IDTechEx The Targets

Electric Vehicle Markets Land, Sea,
Air – The Targets, the Sales and the

Section title
Shortages
Luke Gear, Principal Analyst, Electric Vehicles Research
Slide 1
Downloaded Copyright
by Atef Alnazer © IDTechEx. Use28
- atefnazer2015@gmail.com in Jul
accordance with distribution licence
2023 05:45:52 | www.IDTechEx.com Electric Vehicles
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Slide 2
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Forecasts
Slide 3
Electric Vehicles: Land Sea & Air 2022-2042
Report Title
Webinar Agenda Webinar Coverage
Introduction
Cars, Trucks, Buses, Air Taxi,

Electric Transport Markets in 2021 Marine, Two-wheeler –
greater coverage in report
OEM Targets
Raw Materials, Lithium

Shortages
shortage outlook
Battery, Motor, 800V / Power

Introduction to Technology Trends Electronics, Solutions to
Shortages
IDTechEx.com/EV
For full details and list of available reports visit www.IDTechEx.com/Research/EV

Sample pages are available for all IDTechEx reports
Slide 4
Electric Cars - What Shortages?
– Electric car markets surged in 2021 to 6.4 million unit sales, growth across all regions.
IDTechEx.com/EV
Source: Industry associations, IDTechEx
Slide 5
Cars – Total Cost of Ownership
– EV makers have been raising prices

o Tesla Model 3 – $39,990 to $46,990 IDTechEx.com/EV
– Rising gasoline prices, economies opening and Russian sanctions.
o Sustained $4 / gallon – EVs beat ICE.
Average ICE Tesla Model

Assumption
Car 3
Lifetime 17 years 11 years
Fuel cost $2.92 / gallon 0.14 $ / kWh

Maintenance
$1140 / year $242 / year
Cost
Upfront price $37,084 $46,990
Residual
$1844 $0
value
Source: EIA Source: IDTechEx
Slide 6
Electric Trucks – The Status Quo
– Most are battery electric class 8 city trucks, incumbent OEMs lead.
– No long-haul class 8 electric truck in production – no production models > 30 tonnes and > 500km.
o Tesla plans battery-electric with the Semi, continued delays.
o Daimler and Nikola target fuel cells for greater ranges, these still require large batteries (100s kWh).
Range (km) Battery Electric Truck Fuel Cell Truck In production

Typical
Long-haul 1500
Class 4 - 7 Class 8 Nikola Two
1000 Daimler GenH2

Nikola TRE FCEV
800 Nikola Tre

Tesla Semi (Large Battery)
Toyota/Hino Profia
Typical short Emoss EF18 SZM Daimler eActros Kenworth T680 Tesla Semi (Small Battery)
Freightliner eM2
haul e.g. within Peterbilt
cities 500 Xos X-Platform
220EV Volvo FL Hyundai XCIENT
1 Volvo FM
Dongfeng Volvo VNR Tractor
EFORCE EF18 Volvo VNR Straight
Freightliner eCascadia
BYD 6F Lion Lion6 DAF LF BYD T9 Peterbilt 579EV Volvo FH
Motiv E-59
Lion Lion8 DAF CF
Renault D ZE Scania P- Volvo FMX
MAN eTGM Volvo FE
Daimler FUSO eCanter series Renault D Wide ZE
0
5 15 25 35 45
Vehicle Weight (Tonnes)
Slide 7
Electric Buses: Global Market History 2012-2021
– China tier 1 cities first to adopted electric buses but saturated quickly.
– Today, subsidies have been greatly reduced.
– Outside of China, Europe is driving growth but rely on Chinese OEMs
– European OEMs are gaining momentum, in 2021 Mercedes emerged as a market leader with its eCitaro model.
Global electric bus sales

Global electric bus sales excluding European electric bus sales in 2021 by
(thousands)
China (thousands) OEM HQ location
6
Spain Other China
RoW 15% 17%
100 6%
US RoW China / UK
Sweden
11%
India 3 US 7%
Europe India Italy

8%
China Europe Germany
Netherlands 14%
0 10% Poland
0 12%
2012 2016 2020
2012 2016 2020
Includes BEV & PHEV vehicles. Source: Industry Associations, IDTechEx Image: Mercedes Source: Chatrou, IDTechEx
Slide 8
World First’s with eVTOLs
– 21 companies looking to eVTOL production. Many targeting 2023.
– In May 2020, EHang were given the world’s first commercial pilot operational approval from the Civil Aviation
Administration of China (CAAC) to use the EHang 216 eVTOL, initially for logistics purposes.
– Concept airport constructed by Urban-Air Port (UAP) in Coventry, UK.
Source: Bell
Images taken by IDTechEx at UAP
demonstration event in May 2022.
Slide 9
Electric & Hybrid Marine – Large Pipeline
– Exponential electric and hybrid commercial vessels exponential growth.

– Ferries are the low hanging fruit because they can opportunity charge and travel short, well defined routes. Due to the
long development cycles, the impact of covid-19 appears to have hit in 2021 rather than 2020. Given the large pipeline
for 2022, IDTechEx expects growth to resume quickly.
Yearly additions of electric and hybrid vessels in
Commercial electric & hybrid vessels in-service in
service (no. of vessels)
2021
200
3%
11%
Offshore Support
6% 34% Started / Planned
Ferry 100 Construction
Cruise Yearly
Commercial Deep Sea
Tugboat
46%
0
2011 2015 2019 2023
Source: IDTechEx Source: provided in full report
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Downloaded © IDTechEx. Use28
Electric Two-wheeler Markets – Strong Growth
Outside of China
– Sales of electric two-wheelers dominated China, a saturated market.
– Growth driven by Europe and India, markets which recovered in 2021.
Global electric two-wheeler sales (thousands) Global electric two-wheeler sales excluding China
(thousands)
600
30,000
RoW
US RoW
EU + UK US
Vietnam Indonesia
Indonesia EU + UK
China Vietnam
India India
0 0
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Source: Industry associations, IDTechEx Source: Industry associations, IDTechEx
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EV Market Reports
For full details and list of

available reports, please visit
www.IDTechEx.com/Research/EV
Electric Vehicles Air Taxis: Electric Vertical Electric Two-wheelers

in Construction Take-Off and Landing 2021-2041
2022-2042 Aircraft 2021-2041
Electric, Hybrid & Fuel Cell Electric Leisure & Electric Truck Markets
Light Commercial Vehicles Sea-going Boats and Ships 2021-2041
Research@IDTechEx.com 2021-2041 2021-2040
Sample pages are available for all IDTechEx reports
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The Targets
– Automakers – 25 to 46 million EVs by 2030.
– Governments – 20 to 25 million EVs by 2030.
o US – 50% by 2030 (~ 8 million)

o EU – voted for 100% de facto ban on ICE by 2035 ~ 10
million (May 2022)
o UK – 100% by 2030 ~ 1.6 million
o China – 20% ‘new energy vehicles’ by 2025 (~4 million).
China sold 3.3 million in 2021.
*estimated based on a % target. Source: automaker

announcements
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Raw Material Price Increases
– Since 2021 Nickel prices are up ~75% and Lithium Carbonate is up ~640%.
– A 100% increase in price to lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese over early 2021 prices results in an ~30% cell material
cost increase.
Source: Trading Economics, IDTechEx

Source: IDTechEx
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Lithium Shortage
– Supply / demand dynamics of Lithium Carbonate is tight through 2026.

– Real problems from 2027.
Source: IDTechEx Source: IDTechEx
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Shortages Across the Supply Chain
– Automakers are facing shortages in multiple areas of the supply chain.
Lithium
Vehicle
• Huge electrification push production Battery
• Russia-Ukraine War
• Covid-19
• Lockdowns in China
Wire
Chip
harness
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The ‘Big Three’ in EV
– The focal points of innovation – batteries, traction motors and the inverter.
– Amid battery shortages, improvements to efficiency of power electronics and motors is key.
Energy storage Inverter Electric Traction Motor Transmission Wheel
Li-ion battery, hydrogen fuel Si IGBT, SiC MOSFET… Permanent magnet,

cell, supercapacitor… induction, wound rotor… or propeller etc.
Advancements improve vehicle range, critical for

competitiveness and consumer adoption
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IDTechEx Li-ion Battery Timeline
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030+
NMC 532, 622, LFP NMC 721, 811, NCMA, NMx NMC 900, LNMO
Graphite Gr, mid-silicon High-silicon, lithium-metal
Liquid electrolyte Solid electrolyte
400V, modular 800V, cell-to-pack
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Summary of Traction Motor Types
Conversion on permanent magnet motors for efficiency is at odds with environmental needs and price volatility.
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Axial Flux Motors Enter the EV Market
– In 2021 Renault entered into a contract with WHYLOT.

The axial flux technology will be initially applied to
hybrids with the aim of reducing costs by 5% and CO2
under WLTP by 2.5 g.
– In July 2021, YASA was purchased by Mercedes-
Benz. It will continue to operate in Oxford, UK as a
wholly owned subsidiary with 250 staff. The purpose of
the purchase is to provide Mercedes-Benz’s AMG.EA
electric only platform with scope to continue
development for the wider group.
Yasa have provided motors for

