MZUMBE UNIVERSITY

FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCE

PROGRAMME: BSC.ECO P&D II

SUBJECT NAME: ECONOMETRICS II

SUBJECT CODE: ECO 222

LECTURER: DR. E. MKUNA

SUBMISSION DATE: 12TH MAY, 2023

GROUP ASSIGNMENT: GROUP 2

S/N NAMES REGISTRATION
1 IRENE J. WILSON 13317034/T.21
2 BARAKA J. KALORI 13317042/T.20
3 EMMANUEL S. ISACK 13317024/T.21
4 REGINA S. MCHOME 13317044/T.21
5 EZRON B. KAGULIRO 13317037/T.21
6 AMIN B. JOEL 13317041/T.21
7 HELLEN D. MAGISA 13317031/T.21
8 ALIYU ASHIMU 13317018/T.21
9 HALFANI G. MGATA 13317043/T.21

1O FLORA P. MLINA 13317040/T.21

11 MOHAMMED MASANJA 13317017/T.21

12 CHRISTINA G.MWAMASANGULA 13317021/T.21

ASSESSMENT OF THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR YOUTH
UNEMPLOYMENT AT MZUMBE DISTRICT IN
MOROGORO, TANZANIA.
 TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................ i

CHAPTER ONE ........................................................................................................................ 1

1.0 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Background Information.......................................................................................... 1

1.2 Statement of Problem. ............................................................................................. 3

1.3 Research Objectives ................................................................................................ 4

1.4 Research Questions.................................................................................................. 4

1.5 Significance of the Study......................................................................................... 4

1.6 The Scope the Study ................................................................................................ 5

CHAPTER TWO ....................................................................................................................... 6

2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................ 6

2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 6

2.2 Conceptualization of terms ...................................................................................... 6

2.3 Empirical Literature Review ................................................................................... 8

2.4 Theoretical Review .................................................................................................. 9

2.4.1 The Classical Theory ............................................................................................. 10

2.5 Research Gap ......................................................................................................... 11

2.6 Conceptual framework. ......................................................................................... 11

CHAPTER THREE ................................................................................................................. 13

3.0 METHODOLOGIES ................................................................................................. 13

3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 13

3.2 Study Area ............................................................................................................. 13

3.3 Sample and Sample Size........................................................................................ 13

3.4 Data Sources .......................................................................................................... 13

3.4.1 Primary Data .......................................................................................................... 14

3.4.2 Secondary Data ...................................................................................................... 14

 3.5 Data Collection Methods ....................................................................................... 14

3.6 Variables and their Measurements ........................................................................ 16

3.7 Variables measurements and descriptions................................................................. 17

CHAPTER FOUR .................................................................................................................... 18

4.0 PRESENTATION OF FINDINGS ........................................................................... 18

4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 18

4.2 General characteristic of study variable ................................................................ 18

4.3 Results of Economic Analysis ............................................................................... 20

CHAPTER FIVE ..................................................................................................................... 22

5.0 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS.................................................................................. 22

5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 22

5.2 Discussion on the assessment of Driving Factors to Youths’ Unemployment in

Mvumero District. ............................................................................................................ 22

CHAPTER SIX ........................................................................................................................ 23

6.0 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION ........................................................ 23

6.1 CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................... 23

6.2 RECOMMENDATION ............................................................................................ 23

BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................................... 24
 ABSTRACT
Youth unemployment at Mzumbe Ward has become a serious problem where most of the
graduates remain unemployed although they deserve to be employed. The problem is not only
serious in Mzumbe ward but almost in the whole country (TANZANIA) where most of youth
including university graduates are jobless. The main objective of this study is basically to
assess the driving factors for youth unemployment particularly around the Mzumbe ward in
Morogoro while the specific objectives were to assess the driving factors for youth
unemployment in Mvomero district, to examine the collective impacts of youth
unemployment in Tanzania a case of Mvumero district and to suggest reliable measures in
attempting to relieve the types of youth unemployment in Mvomero district. The
questionnaires designed in the study are closed ended, open ended and the combination of
both instruments. Questionnaires were distributed to 100 respondents represented in terms of
numbers. The binary logit and probit regression analysis was used to analyze the data to
observe the relationship between variables using strata software in running data. The study
found that the marital status, work experience and education had positively significant
influence on youth unemployment at Mzumbe ward. It also found that age and sex had
insignificant effect on youth unemployment in Mzumbe. The study recommended that, due to
the fact that unemployment is a critical issue that cannot be solved in a short period.
However, the measures like change in the education system, assistance to self-employed
people, change in the industrial technique and introduction of government policies can help to
tackle the situation.

i
 CHAPTER ONE
1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background Information

Youth unemployment is a critical issue facing many countries around the world. The problem
has been particularly acute in recent years, with the COVID-19 pandemic leading the
economic challenges faced by young people. Youth unemployment can have far-reaching
consequences, including social exclusion, poverty, increased crime rates, and reduced
economic growth (International Labor Organization, 2020). To address this problem, it is
important to understand the underlying factors that contribute to youth unemployment.
(Gorlich, 2013) (Arulampalam, 2000)

This study will explore a range of factors that contribute to youth unemployment, including
education and skills, economic recession and slow growth, infrastructure and job creation
policies, discrimination, and entrepreneurship and innovation. The study will also examine
the impact of these factors on young people’s experiences of unemployment, including their
mental health, social well-being, and economic prospects.

The global economic crisis reverses the evenly fall of youth unemployment rates towards the
period 2002-2007. Starting 2007 the global unemployment again begins to raise and keep on
increasing between 2008 and at the peak of the global economic crisis in 2009. Globally, the
youth unemployment rate has remained to its crisis peak in 2009. At 12.6 percent in 2011 and
projected at 12.7 percent in 2013. Almost 75 million youths are unemployed around the
world, an increase of the more than 4 million from 2007 (World Bank report 2010).

In most African countries, unemployment, under-employment and poverty levels have

continued to increase and have remained extremely high levels despite considerable efforts to
promote sustainable development by national governments and international development
agencies (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa , 2002). Although youth
unemployment seems as a universal problem, it is much obvious and a ticking time bomb in
the developing countries.

In Tanzania, 64 percent of the population is under 24 and those aged (15-35) account for 34
percent of the entire population of more than 45 million people. They represent the largest
generation in history in an era of Peak Youth; a diverse group of people with different needs,
skills and aspirations — and they are increasingly connected. In the developing countries, the

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problem of youth unemployment draws attention due to several reasons. Foremost, the youth
constitute a significant proportion of the population as suggested by (Okojie, 2003), for
instance, in Tanzania 68 per cent of the population is made up of young people aged between
15 to 35 years (National Bureau of Statistics, 2011). Second, youth agenda has been used in
political campaigns as it is the case in Tanzania’s ruling party Chama Cha Mapinduzi, CCM
manifesto during campaigns youth were promised to get employment, as the ruling party
promised to create one million employment within first five years (2005-2010), wrapped up
by its campaigns slogan christened “Ari Mpya, Kasi Mpya, Nguvu Mpya literary translating
into New zeal, Speed and Vigor. Ultimately, the youth remained unemployed and turn to be
dependent to families and the larger society. The youth being one of the scarce resources that
these countries blessed with, failure in utilizing this resource effectively may lead in the
vicious cycle of poverty and retarded future of country’s economic growth to greater extent.

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1.2 Statement of Problem.
Youth in any country constitute a large portion of dependable workforce. Meaning full in
economic growth of country require a reasonable utilization of youth as a driving labor force
of a nation [URT, 2011]. Securing decent and wellbeing job is a dream and inspiration of
every young person in Tanzania [World Bank, 2014], however youth unemployment situation
remain one of the key challenges in Tanzania. It is also estimated that over 800000 young
men and women enter in the labor market in Tanzania every year. These comprise school and
college graduate and people who have been migrated from rural areas to urban areas (World
Bank, 2014). Various initiatives by the government of Tanzania such as policy formulations
and empowerment programs aimed at creating employment program for reducing youth
unemployment have been in place since 1996. Youth Development Fund is among of the
youth empowerment program aimed at creating employment opportunity for the youth
through soft loans provision. The program is expected to have significant contribution in the
reduction of the youth unemployment since it is implemented in every local Government
Authority. Yet, despite being the long time youth credit source in Tanzania, the
unemployment is still increasing among the youth, where by in Tanzania there is an increase
of 0.43% from 2019 which was 3.96% in 2020 and 9.5% in 2021 and 2022 unemployment
were decrease to 9.3%. According to NBS [2018]9.30% of the youth are being unemployed
people. Several studies have been conducted on youth unemployment in Tanzania; for
instance, Haji (2015) reported that there was still long-lasting unemployment among the
youth by 9.9% in 2015. At the same note’s studies by Mussa (2013), Gaima (2014) and
Tarimo (2019) revealed that, the intention of Youth Development Fund in creating
employment opportunity was not well met. Additionally, these studies identified inadequate
amount of loans provided by the Youth Development Fund to youth and delay in loans
disbursement as the factor contributing to low performance of the loan. Although those
studies were on Youth Development Fund, little is known on the contribution to youth
employment opportunities creation. Therefore, this study aimed at assessing the youth
unemployment at Mvomero District.

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1.3 Research Objectives

1.3.1 General Objective

The major objective of this study is basically to assess the driving factors for youth’s
unemployment in Tanzania majoring on the case of Mvumero district in rural localities.

1.3.2 Specific Objectives

1.0 To access the driving factors for youth unemployment in mvumero district.
2.0 To examine the collective impacts of the youth’s unemployment in Tanzania the case of
Mvumero district.
3.0 To provide or suggest reliable measures in attempting to relieve the types of youth’s
unemployment in Mvumero district.

1.4 Research Questions.

i. What are the impacts of unemployment on the youth’s in mvumero district?
ii. What are the factors which will cause the youth’s employment directly or indirectly
in mvumero district?
iii. What are the effects of youth’s unemployment to the economy of the whole Tanzania
regarding the case of mvumero district?
iv. What are the driving factors for youth unemployment in mvumero district and which
are reflecting to the country as a whole?

1.5 Significance of the Study

i. The findings of the study will unveil the real situation faced by most of the youth on
the case of employment and earnings.
ii. The findings of this study will rise suggestions what really has to be done,
amendments to be made within the education systems and policies that have to be
raised to overcome the situation.
iii. The study will provide information for other academic purposes, for instance human
resources programs to get information on the case of youth’s employment.
iv. The study will provide a way forward for other researchers who will be interested in
the same field of study.

4
1.6 The Scope the Study
The study will focus on the factors that are mainly the cause of increased youths’
unemployment within the study area and face directly the youths. The study was conducted in
mvumero district specifically the rural areas. There are both cases of employed, self-
employed and unemployed youths within the specified area that making it easier for data
collection for the research. Also, the area contains other groups of individuals for
contribution on the matter of data collection like the aged and the case of gender bases, there
will also manage to balance in this case. Easiness of movement and meeting of different but
also a lot of youths in the area will reduce the cost of research in action of accomplishment of
the intended goals to be met.

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 CHAPTER TWO
2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction

All literature reviews which have been obtained from the internet, books, journals, other
previous studies and reports have been discussed. The first part of this chapter consists of
conceptualization of terms, the second part of the chapter is historical review, the third part is
theoretical literature review which explains a bit on the review of theories and ideas relevant
for the role of youth’s unemployment in nation building. The fourth part is the empirical
literature review that shows similar research findings and studies relevant to the problem
understudy as well as the conceptual framework of the study.

2.2 Conceptualization of terms

2.2.1 Youth

The United Nations defines youth as persons between the ages of 15 and 24 with all UN
statistics based on this range, the UN states education as a source for these statistics. The UN
also recognizes that this varies without prejudice to other age groups listed by member states
such as 18 to 30.

2.2.2 Unemployment

According to the international labour Organizations (ILO), unemployment refers to those

people who have not worked more than one hour during the short reference period but who
are available for and actively seeking work.

According to Unemployment, is a situation in which a member or person is able and willing

to work and are actively, seeking work at the prevailing wage rate are unable to find jobs.
Unemployment includes those who do not have a job, would be available for work and have
been actively searching for work.

Unemployment according to the OECD is persons above a specified age not being in paid
employment or self-employment but currently available for work during the reference period.

Unemployment is a multidimensional concept which involves economic, politic and social

dimensions. It is a difficult concept to define and measure since it depends on the economy of
the areas, social settings, culture and education system (Wikipedia).

6
2.2.2.1 Types of Unemployment

The following are the types of unemployment according

I. Frictional Unemployment

Frictional unemployment is caused by temporary transitions in workers’ lives, such as

when a worker moves to a new city and has to find a new job. Frictional
unemployment also includes people just entering the labor force, such as freshly
graduated college students. It is the most common cause of unemployment, and it is
always in effect in an economy.

II. Structural unemployment.

Structural unemployment is caused by a mismatch in the demographics of workers

and the types of jobs available, either when there are jobs available that workers don’t
have the skills for, or when there are workers available but no jobs to fill. Structural
unemployment is most obvious in industries undergoing technological advancements.
For example, in the farming industry, much of the work is becoming mechanized,
which means that fewer farmers are needed, and many are let go. When these farmers
go to cities to find work, they may find no other similar jobs in which to apply their
skills.

III. Cyclical unemployment.

Cyclical unemployment is caused by declining demand: when there is not enough

demand in an economy for goods and services, businesses cannot offer jobs.
According to Keynesian economics, cyclical unemployment is a natural result of the
business cycle in times of recession: if all consumers become fearful at once,
consumers will attempt to increase their savings at the same time, which means there
will be a decrease in spending, and businesses will not be able to employ all
employable workers.

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 IV. Seasonal unemployment.

Seasonal unemployment is caused by different industries or parts of the labor market

being available during different seasons. For instance, unemployment goes up in the
winter months, because many agricultural jobs end once crops are harvested in the
fall, and those workers are left to find new jobs.

2.3 Empirical Literature Review

2.3.1 Literature Review in the Worldwide Context

Currently, youth unemployment is one of the global tragedies facing many countries in the
world as explained by many scholars who have made researches on such problem which
seems to have direct effect on nation building and development.

Previous studies on youth unemployment rate around the globe have provided significant
evidence on the problem of the youth unemployment problem. The study by (ILO, 2015)
investigated the determinants of youth labour market performance and their influences on the
future economic and social development of the CEE countries. The study reported that youth
unemployment has negative impact to country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The study
also reported that unemployment benefit, tax wage on labor cost has impact to youth
unemployment. The study also found that, countries with high rate of youth employed in
agriculture have a lower youth unemployment problem.

According to, throughout Europe, unemployment rates are higher among young people than
among the general population and as a result, there is serious risk of their marginalization and
exclusion (EC 1994). In 2000, the rate of youth unemployment within the European Union
(EU), was around sixteen percent (16%) more than twice, the unemployment rate experienced
by the adults that was seven percent (7%) (Hammer, 2003).

2.3.2 Literature Review in the Context of Africa.

According to (Garcia, 2008), more than eighteen million (18) million youths in Sub-Saharan
Africa were unemployed. This is about twenty one percent (21%) of the labor force of the
unemployed both youths and adult. Most of these youths were found in urban and sub urban
of African countries due to their migration from rural areas in seeking of employment
opportunities. This is due to the system of education in these countries, this is to say,

8
educational systems in African countries have witnessed the decline in quality, reality and
infrastructure at all levels in the last decade creating a lot of dependence on employment
only. They are geared towards providing basic literacy and numeracy and not industrial skill
and rapidly growing of unemployment in urban areas. This figure rose by thirty-two-point
five percent (32.5%) between the year 1993 and 2003 which is miserable literally.

2.3.3 Literature Review the context of Tanzania

Like many sub-Saharan African countries, Tanzania suffered from severe youth
unemployment and inactivity in urban areas in the 1990’s. Despite the sustained growth in
the second half of the last decade, labour market outcomes have deteriorated (Government of
Tanzania 2003). Unemployment is largely in urban phenomenon in Tanzania, which might be
due to severe migration of youths from the rural areas to urban areas seeking for more
beneficial employment opportunities, thus ending into a massive unemployment.

Youth unemployment refers to the share of the labour force ages 15-24 without work but
available for and seeking employment (Tanzania Youth Unemployment Rate 1991-2021 |
Macro trends)

i. Tanzania youth unemployment rate for 2019 was 3.57%, a 0.03%

increase from 2018.
ii. Tanzania youth unemployment rate for 2018 was 3.54%, a 0.06%
decline from 2017.
iii. Tanzania youth unemployment rate for 2017 was 3.59%, a 0.06%
decline from 2016.
iv. Tanzania youth unemployment rate for 2016 was 3.65%, a 0.04%
decline from 2015.

2.4 Theoretical Review

In the case of unemployment, many theories and assumptions have been developed which
explain on why and how unemployment arises within countries. The followings are some of
the theories used in this study.

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2.4.1 The Classical Theory

Classical, or real-wage, unemployment, occurs when real wages for a job are set above
the market clearing level, causing the number of job-seekers to exceed the number of
vacancies. On the other hand, most economists argue that as wages fall below a live able
wage, many choose to drop out of the labor market and no longer seek employment. As
analyzed by (Pigou, 1933), argues that, the labor market consists of demand and supply of
labor. Demand of labor is a derived demand, obtained from the declining portion of the
marginal product of labor. The demand curve is a negative function of real wage in that, if
wages increases the quantity demand for labor will decline and the vice versa is always
certain to this case. For such case, the labor market will flood when the wages are high or
within live able amount to attract more individuals to join the labor market, while otherwise
do not.

Figure 2: Phillip’s curve deducing unemployment rate and inflation rate relationship.

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2.5 Research Gap

The study driving factors for the youth unemployment, obstacles or we can say challenges
met by mostly youths in job finding as part of the process in meeting their life visions. The
studies show that, the research hasn’t been carried in mvumero district particularly the
Mzumbe ward, thus this study will address the following gaps: to investigate the type of
youth unemployment experienced by most youths living in mvumero district, to investigate
how new opportunities can be created and made readily available for youths within the
mvumero district.

2.6 Conceptual framework.

Economic growth and development can only be sustained when we are able to nurture the
young, so that they grow up into productive and responsible adults who can cope up with the
changing environment and the run of technologies. Failure to do so, results in negative
consequences not only to the economy but to the entire society as peace and order problem
will arise. In this case, we can say that education is a vital investment that can be made in
both human and physical capital coupled with the technology at current level. Educational
improvements and timely amendments of the education systems and policies to cope the
situation will play a pivotal role in the economy and society at large.

Below are the driving factors for the youth unemployment in mvumero District for this case
they are the independent variables in this study.

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Independent Variables Dependent
variable

Sex

Working Experience
Driving Factors for
YOUTH Unemployment in
Mvumero District

Education Factors

Marital Status

Figure3: The driving factor for youth unemployment.

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 CHAPTER THREE
3.0 METHODOLOGIES

3.1 Introduction
This chapter is concerned with how the study was conducted. It will cover the locale of the
study area, the sample size, the chapter further presents the methods or data gathering
instruments which will be used to collect data and procedures of data analysis and general
characteristic of the sample.

3.2 Study Area

The study was conducted in Morogoro region, within the mvumero district, Areas of
changarawe, kilima-hewa, mongorwa, mlari, and mzumbe wards were studied to obtain data
as the accumulate many youths both employed a non-employed with inclusion of those self-
employed. The areas were chosen because of its geographical layout, as it is easier to reach
the required population with minimal cost at access a larger number of individuals.

3.3 Sample and Sample Size

According to Adam (2008), he defined sample as a subset of universal set of population. The
sample of the study drew from the five named categories that is; the unemployed youths, the
employed youths, employees, parents and students within Mzumbe uninvest specifically the
Mzumbe ward. This study uses one hundred respondents, for possible access, accuracy and
manageability.

3.4 Data Sources

Wikipedia (2016) defines data as a set of values of qualitative or quantitative variables. Data
is facts or figures from which conclusions can be drawn. Gathering data can be a primary
source (researcher is the first person to obtain the data) or a secondary source (the researcher
obtains the data that has already been collected by other sources, such as data disseminated in
a scientific journal).

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3.4.1 Primary Data

Primary sources provide raw information and first-hand evidence. Examples include
interview transcripts, statistical data, questionnaires, experiments surveys and works of art. A
primary source gives you direct access to the subject of your research in a controlled or
uncontrolled environment this is also called the raw data information. Primary data is often
reliable, authentic, and objective in as much as it was collected with the purpose of
addressing a particular research problem. In this research, primary source of data is to be
collected using questionnaire tool; this is to get the in-depth information from the
respondents.

3.4.2 Secondary Data

Secondary data is the data that has already been collected through primary sources and made
readily available for researchers to use for their own research. It is a type of data that has
already been collected in the past. Researchers may have collected the data for a particular
project, and then made it available to be used by another researcher. The data may also have
been collected for general use with no specific research purpose like in the case of the
national census. Secondary data can be obtained from secondary sources such as reports,
websites, books, journals, documents and magazines.

In this study, secondary data involves visiting different sites and researches done by other
individuals, documentations, journals and records concerned with the study. The secondary
data is important to the researcher as to review the past information and show the trend of the
data.

3.5 Data Collection Methods

Data collection is defined as the procedure of collecting, measuring and analyzing accurate
insights for research using standard validated techniques. The most critical objective of data
collection is ensuring that information-rich and reliable data is collected for statistical
analysis so that data-driven decisions can be made for research.

The approach of data collection is different for different fields of study, depending on the
required information. In this study various methods of data collection are to be used such as
questionnaire, interview, focus group discussion and survey to acquire a much reliable data
for the study from all the concerned groups.

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3.5.1 Questionnaire

Questionnaire is as an instrument for research, which consists of a list of questions, along

with the choice of answers, printed or typed in a sequence on a form used for acquiring
specific information from the respondents (Kumar, 2011). Panneerselvam (2004), who
argued that, a questionnaire consists of a set of well-formulated questions, to probe and
obtain responses from respondents. A questionnaire is a means of eliciting the feelings,
beliefs, experiences, perceptions, or attitudes of some sample of individuals. The respondents
will read the questions, interpret what is expected and then write down the answers
themselves. For the purpose of this research the questionnaire is clearly define, an individual
is required to fill the answer to the associated questions, the questionnaire are very flexible.
This tool was used because the study much concentrated on the respondents who were
educated. It was adopted in this study because it provided an adequate time for respondents to
give well thought answers and was free from the bias of interviewer since the respondents,
provided answers in own words.. This tool was used because the study much concentrated on
the respondents who were educated.

There are three basic types of questionnaire designed in this study

(i) Closed-ended
(ii) Open-ended
(iii)Combination of both instruments

3.5.2 Focus Group Discussion

Focus group discussion is a method, in which the researcher brings together a small number
of respondents to discuss the topic of interest (Rutman, 1996). Also we argued that, focus
group discussion relying on generating and analyzing interaction between participants rather
than, asking the same question to each group participant. Focus groups are used to gather
data, usually in the forms of opinions, from a selected group of people on a particular and
pre-determined topic. They can be a useful way to bring to the surface issues that might not
otherwise have been discovered: the dynamics of a group can often make people bolder in
advancing their opinions.

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3.6 Variables and their Measurements

Variables represent the measurable traits that change over the course of a scientific
experiment. In all the six basic types, the research topic based on dependent variable and
independent variables and thus a variable that changes in direct response to the independent
variable is dependent variable.

Measurement is the process of observation and recording the observations that are collected
as part of a research effort. Measurement is important in research since it determines the type
of statistical analysis that can be conducted and thus bringing to the conclusions that can be
drawn from the research.

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3.7 Variables measurements and descriptions
Code Variable Description Measurement Expected
sign

DEPENDENT VARIABLES

Y Driving Dummy; 1 if they +

Factors for lead to
Youth unemployment; 0 if
Unemployment otherwise

EXPLANATORY VARIABLES

Demographic Factors

X1 Age The number of years of the Continuous: years -

respondents

X2 Household sex Biological difference between Dummy: 1 if a -

male and female male, 0 otherwise.

X3 Marital status When the respondents are Dummy: 1 single, 0 -

married or not otherwise

X4 Education Level of education attained by Categorical: 1 for -

level the respondents none, 0 otherwise, 1
for primary, 0
otherwise, 1
secondary, 0
otherwise, 1 for
college 0 otherwise,
1 for university, 0
otherwise.

X5 Working Amount of time spent in Categorical: 1 for -

experience job/labor Experienced 0 for
otherwise.

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 CHAPTER FOUR
4.0 PRESENTATION OF FINDINGS

4.1 Introduction
This chapter of the research includes presentation of summary of what has been obtained in
the primary data and second data that have been distributed to 100 different youth. The data
was basically concerning on the driving factors for youth unemployment. Under this chapter
there is the division of descriptive analysis and regression of proposed probit model for
discussion of the research findings.

4.2 General characteristic of study variable

4.2.1 Age of the respondents

According to Table 2 below which shows the age of respondents, as one of the important
parameters in assessing efficiency in work performance. The age of respondents who were
interviewed between was as follow:

Table Age of respondents

Age of respondents Number of respondents Percentage

15-24 52 52
25-35 30 30
35+ (and above) 18 18
Total 100 100

4.2.2 Gender of Respondents

In this study the gender of respondents was considered as a vital variable, that had a great role
in obtaining information, relating to the driving factors for youth’s unemployment in
Tanzania as follow.

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Table 3: Sexes of Respondents

Sex of respondents Number of respondents Percentage

Male 64 64
Female 36 36
Total 100 100

4.2.3 Marital Status

According to Table four below (4) revealed that,

Table 4: Marital Statuses of Respondent

Respondent category Number of respondents Percentage

Married 71 71
Single 29 29
Total 100 100

4.2.4 Educational Level

According to Table 5 below which shows educational level of respondents who were
interviewed as follow.

Table 5: Education Levels of Respondents

Level of education Number of respondents Percentage

Primary level 57 57
Secondary level 25 25
Tertiary or higher level 18 18
Total 100 100

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4.2.5 Working Experience
Also, in this study an individual’s working experience was considered as the vital factor
affecting the probability of youths acquiring an employment opportunity. Table six (6)
below shows:

Table 6: Working experience of the respondents

Variable Number of respondents Percentage

Experienced in working 47 47
Un-experienced in working 53 53
Total 100 100

4.3 Results of Economic Analysis

This study aimed at visualizing the driving factors for youths’ unemployment in mvumero
district, this study use Probity regression model to regress the results obtained from the
data collected since the nature of the variables was dummy taking values of 0 and 1. The
dependent variable was driving factors for youths’ unemployment, whereby for factors
contributing for it is 1 and factors reducing youth unemployment is 0.

The use of Probity regression of binary outcomes provided the likelihood odd to which the
independent variables age, sex, educational level, marital status, working experience and
information of job opportunities have on the dependent variable of driving factors to
youths’ unemployment.

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. probit youthunempolyment Age i.maritalstatus i.Workingexperience i.education

Iteration 0: log likelihood = -68.813881

Iteration 1: log likelihood = -15.963785
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -13.70876
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -13.645424
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -13.645226
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -13.645226

Probit regression Number of obs = 100

LR chi2(4) = 110.34
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -13.645226 Pseudo R2 = 0.8017

youthunempolyment Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]

Age .0422205 .0541163 0.78 0.435 -.0638456 .1482866

maritalstatus
single 1.802971 .6316068 2.85 0.004 .5650446 3.040898

Workingexperience
Experienced -2.920116 .6073482 -4.81 0.000 -4.110497 -1.729736

education
Ten -2.008518 .9080937 -2.21 0.027 -3.788349 -.2286869
_cons -.4218419 1.516224 -0.28 0.781 -3.393586 2.549902

21
 CHAPTER FIVE
5.0 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS

5.1 Introduction
This chapter presents discussion on the findings obtained and analyzed in Chapter four, of
which number of raised concerns are group number 2 P&D discussed based on findings of
other related studies. Discussions are made on the basis of specific objectives of the research
as well as themes of the subject.

5.2 Discussion on the assessment of Driving Factors to Youths’ Unemployment in

Mvumero District.

5.2.1 Marital status of Youths

At certain paribus, an increase single youth it will lead the probability of youth
unemployment to increase by 1.802971%.

The study shows that marital status is significant driving factor for youths’ unemployment
at significance level of 1%. An individual who is single increases the probability of being
unemployed.

5.2.2 Working Experience of the Youths

At certain paribus, a unit increases in the working experience decrease the probability of
youth unemployment by -2.920116%.

Most of the youths are fresh from studies having less experience in working. The study shows
that working experience is also significant variable in determining the driving factors to
youths’ unemployment. It’s showing that as working experience increases it lowers the
chances of one to be unemployed.

5.2.3 Education Level of Youths

At certain paribus, increases one year of education level decrease the probability of youth
unemployment by -2.008518%.

Education is generally good insurance against unemployment, even in difficult economic

times. Over the past 14 years, employment rates for men and women with tertiary education
have consistently been higher than for those without. The study has shown that higher or
tertiary education acquisition has a significant impact on youths’ unemployment rate at 5%
significant level.

22
 CHAPTER SIX
6.0 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

6.1 CONCLUSION
The aim of the study was to examine the factors which determine youth unemployment in
Tanzania and suggest way forward towards reduction of the problem. The study uses
Multinomial logistic regression model (MLM) to analyze the determinants of unemployment
in Tanzania. The dependent variable of the study was youth unemployment status which was
categorized into two categories unemployed and otherwise. The study used secondary data
provided by the National Bureau of statistics integrated labor force survey of 2006 which so
far is the most current survey. From the findings of the study the study concludes that gender,
geographical location, education, skills and marital status are all significant factors in
explaining the difference in youth employment status in Tanzania. The findings of the study
show that gender is significant determinant of unemployment and male youth stand a high
chance of being employed over being unemployed as compared to female youth.
Geographical location of the youth people was found be significant factor in which youth
people who are living in urban areas were found to five times more likely to be unemployed
over being employed. The results on youth education status show that both youth who have
not completed primary education and those who have completed primary education but did
not continue with further studies less likely to be unemployed over being employed due to
their engagement in informal employment activities. The results on education were supported
by the results on impact of skills on youth employment status where unskilled youth were
found to be about 2.3 less likely to unemployed over being employed. The study findings also
indicates that marital status was significant determinant factor where single and married
youth were found to have high likelihood of being unemployed over being employed as
compared to widowed, separated or divorced youth.

6.2 RECOMMENDATION
From the findings the study several recommendation are made, first, the government and
policy makers should review job market laws and regulation in order to promote smooth
transition of youth from education to job market. The findings of the study show that skilled
youth and those with more that primary school education are likely to be unemployed over
being employed. It is important for the government to create specific interventions especially
in the creation of more formal jobs and strengthening job market regulation relating to youth
people to ensure that all youth with education or skills realize their investments in education
and contribute to the country development.

23
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24
 DATA COLLECTED

Age Sex marital status Working experience Information Barrier youth

unemployment
17 1 1 0 0 1
18 0 1 0 0 1
21 1 0 1 1 1
24 0 0 1 1 1
25 1 1 1 1 0
17 1 1 0 0 1
22 0 0 0 0 0
23 1 0 1 1 0
25 1 1 0 0 1
23 0 1 0 0 1
22 1 1 1 1 1
19 0 0 0 0 1
17 0 1 0 0 1
24 1 0 1 1 0
22 1 1 0 0 1
23 0 0 0 0 1
25 1 0 1 1 0
21 1 1 0 0 1
17 1 1 0 0 1
21 0 0 0 0 1
19 1 1 0 0 1
25 0 0 1 1 0
23 1 0 0 0 1
24 0 1 0 0 1
25 1 0 1 0 0
22 0 1 0 0 1
21 1 1 0 0 1
16 1 1 0 0 1
19 0 1 1 1 0
22 0 0 0 0 1
24 0 1 0 0 0
25 1 0 1 1 0
24 1 1 1 1 0
23 0 1 0 0 1
25 1 0 1 1 0
25 0 1 0 0 1
24 0 1 0 0 1
23 1 0 0 0 1
22 1 0 0 0 1
22 0 1 0 0 1
21 1 1 0 0 1
22 0 1 0 0 1
23 1 0 1 0 0
24 0 0 1 1 0
25 1 0 1 1 0
21 0 1 0 1 1
19 1 1 0 0 1
20 0 0 0 0 1
20 1 0 0 0 1
20 1 1 1 1 0
20 0 1 0 0 1
26 0 0 1 1 0
28 0 1 0 0 1
30 1 0 0 1 1
31 1 0 1 0 0
32 1 0 1 1 0
34 0 0 1 0 0
35 1 0 1 1 0
30 1 0 0 1 1
27 0 1 0 0 1
29 0 1 0 0 1
28 1 0 1 1 0
26 0 1 0 0 1
27 0 0 0 0 1
29 1 1 1 1 0
28 0 1 0 0 1
27 1 1 1 1 0
29 1 1 0 0 1
30 0 1 0 0 1
32 1 0 1 1 0
31 1 1 0 0 1
34 0 0 1 1 0
33 1 1 0 0 1
35 0 0 1 1 0
34 1 1 0 0 1
35 0 0 1 1 0
31 1 1 0 0 1
30 1 0 1 1 0
34 0 0 1 1 0
35 1 0 1 1 0
32 1 0 1 1 0
36 0 0 1 1 0
37 1 1 0 0 1
38 0 1 1 1 0
40 1 0 1 1 0
41 0 0 1 1 0
39 1 0 1 0 0
37 1 1 0 0 1
36 1 0 0 0 1
36 0 0 1 1 0
39 1 0 1 1 0
40 1 0 1 1 0
42 0 0 1 1 0
37 0 1 1 1 1
39 1 0 1 1 0
27 0 1 0 0 1
31 0 0 0 0 0
37 1 0 1 1 0
31 1 0 1 1 0
18 0 1 0 0 1