1.

Problem solving
Problem 1 [2]
The probability that a man leaves his umbrella in any shop he visits is 1/5. After visiting two shops
in succession, he finds he has left his umbrella in one of them. What is the probability that he left his
umbrella in the second shop?
Answer:

First shop Second shop Probability

1
Left umbrella 𝑃(𝐴) =
5

a man
Left umbrella
𝑃(𝐵) =

Did not leave

umbrella
Did not leave
umbrella

A: left in the first shop → 𝑃(𝐴) =

B: left in the second shop → 𝑃(𝐵) =

𝐴 ∪ 𝐵: left in one of them → 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = + =

The probability he left his umbrella in one of two shops given that he left it in the second shop equals
to 1 because if he left it in the second shop, he definitely left it in one of two shops.
→ 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵|𝐵) = 1
Because after visiting two shops in succession, he finds he has left his umbrella in one of them, we
need to find the probability that he left his umbrella in the second shop given that after visiting two
shops in succession, he left his umbrella in one of them.
4
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵|𝐵)𝑃(𝐵) 1 × 25 4
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = = =
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) 9 9
25
The probability that he left his umbrella in the second shop is .
Problem 2 [2]
You have two coins: one is a normal fair coin with heads on one side and tails on the other. The
second coin has heads on both sides. You randomly pick a coin and flip it. The result comes up heads.
What is the probability that you chose the fair coin?

Answer:
Overall, when randomly picking a coin and flipping it, there are 4 equally likely outcomes:
Fair-tails, fair-heads, unfair-heads1, unfair-heads2
Given that we got heads, we can eliminate the first choice. Therefore, there are three equally likely
remaining outcomes, exactly one of which is that we have a fair coin. Hence,
F: having chosen a fair coin
H: got a heads
1
𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐻) 4 1
𝑃(𝐹|𝐻) = = =
𝑃(𝐻) 3 3
4
The probability we chose the fair coin is

Problem 3 [2]

The table below shows the probability distribution of a discrete random variable.

x 0 1 2 3
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) 0.1 p q 0.2
a) Given that 𝑬(𝑿) = 𝟏. 𝟓, find the values of p and q
b) Calculate Var(X)

Answer:

a)
 0.1 + 𝑝 + 𝑞 + 0.2 = 1

→ 𝑝 + 𝑞 = 1 − 0.1 − 0.2 = 0.7 (1)

  𝐸(𝑋) = 1.5

→ 0 × 0.1 + 1 × 𝑝 + 2 × 𝑞 + 3 × 0.2 = 1.5

→ 𝑝 + 2𝑞 = 0,9 (2)

From (1) and (2)

𝑝 + 𝑞 = 0.7 𝑝 = 0.5
→ →
𝑝 + 2𝑞 = 0.9 𝑞 = 0.2

b)

𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = 𝐸(𝑋 ) − (𝐸(𝑋))

 𝐸(𝑋 ) = 1 × 0.5 + 4 × 0.2 + 9 × 0.2 = 3.1

→ 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = 3.1 − (1.5) = 0.85

Problem 4 [3]

A shopkeeper sells electric fans. The demand for fans follows a Poisson distribution with mean 3.2
per week.

a) Find the probability that the demand is exactly 2 fans in any one week.
b) The shopkeeper has 4 fans in his shop at the beginning of a week. Find the probability that
this will not be enough to satisfy the demand for fans in that week.
c) Given instead that he has n fans in his shop at the beginning of a week, find, by trial and
error, the least value of n for which the probability of his not being able to satisfy the
demand for fans in that week is less than 0.05.

Answer:

Let X be the number of requests for fans in the week.

a)

X~Po(3.2)
 .
P(X=2) = e-3.2 × = 0.2087
!

The probability that the demand is exactly 2 fans in any one week is 0.2087

b)

The shopkeeper will not satisfy the demand if there are more than 4 requests in the week.

P(X>4) = 1 – P (X≤4)

. . . .
=1–𝑒 ( 1 + 3.2 + + + )
! ! !

= 0.2193

P(shopkeeper will not satisfy the demand) = 0.2193

The probability that this will not be enough to satisfy the demand for fans in that week is 0.2193

c)

Suppose he has 5 fans

He will not satisfy the demand if there are more than 5 requests.

P(X>5) = 1 – P (X≤ 5)

= 1 – (P (X≤ 4) + P (X=5))

. .
= 1 – (0.7806 + 𝑒 × )
!

= 1 – 0.8946

= 0.1054 > 0.05

Suppose he has 6 fans

He will not satisfy the demand if there are more than 6 requests.

P(X>6) = 1 – P (X≤ 6)

= 1 – (P (X≤ 5) + P (X=6))
 . .
= 1 – (0.8946 + 𝑒 × )
!

= 1 – 0.9554

= 0.0446 <0.05

So the least value of n is 6.

Problem 5 [3]

A factory produces a very large number of steel bars. The lengths of these bars are normally
distributed with 33% of them measuring 20.06 cm or more and 12% of them measuring 20.02 cm
or less.

a) Find the mean and standard deviation of the normal distribution.

b) Estimate the proportion of steel bars which measure 20.03 cm or more
c) The bars are acceptable if they measure between 20.02 cm and 20.08 cm. What
percentage are rejected as being outside the acceptable range?

