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The Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC) is a diverse, international group of scientists, engineers,
technologists, and public policy experts active in relevant fields spanning all aspects of climate change.
We are united by a determined and informed optimism that a three-pronged approach can moderate and
prevent climate catastrophes and restore a more benevolent climate while lowering planetary average
temperature increase to well below 1°C (1.8°F). We call this approach “The Climate Triad.”
Climate change-induced weather extremes that are largely unforeseen, unprecedented and catastrophic
are pummeling our planet. At the same time, the world community’s three-decade effort to address the
climate crisis by reducing emissions falls further behind each year. The accumulated and ever-increasing
levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases mean that even accelerated emission reduction and removal
cannot prevent relentless temperature increase for decades to come.
Even if net-zero emissions were somehow achieved by midcentury, the legacy of greenhouse gases
emitted over the last two centuries will cause warming and climate havoc to persist or worsen. The
catastrophes the world is already experiencing at a temperature increase of 1.2°C are increasingly beyond
humanity's ability to adapt.
Removing and reducing greenhouse gas emissions are essential but will take decades for a significant
moderating effect on climate change to be realized.
Yet there are highly promising interventions that, along with emission reduction and removal, that can
likely slow and ultimately reverse climate change. These unfortunately are not receiving necessary
attention from world leaders.
HPAC has concluded that The Climate Triad is highly likely to reduce average global temperature increases
to well under 1°C through a strategy that encompasses emission reductions, large-scale greenhouse gas
removal, and most urgently, direct cooling of the climate, particularly in the Arctic and polar regions. This
complementary strategy – if initiated and ramped up in this decade and carried out at sufficient scale and
speed - can restore a healthy climate and regenerate ecosystems before the end of the century. This
requires urgent development and implementation by the international community of an equitable, triad-
based climate restoration plan.
The triad-based approach is a significant departure from the singular strategy global leadership has
embraced to date. But the failure of the “emissions reduction only” approach cannot be denied. HPAC is
not alone in this recognition. Several prestigious organizations are now reporting or further examining
the need and potential for direct climate cooling to restore a healthy planet.
A variety of approaches have potential to begin directly cooling the climate over a matter of years or even
months. These must be urgently researched, tested and deployed. Doing so will provide relief in the
short-term and the time needed for greenhouse gas emissions reduction and removal to scale up and take
effect over the long-term. This earlier stabilization of the climate will reduce loss of lives, livelihoods,
infrastructure, and ecosystems throughout the world.
Pursuing an equitable approach to restoring a benevolent climate also requires a robust program of
adaptation and restitution for loss and damage supported by the countries most responsible for legacy
and current emissions. These countries have abundant capacity for providing needed financial and
technical support to vulnerable populations that have suffered the most but contributed the least to
climate change.
We propose that the world community focus its attention for the next two years on inclusively,
objectively and urgently evaluating the Climate Triad to identify climate change solutions with the
greatest potential and least risk.
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The most urgent priority would be cooling the Arctic and polar regions where temperatures are increasing
up to four times faster than the global average. Higher temperatures, glacier melting and loss of seasonal
ice are raising sea levels, disrupting ocean currents, and leading to frequent and severe extreme weather
events globally. Lowering temperatures would benefit indigenous populations as well as populations
around the world.
The results of the Triad analysis would inform the ratification of a Climate Restoration Plan in 2024 and
set a course for vigorous and complementary implementation of measures that “cool, reduce, and
remove” to restore a healthy planet.
We anticipate that implementation of a Climate Triad-based Climate Restoration Plan will lead to the
moderation of global temperature increases by the late 2020s, global average temperature increases
reduced to below 1° by midcentury and the climate restored and ecosystems regenerated before the end
of the century.
Please read the full “Vision for a Healthy Climate” and join our campaign to restore a healthy climate
before the end of the century.
For more information see https://www.healthyplanetaction.org/ or contact us at
healthyplanetaction@gmail.com.
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Introduction
The Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC) is a diverse, international group of scientists, engineers,
technologists, and public policy experts active in relevant fields spanning all aspects of climate
change.
