1.

Input -->
P&L assumptions

Selected case 2

FY14 FY15
INR in Crores Actual Actual
Revenue 98,548 81,753
Revenue growth % -17.0%

Case 1
Case 2
Case 3

Cost of materials consumed (45,239.6) (34,689.1)

% of revenue 46% 42%

Case 1
Case 2
Case 3

Marketing & Other Operating Expenses (31,926.8) (29,971.7)

% of revenue 32% 37%

Case 1
Case 2
Case 3

Depreciation and amortisation expenses (3,375.4) (3,472.6)

% of revenue 3% 4%

Case 1
Case 2
Case 3
Tax % 35% 35%

Case 1
Case 2
Case 3
 Scenarios:
Case 1 Optimistic
Case 2 Base
Case 3 Worst

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast
91,413 100,096 112,923 116,310 119,800
11.8% 9.5% 12.8% 3% 3%

4% 4%
3% 3%
2% 2%

(38,828.1) (43,268.0) (45,902.3) (50,013) (51,514)

42% 43% 41% 43% 43%

41% 41%
43% 43%
46% 46%

(33,655.0) (35,221.2) (40,459.4) (40,709) (41,930)

37% 35% 36% 35% 35%

32% 32%
35% 35%
37% 37%

(3,536.7) (3,422.5) (3,356.7) (3,457) (3,561)

4% 3% 3% 3% 3%

3% 3%
3% 3%
3% 3%
35% 35% 35% 35% 35%

30% 30%
35% 35%
35% 35%
 FY21 FY22 FY23
Forecast Forecast Forecast
123,394 127,095 130,908
3% 3% 3%

4% 4% 4%
3% 3% 3%
2% 2% 2%

(53,059) (54,651) (56,291)

43% 43% 43%

41% 41% 41%

43% 43% 43%
46% 46% 46%

(43,188) (44,483) (45,818)

35% 35% 35%

32% 32% 32%

35% 35% 35%
37% 37% 37%

(3,668) (3,778) (3,891)

3% 3% 3%

3% 3% 3%
3% 3% 3%
3% 3% 3%
35% 35% 35%

30% 30% 30%

35% 35% 35%
35% 35% 35%
BS assumptions

FY14 FY15 FY16

INR in Crores Actual Actual Actual
Accounts Receivable 991.0 784.2 979.3
DSO 3.7 3.5 3.9

Inventory 8,441.0 8,208.1 9,400.6

DIO 68.1 86.4 88.4

Accounts Payable 7,287.1 7,494.1 7,991.6

DPO 58.8 78.9 75.1

Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) 13.0 11.0 17.2

Net PP&E 34,214.2 31,286.4 29,183.1

% sales 35% 38% 32%
 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
889.7 1,245.9 1,283 1,322 1,361 1,402
3.2 4.03 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

9,024.7 9,655.5 10,520 10,836 11,161 11,496

76.1 76.8 76.8 76.8 76.8 76.8

9,846.4 12,403.7 13,515 13,920 14,338 14,768

83.1 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6

(3.7) (17.8) (18) (18) (18) (18)

27,103.4 25,058.2 25,809.9 26,584.2 27,381.8 28,203.2

27% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22%
 FY23
Forecast
1,444
4.0

11,841
76.8

15,211
98.6

(18)

29,049.3
22%
2.Output -->
P&L

FY14 FY15
Rs in Crores Actual Actual
Revenues 98,548 81,753
Cost of goods sold (45,240) (34,689)
Gross Margin 53,309 47,064
Marketing & Other Operating Expenses (31,927) (29,972)
EBITDA 21,382 17,092
D&A (3,375) (3,473)
EBIT 18,007 13,620
Taxes (6,232) (4,714)
Tax rate 35% 35%
Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT) 11,775 8,906
1.0
 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast
91,413 100,096 112,923 116,310 119,800 123,394
(38,828) (43,268) (45,902) (50,013) (51,514) (53,059)
52,585 56,828 67,020 66,297 68,286 70,334
(33,655) (35,221) (40,459) (40,709) (41,930) (43,188)
18,930 21,607 26,561 25,588 26,356 27,147
(3,537) (3,423) (3,357) (3,457) (3,561) (3,668)
15,394 18,184 23,204 22,131 22,795 23,479
(5,328) (6,365) (8,122) (7,746) (7,978) (8,218)
35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35%
10,066 11,820 15,083 14,385 14,817 15,261
 FY22 FY23
Forecast Forecast Note
127,095 130,908
(54,651) (56,291)
72,444 74,618
(44,483) (45,818)
27,961 28,800
(3,778) (3,891)
24,183 24,909
(8,464) (8,718)
35% 35%
15,719 16,191
Balance Sheet

