Bangladesh Economy After the Covid-19

Attack
[A forecasting Analysis]
Introduction:
Covid-19 which is now a global pandemic began in late December
with only a dozen cases in Wuhan, China. At first it was thought as only china’s
problem but now it has become a global concern. Eventually Covid 19, is spreading
far and wide, making passings and significant interruption the worldwide economy.
And this pandemic has squeezed the worldwide economy so in Bangladesh.
Let’s start with the virus Covid-19 first. Covid 19 is a infectious disease caused by a
newly discovered corona virus. The whole family of corona virus are named corona,
because corona means crown and so this refers to the way that the virus look like.
Recently coronavirus is getting lot of attention. Because it haven’t seen among
human before. The theory is it may have jumped from animal species into the
human population then it’s begun spreading. A seafood market in Wuhan, Beijing
is the first covid 19 case ever found. soon it spread far and wide in the world. And
after few weeks it was declared as a worldwide pandemic by WHO. Few days later
Bangladesh became its victim too.
Couple of months ago, people of Bangladesh were living peacefully, travelling
freely, doing their jobs perfectly, the economic growth projections were cheery and
the financial market were tolerable. Yet the novel coronavirus or Covid-19 has
brought a dramatic slowdown in the general way of life style and economy of the
world where Bangladesh became a victim too. The exponential spread of the virus
and its effect clarify that it can possibly wreck the economy. Since the attack of this
virus Bangladesh is very recently identified cases slowly. Bangladesh detected its
first coronavirus case on 8 March. As of this writing, the number of confirmed cases
in Bangladesh is more than 15,000, and the virus has claimed 228 lives. Day by day
it become an economical shock for this country.
The pandemic become a world wide problem where the giant economies like US,
China, Japan even EU (European Union) are in a great shock. They lose almost 40%
of their economy because of this. As a consequence Bangladesh is also going to face
a great shock and slow growth in its economy. Even it will come to the worse. Asian
Development Bank predicted that Bangladesh will lose approximately $3 billion in
its GDP and there will be job cuts for around 9 million people. So this pandemic is
not just a lite word in economy. And now it is a matter of fact that how far it can
go?
Research methodology
Methodology is an important part in any study since it gives the
procedures through which the study has been implemented. Different research
problems imply different research goals, which in turn call for various methods.
This study has been carried out to find out the actual condition of Bangladesh’s
economy after the covid-19 attack and this is a forecasting analysis. In order to
complete this thesis mainly secondary data is used. For this matter, various
published thesis articles, journals, and leaflets were time to time analyzed. Beside
the secondary data, telephone interview, online discussion with some experts in
the economic sector and with some faculty members of BSMRMU is used as
primary sources. By this survey based interview the author tried to identify the
actual past and present economic condition of Bangladesh. These studies have
underlined the economic condition of Bangladesh after the Covid-19 attack.
1. Nature of the research
To evaluate the economic impact in Bangladesh after the Covid-19 attack the study
took an empirical approach. Both qualitative and quantitative data was collected
and analyzed for the purpose of this research.
2. Level of research and research design
The level of research design in this study is descriptive survey research. Here
descriptive survey research was designed because this could deliver opportunity to
researcher to submit his own perspective about the impact of Covid-19 on the
economy of Bangladesh. Qualitative and quantitative research design of the study
to enable researcher to gain data from the existing sources and interviews on this
subject for analysis.
3. Data source
Primary data gathered from online discussion with some experts in the economic
sector & telephone interview, and secondary data available on articles, journals,
news, internet websites, newspapers, service papers, annual reports and so on.
4. Data collection procedure
a) Survey method:
Primary research has been designed to conduct a survey with the sample. A close
ended questionnaire including a bit open ended unstructured questions was
designed addressing the subject matters. Initially the questionnaire has been pre-
tested. After trial, it was found some questions are to be modified and some
questions were added to gather relevant information. A full set of revised
questionnaires was served to each sample for conducting survey through personal
interview or e-mail.
b) Quantitative and Qualitative data collection method:
Online interview was carried out with some concerned personnel. Personal
interaction was not possible because of Covid-19 attack and interpretations are
incorporated in the paper.
c) Document study:
Various publications on impact of “Covid-19 attack” on economy were utilized to
gather secondary data. Special focus was given to use the primary document where
the author himself carried out the study. Similarly, various published and
unpublished reports, journals, books, websites, bulletins were used gather
secondary information.

