Sison (Page 69-72)

8.1 Inductive arguments and statistical generalizations

Inductive argument - an argument whose conclusion is supposed to follow from its
premises with a high level of probability, rather than with certainty.
Inductive arguments are "defeasible," which means that by simply adding more
premises, we can change a strong inductive argument into a weak one.
Keep in mind that while analyzing arguments, we want to know whether the premise is
true as well as how strong the inference is from the premises to the conclusion. By
assessing whether a statistical generalization satisfies specific requirements, we can
determine whether it is true or not.
Any statistical generalization must satisfy two conditions to be considered "good":
 Adequate sample size: the sample size must be large enough to support the
generalization.
 Non-biased sample: the sample must not be biased.
The “adequate sample size” condition and the “non-biased sample” condition are ways
of making sure that a sample is representative.
Sample - a portion of a population.
Population - the totality of members of some specified set of objects or events.
If the sample is representative of the population, the statistical generalization will be
good. When a sample is representative, its characteristics match those of the entire
population.
Inferring to such a generalization is an informal fallacy called “hasty generalization.”
One commits the fallacy of hasty generalization when one infers a statistical
generalization (either universal or partial) about a population from too few instances of
that population. A common example of a hasty generalization fallacy is when someone
provides only one instance of a phenomena occurring and implicitly views that one
instance as being adequate support for a generalization. This is particularly effective
when fear or practical interests are present.
Even if the condition for an acceptable sample size is satisfied, the non-biased sample
condition may not be.
Random sampling is a common sampling method that attempts to avoid any kind of
sampling bias by making selection of individuals for the sample a matter of random
chance. The basic justification of random sampling is that if the sample is representative
if it is truly random. Finding a method of sample selection that doesn't introduce any
bias is the trick to any random sampling methodology. As technology and social factors
change, random sampling techniques have to be updated.
Quiz:
1. It is an argument whose conclusion is supposed to follow from its premises with a
high level of probability, rather than with certainty.
a. Inductive argument
b. Deductive argument
c. Straw man
d. Appeal to emotion

2. Inductive arguments are feasible.

a. True
b. False

3. What are the two conditions that any statistical generalization must satisfy to be
considered "good"?
a. Inadequate sample size and biased sample
b. Adequate sample size and biased sample
c. Inadequate sample size and non-biased sample
d. Adequate sample size and non-biased sample

4. It is the totality of members of some specified set of objects or events.

a. Sample
b. Universe
c. Population
d. Universe

5. If the population is representative of the sample, the statistical generalization will

be good.
a. True
b. False

6. It is a common sampling method that attempts to avoid any kind of sampling bias
by making selection of individuals for the sample a matter of random chance.
a. Systematic sampling
b. Cluster sampling
c. Random sampling
d. Probability sampling
Answers:
1. A
2. B
3. D
4. C
5. B
6. C

Sison (Page 49)

Fallacy
When an argument's premises don't support its conclusion, one is reasoning improperly,
and such arguments are said to as fallacious. Therefore, any mistake in reasoning is a
fallacy in a very broad sense. Similar to this, it's possible to call something "fallacious" if
it's a false thought or belief.
Formal Fallacy - a pattern of mistake that appears in deductive arguments of a certain
specifiable form.
Informal Fallacy - patterns of mistake that are made in the everyday uses of language.
They arise from confusion concerning the content of the language used.
There is no limit to the variety of forms in which that content may appear, and thus
informal fallacies are often more difficult to detect than formal ones. It is language that
deceives us here; we may be tricked by inferences that seem plausible on the surface
but that are not warranted.
Informal Fallacies
Since there are many informal fallacies, it is best to classify them into distinct groups,
each of which has distinguishing characteristics. This fallacies classification is a
controversial subject in logic.
Fallacies of Relevance
Fallacies of relevance are the most numerous and the most frequently encountered.
The premises of the argument are simply irrelevant to the conclusion in these fallacies.
However, they could deceive because they're designed to seem important.
R1: The appeal to the populace
This fallacy is occasionally described as the one committed when making an
emotional appeal, however this definition is so inclusive that it covers most
 relevance fallacies. It is more specifically described as an effort to sway the
majority's opinion in favor of a position by stirring up the emotions of the people.
The baldest of all fallacies, the argument ad populum ("to the populace"), is also
one of the most common. Every demagogue and propagandist use it as their go-
to tool when trying to sway the public's opinion. It is a fallacy because the
speaker (or writer) relies on emotive language and other techniques meant to
generate enthusiasm for or against a cause rather than facts and reasoned
arguments.

Quiz:
1. It is a pattern of mistake that appears in deductive arguments of a certain
specifiable form.
a. Informal Fallacy
b. Formal Fallacy
c. Fallacy
d. Logic

2. What is the term used to describe any error in reasoning?

a. Informal Fallacy
b. Formal Fallacy
c. Fallacy
d. Logic

3. These are patterns of mistakes that are made in the everyday use of language.
a. Informal Fallacy
b. Formal Fallacy
c. Fallacy
d. Logic

4. Fallacies of relevance are made to appear to be relevant so they may deceive.

a. True
b. False
 5. It is the attempt to win popular assent to a conclusion by arousing the feelings of
the multitude.
a. Ad hominem
b. Ad populum
c. Ad superbium
d. Ad metum

Answers:
1. B
2. C
3. A
4. A
5. B