On Society and Economy: A Descriptive Study on

Attitudes toward Demographic Transition in Naga City

ATENEO DE NAGA UNIVERSITY

Bagumbayan Sur, Naga City

In partial fulfillment of the requirements in

CONTEMPORARY WORLD

Gastilo, Symoun Paulo F.

Luna, Jann Dave DC.

Pante, Karl Francis

Sinson, Mark Aldrin

Turiano, Bianca Angela Marie

SOCS103 - N10

Emmanuel Vito C. Abejero

Professor
 Chapter I
INTRODUCTION

Background of the Study

In their latest press release on state poverty rates, the Philippines Statistics Authority

(PSA) reported that 18.1 percent of the Filipino population, given their per capita income, is

incapable of promulgating their basic needs. This preliminary finding conducted for the Family

Income Expenditure Survey primarily renders that about 19.99 million Filipinos live below the

country’s poverty threshold. These findings were in the year 2020.

The World Bank ensues and summarizes these aforementioned assessments regarding the

poverty headcount ratio released by PSA in the previous years (see Figure 1) from 1991 to 2018.

In observation, there was a significant poverty reduction from 1994 to 2018, with the percentage

decreasing by 24.5 percent (1994, 40.6%; 2018, 16.1%). This draw-up only shows progress and

potential for eradicating poverty in the country.

Figure 1

Poverty Headcount Ratio at National Poverty Lines in the Philippines.

 However, as mentioned, in 2020, there was again an increase of 2%. Furthermore, this is

still not in consideration of the pandemic that occurred in recent years, as the census was

conducted pre-pandemic. Criticisms of the PSA’s current model mention the insufficient data and

the unrealistic threshold of $1.41 a day for a family of five. Hence, these data from the PSA only

render that despite reducing the number of Filipinos in poverty, there is still room for

improvement. There is a need to understand what can be the root of the problem and, ergo, a

resolution.

The population age structure in most countries is rapidly changing. Countries have an

opportunity to experience rapid economic growth given the right policies in their economic

development, health, education, labor market, and commerce. This rare window of opportunity

is crucial to boost their demographic transition, Mapa (2015).

The demographic transition refers to the correlation between changes in age structure and

economic development. The theory demonstrates the natural progression of a population

contingent on the advancement of the country.

For example, R. Steves (2014) remarked Denmark as being the least populous country in

Western Europe while having the most contented and happiest people in the world. Danes trust

their government for almost everything, from healthcare to the railway system. They are more

focused on being a socialistic country rather than individualism. Being the least populous

country in western Europe, together with the government’s active role, supports the idea that a

low fertility rate has direct positive effects on economic growth.

Moreover, in the years 1965-1999, demographic transition accounts for a third of the

economic growth of East Asian economic tigers: South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, and

Thailand. Additionally, economies that followed the same economic growth model were termed
“Economic Tiger Cubs” during this time. These countries are the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam,

Malaysia, and Indonesia.

However, the Philippines, as opposed to these other Southeast and East Asian countries,

failed to attain a similar demographic transition. The gradual drop in fertility rates has hindered

the Philippines from achieving such a transition resulting in our current disposition. (Mapa,

2015). Thus, Filipinos are currently experiencing a quality of life with sluggish standards, as

evidenced by the census of PSA mentioned above. With this, it is imperative that the 21st

century could bring shortages of food, water, fuel, land, and other necessities, leading to a

crowded and hungry population needing stability and health (Umali, 1992).

According to Mapa (2015), as the demographic window of opportunity closes fast, the

Philippines may find itself in a demographic trap instead of transitioning. This rare window of

opportunity, attainable in 10 years, relies on Filipino people and whether or not they are willing

and open to reducing the desire for large families. As a result, the change may help the country

achieve equilibrium among fertility and mortality rates to boost the demographic transition in the

third stage and consequently better the country’s socio-economic status and its constituents’

quality of life.

Given these findings, the researchers decided to practice the theory on a smaller scale.

Naga City is a 1st class, developing, and independent city in Bicol known as the center of

regional development in the fields of culture, trade, commerce, and religion. Naga has been

continuously awarded the Department of Trade and Industries’ Overall Most Competitive

Component City in the country (2020). On the other hand, Naga is a city of youth, with children

and youth aged 24 and under constituting more than half (55% of the total population). Females

outnumbered males by 52% to 48% in 2010 of the total labor force, and approximately 57%, or
estimated 56,726 people, are considered economically active. The unemployed labor force was

estimated to be 3,116, accounting for approximately 5.8% of the economically active population.

This census puts Naga in a position to benefit from the demographic dividend, as

economically active citizens outnumber the young and elderly.

In conclusion, the researchers decided to utilize factors present in countries that grew

through the transition and apply it to the City of Naga. With this, the researchers will determine

the city’s willingness and current disposition for the change.

Statement of the Problem

The study aims to fabricate a descriptive study on Naga City’s potential to transition to

the third stage of the Demographic Transition. Specifically, it seeks to establish the following

considerations:

1) Developmental factors for the third stage of transition,

2) Inclinations of the locality of Naga in terms of

a) Family Planning and Contraceptives,

b) Education,

c) Health Services,

d) Women Empowerment

3) Disposition of the residents towards fertility rate reduction, in general, as a

condition of demographic transition

Relevance of the Study

This study aims to determine the attitudes towards the demographic transition and of

improving the quality of life of Naga City’s residents through the application and evaluation of

other countries’ progress. Specifically, the study would benefit the following:
 The City Government of Naga City. The local administration will benefit from this

study, for they will be able to use the results of this study for future plans and actions in the

community.

Residents. The residents will be educated on improving their quality of life due to the

reduction of conception.

Future Researchers. They will be able to use our data to relate to their studies.

Scope and Delimitations

This study will only focus on the local economy of Naga City, Camarines Sur. The

impact and factors out of the control of the researchers, such as the economy and market at the

national and international levels, are beyond the scope of this paper. Moreover, the respondents

of the study will only be city residents given varying age demographics in the range of 18 years

and above.

In the evaluation of the researchers towards the disposition of the city’s residents, it is in

emphasis that the synthesis would only focus on the current thinking of residents through

questionnaires. An in-depth evaluation of the impacts and causes of their responses is to be left

to the professionals.

Moreover, specific policies that the government should implement are outside the scope

of this study. Nonetheless, the researchers will give appropriate recommendations on areas in

which there is potential improvement depending on the outcome of the study’s census.

More importantly, the identified variables affecting the demographic transition used in

this paper are only those inferred in relevant studies. Thus, in effect, other determinants that may

not have been considered is not a part of the scope of this paper.
Definition of Terms

Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR). The percentage of women who use or whose

partner uses at least one contraception method.

Demographic Transition. It pertains to the change in birth and death rates of a country.

Goldilocks Period. A period wherein the fertility rate is neither low nor high.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR). The average number of live births to a woman or group of

women over the course of her lifetime. This is usually based on age-specific fertility rates

referring to women between the ages of 15 and 49 (PSA).

 Chapter II

REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE AND STUDIES

This chapter of the paper presents a review of related literature and studies.

RELATED LITERATURE

Demographic Transition Theory

Libretexts (2021) defines the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) as the correlation

between the demographics, birth and death rate, to a country’s economic growth. These countries

undergo the different stages of the model as the demographics are significantly affected by

external factors such as socio and economic growth or decline.

Equivocally, Mapa defines the transition as the development of a population from high

mortality and fertility rates to low ones. This leads to an age distribution or different age

population affecting how a country’s economy work. Workforces in the second phase of the

theory are one positive side of the phase since there are more workers and adequate employment

opportunities, this will result in more people paying taxes, and different services are offered for

development. However, controlling the fast phase of the growing working age group should be

considered (2015).

Demographic Dividend and Demographic Window of Opportunity

Kenton (2021) defines Demographic Dividend as the Economic growth brought about by

the change in age structure. Change in age structure is mainly caused by the decreasing rates of

death and birth. Countries with low birth and death rates have high economic growth. Because of

the low birth rate, workers tend to increase their productivity because they are serving fewer

people and will be able to focus more on their work. Higher productivity means higher income,
so the excess funds of a facility can be used in other areas that need funding. This leads to

accelerated economic growth.

The study by Mapa (2015) stated that the Philippines failed to reach impactful economic

growth with its demographic transition. Opposite to its neighboring countries, which achieve

about one-third, the Philippines has a high population growth rate due to the slow decline of the

fertility rate. This slow fertility rate decline caused the country to not fully utilize its

demographic dividend. At the same time, a change in structure is happening and will close the

demographic window of opportunity.

Phases of Demographic Transition Theory

According to E.G Dolan (n.d), “Demographic transition refers to a population cycle that

begins with a fall in the death rate, continues with a phase of rapid population growth, and

concludes with a decline in the birth rate.” In the article titled “The theory of Demographic

Transition 5 stages”, Kiran (2020) defined the five stages of demographic transition:

The first stage of demographic transition stresses that the state of the country is

underdeveloped. In this stage, the growth of death and birth rate is high. Essential facilities like

banks, schools, and transportation are not yet in the stage of development. The main reason for

the high birth rate is that people are not educated about family planning. Due to the high birth

rate, resources like food and other basic needs become limited and are the main reason for the

high death rate.

The second stage of demographic transition states that the economy of the country is

starting to develop. It implies that basic facilities like agriculture, the medical field, and

education are getting better. Death rates became lower because of better commodities like food

and medicines. However, the birth rate stayed the same. Due to the rising employment
opportunities, people believe that the more children they have, the more income they bring to the

family.

The third stage of demographic transition states that people started to try contraceptives

to reduce the birth rate. Due to better education given to the people, they start to think that they

cannot support big families, and they become aware of the risks when having more children.

The fourth stage of demographic transition stresses that the population is growing slower.

In this stage, the rate of birth and death is equally decreasing. This gave more room for economic

and social development, but because of this, the standard of living rose. Due to the expansion of

education, old beliefs and superstitions about having a family have been discarded. This led to a

decline in the birth rate.

Lastly, the fifth stage of demographic transition states that the rate of death is higher than

the rate of birth. Due to the higher rate of death, population growth reduces.

Government Policies

Family Planning

In 1962, an immediate effect of family planning programs with contraception methods

such as condoms, oral contraceptives, and IUDs took place in East Asian countries such as South

Korea, Hongkong, Thailand, and Singapore. As for the developing countries, the program

implementation and success rate were deemed to take a long time (de Silva & Tenreyro, 2017).

The Philippines, as a developing country, did not attain such development, particularly in poor

communities. In 2013, the poorest, which is 20 percent of the total population, accounted for a

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 5.2 compared to the average 3.0 average TFR of the whole

population.
 As mentioned by Mapa (2015), three possible sources of future fertility or population

growth are identified: unwanted fertility, mostly known as unwanted pregnancy, wanted fertility,

and population momentum, with 16, 19, and 65 percent, respectively. The overall fertility rate of

the country can be significantly decreased through government intervention. The Republic Act

No. 10354 implementation, titled "An Act Providing for a National Policy on Responsible

Parenthood and Reproductive Health," will primarily target poor households in an effort to

reduce unplanned pregnancies. A 90 percent success rate of the implementation could boost

demographic transition wherein the goldilocks period is attainable within a 10-year period.

Though many countries have successfully provided and implemented modern

contraceptive methods to reduce fertility rates, it is also evident that some traditional countries

with predominantly Muslim or Catholic countries have difficulties accepting these programs.

Mapa (2015) states that while there is an urgent need for feasible policies such as the use of

modern contraceptives method to reduce the fertility rate, which primarily targets unwanted

fertility, it is also essential to take into consideration how to reduce the wanted fertility and the

population momentum rate by means of encouraging the society to reduce family size. In

accordance with de Silva and Tenreyro (2017), it is coherent that the willingness of the country

to accept these programs and to reduce the desire to have large families is a crucial factor in

attaining demographic transition.

A study by Rarani et al. (2021) shows that the contributing factors that help the decline in

the Fertility rate in the Middle East and North African (MENA) regions such as Turkey,

Lebanon, and Iran, like other parts of the world are healthcare-related, economic, cultural, and

political. It is highlighted that the increase in women’s educational attainment and labor or

employment has helped reduce the overall Total Fertility Rate (TFR). Westley and colleagues
(2010) the decrease in the number of marriages is an important factor in the reduction of TFR.

Accordingly, the role of the government’s indirect policies was important in the decline of TFR

in MENA regions. China and India’s child policy was an effective indirect government policy

that played an important role in reducing the TFR of their respective country.

According to Du and Yang (2014), one factor that led to the rapid economic growth of

china is the strict population policy. The state policy was called "later, longer, and fewer"

encouraging having fewer children and having late marriage to have a gap in births. However, a

stricter approach was used: having one child per woman to achieve not growing more than 1.2

billion in total population. This realization was identified after World War II. China believes that

the swelling growth of the population hinders economic development. They prioritized

government policies controlling the fast population growth, such as different family planning

methods. The one-child policy's strict implementation resulted in declining fertility rates in

China beginning in the year 1965. The lesson of China's demographic transition is that it does

not only demonstrate how to slow down population growth. It positively impacts social and

economic development through the population's changing structures and the government's active

participation.

McNicoll (2006), as mentioned in Mapa (2015), identified similar factors and policies

that helped decline TFR in the attainment of demographic transition of the "East Asian

Economic Miracle" composed of China, Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan,

and Vietnam. Women's education, labor participation, and child health were identified as

determinants. These factors were critical in lowering the TFR, which are feasible solutions to the

rapid population growth.

Education

According to Murtin (2013), education is a long-term determinant of demographic

transition and can be considered the main factor in health improvements. The study found that in

the adult population, education plays a significant role in mortality, both total and infant, and life

expectancy. Thus, prioritizing education in a country is one indicator that a country would have a

decline in fertility rate. This is supported by the study of Frini and Muller (2012), who pointed

out that education is directly related to fertility rate and economic growth. Education among age

groups triggers fertility rate in both the short and long run and boost economic growth.

Health Services

A condition brought about by the demographic transition is both low fertility and

mortality. A study by Grundy and Murphy (2015) states that understanding proper health and

healthcare needs are a requirement for the forecast of population size. According to Khan and

Hashmani (2018), the major driver of excess mortality in low and middle-income countries is

inadequate health services. Moreover, tendencies in Europe and Central Asia proved to be the

same; improving health services such as preventive measures can combat economic challenges

(Bussolo, Koettl, & Sinnott, 2015).

Determinants

Women Empowerment (Education of Women, Female Labor Force)

According to Rarani et al. (2021), high attainment in education cause women to postpone

marriage and childbearing. Similarly, Adio and Ercole (2005) the decline in TFR were due to

women having higher educational attainment or background, employment status, and high living

standards. The Philippines National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) in 2017 shows

that, on average, in urban areas, women have average children of 2.4, while in rural areas,

women have average children of 2.9. It was found that women with no education had average

children of 4.6 and women with a college education had an average of 2.0, while those women

from the wealthiest households had average children of 1.7. This data by NDHS shows that

women have the highest rate of early pregnancy in the poorest community along with little to no

education than women in the wealthiest community and households.

Evidence suggests that the variation of the educational group among women correlates

with fertility and the use of the contraceptive method in developing and developed countries.

Women with higher levels of education are more likely to know about modern contraceptives

and use new birth control techniques (Kim, 2016).

Accordingly, the Family Health Survey (FHS) results from 2011 reveal a correlation

between married women's educational attainment and their socioeconomic status, and their use

of modern family planning. Higher-educated women are more likely than less-educated women

to use some form of contraception. Women preferred modern contraceptive methods, such as oral

and ligation, over outdated ones, regardless of their educational level. The Contraceptive

Prevalence Rate (CPR) among women in poor households was 43.1 percent, while for women in
non-poor households was 51.3. The significantly higher prevalence of female sterilization is the

main factor for this discrepancy.

According to PSA, the employment situation shows that an estimated 41.1 million are

participating in the labor force out of the 73.7 million 15 and above population. April 2020.

Compared to women, the employment rate among men was higher at 61.9 percent than the

employment rate among women, which was 38.1 percent, wherein out of five employed people,

three of them are men. Of the 33.8 million employed persons, 27.6 percent are 25 to 34 years

old, followed by 24 percent in the 35 to 44 years old age group and 19.3 percent in the 45 to 54

years old age group (see Figure 2).

Figure 2

Percent Distribution of Employed Persons by Sex and Age Group: April 2020

On the other hand, data shows that the majority of 32.7 million unemployed people who

are 15 years old and above were female. Females, which comprise 65.8 percent, include students,

homemakers, retired people, and persons with disability. Almost half, or 41.4 percent, of 32.7
million accounted for 15 to 24 years old, where 22.6 percent were females and 18 percent were

males (see Figure 3).

Figure 3

Percent Distribution of Population 15 Years and Over Who Were Not in the Labor Force by Sex

and Age Group: April 2020

Kim (2016) suggests that better-educated women desire fewer children than less-educated

women. Better-educated women may believe that having and raising children will be more

expensive because they will lose income, and it will be more time-intensive than working in

labor. However, educated women marrying educated men suggests that bearing more children is

a viable option or can be taken into consideration. Accordingly, Mapa (2015), in determining the

correlation between female labor force participation and fertility, prominent economic theories

like Easterlin's (1973) and others have provided support for such empirical studies. It suggests

that male income and labor participation play a role in influencing the female to participate in the

labor force and fertility.

Health of Children

Two theories account for the inverse association between mortality and fertility. The

theory about child survival, which addresses parent’s apprehension of the causes of infant death

in their social environments while on replacement theory describes parents’ responses to the

occurrence of mortality in their own families. According to Scrimshaw (1978), as mentioned in

Mapa (2015), numerous theories and hypotheses, including the demographic transition theory,

the child replacement hypothesis, and the child survival hypothesis, are manifestations of the

assumption that high fertility is a necessary biological and behavioral response to high mortality.

The idea of child survival, in which couples are trying to keep a certain number of children alive

until maturity, and the theory of demographic transition, declining fertility after a certain age,

these two examples are part of child replacement theories. Two types of fertility reactions to

child mortality are discussed by Ben-Porath(1976): (a) hoarding, or the parents’ reaction to

expected mortality, and (b) replacement, or the parents’ reaction to the actual death of a child in

the home. The researcher demonstrates that experiencing mortality decreases the risk of ending

at a given birth and shortens the intervals between births using micro data from prospectively

reported births of Israeli women.

The determined desirable fertility is the fertility rate observed if all “unwanted” births

were avoided; in other words, births that would result in more live births than the specified

desired number of children are eliminated (Rutsein & Rojas, 2006). We use the number of

children a woman would ideally like to have during her entire life as a proxy for her preference

for having children who will survive them. The second is intended for desired fertility. It differs

from factors unconnected to desires, such as infant death or the accessibility of modern

contraceptive tools, even if it is influenced by the optimum number of infants. In particular,

when women replace children who have passed away with new births to attain the intended

number of surviving children, the total fertility rate can surpass the desired number of children

(Bongaarts, 2011) (Silva & Tenreyro, 2017, p. 58).

By controlling for economic performance and labor market regulations, Hondroyiannis

and Papapetrou (2002) demonstrate that, over the long run, a decline in infant death rates reduces

fertility rates. Some scientists are still dubious about the impact of child mortality on fertility. A

single-stage decision model, according to Sah(1991) as mentioned in Mapa (2015), can only

provide a blurry explanation for the mortality fertility relationship. Using a more intricate

fertility model, he demonstrated the opposite: fertility rises as the death rate falls. Additionally,

Dyson and Murphy (1985) demonstrated that, occasionally, changes in other parameters, such as

a fall in widowhood and disease-related sterility, can cause a temporary increase in the fertility

rate in conjunction with a decline in the death rate. Using data from Pakistan and Bangladesh,

two countries with somewhat high fertility and mortality rates, Chowddhury et al. (1976) found

no conclusive evidence of an increased desire to have children in households where a child had

died. To conclude, studies do not agree even if infant deaths decrease, that can reduce the rate of

fertility in further conditions.

RELATED STUDY

Female Education and Its Impact on Fertility, Kim, J. (2016) studied the correlation

between women’s education and fertility across different countries. This paper addresses the

relationship between women’s health, children’s health, inclination to the desired number of

children, and family planning methods. A strength of this study is that it presents the factors that

affect the decision-making of women and is a recently-made study. This paper strengthens the

current study’s identified determinants, particularly on women's empowerment. However, the

scope of this study tackles only a small number of countries in Asia, Europe, and America. The

Philippines and most big countries are not included in this study.

Rarani et al. (2021) “Contributing factors to the total fertility rate declining trend in the

Middle East and North Africa: a systemic review” a recent study on the Middle East and North

African (MENA) region regarding the noticeable reduction in total fertility rate (TFR) in the

region from 2000 to 2016. The study shows factors that were identified and classified under

healthcare, economic, social, cultural, and political were important in reducing fertility in the

MENA region Accordingly, this review study strengthens the study of Mapa (2015) where

similar factors and determinants such as healthcare, labor participation, and child health are

considered critical factors in lowering TFR. The study highlights that the identified and classified

factors play a crucial role and may serve as a basis for making feasible solutions such as

government policies that will help boost demographic transition.

Demographic Transition and Labor Market Changes: Implications for Economic

Development in China, Du and Yang (2014), focus on how China’s strict policy on controlling its

fast-growing population contributes to the impressive use of the demographic transition in

realizing economic growth. The strength of this study is that it relates to the framework that the
researchers will use, specifically how the active role of the government contributes to achieving

a low fertility rate needed in the transition.

D. Umali (1992) in his paper “Has the Philippines back into a Demographic Trap”,

emphasized the importance of reconsidering the current polarized population in the Philippines.

It primarily discusses the situation of the nation at the start of its entry in the second stage of the

transition in the 1960s until his writing. In retrospect, the paper assesses the consequences of

stagnation within the stage and the continuing increase in the population of the country. In other

words, it considers the demographic transition of the Philippines, mainly on what will happen to

the country if it fails to transition to the third stage of demographic transition theory, thus leading

to the demographic trap. Most importantly, although outdated, Umali’s paper proves to remain

relevant as it did in 1992, as many researchers call for the same transition. The publication year

only emphasizes the need for the transition, as this current paper intends to do. Hence, with this,

the researchers intend to strengthen this study through an updated view of the theory.

Demographic Sweet Spot and Dividend in the Philippines: The Window of Opportunity

is Closing Fast, Mapa, D. (2015), a study that focuses on the population structure of the

Philippines using census data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) and projections of

the United Nation (UN) in estimating the time where the country will enter the window of

opportunity due to demographic transition or dynamics of age structure. It includes the factors

that positively affected their respective economic growth, specifically in Southeast Asia:

government policies regarding controlling population growth and the indicators or determinants

of having a low fertility rate that leads to economic growth. The observation and analysis of this

paper are relevant as it describes the current situation of the Philippines and addresses root areas

to improve in which the nation can grow spontaneously. Similarly, the researchers for this paper
will focus on how inclined Naga’s residents are to take advantage of the changing structure of the

population in the country. The researchers are able to utilize the factors described by the

statistician in their study, supported by the much research in the section of related literature.
 Chapter III

METHODOLOGY

This chapter consists of the theoretical framework, conceptual framework, research

design, ethical considerations, questionnaire, and statistical treatment.

Theoretical framework

The research paradigm (see Figure 2) represents the flow and relationships in the theory

of the concepts acquired in the review of related literature and studies. Demographic Transition

is defined by the balance of low fertility and mortality in a country that is said to lead to

economic development and improved quality of life. This low fertility is indicated by

government policies and determinants related to women and children. Government policies are

family planning, education, health services, labor market, and economy. On the other hand,

determinants include women's empowerment and children's health.

Figure 2

Theoretical framework
Conceptual Framework

The conceptual framework of the study (see Figure 3) represents the collection and

analysis of data required to complete the study. The needed input is the respondent's inclinations

to pre-identified variables related to the theory and to the condition of the theory itself. The

research process is a questionnaire to be answered by the said respondents. Finally, the output,

after analysis, will yield the feasibility result of the study.

Figure 3

Conceptual framework

Research Design

This study is descriptive research that is both primary and secondary. The data to be

analyzed will be collected through a literature review and survey questionnaires. The researchers

will pose predetermined questions to a group of respondents located in Naga City to their

inclinations towards identified variables and their disposition towards low fertility generally.

These statements will be rated accordingly with the use of the Likert scale.
Ethical Consideration

In this research, the answers of the respondents to the survey that will be conducted will

be treated with utmost confidentiality with respect to their identity. The researchers will ensure

that the answers will not be leaked and will only be used exclusively for the research’s purpose.

Sampling Techniques

The researchers will utilize stratified sampling with subgroups categorized according to

age demographics. Given the most recent population census on Naga City and the confidence

level of 95%, the researchers will account for a total sample size of 250 respondents based on a

population of 209,170 (PSA, 2020). On the other hand, the sample size used in each subgroup is

proportional to the PSA's most recent statistical table on age demographics in Naga City (2015)

(see Table 1). Accordingly, Table 2 shows the calculated sample sizes for each age group: for

ages 18-24 is 82. For ages, 25-34 is 60. For ages 35-44 is 48; for ages 45-54 is 17; for ages 55-64

is 25; and lastly, 65 and over is 18.

