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Energy
EnergyProcedia 152
Procedia 00(2018)
(2017)1176–1181
000–000
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CUE2018-Applied
Applied Energy
Energy Symposium andSymposium andLow
Forum 2018: Forum 2018:
carbon Low
cities carbon
and urbancities
energyandsystems,
urban energy
Applied Energy Symposium systems,
and Forum 5–7 June
2018: 2018,
Low Shanghai,
carbon cities
CUE2018, 5–7 June 2018, Shanghai, China China
and urban energy systems,
CUE2018, 5–7 June 2018, Shanghai, China
Power GridTheMorphological Positioning
15th International Symposium and Heating
on District Assessment Method in
and Cooling
Power Grid Morphological Positioning and Assessment Method in
the Energy
Assessing the feasibility Revolution
of using the heat demand-outdoor
the Energy Revolution
temperature
Xuefunction for aYan
Tanaa, Xiaoqing long-term
a
a
district
, Jun Liuaa, Peng Wangheat
a
a
, Leidemand
Shibb * forecast
Xue Tan , Xiaoqing Yan , Jun Liu , Peng Wang , Lei Shi *
State Grid Energy
a
Research Institute CO., LTD.,, Beijing 102209, China; c
I. Andrića,b,c*, A.
StatePina
a
a
, P. Ferrão
Grid Renmin
Energy Research
a
, J. Fournier
UniversityInstitute
b
of CO.,
China, LTD.,,
Beijing
b
., B.China
Beijing
100872, Lacarrière
102209, China; , O. Le Corre
c

a
b
Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
IN+ Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research - Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal
b
Veolia Recherche & Innovation, 291 Avenue Dreyfous Daniel, 78520 Limay, France
c
Département Systèmes Énergétiques et Environnement - IMT Atlantique, 4 rue Alfred Kastler, 44300 Nantes, France
Abstract
Abstract
The energy revolution will affect the development and utilization of energy, the production and distribution of electricity, and then
The
has energy revolution
profound
Abstract impacts onwillthe
affect the development
function and form ofand theutilization
power grid. of energy, the production
In this paper, to analyze andthe
distribution
impacts ofofenergy
electricity, and then
revolution in
has profound
China, impactsofonelectric
we generator the function
systemand form of
planning the power
(GESP) model grid. In this paper,
to simulate energytostructures
analyze the andimpacts
layoutsofthat
energy revolution
simulate in
different
China, we
scenarios. generator
Then we of electric
improve the system planning
calculation (GESP)
methods of model
the index to simulate
scores and energy
weights structures
to improve and layouts
the
District heating networks are commonly addressed in the literature as one of the most effective solutions for decreasing the TOPSISthat simulate
evaluation different
method,
scenarios.
composing
greenhouse Thengaswe improvefrom
a comprehensive
emissions the calculation
assessment methods
system
the building of the index
of TOPSIS-AHP-Entropy
sector. These systems scores and weights
method.
require high to improve
Furthermore,
investments wetheconstruct
which TOPSIS aevaluation
throughmethod,
multi-dimensional
are returned the heat
composing
evaluation a comprehensive
index system thatassessment
includes system of
economics, TOPSIS-AHP-Entropy
technology, and method.
environmental Furthermore,
protection.
sales. Due to the changed climate conditions and building renovation policies, heat demand in the future could weTheconstruct a
assessmentmulti-dimensional
results decrease,
of two
evaluation
scenarios
prolonging index system
demonstrate, that
in the
the investment includes
context
return economics,
of the
period. technology,
energy revolution, thatandthe environmental
Reinforcement protection.
scenario with The assessment
large-scale results energy,
renewable of two
scenarios
has much demonstrate,
better benefits,in the
which context
requiresof the
the energy
grid revolution,
stronger, more that the
efficient,Reinforcement
cleaner. In thescenario
new with
energy large-scale
revolution,
The main scope of this paper is to assess the feasibility of using the heat demand – outdoor temperature function for heat demand renewable
there are energy,
four main
has muchofbetter
changes
forecast. benefits,ofwhich
the morphological
The district requires
positioning
Alvalade, the
and
located grid stronger,
functional
in more efficient,
Lisbon patterns
(Portugal), wascleaner.
of future powerasIn
used athe
grid. newstudy.
case energyTherevolution, there
district is are fourof
consisted main
665
changes of the
buildings thatmorphological positioning and
vary in both construction functional
period patterns Three
and typology. of future power scenarios
weather grid. (low, medium, high) and three district
Copyright
renovation© 2018 Elsevier
wereLtd. All rights reserved.intermediate, deep). To estimate the error, obtained heat demand values were
Copyright
Copyright © scenarios
© 2018 Elsevier
2018 Elsevier developed
Ltd.
Ltd. All
All
(shallow,
rights
rights reserved.
reserved.
Selection and
comparedand peer-review
withpeer-review under
results fromunder responsibility
a dynamic heat of the model,
demand scientific committee
previously of Applied
developed Energy Symposium and Forum 2018: Low
Selection responsibility of the scientific committee of theand validated
CUE2018-Appliedby the authors.
Energy Symposium and
Selection
carbon and
cities
The results peer-review
and urban under
energy responsibility
systems, CUE2018. of the scientific committee of Applied Energy Symposium and
forForum
some 2018: Low
Forum 2018: showed that when
Low carbon onlyurban
cities and weather change
energy is considered, the margin of error could be acceptable
systems. applications
carbon cities and urban energy systems, CUE2018.
(the error in annual demand was lower than 20% for all weather scenarios considered). However, after introducing renovation
Keywords:
scenarios,Energy revolution;
the error value Generator
increasedofupElectric System
to 59.5% Planning Method;
(depending on the TOPSIS-AHP-Entropy method;
weather and renovation Positioning
scenarios scenarios;considered).
combination
Keywords: Energy
Morphological revolution; Generator of Electric System Planning Method; TOPSIS-AHP-Entropy method; Positioning scenarios;
positioning
The value of slope coefficient increased on average within the range of 3.8% up to 8% per decade, that corresponds to the
Morphological positioning
decrease in the number of heating hours of 22-139h during the heating season (depending on the combination of weather and
renovation scenarios considered). On the other hand, function intercept increased for 7.8-12.7% per decade (depending on the
coupled scenarios). The values suggested could be used to modify the function parameters for the scenarios considered, and
improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations.

© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and
Cooling.
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +86-10-82502696; fax: +86-10-62511645.
* E-mail
Keywords: address:
Corresponding author. Tel.: +86-10-82502696;
shil@ruc.edu.cn
Heat demand; Forecast; Climate change fax: +86-10-62511645.
E-mail address: shil@ruc.edu.cn
1876-6102 Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1876-6102 Copyright
Selection and © 2018
peer-review Elsevier
under Ltd. All of
responsibility rights reserved. committee of the Applied Energy Symposium and Forum 2018: Low carbon cities
the scientific
Selection
and urbanand peer-review
energy systems, under responsibility of the scientific committee of the Applied Energy Symposium and Forum 2018: Low carbon cities
CUE2018.
and urban energy
1876-6102 systems,
© 2017 CUE2018.
The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling.
1876-6102 Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the CUE2018-Applied Energy Symposium and Forum
2018: Low carbon cities and urban energy systems.
10.1016/j.egypro.2018.09.155
 Xue Tan et al. / Energy Procedia 152 (2018) 1176–1181 1177
2 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

1. Introduction

Fossil energy-based energy systems have made a great contribution to the development of human society, while
caused serious damage to the climate and environment concomitantly. In this background, most countries in the world
have a wide consensus to promote a new round of energy revolution. The energy structure will be optimized, and the
dominant energy sources are gradually becoming more efficient, clean, low-carbon and sustainable.
The energy system model is gradually expanding from the energy sector model of simple research on single energy
supply to the energy system model that includes energy input and output, in which energy regards as an integral part
of the national economy and its comprehensive impacts on both the economy and environment are taken into account.
From the perspective of modeling methods, the models that describe in detail the energy technology and energy
economy mainly include top-down, bottom-up, and comprehensive models[1-3]. The generator of electric system
planning model is our developed, for analyzing the reasonable configuration of different energy.
TOPSIS is a scientific method commonly used in multi-objective decision analysis of limited solutions. As a
common method of multi-attribute decision-making method, TOPSIS method has received extensive attention from
domestic and foreign scholars since its introduction and has been continuously improved and expanded [4,6]. Some
scholars combine TOPSIS method with other methods, such as the combination of AHP method, entropy weight
method and so on[7]. They fully consider the scientific nature of the attribute index weight determination, and advocate
improving and perfecting the traditional TOPSIS method from the perspective of weight determination methods, which
has also triggered a large number of scholars' research trends in determining the weights of traditional TOPSIS
methods[8].
In this paper, we use GESP method to simulate the power system operation and calculate the important index.
Secondly, we improved the TOPSIS evaluation method, improved the calculation method of index scores and weights,
and constructed a comprehensive evaluation method system. Again, we have constructed a multi-dimensional
evaluation index system that includes economics, technology, and environmental protection, and used the TOPSIS-
AHP-Entropy weight method to analyze the examples. Based on the assessment results, we analyze the morphological
changes and functional patterns of future power grid development.

2. Research methods

2.1. Generator of Electric System Planning Method

In this paper, we analyze the potential development scale of major non-fossil energy power generation, such as
hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and solar power generation, via scenario analysis method and GESP-IV
software. Considering the current "new normal" economic situation and its tendency, social energy and electricity
demand, renewable energy development and distribution, and policies on energy and environment, we simulate and
optimize the installed power generation in China.
The boundary conditions for operational analysis are the supply, grid and load of the power system for the future.
Among them, the power supply is determined by the scenario of the national and regional installed power capacity,
all kinds of power generation characteristics and costs, the scenery year-by-hour output curve. The power grid is
determined by the scenario of a Cross-zone Power transmission channel, the load for the national and the load curve
of all districts (in this situation, the annual electricity consumption has also been determined). In order to simulate the
impact of intermittent wind and light output on the operation of the system more reliably, this paper selects 8760 hours
of historical data output characteristics of some provinces in 2015, instead of the typical day and simulates the timing
power production throughout the whole year.
The goal of the optimization model is to minimize the sum of the power supply costs of all resources during the
planning period in all regions. The objective function is as follows:
R
min TC  [ ( I j ,i , r − S j ,i , r + Fj ,i , r + V j ,i , r )  (1 +  ) +  ( I k ,i , r − Sk ,i , r + Fk ,i , r + Vk ,i , r )  (1 +  ) + Ei ,r  (1 +  ) +  i ,r  (1 +  ) ] (1)
−y −y −y −y
= i i i i

r =i 1 =j 1 =k 1

Where, TC is the total power supply costs of all resources. Subscript r, i, j indicates the area, planning period, and
power type, respectively. Power types include thermal power, conventional hydropower, nuclear power, pumped
1178 Xue Tan et al. / Energy Procedia 152 (2018) 1176–1181
Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 3

storage, distributed gas power generation and biomass power generation and so on. Ij,i,r is the total investment of the j
type power supply in the sub-region r in the planning period i. Sj,i,r is the ending balance of the total newly added fixed
assets of the j type power supply. Fj,i,r is the total fixed operating cost of power supply. Vj,i,r is the total variable
operating cost of power supply . γ is the discount rate; yi indicates the time distance between the first year of the first
cycle and the beginning of the planning period. Ik,i,z is the total investment of line k. Sk,i,r is the ending balance of
newly added fixed assets. Fk,i,z is the total fixed operating expenses. Vk,i,r is the total variable operating cost. Ei,r is the
loss of power supply of the system. ψi,z is the total external cost of the system, in the sub-region r in the planning
period i.
At the same time, we must consider related constraints from power balance, cross-regional transmission, energy
balance, and policy requirements. In this paper, policy constraints mainly be considered as total quantity control of
the coal power generation and pollutant discharge. The following constraints need to be considered during power
planning.
maxLoad = r Genrr + Genrn

 DE
= r Elcr + Elcrn
r

S.t.  ED gen  ES r + ES n − ES r − ED m − E save (2)

 r r r n r r
 Emis  TP emis
 r ,i r
 r
 i 5

 Capr ,i   Load r ,i  r ,i
=  n 1= DN 1

 DCaprpeak = Caprpeak ,r
+ Caprpeak ,n
− Capnpeak ,r
− Capranti ,r
 , i ,i ,i ,i ,i

Where, the superscripts r and n indicate r and n regions respectively. maxLoadr is local maximum load. Genrr is
the local installed capacity. Genrn is net received power. Elcrr is local electricity demand. is local electricity. Elcrn is
net incoming electricity. DErgen is energy consumption for local power generation. ESrr is local energy production.
ESrn is the amount of energy from the other regions. ESnr is the amount of energy delivered to other regions. DErm is
local other non-electricity industry energy consumption. Ersave is local energy resources increase. Emisr,i is amount of
pollutants discharged by powers. TPremis is pollutant emissions of policy requirements. Capr,i is The scale of renewable
resources development in the r region during the planning period. loadr,i is Partition load. φr,i is the distributed power
source allows the penetration rate to be comprehensively determined based on the resource endowments and
development needs of the area. DCap r,ipeak is local peak capacity requirement. Cap r,ipeak,r is local installed peaking
capacity. Cap r,ipeak,n is peak shaving capacity for other region. Cap n,ipeak,r is peak shaving requirements for sending
electricity to other region. Cap r,ianti,r is local wind power reverse peak capacity.

2.2. TOPSIS-AHP-Entropy Analysis

Because the dimension and type of each index layer element are different, it is difficult to directly compare. In the
article, we do dimensionless processing of indicator data. If there are n evaluation objects, there are m evaluation
indicators whose corresponding feature values of the indicators form an index value matrix X, which is denoted as
X=(xij)n×m, there is an initial decision matrix:
 x11 x12 x1m 
x x22 x2 m  (3)
X ij =  21
 
 
 xn1 xn 2 xnm 
We obtain the dimensionless data (zij) via the normalization method, which for positive indicators and negative
indicators are different, as following.
xij − x j min x j max − xij
zij = , zij = (4)
x j max − x j min x j max − x j min
Where, the positive indicator means that the larger the attribute value got the higher score; on the contrary, the
negative indicator means that the smaller the attribute value got higher score.
 Xue Tan et al. / Energy Procedia 152 (2018) 1176–1181 1179
4 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

This paper uses a modified AHP to determine the subjective weights of each element of the indicator layers. It is
assumed that the element Rk in the R layer is associated with the next layer A1, A2, ..., Am, and m is the number of
indicators to be compared. The constructed judgment matrix is as follows:
 a11 a12 a1m 
a a22 a2 m  (5)
A =  21
 
 
 am1 am 2 amm 
Where, aij denotes the numerical representation of the relative importance of Ai to Aj for Rk, usually aij may be scaled
by Satty's 1-9 scale method. When the judgment matrix passes the consistency check, the weights of the indicators
can be calculated by obtaining the feature vector corresponding to the largest characteristic root, thereby performing
sorting. This method adds the jth column elements of the judgment matrix. And after normalizing cj, we can get the
weight coefficient of each index.
m m
cj =1 a
i =1
ij
, wj = c j ck =1
k
(6)

