EPAT Statistics Preparatory Session

30th March 2022

Instructor: Vivek Krishnamoorthy

Objectives:
To acquaint all the participants with frequently used:
·       basic concepts
·       terminology and
·       notations
in statistics before starting with the EPAT lectures.

Key takeaways:
This session will cover the following topics in statistics:
·       Data and its distribution:
§  Frequency distribution
§  Probability distribution

·       Summarizing data through descriptive statistics:

§  Mean/Average/Expected value
§  Variance/Standard deviation
§  Bessel’s correction for calculating sample standard deviation
§  Skewness
§  Kurtosis

·       Introduction to ‘data driven’ decision making with the help of statistics
§  Examples of stock selection using statistical analysis

·       Brief discussion on the normal and t-distributions

§  Standard normal distribution
§  Area under the curve calculations
§  Student’s t-distribution

Note:
Discussion on the following topics is not a part of this session and will be covered at length in the EPAT lectures:
·       Hypothesis testing
·      Advanced probability theory
·      Time series analysis

Pre-requisites:
·       High school level statistics or EPAT stats primer or equivalent material
Typical time series data in finance

Date Stock Crypto

5/29/2019 -0.967% -0.694%
5/30/2019 0.632% -3.926%
5/31/2019 -1.630% 9.000%
6/1/2019 0.000% 11.000%
6/2/2019 0.000% 2.089%
6/3/2019 -3.105% -6.107%
6/4/2019 2.170% 12.000%
6/5/2019 2.168% 1.511%
6/6/2019 1.581% -0.028%
6/7/2019 2.307% 2.837%
6/8/2019 0.000% -1.117%
6/9/2019 0.000% -3.345%
6/10/2019 0.913% 4.062%
6/11/2019 -0.377% -0.908%
6/12/2019 -0.462% 2.752%
6/13/2019 0.731% 18.000%
6/14/2019 0.098% 5.624%
6/15/2019 0.000% 1.663%
6/16/2019 0.000% 14.000%
6/17/2019 0.302% 3.623%
6/18/2019 1.739% -2.560%
6/19/2019 0.392% 2.111%
6/20/2019 0.929% 2.735%
6/21/2019 0.015% 6.480%
6/22/2019 0.000% 5.492%
6/23/2019 0.000% 1.436%
6/24/2019 0.591% 1.435%
6/25/2019 -3.157% 7.082%
6/26/2019 0.375% 10.392%
6/27/2019 0.164% -14.086%
6/28/2019 -0.142% 10.950%
6/29/2019 0.000% -3.610%
6/30/2019 0.000% -9.551%
7/1/2019 1.284% -2.163%
7/2/2019 0.663% 2.065%
7/3/2019 0.644% 10.735%
7/4/2019 0.000% -6.235%
7/5/2019 -0.291% -2.113%
7/6/2019 0.000% 2.096%
7/7/2019 0.000% 2.162%
7/8/2019 -0.073% 7.293%
 7/9/2019 -0.365% 2.343%
7/10/2019 1.019% -3.319%
7/11/2019 0.399% -6.563%
7/12/2019 0.361% 4.026%
7/13/2019 0.000% -3.585%
7/14/2019 0.000% -9.974%
7/15/2019 0.000% 6.231%
7/16/2019 -1.310% -13.010%
7/17/2019 -0.591% 2.281%
7/18/2019 0.110% 10.034%
7/19/2019 0.147% -1.273%
7/20/2019 0.000% 2.245%
7/21/2019 0.000% -1.561%
7/22/2019 1.325% -2.415%
7/23/2019 0.621% -4.277%
7/24/2019 1.027% -0.897%
7/25/2019 -0.377% 1.018%
7/26/2019 0.820% -0.419%
7/27/2019 0.000% -3.978%
7/28/2019 0.000% 0.793%
7/29/2019 -0.219% -0.353%
7/30/2019 -0.482% 0.927%
7/31/2019 -2.907% 4.977%
8/1/2019 1.014% 3.114%
8/2/2019 -0.840% 1.140%
8/3/2019 0.000% 2.886%
8/4/2019 0.000% 1.372%
8/5/2019 -3.426% 7.616%
8/6/2019 1.876% -2.774%
8/7/2019 0.438% 4.041%
8/8/2019 2.669% 0.205%
8/9/2019 -0.850% -0.865%
8/10/2019 0.000% -4.290%
8/11/2019 0.000% 1.493%
8/12/2019 -1.394% -1.223%
8/13/2019 2.069% -4.277%
8/14/2019 -3.011% -7.747%
8/15/2019 -0.224% 2.585%
8/16/2019 1.833% 0.609%
8/17/2019 0.000% -1.374%
8/18/2019 0.000% 1.115%
8/19/2019 1.675% 5.512%
8/20/2019 -0.831% -1.400%
8/21/2019 1.115% -5.809%
8/22/2019 -0.728% -0.069%
8/23/2019 -3.186% 2.733%
8/24/2019 0.000% -2.383%
8/25/2019 0.000% -0.211%
8/26/2019 1.544% 2.291%
8/27/2019 0.214% -1.787%
8/28/2019 -0.133% -4.232%
8/29/2019 1.888% -2.504%
8/30/2019 -0.188% 0.925%
8/31/2019 0.000% 0.339%
9/1/2019 0.000% 1.322%
9/2/2019 0.000% 6.034%
9/3/2019 -1.320% 2.675%
9/4/2019 1.169% -0.273%
9/5/2019 1.758% -0.179%
9/6/2019 -0.678% -2.101%
9/7/2019 0.000% 1.584%
9/8/2019 0.000% -0.722%
9/9/2019 -1.136% -1.018%
9/10/2019 -1.047% -2.119%
9/11/2019 0.029% 0.617%
9/12/2019 1.029% 2.277%
9/13/2019 -0.145% -0.476%
9/14/2019 0.000% -0.024%
9/15/2019 0.000% -0.100%
9/16/2019 -0.721% -0.685%
9/17/2019 0.778% -0.346%
9/18/2019 0.822% -0.420%
9/19/2019 1.841% 0.668%
9/20/2019 -1.155% -0.826%
9/21/2019 0.000% -1.590%
9/22/2019 0.000% 0.506%
9/23/2019 -0.215% -3.387%
9/24/2019 -1.265% -11.396%
9/25/2019 1.441% -1.549%
9/26/2019 0.129% -4.336%
9/27/2019 -1.297% 1.637%
9/28/2019 0.000% -0.072%
9/29/2019 0.000% -1.719%
9/30/2019 0.944% 2.341%
10/1/2019 -1.410% 0.596%
10/2/2019 -1.766% 0.596%
10/3/2019 1.211% -1.585%
10/4/2019 1.350% -0.654%
10/5/2019 0.000% -0.663%
10/6/2019 0.000% -2.004%
10/7/2019 -0.724% 3.223%
10/8/2019 -1.057% -0.204%
10/9/2019 1.894% 4.459%
10/10/2019 0.622% -0.108%
10/11/2019 0.417% -3.083%
10/12/2019 0.000% 0.178%
10/13/2019 0.000% -0.187%
10/14/2019 -0.093% 0.645%
10/15/2019 1.448% -2.022%
10/16/2019 -0.819% -1.924%
10/17/2019 -0.513% 0.701%
10/18/2019 -1.632% -1.613%
10/19/2019 0.000% 0.193%
10/20/2019 0.000% 2.923%
10/21/2019 0.742% 0.263%
10/22/2019 -1.488% -2.008%
10/23/2019 0.638% -6.976%
10/24/2019 1.967% -0.282%
10/25/2019 0.565% 15.576%
10/26/2019 0.000% 6.746%
10/27/2019 0.000% 3.318%
10/28/2019 2.459% -3.094%
10/29/2019 -0.943% 1.853%
10/30/2019 1.246% -2.354%
10/31/2019 -0.857% -0.067%
11/1/2019 0.244% 0.669%
11/2/2019 0.000% 0.687%
11/3/2019 0.000% -0.958%
11/4/2019 0.578% 1.919%
11/5/2019 -0.062% -0.745%
11/6/2019 -0.277% 0.196%
11/7/2019 0.139% -0.997%
11/8/2019 1.178% -4.992%
11/9/2019 0.000% 0.099%
11/10/2019 0.000% 2.745%
11/11/2019 0.103% -3.288%
11/12/2019 0.657% 0.661%
11/13/2019 0.163% -0.084%
11/14/2019 0.509% -1.137%
11/15/2019 1.290% -2.482%
11/16/2019 0.000% 0.692%
