ENGINEER 3PX3

Integrated Engineering Design Project 3

Final Project - Winter Semester, 2022-2023

High-speed rail is largely considered a major economic growth stimulus and a

sustainable response to population growth, increased travel demand, and transport capacity
constraints [1]. While prevalent in Europe and Asia, North American rail infrastructure is
notably lacking, due in part to the vast distances between major cities. North America is
especially lacking in high-speed rail infrastructure (classified as new railway that can support
maximum speeds over 250 kph, or existing railway upgraded to support maximum speeds over
200 kph) compared to other continents [2].

The currently operational Acela rail in the United States, the under-construction
California High-Speed Rail, and a planned high-speed rail in Mexico mark the first three high-
speed rails on this continent. This leaves Canada as the only G7 country without an active high-
speed railway, despite its economic and social well-being [3].

In recent years, the possibility of implementing high-speed rail in Canada has gained
public support, with a growing recognition of the potential economic, social, and environmental
benefits such infrastructure could provide. In the past twenty years, several route options for
high-speed rail have been explored or suggested, including Edmonton-Calgary, Windsor-Quebec
City, Kitchener-Waterloo-Toronto, Ottawa-Montreal, Montreal-Boston, and Montreal-New York
City. The feasibility studies undertaken means that some pricing information and benefit
generation may be published and available online for your reference [4].

A proposed route by Alstom; TGV – HFR map presented in November 2022 [5].
 Recently, two councillors in Montreal, Craig Sauve and Serge Sasseville, have tabled a
motion to ask Prime Minister Trudeau to support a high-frequency rail project between Toronto
and Montreal [6], [7]. Sasseville has referred to this project as, “the most significant transport
infrastructure in Canada [8].” The benefits of implementing high-speed rail are obvious, yet
tasking to quantify: faster travel times, increased population mobility, reduced highway and city
street congestion, tourism and job stimulus, environmental benefits, and more [9], [10], [11],
[12].

As our governments currently are doing, you are tasked to explore the feasibility of high-
speed rail along the corridor between Ontario and Quebec. Suppose you are a private consulting
firm hired by the Canadian Federal Government (your client) to assess the economic feasibility
of a high-speed rail project along this corridor.

By collaborating in multidisciplinary groups of your peers, you will have the chance in
this Final Project to explore the design and optimization of various rail system components, the
economic viability and sustainability of high-speed rail, and incorporate course concepts such as
time value of money, net value analysis, sensitivity analysis, and project management tools.

The Final Project will have weekly deliverables to ensure schedule adherence. It is a
requirement that these deadlines are consistently met. These deliverables should be draft
submissions showing your effort on the associated project phase. They will each be graded as 0,
1, or 2 out of 2 based on the shown effort. Brief TA feedback will be provided that can be
implemented into the final project deliverables.

There is a listed expectation in the Course Syllabus that one hour of asynchronous design
work will be completed before Design Studios each week. Please use this time to familiarize
yourself with the expectations ahead, so that during Design Studio you can immediately get to
work with your team members.
References

[1] “Benefits of High-Speed Rail for the United States,” American Public Transportation
Association, 17-Mar-2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.apta.com/research-technical-
resources/high-speed-passenger-rail/benefits-of-high-speed-rail-for-the-united-states/.

[2] R. Nunno, “High speed rail development worldwide,” EESI, 19-Jul-2018. [Online].
Available: https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-high-speed-rail-development-
worldwide.

[3] M. Paulsen, “Off the rails,” The Walrus, 15-Jun-2020. [Online]. Available:
https://thewalrus.ca/off-the-rails/.

[4] “All Ontario - Quebec High Speed Rail Studies,” High Speed Rail Canada, 25-Jan-2023.
[Online]. Available: https://www.highspeedrailcanada.com/p/all-canadian-hsr-studies.html.

[5] “Alstom TGV Presentation and Maps for Ontario - Quebec Corridor,” High Speed Rail
Canada, 25-Jan-2023. [Online]. Available:
https://www.highspeedrailcanada.com/2023/01/Alstom-TGV-Ontario-Quebec.html.

