Discrete Probability: Discrete Structures For Computing On September 30, 2021

Discrete Probability
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,

Tran Tuan Anh, Nguyen
Chapter 7
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Discrete Structures for Computing on September 30, 2021
Contents
Introduction
Probability
Randomness
Terminology
Probability Rules
Conditional Probability
Dependent and Independent
events
Concept of Conditional
Probability
Random Variables
Huynh Tuong Nguyen, Tran Tuan Anh, Nguyen An Khuong, Le Probability Models
Hong Trang Geometric Model
Binomial Model
Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering

PROBLEMS
University of Technology - VNUHCM

SUMMARY III:
trtanh@hcmut.edu.vn - htnguyen@hcmut.edu.vn Emerging Applications
7.1
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,

An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
We would like to thank Dr. Nguyen Van Minh Man from Mahidol Contents
University, Thailand for his contribution to this chapter. Introduction
Probability
Randomness
Terminology
Probability Rules
events
Probability
Random Variables
Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
Emerging Applications
7.2
Contents
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
Introduction
An Khuong, Le Hong
1 Trang
2 Probability
Randomness
Terminology
3 Probability Rules
Contents
Introduction
4 Conditional Probability
Probability
Dependent and Independent events Randomness
Concept of Conditional Probability Terminology
Probability Rules
5 Random Variables Conditional Probability
events
6 Probability Models Concept of Conditional
Probability
Geometric Model
Random Variables
Binomial Model Probability Models
Geometric Model
7 PROBLEMS Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
8 SUMMARY III: Emerging Applications SUMMARY III:
7.3
Course outcomes
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Course learning outcomes

L.O.1 Understanding of logic and discrete structures
L.O.1.1 Describe definition of propositional and predicate logic
L.O.1.2 Define basic discrete structures: set, mapping, graphs
L.O.2 Represent and model practical problems with discrete structures Contents
L.O.2.1 Logically describe some problems arising in Computing Introduction
L.O.2.2 Use proving methods: direct, contrapositive, induction Probability
L.O.2.3 Explain problem modeling using discrete structures Randomness
Terminology
L.O.3 Understanding of basic probability and random variables

Probability Rules
L.O.3.1 Define basic probability theory Conditional Probability
L.O.3.2 Explain discrete random variables

events
Probability
L.O.4 Compute quantities of discrete structures and probabilities Random Variables
L.O.4.1 Operate (compute/ optimize) on discrete structures Probability Models

L.O.4.2 Compute probabilities of various events, conditional Geometric Model
ones, Bayes theorem Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.4
Motivations
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
• Gambling Trang
Contents
Introduction
Probability
• Real life problems Randomness
Terminology
Probability Rules
events
Probability
Random Variables
Probability Models
Geometric Model
• Computer Science: cryptology deals with encrypting codes

Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
or the design of error correcting codes

SUMMARY III:
7.5
Learning Objectives of Basic Probability
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
After careful study of basic probability, you should be able to
1 Compute and interpret probability of an event

Contents
(Probability = a chance that an event occurs)
Introduction
2 Find probability of mixed events, including conditional Probability
probability Randomness
Terminology
3 Explain the concepts of random variable, and determine its Probability Rules
components Conditional Probability
4 Understand expectation and variance of a random variable events
Probability
Random Variables
Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.6
Learning Objectives of Basic Probability
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
Probability in practice Tran Tuan Anh, Nguyen

An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Probabilistic Methods help us to solve realistic problems as follows.
1) In Computing
• Estimate the average computing time of an algorithm
• Compute the risk of security breach to a computer system

by (bad) hackers in cyber-space... Contents
Introduction
2) In Finance Science and Insurance Industry

Probability
• Suppose an insurance company B has thousands of

Randomness
Terminology
customers, and each customer is charged $500 a year. Probability Rules
• Since the customer's businesses are risky, from the past Conditional Probability
experience the company B estimates that about 15% of their events
customers would get fatal trouble (e.g. fire, accident ...) and, Probability
as a result they will submit a claim in any given year. Random Variables
Probability Models
• We assume that the claim will always be $3000 for each Geometric Model
customer.
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
Our problem: Compute how much average profit can the SUMMARY III:
company expect to make per customer in a certain year? Emerging Applications
7.7
Randomness
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
Which of these are random phenomena? An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
• The number you receive when rolling a fair dice
• The sequence for lottery special prize (by law!)
• Your blood type (No!)

• You met the red light on the way to school
• The traffic light is not random. It has timer. Contents
• The pattern of your riding is random. Introduction
Probability
So what is special about randomness? Randomness
Terminology
In the long run, they are predictable and have relative frequency
Probability Rules
(fraction of times that the event occurs over and over and over). Dependent and Independent
events
Does randomness exist in the above problem? What is it? Concept of Conditional
Probability
Could we Random Variables
1 Model the amount of money X that the insurance company Probability Models
Geometric Model
believes to obtain from each customer Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
2 Find the expectation (Expected Value) of that amount,
SUMMARY III:
denoted by E[X]. Emerging Applications
7.8
Terminology
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Contents
Introduction
Probability
Randomness
Terminology
Probability Rules
• Experiment (th½ nghi»m): Conditional Probability

a procedure that yields one of a Dependent and Independent
given set of possible outcomes.

events
• Tossing a coin to see the face

Probability
Random Variables
• Sample space (khæng gian mü ): set of possible outcomes

Probability Models
• {Head, Tail} Geometric Model
Binomial Model
• Event (sü ki»n): a subset of sample space. PROBLEMS
• You see Head after an experiment. {Head} is an event. SUMMARY III:
7.9
Example
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Example (1)
Experiment: Rolling a die. What is the sample space?
Answer: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Contents
Introduction
Example (2)
Probability
Experiment: Rolling two dice. What is the sample space? Randomness
Terminology
Answer: It depends on what we're going to ask! Probability Rules
• The total number?

{2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}

events
Probability
• The number of each die?

Random Variables
{(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), . . ., (6,6)} Probability Models
Geometric Model
Which is better? Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
The latter one, because they are equally likely outcomes
SUMMARY III:
7.10
The Law of Large Numbers
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Definition
The Law of Large Numbers (Luªt sè lîn) states that the long-run
relative frequency of repeated independent events gets closer and
Contents
closer to the true relative frequency as the number of trials Introduction
increases. Probability
Randomness
Terminology
Example
Probability Rules
Do you believe that the true relative frequency of Head when you Conditional Probability
toss a coin is 50%? events
Probability
Let's try!
Random Variables
Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.11
Be Careful!
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Don't misunderstand the Law of Large Numbers (LLN). It can

lead to money lost and poor business decisions.
Example
Contents
I had 8 children, all of them are girls. Thanks to LLN (!?), there Introduction
are high possibility that the next one will be a boy. Probability
(Overpopulation!!!) Randomness
Terminology
Probability Rules
Example Dependent and Independent
events
I'm playing Oysters - Crap - Lobster - Fish game, the fish has not Concept of Conditional
Probability
appeared in recent 5 games, it will be more likely to be fish next Random Variables
game. Thus, I bet all my money in fish. (Sorry, you lose!) Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.12
Probability
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
Probability of an event E, or a phenomenon ... informally is An Khuong, Le Hong

Trang
a number P[E] or p(E) measuring how much chance

that the event E would happen.
Definition
The probability (x¡c su§t ) of an event E of a finite nonempty

sample space S of equally likely outcomes is: Contents
Introduction
|E| Probability
P[E] = . Randomness
|S| Terminology
Probability Rules
• Note that E ⊆ S so 0 ≤ |E| ≤ |S| Dependent and Independent
events
• 0 ≤ P[E] ≤ 1 Concept of Conditional
Probability
• 0 indicates impossibility Random Variables
• 1 indicates certainty Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
People often say: It has a 20% probability of female students in
SUMMARY III:
class DS1007 if there are 20 women over a total of 100 students. Emerging Applications
7.13
Examples (We use both notation P[E] and p(E))
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Example (1) Trang
What is the probability of getting a Head when tossing a coin?
Answer:
• There are |S| = 2 possible outcomes
• Getting a Head is|E| = 1 outcome, so Contents
p(E) = 1/2 = 0.5 = 50% Introduction
Probability
Randomness
Example (2) Terminology
Probability Rules
What is the probability of getting a 7 by rolling two dice? Conditional Probability
Answer: events
• Product rule: There are a total of 36 equally likely possible

Probability
Random Variables
outcomes
Probability Models
• There are six successful outcomes: Geometric Model
Binomial Model
(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1) PROBLEMS
• Thus, |E| = 6, |S| = 36, p(E) = 6/36 = 1/6 SUMMARY III:
7.14
Examples
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Example (3)
We toss a coin 6 times. What is probability of H in 6th toss, if all

the previous 5 are T?
Answer:
Contents
Don't be silly! Still 1/2.

Introduction
Probability
Example (4) Randomness
Terminology
Which is more likely: Probability Rules
• Rolling an 8 when 2 dice are rolled?

events
• Rolling an 8 when 3 dice are rolled? Concept of Conditional
Probability
Random Variables
Answer:
Probability Models
Two dice: 5/36 ≈ 0.139 Geometric Model
dice: 21/216 ≈ 0.097

Binomial Model
Three
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.15
Summary I: Conceptual terms of probability
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
Experiment is a specific trial/activity (of scientists, human being) An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
whose outcomes possess randomness.
Sample space- set of all possible outcomes, denoted by S.
Event- is subset E S : E ⊂ S . Usually we include

of sample space
all events into a set Q := {events E : E ⊂ S}, called the event Contents
S
set or σ -algebra. So Q ⊂ 2 , the power set of S . Introduction
Probability
Randomness
Probability function: is a map P : Q → [0, 1], Terminology
Probability Rules
E ∈ Q =⇒ p(E) = P[E] = Prob(E) = Conditional Probability
events
probability or chance that the event E occurs. Concept of Conditional
Probability
Random Variables
Remarks:
Probability Models
1 S can be a discrete set or continuous set. [DIY: could you Geometric Model
Binomial Model
invent few examples?]
Prob(E) equivalently
PROBLEMS
2 We use 3 notations p(E), P[E] and SUMMARY III:
from now on.
7.16
Event combinations
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
• The Union of two events A, B , denoted as A ∪ B, Trang
consists of all outcomes that are contained in one event or

the other.
• The Intersection of two events A, B , denoted as A ∩ B,

consists of all outcomes that are contained in one event and
the other. Contents
Introduction
A∪B A∩B Probability
Randomness
Terminology
Probability Rules
A B A B Conditional Probability
events
Probability
Random Variables
Probability Models
• c 0 Geometric Model
The Complement of an event B, denoted as B B or B ,

, Binomial Model
is the set of outcomes in the sample space that are not PROBLEMS
contained in B. SUMMARY III:
7.17
Formal Probability (Axioms, by A. Kolmogorov, 1933)
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
Axiom A1: A probability is a number between 0 and 1. An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
0 ≤ P[E] ≤ 1
Axiom A2: The sample space S has probability 1
Contents
The probability of S (all possible outcomes of a trial) must be 1.
Introduction
Probability
P[S] = 1 Randomness
Terminology
Probability Rules
Axiom A3: Probabilities of disjoint events A, B ⊂ Ω, and A ∩ B = ∅: Dependent and Independent
events
Probability
P[A ∪ B] = P[A or B] = P[A] + P[B] Random Variables
Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
Axiom A3b: Compliment Rule (obtained from Axioms A2 and A3)
PROBLEMS
The probability of an event B occurring is 1 minus the probability SUMMARY III:
that it doesn't occur P[B] = 1 − P[B]. Emerging Applications
7.18
Examples
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Example
What is the probability of NOT drawing a heart card from 52 deck

cards?
Contents
Answer: Introduction
Probability
Let E be the event of getting a heart from 52 deck cards. Randomness
We have p(E) = 13/52 = 1/4. Terminology
Probability Rules
By the compliment rule, the probability of NOT getting a heart
card is events
p(E) = 1 − p(E) = 3/4. Probability
Random Variables
Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.19
Extensions of Axiom A3
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
General Addition Rule, the 1st extension of Axiom A3:
For nonmutually exclusive or overlapping events, A ∩ B 6= ∅,
since P[A and B] = P[A ∩ B] 6= 0 then:

Contents
Introduction
P[A ∪ B] = P[A or B] = P[A] + P[B] − P[A ∩ B]. Probability
Randomness
Terminology
Probability Rules
If A ∩ B = ∅, they are disjoint, Dependent and Independent
events
which means they can't occur together, then, Concept of Conditional
Probability
P[A ∪ B] = P[A] + P[B]. Random Variables
Probability Models
Geometric Model
What if we have more than two events? Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.20
Examples
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Example (1)
If you choose a number between 1 and 100, what is the probability

that it is divisible by either 2 or 5?
50 20 10 3
Short Answer: 100 + 100 − 100 = 5 Contents
Introduction
Probability
Example (2) Randomness
Terminology
There are a survey that about Probability Rules
45% of VN population has Type O blood, Conditional Probability
40% type A, 11% type B and

events
the rest type AB. Concept of Conditional
Probability
Random Variables
What is the probability that a blood donor has Type A or Type B? Probability Models
Geometric Model
Short Answer: 40% + 11% = 51%. WHY? Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.21
Axiom A3. Probabilities of disjoint events
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
• The 2nd extension of Axiom A3, generally, says
P(A1 ∪ A2 ∪ · · · ∪ Am ) = P(A1 ) + P(A2 ) + · · · + P(Am )
form mutually disjoint events, i.e. the intersection

Ai ∩ Aj = ∅ when 1 ≤ i 6= j ≤ m. Contents
Introduction
Probability
• The 3rd extension, so-called countably additive of Randomness
Terminology
probabilities is a generalization:
Probability Rules
∞ ∞
" #
[ X Dependent and Independent
P Ai = P(Ai ). events
i=1 i=1 Probability
Random Variables
NOTE: Here events Ai ⊂ S , and the sample space S can be either Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
* discrete if it consists of a finite or countable infinite. PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.22
Partitioning sample space
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
A ∪ A0 = Ω, B = B ∩ Ω = B ∩ A ∪ A0 =?.

Observe that and An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Contents
Introduction
Probability
Randomness
Terminology
Probability Rules
events
Probability
Random Variables
Events E1 , E2 , · · · , En (n ≥ 1) (n = 4 in the above figure) Probability Models
form a partition of set Ω if Geometric Model
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
(Ei ∩ Ej ) = ∅, ∀i 6= j, and E1 ∪ E2 ∪ · · · ∪ En = S. SUMMARY III:
7.23
General addition rule for n events
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
If events E1 , E2 , · · · , En (n ≥ 1) form a partition of set Ω, Contents
then for any event B, Introduction
Probability
n
Randomness
X
P[B] = P[B ∩ Ei ]. (1) Terminology
i Probability Rules
events
Probability
Random Variables
Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.24
Homework (DIY)
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Example (3)
In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians; 7 nurses and

3 physicians are females. If a staff person is selected, find the
probability that the subject is a nurse or a male.
Contents
The sample space is shown here: Introduction
Probability
Staff Females Male Total Randomness
Terminology
Nurses 7 1 8 Probability Rules
Physicians 3 2 5 Conditional Probability
Total 10 3 13 Dependent and Independent
events
Probability
The probability is:

Random Variables
P(nurse or male) = P(nurse) +P(male) - P(male nurse)

Probability Models
8 3 1 10
= 13 + 13 − 13 = 13
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.25
Dependent events
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Knowledge changes probabilities!

Event A and event B are dependent if the appearance of an event
is related (in a certain way) to the occurrence of the other event.
Contents
Introduction
Probability
Randomness
Terminology
Probability Rules
events
Probability
We next use event dependency to define Independence (ëc lªp ), Random Variables
then Conditional Probability (X¡c su§t câ i·u ki»n), given two Probability Models
events A, B , where B occurred. Geometric Model
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.26
Independent events
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Definition
Events A and B are independent whenever the occurrence of A is

not related to or not influenced by the occurrence of B , and the
other way round.
Then we write Contents
p(A | B) = p(A). Introduction
Probability
Randomness
• We can say the outcome of one event does not influence the Terminology
Probability Rules
probability of the other.
• Example: p(Head|It's raining outside) = p(Head) Dependent and Independent
events
Probability
NOTE: Disjoint 6= Independence Random Variables
Probability Models
Disjoint events cannot be independent. They have no outcomes in Geometric Model
common, so knowing that one occurred means the other did not.
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.27
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
Definition: The conditional probability p(A | B) = Probability of An Khuong, Le Hong

Trang
event A given that event B has occurred.

Two cases of interest:
1 When event A is independent of B , meaning the

occurrence of A is not influenced by B , then obviously
Contents
p(A | B) = p(A). Introduction
Probability
The joint probability of two independent events A, B Randomness
Terminology
then is defined as Probability Rules
p(A ∩ B) = p(B) · p(A) = p(A) · p(B). (2) Dependent and Independent
events
Probability
Random Variables
2 When A is dependent of B (A is influenced by B) Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
p(A | B) 6= p(A). PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
How to evaluate p(A | B) in the 2nd case? Emerging Applications
7.28
General Multiplication Rule gives Conditional Probability
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
In general, [no matter dependent or independent] we always have
p(A ∩ B) = p(B) × p(A | B) = p(A) × p(B | A) Contents
Introduction
Probability
Therefore, the conditional probability of event A given event B Randomness
Terminology
Probability Rules
p(A ∩ B)
p(A | B) = . (3)
p(B) Dependent and Independent
events
Probability
Random Variables
Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.29
Example
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
What is the probability of drawing a red card and then another red
card without replacement (khæng ho n l¤i )?
Contents
Solution: Let B be the event of drawing the first red card, and Introduction
A be the event of drawing the second red card. Clearly, Probability
Randomness
p(B) = 26/52 = 1/2, the conditional p(A | B) = 25/51. Terminology
So the event of drawing a red card and then another red card is Probability Rules
the joint probability Conditional Probability
p(A ∩ B) = p(B) × p(A | B) = 1/2 × 25/51 = 25/102. events
Probability
Random Variables
Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.30
Example
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Example (1)
The probability that Sam parks in a no-parking zone and gets a

parking ticket is 0.06, and the probability that Sam cannot find a
legal parking space and has to park in the no-parking zone is 0.20.
On Tuesday, Sam arrives at school and has to park in a no-parking
zone. Contents
Introduction
Find the probability that he will get a parking ticket.
Probability
Randomness
Terminology
Solution Probability Rules
N : parking in a no-parking zone Conditional Probability
T : get a ticket
events
∩T ) Concept of Conditional
p(T |N ) = p(N 0.06

p(N ) = 0.2 = 0.3
Probability
Hence, Sam has a 0.3 probability of getting a parking ticket, given

Random Variables
that he parked in a no-parking zone.

Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
REMARK: In general, p(A | B) 6= p(B | A), PROBLEMS
the conditional probability is not symmetric. SUMMARY III:
7.31
Bayes's Theorem
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Reminder: Trang
p(A ∩ B)
p(A | B) = .
p(B)
Note also that
p(B) · p(A | B) = p(A ∩ B) = p(B ∩ A) = p(A) · p(B | A) Contents
Introduction
Probability
Randomness
Terminology
Theorem (Bayes's Theorem- basic version) Probability Rules
We always have the following, for any pair of events A, B , where

we assume B occurred. events
Probability
p(A) · p(B | A) Random Variables
p(A | B) = . (4)
p(B) Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
Recall A = Ac = A0 = S \ A, the complement of event A. SUMMARY III:
7.32
Bayes's Theorem II
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
Theorem (Bayes's Theorem- full version) An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Given two events B, A where we assume B occurred.

p(A) · p(B | A)
p(A | B) =
p(A) · p(B | A) + p(A) · p(B | A)
Contents
Proof : Rule (1) gives Introduction
p(B) = p(B ∩ E1 ) + p(B ∩ E2 ), with E1 = A, E2 = A. Probability
Randomness
Example Terminology
Probability Rules
If we know that the probability that a person has tuberculosis (TB) is

p(TB) = 0.0005, also know p(+| TB) = 0.999 and p(−| TB) = 0.99. Dependent and Independent
events
What is p(TB| +) and p(TB| −)? Concept of Conditional
Probability
p(+|T B)p(T B) Random Variables
p(T B|+) =
p(+|T B)p(T B) + p(+|T B)p(T B) Probability Models
Geometric Model
0.999 × 0.0005 Binomial Model
= = 0.0476
0.999 × 0.0005 + (1 − 0.99) × (1 − 0.0005) PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
p(T B|−) = 0.99
7.33
Random Variable: Concepts
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
From now on, given a random experiment, we also write Ω for the An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
sample space (previously denoted S) of that experiment. Then we
perform observation or measurement on elements of Ω.
Definition
A random variable X is a map (function or measurement) from Contents
Ω to the reals R. That is for w ∈ Ω then X(w) ∈ R. Introduction
Probability
• The domain of variable X is the sample space Ω. Randomness
Terminology
• The range of variable X is the set of all observed values Probability Rules
RX = Range(X) = {X(w)} ⊆ R. Dependent and Independent
events
Probability
Random Variables
For any value b ∈ R, the preimage
Probability Models
Geometric Model
−1
A := X (b) = {w ∈ Ω : X(w) = b} ⊂ Ω Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
is an event, we define P[X = b] = Prob{X = b} := Prob(A). SUMMARY III:
7.34
Random Variable: Visualization of a random variable X
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Map X: Ω R The observed value set
The sample space Ω Range(X) Trang
ARIN
Contents
Introduction
Probability
Randomness
Terminology
In Entertainment industry, a random experiment can be defined as

Probability Rules
observing certain students of HCMUT, to get a sample space Ω of Dependent and Independent
students who like music (or art and drama).

events
Next we ask every w∈Ω about his/her unique favorite singer,

Probability
Random Variables
to make a random variable fan of
Probability Models
X : Ω −→ Range(X) = {x : x is good singer in the world}.

Geometric Model
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
Here specifically X(w) = b means b is the observed value at w.
{X = b} is A := X −1 (b), the violet square...
SUMMARY III:
Then event Emerging Applications
7.35
Random Variable: the probability density function
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
Now fix another singer with name ARIN, we then view the event An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
{X = ARIN} in the meaning of the set A := X −1 (ARIN),

it is the green oval consisting of fans of ARIN, obviously A ⊆ Ω,
so the probability Prob(A) does exist.

Contents
Definition
Introduction
In general, for a random variable X : Ω −→ Range(X), fix any Probability
A := X −1 (x) is an event and the

Randomness
value x ∈ Range(X), then Terminology
probability Probability Rules
|A|
P[X = x] := Prob(A) =
. Dependent and Independent
|Ω| events
Probability
• P[X = x] indicates how much chance observed value x Random Variables
occurred, and Probability Models
Geometric Model
• f (x) := P[X = x] called the probability density function

Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
(p.d.f ) of variable X at observation (or observed value) x. SUMMARY III:
7.36
Random Variable: Example revisited with calculation
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
• Sample space Ω = the set of HCMUT `musical' students,
ask each student w ∈ Ω to know his (her) most liked singer x

in the globe, X(w) = x, [x is the most liked singer of w.]
• If the university has 30000 students, and 1500 students like -
x = ‘ARIN 0
Contents
say singer (called observed value or measured
Introduction
value) then event

Probability
Randomness
−1
A := X (ÀRIN') = {w ∈ Ω : X(w) = ÀRIN'} ⊂ Ω Terminology
Probability Rules
has cardinality (i.e. the number of students) 1500, and
events
|A| 1500 Concept of Conditional
P[X = ÀRIN'] := Prob(A) =

Probability
= = 1/20.
|Ω| 30000 Random Variables
Probability Models
Geometric Model
f (ÀRIN') := P[X = ÀRIN'] = 1/20 is Binomial Model
the probability density or mass at the value `singer ARIN'. PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.37
Distinguish random variables and observed values
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Notation is used to distinguish between a random variable and the Trang
real observed values.
• A random variable is denoted by an uppercase letter

such as X (it is a map).
• After a measurement (observation) is conducted, the

Contents
measured value of the random variable is denoted Introduction
generally by a lowercase letter x (it is number or Probability
specific value), as Randomness
Terminology
Probability Rules
x = ADEL in Western entertainment industry, Conditional Probability
x = DONAL Trump in Politics, Dependent and Independent
events
x = 70 milliamperes in Electrical engineering, Probability
Random Variables
x = 1.7 meter in Public Health,
Probability Models
x = ‘success0 outcome in Business administration,

Geometric Model
Binomial Model
0
x = ‘f atal accident in Medical insurance...
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.38
Discrete random variable and Expected Value
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Definition (Discrete random variable - bi¸n ngü nhi¶n ríi r¤c) Trang
(1) A rand. variable X(.) is discrete if it has a discrete range,

meaning that the set of observed values consists of no more than a
countable number of elements, i.e. |SX | ≤ |N|.
Contents
In finite set case, |SX | < |N|, we usually write set of values
Introduction
Probability
SX := Range(X) = {x1 , x2 , x3 , · · · , xn−1 , xn }, n ∈ N. Randomness
Terminology
In countably infinite set case, |SX | = |N|, we write

Probability Rules
SX := Range(X) = {x1 , x2 , x3 , · · · , xn−1 , xn , . . .} events
Probability
Random Variables
(2) Expected value (gi¡ trà ký vång) of X Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
P
E[X] = x∈SX x · p(X = x) PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
where p(X = x) := P[X = x] is the density (mass) at x. Emerging Applications
7.39
The probability distribution table of a discrete variable
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
The finiteSX = {x1 , x2 , x3 , · · · , xn } helps us to compute the
probability distribution table of X , structured by
X x1 ··· xn−1 xn
pk := P[X = xk ] p1 ··· pn−1 pn .
Contents
Of course X Introduction
pk ≥ 0 and pk = 1. Probability
Randomness
xk ∈SX Terminology
The probability distribution table in Entertainment industry : Probability Rules
−1 events
A := X (ARIN) is the green oval, with |A| = 1500, Concept of Conditional
E := X −1 (b) is the violet square on the left, with |E| = 21000,

Probability
Random Variables
−1
and C := X (c) is the yellow oval, with |C| = 7500 students, Probability Models
Geometric Model
then we can find the densities

P pk and finally Binomial Model
check that xk ∈SX pk = 1? PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.40
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,

An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
The set of observed values (also called value space)
SX = {x1 , x2 , x3 } = {ARIN, b, c} gives
X x1 = ARIN x2 = b x3 = c
1 7 1
pi = P[X = xi ] p1 = p2 = p3 =
20 10 4 Contents
Introduction
Map X: Ω R The observed value set Probability

The sample space Ω Range(X) Randomness
Terminology
Probability Rules
ARIN
events
Probability
b
Random Variables
Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.41
Expectation (Expected Value) to Variability
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
Generally, assume that random variable X is discrete, with the An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
value space SX = Range(X) = {x1 , x2 , . . . , xn },

having the density pk = p(xk ), then we knew the expected value
(expectation or average) µ of X is given by
X
µ = E[X] = xk p k .
Contents
xk ∈SX
Introduction
Probability
Randomness
Definition
Terminology
The variability of the random variable X is expressed via two Probability Rules
concepts. Conditional Probability
events
• Variance of X is
Probability
Random Variables
X
V[X] = σ 2 := E[(X − µ)2 ] = [xk − µ]2 pk . Probability Models
Geometric Model
xk ∈SX Binomial Model
p PROBLEMS
• Standard deviation of X is σX = σ = V[X]. SUMMARY III:
7.42
Expected Value for Central Tendency of X
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Example: An insurance company Lif eInsu charges $50 a year. Trang
Can the company make a profit? Assuming that it made a

research on 1000 people and have following table:
Outcome Payroll (m) Probability p(X = x) = p(M = m)