11/17/2019 0.000% 0.318%
11/18/2019 0.247% -3.132%
11/19/2019 0.033% -1.241%
11/20/2019 -0.173% -2.180%
11/21/2019 -0.094% -4.790%
11/22/2019 0.074% -4.529%
11/23/2019 0.000% 1.387%
11/24/2019 0.000% -4.730%
11/25/2019 1.096% 1.394%
11/26/2019 0.529% 1.011%
11/27/2019 0.191% 4.340%
11/28/2019 0.000% -0.910%
11/29/2019 -0.617% 3.995%
11/30/2019 0.000% -2.469%
12/1/2019 0.000% -1.920%
12/2/2019 -1.209% -1.378%
12/3/2019 -0.160% -0.025%
12/4/2019 0.362% -0.930%
12/5/2019 0.053% 2.706%
12/6/2019 1.214% 1.325%
12/7/2019 0.000% 0.122%
12/8/2019 0.000% 0.107%
12/9/2019 -0.257% -2.161%
12/10/2019 -0.152% -1.659%
12/11/2019 0.377% -0.834%
12/12/2019 1.015% 0.356%
12/13/2019 0.842% 0.367%
12/14/2019 0.000% -1.995%
12/15/2019 0.000% 0.388%
12/16/2019 0.647% -3.073%
12/17/2019 -0.540% -4.212%
12/18/2019 -0.207% 9.582%
12/19/2019 0.868% -1.016%
12/20/2019 1.092% 0.222%
12/21/2019 0.000% -0.383%
12/22/2019 0.000% 4.456%
12/23/2019 0.000% -2.076%
12/24/2019 -0.019% -0.450%
12/25/2019 0.000% -0.647%
12/26/2019 0.820% -0.497%
12/27/2019 0.183% 0.706%
12/28/2019 0.000% 0.383%
12/29/2019 0.000% 1.430%
12/30/2019 -0.862% -1.747%
12/31/2019 0.070% -1.363%
1/1/2020 0.000% 0.091%
1/2/2020 1.852% -2.982%
1/3/2020 -1.245% 5.145%
1/4/2020 0.000% 0.895%
 1/5/2020 0.000% 0.009%
1/6/2020 0.258% 4.829%
1/7/2020 -0.912% 5.077%
1/8/2020 1.593% -1.027%
1/9/2020 1.249% -2.485%
1/10/2020 -0.463% 3.649%
1/11/2020 0.000% -1.580%
1/12/2020 0.000% 1.928%
1/13/2020 1.202% -0.590%
1/14/2020 -0.704% 8.393%
1/15/2020 0.648% -0.235%
1/16/2020 1.832% -0.945%
1/17/2020 0.560% 2.353%
1/18/2020 0.000% 0.154%
1/19/2020 0.000% -2.645%
1/20/2020 0.000% -0.558%
1/21/2020 -0.359% 1.019%
1/22/2020 -0.480% -0.743%
1/23/2020 0.616% -3.161%
1/24/2020 -1.008% 0.463%
1/25/2020 0.000% -0.919%
1/26/2020 0.000% 2.736%
1/27/2020 -1.672% 3.641%
1/28/2020 1.960% 5.037%
1/29/2020 1.559% -0.448%
1/30/2020 2.821% 2.065%
1/31/2020 -1.476% -1.666%
2/1/2020 0.000% 0.453%
2/2/2020 0.000% -0.516%
2/3/2020 2.438% -0.544%
2/4/2020 3.292% -1.211%
2/5/2020 -0.122% 4.710%
2/6/2020 2.073% 1.211%
2/7/2020 0.142% 0.680%
2/8/2020 0.000% 0.706%
2/9/2020 0.000% 2.550%
2/10/2020 2.616% -2.571%
2/11/2020 -2.258% 3.567%
2/12/2020 0.146% 1.154%
2/13/2020 -0.541% -1.081%
2/14/2020 0.893% 0.957%
2/15/2020 0.000% -4.099%
2/16/2020 0.000% 0.455%
2/17/2020 0.000% -2.459%
2/18/2020 1.014% 4.663%
2/19/2020 0.300% -5.015%
2/20/2020 -1.527% -0.259%
2/21/2020 -3.161% 0.811%
2/22/2020 0.000% -0.240%
2/23/2020 0.000% 2.704%
2/24/2020 -4.312% -2.764%
2/25/2020 -1.650% -3.197%
2/26/2020 1.249% -5.579%
2/27/2020 -7.046% -0.408%
2/28/2020 2.421% -1.275%
2/29/2020 0.000% -0.841%
3/1/2020 0.000% -0.431%
3/2/2020 6.654% 3.588%
3/3/2020 -4.792% -0.923%
3/4/2020 3.672% -0.370%
3/5/2020 -2.510% 3.695%
3/6/2020 -2.827% 0.482%
3/7/2020 0.000% -2.330%
3/8/2020 0.000% -8.999%
3/9/2020 -6.777% -2.275%
3/10/2020 6.838% -0.176%
3/11/2020 -4.530% 0.022%
3/12/2020 -9.484% -37.170%
3/13/2020 14.217% 11.928%
3/14/2020 0.000% -6.531%
3/15/2020 0.000% 3.691%
3/16/2020 -14.739% -7.007%
3/17/2020 8.234% 4.211%
3/18/2020 -4.210% 0.245%
3/19/2020 1.645% 18.188%
3/20/2020 -3.756% 0.123%
3/21/2020 0.000% -0.221%
3/22/2020 0.000% -5.737%
3/23/2020 -0.997% 10.052%
3/24/2020 9.090% 4.964%
3/25/2020 -0.957% -0.798%
3/26/2020 6.255% 0.530%
3/27/2020 -4.106% -3.672%
3/28/2020 0.000% -3.518%
3/29/2020 0.000% -5.129%
3/30/2020 7.034% 8.575%
3/31/2020 -1.573% 0.137%
4/1/2020 -3.551% 2.611%
4/2/2020 2.071% 2.828%
4/3/2020 -0.921% -0.887%
 4/4/2020 0.000% 1.992%
4/5/2020 0.000% -1.112%
4/6/2020 7.437% 7.078%
4/7/2020 -1.077% -1.311%
4/8/2020 1.003% 2.197%
4/9/2020 0.006% -0.436%
4/10/2020 0.000% -5.979%
4/11/2020 0.000% -0.093%
4/12/2020 0.000% 1.633%
4/13/2020 0.224% -1.808%
4/14/2020 4.948% -0.038%
4/15/2020 -1.048% -2.928%
4/16/2020 3.002% 7.147%
4/17/2020 0.881% -0.290%
4/18/2020 0.000% 2.276%
4/19/2020 0.000% -0.940%
4/20/2020 -1.982% -4.277%
4/21/2020 -4.136% -0.024%
4/22/2020 3.396% 3.443%
4/23/2020 -1.210% 4.391%
4/24/2020 1.826% 1.631%
4/25/2020 0.000% 0.252%
4/26/2020 0.000% 1.452%
4/27/2020 -0.286% 1.507%
4/28/2020 -2.436% 0.147%
4/29/2020 4.487% 12.732%
4/30/2020 1.003% -1.619%
5/1/2020 -2.589% 2.382%
5/2/2020 0.000% 1.397%
5/3/2020 0.000% -1.014%
5/4/2020 2.446% 0.171%
5/5/2020 1.074% 1.014%
5/6/2020 0.985% 2.951%
5/7/2020 0.581% 7.366%
5/8/2020 0.588% -1.094%
5/9/2020 0.000% -2.527%
5/10/2020 0.000% -8.729%
5/11/2020 1.115% -1.766%
5/12/2020 -2.265% 2.356%
5/13/2020 -1.512% 5.287%
5/14/2020 0.434% 5.003%
5/15/2020 1.457% -4.166%
5/16/2020 0.000% 0.523%
5/17/2020 0.000% 3.132%
5/18/2020 0.955% 20.000%
5/19/2020 -0.692% 15.000%
5/20/2020 1.387% 18.000%
5/21/2020 -1.201% 11.000%
5/22/2020 0.044% 1.110%
5/23/2020 0.000% 0.291%
5/24/2020 0.000% -4.549%
5/25/2020 0.000% 1.326%
5/26/2020 -1.057% -0.807%
5/27/2020 0.132% 3.916%
5/28/2020 -0.226% 3.755%
5/29/2020 1.020% -0.909%
5/30/2020 0.000% 2.768%
5/31/2020 0.000% -2.467%
6/1/2020 -0.229% 7.464%
6/2/2020 1.138% -6.270%
6/3/2020 0.243% 1.332%
6/4/2020 -1.316% -34.900%
6/5/2020 2.340% -1.379%
6/6/2020 0.000% -0.123%
6/7/2020 0.000% -31.000%
6/8/2020 0.620% 0.129%
6/9/2020 0.764% 0.248%
6/10/2020 3.709% -34.000%
6/11/2020 -5.370% -5.555%
6/12/2020 0.789% -20.000%
6/13/2020 0.000% -33.000%
6/14/2020 0.000% -20.000%
6/15/2020 0.639% -22.000%
6/16/2020 2.451% -30.000%
6/17/2020 0.346% 23.000%
6/18/2020 1.071% 18.000%
6/19/2020 -0.596% 15.000%
6/20/2020 0.000% 15.000%
6/21/2020 0.000% 12.000%
6/22/2020 2.777% 3.709%
6/23/2020 0.668% 22.000%
6/24/2020 -2.016% -3.282%
6/25/2020 1.264% -0.524%
6/26/2020 -2.002% -1.100%
6/27/2020 0.000% -1.283%
6/28/2020 0.000% 1.086%
 FREQUENCY D

