Q4 2022

Vehicle Pricing Index

Q4 2022 Vehicle Pricing Index
1 Executive Summary 3
Macro Outlook
Vehicle Sales
Consumer Buying Trends
Market Analysis
Summary
2 Q4 2022 VPI Results 4
New Price Index
Used Price Index

3 Q4 2022 Used-to-New Ratio 5

Used-to-New Ratio

4 Q4 2022 Vehicle Asset Finance Results 6

Vehicle Asset Finance

5 Q4 2022 Top Manufacturers by Sales Volume - Passenger 7

Passenger Vehicles by Sales Volume

6 Q4 2022 Top Manufacturers by Sales Volume - Light Commercial 8

Light Commercial Vehicles by Sales Volume

7 Q4 2022 Body Types 8

8 Q4 2022 Age Band 8

 1 Executive Summary
The TransUnion SA Vehicle Pricing Index (VPI) for new and used vehicle pricing moved to
7% and 9.1% in Q4 2022 from 2% and 7% in Q4 2021, respectively. Used vehicle pricing has
increased for the 14th successive quarter. The index measures the relationship between
the increase in vehicle pricing for new and used vehicles from a basket of passenger
vehicles drawing from 15 top-volume manufacturers. Vehicle sales data collated from
across the industry was used to create the index.
Macro Outlook
The macroeconomic outlook shows negative GDP
growth from the prior quarter. Consumer confidence
remains below zero — as it has been throughout 2020
and 2021 — although this is the highest level post COVID.
Business confidence is relatively stable, with minor
month-on-month deterioration due to growth-damaging
Vehicle Sales
Total financial agreement volumes in passenger
vehicles increased by 1.5% from Q4 2021 to Q4 2022.
New passenger finance deals increased YoY by 13%
and used passenger vehicles decreased by 3.4%.
The used-to-new ratio declined YoY from 2.31 in
Q4 2021 to 1.98 Q4 in 2022.
Consumers have difficulty entering the used vehicle
market due lack of quality stock as new vehicle sales
have been slow over the past two years. Twenty
percent of used vehicle sales are under two years
old, a decrease due to reduced quality used
vehicle supply.
Consumer Buying Trends
The percentage of cars (new and used) financed below
R200,000 decreased to 20% in Q4 2022 compared to
27% in Q4 2021. Those between R200,000 to R300,000
and over R300,000 had YoY movement for Q4 2022
from under R200K into the over R300K brackets.
Consumers were looking for value in the used
vehicle market. As quality used vehicles became
scarce, new vehicles caused their average purchase
price to increase.
Market Analysis (Consumer Affordability)
The push for quality used vehicles and continuing rise
in used vehicle pricing demonstrates limited supply.
Sourcing inventory has been challenging, compounded
by consumer income failing to keep up with used
vehicle prices. There’s a trend of consumers
Summary
Overall, the global automotive industry had another
challenging quarter with inventory sourcing as new
vehicle sales were low and demand for mobility
increased. Although new vehicle sales had a good
quarter, ongoing loadshedding hindered consumer
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power cuts. Household debt-to-income ratio remains
high, adding significant pressure on consumers'
disposable incomes. The exchange rate has been
volatile against the dollar over the quarter,
compounding the difficulty of forecasting OEMs'
imported parts.
Demo models financed remained at 4% in Q4 2022,
which indicates consumers are opting for older vehicles
as quality supply diminishes and price increases exceed
wage growth, adding pressure on disposable income.
Possibly in response to fuel price hikes, people bought
more hybrid and electric models in 2022. The number
of purchasers grew 10x for hybrids and 6x for electric
— making up 2.5% of all new vehicle purchases.
According to Naamsa, there's been a YoY increase
of 15% for Q4 2022 in new passenger vehicle sales vs.
Q4 2021. The export market was consistent in 2022,
with annual growth of 37% for passenger vehicles
and 18% at an industry level.
Consumer buying patterns indicated more than 45% of
total new and used financed vehicles were hatchbacks
and 24% were SUVs. Although sedan sales in the new
vehicle market declined, they increased in the used
vehicle market due to supply constraints of other
popular body types. Almost half of vehicles financed
are completed by consumers aged between 26 and 40,
with a larger percentage falling financing used vehicles.
purchasing used vehicles that are older than those
they purchased previously. This will add to the average
age of vehicles on the road and increase opportunities
for servicing older vehicles.
and business confidence. Consumers are opting for
older vehicles as premium used vehicles become rare.
Disposable income is under severe strain with rising
food costs, interest rates and fuel costs — all pushing
consumers to seek alternative forms of mobility.
 2 Q4 2022 VPI Results

New Price Index (Figures 1.1 and 1.2)

New VPI

New vehicle price increases are below inflation,

7.0% 2.0% 6.8% although we expect a rise in the coming months.

Used Price Index (Figures 1.1 and 1.2)

Used VPI

9.1% 7.0% 9.0% Used vehicle prices have increased drastically

as quality supply becomes increasingly scarce.

7.4% 5.5% 7.0%

CPI

Q4 2022 Q4 2021 Q3 2022

Figure 1.1

Vehicle Pricing Index (VPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI)

10%

5%

0%

-5%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Index - New (Rate) Index - Used (Rate) CPI - Base = Jan 2000 (Rate)

Figure 1.2

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 3 Q4 2022 Used-to-New Ratio

Used-to-New Ratio (Figures 1.3 and 1.4)

The ratio indicates finance houses are financing 1.98 used vehicles for every 1 new vehicle.
This should remain consistent in the coming quarters.
New vehicles

40,816 36,128 39,586

Used vehicles

80,621 83,490 81,045

Ratio

1.98 2.31 2.05

Q4 2022 Q4 2021 Q3 2022

Figure 1.3

Used-to-New Ratio

3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Total

Figure 1.4

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 4 Q4 2022 Vehicle Asset Finance Results
Vehicle Asset Finance (Figure 1.5)
The over 300K band remains the highest since we started tracking in 2011
— a positive sign going into the next quarter.

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

<R200,000 R200,000-R300,000 >R300,000

Figure 1.5

20% 21% <R200,000

27%

44%
Q4 2022 50% Q4 2021 Q3 2022 50%
R200,000-R300,000

30% 29%
29%
>R300,000

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 5 Q4 2022 Top Manufacturers by Sales Volume – Passenger

Passenger Vehicles by Sales Volume

Manufacturers by Financed Sales Volumes (Figure 1.6)
Toyota and VW did well in both areas sharing the top two spots in new and used sales.
However, Hyundai and Suzuki had a great quarter alongside Toyota in new passenger vehicles financed.
25%

30%
23%
Used Vehicle Sales

23%
New Vehicle Sales

15%
11%

10%
9%

8%

6%
Volkswagen

Toyota

Hyundai

Kia

Renault

Toyota

Volkswagen

Suzuki

Hyundai

Ford
44%

41%

30%
Used LCV Sales

New LCV Sales

23%

20%

14%
6%

5%
5%

4%
Toyota

Ford

Nissan

Volkswagen

Toyota

Nissan

Ford

GWM

Volkswagen
Isuzu

Figure 1.6

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 6 2022 Q4 Top Manufacturers by Sales Volume — Light Commercial
Light Commercial Vehicles by Sales Volumes
Manufacturers by Financed Sales Volumes (Figure 1.7)
Toyota had an exceptional quarter in the new LCV finance market, capturing 41%
followed by Nissan with 30%.
1%
New Vehicle Sales

18% Hatchback

SUV
58%
22% Sedan

Cross-over

Figure 1.7

7 2022 Q4 Body Type

Body Type by Financed Sales Volumes (Figure 1.8)
Hatchbacks and SUVs made up more than 70% of all vehicles financed in Q4 2022.
2% 1% 2%
2%
Hatchback
Used Vehicle Sales

SUV

23% Sedan
45% Coupe

Multi-purpose
25% Cross-over

Other

Figure 1.8

8 2022 Q4 Age band

Age Band by Financed Sales Volumes (Figure 1.9)
Half of used vehicles financed in Q4 2022 were purchased by consumers aged between 26 and 40.
Used Vehicle Sales
New Vehicle Sales

50%
38%

38%

37%
20%

10%
4%

3%

Under 25 26-40 41-55 Over 55 Under 25 26-40 41-55 Over 55

Figure 1.9

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Q4 2022 Vehicle Pricing Index
Contact us
TransUnion SA Vehicle Pricing Index queries can be directed to:

Philippa Hudson-Bennett

SA_MkrtComms@transunion.com

+ 27 11 214 6000

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+ 27 11 214 6000

Sources: Figure 1.1 and 1.2 - Industry Sales Data, Figure 1.3 to 1.11 - New Financed Vehicle Sales Data

TransUnion Auto Information Solutions (TransUnion) obtains information for its analyses from sources, which it considers reliable, but TransUnion
does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of its analyses or any information contained therein. TransUnion makes no warranties, expressed
or implied, as to the results obtained by any person or entity from use of its information and analyses, and makes no warranties or merchantability
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