We are united by a determined and informed optimism that a threefold approach can prevent
climate catastrophes and restore a more benevolent climate while lowering planetary average
temperature increase to well below 1°C (1.8°F). We call this approach “The Climate Triad.”
The Climate Triad of Direct Climate Cooling (DCC), GHG Emissions Reduction, and Greenhouse Gas
Removal (GHGR) would work as a complementary system to stabilize and moderate the climate and
ultimately restore a safe, healthy, and sustainable planet. Integrating these three equally important
elements of the Triad into a workable and equitable climate strategy would be a significant departure
from the current global strategy that emphasizes emissions reduction supported with GHGR offsets
alone.
GHG reduction and GHGR are likely not enough to achieve the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global
average temperature increase to 2.0°C (3.6°F), let alone the more ambitious goal of 1.5°C (2.7°F) in
this century. More importantly, decarbonizing will do little in the short term to moderate the
intensity of climate catastrophes the world is experiencing right now at 1.2°C (2.16°F) of warming
while GHG emissions and temperatures continue to rise. Many harmful consequences of
overshooting 1.5°C of warming, even temporarily, are not easily reversible, and the level of suffering
and destruction to people, ecosystems, and economies would dwarf even the most aggressive
adaptation measures.
For populations that continue to experience the greatest risk, limiting temperature rise to well below
1°C with much of the cost paid for by the countries most responsible for GHG emissions would be
both equitable and just. Meeting the needs of populations that have suffered the most but
contributed the least to climate change is a matter of climate justice.
The Climate Triad would be strategically implemented through an internationally developed Climate
Restoration Plan (CRP). The plan would include a robust program of adaptation and restitution
advancing recovery and resilience of the world’s most vulnerable and disadvantaged countries and
communities.
Our assertion that the Climate Triad can return the planet to a benevolent and sustainable state is a
bold claim. We would not make this claim if we were not confident that it is clearly necessary, and
attainable.
HPAC understands that The Climate Triad-based approach we recommend departs from the 30 years
of established policy developed and ratified by the world community.
We aim to open the eyes, minds, and hearts of government leaders, stakeholders, and people
everywhere to the urgent need and real opportunity for putting the Climate Triad to work this decade
to restore a benevolent climate and thriving ecosystems in this century.
This is our call to action for COP27 and all world leaders!
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This document summarizes the reasoning underlying our firm hope and conviction that world leaders
can and must move beyond the thinking that informed the Paris Accord in order to create a realistic,
feasible, effective, and just Climate Restoration Plan.
HPAC is heartened that a number of credible and prestigious organizations have recently advocated
all or part of the approach we describe in this paper. The American Meteorological Society, the
Council on Foreign Relations, the Centre for Climate Repair at Cambridge University, the Climate
Overshoot Commission, and the US National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine agree
on the need to research direct climate cooling.
The US Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2022 directed the White House Office of Science and
Technology Policy, in coordination with relevant Federal agencies, to develop a five-year “scientific
assessment of solar and other rapid climate interventions in the context of near-term climate risks
and hazards.” This effort and the work of the Climate Overshoot Commission are intended to
proceed in collaboration with the international community and should align with the comprehensive
Climate Restoration Plan we propose.
Join with us in advancing The Climate Triad as we work to restore a safe climate and
a healthy planet!
We welcome and encourage participation in HPAC through our online discussion group and our
committees. We meet online and frequently host world-leading experts for discussions on direct
climate cooling, GHGR, global governance, emissions reduction, equity, and other cutting-edge issues.
HPAC would also be happy to arrange a general and/or a specialized briefing on a particular topic or
technology for you and/or your organization.
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Restoring Climate and Ecosystem Health
Experts agree, the world’s intertwined climate and ecological crisis is largely human caused.
