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In this guide, you’ll find a list of useful mental models and their short
explanations.

I’ve also added article links in case you’d like to know more about a specific
idea.

It’s a concise guide and takes around 5 minutes to read.

I promise you’ll get a good return on your 5-min investment.

Let’s start.

Ozan
Founder - Frontera

Frontera
Website: Fronterablog.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Fronterablog
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fronterablog/
Contact: hello@fronterablog.com
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1. Input Goals
Most goals we set are output goals, based on outcomes (becoming a
millionaire, increasing revenue, or getting a six-pack).

But the outcomes are never under our control.

Focus on input goals to achieve your goals.

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2. Framing Effect
The framing effect is one of the most effective tools in public relations and
marketing.

People react differently to the same event, product, or price depending on

different frames. 10% death risk from a surgery sounds scary, while a 90%
success rate sounds safe.

That means you can always persuade people if you use the right frame.

You write short articles? Highlight how concise they are.

You write long ones? Tell them how deep you go into a topic.
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3. Talent Stacking
Talent stacking is increasing your chances of success by becoming good at
many skills, rather than trying to become the best at one.

Because becoming the best at one thing is almost impossible. Think about
Olympic athletes.

But by becoming good at different skills, you can increase your chances of
being the best in the world.

One example is Alexandra Botez. She is a good chess player, entertainer, and
social media creator. She is not the best at any of them.

And her unique talent stack made her the best chess streamer in the world.
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4. Via Negativa
It means “The Negative Way” in Latin. Or as Nassim Taleb puts it solution
through subtraction.

Instead of looking for things to add to a system, a project, or your life, you
look for things to cut.

It was Steve Jobs’s favorite mental model.

When he returned to Apple as CEO, he killed dozens of existing products

before creating a new one. And focused the company on what it does best. He
even used it in design by removing everything unnecessary from devices (e.g.
removing the keyboard with iPhone).

So think about if you can solve a problem by cutting things out. Instead of
throwing more resources and making things worse.
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5. Uncertainty Matrix
There are four levels of uncertainty. The uncertainty matrix allows you to
differentiate them; so you deal with uncertainty better.

1. Known knowns: When you know something and you are aware that you
know it. If you have a product that sells a lot, you know there is demand
for it.
2. Unknown knowns: Hidden knowledge. You might know how to
manage people well and not be aware of it. Or a business might have
useful data on customers’ behavior but never turned it into insights.
3. Known unknowns: Risks you are aware of. If you leave home during
rush hour, you are aware of the risk of traffic and being late. If you start
a business, you expect some competitors to copy you.
4. Unknown unknowns: Risks you don’t know exist. The real risk. These
can cause you the most harm as they catch you unprepared.
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6. RICE Scoring
RICE Scores are useful to compare and prioritize projects (or features) for your
business.

RICE stands for reach, impact, confidence, and effort:

Reach: How many people, leads, or customers the project will reach
Impact: What’s the impact of the project on your goal
Confidence: Chances of getting the impact
Effort: The cost (time and money) of the project

Use the formula below to calculate each project’s RICE score. The higher the
score, the better the project.
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7. The Law Of Diminishing Returns

The law of diminishing returns is a concept from economics that indicates
after a certain point, increasing only one input starts producing fewer returns.

Henry Ford realized this with work hours. He improved the productivity of
Ford workers by reducing the weekly work hours from 48 to 40.

So after an optimal point, adding more time, money, or resources to a

problem doesn’t give you the same benefit.
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8. Hindsight Bias
After we know how things turned out, our minds ignore all other possibilities
and explain the past as it was inevitable.

The danger with Hindsight Bias is its impact on your future decisions. It
creates false confidence.

People think if it’s so easy to explain all past events they can also predict the
future.

To avoid it, be aware that the future is unpredictable and full of surprises.
Instead of trying to predict, prepare.
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9. Blitzkrieg
German war tactic from the second world war.

Most people relate it to speed, but it’s only one aspect. The key is to
concentrate all your forces on a single weak point of the enemy.

It’s a useful business tactic to beat bigger competitors.