[6] “Government of Canada launches process to identify and qualify up to three top candidates to
build high frequency rail between Québec and Toronto,” Transport Canada, 24-Feb-2023.
[Online]. Available: https://www.canada.ca/en/transport-
canada/news/2023/02/government-of-canada-launches-process-to-identify-and-qualify-up-
to-three-top-candidates-to-build-high-frequency-rail-between-quebec-and-toronto.html.

[7] K. DeClerq, “High-speed train between Toronto and Montreal one step closer to becoming
reality,” Toronto, 17-Feb-2023. [Online]. Available: https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/could-a-
high-speed-train-between-toronto-and-montreal-become-a-reality-1.6278087.

[8] “Toronto could get a high-speed train to Montreal & Here's What To Know,” Curiocity, 17-
Feb-2023. [Online]. Available: https://curiocity.com/toronto-montreal-high-speed-rail/.

[9] B. Lorenz, “High-speed rail benefits small towns and large cities,” The Urbanist, 31-Jul-
2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.theurbanist.org/2020/07/30/high-speed-rail-
benefits-small-towns-and-large-cities/.

[10] A. Kunz, “10 reasons america needs high-speed rail,” Global Railway Review, 27-Jan-2020.
[Online]. Available: https://www.globalrailwayreview.com/article/69858/10-reasons-
america-needs-high-speed-rail/.

[11] “High speed rail: Benefits, costs, and challenges,” EESI, 04-May-2010. [Online]. Available:
https://www.eesi.org/briefings/view/high-speed-rail-benefits-costs-and-challenges.
[12] A. Henderson, “Public Transit and the Benefits of High-Speed Rail,” Smart Cities Dive.
[Online]. Available:
https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/ex/sustainablecitiescollective/benefits-high-speed-
rail/151136/. [Accessed: 02-Mar-2023].
Phase 1: Preliminary Analysis
Draft Due: Night of Week 7 Design Studio

In this phase, you will take a first look at the demand for a high-speed rail project, and the
potential benefits of a system between Ontario and Quebec. You will conduct market research by
determining the stakeholders and using second-hand sources to determine the potential demand
for the rail system. This will require first determining the start and stop locations of the rail
project, so that demand can be accurately assessed.

A. Create a Gantt chart in Microsoft Project that summarizes and illustrates the expectations
for your newly-named private firm. (You may choose a creative name for your firm, or
stick with your given project team number.) This Gantt chart will be used to determine a
schedule for the Final Project immediately, and you should make every attempt to stick to
the proposed timeline you set.
B. Write a brief “report” (between 200 – 300 words in length) on the market research
assessing project demand. This should include information on potential ridership,
demand, and market potential for the high-speed rail system between your start and stop
locations.
C. Determine the stakeholders of this proposed project (determine who is impacted –
positively or negatively – by the project.
D. Define the problem. Demonstrate understanding of the client and the context of the
scenario at hand. Note informative background information about the scenario.
Determine how you can evaluate if your project is successful (i.e. Lay out a basic net
value function (without any conversion factors) and constraints. “We will be successful if
we maximize/minimize X1, X2 while staying within the constraints of Y1, Y2, etc.”)
E. State any initial assumptions, constraints, objectives, and goals of the project that you can
determine.
F. Create a risk matrix that identifies and assesses potential risks that could impact the
success of the overall project.
G. Propose a potential solution to the scenario that has numerous design aspects that you can
later work to optimize. Determine which design aspects will be considered by each group
member in later phases. You are welcome to change your mind later, but submit an initial
proposal here.

Phase 2: Route Planning

Draft Due: Night of Week 8 Design Studio

Here, you will work to design a route for the high-speed rail system between Ontario and
Quebec. Consider factors such as topology, geology, population density, and existing
infrastructure to determine a logical route. This phase should also incorporate the proposal of
station locations.
 H. Propose a route between Ontario and Quebec. Create a graphic to illustrate this proposed
route. Label the locations of all proposed stations.
I. Justify the decisions behind your stop locations and route design. If necessary, discuss
any required infrastructure improvements needed to make your route feasible.