prototypes with Aston Martin,
Jaguar, Koenigsegg, Nissan,
Williams. Also provide the motor in
Ferrari SF90 and a Rolls Royce
electric plane. 20,000 units made
in 2018, projected 100,000 units
annually by 2021. Purchased in
2021 by Daimler.
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Drivers for 800V Platforms
800V Powertrain Silicon Carbide MOSFETs
End user
End user
• Greater efficiency benefit
benefit • Reduced cable size (save • Higher voltage and (smaller battery or
weight, increase range) switching frequencies
more range)
allows higher-speed • High powertrain
• 350kW DC motors: lower currents efficiency.
fast charging • Or higher power at the same power • Higher switching • Good
• Slight range for the same making motors smaller, frequency improvement to
improvement cable size. lighter, more efficient. range ~ 5% –
• Increased range or 10% WLTP (or
reduced battery kWh • Smaller & lighter battery kWh /
• Slight improvement in inverter package, cost reduction).
efficiency with lower 𝐼 2 𝑅 and cooling.
losses.
Source: IDTechEx, McLaren
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DC Fast Charging
More ubiquitous uptake of fast chargers can relieve pressure on battery supply. DC charger
power split
market share
evolution in %
Charging time for given power level
22 kW AC 120 kW DC 250 kW DC 350 kW DC
Battery size 60 kWh > 2.5 hours > 30 mins > 15 mins > 11 mins
Time savings - 2 hours - 15 mins - 4 mins
Cost - < $5000 ~$100,000 $100k-$300k
350-400 V 800 V
Source: IDTechEx Source: IDTechEx
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The Ultimate Concept EV: 1000km Range
Mercedes Vision EQXX concept is capable of 1000km.

Solar bodywork, aerodynamic design (low drag factor), silicon anode
batteries, Yasa axial flux motors (speculation), and a high voltage
900V platform likely with a SiC inverter.
Vision EQXX. Source: Mercedes
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EV Technology Reports
For full details and list of

available reports, please visit
www.IDTechEx.com/Research/EV
Fuel Cell Power Electronics Electric Motors

Electric Vehicles for Electric Vehicles for Electric Vehicles
2022-2032 2022-2032 2022-2032
research@IDTechEx.com
www.IDTechEx.com
Americas:
+1 617 577 7890
Charging Infrastructure for Materials for Electric
Electric Vehicles and Fleets Vehicles: Electric Motors, ASIA (Japan):
Research@IDTechEx.com 2022-2032 Battery Cells & Packs, HV +81 3 3216 7209
Cabling 2020-2030
Sample pages are available for all IDTechEx reports Europe:
+44 1223 812 300
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Electric Vehicle Markets Land, Sea,

Air – The Targets, the Sales and the

Luke Gear, Principal Analyst, Electric Vehicles Research

• Technology assessment • Company profiling • Market forecasts

Reports | Subscriptions | Consulting | Journals | Webinars

Research Consulting Subscriptions

Cars, Trucks, Buses, Air Taxi,

Raw Materials, Lithium

Battery, Motor, 800V / Power

For full details and list of available reports visit www.IDTechEx.com/Research/EV

Source: Industry associations, IDTechEx

– EV makers have been raising prices

Average ICE Tesla Model

Fuel cost $2.92 / gallon 0.14 $ / kWh

Source: EIA Source: IDTechEx

Range (km) Battery Electric Truck Fuel Cell Truck In production

1000 Daimler GenH2

800 Nikola Tre

Global electric bus sales

Europe India Italy

– Concept airport constructed by Urban-Air Port (UAP) in Coventry, UK.

– Exponential electric and hybrid commercial vessels exponential growth.

Source: IDTechEx Source: provided in full report

Source: Industry associations, IDTechEx Source: Industry associations, IDTechEx

For full details and list of

Electric Vehicles Air Taxis: Electric Vertical Electric Two-wheelers

Sample pages are available for all IDTechEx reports

– Automakers – 25 to 46 million EVs by 2030.

– Governments – 20 to 25 million EVs by 2030.

o US – 50% by 2030 (~ 8 million)

*estimated based on a % target. Source: automaker

Source: Trading Economics, IDTechEx

– Supply / demand dynamics of Lithium Carbonate is tight through 2026.

Source: IDTechEx Source: IDTechEx

– Automakers are facing shortages in multiple areas of the supply chain.

Energy storage Inverter Electric Traction Motor Transmission Wheel

Li-ion battery, hydrogen fuel Si IGBT, SiC MOSFET… Permanent magnet,

Advancements improve vehicle range, critical for

Graphite Gr, mid-silicon High-silicon, lithium-metal

Liquid electrolyte Solid electrolyte

400V, modular 800V, cell-to-pack

– In 2021 Renault entered into a contract with WHYLOT.

Yasa have provided motors for

800V Powertrain Silicon Carbide MOSFETs

Source: IDTechEx, McLaren

Charging time for given power level

22 kW AC 120 kW DC 250 kW DC 350 kW DC

Time savings - 2 hours - 15 mins - 4 mins

Cost - < $5000 ~$100,000 $100k-$300k

Source: IDTechEx Source: IDTechEx

Mercedes Vision EQXX concept is capable of 1000km.

Vision EQXX. Source: Mercedes

For full details and list of

Fuel Cell Power Electronics Electric Motors

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