Mathematics 10

Quarter 3
Self-Learning Module18
Conditional Probability
Mathematics – Grade 10
Quarter 3 – Self-Learning Module 18: Conditional Probability
First Edition, 2020

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Mathematics 10

Quarter 3
Self-Learning Module18
Conditional Probability
Introductory Message

For the Facilitator:

Welcome to the Mathematics Grade10 Self-Learning Module on Conditional

Probability!

This Self-Learning Module was collaboratively designed, developed and

reviewed by educators both from public and private institutions to assist you, the
teacher or facilitator in helping the learners meet the standards set by the K to 12
Curriculum while overcoming their personal, social, and economic constraints in
schooling.

This learning resource hopes to engage the learners into guided and
independent learning activities at their own pace and time. Furthermore, this also
aims to help learners acquire the needed 21st century skills while taking into
consideration their needs and circumstances.

In addition to the material in the main text, you will also see this box in the
body of the self-learning module:

Notes to the Teacher

This contains helpful tips or strategies
that will help you in guiding the learners.

As a facilitator you are expected to orient the learners on how to use this
self-learning module. You also need to keep track of the learners' progress while
allowing them to manage their own learning. Furthermore, you are expected to
encourage and assist the learners as they do the tasks included in the self-learning
module.
 For the Learner:

Welcome to the Mathematics Grade 10 Self-Learning Module on Conditional

Probability!

This self-learning module was designed to provide you with fun and
meaningful opportunities for guided and independent learning at your own pace
and time. You will be enabled to process the contents of the learning resource while
being an active learner.

This self-learning module has the following parts and corresponding icons:

Expectations - This points to the set of knowledge and skills

that you will learn after completing the module.

Pretest - This measures your prior knowledge about the lesson

at hand.

Recap - This part of the module provides a review of concepts

and skills that you already know about a previous lesson.

Lesson - This section discusses the topic in the module.

Activities - This is a set of activities that you need to perform.

Wrap-Up - This section summarizes the concepts and

application of the lesson.

Valuing - This part integrates a desirable moral value in the

lesson.

Posttest – This measures how much you have learned from the
entire module.
 EXPECTATION

1. Solve problems involving conditional probability.

PRETEST

Directions: Solve each of the following problems. Write the answer on the space
provided.

__________1. A sample of 150 plastic pipes were selected and subjected to shock
resistance and scratch resistance tests. The results are summarized in
the table below. A pipe is selected at random. What is the probability
that it has high shock resistance given that it has high scratch
resistance?

Shock Resistance
Scratch Resistance
High Low
High 125 12
Low 7 6
125 137 125 132
A. B. C. D.
132 150 137 150

__________2. There are four batteries, and one of them is defective. Two are to be
selected at random for use on a particular day. Find the probability
that the second battery selected is not defective, given that the first
was not defective.
2 1 1 1
A. B. C. D.
3 4 3 2
__________3. If a coin is tossed 3 times, what is the probability that all three tosses
come up heads given that at least two of the tosses come up heads.
1 1 1 3
A. B. C. . D.
6 4 3 8
__________4. Suppose you roll a red die and a green die. The probability that the
4
sum of the numbers on the dice is equal to 9 is since there are 4 of
36
the 36 outcomes where the sum is 9. What if you see that the red die
shows the number 5, but you still have not seen the green die? What
are the chances that the sum is 9?
1 1 1 2
A. B. C. . D.
6 4 3 3
__________5. Two men and three women are in a committee. Two of the five are to
be chosen to serve as officers. If the officers are chosen randomly,
what is the probability that both officers will be women given that at
least one is a woman?

3 1 3 3
A. B. C. D.
4 3 8 10
 RECAP
Direction: Identify if the given problem is Independent or Dependent, and then
answer the given problem.
The probability that a student who attended the extensive one-week Math
review passes the periodic exam is 0.7. Three such students are checked at
random. Find the probability that
1. None of the three students passed the periodic exam.
2. At least one of them passed the exam.

LESSON

You roll one 6-sided die, what is the probability of getting a 3 given that you
know that the number is odd?

Let A be the event of getting 3, so A = {3}

B be the event that the number is odd, so B = {1, 3, 5}.

If we are going to find P(A), it is as simple as 1/6 since there is only one element in
A and the sample space is 6. But since we already know that the number is odd,
how are we going to solve the problem?

This is an example of Conditional Probability. But what is Conditional

Probability?

