MATHEMATICS

(STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY)

QUARTER 4
Week 5

Capsulized Self-Learning
Empowerment Toolkit

Schools Division Office of Zamboanga City

Region IX, Zamboanga Peninsula
Zamboanga City

“Unido, Junto avanza con el EduKalidad Cree, junto junto puede!”

Mark Jestoni Bulante

Teacher II
Southcom National High School
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SUBJECT &
GRADE LEVEL STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY (GRADE 11)
QUARTER FOURTH WEEK 5 DAY mm/dd/yyyy
TOPIC CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM
The learner solves problems involving test of hypothesis on the
population mean. (M11/12SP-IVe-1)

LEARNING The learner formulates the appropriate null and alternative

COMPETENCY hypotheses on a population proportion. (M11/12SP-IVe-2)

The learner identifies the appropriate form of the test-statistic

when the Central Limit Theorem is to be used. (M11/12SP-IVe-3)

IMPORTANT: Do not write anything on this material. Write your answers on separate
sheets.

UNDERSTAND
CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM
The Central Limit Theorem states that if you have a population with mean µ and
standard deviation 𝜎 and take sufficiently large random samples from the population with
replacement, then the distribution of the sample means will be approximately normally
distributed.

EXAMPLE: A certain group of welfare recipients reviews SNAP benefits of 110php per
week with a standard deviation of 20php. If a random sample of 25 people is taken,
what is the probability their mean benefit will be greater than 120php per week?

GIVEN: SOLUTION:
a. Mean (average or µ) = 120php ̅−𝝁
𝒙 𝟏𝟐𝟎 − 𝟏𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟎
b. Population size = 110php 𝒛= = = = 𝟐. 𝟓
𝝈/√𝒏 𝟐𝟎/√𝟐𝟓 𝟒
c. Standard deviation (𝛔) = 20php
d. Sample size (n) = 25 In the Z-score table of 2.5 has an area of
roughly 49.38%. Adding 50% (for the left haft of
the curve), we get 99.38%.

The Central Limit Theorem basically says that for non-normal data, the distribution of
the sample means has an approximate normal distribution, no matter what the distribution of
the original data looks like, as long as the sample size is large enough (usually at least 30)
and sample has the same size.

This theorem gives you the ability to measure how much the means of various
samples will vary, without having to take any other sample means to compare it with.

In the field of statistics, a hypothesis is a claim about some aspect of a population. A

hypothesis test allows us to test the claim about the population and find out how likely it is to
be true.

The hypothesis test consists of several components.

Mark Jestoni Bulante, Teacher II, Southcom National High School

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Null Hypothesis – denoted as 𝐻𝑂 is the statement that the value of the parameter
is, in fact, equal to the claimed value. We assume that the null hypothesis is true
until we prove that it is not.

Alternative hypothesis – denoted as 𝐻1 is the statement that the value of the

parameter differs in some way from the null hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis
can use the symbols <,>, or ≠.

Test Statistic – is the tool we use to decide whether or not to reject the null
hypothesis. It is obtained by taking observed value (the sample statistics) and
converted it into a standard score under the assumption the null hypothesis is true.

P-value – for any given hypothesis test is the probability of getting a sample
statistic at least as extreme as the observed value. That is to say, it is the area to
the left or right of the test statistic.

Critical Value - is the standard score that separates the rejection region (α) from
the rest of the given curve.

Types of Errors:

▪ A Type I Error – is incorrectly rejecting a true null hypothesis (false negative)

▪ A Type II Error – is incorrectly failing to reject an untrue null hypothesis (False
negative)

The level of significance α is a probability, in fact, is the probability of rejecting a true

null hypothesis.
Condition of Null Hypothesis
True False
Possible Fail to reject 𝑯𝑶 Correct action Type II error
Action Reject 𝑯𝑶 Type 1 error Correct A

Conclusion. If 𝑯𝑶 is rejected, we conclude that 𝑯𝟏 is true. If 𝑯𝟎 is not rejected, we can

conclude that 𝑯𝟎 may be true.

We have the following steps in testing a hypothesis about the mean of a population:

1. Data: determine variable, sample size (n), sample mean (x bar), population standard
deviation or sample standard deviation (s) if is unknown

2. Assumptions: We have two cases:

CASE 1: Population is normally or approximately normally distributed with known or

unknown variance (sample size n may be small or large)

CASE 2: Population is not normal with known or unknown variance (𝑛 is large i.e 𝑛 ≥ 30)

3. Hypothesis: we have three cases:

CASE HYPOTHESES EXAMPLE

𝐻𝑂 : µ = µ𝑂 We want to test that the population mean is
Case 1
𝐻𝐴 : µ ≠ µ𝑂 different than 50
𝐻𝑂 : µ ≤ µ𝑂 We want to test that the population mean is
Case 2
𝐻𝐴 : µ > µ𝑂 greater than 50
𝐻𝑂 : µ ≥ µ𝑂 We want to test that the population mean is
Case 3
𝐻𝐴 : µ < µ𝑂 less than 50

Mark Jestoni Bulante, Teacher II, Southcom National High School

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4. Test Statistic
𝝈 is known 𝝈 is not known
𝒏 ≥ 𝟑𝟎 ̅ − 𝝁𝟎
𝑿 ̅ − 𝝁𝟎
𝑿
Population is normal 𝒁= 𝝈 𝒁=
⁄ 𝒏 𝑺⁄
or not normal √ √𝒏
̅ − 𝝁𝟎
𝑿 𝑿̅ − 𝝁𝟎
𝒏 < 𝟑𝟎 𝒕= 𝝈 𝒕=
Population is normal ⁄ 𝒏 𝑺⁄
√ √𝒏

5. Decision Rule
̅ −𝝁𝟎
𝑿
a. If test statistics is 𝒁 = 𝝈 ,
⁄ 𝒏
√
𝐻𝑂 : µ = µ𝑂 𝐻𝑂 : µ ≤ µ𝑂 𝐻𝑂 : µ ≥ µ𝑂
Hypotheses
𝐻𝐴 : µ ≠ µ𝑂 𝐻𝐴 : µ > µ𝑂 𝐻𝐴 : µ < µ𝑂
Critical Value (s) 𝑍𝛼 and −𝑍𝛼 𝑍1−𝛼 = −𝑍𝛼 𝑍𝛼
2 2
Reject 𝐻0 (and accept 𝐻𝐴 ) at the significance level 𝛼 if:
𝑍 < 𝑍𝛼 or
2 𝑍 > 𝑍1−𝛼 = −𝑍𝛼 𝑍 < 𝑍𝛼
Decision
𝑍 > 𝑍1−𝛼 = −𝑍𝛼 One – sided test One – sided test
2 2
(Right – tailed) (Left – tailed)
Two – sided test
̅ −𝝁𝟎
𝑿
b. If test statistics is 𝒕 = 𝝈 ,
⁄ 𝒏
√
𝐻𝑂 : µ = µ𝑂 𝐻𝑂 : µ ≤ µ𝑂 𝐻𝑂 : µ ≥ µ𝑂
Hypotheses
𝐻𝐴 : µ ≠ µ𝑂 𝐻𝐴 : µ > µ𝑂 𝐻𝐴 : µ < µ𝑂
Critical Value (s) 𝑡𝛼 and −𝑡𝛼 𝑡1−𝛼 = −𝑡𝛼 𝑡𝛼
2 2
Reject 𝐻0 (and accept 𝐻𝐴 ) at the significance level 𝛼 if:
𝑡 < 𝑡𝛼 or
2 𝑡 > 𝑡1−𝛼 = −𝑡𝛼 𝑡 < 𝑡𝛼
Decision
𝑡 > 𝑡1−𝛼 = −𝑡𝛼 One – sided test One – sided test
2 2
(Right – tailed) (Left – tailed)
Two – sided test

c. Use of 𝑝 – values in decision making.

𝑝 – value is the smallest value of 𝛼 for which we can reject the null hypothesis
𝐻0 . Calculating 𝑝 – value depends on the alternative hypothesis 𝐻𝐴 .
̅ −𝝁𝟎
𝑿
If test statistics is 𝒁 = 𝝈 ,
⁄ 𝒏
√
Hypotheses 𝐻𝐴 : µ ≠ µ𝑂 𝐻𝐴 : µ > µ𝑂 𝐻𝐴 : µ < µ𝑂
𝒑 – value 2 × 𝑝(𝑍 > |𝑍𝑐 |) 𝑝(𝑍 > 𝑍𝑐 ) 𝑝(𝑍 < 𝑍𝑐 )
Significance level 𝛼
Decision Reject 𝐻0 if 𝑝 – value < 𝛼

6. Decision
• If we reject 𝐻0 , we can conclude that 𝐻𝐴 is true.
• If, however, we do not reject 𝐻0 , we may conclude that 𝐻0 is true.

