What is Probability? Some may hear probability a few times now, but not truly understand what it is.

Probability, Unsure about the duration of Project activities.

For example: Delayed delivery of goods and materials needed for today’s operation, another is Technical
problem. In terms of technical problem some may encounter this in the industry in Online booking,
Reservation and more.

Probabilistic time estimate

 3 time estimate for each project activity

 Finding which activities have slack time
 This are the activities we can delay without affecting project completion dates

2 ways to find critical path

1. More practical, Calculate expected time for each path

To calculate for expected time we have the formula. Expected time is equal to optimistic time
estimate plus 4 (Most likely time) plus pessimistic time estimate divided by 6
Expected time=
optimistic time † 4 ( most likely time ) ± pessimistic time
6
2. Probabilistic Time estimates

So now we had the recall of the last topic, we’ll now go on to the main topic which is estimating the
probability of completion dates.

To get the variance, the formula of this is:

p−o
a 2=( )²
6
Denotes:

Pessimistic activity time estimate (p)= Longest time period

Optimistic activity time estimate (o)= Shortest time period

Most likely time (m)= Normal or the most reasonable time period

How to get the following

 Expected duration= ∑ op. The sum of all activities

 Standard deviation= x=∑ op
v
Probability of finishing each path at specified time

specified time− path expected completiontime

z=
path standard deviation