Conditional Probability of an event A is the probability that the event will

happen given the knowledge that an event B has already happened. If
events A and B are not independent, then the probability of the intersection of A
and B (the probability that both events occur) is defined by
P(A and B) = P(B)P(A|B). From this definition, the conditional probability P(A|B) is
easily obtained by dividing by P(B): so the formula for Conditional Probability is:

𝑷(𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩)
P(A|B).=
𝑷(𝑩)

1
In our activity P(A and B) = , since there is one common element
6
3
in A and B with sample space of 6, while P(B) = since there are 3 elements in B
6
with sample space of 6. Solving for P(getting 3 given that the number is odd) in
symbols;
1
1
P(A|B).= 6
3 =
3
6

Let us have more examples.

Examples:

1. The probability that Arnel studies and passes his math test is 0.45. If the
probability that he studies is 0.80, what is the probability that he passes the
math test, given that he has studied?
Solution:
Let B be the event that he studies, so P(B) = 0.80. P(A and B) = 0.45.
𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) 0.45
Using the formula. P(A\B) = = = 0.5625
𝑃(𝐵) 0.80

2. One hundred students go to a leadership camp. After grouping, the number

of boys and girls in each group are as follows:

Group Red Blue Green Purple

Boy 14 18 15 13

Girl 11 7 10 12
If a student is chosen at random from these 100 students to give a
self-introduction, find the probability that a student from the blue group is
chosen, given that the student is a boy.
18
Solution: Looking at the table, the P(blue group and boy) = , while
100
18
60 18 3
P(boy) = . Thus P(blue group given boy ) = 100
60 = = .
100 60 10
100

3. A fair die is thrown twice. Given that the first throw is an odd number, what
is the probability that the sum of the numbers obtained is 7?

Solution: Let A be the event that the sum of the numbers obtained is
7 so A = {(1,6), (6,1), (2,5), (5,2), (3,4), (4,3)}, B be the event that the first
throw is an odd number so B = {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6), (3, 1),…,
18
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5),(5,6)} and P(B) = . A and B = {(1,6), (5,2), (3,4)},
36
3
so P(A and B) = .
36

3
𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) 3 1
Substituting in the formula P(A\B) = = 36
18 = = .
𝑃(𝐵) 18 6
36
 ACTIVITIES
ACTIVITY 1: LET’S PRACTICE!
Directions: Answer each of the following problems. Write the answer on the space
provided as a reduced fraction.

__________1. A family has three children. Assuming that boys and girls are equally
likely, determine the probability that the family has two girls given the
first child is a girl.

__________2. A pair of dice is rolled and the sum of the dice is recorded, determine
the probability that the sum is greater than 5 given the first dice is a 4.

__________3. One card is selected from a deck of cards find the probability that the
card is heart given it is not black.

__________4. A survey of students to determine if they had a pierced ear was given.
The results are summarized in the table below.

Not
Pierced Total
Pierced
Male 36 144 180
Female 288 32 320
Total 324 176 500

If one person is selected at random find the probability that the person is a
female given they are pierced.

__________5. Andrea is a very good student. The probability that she studies and
17
passes her mathematics test is . If the probability that Andrea
20
15
studies is , find the probability that Andrea passes her
16
mathematics test, given that she has studied.

ACTIVITY 2: KEEP PRACTICING!

Directions: Answer each of the following problems. Write the answer on the space
provided as a reduced fraction.

__________1. A family has three children. Assuming that boys and girls are equally
likely, determine the probability that the family has two girls given the
first child is a boy.

__________2. A pair of dice is rolled and the sum of the dice is recorded, determine
the probability that the sum is greater than 9 given the second dice is
a 6.
__________3. One card is selected from a deck of cards find the probability that the
card is a spade given it is red.

__________4. A survey of students to determine if they had a pierced ear was given.
The results are summarized in the table below.

Not
Pierced Total
Pierced
Male 36 144 180
Female 288 32 320
Total 324 176 500

If one person is selected at random find the probability that the person is a
male given they are not pierced.
3
__________5. The probability that Janice smokes is . The probability that she
10
4
Smokes and develops lung cancer is . Find the probability that
15
Janice develops lung cancer, given that she smokes.

ACTIVITY 3: TEST YOURSELF!

Directions: Answer each of the following problems. Write the answer on the space
provided as a reduced fraction.

__________1. A family has three children. Assuming that boys and girls are equally
likely, determine the probability that the family has less than 2 girls
given the first child is a girl.