Phase 3: Initial Detailed Net Value

Draft Due: Night of Week 8 Design Studio

After determining the framework of the high-speed rail line, conduct an economic analysis of the
proposal thus far. At this stage, the net value function may contain several factors not yet
converted into monetary values. It is most important to produce an exhaustive list of terms for
the net value function, many of which can be determined in terms of dollar values later.

J. Create an exhaustive net value function, and replace terms with monetary conversions
where possible at this stage.
K. Justify the presence of the terms in your net value function. Justify the omission of terms
that were considered but ultimately not implemented.

Phase 4: Technical Design

Draft Due: Night of Week 9 Design Studio

In this phase, you will individually conduct technical analysis on one aspect of the high-speed
rail system design. You will determine how the technical work done on this aspect affects the
benefits and/or costs of your net value equation.

L. Refer back to your proposed design aspect submitted with Phase 1. If you have changed
your mind, briefly justify this swap. Determine how this individual system aspect affects
the overall greater net value function by completing a technical analysis of your chosen
system aspect. This may conclude with the addition of new terms to your net value
function, or at least a better evaluation of the monetary values of the benefits and costs
terms in your net value function.

There is no requirement to select any of the below options, nor is it an exhaustive list, but you
should be selecting a design aspect with a scope you can feasibly design. You may choose to
consider these suggestions as “categories” and look at something more specific within that
category. It is entirely up to you, but you must assess a different system component than
everyone else in your team.

Possible Suggestions:
1. Railbed design (materials, thickness)
2. Braking control systems
3. Power supply and distribution systems (transformers, switchgear, protection devices)
4. Signaling and communication systems
 5. Schedule design, frequency design
6. Train speed recommendations at specific locations
7. Maximum safe speed on curves
8. Drainage systems for the railway tracks
9. Train body aerodynamic assessment
10. Software or hardware for control and management of railway system
11. Embedded systems for on-board control systems and computers
12. Networking and communication systems and interfaces for the railway system
13. Material selection for train body, suspension, or powertrain components
14. Performance and safety analysis of chassis, suspension, drivetrain components
15. Information systems design (real-time data transmission to users, user interface design)
16. Train propulsion system design

Phase 5: Environmental Analysis

Draft Due: Night of Week 9 Design Studio

This phase involves an investigation of the environmental impacts, benefits, and costs of the
project.

M. Identify environmental regulatory requirements associated with constructing and

operating passenger rail in Ontario and Quebec.
N. Identify potential impacts on wildlife and local ecosystems from construction,
maintenance, and usage of high-speed rail along the proposed route.
O. Identify potential environmental benefits from the adoption of high-speed rail, such as
lowered highway congestion or air pollution, if applicable.
P. Provide reasonable monetary values for identified items in M, N, and O. Update your net
value function with any new terms and values obtained from this project phase and
provide an updated net value.

Phase 6: Thorough Economic Analysis

Draft Due: Night of The Business Day After Week 10 Design Studio

After developing your technical design aspects and determining your net value function, in-depth
cost estimates are needed to detail the net value function.

Q. Develop a detailed work breakdown structure and cost estimate for the proposed high-
speed rail project. This will involve identifying all the major tasks required to complete
the project and determining the resources (such as labour, materials, equipment, etc.) to
complete each task. You will need to consider time value of money, expected inflation
rates, and other economic factors that may impact the cost of the project over time.
Breakdown your cost estimate into categories including capital expenditures, operational
expenses, and maintenance costs. Provide all cash inflows and outflows as both nominal
 values and as present values. Where possible, provide suggestions on how to improve the
financial performance of the project.
R. If your client sets a real MARR of 15%, does your proposal meet this constraint?
Evaluate the rate of return over a timeline from today until 20 years after the high-speed
rail is expected to become operational. (So, this may be [today] -> [2 years of route
planning/technical design/acquiring permits/land/equipment, etc.] -> [5 years of
construction] -> [20 years of operation] = 27 years from today, for example)
S. Determine the key project variables, such as ridership projections, construction costs,
inflation rates, etc., and determine the impact of these variables on the financial viability
of the project. Provide reasonable assumptions as to how significantly the values of these
variables may change. Where possible, provide suggestions on how to mitigate risks
associated with changes in these key project variables. Briefly discuss how changes in
key assumptions or inputs will affect the project’s profitability.
T. Update your net value function with any new terms and values obtained from this project
phase and provide an updated net value.

