forecasts

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SHORT-RANGE FORECAST — no reliable method exists for making short-range

— to provide a earning to the location and magnitude of earthquake predictions

a large earthquake within a narrow frame — not feasible

— used by Japan, U.S., China, and Russia

— concentrated by monitoring the precursors LONG-RANGE FORECAST

*precursors - event or changes that precede a — estimate of how likely it is for an earthquake of a
forthcoming earthquake and thus may provide warning* certain magnitude to occur on a time scale of 30-100
CALIFORNIA years or more

— monitor the ground elevation — statistical estimate of the expected intensity of

ground motion for a given specified time frame
— variations in strain levels near the active faults
— not informative
*strain levels - force that pull or stretch along active
faults* — useful for providing important guides for building
codes
— measure the change in groundwater levels
SEISMIC GAPS
— increase in the frequency of foreshocks
— quiet zone
JAPAN AND CHINA
— thought tp be inactive zones that are storing elastic
— anomalous animal behavior strain that will eventually produce major earthquakes
*animals are more sensitive to ground shaking* PALEOSEISMOLOGY

— study of ancient earthquake waves

“everyone hopes that animals can tell us
something we don’t know… but animal — study of timing, location, and pre-historic earthquakes

behavior is way to unreliable” Walter — digging of trenches across a suspected fault zone >
looking for evidences of ancient faulting
Mooney, seismologist for USGS
— offset of sedimentary strata (San Andreas fault)

accuracy and reliability

— small range of uncertainty in regard to location and

timing might produce few failures or false alarms

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