Prepared by 16 May 2023

Muhammad Ammar
DAWN Tuesday

Opinion Translation

Roots of the rage

Arifa Noor
‫گ‬
FOR the world, war is another means to conduct ‫ایسسترکےناکوادح‬،‫نکیلپااتسکنںیم‬،‫ نجایسسترکےناکایتاورذرہعیےہ‬،‫داینےکےئل‬
politics, but in Pakistan, the law is the only means to
conduct politics. After a brief detour — via the streets ‫ڑسوکںےکذرےعیایترصتخمرکچ—ےکدعب—ااسیاتگلےہہکمہرمکہدعال‬.‫ذرہعیاقوننےہ‬
— it seems we are back to the courtrooms where
.‫ںیمواسپآےئںیہاہجںہرالھکڑیدورسےےکالخفڑھجراہےہ‬
every player is jostling against the other.

However, the outcome will be determined by power.

The Punjab polls, cases against Imran Khan and the ‫ایراناخنےکالخف‬،‫اجنپبےکااختنپنات‬.‫ہجیتناکنیعتاطقےکذرہعیایکاجےئاگ‬،‫پامہ‬
‫یمپ‬
new legal battles to deal with those who went on a ‫دقمامتاور‘رت نتج’رپاجےنواولںےسےنٹمنےکےئلیئناقونینڑلاایئں ن‬
‫سدعاوتلںںیمںیلیھک‬
‘rampage’ will all play out in the courts.
.‫یگ‬
But even in the midst of these battles where the final
outcome is far from clear, all I have to offer are a few
musings on the skirmishes so far. ‫ےھجمایھبیڑھجوپںںیم‬،‫نکیلاہیںیہکانڑلاویئںےکچیباہجںیمتحہجیتنواحضںیہنےہ‬
‫گ‬
Shape of change to come: The status quo, as it has .‫رکپےہ‬
‫ھچکومیقیسشیپ ا‬
played out for over a decade, is becoming harder to
sustain. This does not mean we are headed towards a
major turning point. While there are sceptics who ‫ نیرقراررانھک‬،‫اسیجہکاسےنایتداہیئےسزپادہرعہصےسالیھکےہ‬،‫ومجد‬:‫آےنوایلدبتیلییکلکش‬
think little will change, others are certain everything
‫ارگہچ‬.‫اساکبلطمہیںیہنےہہکمہایتامہومڑیکرطفاجرےہںیہ‬.‫لکشمیروہپااجراہےہ‬
is about to collapse.
‫دورسوںوکنیقیےہہک ن‬،‫واہںوکشکواہبشتںیہوجےتھجمسںیہہکتہبمکدبتیلیآےئیگ‬
‫سھچک‬

Both may be off the mark. Chances are there will be .‫رگےنیہواالےہ‬
some kind of a reset where change and continuity will
go hand in hand. One hopes this ‘change’ allows for
some shift in the balance of power which is tilted
‫گ‬ ‫گش‬
‫ااکمپاتہیںیہہکیسکمسقیکری یت‬.‫دوونںنانےسدوروہتکسںیہ‬
heavily towards the establishment at the moment (or
‫سوہیگاہجںدبتیلیاور‬
has done so especially since 2008). But this will
signal a recalibration rather than the end of the ‫یسکوکادیمےہہکہی‘دبتیلی’اطقےکوتازنںیمھچکدبتیلییک‬.‫لسلستاہھتںیمآاجےئاگ‬
‫ی‬
infamous civil-military fault line which shapes ‫سٹی ش گ ی‬
Pakistani politics. )2008‫ٹیکرطفتہبزپادہاکھجوہاےہ(پااخصوطررپ‬ ‫ااجزتداتیےہوجاسوقا تتٹنلشمن ت‬
‫ی‬ ‫گ‬
‫نکیلہیدبپامزامہنوسلرٹلمیافلالنئےکااتتخمےکاجبےئدو نپارہمیسقت‬.‫ےکدعبےسااسیایکےہ‬
At the same time, change is not necessarily linear. ‫ش‬
The empire can strike back and try to prolong the .‫اکاشارہدےاگوجپااتسکینایسستیکلیکشترکپاےہ‬
status quo. Its present instability is due to this and
sustaining the status quo for long will prove difficult.
‫ی‬
‫تنطلسےھچیپہیتکسےہاورومجدوک‬.‫دبتیلیالزیموطررپریکلیںیہنوہیتےہ‬،‫ایتیہوقںیم‬
Divisions within: Why is this status quo under threat?
Demography, the economy, international changes ‫اسیکوموجدہدعمااکحتسماسیکوہجےسےہاوروطلیرعےص‬.‫وطلدےنییکوکششرکیتکسےہ‬
‫ش‬
have all played a role, as has over a decade of .‫یومجدوک نیرقراررانھکلکشمپ نابوہاگ‬

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Prepared by 16 May 2023
Muhammad Ammar
DAWN Tuesday

Opinion Translation

multiple television channel discussions about the

importance of democracy and elections. This has led ‫شگگ‬
to a split within the larger establishment — however ‫نیباالوقایمدبتویلیںےن ن‬،‫تشیعم‬،‫ہیومجدرطخےںیمویکںےہ?ڈومیرگایف‬:‫ادنرڈو ری ری‬
‫ساک‬
‫ش گ‬
‫اسیجہکایتداہیئےسزپادہرعےصےسدعتمدیلیٹو رین تچتیٹلیکوہمجربتاور‬،‫رکداراداایکےہ‬
one may want to describe it.
‫ی‬
‫ی سٹی ش گ ی‬
The earlier consensus of the privileged seems to be ‫ٹ—ںیم‬ ‫اسیکوہجےس نیرےا تتٹنلشمن ت‬.‫ااختنپناتیکاتیمہےکپنارےںیمابتدہلایخلایکایگےہ‬
breaking down. This larger establishment can be said ‫گ‬
to be Punjabi-dominated or one in which traditional .‫رکپاچاتہےہ‬
‫میسقتوہیئگےہپامہوکیئیھباسیکواضح ا‬
players such as the military, judiciary and the elite
were willing to collaborate; the judiciary’s aversion to ‫ی‬ ‫گ‬
‫ی سٹی ش گ ی‬
providing cover to a delay in elections is a case in ‫اہکاجاتکسےہہکاس نیرےا تتٹنلشمن ت‬.‫رمااعتپاہتفاقراداکےلہپاافتقراےئوٹٹراہےہ‬
‫ٹںیماجنپیب‬
point, as is the reluctance of most commentators to
‫دعہیلاورارشاہیفےسیجروایتیالھکڑیاعتون‬،‫ارثکیتیپاایتااسیصخشاہکاجاتکسےہسجںیموفیج‬
call for martial law which was acceptable in the
1990s. ،‫رکےنوکایترےھت;ااختنپناتںیمپاریخاکااحہطرکےنےکےئلدعہیلیکرفنتایتامہاعمہلمےہ‬
‫یکداہیئںیم ن‬1990‫اسیجہکزپادہیررصبمنییکامرلشالءاکاطمہبلرکےنےسرگ گریاںےہوج‬
‫اقب‬
Another factor adding to the breakdown of the earlier
consensus is because a core constituency, which .‫وبقلاھت‬
provided legitimacy to the military and its political
role, has shifted its support to the PTI — hence the
growing criticism of the former in the past one year.
‫اسےسلبقاافتقراےئےکوٹےنٹںیمااضہفرکےنواالایتاوررصنعاسےئلےہہکایتاینبدی‬
‫گ‬
Undoubtedly, there are moments when this does ‫اینپامحبتوکیپیٹآیئ ںیم‬,‫سجےنوفجوکاقونینتیثیحاوراسےکایسیسرکداروکقرامہایک‬،‫ہقلح‬
appear to be a fight for Punjab; a fight which began ‫ی‬ ‫گ‬
with Nawaz Sharif and is now being led by Imran .‫لاےلھچپایتاسلںیماسقبیک نیریتھوہیئدیقنت‬
‫لقتنمرکدپاےہ ذ‬
Khan. And while sceptics pooh-pooh it for this very
reason, commentators such as Umair Javed argue this
can have broader implications. ‫اےسیاحملتںیہ ن ن‬،‫البہبش‬
‫حہیاجنپبیکڑلایئداھکیئدےتیںیہ۔ایتایسیڑلایئوجونازرشفیےک‬
‫اور ن ن‬.‫اسھترشوعوہیئیھتاوراباسیکایقدتایراناخنرکرےہںیہ‬
‫حہکوکشکواہبشت‬
Yet, all the factors mentioned earlier would not have
been so impactful or so significant had it not been for ‫ریمعاجویذےسیجرصبمنیاکومفقےہہکاسےسوعیسیر‬،‫ےناسوہجےساےسوپہوپہرکدپا‬
the growing economic crisis. After all, one reason for
the primacy of the military establishment has been its .‫رمضماتوہتکسںیہ‬
ability to negotiate with the rest of the world and
ensure generous cash lines. But if these easy funds are ‫ی‬ ‫ش‬
no longer available and the establishment is ‫ایادنازپااےنتامہںیہنوہےتارگہی نیرےتھوہےئاعمیش‬ ‫ےلہپذرکرکدہامتموعالماےنت ر‬،‫رھپیھب‬
‫ی‬
‫گ‬ ‫سٹی ش گ ی‬
‫وفیجا تتٹنلشمن ت‬،‫رہباحل‬.‫رحباناکہنوہپا‬
increasingly being seen as a leading factor
‫ٹیکاوتلٹتتینتٹتیکایتوہجپنایقداینےکاسھتپنات ت‬
‫چ‬
contributing to the instability, rather than ‘stability’, ‫گ‬
the fissures might grow. ‫نکیلارگہیآاسنڈنفزابدایتسب‬.‫رکےناورقراخدقنالونئںوکینیقیانبےنیکالصچتریہےہ‬
‫ی‬
‫سٹی ش گ ی‬
Without the dollars to distribute, there is less space to ‫ٹوک‘ااکحتسم’ےکاجبےئدعمااکحتسمںیمامہرکدارادارکےنواےلایتامہ‬ ‫ںیہنںیہاورا تتٹنلشمن ت‬
keep big business in the establishment’s corner; for ‫فی ششیگ ی‬
.‫تت س نیرھیتکسےہ‬،‫رصنعےکوطررپداھکیاجراہےہوت‬
the money from abroad has usually been used to pay
for subsidies and profit-making, compensating for the
lack of policy continuity.