__________2. A pair of dice is rolled and the sum of the dice is recorded, determine
the probability the sum is even given the second dice is a 4.
__________3. One card is selected from a deck of cards find the probability that the
card is a four given that it is black.

__________4. A survey of students to determine if they had a pierced ear was given.
The results are summarized in the table below.

Not
Pierced Total
Pierced
Male 36 144 180
Female 288 32 320
Total 324 176 500

If one person is selected at random find the probability that the person is a
not pierced given they are female.

__________5. The probability that Sue will go to Mexico in the winter and to France
in the summer is 0.40 . The probability that she will go to Mexico in
the winter is 0.60 . Find the probability that she will go to France this
summer, given that she just returned from her winter vacation in
Mexico.
 WRAP–UP

The probability that an event will happen given that another event has
already happened is called Conditional Probability.

If A and B are any events, then

𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
P(A\B) = or P(A\B) =
𝑃(𝐵) 𝑃(𝐵)

VALUING
REFLECTION: (Journal Writing)

We learned that some probabilities were given a condition, which is either

the first event or the second event already happened. Give two events in your life
that you wish you already know what happened on the first for you to decide
correctly and another two events which is the reverse of the first. Explain and
discuss it with your group.

POSTTEST

Directions: Answer each of the following problems. Write the answer on the space
provided.

__________1. A study has been done to determine whether or not a certain drug
leads to an improvement in symptoms for patients with a particular
medical condition. The results are shown in the following table.

No
Improvement Total
Improvement
Drug 270 530 800
No Drug 120 280 400
Total 390 810 1200

Based on the table above, what is the probability that a patient shows
improvement if it is known that the patient was given the drug?
13 27 2 9
A. B. C. D.
40 80 3 13
__________2. What is the probability of drawing two aces from a standard deck of
cards, given that the first card is an ace? The cards are not returned to
the deck.
1 1 3 1
A. B. C. D.
34 26 52 17

__________3. A box of crayons has these colors: red, orange, yellow, green, blue,
violet, brown, black, pink, white, gold, and turquoise. You take a
crayon at random from the box with your eyes closed. What is the
probability that you drew the green crayon, given that the color has
five letters in its name?
1 1 1 1
A. B. C. D.
6 5 4 3

__________4. You roll two dice. The first die shows a ONE and the other die rolls
under the table and you cannot see it. Now, what is the probability
that both die show ONE?
1 1 1 1
A. B. C. D.
6 7 8 12

__________5. At a basketball game, 80% of the fans cheered for team A. In the same
crowd, 20% of the fans were waving banners and cheering for team A.
What is the probability that a fan waved a banner given that the fan
cheered for team A?
4 1 3
A. B. C. D. 1
25 4 5

KEY TO CORRECTION

5. B 4. A 3. C 1. B 2. D
POSTTEST

3 10 13 2 4
5. 4. 1. 2. 3.
2 1 1 1 1
ACTIVITY 3: TEST YOURSELF!

9 11 2 4
5. 4. 1. 2. 3. 0
8 9 1 1
ACTIVITY 2: KEEP PRACTICING!

75 9 2 6 2
5. 1. 2. 3. 4.
68 8 1 5 1
ACTIVITY 1: LET’S PRACTICE!
1. 0.027 2. 0.973
RECAP
5. B 4. A 1. C 2. A 3. B
PRETEST
 References

Callanta, Melvin, Canonigo, Allan, Chua, Arnaldo , Cruz, Jerry, Esparrago,

Mirla, Garcia, Elino, Magnaye, Aries, Orines, Fernando, Perez, Rowena, and
Concepcion Ternida. Mathematics Grade 10 Learner’s. Pasig: Department of
Education, 2015.

Chua, Simon, Sy Tan, Josephine, Ubarro, Arvie, Cayetano, Ma. Remedios, and
Renato Guerrero. Soaring 21st Century Mathematics Grade 10. Quezon
City:Phoenix Publishing House, 2015.

Oronce, Orlando, and Marilyn Mendoza. E-Math 10 Manila: Rex Bookstore Inc.,
2017.

web.gccaz.edu/~johnw63181/MAT142?chapter_4/problem/section%204.7pdf.
(accessed July 15, 2020).
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df. (accessed July 15, 2020).

easyteacherworksheets.com/pages/pdf/math/stats/conditiionalprobability/4.html
(accessed July 15, 2020).
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