Table 1
PSA 2015 Age Group Distribution

Age Groups Population Percentage

18-24 21.14

25-34 15.45

35-44 12.42

45-54 4.35

55-64 6.41

65 and over 4.68

Table 2
Sample Size by Age Groups

Age Groups Sample Size

18-24 82

25-34 60

35-44 48

45-54 17

55-64 25

65 and over 18

Questionnaire

In order to obtain the needed primary data for analysis, the researchers utilized a survey

questionnaire with predetermined structured statements to be rated using the Likert scale (see

Form 1). Questions number 1-5 answer the variables in terms of family planning and

contraceptives. While question number 6 considers education, question number 7 pertains to

health services; number 8 is women empowerment. Finally, questions number 9-10 refer to the

disposition of residents towards the concept of fertility rate reduction.

Statistical Treatment

The data gathered will be subjected to quantitative statistical analysis. Given the sample

size, the researchers will use the central tendency mode to gather the most frequent response

from the target sample. The data will be analyzed in order to get its results.
Form 1

Survey Questionnaire

On Economy and Society: A Descriptive Study on the Demographic Transition of Naga City

Questionnaire

Name (Optional): ________________________________________________________

Age: ______________ Gender: _______________ Barangay: ________________
Direction: Using the Likert scale below, please put a (✓) check mark on the boxes that correspond to your answer or
response.
Legend: SD - Strongly Disagree, D - Disagree, N - Neutral, A - Agree, SA - Strongly Agree

Questions SD D N A SA
1. Having children is the least of my priorities.
Dai ko masyadong prayoridad ang pag-aki.
2. Having a family should be planned carefully.
Dapat tig-iisipan ang pag-buo ning pamilya.
3. The use of contraceptives is important.
Importante ang kontrasepsiyon.
4. My financial capabilities are irrelevant to my desire to have
children
Dai na dapat iniisip ang pinansiyal na kakayahan sa pagdesiyon na
magkaigwang aki.
5. Vasectomy is a valid form of birth control method.
Sarong porma ning birth control ang basektomi para sa mga lalake.
6. Sex education should be part of the curriculum.
Kabali dapat sa pig-tutukdo ang sekswal na edukasyon.
7. The government puts significant effort towards public health
services.
Tig tatawan importansiya kang gobyerno ang mga pampublikong
serbisyong kalusugan.
8. Women are meant to be housewives and to stay at home.
Dapat sanang maging housewife ang mga babae.

9. Having high population slows down economic development.

Nagpapabagal kang ekonomiya ang dakol na populasyon.
10. I would choose financial prosperity for everyone, even if it
means having fewer children.
Pipilion ko ang maginhawang buhay pinansyal, miski mayo o diit
ang aki ko.
 Chapter IV

ANALYSIS

This chapter presents the results and analysis of the data gathered by the researchers

through the survey questionnaires conducted to different age groups in Naga City.

Data Analysis

The researchers summarized the collected raw data gathered from the survey forms

through tabulations.

The following statistical treatments were then applied for all responses.

In this study, descriptive statistics on an ordinal level was used. As the data derived was

based on the Likert scale, the researchers calculated the frequency of the responses from the ten

propositions and used mode in finding the central tendency. The tabulated data were then

graphed in two bars graphs in order to organize and summarize the results.

Below are the tabulated raw data acquired from the survey along is the identification of

the central tendency.

Q1 Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree Mode

18-24 7 10 21 10 34 Strongly Agree

25-34 11 5 25 6 13 Neutral
35-44 14 9 9 6 10 Strongly Disagree
45-54 5 6 1 3 2 Disagree
55-64 9 3 4 3 6 Strongly Disagree
65+ 10 2 1 5 Strongly Disagree
TOTAL 56 33 62 29 70 Strongly Agree
 Q2 Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree Mode

18-24 0 0 1 7 74 Strongly Agree

25-34 2 58 Strongly Agree
35-44 4 1 10 10 23 Strongly Agree
45-54 5 6 3 1 2 Disagree
55-64 1 1 8 15 Strongly Agree
65+ 1 2 15 Strongly Agree
Total 11 7 15 30 187 Strongly Agree

Q3 Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree Mode

18-24 2 10 18 52 Strongly Agree

25-34 3 2 13 42 Strongly Agree
35-44 4 1 10 10 23 Strongly Agree
45-54 4 2 1 6 4 Agree
55-64 7 5 7 6 Strongly Disagree
65+ 11 1 2 1 3 Strongly Disagree
Total 31 4 30 55 130 Strongly Agree

Q4 Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree Mode

18-24 40 12 9 9 12 Strongly Disagree

25-34 42 4 8 2 4 Strongly Disagree
35-44 25 6 7 5 5 Strongly Disagree
45-54 5 6 3 1 2 Disagree
55-64 10 8 1 5 1 Strongly Disagree
65+ 15 1 2 Strongly Disagree
Total 137 37 28 24 24 Strongly Disagree
 Q5 Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree Mode

18-24 2 4 32 17 27 Neutral
25-34 19 3 6 17 15 Strongly Disagree
35-44 8 5 13 11 11 Neutral
45-54 2 2 3 4 6 Strongly Agree
55-64 4 4 9 6 2 Neutral
65+ 10 1 5 2 Strongly Disagree
Total 45 19 68 55 63 Neutral