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Prepared by
Muhammad Ammar
DAWN
Opinion Translation
Struggle to survive: However, it would be unfair to
simply focus on the people and groups at the top. This
is not just about them. That the ordinary people have
had enough is evident. And this is linked less to Imran
Khan than it is to the economic situation; in fact, their
anger has turned Khan into the popular force he is
rather than him having galvanised the people.
The vandalism and violence on the streets in recent
days is also a result of this. The outrage and horror
aside, citizens’ attacks on symbols of the state is a
serious indication of the latter’s legitimacy crisis and
should be of concern to those in privileged positions.
To simply see this as the work of one party’s planning
would be to miss the woods for the trees.
There is a message for all of us in the videos of
ordinary people stealing food items from ‘Jinnah
House’ in Lahore. In one short scene, a young man is
putting a pack of ketchup in his backpack and calling
it maal-i-ghaneemat.
Not a peacock or golf sets or even strawberries, an
exotic fruit by Pakistani standards. But just locally
manufactured ketchup. In another, someone is holding
up a handful of frozen falsas.
Both the ketchup and the frozen falsas should shake
us allmore than the violence. For we should be asking
how such ordinary kitchen items became worth
stealing, or come to symbolise elite excess for those
left behind in the economic mismanagement.
Even the anger against the military is driven to an
extent by economic hardship. This anger predates
2022 — although it intensified considerably in the
past year —as the popular swing in favour of the
PML-N after 2018 was also due to the chatter about
how ‘their’ meddling had led to inflation.
With the change of government, party positions too
have changed but one target of public anger remains
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16 May 2023
Tuesday
‫ی‬ ‫ی‬ ‫سٹییٹنلش ش گ‬
‫ن‬ ‫ن‬
‫ٹےکوکےنںیمیرےاکروپناروکیرقراررےنھکےکےئل‬ ‫ا تت من ت‬،‫میسقترکےنےکےئلڈارلےکریغب‬
‫ی‬
‫مکہگجےہ۔ویکہکنریبونکلمےسآےنوایلرمقاعموطررپسینشت ذڈیاورانمعفامکےنےکےئلادایگیئ‬
.‫پایسیللسلستیکیمکیکالتیف‬,‫ےکےئلاامعتسلوہیتےہ‬
‫گ‬
‫ولوگںاوررگووپںرپرصفوتہجرموکز ا‬،‫پامہ‬:‫زدنہرےنہےکےئل نجذودہج‬
‫ہی‬.‫رکپریغافصنمہنوہاگ‬
‫اورہیاعمیش‬.‫ہکاعمولوگںےکپاساکیفےہہیواحضےہ‬.‫رصفانےکپنارےںیمںیہنےہ‬
‫انےکےصغےناخنوکوبقملاطقںیم‬,‫وصراحتلےسمکرمعاناخنےسکلسنمےہ۔درتقیقح‬
‫جن‬
.‫سپیانبراہےہ‬
‫دبتلیرکدپاےہسجیکاجبےئوہولوگںوک ت‬
‫ش‬
‫مغوہصغاوروحوکایترطف‬.‫احہیلدونںںیمڑسوکںرپوتڑوھپڑاوردشتدیھباساکہجیتنےہ‬
‫ش‬ ‫گ‬
‫ؤمخاذلرکےکاقونینوجازےکرحباناکنیگنساشارہ‬
‫رہشی’رپاستیکالعوتمںرپےلمح ر‬،‫رےتھکوہےئ‬
‫اےسضحمایت‬.‫ےہاوررمااعتپاہتفدہعوںرپرےنہواولںےکےئلاسیکوشتشیوہیناچےئہ‬
.‫پاریٹیکوصنمہبدنبیاکاکمہیدانھکیوہاگہکدروتخںےکےئللگنجیکیمکوسحمسرکںی‬
‫ی‬
‫س‬‫یویزںیممہ ن‬ ‫الوہرںیم‘انجحاہؤس’ےساھکےنیکاایشءوچریرکےنواےلاعمولوگںیکو ذ‬
‫ایتونوجاناےنپگیبںیمتک تپچٹتاکایتٹکیپاگلراہ‬،‫ایترصتخمرظنمںیم‬.‫ےکےئلایتاغیپمےہ‬
‫گ ی‬
.‫ٹہہکراہےہ‬‫تیتہتٹتی تپمتنت ت‬-‫ےہاوراےسامل‬
‫نکیل‬.‫پااتسکینایعمراتاکایتریغیکلملھپ‬،‫سپااہیںیہکارٹساریبیںیہن‬ ‫پاکپاوگفل یت‬
.‫وکیئیھٹمرھبدمجنمافسلوکاھتےموہےئےہ‬،‫ایتاورںیم‬.‫رصفاقمیموطررپایتررکدہتک تپچٹت‬
‫ویکہکنںیمہہیوپانھچاچےئہہک‬.‫تک تپچٹتاوردمجنمافسلدوونںوکدشتدےسںیہکزپادہالہدانیاچےئہ‬
‫پناوریچاخےنیکایسیاعمزیچںیوچریرکےنےک ن‬
‫پااعمیشدبااظتنیمںیمےھچیپرہ‬،‫اقبےسیکوہںیئگ‬
.‫اجےنواولںےکےئلارشاہیفےسزپادہیکالعمےننبآںیئ‬
‫گ‬
‫ہیہصغ‬.‫اہیںیہکوفجےکالخفہصغاعمیشالکشمتیکوہجےسایتدحیاکرقرامےہ‬
‫رکپےہاحالہکنہیےلھچپاسل—ںیماکیفدشتاایتخررکایگاھتویکہکن‬
‫—یکشیپوگیئ ا‬2022
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Prepared by 16 May 2023
Muhammad Ammar
DAWN Tuesday

Opinion Translation

the same. The violence of the past few days needs to ‫انیےکقحںیموبقملوسگنئیھباس اپنتیکوہجےسیھتہک‘انیک‬-‫ےکدعبیپامیالی‬2018
be seen in this context as well. ‫ش‬ ‫گ‬
.‫’دماتلخاقراطزراکپناعینبیھت‬
If we have to condemn the vandalism against state
symbols, we should do so with some introspection.
The suffering and anger of the people is our collective ‫پاریٹےکدہعوںںیمیھبدبتیلیآیئےہنکیلوعایمےصغاکایتدہف‬،‫وکحمتیکدبتیلیےکاسھت‬
failure.
.‫ےلھچپھچکدونںےکدشتدوکیھباسانترظںیمدےنھکییکرضورتےہ‬.‫ایتاسیجیہےہ‬
The writer is a journalist.

