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AM115 Slides Group3 Proj1
AM115 Slides Group3 Proj1
03 04
Analysis Discussion & Conclusion
1. The Introduction
● Vaccination is an effective way to reduce cases in an epidemic as well as
to accelerate the time to reach herd immunity.
● Prioritization for certain groups is a commonly employed vaccination
strategy to optimize the use of vaccines.
● The original SIR model mentioned in class is simple and reasonable but
it fails to capture the effect of vaccination.
● We are going to use two modified SIR models to represent and
compare two possible vaccination strategies:
c Decreases
a1 Increases
c Decreases
a1 Increases
The prioritization strategy is the best when the people in the risk groups are very at risk, and not much
slower speed than the other group in getting the vaccine. Also useful when there is vaccine shortage.
4. Discussion & Conclusion
● Three models:
● Vaccination prioritization strategy is
SIR, SIR with vaccination,
useful in certain scenarios.
SIR with prioritized vaccination.
● The result aligns with our intuition.
● For most values that would be
● If we do not have enough vaccine, or the
observed in real societies and diseases,
risk of S1 is much higher, or the speed of S2
the best strategy is to use the
group getting vaccination is much quicker,
prioritization strategy.
prioritization strategy is useful.
OTHER SOLUTION TO DECREASE THE PEAK OF THE EPIDEMIC:
[2]Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, Diana Beltekian, Edouard Mathieu, Joe Hasell, Bobbie
Macdonald, Charlie Giattino, Cameron Appel, Lucas Rodés-Guirao and Max Roser (2020) -
"Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from:
'https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource]