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Probability
Review Refresher Course

Probability Review Refresher Course
Permutation
Engineers Esplana Realuyo & Co. Review Center Engr. Jemar Angelo G. Viloria, CE, SO2
Permutation
1. Carla is going to arrange her 4 books on a shelf: Algebra, Trigonometry, Geometry, and
Calculus. How many different possible arrangements can she make?
𝑆𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 1:
_ ∗_ ∗ _ ∗ _
4 ∗ _ ∗ _ ∗ _
4 ∗ 3 ∗ _ ∗ _
4 ∗ 3 ∗ 2 ∗ 1
24
𝑆𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 2:
4𝑃4 = 24
Permutation
2. In how many ways can King Arthur arrange 8 knights around a round table?
(𝑛 − 1)!
(8 − 1)!
7!
5040
3. A musical choir is composed of three sopranos, four altos, and five tenors, with no bass
singers. If trios are to be formed from the group, each composing of one soprano, one alto, and
one tenor, how many unique trios may be formed from the group?
Solution 1:
_ ∗_ ∗ _
3𝑃1 ∗ 4𝑃1 ∗ 5𝑃1
60
Solution 2:
3∗4∗5
60
Combination
Combination
4. Fifteen boxes can each hold one object. In how many ways can 10 identical objects can be
placed in the boxes?
15𝐶10 = 3003
5. From 6 lawyers, 5 engineers, and 4 accountants, a committee is to be formed consisting of 4
lawyers, 3 engineers, and 2 accountants. In how many ways can the committee be formed?
6𝐶4 ∗ 5𝐶3 ∗ 4𝐶2
900
6. Find the possible number of 5-card hands that contain four aces and one other card.
Given:
52 total cards
4 aces
4𝐶4 ∗ (52 − 4)𝐶1

4𝐶4 ∗ 48𝐶1
48
Probability
of an Event
Probability of an Event
7. In a class of 35 students, 13 are seniors, 9 are juniors, 8 are sophomores, and 5 are freshmen.
If one of the students is selected at random from this class, determine the probability that the
student is (a) a junior, (b) a freshman, and (c) a sophomore.
(a)
9 𝑗𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑜𝑟𝑠
𝑃 𝑗𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑜𝑟 =
35 𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠
0.2571
(b)
5 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑠ℎ𝑚𝑒𝑛
𝑃 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑠ℎ𝑚𝑎𝑛 =
0.1429
(c)
8 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑝ℎ𝑜𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠
𝑃 𝑠𝑜𝑝ℎ𝑜𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 =
0.2286
8. The probability that an adult reads a newspaper everyday is 0.68 and that adult is a male is
0.53. If these two events are independent, determine the probability that a randomly selected
adult is a female.
𝑃(𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒) = 0.53
𝑀𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑟 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠 𝑡𝑜 ℎ𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑛 = 1
𝑃(𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒) = 1 − 0.53
𝑃(𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒) = 0.47
9. A box contains 100 washers, 24 of which are brass, 36 copper, and the remainder, steel. One
washer is taken at random, retained, and another washer is similarly drawn. What is the
probability that one is brass and the other one is steel?
𝐵𝑟𝑎𝑠𝑠 = 24
𝑆𝑡𝑒𝑒𝑙 = 100 − 24 − 36 = 40
𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘 = 𝑏𝑟𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘 = 𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑒𝑙
𝑜𝑟
𝑆𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘 = 𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑒𝑙 𝑆𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘 = 𝑏𝑟𝑎𝑠𝑠
24 40 40 24
_ + _
100 99 100 99
0.1939
10. A point is selected at random inside a circle. Find the probability that the point is closer to
the center of the circle than to its circumference.
r/2
r/2
r
𝑃 𝑐𝑙𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑜 𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑖𝑟𝑐𝑙𝑒

𝑃= =
𝑃 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑖𝑟𝑐𝑙𝑒
𝑟 !
𝜋
= 2
𝜋𝑟 !
= 1/4
Conditional
Probability
Conditional Probability
𝑖𝑓 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠:
𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝐵 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝐴:

𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐴)
𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝐴 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝐵:

𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵)
Conditional Probability
11. The probability that a randomly selected student from a college and is a senior is 0.30, and the joint
probability that the student is a computer science major and a senior is 0.04. Find the conditional
probability that a student selected at random is a computer science major given that s/he is a senior.
Let:
A = the student selected is a senior
B = the student selected is a computer science major
Find the conditional probability of B given that A:

𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐴)
Given:
P(A and B) = 0.04
P(A) = 0.30
0.04
𝑃 𝐵𝐴 = = 0.1333
0.30
Comparison of
Dependent and
Independent
Variables
Comparison of Dependent and Independent Variables

12. When testing 1000 soldered joints, 4 failed during a vibration test and 5 failed due to high resistance.
Determine the probability of a joint failing due to (a) vibration or high resistance, and (b) vibration and
high resistance.
𝑆𝑎𝑦:
𝐴 = 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑑𝑢𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑣𝑖𝑏𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝐵 = 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑑𝑢𝑒 𝑡𝑜 ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒
(a) 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑑𝑢𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑣𝑖𝑏𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 < 𝑂𝑅 > ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒

4 5
𝑃 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵 = +
1000 1000
9
𝑃 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵 =
1000
(b) 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑑𝑢𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑣𝑖𝑏𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 < 𝐴𝑁𝐷 > ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒

4 5
𝑃 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵 = ×
1000 1000
1
𝑃 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵 =
50,000
Probability by
Tree Diagram
Method
Probability by Tree Diagram Method

13. At a particular company, 64% of the employees are forty years old or over. Of these employees, 83%
are enrolled in the company’s retirement plan. Only 61% of the employees under forty years old are
enrolled in the plan. Find the probability that a randomly selected employee is enrolled in the company’s
retirement plan.
0.83 Enrolled
Person is
≥ 40 y/o
0.64
0.17 𝑃 = 0.64 0.83 + 0.36 0.61
Not Enrolled
= 0.7508
0.61 Enrolled
0.36
Person is
< 40 y/o
0.39 Not Enrolled
Probability
Equations
Probability Equations
14. Samsung, a computer chip manufacturer, has found out that only 1 out of 2000 chips is defective. A
certain company ordered a shipment of chips. How many chips will the company order before the
probability that at least one chip is defective is 45%?
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑎 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑝 𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒:
1
𝑃 = = 0.0005
2000
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑎 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑝 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒:

𝑃 = 1 − 0.0005 = 0.9995
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑛𝑜 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑝 𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒:

𝑃 = 0.9995 "
𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑛 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑝𝑠
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑝 𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 = 45%

1 − 0.9995 " = 0.45 ← Probability Equation
𝑛 ≅↑ 1196 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑝𝑠
𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑝𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑛𝑦 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑟𝑑𝑒𝑟 𝑏𝑒𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑝 𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑖𝑠 45%:
𝑛 = 1996 − 1 = 1195 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑝𝑠
Probability Equations
15. One in 10,000 cars has a defect. How many of these cars can a car dealer sell before the probability of
selling at least one with a defect is 20%?
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑎 𝑐𝑎𝑟 𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒:

1
𝑃 = = 0.0001
10000
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑎 𝑐𝑎𝑟 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒:

𝑃 = 1 − 0.0001 = 0.9999
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑛𝑜 𝑐𝑎𝑟 𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒:

𝑃 = 0.9999 "
𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑛 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑝𝑠
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑟 𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 = 20%

