5-1 - Early Warning System and On-Site Observation of Debris Flow Disasters

Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB)
Application of Information Technology on Disaster Risk

Reduction and Emergency Preparedness
2012 International Training Workshop for
LY
Natural Disaster Reduction
N
O
Early Warning System and On-site
Observation of Debris Flow Disasters
W
IT
R
Hsiao-Yuan(Samuel) Yin Ph.D.
FO
Section Chief
Soil and Water Conservation Bureau
Council of Agriculture
May 15, 2012

1
Outline
LY
1. Background Introduction
N
2. Debris Flow Early Warning System
O
W
3. On-site Debris Flow Observation
IT
4. Challenges and Future Perspective
R
FO
2
K o re a Introduction
Taiwan is located at the convergent
C h in a boundary of the Eurasian Plate and
LY
the Philippine Sea Plate.
T a iw a n
Eurasian Plate
N
E 121o
Philippine Sea Plate
O
P h ilip p in e s
W
IT
Mountain 46.99% Plains 26.70%
forest lands
R
Hillslopes 27.31% N 23o30’
FO
Slopelands 73.30%
Land Resources Distribution
3
Climate Change Impact

Temperature increases about 1.4℃ in the last 100 years (1901-2006).
Number of typhoons per year increased dramatically after 2000.
From N=3.2(1951-2000) to N=6.8 (2001-2009)
LY
N
O
W
IT
R
FO
The most frequent region of typhoons.

4
Variation of rainfall pattern

of Taiwan in last 50 years Annual rainfall of Taiwan
in the past 50 years
Significant change of rainfall and
dry-rainy seasons increases the
LY
risk of watershed hazards.
Abundant
Rainfall
N
19 yrs 18 yrs 8 yrs 7 yrs
Year
4,000 Annual rainfall does
O
1953 1972 1990 1998 2005
3180mm 3,240mm 3144mm 3322mm 3568mm not change much
W
3,500
Annual Rainfall (mm)
IT
3,000
Rainfall hours have

the tendency to reduce
R
2,500
FO
2,000
1,500
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Drought 1963 1980 1993 2002

Year 1,830mm 1,605mm 1,645mm 1,572mm Rainfall intensity has the
tendency to strengthen
17 yrs 13 yrs 9 yrs 5
Data resource : WRA
Historic Typhoon Disasters in Taiwan
1950 60 70 80 90 1999 2000 01 04 05 07 08 09 10
LY
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
Ji-Ji Earthquake (
58 63 76 87 96 00 01 01 04 04 05 05 07 08 08 09 09 10 10
) Megi
) Xangsane typh.
) Toraji typhoon
) Nari typhoon
) Mindulle
) Aere
) Haitang
) Masha
) Sepat
) Kalmaegi
) Sinlaku
) Parma
) Fanapi
) Winnie typh.
) Gloria typh.
) Billie typh.
) Lynn typh.
) Herb typhoon
) Morakot
O
W
IT
R
99
FO
)
M=7.3 Mainly flood & debris Compound

Mainly flooding disasters flows disasters after Chi- Hazards
Chi Earthquake in 1999 in 2009
6
1996-Herb Debris Flow Disasters in Taiwan

2001-Toraji
LY
N
O
W
2004-Mindulle 2009-Morakot
IT
R
FO
7
LY
2. Debris Flow Early Warning System
N
O
W
IT
R
FO
8
Survey on potential
debris flow torrents Debris Flow Disaster
Delineation of
affected areas Prevention Framework
Inventory of
LY
protected objects Disaster analysis
Software
Hardware
N
Assessment
Feedback
O
Zoning
Feedback
Land use Residential
Engineering Evacuation
W
restrictions Relocation Rainfall warning
threshold
IT
Planning
Drill Rainfall >
R
1. Prevent Promotion Threshold
FO
vulnerability Delimitation Location

factors ↓ ↓
2. Mass energy Announcement Coordination Warning
↓ ↓
transformation Restriction Relocation
3. Diversion
4. Suppression works Evacuation
5. Restrain works
Disaster Info.
9
Investigation of Potential Debris Flow

Torrents & Landslides
 Potential Debris Flow Torrents
1,660 Torrents Potential Debris Historic Landslides
LY
Flow Torrents Distribution
 Landslide Areas
N
46,950 ha
O
W
IT
R
FO
10
Investigation of Potential Human