d) Content analysis:
Literature review and library references frequently used to collect information
regarding the results of various studies, research etc. on impact of Covid-19 attack
on the economy of Bangladesh and the common problem areas.
5. Data analysis
Gathered data is analyzed and interpreted for further use. The information
collected from various methods was categorized basing on the objective of the
study. Various qualitative and quantitative analysis were carried out for the
research.
6. Methods of data presentation
Evaluated data exist in a descriptive and analytical form. In certain cases, they are
translated into tables, figures and graphs for clearness.
7. Limitation of the study
To evaluate direct, indirect and induce impact of Covid-19 attack in economy is a
difficult work which is almost impossible to carry out the actual condition of the
 economy. There is no proper system for this kind of information collection and
preservation in Bangladesh. The research was undertaken with the following
limitations:
a) Accurate data regarding current situation.
b) Information, document collection and review are the primary basis for this
research.
c) The sample size and survey interviews was limited.
d) Lack of opportunity to conduct field work because of Covid-19 attack.
e) Up-to-date information might not be provided.
Literature Review
The review observed with the existing evidence of epidemic and financial crisis
throughout the history, with a major focus on impact of epidemic on economy.[1
]From the embryonic stage of mankind epidemic has impacted different sector
growth and caused crisis .Financial catastrophe also crashed some sectors in the
past chronicles. Although after huge losses economic conditions in different arena
of world was recovered with different strategies .

SARS(Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) ,appeared in 2002 and was first

epidemic of 21st century which only lasted eight months [1 ] .Some sector severely
affected by the virus .Social distancing and lock down concept was still there and
people also faced financial difficulties. They only both demanded daily food
products that lead to downward in agricultural production. Manufacturing industry
has acutely hampered at that time .In Dongguan in Guangzhou province which was
reported as epicenter of the virus shipment decreased almost in one -third during
pandemic.[ 2] In the worldwide tourism , health expenditure distressed overall
economic condition .

Another financial crisis stroked in history that’s Great Depression in 1929 which
devastated U.S. economy.[3] That happened due to stock market crash .That crisis
increased unemployment up to 25% .Worldwide that lasted 10 years.[3] Farmer at
that time lose their firm and for over cultivation and drought created Dust bowl .So
agriculture sector was severely hampered. Other than that automobile industry
and product that are not durable was hinder that time .

At the time of SARS pandemic world didn’t suffer much of global recession. China’s
share to the world smaller in the early 2000s and pandemic lasted little time . Yet
it created huge loss .China established national SARS task force to prevent more
escalation of the virus .[ 2]The capital outflow and trade surplus saved economy
partially at that time .In the case of Great Depression Franklin Roosevelt introduced
Keynesians economic model and signed deal into law of designing new jobs,
allowing uniozation ,providing unemployment insurance. That aided recession a lot
.Some scholar state that in the time of world war II military demand stimulated the
metal working trades ,vehicle production, aircraft manufacturing, chemical and
petroleum industries that helped in rising automobile sector.[4]

At present time corona virus impact on economy is very different from the past
consequences. For Covid-19 social distancing, lock down concept has come once
again .that effecting tourism ,transportation ,food demand ,shipping, freight rate
etc all over the world .In Bangladesh impact is visible economically. Bangladesh
now has most trade portion with China which is the epicenter of the Covid -19 virus.
One of the first things come to mind when talking of connection between global
market and Bangladesh is RMG (Ready Made Garments). So many order has been
cancelled from China , Italy, Germany .So this sector is in vulnerable condition.
Supply chain of food is facing problems . Agriculture sector is at risk due to
lockdown situation and for asymmetric condition of food supply . Besides to look
in history pandemic of SARS and Great Depression economy was different and their
impact too .But some sector is in risk alike the past chronicles and financial crisis is
still there to be faced .