1 − 0.9999 " = 0.20 ← Probability Equation
𝑛 ≅↑ 2232 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑠
𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑙 𝑏𝑒𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑟 𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑖𝑠 20%:
𝑛 = 2232 − 1 = 2231 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑝𝑠
Expectations
Expectations
16. The CITAA sells 100,000 tickets for a raffle and plans to give a grand prize of P150,000. The proceeds
of these sales will be used for scholarship program of the association. What is the mathematical expectation
for each ticket?
𝐸 = 𝑥 ∗ 𝑃(𝑥)
1
𝑃 𝑥 =
100,000
1
𝐸 = 𝑃150,000
100,000
𝐸 = 𝑃1.50
17. By investing in a particular stock, a person can make a profit per month of P4000 with a probability of
0.30 or take a loss of P1000 with a probability of 0.7. What is the expected gain per month?
𝑔𝑎𝑖𝑛 = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡 − 𝑙𝑜𝑠𝑠
𝐸#$%" = 𝐸&'()%* − 𝐸+(,,
𝐸#$%" = 𝑃4000 0.30 − 𝑃1000(0.70)
𝐸#$%" = 𝑃500.00
Probability
Distributions
Probability Distributions
Discrete Random
Variables
Discrete Random Variables
18. The following indicates the probability distribution of the number of breakdowns per month for a
computer based on the past data:
Probability 0.18 0.21 0.31 0.40 0.52
Breakdowns/month 0 1 2 3 4
Find the probability that the number of breakdowns for this computer is at most, 2.
𝑃 𝑥 ≤ 2 = 𝑃 0 + 𝑃 1 + 𝑃(2)
= 0.18 + 0.21 + 0.31
= 0.70
19. The following table gives the probability distribution of camcorders, sold on a given day at an
electronics store in SM Megamall.
Camcorders sold 0 1 2 3 4
Probability 0.73 0.16 0.06 0.04 0.01
(a) Find the mean for this probability distribution.
(b) Find the variance for this probability distribution.
(c) Find the standard deviation for this probability distribution.
𝐹𝑜𝑟 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑒 𝑅𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑜𝑚 𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠:
Mean Value:
𝜇 = ∑ 𝑥 𝑃(𝑥)
Variance:
𝜎! = ∑ 𝑥! 𝑃 𝑥 − 𝜇!
Standard Deviation:
𝜎= 𝜎! = ∑ 𝑥! 𝑃 𝑥 − 𝜇!
19. The following table gives the probability distribution of camcorders, sold on a given day at an
electronics store in SM Megamall.
Camcorders sold 0 1 2 3 4
Probability 0.73 0.16 0.06 0.04 0.01
(a) Find the mean for this probability distribution.
(b) Find the variance for this probability distribution. (a)
(c) Find the standard deviation for this probability distribution. 𝜇 = ∑ 𝑥 𝑃(𝑥)
𝜇 = ∑ 𝑥 𝑃(𝑥) 𝜇 = 0.44
! ! !
x P(x) xP(x) x2 x2P(x)
𝜎 =∑ 𝑥 𝑃 𝑥 −𝜇
0 0.73 0 0 0 (b)
! ! !
𝜎 = ∑ 𝑥 𝑃 𝑥 − 𝜇
𝜎 = 𝜎 ! = ∑ 𝑥 ! 𝑃 𝑥 − 𝜇! 1 0.16 0.16 1 0.16
𝜎 ! = 0.92 − 0.44!
2 0.06 0.12 4 0.24
𝜎 ! = 0.7264
3 0.04 0.12 9 0.36
4 0.01 0.04 16 0.16 (c)
∑=0.44 ∑=0.92 𝜎= 𝜎 ! = 0.7264
𝜎 = 0.8523
Binomial
Probability
Distribution
Binomial Probability Distribution
Probability:
𝑃 𝑥 = 𝑛𝐶𝑥 𝑝 - 𝑞 ".-
Mean:
𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝
Variance:
𝜎 ! = 𝑛𝑝𝑞
Standard Deviation:
𝜎= 𝜎 ! = 𝑛𝑝𝑞
where:
n = total number of trials
x = number of successes desired
p = probability of success in one trial
q = 1 − p = probability of failure in one trial
𝑃 𝑥 = 𝑛𝐶𝑥 𝑝 - 𝑞 ".- 20. Calculate the probability of passing a 10-question true or false quiz if the passing
𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝 score is 7 and all answers for each items are randomly guessed.
To pass, score must be 7 or up.
𝜎= 𝜎 ! = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 Therefore, probability of passing is:
where: 𝑃 𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 = 𝑃 7 + 𝑃 8 + 𝑃 9 + 𝑃 10
n = 10 (since it is a 10-item quiz)
p = probability of success in one trial Also, since it is a True or False question,
p = 0.50; q = 0.50
P 7 = 10𝐶7 0.5 / 0.5 01./ = 0.1171875

P 8 = 10𝐶8 0.5 2 0.5 01.2 = 0.0439453
P 9 = 10𝐶9 0.5 3 0.5 01.3 = 0.0097656
P 10 = 10𝐶10 0.5 01 0.5 01.01 = 0.0009766
𝑃 𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 = 0.172
𝑃 𝑥 = 𝑛𝐶𝑥 𝑝 - 𝑞 ".- 21. What is the standard deviation of the normal distribution that approximates a
𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝 binomial distribution consisting of 119 trials with probability of 0.7 success?
𝑛 = 119
𝜎= 𝜎 ! = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 𝑝 = 0.7
where: 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 = 0.3
p = probability of success in one trial
𝜎 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 = 119(0.7)(0.3)
𝜎≅5
Normal
Distribution
Normal Distribution
22. In a certain engineering school, approximately 9% of people are left-handed. Considering the school
has 1221 students and a normal distribution,
(a) What is the probability that at least 140 students are left-handed?
(b) What is the probability that at most, 100 students are left-handed?
(c) What is the probability that between 80 and 130 students are left-handed?
Z-score:
𝑥−𝜇
𝑧=
𝜎
for normal distribution, we can use Binomial Distribution formulas to approximate values needed:
𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝
𝜎= 𝜎 ! = 𝑛𝑝𝑞
Given:
𝑛 = 1221; 𝑝 = 0.09
𝑞 = 1 − 0.09 = 0.91
𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝 = 1221 0.09 = 109.89
𝜎 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 = 1221(0.09)(0.91) = 10
Normal Distribution
(a)
𝑥 − 𝜇 140 − 109.89
𝜇=109.89 𝑧 140 = = = +3.011
𝜎=10 𝜎 10
P(x) Use, Probability in Calculator.
𝑃 𝑧 ≥ +3.011 = 𝑅 +3.011 = 0.0013
z
0 +3.011
Normal Distribution
(a)
𝑥 − 𝜇 140 − 109.89
𝜇=109.89 𝑧 140 = = = +3.011
𝜎=10 𝜎 10
P(x) Use, Probability in Calculator.
𝑃 𝑧 ≥ +3.011 = 𝑅 +3.011 = 0.0013
(b)
𝑥 − 𝜇 100 − 109.89
𝑧 100 = = = −0.989
𝜎 10
Use, Probability in Calculator.
z 𝑃 𝑧 ≤ −0.989 = 𝑃 −0.989 = 0.0161
−0.989 0
Poisson
Distribution
Poisson Distribution
23. The number of cars entering the tool plaza on a bridge during the hour after midnight follows a
Poisson distribution with a mean of 20. What is the probability that 17 cars will pass through the toll plaza
during that hour on any given night?
Probability for Poisson Distribution:

𝜇 - 𝑒 .4
𝑃 𝑥 =
𝑥!
Usually, probability distribution that involves time in the problem,
in this case, an “hour on any given night”, Poisson Distribution is used.
Given:
𝜇 = 20
𝑥 = 17
200/ 𝑒 .!1
𝑃 17 = = 0.076
17!
Exponential
Distribution
Exponential Distribution
Probability for Exponential Distribution:

𝑃 𝑥 ≥ 𝑎 = 𝑒 .5$
𝑃 𝑥 ≤ 𝑎 = 1 − 𝑒 .5$
𝑃 𝑎 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 𝑏 = 𝑒 .5$ − 𝑒 .56
Where:
1
𝜆=
a b 𝜇
Exponential Distribution
24. The time taken by terminal fee collector to collect terminal fees from passengers entering NAIA is an
exponential distribution with a mean of 23 seconds. What is the probability that a random passenger will
be processed in 25 seconds or more (that is, will take more than 25 seconds)?
Given:
𝜇 = 23
1 1
𝜆= = = 0.043478
𝜇 23
𝑎 = 25
𝑃 𝑥 ≥ 𝑎 = 𝑒 .5$
𝑃 𝑥 ≥ 25 = 𝑒 .1.1898/2(!;)
= 0.3372
Evaluation
Evaluation
1. In a raffle, the prizes include the first prize of Php 3000, five second prizes of Php 1000 each, and
twenty third prizes of Php 100 each. In all, 10,000 tickets are sold at Php 1.50 each. What is the expected
net winnings of one person who buys one ticket?
𝑁𝑒𝑡 = 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑧𝑒 – 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡

𝐸"=* >%""%"#, = 𝐸&'%?= − 𝐸@(,* (all in “𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑡”)
𝑃ℎ𝑝3000 + 𝑃ℎ𝑝5 1000 + 𝑃ℎ𝑝20(100)
𝐸&'%?= = = 𝑃ℎ𝑝 1.00
10,000 𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑡𝑠
𝐸@(,* = 𝑃ℎ𝑝 1.50 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑡 (𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒)
𝐸"=* >%""%"#, = 𝑃ℎ𝑝 1.00 − 𝑃ℎ𝑝 1.50 = 𝑃ℎ𝑝 − 0.50 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑡
Evaluation
2. A computer technician notes that 40% of computers fail because of the hard-drive, 25% because of the
monitor, 20% because of the disk drive, and 15% because of the microprocessor. If the problem is not in the
monitor, what is the probability that is in the hard-drive?
𝑃(ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑑 − 𝑑𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑒) 0.40
𝑃= = = 0.5333
𝑃 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 − 𝑃(𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑜𝑟) 1 − 0.25
3. Suppose we have a random variable x where the probability is associated with the value
10Ck(0.37) (0.63)
k 10-k, for k = 0 to 10. What is the mean?
𝐺𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 (𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝐵𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐹𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑠):