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are trapping an increasing share of the sun's heat in the
atmosphere. Land development, agriculture, and deforestation generate about a quarter of
anthropogenic GHG emissions, but petroleum, coal, and natural gas combustion are the primary
source. Ongoing GHG emissions result in increasing atmosphere and ocean temperatures, more
intense precipitation and droughts, and accelerating sea level rise as polar ice sheets, permafrost, and
glaciers melt away. Temperatures in the Arctic, Antarctica, and the “third pole,” the Himalayas, are
increasing up to four times faster than the rest of the world. The rapid temperature increases are
accelerating feedback processes that are amplifying climate change impacts worldwide.
Tragically, even the most rapid emission reductions would not be enough to prevent further massive
ecosystem collapse, escalating extreme weather events, and severe societal disruption. This is
because long-term average global warming will increase until at least 2050 (see Figure 1), as
projected in even the most optimistic International Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. In the
absence of direct climate cooling, global temperatures will remain elevated well above the level to
achieve a benevolent climate and severe climate destabilization will continue for decades.
Scenario* Best Very Likely Best Very Likely Best Very Likely
Estimate (°C) Range (°C) Estimate (°C) Range (°C) Estimate (°C) Range (°C)
SSP1-1.9 1.5 1.2 to 1.7 1.6 1.2 to 2.0 1.4 1.0 to 1.8
SSP1-2.6 1.5 1.2 to 1.8 1.7 1.3 to 2.2 1.8 1.3 to 2.4
SSP2-4.5 1.5 1.2 to 1.8 2.0 1.6 to 2.5 2.7 2.1 to 3.5
SSP3-7.0 1.5 1.2 to 1.8 2.1 1.7 to 2.6 4.6 2.8 to 4.6
SSP5-8.5 1.6 1.2 to 1.9 2.4 1.9 to 3.0 4.4 3.3 to 5.7
Figure 1. Based on the assessment of multiple lines of evidence, global warming of 2°C relative to 1850–1900, would be
exceeded for several decades during the 21st century under the high and very high GHG emissions scenarios considered
in the IPCC AR6 WGI Summary for Policy Makers. Crossing the 2°C global warming level in the mid-term period (2041–
2060) is very likely (i.e., likelihood greater than 9 in 10) to occur under the very high GHG emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5),
likely (i.e., likelihood greater than 2 out of 3) to occur under the high GHG emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0), and more likely
than not to occur in the intermediate GHG emission scenario (SSP2-4.5). Source: B1.2 Data IPCC AR6 WGI Summary for
Policy Makers. Pp. 12, 13
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An unprecedented, worldwide collaborative effort is needed to avert the incalculable dangers of a
planetary climate that continues to warm. These dangers include widespread famine, military
conflict, economic collapse, ever more extreme weather, biodiversity loss, an accelerating rate of sea
level rise, and overshoot of tipping points. As shown in the diagram below, the latest scientific reports
indicate that dangerous tipping points may already have been crossed with our current level of
warming, creating extreme risk of accelerating feedback processes that will increase the overall
warming rate even further.
A wider array of remedies deployed with sufficient speed and scale to stabilize and reverse excess
heating has the potential to prevent the deaths of countless humans and other species and begin
healing the ecosystems upon which all life depends.
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The Climate Triad
Even aggressive GHG emissions reduction and GHGR could not begin to moderate global temperature
until the latter half of this century. This lag time is due to the committed warming from the vast
quantities of legacy emissions that must be removed and the massive transformation of land use and
global energy and supply chain systems required.
Devastation of populations, communities, and ecosystems is projected to continue at an indefensible
rate into the 22nd Century if current global policy remains unchanged. The havoc wreaked today
with the world's average temperature increase between 1.1°C and 1.3°C is already unacceptable.
Fortunately, directly cooling the climate by increasing the Earth's reflectivity, could begin, in a matter
of months, to slow relentless temperature increases, ecosystem degeneration, and more frequent
and severe extreme weather events.
DCC in the short term will allow GHG emission reduction and GHGR to take effect over the longer
term. This complementary approach of the Climate Triad will, in the coming decades, stabilize the
climate and support restoration of world ecosystems to a safe and sustainable state.
