Process of Identifying a Trend

How do we identify trends? According to Brannon (2000), tracing a trend is similar to the work of a
meteorologist who predicts and tracks weather patterns. A weather disturbance can bring heavy
monsoon rains or even lead to a typhoon. Lawrence Samuel, the co-founder of Iconoculture, Inc., a
marketing consulting firm, identified the different stages that explain how an idea or look can become a
trend. According to Samuel (as cited by Brannon 2000, 7), a look becomes a trend if it undergoes the
following stages:

1. FRINGE stage

In this stage, an innovative idea, whether in the form of a new product, service, or in other form,
develops into the market or become known to the trendiest consumers. In this stage, entrepreneurial
and business firms participate to develop and innovate ideas.

2. TRENDY

In this stage, consumer and public awareness of the trend grows as the early adopters
participate together with the innovators to increase the perceptibility of the trend. During this stage, the
most fashion-forward brands and retailers, assess the viability of the concept. They usually conduct test-
market research.

3. MAINSTREAM

During this stage, the “conservative consumers” join the trend. The idea’s popularity and
acceptance continues to increase, and the corporations and company brands exploit the growing
demand for that idea. In this stage, the trend becomes a mainstream product or service. When it
happens, several things can occur:

The trend can fade away once majority of the consumers tested the product or idea. They could either
accept or reject the idea. If the ideas acceptance or rejection occurred over a short period of time and its
appeal was limited to a small number of consumers, the trend is reduced into a fad.

When the consumers buy or support the trend by doing multiple purchases, the trend reaches a plateau
level of acceptance and stays at the same level. If the trend persists or stays for a long period of time, the
trend is called a classic. A classic refers to a look or trend that is always present in some form that is
appropriate across diverse occasions and accepted by diverging consumer groups.

Another possibility is the fragmentation of a trend. A trend fragmentation or microtrend happen when
there is a recent development in the trend or reinvention which leads to the fringe stage of a trend.
ELEMENTS AND CHARACTERISTICS OF A TREND
A trend has different elements that makes it different from a fad. By analyzing the different elements of a
trend, you can determine its difference from a fad. Below are some of the elements of a trend:

1. Duration of time

Trends have longer staying power and enjoy a longer period of popularity. The lifespan of
products or ideas that become trends do not disappear quickly as opposed to a fad.

2. Acceptability

Trends are popularly accepted by many industries and people. Trends tend to stay longer
because they receive popular support from consumers and companies who believe on these trends as
accepted ideas or patterns that can endure time.

3. Cultural basis

A trend is rooted on the people’s cultural traditions, beliefs, and values. A trend persists and
continues because people have seen it as a part of their society’s culture. Because a trend has a form of
connection with a society’s culture. A concrete example of this are the buffet restaurants; they have
bloomed in and outside the malls here in the Philippines. The buffet restaurant trend has lasted for a
long time in our country because Filipinos love to eat and dine with friends, family, and relatives during
special occasions. Buffet restaurants are appealing because they provide diverse cuisines and a variety of
selections for the costumers.

4. Transitory increase or decrease

A trend shows a transitory increase or decrease of a particular idea, event, or phenomenon.

There are trends that have lasted for a longer period of time, like for example population growth, or the
number of HIV-AIDS victims in the Philippines. But all trends have the potential to eventually slow down
and decline.

DIFFERENCES OF TRENDS AND FADS

1. Duration of time

2. Number of Industries affected

3. Industry acceptance

4. Consumer adoption and perception of overall quality

5. Reasons to rise

6. Incubation period and life span

7. Scope

8. Cultural Roots