‫ںیمہھچکدلخادنازیےکاسھت‬،‫ارگںیمہرپایتسالعوتمںےکالخفوتڑوھپڑیکذممرکینےہوت‬
‫گ‬ ‫گ‬
.‫ولوگںاکدھکاورہصغہاریاامتجیعپااکیمےہ‬.‫رکپاچےئہ‬
‫ااسی ا‬

.‫فنصمایتاحصیفےہ‬

Too famished to sing paeans

Jawed Naqvi
A QUAINT Hindi metaphor nicely describes the ‫گ ی‬
‫ایتوکتنیئدنہیااعتسرہاکرپایےکر اتپیتسااختنپناتےکاتنجئوکایھچرطحےسایبنرکپاےہ‬
results from the Karnataka state polls that saw Prime ‫گ‬ ‫گ‬
Minister Modi’s religious bigotry roundly thwarted. ،‫“وھبےچنجھب اپوہ‬.‫سجںیموزیرامظعومدییکذمیبہبصعتوکزیتیےسپااکمقراردپاایگاھت‬
“Bhookhe bhajan na hoey, Gopala.” In other words:
‫اخیلٹیپرپآپیک‬،‫انتجمہآپےسایپررکےتںیہ‬،‫“الرڈ‬:‫وگپال۔”دورسےوظفلںںیم‬
“Lord, much as we love you, it’s not possible to sing ‫گ‬ ‫گ‬
your praise on an empty stomach.” Indeed, while the ‫ہکبجیبےجیپےناملسمونںےکالخفاینپقرہقواراہن‬،‫اگپنکممںیہنےہ۔”درتقیقح‬ ‫رعتفی ا‬
BJP continued its communal rant against Muslims, ‫گ‬ ‫گ‬
their dress code, their food culture, and promoted ‫وپرلاینشیوکقروغدپاپاہکوہایت‬
‫ر‬ ‫اورذمیبہ‬،‫انیکوفڈرچلکوکاجریراھک‬،‫انےکابلسوکڈ‬،‫رشجن‬
religious polarisation to dip into a cynically ‫رغبےکاخےمتاک‬ ‫اکرگنسیےن ن‬,‫دیجنسہوطررپعمجوہےنواےلدنہوووٹکنیبںیمڈوباجےئ‬
assembled Hindu vote bank, the Congress stole a ‫گ‬
march on its opponent by committing to poverty ‫یلجبےکرغ نت‬،‫دہعرکےتوہےئاےنپاخمفلرپامرچوچریایک‬
‫افرغالیصحتلاقراد‬،‫دیفمویوٹنں‬،‫ب‬
alleviation, promising free rice to the poor, useful
‫اوررپاست‬,‫اورڈولپامرےنھکواولںےکےئلےبروزاگریےکوہفیظےکےئلتفماچولاکودعہایک‬
units of electricity, unemployment stipend for
graduates and diploma holders, and free bus travel for .‫رھبںیموخانیتےکےئلتفمسبرفس‬
women across the state.

Every detail that Rahul Gandhi had culled from his ‫ہرلیصفتوجراوہلاگدنیھےناےنپوطلیامرچےساحلصیکیھتاےسااختنیبوشنمرںیمڈالدپا‬
long march was put into the election manifesto. The ‫گ‬ ‫گ‬
party wouldn’t allow communal rhetoric by the BJP ‫رمکےکاسھتایتامہ‬‫پاریٹیبےجیپےکذرہعیقرہقواراہنایبنپنازیوکدنہواتسنےکآیئیٹ ر‬.‫ایگ‬
to shift focus from the yawning rich-poor disparity, a
‫اسےناسدنگیگےک‬.‫بافتوتےسوتہجرموکزرکےنیکااجزتںیہندےیگ‬ ‫ےبدحرغ نت‬،‫ہلئسم‬
major issue with India’s IT hub. It squarely targeted
‫گش‬ ‫گ ی‬
crony capitalism for the mess, underscored by ‫سجںیموعایمحطسرپدبونعاینےکالخفوعایم‬،‫ےئلتخسوطررپ ھیتٹتاارسامہیداریوکناہنانبپا‬
backing public ire against pervasive corruption. ‫گ‬
Simultaneously, the Congress promised to deal firmly ‫اکرگنسیےنقرہقواراہندشتدےسوبضمیطےس‬،‫اسےکاسھتیہ‬.‫امحبتیکامحبتیکیئگےہ‬
with communal violence. .‫ےنٹمناکودعہایک‬

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DAWN
Opinion Translation
The promise rekindled the party’s lost habit to
confront the Hindutva challenge boldly on two fronts,
economic and social, by rallying against crony
capitalism and poverty and a commitment to repair
the social fabric damaged by BJP’s communal
politics. Rewards came swiftly. Commitment to fight
communalism saw traditional Muslim votes shift from
their traditional support for former prime minister
Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular) party. Its recent
flirting with the BJP cost it dear, and shored up the
Congress percentage of vote share to over 43 per cent,
roughly a 5pc rise from 2018. However, the BJP vote
stayed more or less uniform at 36pc. In other words,
the Hindu right has kept its flock together, losing less
than 0.5pc to the Congress.
While the BJP studiously shunned them, the Congress
fielded 15 Muslim candidates of whom nine won.
Symbolically and as material support to a hounded
community, the Congress promised to restore a 4pc
quota of reservation for jobs and admission in
educational institutions for Muslims. The BJP had
taken away the quota marked for the community and
split the 4pc equally between two Hindu castes.
Above all, the Congress promised to rein in vigilante
assaults unleashed by groups like the Bajrang Dal and
lumpen street brawlers sponsored by Hindutva
minders. The Bajrang Dal is so called after Lord
Rama’s heroic aide, Hanuman. An interesting aside in
the elections was Mr Modi’s last minute bid at the fag
end of the campaign to liken the Congress promise to
shut down Bajrang Dal’s violence as an insult to
Hanuman, and on cue it became the main narrative on
TV channels loyal to the prime minister. The adverse
results could be seen as a rebuke to Mr Modi’s
equating the lumpen group with a revered deity.
Every detail that Rahul Gandhi had culled from his
long march was put into the election manifesto.
Commonly known as ‘WhatsApp University’ its
Muslim-baiting saw the BJP inventing two Hindu
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16 May 2023
Tuesday
‫اعمیش‬،‫اسودعےےندنہووتاجنلیچاکاقمہلبرکےنےکےئلپاریٹیکوھکیئوہیئاعدتوکدواحمذوں‬
‫رکوینرسامہیداریاور ن‬,‫رپڈاٹھیئےسزدنہرکدپا‬،‫اوراعمرشیت‬
‫رغبےکالخفریلیاوریبےجیپ‬
‫گ‬ ‫گ‬
.‫ااعنامتزیتیےسآےئ‬.‫یکقرہقواراہنایسستےسخراباعمرشیتپاےنپناےنیکرمماکزعم‬
‫گ‬
(‫قرہقواربتےسڑلےنےکزعمےنروایتیملسموووٹںوکاسقبوزیرامظعڈویوگڈاےکاتنجڈال‬
‫یبےجیپےکاسھتاسیکاحہیلڑیھچ‬.‫وکیسرل)پاریٹےکےئلروایتیاعتونےسدبتلیرکےتداھکی‬
‫گ‬
‫دصیفےسزپادہ‬43‫اوراکرگنسیےکوووٹںےکصصحیکدصیفوک‬،‫اھچڑےساسیکتمیقزع ریےہ‬
‫یپیسرپمکو‬36‫یبےجیپووٹ‬،‫پامہ‬.‫یپیسااضہفوہاےہ‬55‫ےسرقتابی‬2018‫وج‬،‫رکدپاایگ‬
‫ےسیھبمکتسکش‬pc0.5‫دنہوداںیئےناکرگنسیوک‬،‫دورسےوظفلںںیم‬.‫شیباسکیںراہ‬
.‫اھکےتوہےئاےنپرویڑوکاسھتراھکےہ‬
‫ی‬
‫ملسمادیمواروںوک‬15‫اکرگنسیےن‬،‫ہکبجیبےجیپےنانوک ن رییاکایمیبےکاسھتمتخرکدپا‬
‫العیتماورایتتخس نیرادریوکامدیدمد‬.‫دیمانںیمڑھکاایکنجںیمےسونےناکایمیباحلصیک‬
pc4‫اکرگنسیےناملسمونںےکےئلیمیلعتاداروںںیمالمزوتمںاورداےلخےکےئل‬،‫ےکوطررپ‬
‫گش‬ ‫گ‬
‫یبےجیپےنویمکیٹنےکےئلنانزدوکہٹنیھچایلاھتاوردودنہو‬.‫ر ریرونشیاحبلرکےناکودعہایک‬
‫ی‬
‫اکرگنسیےندنہواتسنےک‬،‫سےس نیرھرک‬ ‫ ن‬.‫وکاسکیںوطررپمیسقتایکاھت‬pc4‫ذاوتںےکامنیب‬
‫گ‬
‫گ‬
‫ب نیروریلزےسیجرگووپںےکذرہعیاجری‬‫نارٹس یت‬
‫ذنہاسزوںےکزیراامتہمرجبنڈالاوراتیکل ت‬
‫گ‬ ‫گ‬
‫ونہامنےکپامےس‬،‫رجبنڈالالرڈرامےکاہبدراعمون‬.‫رگناینےکولمحںرپاگلمڈاےنلاکودعہایک‬
‫گ‬
‫ااختنپناتںیمایتدپسچلپناتہییھتہکرٹسمومدییک رت‬.‫اکپرااجپاےہ‬
‫آخیٹنمیکوبیلاکرگنسی‬
‫ےکودعےوکرتسمدرکےنیکمہمےکااتتخمرپاحونامنیکوتنیہےکوطررپگنجبڈالےکدشتدوک‬
‫اورویکرپہیوزیرامظعےکوافداریٹویزلنیچیک‬,‫دنبرکےنےکودعےوکرتسمدرکےنےکےئلیھت‬
‫گ‬
‫رٹسمومدیےکےئلایتدورسےےکاسھتایتدورسےےکاسھتلمرک‬.‫رمکیدااتسننبایگ‬ ‫ر‬
.‫اسےکیفنماتنجئوکرسزشنےکوطررپداھکیاجاتکسےہ‬
‫ہرلیصفتوجراوہلاگدنیھےناےنپوطلیامرچےساحلصیکیھتاےسااختنیبوشنمرںیمڈالدپا‬
.‫ایگ‬
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Prepared by 16 May 2023
Muhammad Ammar
DAWN Tuesday