Broad recognition of the need to implement the Climate Triad by governments, entrepreneurs,
industry and civil society is essential. Such recognition can mobilize the innovation and investment
required to identify, expand, lower costs, and optimize the most effective portfolio of methods to
safely reverse climate change at low cost.
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Efforts to forestall these trends could include a number of direct climate cooling techniques. These
new technologies, all still at the concept and modeling stage, could reduce climate disruption,
prevent the acceleration of feedback loops, and combine with emission reductions and GHGR to
gradually restore a healthy climate.
Potential DCC techniques include marine cloud brightening, water cycles and ecosystems restoration,
sea-ice freezing, ocean thermal energy conversion, stratospheric aerosol injection, sea ice and glacial
ice brightening with microspheres or other materials, terrestrial and atmospheric mirrors, cirrus cloud
thinning, iron salt aerosols, seawater atomization, buoyant flakes, nanobubbles, and white reflective
rooftops and streets.
The infrastructure and energy demands of DCC are relatively modest compared to GHG reduction and
removal. DCC implementation, on the other hand, can deliver significant cooling in years rather than
the decades-long timescale for GHG-based cooling methods, while forestalling the risk of tipping
points that could overwhelm emission reduction efforts.
The concept of direct large-scale climate intervention - DCC - can be unsettling. We recognize and
respect the legitimate concerns associated with direct climate cooling. Yet neither GHG emissions
reduction nor GHGR is capable of advancing at sufficient pace or scale to avoid an unthinkable future
for life on this planet.
Advancing the Climate Triad entails potential risks such as adverse and unevenly distributed impacts,
possible termination effects, inequity, governance challenges, and moral hazard. All risks and
benefits must be fully and fairly assessed and weighed against the consequences of not taking action
before DCC is deployed. However, the planet has reached the point at which relying on emission
reductions alone is in and of itself a moral hazard and poses the greatest risk of all.
Achieving expeditious DCC deployment requires equitably organized, funded and governed research
and development, modeling, controlled field testing, meaningful consultation with affected
populations, continuous monitoring and adjustment as deployment proceeds, and effective off-ramp
protocols. Such a systematic approach would enable the most effective DCC measures with the least
risk to be identified.
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The international community must scale up efforts to reduce and ultimately eliminate greenhouse
gas emissions largely through the transformation of fossil fuel-based- to clean energy-based systems.
Besides slowing the pace of global warming, the deployment of clean energy dramatically improves
health, particularly in the most vulnerable countries, and leads to the development of new industries
and employment opportunities. It will also likely lead to more benign political alignments. In addition,
abundant clean energy is needed to power large-scale GHGR.
Countries signing the Paris Accord agreed to submit GHG emission reduction plans every five years
with increasingly ambitious reduction targets in each successive update. As envisioned, cumulative
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would equal enough cuts to keep global temperatures
from rising above 1.5°C (2.7° F). This ratchet mechanism has not yet worked. The UN Environment
Programme Emissions Gap Report concluded that the promises countries made in their 2021 plan
updates put the world on track for warming of at least 2.7°C (4.86°F).
We ask that COP27 develop protocols that will generate more ambitious GHG emission reduction
targets and more realized progress, including the integration of the Climate Triad and the policies
established by the Climate Restoration Plan we propose.
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Greenhouse Gas Removal (GHGR)
Human activities have led to emissions of more than 2,000 gigatons of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the
atmosphere since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. (A gigaton = one billion metric tons).
Simply reducing new GHG emissions does not mitigate the committed heating effect of these legacy
emissions because warming is due to cumulative emissions over time. Limiting global temperature
rise to well under 1°C (1.8°F) will thus require a considerable portion of these 2000 gigatons to be
removed.
Fortunately, a variety of GHGR techniques are in different stages of development. They vary greatly in
scale, technique, impact, and the resources involved. Several have already been shown to draw
down and sequester CO2. Several more are currently undergoing field testing.
GHGs can be removed by afforestation and reforestation, soil regeneration, blue carbon restoration,
land and sea-based enhanced mineral weathering, soil and product-based biochar, ocean iron
fertilization, ocean alkalinization, kelp-based marine permaculture, restoring natural ocean upwelling
and downwelling restoration, iron salt aerosol dispersion, direct air capture, and various other
methods.