Startups manage to beat corporates with unlimited budgets by channeling all

their strength on one point. A recent example is Figma vs Adobe.
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10. Inverse Thinking

When options are broad, making the right decision is hard. Inverse thinking
makes it easier by avoiding the negative.

So instead of: “What should I do to make my business successful?”

Ask: “What things would make my business miserable?”

And avoid them.

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11. Luck Surface Area

Imagine lucky events as random arrows flying around. They are like Eros’
arrows; you want to get hit.

The best way to get hit by a random arrow is to increase the surface area of the
target — in this case, your luck surface area. The bigger the surface, the more
chances you have to get lucky.

So to get lucky, take luck as an improvable skill:

- Meet new people regularly, allow serendipity
- Market yourself and your work. Not only do but also tell.
- Build a personal brand (become known for something)
- Follow your curiosity to build deep knowledge in different topics, so you
can identify opportunities
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12. A-B-Z Framework

Having a long-term goal is good.

But it might be overwhelming when you start thinking about how to get there.

The A-B-Z Framework makes it easier: Assess where you are (A), set your
direction (Z), and decide on your immediate next step (B). Take that action.

Idea Credit: Shaan Puri

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13. Personal SWOT Analysis

SWOT Analysis is a tool that executives use to have situational awareness of
their companies.

It stands for strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.

Personal SWOT analysis makes you reflect on your life as you haven’t done
before.

So you can find the best path for yourself.

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14. Commitment Bias

Your mind tries to be consistent with your past actions and words.

So people get stuck with ideas, investments, or business decisions that don’t
make sense anymore.

Only because they had committed to them with their money, effort, or words.
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15. The Power Laws

Everybody knows the 80/20 rule.

Yet nobody reflects on its impact on our lives:

20% of the people in your life cause 80% of the stress.

20% of your investments bring 80% of the returns.
20% of your tasks create 80% of the value.

So if it’s a positive outcome activity (investments, productivity) focus on that

20%. Ignore the rest to save resources.

And if it’s negative (causes of stress, or bad health) cut that 20% first.

16. The Eisenhower Matrix

President Eisenhower had a method to use 24 hours most effectively which
was later called after his name: Eisenhower Matrix.

It’s a simple matrix that allows you to make a distinction between what is
urgent and important.

Urgent tasks require your immediate action. Important tasks are the ones you
need to do to achieve your goals.
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17. Survivorship Bias

Success is loud. But failure is silent.

So we pay attention to winners. And forget about losers.

Survivorship bias is dangerous because it distorts our reality and creates the
impression that success is easily achievable. Whether it’s a new business
venture or an investment.

Look for silent evidence (data from failures) to avoid it.

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18. Regret Minimization Framework

Jeff Bezos’ mental model to make big life decisions.

Before quitting his lucrative Wall Street job and founding Amazon he
projected himself as 80 years old.

Would his old self regret not joining the internet wave and selling books
online?

After framing the decision this way, he clearly saw his path. He quit his job
and became one of the early adopters of the internet.
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19. Parkinson’s Law

Projects expand to fill the time available for their completion.

So even if the project with a two-week deadline could be finished in three

days, you’d still tend to use all the time you have.

And the additional time you spend wouldn’t even improve the quality of the
work.

Hence, people waste a lot of time and effort –without realizing it– to get the
same outcomes.
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20. The Lindy Effect

As we get older, we have less time to live.

But ideas don’t have a lifespan. According to The Lindy Effect, the older an
idea, a technology or a company gets, the longer it will live in the future.

It’s aging in reverse.

Some examples are the wheel (technology), Sun Tzu (ideas), and Coca-Cola
(company). So if you’d like to know what will survive in the future, look at the
past to see what survived the longest.
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Now What?
“When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change.”
— Wayne Dyer

As I promised at the beginning, I hope you’ve taken away at least five useful
ideas from this guide.

If you did, I’m glad.

Mental models are powerful tools. And if you use your learnings, you’ll
become more effective in business and life.

Now, as you might have seen I’ve made a launch on Product Hunt today.

While I’m writing about new mental models to send your way, I’d love to get
your support and feedback there: