illustrated in Fig. 6. Two semi-infinite
plates acted on by shearing forces were assumed to be sliding freely past each other
except for two locked sections. The northern and southern locked sections were
assumed to be locked to a depth d. At greater depths the fault was assumed to be free
sliding as well as on other sections of the fault. Using the technique of matched
422 D.L. Turcotte (Pageoph,

Figure 6
Illustration of the elastic model for strain accumulation on the San Andreas fault after SPENCE and
TURCOTTE (1976). Two semi-infinite plates are sliding past each other except for the two shaded locked
sections.

asymptotic expansions, analytic expressions were obtained for the three-dimensional

distribution of strain and stress.
Assuming that a relative plate velocity of 5.5 cm/yr is applied 1000 km away from
the fault, the surface strain accumulation in the region x > 0 and y > 0 is given in Fig.
7. This corresponds to the strain on the east side of the southern locked section. The
strain accumulation is given in terms of the components

8Ux BUy ~ 8uy

])1- 8X By' 72- oy -~ 8X (4)

as introduced by Frank (1966). The coordinate system is centered on the center of the
central free section as in Fig. 1. It should be noted that the analysis is for a straight fault
so that the bend in the San Andreas north of Los Angeles is not considered.
Many measurements of strain adjacent to the San Andreas fault have been carried
out (SAVAOEand BuRvORI), 1970, 1973; TI~AXC~tEg, 1975a, 1975b). Although in some
cases the accumulation of strain between two points appears to increase linearly with
time, the point to point correlation of strain accumulation reveals considerable scatter;
see for example TURCOXTEand SVENCE(1974). This scatter can be attributed to regional
variations in topography and elastic properties and to local faults. However, the
magnitudes of the strain accumulation given in Fig. 7 are in reasonable agreement with
the observations.
A primary conclusion from Fig. 7 is the large strain and stress accumulation at the
tips of the locked sections of the fault. This result is consistent with the observations of
Wvss and B Rt:N~ (1971 ). Using the ratio of short- to long-period amplitudes to estimate
apparent stress they concluded that the San Bernardino-San Gorgonio Mountain
region is under higher stresses than other portions of the San Andreas fault. This area
corresponds closely to the southern end of the southern locked section.
According to the elastic analysis the locked sections impede the lateral sliding
between the plates. The plate interactions extend large distances from the locked
Vol. 115, 1977) Stress Accumulation and Release on the San Andreas Fault 423

400

Y
km 200

200 400 600 800

x, km
(u)

Y
km 200

200 400 600 800

x, km
(b)
Figure 7
Surface strain accumulation in the region x > 0 and y > 0:

(a) 71 = Oux/cqx - Ouy/Oy; (b) 72 = c~uJc3Y + OuS~3x.

Contours are in units of g strain/yr. Results taken from SPENCE and TURCOTTE (1976).

sections. The analysis suggests that the locked sections reduce the creep on the central
free section below the relative velocity between the plates. This is in agreement with the
creep measurements given by SAVAGE and BURFORD (1971). The mean of their
observations is 2.28 _+ 1.37 cm/yr. According to the theory the accumulating slip would
be relieved by accelerated creep after great earthquakes. It should be noted that the
observations (SAVAGE,1976) of the azimuth change across the San Andreas fault
between Mount Toro and Santa Ana as illustrated in Fig. 4 do not show an acceleration
of creep after the 1906 earthquake.
424 D.L. Turcotte (Pageoph,

Certainly the elastic analysis can only be approximately valid. The viscous coupling
with the asthenosphere will tend to damp out sudden seismic displacements and the
propagation of stress will be by a diffusion mechanism rather than by a seismic wave.
The distance Ys that stress will diffuse in a time t is given approximately by (BoTT and
DEAN, 1973)

ys = (Gbdt/~) 1/2 (5)

where dis the thickness of the lithosphere and b and t/are the thickness and viscosity of
the asthenosphere. Taking G = 3 x 1011 dyne/cm 2, r/ --= 4 x 102o dyne sec/cm 2, d
= 100 km, b = 300 km, and t = 100 yr, the value of y~ from (5) is 270 kin. The
oscillatory motions on the fault would be expected to be damped out several hundred
kilometers into the plate.

6. Cyclical behavior

If the locked sections of the San Andreas fault provide the primary resistance to the
lateral sliding between the two plates, a cylindrical behavior is suggested. Between great
earthquakes there is no relative displacement between the Pacific and North American
plates on the northern and southern locked sections. Slip is accumulating through
elastic strain in the plates. Slip occurs continuously on the central and southern free
sections.
The accumulated slip on the locked sections is relieved in great earthquakes. All
relative displacements between the surface plates on the locked sections must occur as
slip during great earthquakes. Great earthquakes occur sequentially. When a great
earthquake occurs on one locked section, the stress on this section is relieved. However,
a fraction of the stress may be transferred to the other locked section. The central free
section acts as a buffer zone between the two locked sections.
The cyclical behavior of the San Andreas fault since 1838 is illustrated in Fig. 8. For
simplicity, equal units of slip are assumed between great earthquakes. Just prior to the
1838 earthquake on the northern locked section, two units of slip had accumulated on
the northern locked section and one unit of slip (1 A) had accumulated on the southern
locked section, In the 1838 earthquake the two units of slip were relieved on the
northern locked section and a new phase of slip accumulation began. Between 1838 and
1857 one additional unit of slip accumulated on the northern and southern locked
sections. Two units of slip were relieved on the southern locked section during the 1857
earthquake. Between 1857 and 1906 an additional unit of slip accumulated on t h e
locked sections. Two units of slip were relieved on the northern locked section during the
1906 earthquake. Since 1906 an additional unit of slip has accumulated on the locked
sections. The next great earthquake on the San Andreas fault will relieve the two
accumulated units of slip on the southern locked section.
Vol, 115, 1977) Stress Accumulation and Release on the San Andreas Fault 425

PRE 1838

L~ ............ \ POST 1838

PRE 1857

~ .:::...~ POST 1857

, oe

3A

-v.:'-.'-~ POST 1906

~ 1976

Figure 8
Illustration of the cyclicalbehavior of the San Andreas fault. The Pacificplate (P) is slidinglaterally past the
North American plate (A) in increments of A. Accumulated slip on the northern locked section was relieved
in 1838 and 1906 and on the southern locked section in 1857.

7. Conclusions

There are several i m p o r t a n t questions that m u s t be answered before a complete

u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the San A n d r e a s fault can be developed.

(1) W h a t is the m e a n velocity of m o t i o n on the fault? Is it the relative plate velocity

of 5.5 c m / y r or is it a small fraction of this? The next great e a r t h q u a k e o n the fault
should answer this question or it m a y be answered by direct observations of
displacements.
426 D.L. Turcotte (Pageoph,

(2) What is the distribution of stress on the fault as a function of depth before and
after a great earthquake? Is the failure stress in the near-surface brittle lithosphere
larger or smaller than the yield stress in the deeper plastic lithosphere?
(3) What is the ratio of the stress drop during a great earthquake to the absolute
stress transmitted across the fault? Is significant stress transmitted across the fault on
the free sections? Does a great earthquake reduce the regional stress level?
(4) Is there a transfer of stress between the northern and southern locked sections of
the fault? If there is a transfer, then seismic activity on the two sections is coupled,
otherwise there is probably no dependence of the seismic risk in the northern section to
the state of stress and seismicity on the southern section.

Acknowledgments

This research has been supported in part by the Division of Earth Sciences, National
Science Foundation, NSF Grant EAR 74-03259 and the U.S. Geological Survey,
Department of the Interior, under USGS Grant No. i4-08-001-G-385.

REFERENCES

ATWATER, T. and MOLNAR, P., Relative motion of the Pacific and North American plates deduced from sea
floor spreading in the Atlantic, Indian, and South Pacific Oceans, in Proceedings of the Conference on
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(Received 1st November 1976)