Q6 Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree Mode

18-24 1 1 3 16 61 Strongly Agree

25-34 1 1 3 11 44 Strongly Agree
35-44 2 3 10 33 Strongly Agree
45-54 2 2 3 4 6 Strongly Agree
55-64 1 5 6 13 Strongly Agree
65+ 4 14 Strongly Agree
Total 5 6 17 51 171 Strongly Agree

Q7 Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree Mode

18-24 10 19 20 17 16 Neutral
25-34 10 6 11 11 22 Strongly Agree
35-44 9 5 7 11 16 Strongly Agree
45-54 1 1 2 7 6 Agree
55-64 4 4 4 7 6 Agree
65+ 1 4 7 6 Agree
Total 35 35 48 60 72 Strongly Agree

Q8 Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree Mode

18-24 68 8 3 2 1 Strongly Disagree

25-34 39 6 13 1 1 Strongly Disagree

35-44 36 5 5 0 2 Strongly Disagree

45-54 12 4 0 0 1 Strongly Disagree

55-64 13 8 0 1 3 Strongly Disagree

65+ 8 4 3 3 Strongly Disagree

Total 176 35 24 4 11 Strongly Disagree

 Q9 Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree Mode

18-24 4 6 23 25 24 Agree

25-34 0 3 13 24 20 Agree

35-44 1 1 10 20 16 Agree

45-54 2 2 4 3 6 Strongly Agree

55-64 1 3 4 8 9 Strongly Agree

65+ 4 1 4 3 6 Strongly Agree

Total 12 16 58 83 81 Agree

Q10 Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree Mode

18-24 1 2 19 22 38 Strongly Agree

25-34 1 2 7 14 36 Strongly Agree

35-44 2 4 16 26 Strongly Agree

45-54 1 3 5 8 Strongly Agree

55-64 1 1 3 6 14 Strongly Agree

65+ 3 3 4 8 Strongly Agree

Total 3 11 39 67 130 Strongly Agree

Family Planning and Contraceptives

Figure 4.1

Responses of the Sample Size in Naga City for Question 1.

 Figure 4.1 shows the summary of the results for the first question which tackle the

prioritization of having children.

It can be seen that the majority of the 18-24 years old respondents strongly agreed that

having children is the least of their priorities. It indicates that younger people tend to focus more

on their academics and their work. In the age group of 25-34, the majority of the respondents are

neutral about having children. Since this is the marrying age group, people tend to have different

priorities whether to conceive a child or make their lives successful. In the age group of 35-44,

55-64, and 65+, Majority of the respondents strongly disagreed and it signifies that they

prioritize having children. People in this age group already met the requirements for raising

children like financial stability and readiness to conceive or adopt a child. In the age group of

45-54, respondents disagreed that it is the least of their priorities to have children. It means that

they are ready to conceive or adopt a child.

Figure 4.2

Responses of the Sample Size in Naga City for Question 2.

Figure 4.2 shows the summary of the results for the second question which talks about

the importance of planning a family.

From the figure, it is inferable that almost all the age groups strongly agreed that family

should be planned carefully. The result is important in determining the ability of the Naguenians

to plan their families carefully. In the age group of 45-54, the majority of the respondents

disagreed that it is important to plan a family carefully. Some of the respondents in the age group

indicated that people should let God decide what would happen in our life. This can be a factor

on why some respondents disagreed on how it is important to plan a family.

Figure 4.3

Responses of the Sample Size in Naga City for Question 3.

The majority of those between the ages of 18 and 24 agreed, as shown in Figure 4.3, that

using contraceptives is vital. It suggests that they are aware of the importance of safe sex. The

majority of people in the age group of 25 to 34 agreed to use contraceptives, which is another

similarity. It also makes sense that most people in the age range of 35 to 44 agreed to use

contraceptives in order to engage in safe sex given their ages. Contrary to the first three age

groups, there has been a change in the data for the 45–54 age group, where the majority of

people did not consent to use contraceptives. The 55–64 age group has similar answers, although

the results suggest a slight shift in that some of them strongly oppose using contraceptives. The

use of contraceptives is something that most people in the age range of 65 and up strongly

oppose. The information provided demonstrates that age influences how decisions are made.
Younger people place more emphasis on engaging in safe sex than older people do. Age had a

significant influence on how important the use of contraceptives was.

Figure 4.4

Responses of the Sample Size in Naga City for Question 4.

Figure 4.4 shows that the majority of them firmly believed that having the children they

desired would depend on their financial situation. This statistic demonstrates that the majority of

those aged 18 to 24 strongly disapprove. It implies that they are more aware of the importance of

raising a family, more concerned with their academic careers, and not yet thinking about starting

a family. Similar to the age group of 25–34, those in the 35–44 age range prioritize their careers

over starting a family. They also think strategically and practically about their financial situation.

The age group 45 - 54 is also considered financial in decision making of having a child likewise
in the age group of 55-64 and 65 up. The decision to have a child is also taken into consideration

when one is 45 to 54 years old, as well as when one is 55 to 64 and 65 and older. This

information suggests that one should think about their financial situation while considering

having children, and it demonstrates their knowledge and readiness.