The original AHP approach is too subjective to evaluate, and the improved analytic hierarchy process uses a new
index scale. If A is compared to B and B to C, then A is comparable to C in terms of grade, ie, A:C=(A:B)/(B:C). If
A is slightly important to B and B is strongly important to C, then A is extremely important to C. Assume that the
equally important score is 1, the slightly important score is a, the important score is a2, the significantly importance
is a4, the strongly important score is a6, and the extremely important score is a8. The scores between the two
comparison grades are recorded as am-n, m≥n, and Satty's numerical judgment limit is 9, shown as table1. There
should be a8=9, obtain a=1.3161 (The values above a8 are both recorded as 9).

Table 1. The index scale and implication of the judgment matrix .

Score implication Score implication
a0=1 A iand Ajare equally important a4=3 Ai is significantly more important than Aj
a =1.3161
1
Ai is slightly more important than Aj a =5.1962
6
Ai is strongly more important than Aj

a2=1.7321 Ai is more important than Aj a8=9 Ai is extremely more important than Aj

For the weight of objective indicators, this paper uses entropy method to calculate. After the non-dimensionalized
decision matrix Z=(zij) n×m is calculated, if the index's decision-making function, that is, the relative importance of the
indicator is irrelevant to the solution, the uncertainty of the relative importance of the index j evaluation plan is
measured by the following formula:
H ( z j ) = −
n 1 + zij
ln
1 + zij , zj
= 1 + z ,
n
1 + zij 
1
(7)
zj zj
ij  z j 
i =1 i =1 
According to the extreme value of entropy, the above formula is standardized to obtain the entropy of the
importance of the evaluation index.
e( z j ) =
H (z j )
= −
1 n 1 + zij 1 + zij
 ln , 0  e( z j )  1 (8)
ln n ln n i =1 z j zj
According to the definition and nature of entropy, the smaller the value of e(zij), the greater the relative importance
of index j. To simplify the analysis, the evaluation weight of evaluation index j determined by e(zij) is as follows.
 m  m
wj = (1 − e( z j ) )  m −  e( z j )  , 0  wj  1，  w j = 1 (9)
 j =1  j =1

Based on calculating the comprehensive weight, the TOPSIS method is used to calculate the strategic decision
score of the power grid. First, we weight the normalized decision matrix Z to obtain a weighted normalized decision
matrix U.
uij = w j zij (10)
In the weighted normalized decision matrix, the vector consisting of the max-elements of each column is called the
positive ideal point u+; the vector consisting of the min-elements of each column is called the negative ideal point u-.
The relative proximity di of the defined point ui to the negative ideal point u-is as follows.
 1180 Xue Tan et al. / Energy Procedia 152 (2018) 1176–1181
Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 5

ui , u  + −
, n , u = u − u , ui = ui − u
−
=di = , i 1, 2, (11)
2
u
Where, ui , u  s the inner product of vectors ui and , u is the European norm of u .
 1

= m  2
u  (u +j − u −j ) 2 

 j =1 
(12)

 ui  u
 2
0  ui , u  u

di  [0,1]
Where, di means that the higher its score, the better the overall efficiency of the strategic decision-making program
of the power grid. The optimal grid strategy decision method should be chosen.