Activities Hazard
Debris Flow Torrents Disaster
LY
Risk Degree=Probability X Assured Safety
N
Low: Risk≦46, Mid: 46<Risk<62, High: Risk≧62
O
Factors of Probability
W
 Valid watershed area：≧3 ha
before 921 earthquake(1999) adopted 10 ha
IT
 Rock broken extent
 Length of fault, slope… Probability
R
 Upstream collapse area Risk
FO
Low Mid High

Assured Safety Low Low Low High
 Protected Targets: houses, Assured Mid Low Mid High
school, roads, publics, Safety
farms…..etc. High Mid High High
 Including 10o slope deposit range 11
Risk Mapping
Warning Simulation of Debris
Debris Flow Risk Mapping Flow Disaster Condition
LY
Left bank buildings
N
FLO-2D debris flow located in high risk zone
Hazard Zone
O
simulation
Definition return period rainfall
10,100,200 years
W
h >2.5m
High (h*v)max
max>2.5m /s
2
1m<h <2.5m
IT
max Max Depth
Med 1m2/s<(h*v) Max velocity
max<2.5
hmax<1m Distribution Distribution
Low (h*v) <2.5m2/s (v)
R
max (h)
FO
FLO-2D Hazard GIS Layers

Analysis module (Aerial photo,
(hazard distribution) road, buildings)
Risk map of
Debris Flow
12
Identification of the Affected Area in the Field

To check the coverage of To evaluate the coverage of
deposition of debris flow debris flowing route
Real coverage
Post Morakot
LY
高雄縣
高雄縣
N
茂林鄉
那瑪夏鄉萬山村
O
民族村
W
IT
R
FO
Coverage Area of debris flow Disaster:

• After Typh. Morakot: By satellite image processing, 49
additional debris flows (44 caused by Typh. Morakot) are
identified and there will be 1,552 debris flows in total in Taiwan.
Potential hazard area: determined by geology investigation
and site reconnaissance. 13
Evacuation Routes and Drills for Debris Flow

Debris Flow Disaster Mitigation Volunteer Specialist
• 947 Evacuation routes planned
LY
• 649 debris flow evacuation drills held
• 1385 Debris Flow Volunteer Specialists
N
Evacuation Route Map
O
W
IT
R
FO
14
Toll-free Hotline
Debris Flow Emergency Operation Task Force of SWCB
Emergency Response 0800-246-246

during Typhoon (土石流-土石流)
LY
 Typhoon: Real-time weather condition
N
 Rainfall monitoring: Every 10 min
O
 Announce: Debris flow warning
W
Debris flow information system
http://246.swcb.gov.tw IT
R
FO
15
Localized Rainfall-based
Debris-flow Warning Model
 Rainfall Triggering Index (RTI) 在地化雨量警戒模式
LY
＝Rainfall intensity× Effective accumulated rainfall
N
RTI = I × Rt 100000
O
X ：debris flow do not occurred
O ：debris flow occurred
W
Rt：Effective accumulated rainfall 10000 High potential >90% RTI=3600
RTI
IT
＝ Accumulated rainfall RTI90
RTI=1895
＋ Preceding rainfall for 7 days 1000
RTI70
I：Rainfall intensity (mm/hr) Medium potential 10%~90%
R
FO
RTI10
RTI70： RTI at 70% of probability 100
that debris flow occurred RTI=190
Low potential <10%
 The critical accumulated rainfall 10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
for evacuation (Rc) is set for
easier public understanding and Rainfall Events N
local application 16
Does the public understand the

warning model?
LY
The answer is NO.
N
O
 People can understand the accumulated
rainfall, but do not (do not want to)
W
understand the rainfall intensity.
 Weather Bureau reports only the IT
R
accumulated rainfall also.
FO
More simplified model for the public is

needed.
17
Simplified RTI model

The critical RTI-value involves two parameters (I and R) is too academic and
not easy to understand for people living in mountainous areas.
LY
The critical accumulated rainfall (Rc) is set for easier public
N
understanding and application for evacuation.
O
50
W
40
IT
Rc is estimated from the critical RTI- 30
I (mm/hr)
value with a consideration of rainfall
R
intensity of 10 mm/hr, and rounded with
FO
20
50mm as an interval of the critical
RTI90
accumulated rainfall. That is to say for
10
different counties, Rc could be 200, 250, RTI70
300, 350, 400, 450, 500, 550, or 600 mm. RTI10

0
0 100 200 300 Rc 400 500
Rt (mm)
18
Warning criteria Table

Rainfall station 2
Village and (N)：the numbers of
LY
debris flow torrents in the village Rainfall station 1
N
O
W
IT
R
FO
Township Warning Criteria
Numbers of debris flow torrents in township