Effectiveness, cost, resource availability, associated impacts, measurement and permanence are
among the critical issues to be assessed for any proposed approach. However, we see vast
opportunities and low risk in developing and deploying a portfolio of GHGR methods at a sufficiently
large scale to lower atmospheric GHG concentrations.
The purpose of large-scale GHGR is not just to mop up or offset current emissions that are difficult to
address, which is the current prevailing rationale for GHGR in international policy discussions.
Rather, GHGR must be valued for its long-term contribution to climate cooling and ecosystem
restoration, going beyond net zero to achieve net negative emissions. HPAC proposes accelerating
GHGR development and deployment to bring atmospheric GHG concentrations down to a level that
will, along with DCC and emission reduction, lower planetary temperature increases to well below
1°C (1.8°F) as soon as possible this century.
Achieving this ambitious goal will require an unprecedented, coordinated international mobilization.
HPAC urges that effort begin this year on development of a Climate Restoration Plan (CRP) that
objectively and comprehensively outlines the roles of DCC, GHGR and emission reductions needed to
restore a healthy climate. HPAC’s position is neutral with regard to which specific DCC, GHGR, and
emission reduction measures should ultimately be deployed. Those decisions would be based on the
outcomes of the research and analyses we propose.
Committing to this course of action should be the premier agenda item of COP27 and
other critical policy decision-making bodies.
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Whether the CRP is a detailed technical document or more of a framework not unlike the Paris
climate agreement, it must gain the assent of the world community to have legitimacy and sufficient
support for rapid implementation. An equitable and inclusive CRP will require high-level international
coordination.
The CRP, when fully implemented, must be designed to keep temperature increases to well below
1°C, in stark contrast to the projected 1.4° C - 4.4° C (2.52°F- 7.92°F) or more warming expected this
century. (See Figure 1.)
There is no set of policies and urgently deployed interventions - not even the Climate Triad - that can
fully prevent significant additional suffering, loss of life and further collapse of ecosystems from
climate and ecological breakdown.
Effective and transformative adaptation is universally required to support and sustain societies and to
ensure they have the necessary resources, organizational capacity and stability to realize the full
potential of the Climate Triad over the coming decades. However, the need to address in the near-
term the interests of world communities being disproportionately impacted by, but least responsible
for, climate change has been overlooked for far too long.
Global implementation of the Climate Triad in conjunction with enhanced community resilience,
equitably financed and governed, requires distributing resources from those with the greater capacity
and responsibility for climate change to those with the least.
The nations most responsible for legacy and current GHG emissions have a moral obligation to
finance and support climate restoration through direct transfers and public and private investment.
Vulnerable countries and populations must be fairly represented in designing and overseeing the
variety of Climate Triad-related efforts necessary to restore a safe climate.
We are confident that implementing the CRP at the scale and speed required will, over the coming
decades, enable those who increasingly bear a disproportionate impact of climate devastation to
experience dramatic improvements in economic wellbeing and ecosystem health.
Hope can be restored to billions of people that their futures will - perhaps for the first time in their
lives - be brighter than ever.
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A Timetable for Urgent Action
We recognize that The Climate Triad and CRP approach HPAC envisions dictates an ambitious
timeline, particularly in the early years, in contrast to the slow historic pace of international climate
decision-making. However, we cannot emphasize enough that delay equals failure. That is not an
opinion, it is a fact. We urge international authorities to find ways to expedite each component of this
timetable while still providing for an equitable and inclusive decision-making process.
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Links to References and Resources:
American Meteorological Society https://www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams/about-ams/ams-
statements/statements-of-the-ams-in-force/climate-intervention/
Brookings Institution
https://www.brookings.edu/research/preparing-the-united-states-for-security-and-governance-in-a-
geoengineering-future/
Climate Foundation
https://www.climatefoundation.org/
SilverLining
SilverLining.ngo/
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