FY14 FY15 FY16

INR in Crores Actual Actual Actual
Property, plant and equipment 34,214 31,286
Depreciation (3,375) (3,473) (3,537)
Capex 545 1,433
Ending Value 34,214 31,286 29,183

Inventory 8,441 8,208 9,401

Trade receivable 991 784 979
Trade payable 7,287 7,494 7,992
Working Capital 2,145 1,498 2,388
Investment in Working Capital (647) 890
 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast
29,183 27,103 25,058 25,810 26,584
(3,423) (3,357) (3,457) (3,561) (3,668)
1,343 1,312 4,209 4,335 4,465
27,103 25,058 25,810 26,584 27,382

9,025 9,656 10,520 10,836 11,161

890 1,246 1,283.28 1,321.78 1,361.43
9,846 12,404 13,515 13,920 14,338
68 (1,502) (1,711) (1,762) (1,815)
(2,320) (1,570) (209) (51) (53)
 FY22 FY23
Forecast Forecast Note
27,382 28,203
(3,778) (3,891)
4,599 4,737
28,203 29,049

11,496 11,841
1,402.27 1,444.34
14,768 15,211
(1,870) (1,926)
(54) (56)
Cash Flow

FY15 FY16 FY17

INR in Crores Actual Actual Actual
NOPAT 8,905.9 10,065.9 11,819.8
Add: Deprecitaion & Amortization 3,472.6 3,536.7 3,422.5
Gross Cash Flow 12,379 13,603 15,242
Less: Capex (544.8) (1,433.4) (1,342.8)
Less: Investment in working capital 646.7 (890.1) 2,320.3
Net Cash Flow 12,480 11,279 16,220
 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
15,082.8 14,385.1 14,816.6 15,261.1 15,719.0
3,356.7 3,457.4 3,561.1 3,668.0 3,778.0
18,439 17,842 18,378 18,929 19,497
(1,311.5) (4,209.1) (4,335.4) (4,465.5) (4,599.4)
1,570.3 208.8 51.3 52.9 54.5
18,698 13,842 14,094 14,516 14,952
 FY23
Forecast Note
16,190.5
3,891.3
20,082
(4,737.4)
56.1
15,401
DCF Valuation

WACC 9.3%
Growth 2.0%

FY15 FY16
INR in Crores Actual Actual
Net Cash Flow 12,480.4 11,279.1
Discount factor
Present value

DCF value 55,887 29%

Continuing Value 214,366
PV of Continuing value 137,246.0 71%
Enterprise value 193,133.1
Less:Debt 351.4
Add:
Investments 7,333.6
Loans 401.4
Investments 19,251.3
Other current assets 223.9
Current tax assets 188.5
Other non operating financial assets 703.8
Equity Value 220,884.2
Shares outstanding 9.6
Intrinsic Value 22,913.3
 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
16,219.8 18,698.3 13,842.1 14,093.7 14,516.5 14,952.0
0.91 0.84 0.77 0.70
12,661.1 11,791.3 11,108.8 10,465.8

Growth
193,133.1 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
7.2%
8.2%
WACC

9.2%
10.2%
11.2%
 FY23
Forecast Note
15,400.5
0.64
9,860.1
 Cost of Capital

Key Inputs:
Total Equity to Capital
Net Debt to Capital

Calculations:
Risk Free Rate
Equity Beta
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity

Pre-tax cost of debt

Marginal Tax Rate
Cost of Debt

Weighted Cost of Equity

Weighted Cost of Debt

Weighted Average Cost of Capital

Shares outstanding
Share price
Market Cap

Debt
ost of Capital

99.7%
0.3%

6.6%
0.55
5.0%
9.3%

9.0%
35.0%
5.9%

9.3%
0.0%

9.3%

9.64
12,439
119911.96

351.4
3.Sources -->
Income Statement
INR (cr)