1
Death 10,000 Contents
1000
2
Disability 5000 Introduction
1000
997
Good 0 Probability
1000 Randomness
Terminology
Or horizontally Probability Rules
X Death Disability Good Dependent and Independent
events
M (Payroll) 10,000 5000 0 Concept of Conditional
1 2 997 Probability
pi = P[X = xi ] p1 = p2 = p3 = Random Variables

1000 10000 1000
Probability Models
Geometric Model
X is a discrete random variable, so is the payroll M. Binomial Model
pi = P[X = xi ] = P[M = mi ],
Besides, where m1 = 10, 000, PROBLEMS
m2 = 5000, and m3 = 0. SUMMARY III:
7.43
Can company make a profit?
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
• X is discrete since customer's injury level has three values
(outcomes) Death, Disability and Good (nothing happen).
• The company expects that they have to pay for each

customer:
X X
E[X] = x · P(X = x) = m · P(M = m) Contents
Introduction
1 2 997 Probability
= $10, 000 ( ) + $5000 ( ) + $0 ( ) = $20. Randomness
1000 1000 1000 Terminology
Probability Rules
X Death Disability Good Conditional Probability

M (Payroll) 10,000 5000 0 events
1 2 997 Concept of Conditional
pi = P[M = mi ] p1 = p2 = p3 = Probability
1000 10000 1000 Random Variables
Probability Models
Expected money amount E[X] = E[M ] = µ = 20 USD per Geometric Model
say Lif eInsu gets profit 50 − 20 = $30

Binomial Model
customer. Well, shall we
PROBLEMS
per customer, in average?

SUMMARY III:
7.44
Variance: capture the Spreading, Risk or Variability
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
• Of course, the expected value $20 will not happen in reality Tran Tuan Anh, Nguyen
An Khuong, Le Hong
• There will be variability. Let's calculate!

Trang
• Variance (ph÷ìng
sai )
(x − E[X])2 · p(X = x)
P
V[X] =
X
V[X] = (m − E[M ])2 · p(M = m) = V[M ] Contents
Introduction
Probability
• V[M ] = 99802 ( 1 ) + 49802 ( 2 ) + (−20)2 ( 997 ) = Randomness

1000 1000 1000
Terminology
149, 600
Probability Rules
• Standard deviation (ë l»ch chu©n) Conditional Probability

p
SD(M ) = V[M ] Dependent and Independent
√ events
• SD(M ) = 149, 600 ≈ $386.78 Concept of Conditional
Probability
Random Variables
Probability Models
Comment Geometric Model
Binomial Model
The company expects to pay out $20, and make $30. However, PROBLEMS
the standard deviation of $386.78 indicates that it's no sure thing. SUMMARY III:
That's pretty big spread (and risk) for an average profit of $30.
7.45
Example
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Example
One thousand tickets are sold at 1 each for a color television

valued at 350. What is the expected value of the gain if you
purchase one ticket?
The problem can be set up as follows: Contents
Introduction
Win Lose Probability
Randomness
Terminology
Gain 349 −1 Probability Rules
1 999 Conditional Probability

probability
1000 1000 Dependent and Independent
events
The solution, then, is Probability
Random Variables
1 999 Probability Models

E[X] = $349( ) + (−1)( ) = −0.65
1000 1000 Geometric Model
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.46
SUMMARY II
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
• Probability theory: Concepts and operations Trang
• Random variable X with 5 key components

1 The observed value set Range(X) = SX
2 The probability density function (pdf) f (x) Contents
3 The probability cumulative function (or cdf) F (x) Introduction
Probability
4 Expectation (or average) E[X] = µ of X

Randomness
Terminology
2
5 Variance V[X] = σ of X , and the Standard deviation σ. Probability Rules
events
The last section is spent for Probability Models, which play an Probability
extremely important role nowadays in modeling of phenomena in Random Variables
Science, Engineering and Technology, in particular because of high Probability Models
Geometric Model
uncertainty of our world (war, epidemic, pandemic, risks in Binomial Model
cyberspace, calamity in environment, climate change...). PROBLEMS
See SUMMARY III of emerging applications at the end for more. SUMMARY III:
7.47
Bernoulli Trials
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Bernoulli variable or trial describes a random variable B Trang
that can take only two possible values, i.e. SB = {0, 1}.
Its probability density function is given by probability of suc-
cess P(B = 1) = p, and
P(B = 0) = 1 − p for some p ∈ [0, 1].

Contents
Expectation and variance E[B] = p; V[B] = p(1 − p). Introduction
Probability
Randomness
Terminology
Example Probability Rules
Some people madly drink Coca-Cola, hoping to find a ticket to see Dependent and Independent
Big Bang. Let's call tearing a bottle's label trial (ph²p thû ): events
Probability
• There are only possible outcomes (congrats or good luck)

Random Variables
• The probability of success, p, is the same on every trial, say Probability Models
Geometric Model
0.06 So Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
P(B = 1) = p = 0.06, P(B = 0) = 1 − p = 0.94 SUMMARY III:
7.48
Geometric Model (Mæ h¼nh h¼nh håc)
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Question: How long it will take us to achieve a success, given p,

the probability of success?
Contents
Definition (Geometric probability model: Geom(p))
Introduction
p = probability of success (q = 1 − p = probability of failure) Probability
X = number of trials until the first success occurs Randomness
Terminology
Probability Rules
p(X = x) = q x−1 p Conditional Probability
1 events
Expected value: µ= p Concept of Conditional
q Probability
q
Standard deviation: σ= p2 Random Variables
Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.49
Geometric Model: Example
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
Example
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
If the probability of finding a Sound Fest ticket is p = 0.06, how

