Comparing Population Pyramids Around the World

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Vol.1
Understanding and Comparing Population Pyramids
Demographic data can reveal all kinds of insights about a
population, from the country’s fertility and mortality rates to
how certain events and policies have shaped the makeup of a
population.

Population pyramids are one of the best ways to visualize

population data, and comparing the pyramids of various
countries and regions side-by-side can reveal unexpected
insights and differences between groups.

This graphic uses population data from the United Nations to

compare the demographics of some select nations and regions
of the world, showcasing how much age distributions can vary.
Three Types of Population Pyramids
Although population pyramids can come in all shapes and sizes, most
generally fall into three distinct categories:

• Expansive Pyramids: Recognized by their traditional “pyramid-like” shape

with a broad base and narrow top, expansive pyramids reflect a population
with a high birth rate along with a high mortality rate which is most common
in developing countries.
• Constrictive Pyramids: With a narrow base and thicker middle and top
sections of the pyramid, constrictive pyramids often occur in developed
economies whose populations have low birth rates and long-life
expectancies.
• Stationary Pyramids: These pyramids showcase an evenly distributed
population across age groups, often found in newly-developed countries
which have stable birth and mortality rates.

Each population pyramid is essentially a visual snapshot of a nation’s

current demographic breakdown, shaped by fluctuating birth and
mortality rates as well as changes to immigration and social policies.

Understanding the inherent risks associated with different pyramid

types can help give insight into the challenges these populations face.
The Risks of Different Population Pyramid Types
Each type of population pyramid structure has unique
challenges and advantages often characterized by the country
or region’s current stage of economic development.

Populations with expansive pyramids, such as the one

representing the continent of Africa, have the advantage of a
larger youth and working-aged population, however this
advantage can be rendered null if job growth, education, and
health care aren’t prioritized.

Countries with constrictive pyramids like Japan face the

challenge of supporting their outsized aging population with a
diminishing working-aged population. While immigration and
increasing birth rates can help in both the short and long term,
due to the working population being outnumbered, countries
with constrictive pyramids must find ways to increase their
productivity to avoid potential declines in economic growth.
Africa Vs Europe - 2022
USA Vs Japan - 2022
China Vs India - 2022
China and India’s Demographics Compared
After the world’s population reached eight billion people last year, 2023
brought a new population milestone as India overtook China as the
world’s most populous country.

When you compare the two nations’ population pyramids, you can see
how India’s population has a strong base of young and working-aged
people compared to China’s more constrictive population pyramid that
also features a higher median age.

This demographic difference is largely shaped by China’s one-child

policy which since 2021 was loosened to be a three-child policy. As a
result, China’s total fertility rate is around 1.2 today, in contrast to
India’s total fertility rate of 2.0.

While India is set to ride the productivity boom of its large working-age
population, the country will have to ensure it can keep its population
pyramid stable as the majority of the population ages and total fertility
rates continue to decline.
China and India’s Population Projection
Fast forward to today, and the policy is still in place, but to a lesser
effect. Since early 2016, families have been allowed to have two
children – but even with this change in place, China still has a self-
inflicted demographic disaster on its hands.

China’s “population pyramid” is not really a pyramid at all – in the

coming decades, it’ll look more like a single pillar stuck propping up a
burgeoning elderly demographic of people born before 1979.

And over time, the unintended and ongoing effects of population

control will be extremely impactful on China’s future. As one example
of the emerging challenges, a recent estimate published in Scientific
American pegged China’s shortage of women at 62 million, creating a
situation where there’ll be millions of men who are unable to marry.

This gender imbalance exacerbates an already existing shortfall at the

younger end of China’s population spectrum – and the end result will
be a rapidly falling ratio of workers to retirees in the Chinese economy
India: A Workforce Peaking in 2050
By the year 2050, it’s estimated that
India’s workforce age population will
be comparable in size to that of
China’s today — over 800 million
people strong.

However, given that this is at least 30

years in the future, it raises all kinds of
questions around the economic
relevance of a “working age”
population in a landscape potentially
dominated by technologies such as
artificial intelligence and automation.
Different Paths While it’s clear that the world’s two most populous countries have
some key similarities, they are both on very different demographic
paths at the moment.

China’s population has plateaued and will eventually decline over

the remainder of the 21st century. There is plenty of room to grow
economically, but the weight of an aging population will create
additional social and economic pressures. By 2050, it’s estimated
that over one-third of the country will be 60 years or older.

On the other hand, India is following a more traditional

demographic path, as long as it is uninterrupted by drastic policy
decisions. The country will likely top out at 1.6-1.7 billion people,
before it begins to experience the typical demographic transition
already experienced by more developed economies in North
America, Europe, and Japan.

And by the time the Indian workforce age group hits 800+ million
people, it will be interesting to see how things interplay with the
world’s inevitable technological shift to automation and a
changing role for labor.
Source https://www.visualcapitalist.com/population-pyramids-compared/