Month Stock Return(X) Stock Return

Jan 1% -2.0%
Feb 2% -1.0%
Mar -1% 0.0%
Apr 3% 1.0%
May 2% 2.0%
Jun -2% 3.0%
Jul -1% 4.0%
Aug 3% Total
Sep -2%
Oct 1%
Nov 2%
Dec 1%

PROBABILITY D

Month Stock Return(X) Stock Return

Jan 1% -2.0%
Feb 2% -1.0%
Mar -1% 0.0%
Apr 3% 1.0%
May 2% 2.0%
Jun -2% 3.0%
Jul -1% 4.0%
Aug 3% Total
Sep -2%
Oct 1%
Nov 2%
Dec 1%
Simple

TSLA
200
220

Log
FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION OF DATA

Frequency
2 Frequency Distribution/Histogram
2
3.5
0 Frequen
3 3
3
2 2.5

Frequency
0
2
12
1.5

0.5

0
-0.02 -0.01 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04

Stock return values

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF DATA

Probability
0.167 Probability Distribution
0.167
0.300
0.000 Probabil
0.250
0.250
0.250
0.167 0.200
Probability

0.000
1 0.150

0.100

0.050

0.000
Stock Re- -0.02 -0.01 0 0.01 0.02 0.03
turn

Stock return values

 0.000
Stock Re- -0.02 -0.01 0 0.01 0.02 0.03
turn

Stock return values

10%

9.53%

0.09531
togram
Frequency

0.03 0.04

on
Probability

0.02 0.03
0.02 0.03
MEAN or EXPECTED VALUE

X : Random variable (Stock return in this case)

 RAW DATA FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
Month Stock Return(X) Stock Return(X) Frequency
Jan 1% -1% 2
Feb 2% -2% 2
Mar -1% 1% 3
Apr 3% 2% 3
May 2% 3% 2
Jun -2% Total 12
Jul -1%
Aug 3%
Sep -2% 0.75%
Oct 1%
Nov 2%
Dec 1%

0.75%

FROM RAW DATA FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION

0.75% Stock Return(X) Frequency
-1% 2
-2% 2
1% 3
2% 3
3% 2
Total 12
 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Stock Return(X) Probability
-1% 0.167
-2% 0.167
1% 0.250
2% 0.250
3% 0.167
Total 1

0.75%

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
x_i*f_i Stock Return(X) Probability x_i*p_i
-0.02 -1% 0.167 -0.001667
-0.04 -2% 0.167 -0.003333
0.03 1% 0.250 0.0025
0.06 2% 0.250 0.005
0.06 3% 0.167 0.005
0.09 Total 1 0.75%
0.75%
VARIANCE & STANDARD DEVIATION

X : Random variable (Stock return in this case)

From the previous sheet we know that:

E(X) = mean =μ= 0.75%
 RAW DATA
Month Stock Return(X)
Jan 1% 0.2500%
Feb 2% 1.2500%
Mar -1% -1.7500%
Apr 3% 2.2500%
May 2% 1.2500%
Jun -2% -2.7500%
Jul -1% -1.7500%
Aug 3% 2.2500%
Sep -2% -2.7500%
Oct 1% 0.2500%
Nov 2% 1.2500%
Dec 1% 0.2500%

variance

std deviation
 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Stock Return(X) Probability
0.00000625 -1% 0.167
0.00015625 -2% 0.167
0.00030625 1% 0.250
0.00050625 2% 0.250
0.00015625 3% 0.167
0.00075625 Total 1
0.00030625
0.00050625
0.00075625
0.00000625
0.00015625
0.00000625
0.003625
0.0003021

1.738%

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Stock Return(X) Probability(p_i) (x_i-μ) 〖 (x_i−μ
-1% 0.16667 -1.7500% ) 〗 ^20.0306%
-2% 0.16667 -2.75% 0.0756%
1% 0.25000 0.25% 0.0006%
2% 0.25000 1.25% 0.0156%
3% 0.16667 2.25% 0.0506%
Total 1

Variance using Excel's built-in formula 0.03021%

 =

SD using Excel's built-in formula 1.73805%

〖 p_i(x_i−
μ) 〗 ^2
0.00510%
0.01260%
0.00016%
0.00391%
0.00844%
0.03021%
1.738%
POPULATION SD SAMPLE SD WHEN POPULATION MEAN IS KNOWN

SAMPLE SD WHEN POPULATION MEAN IS NOT KNOW

ULATION MEAN IS KNOWN

ATION MEAN IS NOT KNOWN

Most of the time we do not know µ (the population average) and we estimate it with x (the sample average). The
formula for 's' measures the squared deviations from x_bar rather than µ . The xi’s tend to be closer to their
average x rather than µ , so we compensate for this by using the divisor (n-1) rather than n.
 Two cases when calculating sample sta

CASE 1

WHEN 𝐏𝐎𝐏𝐔𝐋𝐀𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐌𝐄𝐀𝐍(𝛍) 𝐢𝐬 𝐊𝐍𝐎𝐖𝐍

n = number of samples = 4
Suppose μ = 5

Xi Xi - 𝝁 (Xi - 𝝁)^2
4 4-5 1
5 5-5 0
3 3-5 4
7 7-5 4

4.75

All four(n) sample values can vary freely

So, we can use:

sample variance = Σ(Xi - μ)^2/n = 9/4 = 2.25

ating sample standard deviation:

CASE 2

𝐖𝐇𝐄𝐍 𝐏𝐎𝐏𝐔𝐋𝐀𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐌𝐄𝐀𝐍(𝛍) 𝐢𝐬 𝐔𝐍𝐊𝐍𝐎𝐖𝐍 (𝐓𝐇𝐈𝐒 𝐈𝐒 𝐔𝐒𝐔𝐀𝐋𝐋𝐘 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐂𝐀𝐒𝐄 )

In this case our best option is to work with the sample mean x̅

n = sample size = 4
Suppose, sample mean = x̅ = 5

Xi Xi - x̅ (Xi - x)̅ ^2
4 4-5 1
5 5-5 0
3 3-5 4
8 8-5 9 The last value HAS to be 8, as the sample mean is fi

Only three(n-1) sample values can vary freely, so we only divide by three when calculating sample varia
So, we can use:

sample variance = Σ(Xi - x̅ )^2/(n-1) =14/3= 4.666667

3.5

In general, the denominator is (n-1) to calculate sample variance, as population mean is usually not kno
This is known as Bessel's correction.
s the sample mean is fixed at 5

lculating sample variance

ean is usually not known to us

Date Stock
5/29/2019 -0.967% Mean ̄̄ 0.1323%
5/30/2019 0.632% 397
5/31/2019 -1.630% Sample Standard deviation 2.0487%
6/1/2019 0.000% Population standard deviation 2.0461%
6/2/2019 0.000%
6/3/2019 -3.105%
6/4/2019 2.170%
6/5/2019 2.168%
6/6/2019 1.581%
6/7/2019 2.307%
6/8/2019 0.000%
6/9/2019 0.000% Frequency Distribution of returns
6/10/2019 0.913%
6/11/2019 -0.377% Returns Frequency
6/12/2019 -0.462% -15% 1 Frequency
6/13/2019 0.731% -13% 0 250
6/14/2019 0.098% -12% 0
6/15/2019 0.000% -10% 0 200
6/16/2019 0.000% -9% 1
6/17/2019 0.302% -7% 0 150
6/18/2019 1.739% -6% 2
6/19/2019 0.392% -4% 7 100
6/20/2019 0.929% -3% 11
6/21/2019 0.015% -1% 35 50

6/22/2019 0.000% 1% 220

6/23/2019 0.000% 2% 89 0
- - - - -9% -7% -6% -4% -3%
6/24/2019 0.591% 4% 19 15% 13% 12% 10%

6/25/2019 -3.157% 5% 4
6/26/2019 0.375% 7% 1
6/27/2019 0.164% 8% 4
6/28/2019 -0.142% 10% 2
6/29/2019 0.000% 11% 0
6/30/2019 0.000% 13% 0
7/1/2019 1.284% 15% 1
7/2/2019 0.663% total 397
7/3/2019 0.644%
7/4/2019 0.000%
7/5/2019 -0.291%
7/6/2019 0.000%
7/7/2019 0.000%
7/8/2019 -0.073% Returns Probability
7/9/2019 -0.365% -15% 0.0025189 Probability
7/10/2019 1.019% -13% 0 0.6
7/11/2019 0.399% -12% 0
0.5

0.4
 Probability
0.6

7/12/2019 0.361% -10% 0 0.5

7/13/2019 0.000% -9% 0.0025189
7/14/2019 0.000% -7% 0 0.4

7/15/2019 0.000% -6% 0.0050378

0.3
7/16/2019 -1.310% -4% 0.0176322
7/17/2019 -0.591% -3% 0.0277078 0.2
7/18/2019 0.110% -1% 0.0881612
7/19/2019 0.147% 1% 0.5541562 0.1
7/20/2019 0.000% 2% 0.2241814
7/21/2019 0.000% 4% 0.0478589 0
-15% -13% -12% -10% -9% -7% -6% -4% -3% -
7/22/2019 1.325% 5% 0.0100756
7/23/2019 0.621% 7% 0.0025189
7/24/2019 1.027% 8% 0.0100756
7/25/2019 -0.377% 10% 0.0050378
7/26/2019 0.820% 11% 0
7/27/2019 0.000% 13% 0
7/28/2019 0.000% 15% 0.0025189
7/29/2019 -0.219% Total 1
7/30/2019 -0.482%
7/31/2019 -2.907%
8/1/2019 1.014%
8/2/2019 -0.840%
8/3/2019 0.000%
8/4/2019 0.000%
8/5/2019 -3.426%
8/6/2019 1.876%
8/7/2019 0.438%
8/8/2019 2.669%
8/9/2019 -0.850%
8/10/2019 0.000%
8/11/2019 0.000%
8/12/2019 -1.394%
8/13/2019 2.069%
8/14/2019 -3.011%
8/15/2019 -0.224%
8/16/2019 1.833%
8/17/2019 0.000%
8/18/2019 0.000%
8/19/2019 1.675%
8/20/2019 -0.831%
8/21/2019 1.115%
8/22/2019 -0.728%
8/23/2019 -3.186%
8/24/2019 0.000%
8/25/2019 0.000%
8/26/2019 1.544%
8/27/2019 0.214%
8/28/2019 -0.133%
8/29/2019 1.888%
8/30/2019 -0.188%
8/31/2019 0.000%
9/1/2019 0.000%
9/2/2019 0.000%
9/3/2019 -1.320%
9/4/2019 1.169%
9/5/2019 1.758%
9/6/2019 -0.678%
9/7/2019 0.000%
9/8/2019 0.000%
9/9/2019 -1.136%
9/10/2019 -1.047%
9/11/2019 0.029%
9/12/2019 1.029%
9/13/2019 -0.145%
9/14/2019 0.000%
9/15/2019 0.000%
9/16/2019 -0.721%
9/17/2019 0.778%
9/18/2019 0.822%
9/19/2019 1.841%
9/20/2019 -1.155%
9/21/2019 0.000%
9/22/2019 0.000%
9/23/2019 -0.215%
9/24/2019 -1.265%
9/25/2019 1.441%
9/26/2019 0.129%
9/27/2019 -1.297%
9/28/2019 0.000%
9/29/2019 0.000%
9/30/2019 0.944%
10/1/2019 -1.410%
10/2/2019 -1.766%
10/3/2019 1.211%
10/4/2019 1.350%
10/5/2019 0.000%
10/6/2019 0.000%
10/7/2019 -0.724%
10/8/2019 -1.057%
10/9/2019 1.894%
10/10/2019 0.622%
10/11/2019 0.417%
10/12/2019 0.000%
10/13/2019 0.000%
10/14/2019 -0.093%
10/15/2019 1.448%
10/16/2019 -0.819%
10/17/2019 -0.513%
10/18/2019 -1.632%
10/19/2019 0.000%
10/20/2019 0.000%
10/21/2019 0.742%
10/22/2019 -1.488%
10/23/2019 0.638%
10/24/2019 1.967%
10/25/2019 0.565%
10/26/2019 0.000%
10/27/2019 0.000%
10/28/2019 2.459%
10/29/2019 -0.943%
10/30/2019 1.246%
10/31/2019 -0.857%
11/1/2019 0.244%
11/2/2019 0.000%
11/3/2019 0.000%
11/4/2019 0.578%
11/5/2019 -0.062%
11/6/2019 -0.277%
11/7/2019 0.139%
11/8/2019 1.178%
11/9/2019 0.000%
11/10/2019 0.000%
11/11/2019 0.103%
11/12/2019 0.657%
11/13/2019 0.163%
11/14/2019 0.509%
11/15/2019 1.290%
11/16/2019 0.000%
11/17/2019 0.000%
11/18/2019 0.247%
11/19/2019 0.033%
11/20/2019 -0.173%
11/21/2019 -0.094%
11/22/2019 0.074%
11/23/2019 0.000%
11/24/2019 0.000%
11/25/2019 1.096%
11/26/2019 0.529%
11/27/2019 0.191%
11/28/2019 0.000%
11/29/2019 -0.617%
11/30/2019 0.000%
12/1/2019 0.000%
12/2/2019 -1.209%
12/3/2019 -0.160%
12/4/2019 0.362%
12/5/2019 0.053%
12/6/2019 1.214%
12/7/2019 0.000%
12/8/2019 0.000%
12/9/2019 -0.257%
12/10/2019 -0.152%
12/11/2019 0.377%
12/12/2019 1.015%
12/13/2019 0.842%
12/14/2019 0.000%
12/15/2019 0.000%
12/16/2019 0.647%
12/17/2019 -0.540%
12/18/2019 -0.207%
12/19/2019 0.868%
12/20/2019 1.092%
12/21/2019 0.000%
12/22/2019 0.000%
12/23/2019 0.000%
12/24/2019 -0.019%
12/25/2019 0.000%
12/26/2019 0.820%
12/27/2019 0.183%
12/28/2019 0.000%
12/29/2019 0.000%
12/30/2019 -0.862%
12/31/2019 0.070%
1/1/2020 0.000%
1/2/2020 1.852%
1/3/2020 -1.245%
1/4/2020 0.000%
1/5/2020 0.000%
1/6/2020 0.258%
1/7/2020 -0.912%
 1/8/2020 1.593%
1/9/2020 1.249%
1/10/2020 -0.463%
1/11/2020 0.000%
1/12/2020 0.000%
1/13/2020 1.202%
1/14/2020 -0.704%
1/15/2020 0.648%
1/16/2020 1.832%
1/17/2020 0.560%
1/18/2020 0.000%
1/19/2020 0.000%
1/20/2020 0.000%
1/21/2020 -0.359%
1/22/2020 -0.480%
1/23/2020 0.616%
1/24/2020 -1.008%
1/25/2020 0.000%
1/26/2020 0.000%
1/27/2020 -1.672%
1/28/2020 1.960%
1/29/2020 1.559%
1/30/2020 2.821%
1/31/2020 -1.476%
2/1/2020 0.000%
2/2/2020 0.000%
2/3/2020 2.438%
2/4/2020 3.292%
2/5/2020 -0.122%
2/6/2020 2.073%
2/7/2020 0.142%
2/8/2020 0.000%
2/9/2020 0.000%
2/10/2020 2.616%
2/11/2020 -2.258%
2/12/2020 0.146%
2/13/2020 -0.541%
2/14/2020 0.893%
2/15/2020 0.000%
2/16/2020 0.000%
2/17/2020 0.000%
2/18/2020 1.014%
2/19/2020 0.300%
2/20/2020 -1.527%
2/21/2020 -3.161%
2/22/2020 0.000%
2/23/2020 0.000%
2/24/2020 -4.312%
2/25/2020 -1.650%
2/26/2020 1.249%
2/27/2020 -7.046%
2/28/2020 2.421%
2/29/2020 0.000%
3/1/2020 0.000%
3/2/2020 6.654%
3/3/2020 -4.792%
3/4/2020 3.672%
3/5/2020 -2.510%
3/6/2020 -2.827%
3/7/2020 0.000%
3/8/2020 0.000%
3/9/2020 -6.777%
3/10/2020 6.838%
3/11/2020 -4.530%
3/12/2020 -9.484%
3/13/2020 14.217%
3/14/2020 0.000%
3/15/2020 0.000%
3/16/2020 -14.739%
3/17/2020 8.234%
3/18/2020 -4.210%
3/19/2020 1.645%
3/20/2020 -3.756%
3/21/2020 0.000%
3/22/2020 0.000%
3/23/2020 -0.997%
3/24/2020 9.090%
3/25/2020 -0.957%
3/26/2020 6.255%
3/27/2020 -4.106%
3/28/2020 0.000%
3/29/2020 0.000%
3/30/2020 7.034%
3/31/2020 -1.573%
4/1/2020 -3.551%
4/2/2020 2.071%
4/3/2020 -0.921%
4/4/2020 0.000%
4/5/2020 0.000%
4/6/2020 7.437%
 4/7/2020 -1.077%
4/8/2020 1.003%
4/9/2020 0.006%
4/10/2020 0.000%
4/11/2020 0.000%
4/12/2020 0.000%
4/13/2020 0.224%
4/14/2020 4.948%
4/15/2020 -1.048%
4/16/2020 3.002%
4/17/2020 0.881%
4/18/2020 0.000%
4/19/2020 0.000%
4/20/2020 -1.982%
4/21/2020 -4.136%
4/22/2020 3.396%
4/23/2020 -1.210%
4/24/2020 1.826%
4/25/2020 0.000%
4/26/2020 0.000%
4/27/2020 -0.286%
4/28/2020 -2.436%
4/29/2020 4.487%
4/30/2020 1.003%
5/1/2020 -2.589%
5/2/2020 0.000%
5/3/2020 0.000%
5/4/2020 2.446%
5/5/2020 1.074%
5/6/2020 0.985%
5/7/2020 0.581%
5/8/2020 0.588%
5/9/2020 0.000%
5/10/2020 0.000%
5/11/2020 1.115%
5/12/2020 -2.265%
5/13/2020 -1.512%
5/14/2020 0.434%
5/15/2020 1.457%
5/16/2020 0.000%
5/17/2020 0.000%
5/18/2020 0.955%
5/19/2020 -0.692%
5/20/2020 1.387%
5/21/2020 -1.201%
5/22/2020 0.044%
5/23/2020 0.000%
5/24/2020 0.000%
5/25/2020 0.000%
5/26/2020 -1.057%
5/27/2020 0.132%
5/28/2020 -0.226%
5/29/2020 1.020%
5/30/2020 0.000%
5/31/2020 0.000%
6/1/2020 -0.229%
6/2/2020 1.138%
6/3/2020 0.243%
6/4/2020 -1.316%
6/5/2020 2.340%
6/6/2020 0.000%
6/7/2020 0.000%
6/8/2020 0.620%
6/9/2020 0.764%
6/10/2020 3.709%
6/11/2020 -5.370%
6/12/2020 0.789%
6/13/2020 0.000%
6/14/2020 0.000%
6/15/2020 0.639%
6/16/2020 2.451%
6/17/2020 0.346%
6/18/2020 1.071%
6/19/2020 -0.596%
6/20/2020 0.000%
6/21/2020 0.000%
6/22/2020 2.777%
6/23/2020 0.668%
6/24/2020 -2.016%
6/25/2020 1.264%
6/26/2020 -2.002%
6/27/2020 0.000%
6/28/2020 0.000%
 Frequency Distribution