Answer:

a)

𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 20.06) = 0.33 → 𝑃(𝑋 < 20.06) = 0.67

𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 20.02) = 0.12

Using Appendix C-2 we can find out

𝑃(𝑋 < 20.06) = 𝑃(𝑍 < 0.44) = 0.67 𝑜𝑟 67%

.
→𝑍= = 0.44 → 𝜇 = 20.06 − 0.44 × 𝜎 (1)

𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 20.02) = 𝑃(𝑍 ≤ −1.17) = 0.12 𝑜𝑟 12%

.
→𝑍= = −1.17 → 𝜇 = 20.02 + 1.17 × 𝜎 (2)

From (1) and (2) → 20.06 − 0.44 × 𝜎 = 20.02 + 1.17 × 𝜎

 → 1.61 × 𝜎 = 0.04

→ 𝜎 ≈ 0.0248

→ 𝜇 = 20.06 − 0.44 × 0.0248 = 20.049 ≈ 20.05

The mean of the normal distribution is approximately 20.05

The standard deviation of the normal distribution is approximately 0.0248

b)

Find 𝑃(𝑋 < 20.03)

20.03 − 20.049
𝑍= = −0.77
0.0248

Using Appendix C-2

→ 𝑃(𝑋 < 20.03) = 𝑃(𝑍 < −0.77) = 0.2206

→ 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 20.03) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 < 20.03) = 1 − 0.2206 = 0.7794

The proportion of steel bars which measure 20.03 cm or more is approximately 0.7794.

c)

Acceptable range 20.02 < 𝑋 < 20.08

→ Rejection region: 𝑋 ≤ 20.02 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑋 ≥ 20.08

Find 𝑃(𝑋 < 20.08)

20.08 − 20.049
𝑍= = 1.25
0.0248

Using Appendix C-2 we can get 𝑃(𝑋 < 20.08) = 𝑃(𝑍 < 1.25) = 0.8944

→ 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 20.08) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 < 20.08) = 1 − 0.8944 = 0.1056

𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 20.02) + 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 20.08) = 0.12 + 0.1056 = 0.2256 𝑜𝑟 22.6%

22.6% are rejected as being outside the acceptable range.

 2. Data analysis

You are given the data of the height of 1000 American men and women in the file "Heights" that
accompanied this assignment.

a) Calculate the descriptive statistics and draw the histograms for the whole data set and for
each group defined by gender.
b) Compare and contrast the distribution of the height of the two groups. Your answers
should be supported by a few appropriate diagrams.
c) Test at 5% level of significance whether the average height of American men is 178 cm.
d) In a previous study, it has been found that on average American men is 14 cm taller than
women. Test this hypothesis at 5% level of significance.

Answer:

a) Descriptive Statistics and histogram

Descriptive Statistics for Heights of 1000

American men and women

Mean 169.855
Standard Error 0.280425772
Median 170
Mode 177
Standard Deviation 8.867841542
Sample Variance 78.63861361
Kurtosis -0.70089949
Skewness -0.013678777
Range 49
Minimum 146
Maximum 195
Sum 169855
Count 1000
 Descriptive Statistics for Heights of 500 Descriptive Statistics for Heights of 500
American men American women
Mean 176.456 Mean 163.254

Standard Error 0.261214 Standard Error 0.268318762

Median 177 Median 163

Mode 177 Mode 163

Standard Deviation 5.840916 Standard Deviation 5.999789909

Sample Variance 34.1163 Sample Variance 35.99747896

Kurtosis 0.419705 Kurtosis -0.080203816

Skewness -0.09211 Skewness 0.16956333

Range 41 Range 34

Minimum 154 Minimum 146

Maximum 195 Maximum 180

Sum 88228 Sum 81627

Count 500 Count 500

b)

Histogram: Height of 500 women

Histogram: Height of 500 men

Compare and contrast the distribution:

- The distributions of the height of two groups are unimodal. The distribution of the height of
women skewed to the right while the distribution of the height of men skewed to the left, given
that in the distribution of women’s height, the mean is greater than the median while in the
distribution of men’s height the mean is less than the median.

- There are 3 outliers in the distributions of women’s height while this number in men’s
height is 5
 c)

Assume Ho the average height of American men is 178 cm

Assume Ho the average height of American men is not 178 cm

 T= 176,456 – 178
.
√
= -5.912
n= 500 => D.f = 499
 p – value = 0 < α
Reject Ho
There is sufficient evidence to support the claim that average height of American men is not
178 cm.

d)
𝐻𝑜: 𝑀1 − 𝑀2 = 14
Hypothesis:
𝐻𝑜: 𝑀1 − 𝑀2 ≠ 14
( ) ( , , )
t= =
,

= -2,131

( )
DF = = 998
( )( ) ( )( )

t value = -2.14 < -1.96

=> there is sufficient evidence to support the claim that the average height of American men is
not 14 cm taller than women.