Opinion Translation
‫گ‬ ‫گ‬ ‫گ‬
characters from a particular caste, claiming they were ‫اجپاجپاےہاسیکملسم ن ت‬
‫بےنیبےجیپوکایت‬ ‫اعموطررپ‘واسٹابتویوینریٹس’ےکپامےس ا‬
the ones who killed the Mysore ruler Tipu Sultan, the
legendary challenger to British rule. Tipu eventually ‫اورہیدوعیایکہکوہیہوہےھتوہنجںےن‬،‫اخصذاتےسدودنہورکدارااجیدرکےتوہےئداھکی‬
fell in May,1799 to a joint force of the Marathas, ‫گ‬
‫وپیٹپن ر‬.‫ نیراطونیرمکحایناکااسفونیجنلیچ‬,‫وسیمررمکحانوپیٹاطلسنوکالہکایک‬
‫ںیم‬1799‫اآلخیئم‬
British troops and the army of the Nizam of
‫گگ‬
Hyderabad. The BJP has been on a spree of ‫یبےجیپ‬.‫ نیراطونیوفویجںاوردیحرآپنادےکیرامیکوفجیکرتشمہکوقتےکپاسرگایگ‬،‫امراپاس‬
overturning historical facts or making them vanish
from schoolbooks. .‫پاریخیاقحقئوکمتخرکےنپااوکسلیکاتکوبںےساںیہنمتخرکےنیکایتاکایمیبرپےہ‬

To restore the impugned books and revive intellectual ‫گ گ‬

vigour, or generally to fortify the democratic ‫پااعموطررپلبقتسمےک‬،‫ااجیاتکںیباحبلرکےناورداوشنراہنوجشوکاحبلرکےنےکےئل‬
‫پ ر‬
institutions against future subversion, the opposition
‫ںیمرٹسمومدیوک‬2024‫اوپزنشیوک‬،‫اغبوتےکالخفوہمجریاداروںوکوبضمطانبےنےکےئل‬
needs to defeat Mr Modi in 2024. Analysts see the
‫گ ی‬
Karnataka results in which the Congress has won an ‫زجتہیاکروںےنرکپایےکاتنجئدےھکیںیہسجںیماکرگنسیےن‬.‫تسکشدےنییکرضورتےہ‬
impressive 135 seats against the BJP’s 66 in a 224- ‫ش‬
seat House, as a prelude to that end. Before the ،‫ںیتسشناحلصںیک‬135‫اتمینک‬‫ےکالخف ر‬66‫وتسشنںواےلاویانںیمیبےجیپیک‬224
‫گ‬
general elections, however, there would be more ‫اساسلےک ر‬،‫پامہ‬،‫اعمااختنپناتےسےلہپ‬.‫اسدصقمےکشیپوگیئےکوطررپ‬
‫آخںیماوریھب‬
contests later this year, in which the Congress faces ‫گ‬
the BJP. Elections in Congress-ruled Rajasthan and ‫اکرگنسیےکزیرااظتنمرااھتسجن‬.‫رکپڑپپاےہ‬
‫سجںیماکرگنسیوکیبےجیپاکاسانم ا‬،‫اقمہلبوہاگ‬
BJP-ruled Madhya Pradesh in particular would be ‫ی‬
‫اوریبےجیپےکزیرااظتنمدمہیھرپدشیںیمااختنپناتاخصوطررپآےگ نیرےنھےکےئلامہاکنت‬
crucial pointers to the headwinds ahead.
.‫وہںےگ‬
Winning back power from the BJP in a southern state
is possibly easier than fighting a communal challenge
‫گ‬ ‫گ‬
in a northern state. There is a clear north-south divide ‫یسکونجیبرپاستںیمیبےجیپےسادتقارواسپ نتجٹتیٹااامشیلرپاستںیمقرہقواراہنجنلیچےسڑلےن‬
in communal politics. When Indira Gandhi was routed ‫گ‬
in the post-emergency elections in the north, the ‫ ن ن‬.‫قرہقواراہنایسستںیمامشلونجبںیمواحضمیسقتےہ‬.‫ےسںیہکزپادہآاسنےہ‬
‫حامشلںیم‬
southern states stood resolutely with the Congress in
‫ںیماکرگنسیےکاسھتوپری‬1977‫ونجیبرپاںیتس‬،‫اگنہیمااختنپناتںیمادنرااگدنیھوکرواکایگوت‬
1977. Mrs Gandhi began her revival from Karnataka,
‫گ ی‬
winning the Lok Sabha seat vacated for her in ‫ولکاھبسیکتسشن ن ت‬،‫زسماگدنیھےناکرپایےساینپاحبیلاکآاغزایک‬.‫رطحڑھکیوہںیئگ‬
‫چ‬
Chikmaglur. A slogan mocked the Janata Party,
which collapsed with internal feuding soon after ‫وجاکرگنسیوکروٹ‬،‫ایترعنےےناتنجپاریٹاکذماقاڑا تپا‬.‫رکامکچولگرںیمانےکےئلاخیلوہیئگ‬
routing the Congress. “Ek sherni sao langur. Ek shrni sao langur. “.‫رکےنےکوفرادعبیہدایلخڑگھجےےکاسھترگایگ‬
Chikmagalur bhai Chikmagalur.” (One tigress is ‫ی‬
enough to take on 100 monkeys. Thank you ‫آپاکرکشہی‬.‫دنبروںوکےنیلےکےئلاکیفےہ‬100‫امکچولگراھبیئامکچولگر۔”(ایتپائر‬
Chikmagalur.) Could Karnataka again revive the ‫قش‬ ‫گ ی‬
?‫امکچولگر۔)ایکاکرپایایتپناررھپاکرگنسیپاریٹیکوخش تمیتنوںوکزدنہرکاتکسےہ‬
Congress party’s fortunes?

The question can be framed differently. Would the ‫گ ی‬ ‫وسالوکفلتخمرطےقیےس ن‬

magic of Rahul Gandhi’s long march shored up by
powerful local leaders in Karnataka replicate in, say,
Madhya Pradesh in a straight fight with the BJP?
Also, the Congress is a house divided in Rajasthan,
where the chief minister confessed to taking help
‫ایکرکپایںیماطوتقراقمیمرامنہؤںےکذرہعی‬.‫رمبایکاجاتکسےہ‬
‫راوہلاگدنیھےکوطلیامرچاکاجدویبےجیپےکاسھتدیسیھڑلایئںیمدمہیھرپدشییکلقن‬
‫اہجںوز رتیایلعےندایلخاغبوتوک‬،‫اکرگنسیرااھتسجنںیممسقنماکمنےہ‬،‫ایتررکےاگ?زین‬
‫گ‬
،‫پاچناسلےلہپ‬.‫پااکمانبےنےکےئلیبےجیپےکاسقبمہبصنمےسدمدےنیلاکارتعافایک‬

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Prepared by 16 May 2023
Muhammad Ammar
DAWN Tuesday

Opinion Translation

from a former BJP counterpart to thwart an internal ‫ںیماسےس‬2013‫وج‬،‫ووٹرئیشوکامنپاںوطررپےنتیجںیماکایمبایک‬pc39.3‫اکرگنسیےن‬

coup. Five years ago, the Congress managed to
significantly win a 39.3pc vote share, 6pc more than
what it got in 2013 when it won a paltry 21 seats. In
comparison, the BJP’s votes went down from 45.2pc
to 38.8pc, a difference of 6.4pc. Today, both are
nearly at par. Much would depend on how the
Congress positions itself with other opposition
parties. Would they be able to arrive at a modus
vivendi about their larger future soon, preferably with
a common minimum programme to avoid ideological
logjam? Karnataka is a good beginning, not least for
the way the Congress has tackled attempts by the BJP
to introduce communal discourse. It stuck to secular
issues. The question is: will the northern voters be
ready to sing paeans to anyone, on an empty stomach?
The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Delhi.
A state in chaos
Dr Niaz Murtaza
WITH Pakistanis in a ride combining a super-fast
roller coaster and a merry-go-round, one cannot resist
asking how this cursed nation ended up here. It has
faced massive problems since 1947. But the last one
year has been very bad given the number of
challenges, their intensity and duration.
‫ںیتسشن ن ت‬21‫حاسےن‬
‫یبےجیپےکووٹ‬،‫اسےکاقمےلبںیم‬.‫چںیل‬ ‫زپادہاھت ن ن‬pc6
‫گ‬
‫بقر نت‬
‫ب‬ ‫دوونںقر نت‬،‫آج‬.‫اکقرقےہ‬pc6.4‫وج‬،‫وہےئگ‬pc38.8‫ےسمکوہرک‬pc45.2
‫تہبھچکاسپناترپرصحنموہاگہکاکرگنسیدورسےاوپزنشیپارویٹںےکاسھتسکرطح‬.‫ںیہ‬
‫ایکوہرظنپایتولاجگمےسےنچبےکےئلیریحیجوطررپرتشمہکمکےسمک‬.‫اینپتیثیحریتھکےہ‬
‫ی‬
?‫اےنپ نیرےلبقتسمےکپنارےںیمایتومڈوسوویڈنییچنہپںیکسےگ‬،‫رپورگامےکاسھت‬
‫گ ی‬
‫مکازمکاسرطےقیےکےئلسجرطحاکرگنسیےنیبےجیپیک‬،‫رکپایایتایھچرشواعتےہ‬
‫گ‬
.‫ہیوکیسرلاومررپسنھپایگ‬.‫رطفےسقرہقواراہنوگتفگوکاعتمرفرکاےنیکوکوششںےساٹمنےہ‬
?‫ایکامشیلوورٹاخیلٹیپرپیسکوکیھبپاپاناگےنےکےئلایتروہںےگ‬:‫وسالہیےہہک‬
.‫فنصمدیلہںیمڈاناکامندنئہےہ‬
‫گی‬
‫راؤیےکازتماجرپلمتشمایتوساریںیمپااتسکوینںےک‬
‫ایتزیتراتفررورلوکرٹساورایتوخوگشار ذ‬
‫گ‬
1947‫اےس‬.‫وکیئہیوپےنھچےسمراتمحںیہنرکاتکسہکہیوعلمنوقماہیںےسیکمتخوہیئ‬،‫اسھت‬
‫گ‬ ‫ی‬
‫ےس نیرےامیپےنرپرپاشیوینںاکاسانم ا‬
‫انیک‬،‫نکیلےلھچپایتاسلوجنلیچںیکدعتاد‬.‫رکپڑپاےہ‬
‫گ‬
.‫دشتاوردمتےکشیپرظنتہبخرابراہےہ‬

More bleakly, for the first time no one seems in

control during a period when stability is especially ‫یلہپپناریسکوکیھباسدمتےکدورانرٹنکولںیمںیہناتگل ن ن‬،‫زپادہپاریت‬
‫حااکحتسمیکاخصوطر‬
needed. Instead, there is chaos under the heavens. The ‫گ ش‬
iron fist that long imposed an unhealthy order is ‫آیرنیھٹمسجےنوطلی‬.‫آامسونںےکےچینانیشاارےہ‬،‫اسےکاجبےئ‬.‫رپرضورتوہیتےہ‬
losing its grip and seems paralysed. A unipolar ‫گ‬
.‫رعےصےسریغتحصشخبآرڈرپاذفایکوہاینپرگتفوھکراہےہاورااسیاتگلےہہکولفمجوہایگےہ‬
system has suddenly become a multipolar one, with
‫گ‬
many stakeholders pulling it in various directions. ‫تہبےساکیٹسوہڈلرزاےسفلتخموتمسں‬،‫ایتیتیبطقاظنمااچیایتریثکیبطقنبایگےہ‬

The main stakeholder, which is also a stick holder, is .‫ںیمےتچنیھکںیہ‬

unable to wield the stick to impose order as it did
earlier. ‫گ‬ ‫گ‬
‫مکحپاذفرکےنےکےئلڑھچیالچےنےس‬،‫وجایتاکٹسوہڈلریھبےہ‬،‫رمکیاکیٹسوہڈلر‬
‫ر‬
The self-imposed umpire has never been this weak
.‫اقرصےہاسیجہکےلہپوہااھت‬
since 1971, when it presided over the loss of a wing
and lost control for five years. That loss came
suddenly; this one came slowly.

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Muhammad Ammar
DAWN Tuesday

Opinion Translation
‫گ‬
‫ونےکاصقننیک‬‫حاسےن ت‬ ‫ ن ن‬،‫ےکدعبےسوخداسہتخااپمیریھبکیھبہیزمکورںیہنراہ‬1971
‫گ‬
The start came with the end of cosy ties with the US .‫وہاصقننااچیآایگ۔ہیآہتسہآہتسہآپا‬.‫دصارتیکاورپاچناسلیاانپرٹنکولوھکد اتپ‬
that provided money, arms and political support for
imposing autocracy. China will not step in to fill the
void. Ties with once pet extremists are now tense.
Jihadists that were tools to subjugate and indoctrinate
society had to be leashed given FATF issues. ‫ہیآاغزارمہکیےکاسھتآرامدہاقلعتتےکاخےمتےکاسھتوہاسجےنوخداتخمریطلسمرکےن‬
‫گ‬
‫ایت‬.‫نیچپنالطوک ُ ریرکےنےکےئلدقمںیہنااھٹےئاگ‬.‫اہحلساورایسیسدمدقرامہیک‬،‫ےکےئلرمق‬
But the biggest loss has come from the stormy tiff
with the political sidekick expected to serve as a weak ‫اہجدیوجاعمرشےوکوکحمم‬.‫پنارپاوتلاجونروںےکااہتندنسپوںےکاسھتاقلعتتابدیشکہںیہ‬
façade in a hybrid system. The break followed Imran
‫افیاےیٹافیےکاسملئےکشیپرظناںیھن‬،‫انبےناورانوکریغذہمبرکےنےکاوزارےھت‬
Khan’s incompetence, maverick acts and desire for
‫گ‬
autonomy. It has forced the umpire to go back to the .‫رکپڑپا‬
‫متخ ا‬
PPP and PML-N whom it doesn’t like or trust either.

‫ی‬ ‫ی‬
It has also caused the loss of countless loyal TV ‫سےس نیرااصقننوطافینوطافنےسوہاےہسجیکوتعقایسیساسیذکیکےناہربئڈمٹسس‬ ‫نکیل ن‬
anchors and social media trolls that once spread its ‫گ‬
narrative but who have now gone with Khan. Most ‫دبونعاینیکرحںیتکاور‬،‫اسوےفقےکدعبایراناخنیکپاایلہ‬.‫ںیمزمکوردڑھایکتیثیحےسیکےہ‬
crucially, it has lost its narrative to Khan who presents
‫انیںیمواسپاجےنرپوبجمرایک‬-‫اسےنااپمیروکیپیپیپاوریپامیالی‬.‫وخداتخمرییکوخاشہیھت‬
himself as even more anti-US, anti-India and
religious. .‫ےہےسجوہدنسپںیہنرکپاےہپااامتعدںیہنرکپاےہ‬

A unipolar system has become a multipolar one.

