Project

Management 2
Aviation Project
Management
B y D r M a s t u r a A b Wa h i d
R e f : Tr i a n t F l o u r i s & D e n n i s
Lock
Work Breakdown Structure
 WBS.. What is it
• This means breaking the project down into
manageable chunks from which work can be
allocated to departmental managers and other
members of the project organization.
• “A work breakdown structure defines all the
things a project needs to accomplish, organized
into multiple levels, and displayed graphically.”

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 Example FR

Level 1

Packages
Work
Breakdown of
Packages
Work
Level 2

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Characteristics of the Work FR
Breakdown Structure
Not every breakdown of project deliverables can be classified as a WBS. For it to be called a
work breakdown structure, it must have certain characteristics:

•Hierarchy: The WBS is hierarchical in nature. Each “child” level exists in a strict hierarchical
relationship with the parent level. The sum of all the child elements should give you the parent
element.
•100% rule: Every level of decomposition must make up 100% of the parent level. It should also
have at least two child elements.
•Mutually exclusive: All elements at a particular level in a WBS must be mutually exclusive.
There must be no overlap in either their deliverables or their work. This is meant to reduce
miscommunication and duplicate work.
•Outcome-focused: The WBS must focus on the result of work, i.e. deliverables, rather than
the activities necessary to get there. Every element should be described via nouns, not verbs..

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Example 2: New Airport Project FR

Describe the component required to be

built to become a terminal building

Describe the components

required to be staff area

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 FR
WBS Coding
Planning the Aviation Project
Timescale
 FR
Gantt Chart
• B a r c h a r t s a re d ra w n to s ca l e , w i t h t h e h o r i zo nta l a x i s
d i re c t l y p ro p o r t i o n a l t o t i m e . D ay s , m o nt h s , y e a rs , o r
o t h e r u n i t s a re u s e d , c h o s e n t o s u i t t h e o v e ra l l
d u ra t i o n o f t h e p ro j e c t .
• Ea c h h o r i zo nta l b a r re p re s e nt s a p ro j e c t ta s k , w i t h i t s
l e n gt h s ca l e d a c co rd i n g to i t s ex p e c ted d u ra t i o n . T h e
n a m e o r d e s c r i pt i o n o f e a c h j o b i s w r i tten o n t h e s a m e
ro w a s i t s b a r, u s u a l l y a t t h e l ef t - h a n d e d g e .
• Henry Gantt (1861 – 1919

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 Example of Project: Electronic control FR
units assembly
• L-F (Lock-Flouris) Controls Inc. is a company that designs and manufactures small
electronic components, particularly for the aviation, defense, and space industries.
It has received an order from an aircraft manufacturer to design and supply
electronic control units that will be mounted in or near the engine bays of a new
range of aircraft to be built in both civil and military versions. This small unit will
contain a small number of electronic components, assembled on a printed circuit
board, which in turn will be supported on an aluminium chassis. This assembly is to
be encapsulated in epoxy resin to protect the components from the harsh
environmental conditions of the engine bay. A cable connector and a pressure
switch will also be mounted on the chassis, to protrude outside the encapsulated
block. The small project described here is for the design and environmental testing
of a small prototype batch. Our project ends with the issue of drawings for
manufacture.

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 Description of Describe the

Example of Project activity duration need to

perform the task
FR

Defines the
immediate task
before that job
dependency

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 Gantt Chart: Example to buy aircraft components

FR
Advantages
• Gantt charts are quite commonly used.
• They provide an easy graphical representation of when activities (might) take
place.
Limitations
• Do not clearly indicate details regarding the progress of activities
• Do not give a clear indication of interrelationship between the separate
activities Originated by H.L.Gantt in 1918

• They are usually difficult to follow when all the links are included and tedious
rearrangement is needed to reduce the number of crossovers. This difficulty
persists even when charts are calculated by a computer.

Critical path network diagrams offer a far better form of notation and they also
provide many other planning advantages
Planning the Aviation Project
Critical Path Method (CPM)
Project Planning using network FR
analysis
CRITITCAL PATH METHOD
1. What is the total time required to complete the
project?
2. What are the start and the completion times for
individual activities?
3. Which critical activities must be completed as
scheduled to meet the estimated project completion
time?
4. How much delay can be tolerated for non-critical
activities without incurring a delay in the estimated
project completion time?
5. What is the least expensive way to speed up a project
to meet a targeted completion time?
 Basic technique of CPM FR
The essential technique for using CPM is to construct a model of the
project that includes the following:
1.A list of all activities required to complete the project
2. The time (duration) that each activity will take to completion,
and
3. The dependencies between the activities
The dependencies include:
1.The availability of labour and other resources
2. Lead times for delivery of materials and other services
3. Seasonal factors – such as winter snow disruption causing delay
Activity-on-Arc vs. Activity-on-Node FR
Network Diagrams
• Two conventions are used in practice for displaying project networks:
(1) Activity-on-Arc (AOA) :
(2) Activity-on-Node (AON). Our previous example used the AOA convention. The characteristics of the two
are:
 AON
• Each activity is represented by a node in the network.
• A precedence relationship between two activities is represented by an arc or link between the
two.
• AON may be less error prone because it does not need dummy activities or arcs.
 AOA
• Each activity is represented by an arrow in the network.
• If activity X must precede activity Y, there are X leads into arc Y. The nodes thus represent
events or “milestones” (e.g., “finished activity X”). Dummy activities of zero length may be
required to properly represent precedence relationships.
• AOA historically has been more popular, perhaps because of its similarity to Gantt charts used
in scheduling
 The Project Network
Activity-on-Arrow
A branch reflects an activity of a project.
A node represents the beginning and end of activities, referred to as events.
Branches in the network indicate precedence relationships.
When an activity is completed at a node, it has been realized.

Event (start
/complete)

Network for Building a House

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The Project Network
Activity-on-Arrow
Time duration of activities shown on branches:

Network for Building a House with Activity Times

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 The Project Network
Activity-on-Arrow : Concurrent Activities
Activities can occur at the same time (concurrently).
A dummy activity shows a precedence relationship but reflects no passage of time.
Two or more activities cannot share the same start and end nodes.

Node Activity Preceded By Duration

A Design house and - 3 months
obtain financing
B Lay Foundation A 2 months
C Order materials A 1 months
D Select Paint C,B 1 months
E Select Carpet D 1 months
F Build House C,B 3 months
G Finish Work E,F 1 months
Expanded Network for Building a House Showing Concurrent Activities

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The Project Network
Paths Through a Network

Paths Through the House-Building Network

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The Project Network
The Critical Path (1 of 2)
The critical path is the longest path through the network; the minimum time the
network can be completed.
Path A: 1  2  3  4  6  7, 3 + 2 + 0 + 3 + 1 = 9 months
Path B: 1  2  3  4  5  6  7, 3 + 2 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 8 months
Path C: 1  2  4  6  7, 3 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 8 months
Path D: 1  2  4  5  6  7, 3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 7 months

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The Project Network
The Critical Path (2 of 2)

Figure 13.6
Alternative Paths in the Network
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The Project Network
Activity Scheduling – Earliest Times
ES is the earliest time an activity can start. ESij = Maximum (EFi)
EF is the earliest start time plus the activity time. EFij = ESij + tij

Earliest Activity Start and Finish Times – forward pass

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The Project Network
Activity Scheduling – Latest Times
LS is the latest time an activity can start without delaying critical
path time. LSij = LFij - tij
LF is the latest finish time. LFij = Minimum (LSj)

Latest Activity Start and Finish Times – Backward pass

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The Project Network
Activity Slack
Slack is the amount of time an activity can be delayed without
delaying the project.
Slack Time exists for those activities not on the critical path for
which the earliest and latest start times are not equal.
Shared Slack is slack available for a sequence of activities.

Earliest and Latest Activity Start and Finish Times

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The Project Network
Calculating Activity Slack Time (1 of 2)
Slack, Sij, computed as follows: Sij = LSij - ESij or Sij = LFij - EFij

Activity Slack

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The Project Network
Calculating Activity Slack Time (2 of 2)

Table 8.2
Activity Slack

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The Project Network
Activity-on-Node (AON)

Activity LST=LFT-t

A
EST EFT EFT=EST+t
Slack=LST+EST or LFT-EFT
t
LST LFT

Activity Duration
Node Activity Preceded By Duration
A Design house and obtain financing - 3 months
B Lay Foundation A 2 months
C Order materials A 1 months
D Select Paint C,B 1 months
E Select Carpet D 1 months
F Build House C,B 3 months
G Finish Work E,F 1 months