𝑛 = 10
𝑝 = 0.37
𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝 = 10 0.37 = 3.7
Evaluation
4. You have just stepped into the tub to take a shower when one of your contact lenses fall out and
luckily, you have not yet turned on the shower. Assuming that the lens is equally likely to land anywhere on
or inside the tub having a dimension of 50 inches by 26 inches with a drain of diameter of 2 inches,
determine the probability that it landed on the drain?
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑖𝑡 𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛:
𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛
𝑃=
𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝑤ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑒 𝑡𝑢𝑏
𝜋𝑟 ! 𝜋 1 !
𝑃= = = 0.002417
𝐿 ∗ 𝑊 50 ∗ 26
5. The Court of Appeals has 9 justices. On a certain case, the justices voted to 5:4 in favor of the
defendant. In how many ways could this have happened?
𝑛𝐶𝑟 = 9𝐶5 = 9𝐶4 = 126
6. Based on data from previous examinations, the expected percentage of Civil Engineering Licensure
Examination passers this April 2023 is 40%. If 15,000 has successfully applied for this exam, but only 50%
of these applicants will actually take the board exam, how many are expected to pass?
𝑥 = 50% 15000 = 7500
𝑃(𝑥) = 0.40
𝐸 = 𝑥𝑃(𝑥) = 7500(0.40) = 3000
Evaluation
7. A batch of electronics parts contain 16, which are within a power tolerance, and 4, which are not. If 3
electronics parts are selected at random from the batch, compute the probability that all three are within
the power tolerance.
16 15 14
𝑃= × × = 0.4912
20 19 18
8. You are buying a new car. There are seven different colors to choose from and ten different types of
optional equipment you can buy. You can choose only one color for your car and can afford two of the
options. How many combinations are there for your car?
𝐶 = 7𝐶1×10𝐶2 = 315
9. A certain type of missile hits its target with a probability of 0.3. How many missiles should be fired so
that there is at least 80% probability of hitting a target?
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑎 𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑙𝑒 ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑡 = 0.3
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑎 𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑙𝑒 𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑡 = 1 − 0.3 = 0.7
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑛 𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑡 = 0.7 "
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑛 𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑠 ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑡 = 1 − 0.7 " = 80%
1 − 0.7 " = 0.80
𝑛 = 4.5123 ≅↑ 5
Evaluation
10. The probability of event x happening is 3/5. The probability of event y happening is 2/3. What is the
probability that only x will happen?
𝑘𝑒𝑦𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑑 𝑖𝑠 “𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦” 𝑥 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 ℎ𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑛

𝑃 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 𝑥 = 𝑃 𝑥 ×𝑃 𝑦 𝑁𝑂𝑇 ℎ𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔
𝑃(𝑥) = 3/5
2 1
𝑃 𝑦 𝑁𝑂𝑇 ℎ𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 = 1 − =
3 3
3 1 1
𝑃 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 𝑥 = ∗ =
5 3 5

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Probability

Review Refresher Course

4𝐶4 ∗ (52 − 4)𝐶1

𝑃 𝑐𝑙𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑜 𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑖𝑟𝑐𝑙𝑒

𝑖𝑓 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠:

𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝐵 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝐴:

𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝐴 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝐵:

Find the conditional probability of B given that A:

Comparison of Dependent and Independent Variables

(a) 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑑𝑢𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑣𝑖𝑏𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 < 𝑂𝑅 > ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒

(b) 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑑𝑢𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑣𝑖𝑏𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 < 𝐴𝑁𝐷 > ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒

Probability by Tree Diagram Method

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑎 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑝 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒:

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑛𝑜 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑝 𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒:

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑝 𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 = 45%

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑎 𝑐𝑎𝑟 𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒:

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑎 𝑐𝑎𝑟 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒:

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑛𝑜 𝑐𝑎𝑟 𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒:

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑟 𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 = 20%

P 7 = 10𝐶7 0.5 / 0.5 01./ = 0.1171875

Probability for Poisson Distribution:

Probability for Exponential Distribution:

𝑁𝑒𝑡 = 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑧𝑒 – 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡

𝐺𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 (𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝐵𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐹𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑠):

𝑘𝑒𝑦𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑑 𝑖𝑠 “𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦” 𝑥 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 ℎ𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑛

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