‫اسےسانتنگوافداریٹویارکنیاوروسلشڈیمپارٹوولںاکیھباصقننوہاےہوجایتپناراسیک‬
Autocratic forces control society through a mix of
economic carrots and hegemony where people ‫اسےن‬،‫سےسامہپناتہیےہہک‬
‫ ن‬.‫دااتسنوکالیھپےتںیہنکیلوجاباخنےکاسھتےئگںیہ‬
willingly buy its narrative. This reduces the resort to
‫دنہواتسناخمفلاورذمیبہےکوطررپ‬،‫اخنےساینپدااتسنوھکدیےہوجوخدوکارمہکیےکاخمفل‬
expensive inducements and brute violence to control
society. Thus, the loss of narrative to Khan increases .‫شیپرکپاےہ‬
transaction costs for the establishment in imposing its
will.
.‫ایتیتیبطقاظنمایتریثکیبطقنبایگےہ‬
Finally, the judiciary is also acting aloof and there are
rumours of internal rifts within the umpire’s ranks.
‫وہمجریوقںیتاعمیش ن ر‬
Resultantly, tactics that always delivered in taming
‫اگخاورطلستےکرمبکےکذرہعیاعمرشےرپاقوبپایتلںیہاہجںولگ‬
past pesky politicians are failing against Khan; these ‫گ‬
include audio and video leaks, legal cases, horse- ‫اسےساعمرشےرپاقوبپاےنےکےئلےگنہمداللئاور‬.‫خیذےتںیہ‬ ‫وخیشےساسیکدااتسن ر‬
‫ی‬
trading, intimidation, jail visits and forced exile. ‫سٹی ش گ ی‬
‫ٹےکےئلاینپ‬‫اخنوکایبہینےکاصقننےسا تتٹنلشمن ت‬،‫اسرطح‬.‫دشیذدشتداکاہسرامکوہاجپاےہ‬
‫گ‬
But nature abhors a vacuum and chaos; so order will .‫رمیضطلسمرکےنںیمنیلدنیےکاخرااجتںیمااضہفوہپاےہ‬
soon emerge. Some naively think this chaos reflects
the end of an elite system and a better one will
emerge. However, that only happens where better

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Prepared by 16 May 2023
Muhammad Ammar
DAWN Tuesday

Opinion Translation
forces are strong enough to take over, and no such
forces presently exist in Pakistan.
Order will emerge with one or more of the current
forces — umpire, PDM and PTI — of the abhorrent
status quo winning. What are the possible paths back
to order?
The scariest one is immense pressure by some among
the umpires to put Khan back in power. This may
mean prolonged violence as in Yemen and Somalia;
even with peace there could be a set-up that ruins us
politically, economically, socially and externally.
Luckily, the chances of this happening are slim. A
second one is martial law but that is unlikely too as
the establishment would not want to bat on a
treacherous pitch with Khan bowling swinging
yorkers.
‫گ‬
.‫دعہیلیھبتہبزپادہاکمرکریہےہاورااپمیریکوفصںںیمدایلخاچولںیکاوفاںیہںیہ‬،‫آخںیم‬
‫ر‬
‫ہجیتنہیےہہکامیضےکرپاشیننکایسدتساونںوکڑیھچےنںیمہشیمہیکاجےنوایلدتریبںیاخنےک‬
‫ی‬ ‫گ‬
،‫دیکمھ‬،‫وھگڑےیکاجترت‬،‫اقونیناعمالمت‬،‫یویکیل‬
‫الخفپااکموہریہںیہ۔انںیمآڈویاورو ذ‬
‫ش‬
.‫لیجےکدورےاورربجیالجوینطشالمںیہ‬
‫گ‬ ‫گ ش‬
‫ھچکہنیسکوطررپ‬.‫نکیلرطفتایتالخاورانیشااروکمتخرکیتےہ۔لذادلجیہآرڈراسےنمآاجےئاگ‬
‫گ ش‬
،‫پامہ‬.‫وسےتچںیہہکہیانیشاارارشاہیفےکاظنمےکاخےمتیکاکعیسرکپاےہاوراسےسرتہبدیپاوہاگ‬
،‫ہیرصفایسوصرتںیموہپاےہاہجںرتہبوقںیتادتقاراھبنسےنلےکےئلاکیفوبضمطوہیتںیہ‬
.‫اورپااتسکنںیماسوقایسیوکیئوقںیتوموجدںیہنںیہ‬
‫ےکاسھترکموہومجدےنتیجےک‬PTI — ‫اور‬PDM،‫آرڈرایتپازپادہوموجدہوقوتں—ااپمیر‬
?‫آرڈرےکےئلواسپآےنواےلہنکممراےتسایکںیہ‬.‫اسھتاسےنمآےئاگ‬

A third likely one is the imposition of emergency

under PDM to tame PTI, the judiciary and others in ‫سنتےسوخانفکدپناؤھچکااپمیروںںیمےسھچکےناخنوکادتقارںیمرےنھکےکےئلےبدحدپناؤ‬
the ranks. As the president and the judges may reject
it, it will have to be imposed unlawfully thus carrying ‫اساکبلطمنمیاوروصامہیلیکرطحوطلیدشتداکبلطموہاتکسےہ۔اہیںیہک‬.‫ڈاالےہ‬
the risk of Article 6 cases later. But that rarely occurs ‫انمےکاسھتیھبایتااسی یت‬
‫اعمرشیتاورریبوینوطررپ‬،‫اعمیش‬،‫ساپوہاتکسےہوجںیمہایسیس‬
in Pakistan.
.‫ن ریپنادرکپاےہ‬
The start of this option may see a reshuffle within,
then making the dentist president and many judges
‫گ‬
toothless, disqualifying and jailing Imran and rigging ‫دورساامرلشالءےہنکیلاساکااکمنیھب‬.‫اسےکوہےنےکااکمپاتےلتپںیہ‬،‫وخشیتمسقےس‬
‫ی‬
polls. It may give temporary stability but will lead to ‫گ‬ ‫سٹی ش گ ی‬
major losses later. It would be an option that would .‫رکپاچےہیگ‬
‫ٹاخنوبگنلپاررکزےکاسھتدغارییکچپرپگنٹیبںیہن ا‬ ‫ںیہنےہویکہکنا تتٹنلشمن ت‬
have to be applied with inducements and brutal
power, which may be hard to do given the ‫ش‬
establishment’s current weakness and the West’s ‫دعہیلاوردرگیوکوفصںںیمشالمرکےنےکےئلیپڈیامیےکتحت‬،‫رسیتاااکمنےہہکیپیٹآیئ‬
backlash. ‫گ‬
‫لذااےسریغاقونینوطررپ‬،‫وچہکندصراورججاسوکرتسمدرکتکسںیہ‬.‫اگنہیموصراحتلاکافنذےہ‬
‫ش‬ ‫گ‬ ‫گ‬
The best option, which is not impossible, are free ‫نکیلہیشاذو‬.‫ےکاعمالمتاکرطخہوملایلاجےئاگ‬6‫رکپڑپےاگاسرطحدعبںیمآرلکیٹ‬ ‫پاذف ا‬
polls and a level playing field. But even this will not ‫گ‬
end instability or misrule as one of two inept forces .‫پادریہپااتسکنںیموہپاےہ‬
— PTI (more so) and PDM — will win.

