8/4/12

Project Scheduling:
Dealing with Uncertain Durations
Lecture 6

•  To know the concept of project management

•  To know the concept of PERT/CPM
•  To be able to construct a PERT/CPM Diagram
through a problem application

Objective

•  there is considerable uncertainty about how much

time actually will be needed for each activity

•  In reality, the duration of each activity is a

random variable having some probability
distribution.

Uncertain Activity
Durations

1  
 8/4/12  

•  Most likely estimate (m) = estimate of the most

likely value of the duration,
•  Optimistic estimate (o) = estimate of the
duration under the most favorable conditions,
•  Pessimistic estimate (p) = estimate of the
duration under the most unfavorable conditions.

PERT Three-Estimate
Approach

•  Project Calendars

•  Description of the Project Scope

•  Project Risks

•  List of Activities

•  List of Resources

PERT Three-Estimate
Approach

Variance

Mean

Mean and the Variance

2  
 8/4/12  

•  durations fluctuate around their means

•  inevitable that the duration of some activities

will be larger than the mean, perhaps even nearly
as large as the pessimistic estimate, which could
greatly delay the project

Mean and the Variance

•  1. What is the mean (denoted by µp) of this distribution?

•  2. What is the variance (denoted by σ2p) of this
distribution?
•  3. What is the form of this distribution?

Three Simplifying
Approximations

•  Simplifying Approximation 1: Assume that the

mean critical path will turn out to be the longest
path through the project network.
•  Calculate the µp

Three Simplifying
Approximations

3  
 8/4/12  

•  Simplifying Approximation 2: Assume that

the durations of the activities on the mean
critical path are statistically independent.
This assumption should hold if the activities
are performed truly independently of each
other.
•  Calculate the σ2p

Three Simplifying
Approximations

•  Calculation of µp and σ2p

•  µp sum of the means of the durations for the

activities on the mean critical path

•  σ2p sum of the variances of the durations for the
activities on the mean critical path

Three Simplifying
Approximations

•  Simplifying Approximation 3: Assume that the

form of the probability distribution of project
duration is a normal distribution

Three Simplifying
Approximations

4  
 8/4/12  

Three Simplifying
Approximations

5