19
Announcement of Debris Flow

Warning in Taiwan
Rainfall Threshold for Predict Rainfall Real Rainfall
LY
Debris Flow Warning : ＞Threshold ＞ Threshold
200～600mm
N
O
-30hr. -18hr. -12hr.
W
Sea typhoon Sea & land typhoon alarm
alarm
IT Yellow warning Red warning
R
Rainfall
FO
forecast
Advise Evacuation Enforce
Evacuation
Local government Local government should
should Advise the Enforce the evacuation
inhabitant to evacuate. of inhabitants.
20
Debris Flow Warning

and Evacuation
 During the typhoon Morakot period,
the SWCB had issued 21 debris flow
LY
warnings to the public and local
governments based on the real-time
N
weather information from CWB.
O
Debris flow Warning County
W
ravines (City) Town Village
warning
IT
Red alarm 519 R12 61 230
Yellow alarm 338 14 58 163

FO
9,100 people were evacuated by local

governments according to the warning.
Among them, 1,046 people escaped
from the possible casualties. 21
LY
3. On-site Debris Flow Observation
N
O
W
IT
R
FO
22
17 On-site (fixed) debris flow monitoring station

Monitoring Sensors
Rain gauge
Information Display
http://246.swcb.gov.tw
LY
CCD camera Satellite Transmission
N
Spotlight
O
W
Ultrasonic water level meter
IT
R
Wire sensor
FO
Geophone Instrumental cabin

Data-processing
Power-Supply 23
Field Observation Data

Aiyuzih bridge
Debris flow disaster in
Pilotless plane photo(2004/07/12)
Aiyuzih creek, Shenmu
LY
Village after typhoon
N
Mindulle on July 2, 2004.
O
W
IT
R
Landslide area increased
FO
Aerial photo (2002/10)

24
Images from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)

(Aiyuzih creek)
1996 2009
LY
N
O
W
IT
R
FO
25
Allocation of monitoring instruments

Shenmu debris flow monitoring station
Wire sensors
Rain gauge
LY
N
CCD camera
O
Geophone
W
IT
Aiyuzih creek
R
Geology: sandstone & shale
Main channel length: 3.81 Km
FO
Average slope: 26%

Drainage area: 4.1 Km2
26
Field observation data

Rainfall data in Shenmu monitoring station from July 2 to 5, 2004
神木觀測站 7/2~7/5降雨強度及累計雨量圖
LY
120 1400
N
1200
O
100
Rainfall Intensity (mm/hr)
Accumulated Rainfall (mm)

1254 mm 1000
W
整 80 總
點 debris flow 800
累
IT
時積
60 July 2, pm
降降
600
雨雨
R
量 40 量
FO
400
20
200
0 0
2 0 0 4 /7 /1 2 0 0 4 /7 /2 2 0 0 4 /7 /2 2 0 0 4 /7 /2 2 0 0 4 /7 /3 2 0 0 4 /7 /3 2 0 0 4 /7 /4 2 0 0 4 /7 /4 2 0 0 4 /7 /5 2 0 0 4 /7 /5 2 0 0 4 /7 /5
1 6 :0 0 2 :0 0 1 2 :0 0 2 2 :0 0 8 :0 0 1 8 :0 0 4 :0 0 1 4 :0 0 0 :0 0 1 0 :0 0 2 0 :0 0
Time
時間(hr)
27
Rainfall data in Shenmu station (Aiyuzih

creek) from 07:20 to 17:00 on July 2, 2004
神木站 7 月 2 日 07:20~17:00 十分鐘降雨強度與累積雨量圖 Higher wire broke
Preceding rainfall
14 mm/15 hr Second large-scale 16:41 pm
LY
Peak 10-minute rainfall debris flow 16:41 pm
6 200
intensity 5.5 mm
N
180
Rainfall intensity (mm/hr)
O
5
Accumulated rainfall (mm)

十 First small-scale 160 累
分
Lower wire broke debris flow 16:36 pm 積
W
4 140
︵
鐘 09:16 am 120 雨
m
IT
降量
m 3 100
雨︵
︶ 80 m
R
強 2
度 60 m
FO
40 ︶
1
20
0 0
10:20
10:50
11:20
11:50
12:20
12:50
13:20
13:50
14:20
14:50
15:20
15:50
16:20
16:50
7:20
7:50
8:20
8:50
9:20
9:50
Debris flow warning

issued by SWCB 08:40 am 時間 (分
Time )
(hr)
28
Characteristics of debris flows form image data