Decision rule using 𝑝 – value:

• If the 𝑝 – value is less than or equal to 𝛼, we reject the null hypothesis (𝑝 ≤ 𝛼).
• If the 𝑝 – value is greater than to 𝛼, we do not reject the null hypothesis (𝑝 > 𝛼).

EXAMPLE 1
Researchers are interested in the mean age of a certain population. A random sample
of 10 individual individuals drawn from the population of interest has a mean of 27.
Assuming that the population is approximately normally distributed with variance 20, can
we conclude that the mean is different from 30 years? (α = 0.05).
If the p-value is 0.034 how can we use it in making decision?

Mark Jestoni Bulante, Teacher II, Southcom National High School

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SOLUTION:

1. Data: Variable is age, 𝑛 = 10, 𝑋̅ = 27, 𝜎 2 = 20, 𝛼 = 0.05

2. Assumptions: the population is approximately normally distributed with variance of 20.
3. Hypothesis: 𝐻𝑂 : µ = 30
𝐻1 : µ ≠ 30
4. Test Statistics:
̅ − 𝝁𝟎 𝑿
𝑿 ̅ − 𝝁𝟎 𝟐𝟕 − 𝟑𝟎
𝒁= 𝝈 = = = −𝟐. 𝟏𝟐
⁄ 𝒏 𝝈 𝟐 𝟐𝟎
√ √ √
𝒏 𝟏𝟎
5. Decision Rule: The alternative hypothesis is 𝑯𝟏 : µ ≠ 30.
Hence, we reject 𝐻0 if 𝑍 > 𝑍1−0.025 = 𝑍0.975 or 𝑍 < −𝑍1−0.025 = −𝑍0.975
Note that 𝑍0.975 = 1.96 (based on the 𝑍 distribution table)

6. Decision:
We reject 𝐻0 , since −2.12 is in the rejection region. We can conclude that 𝜇 is not equal to
30. Using the 𝑝 – value, we not that 𝑝 – value = 0.0340 < 0.05, therefore, we reject 𝐻0 .

SAQ 1: What does the central limit theorem tells us?

SAQ 2: When do we use the central limit theorem?

Let’s Practice! (Write your answer on separate sheets.)

ACTIVITY
TERM 1
Directions: Study the problem completely.

PROBLEM 1: Among 157 African – American men, the men systolic blood pressure was 146
mm Hg with standard deviation of 27. We wish to know if based on these data, we may
conclude that the mean systolic blood pressure for a population of African- American is
greater than 140. Use α= 0.01.

PROBLEM 2: Reyes performed a study to validate a translated version of the Western

Mindanao State University (WMSU) questionnaire used with English-speaking patients with
hip or knee osteoarthritis. For the 76 women classified with severe hip pain. The WMSU mean
function score was 70.7 with standard deviation of 14.6, we wish to know if we may conclude
that the mean function score for a population of similar women subjects with sever hip pain is
less than 75. Let α=0.01.

REMEMBER
Key Points
⚫ Let’s take a look at how Central Limit Theorem works to gain a better understanding. As
the sample size increases, the sampling distribution of the mean, X-bar, can be
approximated by a normal distribution with mean µ and standard deviation 𝜎⁄ where:
√𝑛
1. µ is the population mean
2. 𝛔 is the population standard deviation
3. 𝒏 is the sample size

⚫ In other words, if we repeatedly take independent, random sample size n from any
population, then when n is large the distribution of the sample means will approach a
normal distribution.

Mark Jestoni Bulante, Teacher II, Southcom National High School

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TRY
Let’s see how much have you learned today!

General Directions: Study the following assessments carefully and write your
answers on separate sheets.

Assessment 1.
Directions: Read carefully every statement given and choose the letter that corresponds to
your answer.