C 3 4 E 6 7
1 4 5 1 7 8
D 5 6
1 6 7
G 8 9 Finish
A 0 3
Start 1 8 9
3 0 3 F 5 8

B 3 5 3 5 8
2 3 5

Project Management
List of Activities for the Airport Gate Management FR
System (AGMS) Acquisition Project
 FR

Project management
Advantages and Disadvantages of FR
CPM
Advantages Disadvantages
Reliability of CPM largely based on
Most importantly – helps reduce the
accurate estimates and assumptions
risk and costs of complex projects
made
CPM does not guarantee the success
Encourage careful assessment of the
of a project – still need to manage
requirements of each activity
properly
A decision making tool and planning- Too many activities may the
tool all in one network diagram too complicated
Provide managers with useful
overview of complex project
The Project Management: FR
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

PERT is a sophisticated tool used in planning, scheduling

and controlling large projects consisting of a number of
activities independent of one another and with uncertain
completion times. It is commonly used in research and
development projects.

Project Management
 Probabilistic Activity Times FR
Activity time estimates usually cannot be made with
certainty.
PERT used for probabilistic activity times.
In PERT, three time estimates are used: most likely time
(m), the optimistic time (a) , and the pessimistic time (b).
These provide an estimate of the mean and variance of a
beta distribution:
mean (expected time): t  a  4m  b
6
 2
variance: v   b - a 
 6 

Project Management
34
 Probabilistic Activity Times FR
Example (1 of 3)

A
J
D

B E
K
F I

C
G

Network for Installation Order Processing System

Project Management
35
 Probabilistic Activity Times FR
Example (2 of 3)
t  a  4m  b
6

 2
v b


- a 

 6 


Project Management Activity Time Estimates 36

 Probabilistic Activity Times FR
Example (3 of 3)

Network with Mean Activity Times and Variances

Project Management
37
 Probabilistic Activity Times FR
Earliest and Latest Activity Times and Slack

Earliest and Latest Activity Times

Project Management
38
 Probabilistic Activity Times FR
Earliest and Latest Activity Times and Slack

Activity Earliest and Latest Times and Slack

Project Management
39
 Probabilistic Activity Times FR
Expected Project Time and Variance
The expected project time is the sum of the expected times
of the critical path activities.
The project variance is the sum of the variances of the
critical path activities.
The expected project time is assumed to be normally
distributed (based on central limit theorem).
In example, expected project time (tp) and variance (vp)
interpreted as the mean () and variance (2) of a normal
distribution:
Critical Path Activity Variance
 = 25 weeks 13 1
35 1/9
2 = 6.9 weeks 57 16/9
79 4
total 62/9
Project Management
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 Probability Analysis of a Project Network (1 of 2) FR

Using normal distribution, probabilities are determined by

computing number of standard deviations (Z) a value is from
the mean.
Value is used to find corresponding probability in Standard
Normal Distribution Table

Project Management
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 Probability Analysis of a Project Network (2 of 2) FR

Normal Distribution of Network Duration

Project Management
42
 Probability Analysis of a Project Network FR
Example 1 (1 of 2)
Question: what is the probability of completing the project in 30
weeks.Calculate Z;
2 = 6.9  = 2.63
Z = (x-)/  = (30 -25)/2.63 = 1.90
Z value of 1.90 corresponds to probability of .4713 in Table
Probability of completing project in 30 weeks or less: = 0.9713.
The probability to complete within 30days in 97%

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Advantages and Disadvantages of PERT FR
Advantages Disadvantages

1. It compels managers to plan their projects

1. Uncertainly about the estimate of time
critically and analyse all factors affecting the
and resources.
progress of the plan
2. It provides the management a tool for 2. needs a high degree of planning skill and
forecasting the impact of schedule changes greater amount of details which would increase
and be prepared to correct such situations. the cost in time and manpower resources,
3. The PERT time (Te) is based upon 3-way
estimate and hence is the most objective 3. It is not suitable for relatively simple and
time in the light of uncertainties and results repetitive processes such as assembly line work
in greater degree of accuracy in time which are fixed-sequence jobs.
forecasting.
4. It results in improved communication; the
network provides a common ground for
various parties such as designers,
contractors, project managers etc. and they
must all understand each other’s role and
contributions.
 Linear Programming
in Excel
Ref: Introduction to management
Science third edition
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education