Phase 7: Optimization
Draft Due: Night of The Business Day After Week 10 Design Studio

Make every attempt to complete the problem formulation (constraint determinations) on your most up-to-
date NVF before the Week 10 tutorial (as part of your asynchronous work time). This will allow us to
provide guidance on creating a good linear program for your NVF model during tutorial.
In this phase, you'll complete a linear optimization on the entire net value function. This follows the steps
outlined in lectures:
U. Carefully identify which decision variables you have in your NVF, and summarize constraints in
appropriate form to solve with linear programming. Set independent variables you don’t control
to reasonable values so the model is deterministic and NV is dependent only on decision
variables. If your NVF is nonlinear in the decision variables, constrain enough of these variables
at reasonable values as needed to make the NVF and your constraints linear (and explain your
choice);
V. Complete a linear optimization (using Excel, as shown in class for Topic 9) to identify the best set
of decision variable values possible to maximize your NVF (with the assumptions made in step
U). Discuss your results and information presented by Excel's "Sensitivity" output report,
identifying sensitivity of your NV to your decision variables and constraints.
Afterwards, you should explore the following further extensions to improve and demonstrate your
mastery of the course content (not for week 10, but for your final version of the report)
W. Insert the optimal decision variable values from your linear optimization model into the full,
nonlinear NVF (i.e., un-fixing the decision variables you fixed in step U). Complete a full
deterministic sensitivity analysis (e.g. spider plot, tornado chart etc.) on the nonlinear NVF in an
attempt to approach an even more optimal value.
X. Building off the risk matrix started in earlier phases (or an updated version of it), create a plan to
deal with the three most serious risks identified, and estimate the cost of implementing these risk
management plans.
 Y. Around the optimum, build in (determine) uncertainty for parameters you have no control over,
and determine the 95% confidence interval on net value for the set of inputs that created the
optimum (i.e., replace the independent variables you don’t control that you set to constants in step
U with functions that take random samples from appropriate statistical distributions instead so
you have a stochastic model for NVF, and use a Monte Carlo simulation to find the confidence
interval on resulting NVF)
Z. For this stochastic model of the full nonlinear NVF (i.e., with uncertainties from the previous
step), complete a new sensitivity analysis for some key decision variable values by adjusting
them (by small amounts) and performing new Monte Carlo simulations (present your results with
another spider plot, tornado plot, or other visualization tool.) Discuss whether the results of this
step suggest modifications to decision variable values for an even better expected outcome (or an
improved 95% confidence interval in some way; e.g., better expected value and/or lower risk)
(but you don't need to actually pursue further changes after this step).

Main Deliverable: Final Report and Video

Deadline: April 6th, 11:59 pm.

Complete an all-encompassing report that discusses all phases of the Final Project, and the
technical work done by your team, similar to the structure used in the Case Study reports. Record
a video (between 5 – 10 minutes) that communicates the major details of the report to the client.

AA. Create a final report that from the perspective of an analytic report detailing the
work and analysis your team has done, and justification for why the solution you have
developed is the best solution (and generates the greatest net value). The full scope of
your technical analysis should be present and explained within the report – and deviations
from previously submitted drafts should be explained. Include your Excel files detailing
your simulation and optimization model work.

BB. Record and upload a five-to-ten-minute presentation detailing the problem,

proposed solution, and the technical, economic, and analytical work that was done to
prove that from a net value perspective, you are presenting the “best” solution. The
presentation should be understandable as a standalone piece of work, covering the same
main points as your final report, but not necessarily explained to the same level of detail.