Neither will accept the other’s victory or let it rule ‫رھپداوتنںےکڈارٹکاورتہبےسوججںوک‬،‫اساایتخرےکآاغزںیمادنرردودبلرظنآاتکسےہ‬

peacefully. The PDM can run the current elite system ‫گ‬
‫ہیاعریضااکحتسمدے‬.‫پاالہاوردیقاورداھدنیلےکااختنپناتںیمدمدلمیتکسےہ‬،‫داوتنںےسپاک‬

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Prepared by 16 May 2023
Muhammad Ammar
DAWN Tuesday

Opinion Translation

until it collapses under the weight of its ‫ش‬ ‫گ‬ ‫ی‬

‫ہیایتآنشپوہاگسجوکداللئاوروایشحہن‬.‫اتکسےہنکیلدعبںیم نیرےاصقنپاتاکپناعےنباگ‬
‫ی‬
‫سٹی ش گ ی‬
unproductivity. The PTI can destroy it immediately ‫گ‬
but is too inept to replace it with a better one. Thus, ‫ٹیکوموجدہزمکوریاوررغمبیکردلمعوکدےتھکی‬ ‫وجا تتٹنلشمن ت‬،‫رکپڑپےاگ‬
‫اطقےکاسھتالوگ ا‬
stability and good rule remain distant dreams. ‫گ‬
.‫رکپلکشموہاتکسےہ‬
‫وہےئ ا‬
The writer is a political economist with a PhD from
the University of California, Berkeley. ‫گ‬
‫نکیلاہیںی‬.‫آزادراےئامشریاورحطسےکلیھکاکدیمانںیہ‬،‫وجپانکممںیہنےہ‬،‫رتہبنیآنشپ‬
‫گ‬
PTI ( —‫ہکاسےسدعمااکحتسمپادبیمظنمتخںیہنوہیگویکہکندوپاالہوقوتںںیمےسایت‬
‫گ‬
‫ ن ت‬PDM — ‫میذ)اور‬
.‫چاجےئاگ‬ ‫ر‬

PDM.‫ہنیہدورسےیکحتفوکوبقلرکےاگاورہنیہاےسرپانموطررپرمکحاینرکےندےاگ‬
‫حیہکوہاینپریغدیپاواریالصچتےکوزنےکتحتہن‬ ‫وموجدہارشاہیفاکاظنمالچاتکسےہ ن ن‬
‫گ‬
‫یپیٹآیئاےسوفریوطررپمتخرکاتکسےہنکیلاسیکہگجرتہبےسدبےنلںیمتہبپاالہ‬.‫رگاجےئ‬
.‫ااکحتسماورایھچرمکحایندوردرازےکوخابینبوہیئےہ‬،‫اسرطح‬.‫ےہ‬

.‫ نیرےلکےسیپاچیڈیےہ‬،‫فنصمایتایسیسامہراعمایشتںیہنجیکوفیلیکراینویوینریٹس‬

Leveraging COP28
Aisha Khan
AS we gear up for the 28th Conference of Parties ‫گ‬
‫لذاہیپاد‬،‫ےکےئلایترںیہ‬COP ) (‫وںیاکرفنسن‬28‫ںیمپارویٹںیک‬2023‫وچہکنمہدربمس‬
(COP) in December 2023, it is important to remember ‫گ‬
that laggard momentum is no longer an option. It is ‫ابوقآایگےہہکہنرصفاخراج‬.‫رانھکرضوریےہہکلتنتگاارڈیکراتفرابوکیئآنشپںیہنےہ‬
time to take stock not just of emission reduction ‫گ‬
‫ںیمیمکےکودعوںاکاجیرہایلاجےئہکلبعمجوہےنواےلآبووہاےکرحبانوکروےنکےکےئل‬
commitments but of the whole range of actions
‫گ‬
needed to ward off a gathering climate crisis. .‫دراکرادقاامتیکوپریرجنیاکاجیرہایلاجےئ‬

The COP presidency plays an important role in

navigating this complex and often contentious ‫گ‬
‫ہی‬.‫اسدیچیپہاورارثکمازہعلمعوکوینٹیگیرکےنںیمیساویپیکدصارتامہرکدارادارکیتےہ‬
process. This is a time for responding with urgency ‫نگک ش‬ ‫ی‬
and tabling concrete, ambitious propositions for ‫وتہمااک تشی‬،‫یٹنمٹسجےکےئلوھٹس‬ ‫وقےہہکوفریوطررپوجابدپااجےئاوردبتیلییکا ذ‬
transformative adjustments. The UAE can build on ‫گ‬
‫زیرگڈاالیئگںیمدیپاوہےنوایلراتفروکوبضمط‬‫دحتمہرعباامراترٹیپ ن‬.‫اجتو ریوکلبیٹایکاجےئ‬
the momentum generated at the Petersberg Dialogue
to articulate a forward-looking focus on key areas and ‫ومشبل‬،‫انباتکسےہپاہکدیلکیالعوقںرپرظتنموتہجرموکزیکاجےکساورااحتدیکلیکشتیکاجےکس‬
building alliances, including appointing ministerial ‫ش‬
pairs to lead on consultations. .‫اشمورترپینبموزاریتوجڑےیکرقترییھبشالمےہ‬

The UAE can steer the process to harvest key

outcomes from partners and strengthen its own

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Prepared by 16 May 2023
Muhammad Ammar
DAWN Tuesday

Opinion Translation

climate offer. The G7 Leaders Summit (May 19-21) ‫دحتمہرعباامراترشاتکداروںےسدیلکیاتنجئیکاٹکیئاوراینپآبووہایکشیپشکوکمکحتسم‬

and the Financing Pact Summit (June 23) are
opportunities to leverage ministerial signals for
setting expectations from specific actors (Canada, the
UK with the support of France) especially on the
phase-out of all fossil fuels and coal by 2030.
Similarly, efforts need to be made to ensure that
leaders from G7, at the Summit for a New Global
Financial Pact, show willingness to lead coalitions
driving international financial reform, and draw up a
joint roadmap for reform implementation and
overarching objectives, includingprivate finance.
This is an opportunity to ramp up pressure on new
international climate commitments to contribute to a
Loss and Damage (L&D) fund, by mobilising
commitments for making a path-breaking pledge for
the Green Climate Fund’s replenishment. The COP28
president-designate, Dr Sultan Al-Jaber has already
expressed his concern on the delay in the delivery of
$100 billion pledged in 2009 and its diminished value
after 14 years. The estimated new adaptation cost of
$1 trillion annually will not be an easy commitment to
secure.
‫گ گ‬ ‫ی‬
‫اورانفیسٹگاعمدہہٹمس‬21-19‫اقدئنیٹمسیئم‬7‫یج‬.‫رکےنےکلمعوکآےگ نیراھاتکسےہ‬
‫ش‬
‫وجنوصخمصادااکروںےسوتاعقتےطرکےنےکےئلوزاریتاشاروںےسافدئہااھٹےنےک‬23
‫گ‬
‫یامتمویجامش‬2030‫ نیراطہینقراسن)یکامحبتےکاسھتاخصوطررپ‬,‫وماعقںیہڈینیکا‬
‫ہیینیقیانبےنےکےئلوکںیششرکےنیکرضورتےہ‬،‫ایسرطح‬.‫ادنینھاوروکےلئےکرمےلحرپ‬
‫نیباالوقایمامیل‬،‫ایتےئناعیملامایلیتاعمدہےےکاالجسںیم‬،‫ےکرامنہؤںےن‬7‫ہکیج‬
‫اوراالصاحتےکافنذاوریجنامایلت‬,‫اظہیک‬
‫االصاحتےکےئلااحتدوںیکایقدترکےنرپآامدیگ ر‬
.‫تیمساقمدصیکرگناینےکےئلرتشمہکروڈپیمایتررکںی‬
‫ہیایتومعقےہہکاصقنناوراصقننںیمہصحڈاےنلےکےئلنیباالوقایمآبووہاےکےئن‬
‫رگنیآبووہاڈنفیکدوپنارہادایگیئےکےئلراہتس‬,‫ڈنف‬L&D ) (‫ودعوںرپدپناؤڈاالاجےئ‬
‫گ گ‬
‫ڈارٹکاطلسن‬،‫ےکدصرپامرد‬COP28.‫وتڑےناکدہعرکےنےکےئلودعوںوکرحتمکرکےک‬
‫گ‬
‫اسلےکدعباسیکمکتمیقرپاینپ‬14‫نیلبیکقرایمہںیمپاریخاور‬100$‫ںیم‬2009‫اربجلےن‬
‫رٹنیلییکہنیمختدشہیئنوماتقفالگوفحمظرکےناکآاسن‬1$‫اسالہن‬.‫وشتشیاکااہظرایکےہ‬
.‫زعمںیہنوہیگ‬

The list of ‘essential actions is long.