3. Results and Discussion

3.1. positioning scenarios of grid development

The positioning of grid functions is closely related to factors, such as economy, society, energy, environment,
policy, and technology. Considering these factors, this paper mainly uses energy planning models to simulate the total
installed capacity, structure, and layout of power sources in each region. This paper designs two scenario scenarios.
Their main differences are the speed of new energy development, the installed capacity of new power installations,
and the scale of transmission across regions.
The baseline scenario is based on the relevant planning objectives such as China's 13th Five-Year Energy
Development Plan and China's 13th Five-Year Power Development Plan. In the baseline scenario, core function of
the power grid is power transmission. By 2020, the coal-fired power generation will be controlled at 1.1 billion
kilowatts. The renewable energy power generation capacity is 680GW, and the power generation is 190GW,
accounting for 27% of the total power generation. From 2016 to 2020, the nation’s total wind power capacity will
increase by about 80GW, and by 2020 it will reach 210GW. The new installed capacity of solar energy in the country
reached 72GW, reaching more than 110GW. In 2020, China's nuclear power development will reach the scale of
58GW in operation. From the perspective of the power flow, the northwest, northeast, north China (including Mengxi,
Shanxi), and Sichuan and Yunnan provinces are power delivery terminals, and the northwest, northeast, and north
China power streams are coal, wind, and light bundled electricity. Tibetans send water and electricity. The 13 central
provinces and cities in the east and central regions and the south region are power receivers. In the medium and long
term, there is a trend of electricity transmission from the west to the east, and from the south to the north. The main
purpose of power flow between the two regions is to exchange electricity at different seasons and at different time
zones during the daytime. The main purpose of network between the eastern and central regions and the southern
region is also to exchange power. The total amount of power flow will increase rapidly before 2020, and then the
growth rate will slow down. By 2020, the power flow in the recipient area will reach about 210 GW.
Reinforcement scenario is based on the actual development of renewable energy, policy incentives, and
environmental constraints, and the core function of the grid is the clean and efficient allocation of resources and energy.
By 2020, China's coal-fired power capacity will still be controlled at 1.1 billion kilowatts, but wind power capacity
will reach 286 million kilowatts, and the installed capacity of solar energy will be about 450 GW. The scale of biomass
power generation will total 20 GW. For the power flow, the national cross-regional transmission power flow is slightly
higher than the baseline scenario and is expected to reach 220 GW.

3.2. Examples Analysis

According to the boundary conditions of the two scenarios, combined with factors such as technology, price, policy,
and environmental constraints, this paper constructs a comprehensive benefit evaluation index system from the three
dimensions of economy, technology, and environmental protection, and the scores and weights of different indicators
are calculated by the TOPSIS-AHP-Entropy method, shown in table2.
 Xue Tan et al. / Energy Procedia 152 (2018) 1176–1181 1181
6 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

Table 2. 3.2. Indicator system and scores in two scenarios

Score Score
First-level
Baseline Reinforcement Second-level indicators Baseline Reinforcement Weights
indicators
scenario scenario scenario scenario
Construction cost 0.43 0.57 0.3
Economic
0.47 0.53 Operating costs 0.46 0.54 0.42
evaluation
Fuel costs 0.52 0.48 0.28
Advanced transmission technology 0.34 0.66 0.24
Advanced smart grid technology 0.38 0.62 0.38
Technical
0.36 0.64 Renewable energy generation technology progress
evaluation 0.23 0.77 0.17
rate

Power dispatching technology 0.45 0.55 0.21

Environmental Emission reduction benefits 0.26 0.74 0.73

0.32 0.68
evaluation Line loss reduction rate 0.49 0.51 0.27
Based on the assessment results, the benefits of the reinforcement scenario are generally better than the baseline
scenario. Therefore, in the context of the energy revolution, the large-scale development and utilization of renewable
energy requires the grid to be stronger, more efficient, cleaner, and bring more benefits to society.
Based on the above understanding of the features of the Chinese energy revolution, and the empirical analysis of
the scenarios, it can be deduced that in the new energy revolution, the functions and morphological positioning of the
power grid will undergo some changes. Power grid will be transmitted from the power generation side of distribution
to the user side, transmission and distribution of electricity is the basic function of the grid. The future distribution
system should have the capacity to absorb large-scale distributed renewable energy sources. It can be distributed
power, energy storage devices and other departments composed of micro-energy utilization system. The empirical
results show that cleaner energy power systems have great economic and social benefits. Therefore, we should
promote the energy revolution and encourage the development of new energy sources.

Acknowledgements

We gratefully acknowledge the valuable support by State Grid Science and Technology Project, and the National
Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2016YFC0209204).

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