1. A very low discharge just before the surge May, 2004
2. Accumulation of large boulders at debris flow front

3. Wavy surface of debris flows
LY
4. A rapid decrease of the flow depth behind the front
N
O
W
•the average velocity of front
IT
surge 13 m/sec
•the flow depth of the front
R
surge between 5.5 to 6 m
FO
•maximum particle size about

4 to 5 m
•the average flow depth of 2 m
•flow duration of about 5
minutes 29
Ground vibration generated by debris flow
Debris  During the debris flows, one can
LY
flows hear a roaring sound and
experience ground vibration (or
N
so called underground sound).
O
Ground  → New way for early warning of
W
Vibration
debris flows occurrence.
IT
Sensor
R
FO
River
30
By Ken-ichi ASAI
Second large-scale debris flow

detected by geophone
4
Velocity (cm/s)
LY
0 c
Peak 20 Hz
N
-2
O
93/07/02
-4
16:41 16:42 16:43
W
a Time (min)
IT
5e-005
4e-005
Spectrum ( (cm/s)2 )
R
FO
3e-005
5-50 Hz
2e-005 Ground vibration at 16:41, July
1e-005
2, 2004 ( X axis)
Within 250Hz (a) time domain signals
0
(b) spectrum of FFT
(c) spectrum of GT
0 50 100 150 200 250
b Frequency (Hz)
31
Deployment of serial geophones
→ In order to estimate the velocity
LY
of debris flow front surge, the
geophones are deployed along
N
the riverbank serially.
O
W
Debris
IT
flows R
(Italy : M.Arattano, 2003)
100 m
FO
100 m
Z
Geophone 1
Geophone 2 X Y
GS20-DX, 3-Directions
Measuring Frequency : 8 to 1500 Hz Geophone 3 32
Average velocity of debris flow front surge
Cumulative energy per second ( (cm/s) )

2
0.06
Downstream 16:41:57
16:41:57
0.04 geophone
0.02
Peak amplitude of
accumulation energy
LY
0
16:41 16:42 16:43
N
300 360 420
Time (min)
O
t i 1 E:Accumulation energy
E  (V  V  V ) dt
2 2 2
173 m x y z V:Velocity amplitude
W
ti
dt:0.25 sec
173 m
IT V=
13 sec
= 13.3 m/s
R
FO
Cumulative energyper second ( (cm/s) )

2
6
Midstream 16:41:44
16:41:44
4
geophone
2
Peak amplitude of
accumulation energy
Flow direction 0
16:41
300 16:42
360 16:43
420
Time (min) 33
Soil and Water Conservation Bureau, Taiwan
Monitoring Results – Shenmu Station 2009

CCD image (front view) CCD image (sideview) of Velocity
of Aiyuzi downstream Aiyuzi upper stream
LY
50m
N
O
W
50m/3sec=17m/s
 Accumulative
IT  Geophone signal after wavelet
transform (8/8 16:56~17:00)
R
rainfall: 愛玉子溪下
1500mm
游鋼索斷裂
 Max. hourly midstream
FO
rainfall: 82mm
10sec
downstream
173m / 10sec =17m/s 34

3 Mobile debris flow monitoring station (since 2004)
Rain gauge CCD camera

Spotlight
LY
N
Generator IPC
O
W
IT
R
Inventor GPS
FO
Battery sets Geophone LCD Spectrum analyzer35

Real time monitoring of dammed lake

(4 million m3 of water storage) July 23, 2006
Lung-Chuen stream, Taitung County (eastern Taiwan)
LY
N
O
W
IT
R
FO
36
14 Grid debris flow monitoring station (since 2010)

CCD camera
LY
Rain gauge
N
O
W
IT
R
FO
Solar panel
Data logger
and battery Geophone
Soil moisture probe
37
37
LY
4. Challenges and Future Perspective
N
O
W
IT
R
FO
38
Damage of Calamity
Caused by Typhoon Morakot (Aug 6-10, 2009)
 Max. accumulated rainfall (Aug 6-10, 2009): 3059.5mm.

 Coverage area of total rainfall ≧2000mm: 320,000km2.
LY
 Total new landslides: 39,492 ha.
 Evacuate and withdraw: 24,950 people.
N
 Casualty and missing: 757 people.
O
 Total damage: 90.45 billion NTD(3 billion USD, 0.67% GDP)
W
IT
R
FO
Disaster spot
Landslide Flood 39
Debris Flow Disaster in Taitung County
Landslide area : 8 ha Accumulated rainfall

1,383 mm
Maximum rainfall
LY
intensity 100 mm/hr
Rainfall threshold of
warning 350 mm
N
O
W
Sediments 300,000 m3 15 houses buried
IT
R
FO
40
40
Engineering Construction Design
Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB) N
Artificial Vegetation Debris Flow

Recovery Monitoring station
Check dam
Slit dam Sedimentation
LY
pond
北一溝
N
Retaining wall
O
Broaden the channel
W
南一溝
IT
Sediment dredging
R
FO
Elementary school
9
Relay house
41
Does the Slit Dam Work?
LY
N
O
W
IT
R
FO
42
Recent Typhoon Washi in Philippines, Dec 2011

 Accumulated rainfall : 181 mm within 24 hr
 Casualty : 652, Missing : over 900 people
 It were not frequent to have typhoon disasters in southern Philippines
LY
 National disaster response department issued the warning to the
people in southern Philippines 3 days before the attack, but the local
N
residents did not pay much attention to it.
O
W
IT
R
FO
43
Integration of Software and Hardware

 Under climate change impact, strategy of disaster precaution
should be considered from hardware to software.
LY
 Non-engineering measures should combine with mitigation works.
Disaster over the
N
hardware protection limit
O
Hardware
protection limit
W
Disaster
IT
scale
Hardware
Software
R
FO
High frequency Low frequency低》

《小規模災害機率
small scale高》《大規模災害機率
large scale
＜災害發生的機率小＞ Hardware & software
Safe Damage Safe

(摘自日本地方再生戰略，2008)44
Future Perspective for Natural

Disaster Management
－T.H.I.N.K－
LY
 Technology：Research, development and practice.
N
 Human management：Improve people’s awareness of
O
precaution against disaster.
W
 Investigation：Investigate the potential locations to
cope with disasters. IT
R
 Notice：Accurately control possible occurring time and
FO
give a declaration.
 Knowledge：Information and database as well as expert
decision- making system.
45
LY
Thank You for
N
O
Your Attention
W
IT
R
Soil and Water Conservation Bureau
FO
Always Working with You
46

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Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB)

Application of Information Technology on Disaster Risk

May 15, 2012

Climate Change Impact

The most frequent region of typhoons.

Variation of rainfall pattern

Rainfall hours have

Drought 1963 1980 1993 2002

Historic Typhoon Disasters in Taiwan

1950 60 70 80 90 1999 2000 01 04 05 07 08 09 10

M=7.3 Mainly flood & debris Compound

1996-Herb Debris Flow Disasters in Taiwan

vulnerability Delimitation Location

Investigation of Potential Debris Flow

Investigation of Potential Human

Low Mid High

FLO-2D Hazard GIS Layers

Identification of the Affected Area in the Field

Coverage Area of debris flow Disaster:

Evacuation Routes and Drills for Debris Flow

• 947 Evacuation routes planned

Emergency Response 0800-246-246

Does the public understand the

More simplified model for the public is

Simplified RTI model

300, 350, 400, 450, 500, 550, or 600 mm. RTI10

Warning criteria Table

Township Warning Criteria

Numbers of debris flow torrents in township

Announcement of Debris Flow

Debris Flow Warning

Yellow alarm 338 14 58 163

9,100 people were evacuated by local

17 On-site (fixed) debris flow monitoring station

Geophone Instrumental cabin

Field Observation Data

Aerial photo (2002/10)

Images from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)

Allocation of monitoring instruments

Average slope: 26%

Field observation data

Accumulated Rainfall (mm)

Rainfall data in Shenmu station (Aiyuzih

Accumulated rainfall (mm)

Debris flow warning

Characteristics of debris flows form image data

2. Accumulation of large boulders at debris flow front

•maximum particle size about

Ground vibration generated by debris flow

Debris  During the debris flows, one can

Second large-scale debris flow

Deployment of serial geophones

→ In order to estimate the velocity

Cumulative energy per second ( (cm/s) )

Cumulative energyper second ( (cm/s) )

Monitoring Results – Shenmu Station 2009

173m / 10sec =17m/s 34

3 Mobile debris flow monitoring station (since 2004)

Rain gauge CCD camera

Battery sets Geophone LCD Spectrum analyzer35

Real time monitoring of dammed lake

Lung-Chuen stream, Taitung County (eastern Taiwan)