Republic of the Philippines

CAMARINES NORTE STATE COLLEGE

F. Pimentel Avenue, Brgy. 2, Daet, Camarines Norte – 4600, Philippines

College of Engineering
Lesson 2 – Probability of an Event

Probability
Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event to occur. If an experiment can result in
any one of N different equally likely outcomes, and if exactly n of these outcomes correspond to event
A, then the probability of event A is

𝑛
𝑃 (𝐴 ) =
𝑁

Example 1: A statistic class for engineers consists of 25 industrial, 10 mechanical, 10 electrical, and 8
civil engineering students. If a person is randomly selected by the instructor to answer a question,
find the probability that the student chosen is an industrial engineering major.

Solution:
25 25
𝑃 (𝑖 ) = =
25 + 10 + 10 + 8 53

Additive Rule
➢ If A and B are two events which are mutually exclusive, then
P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)

➢ If A and B are two events which are not mutually exclusive, then
P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) – P (A ꓵ B)

Example 2: What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a pair of dice is rolled?

Solution:
Let A be the event that 7 occurs, and B the event that 11 occurs.
A = {1+6, 2+5, 3+4, 6+1, 5+2, 4+3} = 6 possible desired outcomes
B = {5+6, 6+5} = 2 possible desired outcomes
S = 6 x 6 = 36 total outcomes
Since the events A and B are mutually exclusive, therefore.
6 2 𝟐
𝑃 (𝐴 𝑈 𝐵 ) = 𝑃 (𝐴 ) + 𝑃 (𝐵 ) = + =
36 36 𝟗

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EN MATH 4 – Engineering Data Analysis
 Republic of the Philippines
CAMARINES NORTE STATE COLLEGE
F. Pimentel Avenue, Brgy. 2, Daet, Camarines Norte – 4600, Philippines

College of Engineering
Example 3: What is the probability of getting a king or heart on a deck of card?

Solution:
Let A be the event that a king is drawn, B the event that a heart is drawn.
A = 4 possible outcomes
B = 13 possible outcomes
N = 13 x 4 = 52 total possible outcomes
Since the events A and B are not mutually exclusive, since a drawn card could be king or heart,
therefore.
4 13 1 𝟒
𝑃 (𝐴 𝑈 𝐵 ) = + − =
52 52 52 𝟏𝟑

Complementary Events
If A and A’ are complementary events, then
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) + 𝑃 ( 𝐴′ ) = 1

Example 4: If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic will service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 or more cars
on any given workday are, respectively, 0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10, and 0.07. What is the probability
that he will service at least 5 cars on his next day at work?

Solution:
Let E be the event that a least 5 cars are serviced, and E’ is the event that fewer 5 cars are serviced,
since
P(E’) = 0.12 + 0.19 = 0.31
Thus:
P(E) = 1 – P(E’)
P(E) = 1 – 0.31 = 0.69

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EN MATH 4 – Engineering Data Analysis
 Republic of the Philippines
CAMARINES NORTE STATE COLLEGE
F. Pimentel Avenue, Brgy. 2, Daet, Camarines Norte – 4600, Philippines

College of Engineering
Conditional Probability
The probability of an event B occurring when it is known that some event A has occurred is
called conditional probability and is denoted by P(B⎸A), read as “the probability of B occurs given that
A occurs” or simply “the probability of B, given A.”
➢ The conditional probability of B, given A, denoted by P(B⎸A), is defined by
𝑃(𝐴ꓵ𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵⎸𝐴) = , provided P(A) > 0.
𝑃 (𝐴 )

Example 5: One of these individuals is selected at random for a tour throughout the country, what is
the probability that the selected individual is an employed male.

Employed Unemployed Total

Male 460 40 500
Female 140 260 400
Total 600 300 900

Solution:
Let M = a male is chosen, E = employed is chosen
600 𝟐 460 𝟐𝟑
𝑃 (𝐸 ) = = 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝐸ꓵ𝑀) = =
900 𝟑 900 𝟒𝟓

Then,
25/3 𝟐𝟑
𝑃(𝑀⎸𝐸) = =
2/3 𝟑𝟎

Or by using a reduced sample space

460 𝟐𝟑
𝑃(𝑀⎸𝐸) = =
600 𝟑𝟎

Independent Events
Two events A and B are independent if the occurrence of A had no impact on the odds of
occurrence B.

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EN MATH 4 – Engineering Data Analysis
 Republic of the Philippines
CAMARINES NORTE STATE COLLEGE
F. Pimentel Avenue, Brgy. 2, Daet, Camarines Norte – 4600, Philippines

College of Engineering
Multiplicative Rule
To obtain the probability that two independent events will both occurs, we simply find the
product of their individual probabilities.
𝑃(𝐴ꓵ𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵)

Example 6: A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance available for emergencies. The
probability that the fire engine is available when needed is 0.98, and the probability that the
ambulance is available when called is 0.92. In the event of an injury resulting from a burning building.
Find the probability that both the ambulance and the fire engine will be available, assuming they
operate independently.

Solution:
Let A = fire engine, B = ambulance
𝑃(𝐴ꓵ𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵) = 0.98 𝑥 0.92 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟎𝟏𝟔

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EN MATH 4 – Engineering Data Analysis