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6.0 6.15 BI also reaffirmed the direction of the policy mix in 2023. BI will use
5.5
monetary policy to maintain stability (pro-stability). Meanwhile, to support
5.0
4.5
growth (pro-growth), BI will use macroprudential policies, digitalization of
payment systems, deepening money markets, and other economic
programs.
FR0090 FR0091 FR0093 FR0092
BI believes that banking and economic liquidity are sufficient to encourage credit expansion and further economic recovery. Credit
growth in November 2022 was recorded at 11.16% (YoY), supported by positive growth in all types of credit and most economic
sectors. Banking liquidity in November 2022 was supported by growth in Third Party Funds (DPK) of 8.80% (YoY). In November
2022, the ratio of Liquid Assets to Third Party Funds (AL/DPK) remained high, reaching 30.42%, thus supporting the availability of
funds for banks to channel credit to the economy. The AL/DPK ratio increased compared to the previous October, which was
recorded at 29.46%.
BI is preparing to execute the final transaction for purchasing SBN on the primary market of IDR 128.58 trillion as part of the SKB III
to fund the health and humanitarian budget in the 2022 APBN. From the beginning of 2022 to December 21, 2022, BI purchased
IDR 144.53 trillion of SBN consisting of SKB I implementation amounting to IDR 49 .11 trillion and SKB III implementation
amounting to IDR95.42 trillion.
From global indicators, US Treasury yields tend to increase while Indonesia's CDS recorded a slight decrease. The 5-year UST yield
curve increased 3bps to 3.80%, while the 10-year UST yield curve increased 2bps to 3.68%.
Considering the current market conditions and yield curve valuation, we estimate that FR0063, FR0070, FR0077, FR0044, FR0081,
FR0040, FR0037, FR0047, FR0052, FR0054, FR0045, and FR0057 will be attractive to investors.
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Fixed Income Research
23 December 2022 Daily Report
8.00
7.00 FR0097
FR0098
FR0096
FR0095
(%)
6.00
5.00
Yield Curve
YTM
4.00
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00
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Fixed Income Research
23 December 2022 Daily Report
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Fixed Income Research
23 December 2022 Daily Report
2.5
(%)
(%)
6.00 6.0
2.0
5.0 1.5
5.00 1.0
4.0
0.5
3.0 0.0
4.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 20 30
Maturities (Year)
22-Dec (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month) 10-year Indo Gov't Yield Yield Spread 10-year UST Yield (RHS)
Maturities (Year) 22-Dec (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month) Global Bonds 22-Dec
1 5.58 5.61 5.66 6.20 22-Dec (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month)
2 5.81 5.83 5.84 6.45 Fed Fund Rate & US Bond Yield
3 6.34 6.35 6.45 6.68 Fed Fund Rate 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.00
4 6.65 6.64 6.70 6.97 2-Year 4.28 4.22 4.24 4.48
5 6.15 6.15 6.12 6.44 5-Year 3.80 3.77 3.62 3.89
6 6.56 6.58 6.54 6.89 10-Year 3.68 3.66 3.45 3.70
7 6.70 6.70 6.73 7.00 30-Year 3.74 3.72 3.50 3.73
8 6.87 6.89 6.88 6.99 10-Year Government Bond Yield (LCY)
9 7.18 7.20 7.18 7.21 Germany 2.36 2.31 2.08 1.85
10 6.90 6.90 6.86 6.95 UK 3.59 3.57 3.24 3.03
15 6.78 6.78 6.85 7.09 France 2.90 2.84 2.59 2.29
20 7.11 7.11 7.12 7.10 Italy 4.47 4.43 4.15 3.66
30 7.23 7.23 7.26 7.43 Greece 4.49 4.45 4.15 4.06
Spain 3.42 3.39 3.15 2.79
CDS, VIX Index, IDMA Index Japan 0.39 0.47 0.25 0.24
22-Dec (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month) China 2.87 2.71 2.91 2.80
5-year Indo CDS 101.80 102.96 95.32 112.01 Malaysia 4.04 4.04 4.01 4.18
VIX Index 21.97 20.07 22.83 20.42 Thailand 2.68 2.68 2.60 2.75
IDMA Index 97.32 97.30 97.29 96.52 Singapore 2.89 2.89 2.96 3.03
Government Securities Ownership As of December 21, 2022 (IDR Trillion)
Holders Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 2-Dec-22 9-Dec-22 14-Dec-22 15-Dec-22 19-Dec-22 20-Dec-22 21-Dec-22
Banks 1,591.1 1,691.4 1,432.5 1,602.7 1,646.5 1,791.1 1,800.9 1,803.2 1,774.6 1,772.5 1,763.8 1,751.1 1,704.4
Banks -net of Govt sec for mon ope 1,171.8 1,237.7 1,200.0 1,267.7 1,274.5 1,271.9 1,278.3 1,275.4 1,271.6 1,271.6 1,270.8 1,269.9 1,266.9
Bank Indonesia 801.5 731.6 1,012.7 988.6 952.1 805.9 802.4 797.9 822.6 824.4 832.4 844.2 887.9
BI (gross) 1,220.7 1,185.3 1,245.1 1,323.6 1,324.2 1,325.1 1,325.1 1,325.8 1,325.5 1,325.3 1,325.3 1,325.3 1,325.3
Gov't sec for monetary operation 419.3 453.7 232.4 335.0 372.1 519.2 522.6 527.8 503.0 500.9 493.0 481.2 437.5
Mutual Fund 157.9 154.3 153.4 156.1 152.7 147.0 146.5 145.0 144.3 144.2 144.1 143.6 144.5
Insurance & Pension Fund 655.2 735.1 772.7 843.7 862.4 870.3 870.9 872.2 872.5 872.6 872.2 872.0 872.1
Foreign Investor 891.3 848.3 780.2 730.3 713.2 736.9 737.0 756.2 758.5 758.7 759.9 761.2 763.2
Individual 221.4 270.8 281.9 324.8 340.9 344.4 345.0 344.2 342.6 342.7 342.8 342.9 343.1
Others 360.5 397.1 414.8 455.3 463.1 466.8 466.8 466.1 466.5 466.5 466.5 466.5 466.4
Total 4,679.0 4,828.6 4,848.1 5,101.4 5,131.0 5,162.5 5,169.5 5,185.0 5,181.6 5,181.6 5,181.6 5,181.6 5,181.6
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Fixed Income Research
23 December 2022 Daily Report
RESEARCH TEAM
Amir A. Dalimunthe Head of Fixed Income Research Dept. amir.dalimunthe@bnisekuritas.co.id Ext. 2098
(Fixed Income Market, Government Bond)
Ahmad Hapiz Fixed Income Analyst ahmad.hapiz@bnisekuritas.co.id Ext. 3978
(Fixed Income Market, Corporate Bond)
Andri Zakarias Siregar Head of Technical Analysis Research Dept. andri.zakarias@bnisekuritas.co.id Ext. 2054
(Market Strategy, Currency, Commodities, Bond & Stocks)
R. Venia Allani Meissalina Research Administrator venia.allani@bnisekuritas.co.id Ext. 2050
Indah Lestari Permata Herlina Research Administrator indah.lestari@bnisekuritas.co.id Ext. 2073
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Fixed Income Research
23 December 2022 Daily Report
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Fixed Income Research
23 December 2022 Daily Report
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