- -9% -7% -6% -4% -3% -1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 7% 8% 10% 11% 13% 15%
% 10%

Probability Distribution
 Probability Distribution

0% -9% -7% -6% -4% -3% -1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 7% 8% 10% 11% 13% 15%

Probability
Date Crypto
5/29/2019 -0.694% Mean ̄̄ 0.1491%
5/30/2019 -3.926%
5/31/2019 9.000% Sample Standard deviation 6.5886%
6/1/2019 11.000% Population standard deviation 6.5803%
6/2/2019 2.089%
6/3/2019 -6.107%
6/4/2019 12.000%
6/5/2019 1.511%
6/6/2019 -0.028%
6/7/2019 2.837%
6/8/2019 -1.117%
6/9/2019 3.345% Frequency Distribution of returns
6/10/2019 4.062%
6/11/2019 -0.908% Returns Frequency
6/12/2019 2.752% -37% 1 Frequency Dis
6/13/2019 18.000% -34% 1 200
6/14/2019 5.624% -31% 3 180
6/15/2019 1.663% -28% 1 160
140
6/16/2019 14.000% -25% 0
120
6/17/2019 3.623% -21% 1 100
6/18/2019 -2.560% -18% 2 80
6/19/2019 2.111% -15% 0 60
40
6/20/2019 2.735% -12% 2
20
6/21/2019 6.480% -9% 5 0
6/22/2019 5.492% -6% 14 17 35 99 64 29 94 58 23 88
6 01 116 220 325 430 534 639 744 848 5
6/23/2019 1.436% -2% 51 85 74 92 10 28 46 64 82 00 89
953 720 902 085 267 449 631 813 996 781
6/24/2019 1.435% 1% 175 6 2 5 9 2 5 8 1 4 1 3
71 00 83 66 50 33 16 00 83 68 01
0.3 .34 .30 .27 .24 .21 .18 .15 .11 86 55
6/25/2019 7.082% 4% 91 - -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 0.0 0.0 0.0
- - -
6/26/2019 10.392% 7% 28
6/27/2019 -14.086% 10% 9 Freq
6/28/2019 10.950% 13% 6
6/29/2019 -3.610% 17% 3
6/30/2019 -9.551% 20% 2
7/1/2019 -2.163% 22% 2
7/2/2019 2.065% total 397
7/3/2019 10.735%
7/4/2019 -6.235%
7/5/2019 -2.113%
7/6/2019 2.096% Probability Distribution of returns
7/7/2019 2.162%
7/8/2019 7.293% Returns Probability
7/9/2019 2.343% -37% 0.0025189 Probability
7/10/2019 -3.319% -34% 0.0025189 0.5
7/11/2019 -6.563% -31% 0.0075567 0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
 Probability
0.5
0.45
7/12/2019 4.026% -28% 0.0025189
0.4
7/13/2019 -3.585% -25% 0
0.35
7/14/2019 -9.974% -21% 0.0025189
7/15/2019 6.231% -18% 0.0050378 0.3
7/16/2019 -13.010% -15% 0 0.25
7/17/2019 2.281% -12% 0.0050378 0.2
7/18/2019 10.034% -9% 0.0125945
0.15
7/19/2019 -1.273% -6% 0.0352645
0.1
7/20/2019 2.245% -2% 0.1284635
7/21/2019 -1.561% 1% 0.440806 0.05
7/22/2019 -2.415% 4% 0.2292191 0
-37% -34% -31% -28% -25% -21% -18% -15% -12% -
7/23/2019 -4.277% 7% 0.070529
7/24/2019 -0.897% 10% 0.02267 P
7/25/2019 1.018% 13% 0.0151134
7/26/2019 -0.419% 17% 0.0075567 0.833753
7/27/2019 -3.978% 20% 0.0050378
7/28/2019 0.793% 22% 0.0050378
7/29/2019 -0.353% total 1
7/30/2019 0.927%
7/31/2019 4.977%
8/1/2019 3.114%
8/2/2019 1.140%
8/3/2019 2.886%
8/4/2019 1.372%
8/5/2019 7.616%
8/6/2019 -2.774%
8/7/2019 4.041%
8/8/2019 0.205%
8/9/2019 -0.865%
8/10/2019 -4.290%
8/11/2019 1.493%
8/12/2019 -1.223%
8/13/2019 -4.277%
8/14/2019 -7.747%
8/15/2019 2.585%
8/16/2019 0.609%
8/17/2019 -1.374%
8/18/2019 1.115%
8/19/2019 5.512%
8/20/2019 -1.400%
8/21/2019 -5.809%
8/22/2019 -0.069%
8/23/2019 2.733%
8/24/2019 -2.383%
8/25/2019 -0.211%
8/26/2019 2.291%
8/27/2019 -1.787%
8/28/2019 -4.232%
8/29/2019 -2.504%
8/30/2019 0.925%
8/31/2019 0.339%
9/1/2019 1.322%
9/2/2019 6.034%
9/3/2019 2.675%
9/4/2019 -0.273%
9/5/2019 -0.179%
9/6/2019 -2.101%
9/7/2019 1.584%
9/8/2019 -0.722%
9/9/2019 -1.018%
9/10/2019 -2.119%
9/11/2019 0.617%
9/12/2019 2.277%
9/13/2019 -0.476%
9/14/2019 -0.024%
9/15/2019 -0.100%
9/16/2019 -0.685%
9/17/2019 -0.346%
9/18/2019 -0.420%
9/19/2019 0.668%
9/20/2019 -0.826%
9/21/2019 -1.590%
9/22/2019 0.506%
9/23/2019 -3.387%
9/24/2019 -11.396%
9/25/2019 -1.549%
9/26/2019 -4.336%
9/27/2019 1.637%
9/28/2019 -0.072%
9/29/2019 -1.719%
9/30/2019 2.341%
10/1/2019 0.596%
10/2/2019 0.596%
10/3/2019 -1.585%
10/4/2019 -0.654%
10/5/2019 -0.663%
10/6/2019 -2.004%
10/7/2019 3.223%
10/8/2019 -0.204%
10/9/2019 4.459%
10/10/2019 -0.108%
10/11/2019 -3.083%
10/12/2019 0.178%
10/13/2019 -0.187%
10/14/2019 0.645%
10/15/2019 -2.022%
10/16/2019 -1.924%
10/17/2019 0.701%
10/18/2019 -1.613%
10/19/2019 0.193%
10/20/2019 2.923%
10/21/2019 0.263%
10/22/2019 -2.008%
10/23/2019 -6.976%
10/24/2019 -0.282%
10/25/2019 15.576%
10/26/2019 6.746%
10/27/2019 3.318%
10/28/2019 -3.094%
10/29/2019 1.853%
10/30/2019 -2.354%
10/31/2019 -0.067%
11/1/2019 0.669%
11/2/2019 0.687%
11/3/2019 -0.958%
11/4/2019 1.919%
11/5/2019 -0.745%
11/6/2019 0.196%
11/7/2019 -0.997%
11/8/2019 -4.992%
11/9/2019 0.099%
11/10/2019 2.745%
11/11/2019 -3.288%
11/12/2019 0.661%
11/13/2019 -0.084%
11/14/2019 -1.137%
11/15/2019 -2.482%
11/16/2019 0.692%
11/17/2019 0.318%
11/18/2019 -3.132%
11/19/2019 -1.241%
11/20/2019 -2.180%
11/21/2019 -4.790%
11/22/2019 -4.529%
11/23/2019 1.387%
11/24/2019 -4.730%
11/25/2019 1.394%
11/26/2019 1.011%
11/27/2019 4.340%
11/28/2019 -0.910%
11/29/2019 3.995%
11/30/2019 -2.469%
12/1/2019 -1.920%
12/2/2019 -1.378%
12/3/2019 -0.025%
12/4/2019 -0.930%
12/5/2019 2.706%
12/6/2019 1.325%
12/7/2019 0.122%
12/8/2019 0.107%
12/9/2019 -2.161%
12/10/2019 -1.659%
12/11/2019 -0.834%
12/12/2019 0.356%
12/13/2019 0.367%
12/14/2019 -1.995%
12/15/2019 0.388%
12/16/2019 -3.073%
12/17/2019 -4.212%
12/18/2019 9.582%
12/19/2019 -1.016%
12/20/2019 0.222%
12/21/2019 -0.383%
12/22/2019 4.456%
12/23/2019 -2.076%
12/24/2019 -0.450%
12/25/2019 -0.647%
12/26/2019 -0.497%
12/27/2019 0.706%
12/28/2019 0.383%
12/29/2019 1.430%
12/30/2019 -1.747%
12/31/2019 -1.363%
1/1/2020 0.091%
1/2/2020 -2.982%
1/3/2020 5.145%
1/4/2020 0.895%
1/5/2020 0.009%
1/6/2020 4.829%
1/7/2020 5.077%
 1/8/2020 -1.027%
1/9/2020 -2.485%
1/10/2020 3.649%
1/11/2020 -1.580%
1/12/2020 1.928%
1/13/2020 -0.590%
1/14/2020 8.393%
1/15/2020 -0.235%
1/16/2020 -0.945%
1/17/2020 2.353%
1/18/2020 0.154%
1/19/2020 -2.645%
1/20/2020 -0.558%
1/21/2020 1.019%
1/22/2020 -0.743%
1/23/2020 -3.161%
1/24/2020 0.463%
1/25/2020 -0.919%
1/26/2020 2.736%
1/27/2020 3.641%
1/28/2020 5.037%
1/29/2020 -0.448%
1/30/2020 2.065%
1/31/2020 -1.666%
2/1/2020 0.453%
2/2/2020 -0.516%
2/3/2020 -0.544%
2/4/2020 -1.211%
2/5/2020 4.710%
2/6/2020 1.211%
2/7/2020 0.680%
2/8/2020 0.706%
2/9/2020 2.550%
2/10/2020 -2.571%
2/11/2020 3.567%
2/12/2020 1.154%
2/13/2020 -1.081%
2/14/2020 0.957%
2/15/2020 -4.099%
2/16/2020 0.455%
2/17/2020 -2.459%
2/18/2020 4.663%
2/19/2020 -5.015%
2/20/2020 -0.259%
2/21/2020 0.811%
2/22/2020 -0.240%
2/23/2020 2.704%
2/24/2020 -2.764%
2/25/2020 -3.197%
2/26/2020 -5.579%
2/27/2020 -0.408%
2/28/2020 -1.275%
2/29/2020 -0.841%
3/1/2020 -0.431%
3/2/2020 3.588%
3/3/2020 -0.923%
3/4/2020 -0.370%
3/5/2020 3.695%
3/6/2020 0.482%
3/7/2020 -2.330%
3/8/2020 -8.999%
3/9/2020 -2.275%
3/10/2020 -0.176%
3/11/2020 0.022%
3/12/2020 -37.170%
3/13/2020 11.928%
3/14/2020 -6.531%
3/15/2020 3.691%
3/16/2020 -7.007%
3/17/2020 4.211%
3/18/2020 0.245%
3/19/2020 18.188%
3/20/2020 0.123%
3/21/2020 -0.221%
3/22/2020 -5.737%
3/23/2020 10.052%
3/24/2020 4.964%
3/25/2020 -0.798%
3/26/2020 0.530%
3/27/2020 -3.672%
3/28/2020 -3.518%
3/29/2020 -5.129%
3/30/2020 8.575%
3/31/2020 0.137%
4/1/2020 2.611%
4/2/2020 2.828%
4/3/2020 -0.887%
4/4/2020 1.992%
4/5/2020 -1.112%
4/6/2020 7.078%
 4/7/2020 -1.311%
4/8/2020 2.197%
4/9/2020 -0.436%
4/10/2020 -5.979%
4/11/2020 -0.093%
4/12/2020 1.633%
4/13/2020 -1.808%
4/14/2020 -0.038%
4/15/2020 -2.928%
4/16/2020 7.147%
4/17/2020 -0.290%
4/18/2020 2.276%
4/19/2020 -0.940%
4/20/2020 -4.277%
4/21/2020 -0.024%
4/22/2020 3.443%
4/23/2020 4.391%
4/24/2020 1.631%
4/25/2020 0.252%
4/26/2020 1.452%
4/27/2020 1.507%
4/28/2020 0.147%
4/29/2020 12.732%
4/30/2020 -1.619%
5/1/2020 2.382%
5/2/2020 1.397%
5/3/2020 -1.014%
5/4/2020 0.171%
5/5/2020 1.014%
5/6/2020 2.951%
5/7/2020 7.366%
5/8/2020 -1.094%
5/9/2020 -2.527%
5/10/2020 -8.729%
5/11/2020 -1.766%
5/12/2020 2.356%
5/13/2020 5.287%
5/14/2020 5.003%
5/15/2020 -4.166%
5/16/2020 0.523%
5/17/2020 3.132%
5/18/2020 20.000%
5/19/2020 15.000%
5/20/2020 18.000%
5/21/2020 11.000%
5/22/2020 1.110%
5/23/2020 0.291%
5/24/2020 -4.549%
5/25/2020 1.326%
5/26/2020 -0.807%
5/27/2020 3.916%
5/28/2020 3.755%
5/29/2020 -0.909%
5/30/2020 2.768%
5/31/2020 -2.467%
6/1/2020 7.464%
6/2/2020 -6.270%
6/3/2020 1.332%
6/4/2020 -34.900%
6/5/2020 -1.379%
6/6/2020 -0.123%
6/7/2020 -31.000%
6/8/2020 0.129%
6/9/2020 0.248%
6/10/2020 -34.000%
6/11/2020 -5.555%
6/12/2020 -20.000%
6/13/2020 -33.000%
6/14/2020 -20.000%
6/15/2020 -22.000%
6/16/2020 -30.000%
6/17/2020 23.000%
6/18/2020 18.000%
6/19/2020 15.000%
6/20/2020 15.000%
6/21/2020 12.000%
6/22/2020 3.709%
6/23/2020 22.000%
6/24/2020 -3.282%
6/25/2020 -0.524%
6/26/2020 -1.100%
6/27/2020 -1.283%
6/28/2020 1.086%
 Frequency Distribution

99 564 029 494 958 423 888 526 174 821 311 884 236 859 394 929 465
2 3 3 3 4 4 3 8 2 5 7 3 1 1 0 0
03 84 65 46 27 08 95 05 16 32 62 52 24 43 62 81
51 672 494 316 138 960 818 037 255 267 308 090 287 465 643 821
22 54 86 18 49 17 36 54 75 09 91 27 95 63 31
50 133 816 500 183 668 501 334 322 999 165 033 349 666 983
.2 .1 .1 .1 8 5 2 8 3 7 .1 .1 .1 .1
-0 -0 -0 -0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0

Frequency

Probability Distribution
 Probability Distribution

28% -25% -21% -18% -15% -12% -9% -6% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 17% 20% 22%

Probability
 Given the below information,
would you choose to invest in
Stock A or Stock B?

Stock A
Mean 0.38%
Standard deviation 1.57%
nformation,
e to invest in
?

Stock B
0.38%
1.57%
 SKEWNESS

Which 'side' has longer tails?

- long tail in the positive direction

A perfectly
symmetric
distribution has a
- Extreme values towards the positive end of a distribution skewness value of 0

KURTOSIS

Which distribution has the

highest amount of observations
lying in the tails?
- long tail in the negative direction

- Extreme values towards the negative end

 Given the below information,
would you choose to invest in
Stock A or Stock B?

Stock A
Mean 0.38%
Standard deviation 1.57%
Skewness -0.291
Kurtosis 3.89
w information,
ose to invest in
k B?

Stock B
0.38%
1.57%
0.12
2.34
COVARIANCE & CORRELATION

X : Random variable 1 (Stock return in this case)

Y : Random variable 2 (Bond return in this case)

lies between -1 and +1

Note: Correlation does not signify causation.

RAW DATA
Month Stock Return(X) Bond Return(Y)
Jan 1% -0.45%
Feb 2% -0.91%
Mar -1% 0.50%
Apr 3% -1.50%
May 2% -1.00%
Jun -2% 1.00%
Jul -1% 0.15%
Aug 3% -1.50%
Sep -2% 1.00%
Oct 1% -0.50%
Nov 2% -1.00%
Dec 1% -0.50%

-0.0001580681818182

-0.993210036810036 0
0.8
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
STRIBUTION

Two investment options

0.75 10%
0.25 -5%
6.25%

0.1 250%
0.9 -20%
7.00%
 Z- value range
- ∞ to -1.96
-1.96 to 0
0 to 1.96
1.96 to ∞

Z score for STANDARD NORMAL given a cumulative probability

can be calculated using NORMS.INV function in Excel

0.158655253931457

Solution:
0.6210%
0.6210%
Solution:
0.67
investment of $10000

11000
9500

35000
8000
 Area under the curve
2.50%
47.50%
47.50%
2.50%

en a cumulative probability
function in Excel