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 Method 2: Excel Solver
(Linear Programming)

F
1 3 4
6
A G
5 E 3
4
0 B C 5
Start 8 10 End

D
5
2
Operations -- Prof. Juran 46
 Procedure
• Define Decision Variables
• Define Objective Function
• Define Constraints
• Solver Dialog and Options
• Run Solver
• “Sensitivity” Analysis: Critical Path, Slack
• Extensions:
• Crashing (not too bad)
• PERT (need simulation, not Solver)

Operations -- Prof. Juran 47

 LP Formulation
Decision Variables
We are trying to decide when to begin and end each of the
activities.
Objective
Minimize the total time to complete the project.
Constraints
Each activity has a fixed duration.
There are precedence relationships among the activities.
We cannot go backwards in time.

Operations -- Prof. Juran 48

 Formulation
Decision Variables
Define the nodes to be discrete events. In other words, they occur
at one exact point in time. Our decision variables will be these
points in time.
Define ti to be the time at which node i occurs, and at which time
all activities preceding node i have been completed.
Define t0 to be zero.

Objective
Minimize t5.

Operations -- Prof. Juran 49

 Formulation
Constraints
There is really one basic type of constraint. For each activity
x, let the time of its starting node be represented by tjx and
the time of its ending node be represented by tkx.

Let the duration of activity x be represented as dx.

For every activity x,

t kx  t jx  d x
For every node i,
ti  0

Operations -- Prof. Juran 50

 Solution Methodology
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P
1
2
=G6
3 1
4
5 t0 t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 F
1 3 4
6
6 0 1 1 1 1 1
A G
7 5 E 3
8 4
0 B C 5
9
Start 8 10 End
10
11 t0 t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 D
=SUMPRODUCT($B$6:$G$6,B12:G12)
12 A -1 1 0 0 0 0 1 >= 5 5
13 B 0 -1 1 0 0 0 0 >= 8 2
14 C 0 0 -1 0 1 0 0 >= 10
15 D 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 >= 5
16 E 0 0 -1 1 0 0 0 >= 4
17 F 0 0 0 -1 1 0 0 >= 6
18 G 0 0 0 0 -1 1 0 >= 3

Operations -- Prof. Juran 51

 Solution Methodology
The matrix of zeros, ones, and negative ones (B12:G18)
is a means for setting up the constraints.

The sumproduct functions in H12:H18 calculate the

elapsed time between relevant pairs of nodes,
corresponding to the various activities.

The duration times of the activities are in J12:J18.

Operations -- Prof. Juran 52

Operations -- Prof. Juran 53
 Optimal Solution
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P
1
2
3 26
4 F
1 3 4
5 t0 t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 6

6 0 5 13 17 23 26 A G
5 E 3
7
4
8 0 C 5
B
9 S ta rt 10 End
8
10
11 t0 t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 D
12 A -1 1 0 0 0 0 5 >= 5 5
13 B 0 -1 1 0 0 0 8 >= 8 2
14 C 0 0 -1 0 1 0 10 >= 10
15 D 0 0 -1 0 0 1 13 >= 5
16 E 0 0 -1 1 0 0 4 >= 4
17 F 0 0 0 -1 1 0 6 >= 6
18 G 0 0 0 0 -1 1 3 >= 3

Operations -- Prof. Juran 54

 CPM Jargon
Any activity for which

t kx  t jx  d x

is said to have slack time, the amount of time by

which that activity could be delayed without
affecting the overall completion time of the whole
project. In this example, only activity D has any slack
time (13 – 5 = 8 units of slack time).

Operations -- Prof. Juran 55

 CPM Jargon

Any activity x for which

t kx  t jx  d x
is defined to be a “critical” activity, with zero slack
time.

Operations -- Prof. Juran 56

 Critical Activities: Using the Solver Answer Report

Constraints
Cell Name Cell Value Formula Status Slack
$H$12 A 5 $H$12>=$J$12 Binding 0
$H$13 B 8 $H$13>=$J$13 Binding 0
$H$14 C 10 $H$14>=$J$14 Binding 0
$H$15 D 13 $H$15>=$J$15 Not Binding 8
$H$16 E 4 $H$16>=$J$16 Binding 0
$H$17 F 6 $H$17>=$J$17 Binding 0
$H$18 G 3 $H$18>=$J$18 Binding 0

Operations -- Prof. Juran 57