Particulars Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16

Sales 101,295 84,304 94,096
Other operating revenues 486 520 650
Excise Duties (3,232) (3,072) (3,332)
Net Revenue 98,548 81,753 91,413
Operating expenses
Cost of materials consumed (45,240) (34,689) (38,828)
Marketing & Other Operating Expense (31,927) (29,972) (33,655)
Total operating expenses (77,166) (64,661) (72,483)
EBITDA 21,382 17,092 18,930
Depreciation and amortisation expens (3,375) (3,473) (3,537)
EBIT 18,007 13,620 15,394
Other Income 873 1,101 1,509
Interest charges (142) (33) (909)
Other non operating items (994) (6,551) (540)
Profit before tax 17,744 8,136 15,454
Tax expense (5,897) (2,504) (5,440)
Profit after tax / Net profit 11,847 5,633 10,014
 Dec-17 Dec-18
101,351 112,162
571 760
(1,826) -
100,096 112,923 Operating item

(43,268) (45,902) Operating item

(35,221) (40,459) Operating item
(78,489) (86,362)
21,607 26,561
(3,423) (3,357) Operating item
18,184 23,204
1,769 2,589 Non Operating item
(919) (1,120) Non Operating item
(641) (385) Non Operating item
18,394 24,290
(6,141) (8,220) Operating item
12,253 16,069
Balance Sheet
INR (cr)

Particulars Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16

ASSETS
NON-CURRENT ASSETS
Net PP&E 34,214 31,286 29,183.1
Other non-current assets 677 706.7
Investments 3,045 3,418 4,743.1
Loans 1,300 627 643.7
Total Non-Current Assets 38,558.3 36,008.5 35,276.6

CURRENT ASSETS
Cash and Cash Equivalents 4,458 4,996 8,800.0
Investments 5,074 9,879 12,813.5
Inventories 8,441 8,208 9,400.6
Trade Receivables 991 784 979.3
Other current assets 152 305 314.6
Current tax assets - 328 27.3
Other non operating financial assets 521 404 492.7
Total Current Assets 19,636.7 24,904.0 32,828.0
TOTAL ASSETS 58,195.0 60,912.5 68,104.6

Particulars Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16

LIABILITIES
NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES
Long Term Debt 154.6 167.9 331.5
Deferred Tax Liability 2,227.2 1,747.0 1,553.4
Other non-current liabilities - - 6.8
Provisions 13,886.6 15,971.7 19,722.1
Equity 28,372.1 30,358.6 32,823.3
Total Non-Current Liabilities 44,640.5 48,245.2 54,437.1

CURRENT LIABILITIES
Short Term Debt 41.1 9.4 -
Other Financial Liabilities - 2,492.7 3,116.4
TradePayables 7,287.1 7,494.1 7,991.6
Other current liabilities 4,095.7 2,164.7 2,021.5
Provisions 2,130.6 506.4 538.0
Total Current Liabilities 13,554.5 12,667.3 13,667.5
TOTAL LIABILITIES 58,195.0 60,912.5 68,104.6
- - -
 Dec-17 Dec-18

27,103.4 25,058.2 Operating item

832.3 718.1 Operating item
5,852.8 7,333.6 Non Operating item
463.5 401.4 Non Operating item
34,252.0 33,511.3

14,574.2 16,100.6 Operating item

13,935.9 19,251.3 Non-Operating item
9,024.7 9,655.5 Operating item
889.7 1,245.9 Operating item
169.6 223.9 Operating item
63.9 188.5 Operating item
715.9 703.8 Non-Operating item
39,373.9 47,369.5
73,625.9 80,880.8

Dec-17 Dec-18

351.4 351.4 Non-Operating item

1,219.6 588.2 Non-Operating item
6.0 5.1 Non-Operating item
22,915.9 24,649.2 Non-Operating item
34,205.9 36,737.4 Non-Operating item
58,698.8 62,331.3

- - Non-Operating item
3,140.2 3,161.8 Non-Operating item
 9,846.4 12,403.7 Operating item
1,065.9 1,411.4 Operating item
874.6 1,572.6 Operating item
14,927.1 18,549.5
73,625.9 80,880.8
- -