many bottles do you expect to open before you find a ticket?
What is the probability that the first ticket is in one of the first
four bottles?
Contents
Solution
Introduction
Let X = number of trials until a ticket is found Probability
We can model X with Geom(0.06). Randomness
Terminology
1
E(X) = 0.06 ≈ 16.7 Probability Rules
events
P (X ≤ 4) = P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) + P (X = 3) + P (X = 4) Concept of Conditional
Probability
2
= (0.06) + (0.94)(0.06) + (0.94) (0.06) Random Variables
+(0.94)3 (0.06) Probability Models
Geometric Model
≈ 0.2193 Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
Conclusion:We expect to open 16.7 bottles to find a ticket. SUMMARY III:
About 22% of time we'll find one within the first 4 bottles. 7.50
Binomial Model (Mæ h¼nh nhà thùc)
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Previous Question: How long it will take us to achieve a success,

given p, the probability of success?
New Question: You buy 5 Coca-Cola. What's the probability you

get exactly 2 Sound Fest tickets?
Contents
Introduction
Definition (Binomial probability model: Binom(n, p))
Probability
n = number of trials Randomness
Terminology
p = probability of success (q = 1 − p = probability of failure) Probability Rules
X = number of successes in n trials Conditional Probability

n x n−x events
p(X = x) = p q Concept of Conditional
Probability
x Random Variables
Probability Models
Expected value: µ = np
√ Geometric Model
Standard deviation: σ = npq Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.51
Binomial Model: Example
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
Example
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Suppose you buy 20 Coca-Cola bottles. What are the mean and
standard deviation of the number of winning bottles among them?
What is the probability that there are 2 or 3 tickets?
Solution
Contents
Let X = number of tickets among n = 20 bottles Introduction
We can model X with Binom(20, 0.06). Probability
E(X) = np = 20(0.06)
p = 1.2
Randomness
√ Terminology
SD(X) = npq = 20(0.06)(0.94) ≈ 1.96 Probability Rules
P (X = 2 or 3) = P (X = 2) + P (X = 3) Dependent and Independent
events

20 20 Concept of Conditional
= (0.06)2 (0.94)18 + (0.06)3 (0.94)17 Probability
2 3 Random Variables
≈ 0.2246 + 0.0860 = 0.3106 Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
Conclusion: In 20 bottles, we expect to find an average of 1.2 PROBLEMS
tickets, with a sd of 1.06. About 31% of the time we'll find 2 or 3 SUMMARY III:
tickets among 20 bottles.

7.52
LECTURE 7's PROBLEMS
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
This part discusses Probability Theory with problem solving skills.

ASSUME that students have already studied Probability theory at
basic level in Lecture 7 at home, we practice the following Contents
contents today. Introduction
Probability
Randomness
1 GROUP A: Experiment and sample space Terminology
2 GROUP B: Compute probability of an event

Probability Rules
3 GROUP C: Independent events Dependent and Independent
events
4 GROUP D: Probability Models Concept of Conditional
Probability
Random Variables
Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.53
GROUP A: Experiment and sample space
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
We consider an experiment in information transmission in banking Trang
sector.
The experiment is to select a sequence of 5 letters for

transmission of a code in a money transfer operation.
Leta1 , a2 , . . . , a5 denote the first, ..., fifth letter chosen.
The sample space Ω is the set of all possible sequences of five Contents
letters. Formally, Introduction
Probability
Ω = {(a1 , a2 , . . . , a5 ) : ai ∈ {a, b, c, · · · , x, y, z}, i = 1, · · · , 5}.

Randomness
Terminology
Probability Rules
* This is a finite sample space containing 265 possible sequences Conditional Probability
of 5 letters, due to the multiplication rule in Equation ??. Dependent and Independent
events
* A sample point (sample unit or element) is any such sequence Concept of Conditional
Probability
(a1 , a2 , . . . , a5 ) in Ω. Random Variables
Probability Models
Quiz: Let E be the event that all the 5 letters in the se-
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
quence are the same. Describe E and find P[E]. PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.54
GROUP B: Compute probability of an event
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
We knew
Rule 1: P(A) + P(Ac ) = 1 or P(Ac ) = 1 − P(A)
Rule 2: If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) Contents
Introduction
Probability
But how to find P(A), for any A ⊂ Ω? Randomness
Terminology
Mostly use Counting Techniques: Probability Rules
1. Multiplication rule Conditional Probability
2. Permutation rule Dependent and Independent
events
3. Combination rule Concept of Conditional
Probability
Random Variables
Each has its special purpose that must be applied properly the Probability Models
Geometric Model
right tool for the right job! Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.55
GROUP C: Independent events
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Five identical departments are designed in a given commercial

bank.
Let E1 , E2 , · · · , E5 be the events that these five departments
comply with the quality specifications (non-defective, non bugs...).
Under the model of mutual independence the probability that all
Contents
the five departments are indeed non-defective is
Introduction
Probability
P(E1 ∩ E2 ∩ · · · ∩ E5 ) = P(E1 ) P(E2 ) · · · P(E5 ). Randomness
Terminology
Since these departments come from the same production process Probability Rules
(i.e. construction company), we can assume that Conditional Probability
P(Ei ) = p, all i = 1, · · · , 5. Dependent and Independent
events
Thus, the probability that all the 5 departments are non-defective

Probability
5
is p . Random Variables
Probability Models
Geometric Model
What is the probability that one department is defective and Binomial Model
all the other four are non-defective? PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.56
Independent events - HINTS
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
What is the probability that one department is defective and
all the other four are non-defective?
Let A1 be the event that one out of five parts is defective.

In order to simplify the notation, we write the intersection of
events as their product. Thus, Contents
Introduction
Probability
A1 = E1c E2 E3 E4 E5 ∪ E1 E2c E3 E4 E5 ∪ E1 E2 E3c E4 E5 Randomness
Terminology
Probability Rules
∪ E1 E2 E3 E4c E5 ∪ E1 E2 E3 E4 E5c . Conditional Probability
A1 is the union of five disjoint events. Therefore events
Probability
P(A1 ) = P(E1c E2 E3 E4 E5 ) + · · · + Random Variables
Probability Models
P(E1 E2 E3 E4 E5c ) = 5p4 (1 − p). Geometric Model
Binomial Model
Can you explain why? PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.57
GROUP D: Probability Models in Production Industry
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
Wafer Contamination in PC - Electronic Manufacturing

• Let the random variable X denote the number of wafers
that need to be analyzed to detect
a large particle of contamination. Contents
• Assume that the probability Introduction
that a wafer contains a large particle is p = 0.01, and Probability
Randomness
that the wafers are independent. Terminology
• Determine the probability distribution of X. Probability Rules
QUESTION events
Probability
How do we choose suitable probability distribution?

Random Variables
Bernoulli, Binomial or Geometric?

Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.58
Determine the probability distribution
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
Let y denote a wafer in which a large particle is present & An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
let n denote a wafer in which it is absent.
The set of sample wafers we took: Ω = {y, ny, nny, nnny, . . .}

• The range of the values of X is: SX = {1, 2, 3, 4, . . .} = N;
SX a countable set, associated with Ω.
Contents
• Hence X ∼ Geom(p), the probability distribution table is
Introduction
Probability
Probability Distribution Randomness
Terminology
P(X = 1) = 0.01 0.01 Probability Rules
P(X = 2) = (0.99)*0.01 0.0099 Conditional Probability
P(X = 3) = (0.99)2*0.01 0.009801 Dependent and Independent
events
P(X = 4) = (0.99)3*0.01 0.009703 Concept of Conditional
Probability
Random Variables
Probability mass (density) f[i] = P[X = i] Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
====== THE END OF LECTURE 7 ==========

7.59
SUMMARY III: Emerging Applications and Reminiscence
Huynh Tuong Nguyen,
An Khuong, Le Hong
Trang
1 Artificial intelligence
2 Climate change with Butterfly effect

Contents
3 Game theory
Introduction
4 Life game to Cellular Automata Probability
Randomness
5 Uncertainty engineering: history, current and future Terminology
Probability Rules
DISCLAIMER: this summary collects views of many generations of Dependent and Independent
computing students in HCMC- Vietnam to Discrete Mathematics.

events
Thank all of beloved students!

Probability
Random Variables
Probability Models
Geometric Model
Binomial Model
PROBLEMS
SUMMARY III:
7.60

Discrete Probability: Discrete Structures For Computing On September 30, 2021

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Discrete Probability

Huynh Tuong Nguyen,

Dependent and Independent

Hong Trang Geometric Model

Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering

University of Technology - VNUHCM

trtanh@hcmut.edu.vn - htnguyen@hcmut.edu.vn Emerging Applications

Huynh Tuong Nguyen,

University, Thailand for his contribution to this chapter. Introduction

Dependent and Independent

Concept of Conditional Probability Terminology

5 Random Variables Conditional Probability

Dependent and Independent

6 Probability Models Concept of Conditional

Binomial Model Probability Models

7 PROBLEMS Binomial Model

8 SUMMARY III: Emerging Applications SUMMARY III:

Course learning outcomes

L.O.2.1  Logically describe some problems arising in Computing Introduction

L.O.2.2  Use proving methods: direct, contrapositive, induction Probability

L.O.2.3  Explain problem modeling using discrete structures Randomness

L.O.3 Understanding of basic probability and random variables

L.O.3.1  Define basic probability theory Conditional Probability

L.O.3.2  Explain discrete random variables

L.O.4 Compute quantities of discrete structures and probabilities Random Variables

L.O.4.1  Operate (compute/ optimize) on discrete structures Probability Models

ones, Bayes theorem Binomial Model

• Real life problems Randomness

Dependent and Independent

• Computer Science: cryptology  deals with encrypting codes

or the design of error correcting codes

After careful study of basic probability, you should be able to

1 Compute and interpret probability of an event

2 Find probability of mixed events, including conditional Probability

components Conditional Probability

Dependent and Independent

4 Understand expectation and variance of a random variable events

Probability in practice Tran Tuan Anh, Nguyen

Probabilistic Methods help us to solve realistic problems as follows.

• Compute the risk of security breach to a computer system

2) In Finance Science and Insurance Industry

• Suppose an insurance company B has thousands of

customers, and each customer is charged $500 a year. Probability Rules

Dependent and Independent

experience the company B estimates that about 15% of their events

company expect to make per customer in a certain year? Emerging Applications

• The number you receive when rolling a fair dice

• The sequence for lottery special prize (by law!)

• Your blood type (No!)

• The pattern of your riding is random. Introduction

So what is special about randomness? Randomness

Could we Random Variables

believes to obtain from each customer Binomial Model

• Experiment (th½ nghi»m): Conditional Probability

given set of possible outcomes.

• Tossing a coin to see the face

• Sample space (khæng gian m¨u ): set of possible outcomes

• {Head, Tail} Geometric Model

• Event (sü ki»n): a subset of sample space. PROBLEMS

• You see Head after an experiment. {Head} is an event. SUMMARY III:

Experiment: Rolling a die. What is the sample space?

Experiment: Rolling two dice. What is the sample space? Randomness

Answer: It depends on what we're going to ask! Probability Rules

L.O.2.1 Logically describe some problems arising in Computing Introduction

L.O.2.2 Use proving methods: direct, contrapositive, induction Probability

L.O.2.3 Explain problem modeling using discrete structures Randomness

L.O.3.1 Define basic probability theory Conditional Probability

L.O.3.2 Explain discrete random variables

L.O.4.1 Operate (compute/ optimize) on discrete structures Probability Models

• Computer Science: cryptology deals with encrypting codes