1. If the assumed hypothesis is tested for rejection considering it to be true it is called ____.
a. Null Hypothesis b. Statistical Hypothesis
c. Simple Hypothesis d. Composite Hypothesis

2. A statement whose validity is tested on the basis of a sample is called _______.

a. Null Hypothesis b. Statistical Hypothesis
c. Simple Hypothesis d. Composite Hypothesis

3. A hypothesis which defines the population distribution is called________.

a. Null Hypothesis b. Statistical Hypothesis
c. Simple Hypothesis d. Composite Hypothesis

4. If the null hypothesis is false then which of the following is accepted?

a. Null Hypothesis b. Positive Hypothesis
c. Negative Hypothesis d. Alternative Hypothesis

5. The rejection probability of Null Hypothesis when it is true is called ________.

a. Level of Confidence b. Level of Significant
c. Level of Margin d. Level of Rejection

6. The point where the Null Hypothesis gets rejected is called ______.
a. Significant Value b. Rejection Value
c. Acceptance Value d. Critical Value

7. If the critical region is evenly distributed then the test is referred ______.
a. Two tailed b. One tailed
c. Three tailed d. Zero Tailed

8. The type of test is defined by which of the following?

a. Null Hypothesis b. Simple Hypothesis
c. Alternative Hypothesis d. Composite Hypothesis

9. Which of the following is defined as the rule or formula to test a Null Hypothesis?
a. Test Statistic b. Population statistic
c. Variance statistic d. Null statistic

10. Type 1 error occurs when _________.

a. We reject 𝐻𝑂 if it is True b. We reject 𝐻𝑂 if it is False
c. We accept 𝐻𝑂 if it is True d. We accept 𝐻𝑂 if it is False

Assessment 2.
Directions: Choose the letter that corresponds to your answer.

1. This set of Probability and Statistics Multiple Choice Questions & Answer (MCQs) focuses
on “Testing of Hypothesis”.
a. Statistics b. Hypothesis
c. Level of Significant d. Test-Statistics

Mark Jestoni Bulante, Teacher II, Southcom National High School

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2. The _____ hypothesis is the statement originally proposed by the researcher as the
suggested answer to the research question.
a. Null Hypothesis b. Statistics Hypothesis
c. Simple Hypothesis d. Alternative Hypothesis

3. If the assumed hypothesis is tested for rejection considering it to be true it is called:

a. Null Hypothesis b. Statistics Hypothesis
c. Simple Hypothesis d. Composite Hypothesis

4. Which of the following is the two possible decision scenarios in hypothesis testing?
a. Null Hypothesis & Alternative Hypothesis
b. Statistics Hypothesis & Alternative Hypothesis
c. Simple Hypothesis & Null Hypothesis
d. Alternative Hypothesis & Simple Hypothesis

5. Which of the following is a statement whose validity is tested based on a sample?

a. Null Hypothesis b. Statistical Hypothesis
c. Simple Hypothesis d. Composite Hypothesis

Assessment 3.

ACTIVITY BRAIN PROVOKER

Directions: Study the problem and perform hypothesis testing. Use 𝑝 – value to make the
decision.

The purpose of a study by Carlo was to investigate the oral status of a group of patients
diagnosed with thalassemia major. One of the outcome measures was the decayed, missing
filled teeth index (DMFT). In a sample of 18 patients, the mean DMFT index value was 10.3
with standard deviation of 7.3. Is this a sufficient evidence to allow us to conclude that the
mean DFMT index is greater than 9 in a population of similar subjects? Let 𝛼 = 0.1

1. Data:
2. Assumption:
3. Hypothesis:
4. Test Statistics:
5. Decision Rule:
6. Decision:

NOTE: Take the 𝒑 – value = 0.22.

Alferez, M.S. & Duro, M.A. (2006). MSA Statistics and Probability. MSA Publishing House.
Reprinted 2016.
REFERENCE/S Belecina, R. R.et.al. (2016). Statistics and Probability. First Edition. Rex Book Store, nc.
Mercado, Jesus P. (2016). New Century Mathematics Probability & Statistics. Phoenix Publishing
House. Reprinted 2016.
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LEARNING RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT TEAM
MARK JESTONI BULANTE
WRITER
Southcom National High School
ILLUSTRATOR Abdurauf J. Baldomero
LEARNING TEAM / Mercelita M. Medallo Dr. Deborah E. Bandahala
EVALUATORS Dr. Dickenson L. Canizares Enrico P. Miniao
MANAGEMENT AND Dr. Roy C. Tuballa, CESO VI Dr. Norma T. Francisco, CESE
SPECIALIST Dr. Jay S. Montealto, CESO VI Dr. Vilma A. Brown

“No hay cosa imposible. Cree, junto junto puede!”

Mark Jestoni Bulante, Teacher II, Southcom National High School