Brazil Industry Report - Automotive February - 2023

Automotive
Monthly Report
February / 2023
Analyst
Isabela Tavares
itavares@tendencias.com.br
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Contents
1. Highlights
2. Summary
3. Automotive production and sales
4. Quarterly projections | Production and Sales by segments
5. Domestic production and sales of light vehicles
6. Domestic production and sales of trucks
7. Total vehicle exports
8. Total vehicle imports
9. Prices of new vehicles
10. Average real income
11. Vehicle financing for individuals: main variables
12. Consumer Confidence

3
Highlights
The automotive sector's projections for 2023 have been revised downwards. Apart from the disappointing
production and sales figures in January, the revision was prompted by the increasingly bleak macroeconomic outlook,
especially the projected rise in inflation and the Selic rate throughout the year. The Selic rate is now expected to
reach 13.0% by the end of 2023, up from the previous projection of 12.0%, with a slight decrease only in the fourth
quarter.
• Total vehicle production: In January, total production fell by 13.9% in the seasonally adjusted margin, after rising
in Dec/22. The result was due to the strong drop in heavy vehicles (-69.7%) and, to a lesser extent, the 8.8% drop
in light vehicle production.
• Total vehicle sales: In January, sales fell by 8.2% in the seasonally adjusted margin, after two months of growth
at the end of last year. Weakening sales were driven by light vehicles, while truck sales grew again in the month.

4
Summary
2022 2023*
Total vehicle production 5.4% 2.2%
Production of cars and light commercial vehicles 5.1% 3.4%
Production of trucks 2.0% -11.1%
Total vehicle sales -0.7% 4.7%
Sales of cars and light commercial vehicles -0.8% 5.5%
Sales of trucks -1.7% -6.1%
Total vehicle exports 27.8% -3.9%
Total vehicle imports 7.8% 3.5%
Projection. The arrows associated with the indexes indicate the direction of the projection revision in relation to the last report: raised,
maintained or reduced.
¹ Rates in % p.a. Annual data referring to the end of the period.
² Rates in % of the outstanding balance. Annual data refer to the end of the period.
³ Variation % related to the end of the period.

5
Automotive production and sales
In January, production fell by 13.9% in the seasonally adjusted margin, after an increase of 3.4% in December, and grew by 5.0% against January 2022.
Domestic sales in the month declined by 8.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis, following two consecutive months of growth. However, on an annual
basis, sales increased by 11.9%.
Projections for 2023 have been reduced. The expectation for sales went from 9.9% to 4.7% and, for production, from 6.0% to 2.2%. The significant
revisions took into account the heightened uncertainties, the possibility of Selic rates remaining at 13.75% for an extended period, and an anticipated rise in
inflation. This scenario should keep the credit market restrictive in the year, with high interest rates and lower volume of concessions, which makes it difficult to
resume sales. In addition, rising inflation decreases disposable income for consumption. As for the international scenario, exports are expected to decelerate
in the coming months.
Moderate growth is expected for automotive production in the 2S23, in line with the expectation of gradual growth in light vehicle sales. The
projected growth in sales is linked to the anticipated improvement in total income, including real gains in labor income and a potential cooling of vehicle prices.
Furthermore, the supply of inputs is expected to improve as a result of the reopening of the Chinese economy and the decline in prices of industrial goods,
which should aid in the partial restoration of stocks.
VEHICLE PRODUCTION – SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES VEHICLE SALES – SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES
400
400,000
350
350,000
300
300,000
250
250,000
200
200,000
150
150,000
100
100,000
50
50,000
0
0
jan-12
jan-13
jan-14
jan-15
jan-16
jan-17
jan-18
jan-19
jan-20
jan-21
jan-22
jan-23
jan-12
jan-13
jan-14
jan-15
jan-16
jan-17
jan-18
jan-19
jan-20
jan-21
jan-22
jan-23
Source: Anfavea and Fenabrave. Rates in thousands of units. Data performed until Jan/23. Projections by Tendências
6
Quarterly projections | Production and Sales by segments
Vehicle production and sales 2021 2022 2023 1T22 2T22 3T22 4T22 1T23 2T23 3T23 4T23
Total Production 2,248.3 2,369.8 2,421.2 496.1 595.6 664.7 613.4 549.4 609.2 638.6 624.1
YoY Change 11.6% 5.4% 2.2% -17.0% 8.0% 32.0% 3.0% 10.7% 2.3% -3.9% 1.7%
Passenger Car and LCVs 2,070.6 2,176.0 2,249.0 456.1 550.5 609.3 560.1 512.7 563.5 592.3 580.6
YoY Change 8.7% 5.1% 3.4% -18.5% 9.1% 33.7% 1.7% 12.4% 2.3% -2.8% 3.7%
Trucks 158.8 162.0 144.1 34.4 37.4 44.9 45.3 30.0 37.5 38.8 37.7
YoY Change 74.6% 2.0% -11.1% 3.9% -10.2% 3.0% 11.9% -12.8% 0.4% -13.5% -16.8%
Buses 18.9 31.8 28.1 5.7 7.6 10.5 8.0 6.7 8.2 7.5 5.7
YoY Change 2.6% 68.3% -11.4% 10.2% 48.2% 147.4% 84.3% 17.4% 8.1% -28.9% -27.9%
Total Sales 2,118.9 2,098.9 2,347.4 405.6 512.3 584.5 596.4 465.4 533.0 579.6 625.8
YoY Change 3.0% -0.9% 11.8% -23.1% -6.2% 16.2% 10.0% 14.8% 4.0% -0.8% 4.0%
Passenger Car and LCVs 1,974.4 1,953.5 2,207.3 374.5 476.7 543.8 558.4 430.2 500.2 544.2 590.2
YoY Change 1.2% -1.1% 13.0% -24.8% -6.3% 17.4% 10.7% 14.8% 4.9% 0.1% 4.9%
Trucks 126.8 124.0 119.1 26.8 30.6 34.7 31.9 29.1 27.7 29.9 30.3
YoY Change 42.2% -2.2% -3.9% 5.9% -5.3% -2.7% -5.0% 8.7% -9.4% -13.8% -7.0%
Buses 17.7 21.4 21.0 4.3 5.0 6.0 6.0 6.2 5.1 5.4 5.3
YoY Change -2.7% 20.9% -2.2% 1.7% -0.3% 39.5% 47.4% 43.7% 1.0% -10.4% -20.1%
Source: Anfavea and Fenabrave. Data referring to the sum of the period. Projections by Tendências
7
Domestic production and sales of light vehicles
In January, light vehicle production fell by 8.8% in the seasonally adjusted margin, after an increase of 3.1% in December. In the annual variation,
production rose by 9.8%. The decline in domestic sales of this vehicle category, which fell 9.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis, can be attributed to
the still restrictive credit and high vehicle prices. This trend has significantly contributed to the weakening of production.
In terms of light vehicle sales, the decline was widespread across both direct sales (without intermediation with dealerships) and retail sales (with
dealerships), although direct sales experienced a more significant reduction of 15.3% following stronger results at the end of last year. In contrast,
retail sales decreased by 1.9% in January.
For 2023, projections have been reduced from +11.0% to +5.5% for sales, and from +7.3% to +3.4% for production. The light vehicle segment is
anticipated to maintain its low momentum in the coming months due to rising economic and political uncertainties, pressures on the credit market from Selic
rates, and a worsening of household purchasing power. In the second half of the year, slight growth in sales is still expected, which could boost
production, as a result of the expanding labor market and a potential reduction of vehicle prices.
PRODUCTION AND SALES OF LIGHT VEHICLES –

PRODUCTION OF LIGHT VEHICLES – IN SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SALES OF LIGHT VEHICLES – IN SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA ANNUAL VAR.
DATA
350 400 Year Production Sales

350 2014 -14.6% -6.9%
300
300 2015 -21.7% -25.6%
250
250 2016 -10.1% -19.8%
200 2017 24.8% 9.4%
200
150 150 2018 4.9% 13.7%
100 100 2019 2.1% 7.6%
50 50 2020 -32.1% -26.6%
0 2021 8.7% 1.2%
0
jan-12
jan-13
jan-14
jan-15
jan-16
jan-17
jan-18
jan-19
jan-20
jan-21
jan-22
jan-23
jan-13
jan-14
jan-15
jan-16
jan-17
jan-18
jan-20
jan-22
jan-12
jan-19
jan-21
jan-23
2022 5.1% -0.8%

2023 3.4% 5.5%
Source: Anfavea and Fenabrave. Rates in thousands of units. Data up to Dec/22. Projections by Tendências
8
Domestic production and sales of trucks
Truck production fell by 69.6% in the seasonally adjusted margin and 57.2% in the annual variation, resulting in the worst January since 2012. The
Proconve P8 came into force in January this year and decreased the volumes produced, as it did on Jan/12 due to the P7. As the obligation to sell vehicles in
compliance with this new legislation only comes into effect in March, sales increased by 8.2% in January on a seasonally adjusted basis.
For 2023, projections for sales and production have been reduced from -5.0% to -6.1% and from -8.3% to -11.1%, respectively. The revision was
prompted by the deteriorating prospects for the performance of the construction and retail trade sectors, which have been adversely affected by higher Selic
rates and mounting inflationary pressures.
In 2H23, some stability in the margin is estimated for truck production. The estimate takes into account the partial resumption of truck sales and: (i) the
gradual recovery of the construction and retail trade sectors, given the potential expansion of the total income and a potential cooling of goods prices, and (ii)
the projected growth of agricultural production in 2023, resulting from the full recovery of soybean production and the strong capitalization of producers in
other crops.
TRUCK PRODUCTION AND SALES -- ANNUAL

PRODUCTION OF TRUCKS – IN SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA SALES OF TRUCKS – IN SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA VAR.
25 Year Production Sales

18
2015 -47.1% -47.7%
16
20 14
2016 -18.3% -29.9%
12 2017 37.3% 3.5%
15 2018 27.1% 46.8%
10
8 2019 7.5% 33.1%
10
6 2020 -19.9% -12.3%
4 2021 74.6% 42.2%
5
2
2022 2.0% -1.7%
0
0 2023 -11.1% -6.1%
jan-12
jan-15
jan-16
jan-19
jan-20
jan-21
jan-23
jan-13
jan-14
jan-17
jan-18
jan-22
jan-12
jan-13
jan-14
jan-15
jan-16
jan-17
jan-18
jan-19
jan-20
jan-21
jan-22
jan-23
Source: Anfavea and Fenabrave. Rates in thousands of units. Data performed until Jan/23. Projections by Tendências
9
Total vehicle exports
In January, total exports grew by 38.1% in the seasonally adjusted margin, after falling in the previous two months. In the annual variation, exports
grew by 19.3%. In terms of production share, total exports represented 21.6% of the total produced in January, being the highest level since
Jun/22.
Across the segments, the advance was driven by light vehicles, which rose 42.7% in the seasonally adjusted margin, also after falling in the previous
two months. For trucks, volumes were 17.8% below Dec/22, the third consecutive reduction in the seasonally adjusted margin.
For 2023, the projection has been slightly reduced from -3.6% to -3.9%, taking into account the greater uncertainty of the scenario. In the short
term, exports should show a decelerating trajectory, taking into account the slowdown in the economies that demand Brazilian vehicles.
The tightening in financial conditions across the globe is expected to impose lower economic growth in partner countries in the automotive
sector, limiting the volume of exports.
VEHICLE PRODUCTION – VOLUME IN THOUSANDS OF UNITS AND ANNUAL VAR.
Vehicle Exports 2021 2022 2023 Q122 Q222 Q322 Q422 Q123 Q223 Q323 Q423
Vehicle Exports 376.4 480.9 462.3 108.1 138.2 117.2 117.4 112.7 124.5 112.7 112.5
Total Exports 16.0% 27.8% -3.9% 12.8% 32.4% 52.6% 18.1% 4.3% -9.9% -3.9% -4.2%
YoY Change 349.5 450.3 433.4 102.4 130.6 108.6 108.8 106.8 117.0 104.9 104.7
Passenger Cars and LCVs 13.8% 28.9% -3.8% 14.2% 33.4% 55.2% 18.2% 4.3% -10.4% -3.4% -3.7%
YoY Change 22.7 25.3 23.5 4.7 6.5 6.8 7.3 4.7 6.2 6.5 6.1
Trucks 71.4% 11.3% -6.8% -11.3% 18.3% 15.4% 20.5% 1.4% -3.8% -5.0% -16.5%
YoY Change 4.2 5.3 5.4 1.0 1.2 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.7
Buses 2.8% 25.9% 1.1% 14.8% 12.6% 88.9% -1.0% 15.5% 11.1% -28.6% 21.6%
Source: Anfavea. Data referring to the sum of the period. Projections by Tendências
10
Total vehicle imports
In January, imports grew by 12.8% in the annual variation. In terms of share, imports accounted for 14.3% of domestic sales. Across the segments,
there was a growth of 12.4% for light vehicles and 27.2% for trucks in the annual variation, with shares reaching 15.2% in light vehicles and 5.7%
in trucks.
The expectation for 2023 anticipates a deceleration in imported vehicle sales, reflecting the restrictive macroeconomic scenario for the consumption of
durable goods, characterized by high-interest rates, high levels of indebtedness, and economic and political uncertainties, which increase the risk of short-
term volatility in the exchange rate.
VEHICLE PRODUCTION – VOLUME IN THOUSANDS OF UNITS AND ANNUAL VAR.
Vehicle Imports 2021 2022 2023 Q122 Q222 Q322 Q422 Q123 Q223 Q323 Q423
Total Imports 253.8 273.5 283.0 51.1 68.6 72.0 81.8 60.0 67.6 72.9 78.8
YoY Change 19.9% 7.8% 3.5% 8.1% 12.5% 3.3% 7.9% 17.4% -1.4% 1.2% -3.7%
Passenger Cars and LCVs 247.9 267.0 277.9 49.9 67.3 70.0 79.8 58.9 66.5 71.7 77.6
YoY Change 19.4% 7.7% 4.1% 8.8% 13.1% 3.5% 6.5% 18.0% -1.2% 2.3% -2.8%
Trucks 5.9 6.5 5.1 1.2 1.3 2.0 2.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2
YoY Change 48.8% 11.2% -21.3% -15.0% -12.8% -2.7% 121.0% -6.9% -11.3% -38.4% -39.5%
Source: Anfavea. Data referring to the sum of the period. Projections by Tendências
11
Prices of new vehicles

In January, motor vehicle prices rose 0.3% at the margin in real terms (+0.8% in nominal terms), after a decrease of 0.4% in December. In the last
twelve months, the automotive prices of new vehicles reached 0.9%. As of January 2022, prices had increased by 6.2% over the previous 12 months.
Price fluctuations at the margin continue to demonstrate volatility, consistent with the current environment of uncertainty and rising prices for certain
metallic commodities, driven by the reopening of the Chinese economy following the end of its zero-COVID policy. This dynamic ends up harming the
recovery of sales in early 2023.
In any case, the outlook for the year still anticipates a cooling of prices, given the reduced input costs for the automotive industry, which is
expected to result from the global economic slowdown. The cooling of prices should benefit sales in the second half, but levels should remain high in relation
to the pre-pandemic, as well as input prices.
VEHICLE PRICES VEHICLE PRICES – ACCUMULATED IN 12-MONTH PERIOD

160 100
Prices Real terms Nominal terms
140 90 2021 5.5% 16.2%
120
80 Q122 6.2% 18.2%
100
Q222 5.5% 18.0%
70
80 Q322 6.3% 13.9%
60
60 2022 2.3% 8.2%
40 50
Q123 1.7% 6.4%
20 40 Q223 0.9% 5.1%
jan-11
jan-13
jan-14
jan-16
jan-18
jan-19
jan-20
jan-21
jan-23
jan-10
jan-12
jan-15
jan-17
jan-22
Q323 -1.1% 5.0%

Nominal Real (eixo dir.)
2023 -0.6% 5.2%
Source: IPCA-IBGE. Data performed until Jan/23. Projections by Tendências

12
Average real income

In November, the average income index rose by 0.9% in the seasonally adjusted margin and 13.0% in the annual variation. The average income
continued its upward trend in the same month with a 1.3% increase in the seasonally adjusted margin and a 7.2% rise in the annual variation, while
occupation suffered losses, declining by 0.2% in the seasonally adjusted margin and 5.0% YoY.
After robust growth in 2022, especially in the 1st semester, the occupation has decelerated, reflecting the lower growth in economic activity and heightened
uncertainties, which hence limits new hires. For 2023, the scenario is of low economic growth and uncertainties in the political field, which limit the
increase in job vacancies.
Earnings, on the other hand, are expected to grow again YoY in 2023. The increase in the minimum wage should raise the bargaining power of workers
in wage negotiations and boost income growth this year, thereby increasing the total income in the country.
AVERAGE REAL INCOME – IN SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA REAL INCOME AND COMPONENTS – ANNUAL VAR.
Recurrent Mean
300
Year Overall Recurrent Employment
280
Income Income
260 3.7% 2.1% 1.3%
2014
240 2015 -1.2% -1.3% 0.0%
220 2016 -3.4% -2.0% -2.0%
200 2017 2.0% 1.7% 0.3%
2018 3.3% 1.5% 1.7%
180
2019 2.7% 0.4% 2.2%
160
2020 -3.7% 4.4% -7.7%
140 2021 -2.4% -7.0% 5.0%
120 2022 7.2% -0.9% 7.7%
jan-09
jan-12
jan-13
jan-14
jan-15
jan-16
jan-17
jan-21
jan-22
jan-23
jan-10
jan-11
jan-18
jan-19
jan-20
2023 6.8% 4.8% 1.9%
Source: PNAD-IBGE. Rates in BRL billion. Data deflated by the IPCA (last month = 100). Data up to Nov/22. Projections by Tendências
13
Vehicle financing for individuals: main variables
The vehicle credit market ended 2022 at restrictive levels, in view of high-interest rates, worsening defaults and a low volume of new concessions. The
projections for 2023 have been revised to reflect the deteriorating macroeconomic scenario. Selic is expected to remain at 13.75% until 3Q23 and
keep interest and default rates high for longer, which leads to a slowdown in concessions.
In Dec/22, concessions for the acquisition of vehicles increased by 0.9% in the seasonally adjusted margin, after falling 4.2% in Nov/22. As a
result, concessions ended 2022 down 11.3% in real terms.
For interest rates, the levels reached 28.7% p.a. in Dec/22, being 1.9 p.p. above Dec/21. Default rate ended the year at 5.4%, an increase of 1.6 p.p.
compared to Dec/21 and the highest December result since 2012. Finally, the payment terms for vehicle concessions reached 46.6 months in Dec/22,
after 47.4 months in Dec/21.
For 2023, the projection of concessions for the acquisition of vehicles was reduced from +4.9% to +1.7%, in line with the less attractive levels of
financial conditions, in addition to additional pressures on the family budget (higher inflation), which hamper the consumption of durable goods.
VEHICLE FINANCING OPERATIONS FOR INDIVIDUALS: MAIN VARIABLES
Auto Loans 2021 2022 2023 Q122 Q222 Q322 Q422 Q123 Q223 Q323 Q423
Supply (deflated)¹ -0.5% 1.2% 3.5% -1.9% -3.3% 0.2% 1.2% 2.7% 4.0% 3.5% 3.5%
Extensions (deflated)² 8.1% -11.3% 1.7% -9.3% -13.1% -15.5% -6.7% -4.9% -0.7% 4.6% 7.2%
Interest rate (% p.a.)³ 26.79 28.7 27.7 27.1 27.4 27.1 28.7 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.7
Payment terms (months)³ 47.36 46.6 45.8 47.1 46.7 47.1 46.6 46.4 46.2 46.0 45.8
Delinquency (% of supply)³ 3.76 5.39 4.92 4.25 4.79 5.18 5.39 5.37 5.22 5.02 4.92
¹ Annual variation refers to the end of the period.

² Annual variation refers to the sum of the period.
³ Data refer to the end of the period.
Source: Central Bank. Data up to Dec/22. Projections by Tendências

14
Consumer Confidence
The Consumer Confidence Index (ICC-FGV) fell 2.2 points in January to 85.8 points in the seasonally adjusted series. The January result partially offsets
the 2.7-point increase registered in Dec/22.
The beginning of the year, which was marked by uncertainties in the political and economic field, high-interest rates and high household
indebtedness still prevents greater optimism from consumers. In addition, the very concern with the evolution of the inflationary framework and fiscal
situation of the country limits the improvement of the indicator. The segment that primarily contributed to the decline in the ICC was the Expectations
Index (EI), which saw a 3.6-point drop in January in the seasonally adjusted series, following a 4.3-point increase in December. The Current Situation
Index (ISA) remained relatively stable for the second consecutive month, with a slight increase of 0.2 points compared to 0.1 points in December.
However, in January, it is noteworthy that consumer confidence declined in higher income brackets compared to lower brackets, with a decline in
the seasonally adjusted margin for income groups above BRL 4,800.
For 2023, the expectation is for a still challenging year for consumer confidence, especially in the 1st half, given the still high uncertainties of the
economic scenario. In any case, the increase in total income should drive a moderate improvement in confidence levels.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (ICC) AND COMPONENTS – IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
130 120.0 ANNUAL VARIATION IN POINTS 15 .0 0
120
10 .0 0
2.75
100.0
1.54
-5.70
10.16
110
5.88
-1.61
-8.93
5.00
-4.34
2.73
100
3.98
80.0
9.73
4.24
-11.45
0.00
90
-1.75
3.29
2.04
-20.83
80 60.0 -5.00
70 -10 .0 0
40.0
60
-15 .0 0
50
20.0
-20 .0 0
40
jan-09
jan-11
jan-12
jan-13
jan-15
jan-16
jan-17
jan-19
jan-20
jan-23
jan-10
jan-14
jan-18
jan-21
jan-22
0.0 -25 .0 0
2007
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2019
2020
2022
2023
2008
2011
2018
2021
ISA IE ICC
Source: FGV. Rates in index number. Data performed until Jan/23. Projections by Tendências
Phone: +55 11 3052 3311


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Total vehicle production 5.4% 2.2%

Production of cars and light commercial vehicles 5.1% 3.4%

Production of trucks 2.0% -11.1%

Total vehicle sales -0.7% 4.7%

Sales of cars and light commercial vehicles -0.8% 5.5%

Sales of trucks -1.7% -6.1%

Total vehicle exports 27.8% -3.9%

Total vehicle imports 7.8% 3.5%

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Quarterly projections | Production and Sales by segments

PRODUCTION AND SALES OF LIGHT VEHICLES –

350 400 Year Production Sales

2022 5.1% -0.8%

TRUCK PRODUCTION AND SALES -- ANNUAL

25 Year Production Sales

VEHICLE PRODUCTION – VOLUME IN THOUSANDS OF UNITS AND ANNUAL VAR.

Total vehicle imports

VEHICLE PRODUCTION – VOLUME IN THOUSANDS OF UNITS AND ANNUAL VAR.

Prices of new vehicles

VEHICLE PRICES VEHICLE PRICES – ACCUMULATED IN 12-MONTH PERIOD

Q323 -1.1% 5.0%

Source: IPCA-IBGE. Data performed until Jan/23. Projections by Tendências

Average real income

2023 6.8% 4.8% 1.9%

VEHICLE FINANCING OPERATIONS FOR INDIVIDUALS: MAIN VARIABLES

¹ Annual variation refers to the end of the period.

Source: Central Bank. Data up to Dec/22. Projections by Tendências

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (ICC) AND COMPONENTS – IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

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