.‫‘رضوریادقاامتیکرہفسیبملےہ‬
Leading by example, the UAE could pioneer
innovative sources to secure reliable financial flows
for adaptation and loss and damage by making the
first pledge to the future L&D fund. This will help ‫دحتمہرعباامراتلبقتسمےکالیاڈنیڈیڈنفےسالہپدہعرکےکوماتقفاور‬،‫اثملےکوطررپ‬
initiate a responsive move by other multilateral actors. ‫جیذذراعئیکشیپشکرکاتکس‬ ‫اقباامتعدامیلاہبؤوکوفحمظانبےنےکےئل ن ذ‬ ‫اصقنناوراصقننےکےئل ن‬
As host, the UAE can also convene discussions on ‫ل‬
defining indicators to set trigger points for disbursing .‫ہپیادااکروںےکذرہعیوجادبہادقامرشوعرکےنںیمدمدےلمیگ‬ ‫اسےسدورسےریثکا ج ن ت‬.‫ےہ‬
L&D finance, particularly in the form of drought and
‫دحتمہرعباامراتالیاڈنیڈیانفسنوکریغرصحنمرکےنےکےئلرحمک‬،‫زیمپنانیکتیثیحےس‬
water stress, to enable effective measurement and ‫ش‬
response in terms of new funding. ‫اخصوطررپ‬،‫رمبرکےنےکےئلاشارےیکواضحرپیھبابتدہلایخلرکاتکسےہ‬ ‫وپاسٹنئ ن‬
‫ش‬ ‫گ‬
Climate summits put greater responsibility on the host ‫ومیامیپشئاورردلمعوک‬
‫یئنڈنفنےکاعمےلمںیم ر‬,‫کشخاسیلاورپاینےکانتؤیکوصرتںیم‬
country to ratchet up its climate offer to set the stage ‫ن گ‬
.‫اقبانبپا‬
for negotiations. The UAE’s Nationally Determined
Contributions set a target equivalent to emissions of
13 per cent above its 2015 levels in 2030. However,

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Prepared by 16 May 2023
Muhammad Ammar
DAWN Tuesday

Opinion Translation

the level of ambition required for a 1.5 degrees ‫ومایمسیت ن‬

‫رسیرایہاالجوسںےنزیمپنانکلمرپذمارکاتےکےئلرمہلحےطرکےنےکےئلاینپ‬
Celsius compatible emissions pathway is a 36-39pc
reduction. There is a clear opportunity here for the ‫دحتمہرعباامراتیکوقیموطر‬.‫آبووہایکشیپشکیکوتقیثرکےنیکزپادہذہمداریاعدئرکدی‬
UAE to leverage its diplomatic influence through ‫گ‬
‫دصیفےکاخراجےک نی ن ر‬13‫یکحطسےس‬2015‫ںیماینپ‬2030‫رپےطدشہرشاتکےن‬
‫رایدہف‬
credible actions and urge all countries to comply with ‫گ‬ ‫ی‬
the UNFCCC executive secretary’s call,to revisit and ‫یےکاطمقباخراجےکراےتسےکےئلدراکروخاشہیکحطس‬ ‫ڈرگییٹنیسرگ ذ‬1.5،‫پامہ‬.‫ےطایکاھت‬
strengthen their 2030 targets, aligning them with the
‫اہیںایتواحضومعقوموجدےہہکدحتمہرعباامرات ن‬.‫یمکےہ‬pc36-39
‫اقباامتعدادقاامت‬
Paris Agreement temperature goal.
‫ش‬
‫ایوروسخاکافدئہااھٹےئاورامتماممکلےسویانیافییسیسیسےک‬
‫ےکذرےعیاےنپافسریت ر‬
Building on the COP theme of “a zero carbon and
resilient world” and “partnerships to promote ‫ریپساعمدہےےکدرہجرحارت‬,‫ازگیوٹکیرکسرٹییےکاطمےبلیکلیمعترکےنیکپادیکرکے‬
progress,” the UAE could leverage its influence over ‫ش‬
‫ادہافرپرظنپایناوروقتبت‬2030‫انےک‬،‫ےکدصقمےکاسھتانیکفصدنبیرکےتوہےئ‬
the oil and gas sector to accelerate the global energy
transition towards renewable energy. It is also a .‫دانی‬
diplomatic opportunity for capitalising on the political
energy around reform of the financial system to
‫گ‬
broker MDBs’ support for mobilising guarantees and ‫“ایترفصاکرنباوردکچلارداین”اور“یریقوکقروغدےنیےکےئلرشاتکداریےکوموضعرپ‬
regional platforms to support the energy transition. ‫گ‬ ‫گ‬
‫اقبدجتیذوتاپایئیکرطفاعیملوتاپایئیکیلقتنموکزیترکےنےک‬‫”دحتمہرعباامرات ن‬,‫روینشڈاانل‬
COP28 needs to broker a policy and finance package ‫گ‬ ‫ش‬
‫وتاپایئیکیلقتنمیکامحبتےکےئل‬.‫ایوروسخاکافدئہااھٹاتکسےہ‬
‫ےئللیتاورسیگےکےبعشرپاےنپ ر‬
on food and land use. Governments need to reconfirm
‫گ‬
commitments to deliver nature-based finance under ‫افرموکرحتمکرکےنےکےئلامیلاظنمںیماالصاحتےکاردرگدایسیس‬ ‫اگرویٹنںاورالعاقیئٹیلپ ر‬
the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity ‫گ‬
Framework and agree to work towards scaling-up .‫وتاپایئوکافدئہاچنہپےناکہیافسریتومعقیھبےہ‬
private sector contributions by expanding payments
for ecosystem services.
‫وکاھکےناورزنیمےکاامعتسلےسقلعتمپایسیلاورانفسنجیکیپایتررکےنیک‬COP28
‫گ‬ ‫گ‬
The time is right for triggering debate on the MDBs’
‫ولگب اپنویڈوویریٹس رقمیورکےکتحترطفترپینبم‬ ‫ومرٹنپال ن‬-‫وکحوتمںوککپم گٹگ‬.‫رضورتےہ‬
financial models and aligning them with public good, ‫گ‬
‫گ‬
advancing debt relief of bilateral, multilateral and ‫انفسنیکقرایمہےکودعوںیکوتقیثرکےنیکرضورتےہاوراموحایلیتاظنمیکجذامتیک‬
privately held debt to free significant fiscal space for ‫ی‬
investments in the transformation, and making better .‫اداویگیئںںیموتعیسرکےکیجنےبعشیکرشاتکوک نیراھےنےکےئلاکمرکےنرپاافتقایکےہ‬
use of their toolbox, especially guarantees and
expansion of lending capacity.
‫وقتحیحصےہہکامیڈییب’امیلامڈزلرپثحبوکرحتمکایکاجےئاورانوکوعایمالھبیئےکاسھتمہ‬
The list of ‘essential actions’ is long; the outcome will ‫ل‬ ‫ی‬
‫ریثکا ج ن ت‬,‫دورطہفقروضںےساجنتوکآےگ نیراھپااجےئ‬،‫آگنہایکاجےئ‬
‫ہپیاوریجنوطررپرےھک‬
once again fall short of expectation. But given the
magnitude of the threat, the UAE must push parties to ‫اورانےکوٹلپناسکاکرتہب‬،‫وہےئقرضوکدبتیلیںیمرسامہیاکریےکےئلتفمامہامیلہگجرپ‬
develop, deploy and disseminate technologies and ‫گ‬ ‫گ‬ ‫گ‬
adopt policies to achieve deep decarbonisation in the .‫اخصوطررپقرضدےنییکالصچتیکامضباوروتعیسرکپا‬،‫رکپ‬ ‫اامعتسل ا‬
energy sector. This should be accompanied by a
strong demand for increased public and private
investments to mobilise quantity and quality of ‫نکیلرطخےیک‬.‫‘رضوریادقاامتیکرہفس’یبملےہ۔ہجیتنایتپناررھپوتعقےسمکوہاجےئاگ‬
finance for climate action, including tripling ‫گ‬ ‫گ‬
‫دحتمہرعباامراتوک رقنیقیوکوتاپایئےکےبعشںیمرہگیاجسوٹےک‬،‫دشتوکدےتھکیوہےئ‬

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Prepared by 16 May 2023
Muhammad Ammar
DAWN Tuesday

Opinion Translation

MDB/DFI finance from $60bn to $180bn in the next ‫اسےک‬.‫انیعتیتاورالیھپؤاورپاایسیلںاانپےنرپزوردانیوہاگ‬،‫وصحلےکےئلانکٹولویجںیکیریق‬

five years.
‫اسھتومایمسیتاکرروایئےکےئلدقماراورامیلایعمروکرحتمکرکےنےکےئلرساکریاوریجن‬
The writer is chief executive of the Civil Society ‫گ‬ ‫گ‬
‫گااضہفیھب‬
‫ںیمنیت ا‬/‫سجںیمامیڈییب‬،‫رسامہیاکریںیمااضےفیکوبضمطامنیھبوہیناچےئہ‬
Coalition for Climate Change. ‫ش‬
.‫انفسن‬DFI‫ی‬bn180$‫ےس‬bn60$‫اےلگپاچناسولںںیم‬/‫شالمےہ‬

.‫فنصموسلوساسیٹئوکنشیل نیراےئومایمسیتدبتیلیاکفیچازگیوٹکیےہ‬

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