Figure 4.5

Responses of the Sample Size in Naga City for Question 5.

Figure 4.5 demonstrates that attitudes on vasectomy as a reliable method of birth control

are neutral among people in the age group of 18 to 24. They are more capable of contemplating

alternative birth control methods, such as tablets or other methods, since they are more capable

of doing so. There are changes in the age range of 25 to 34 where there is an increase in the

number of people who disagree with having a vasectomy as a method of birth control. This
implies that while many people agreed that having a vasectomy is a legal way of birth control,

others disagreed. Ages 35 to 44 demonstrate their neutrality, coupled with ages 18 to 24

demonstrating that vasectomy is not the only birth control method. The majority of them

concurred while they were between the ages of 45 and 54. It suggests that they are more focused

on themselves and are no longer interested in having children. Of course, at that age, they are

also more likely to focus on their leisure activities. However, the majority of people in the 55–64

age group, where vasectomy has not yet been introduced and is still a relatively new procedure,

choose neutral. And the majority of people over 65 who strongly disagree with it are aware that

there are alternative procedures you may utilize that won't harm a person's internal organs. The

majority of people are on the neutral side, which means that there are other birth control methods

that can change vasectomy as a legitimate type of birth vasectomy. This interpretation

demonstrates that vasectomy has not yet been introduced to the public.
Education

Figure 4.6

Responses of the Sample Size in Naga City for Question 6

Figure 4.6 shows the perception of different age groups regarding sex education as a part

of the curriculum. Data showed that practically all age groups, from 18 to 65 and above, strongly

agree that sex education should be included in the curriculum. This suggests that the residents of

Naga are open to including sex education in the curriculum which is a crucial factor in

decreasing unwanted pregnancies. Moreover, it suggests that, regardless of age, sex education is

seen as an essential element of education.

Health Services

Figure 4.7

Responses of the Sample Size in Naga City for Question 7

Figure 4.7 shows the perspective of the participants toward the current public health

effort of the government. It showed that the majority of the participants, particularly in the

working class from ages 25 to 54, strongly agree that the government puts an emphasis on public

health. However, the younger age group 18 to 24 years old has a different opinion regarding the

effort of the government toward public health. It showed that the majority of the younger

generation is neutral about it, and many disagree, indicating dissatisfaction with the current

public health efforts of the government.

Women Empowerment

Figure 4.8

Responses of the Sample Size in Naga City for Question 8

Figure 4.8 shows the perception of participants toward woman empowerment. As shown

in the data, almost all of the participants across all age groups strongly disagreed with the idea

that women are meant to be housewives and should stay at home. This suggests that

stay-at-home is regarded as outdated or irrelevant, and their economic participation is

considered necessary. This shows that Naga City is empowering women, which is critical for the

growth and stability of the economy and society as it leads to more opportunities for women in

the economy.
Fertility Rate Reduction

Figure 4.9

Responses of the Sample Size in Naga City for Question 9

Figure 4.9 shows the inclinations of the participants to a fertility rate reduction. It is

shown that the majority of the participants agreed that having a high population slows down

economic development. This suggests moreover, 45-year-olds and above strongly agreed on the

relationship between a high fertility rate and slow economic growth. It was revealed that Naga

city’s residents are inclined to the right mindset or attitude toward achieving economic growth

concerning the demographic transition theory.

Figure 4.10

Responses of the Sample Size in Naga City for Question 10

Figure 4.10 shows that the majority of the respondents would choose financial prosperity

rather than having many children. Every age group strongly favored having less children if it

means having financial freedom. This result is crucial in determining if the residents are prepared

in transitioning to a more economically competitive environment. The results suggest that Naga

city’s residents are ready for a transition needed for economic growth.
Summary of Findings

Accordingly, the following are the findings for the specific problems of the study aimed

to be answered by the researchers.

1. Developmental factors for the third stage of transition.

Using the method of literature review, the researchers were able to identify the

factors of family planning and contraceptives, education, health services, and women

empowerment to be key points in the transition and growth of a country in the 3rd stage

of demographic transition.

2. Inclinations of the locality of Naga in terms of

a. Family Planning and Contraceptives,

b. Education,

c. Health Services,

d. Women Empowerment

Family planning and the use of contraceptives are often viewed as talks

unwelcomed by society. However, given the five questions posed by the researchers to

the general public of Naga City, the majority welcomes and prefers the option. Five

questions were asked to the respondents regarding the topic with all resulting in a

favorable outcome to the transition. The population response strongly agrees with

having priorities other than just children and that creating a family should be thought and

planned for. This is in confirmation of their latter overall response of being strongly

disagree with the statement that financial capabilities are irrelevant to their financial

status. In addition, Naga City strongly agrees that contraceptives are important, albeit

only having neutral as their partaking in the topic of vasectomy.

 Education, on the other hand, was posed to the respondent with question six. In

the survey, 161 people strongly agree that sex education should be part of the

curriculum.

In terms of health services, question seven was met with a response of strongly

agree by the majority (72 respondents).

Lastly, women empowerment was perceived to be an already present factor in

Naga. The majority of 176 respondents strongly disagree that women's roles are just for

staying at home and taking care of family and children.

3. Disposition of the residents towards fertility rate reduction, in general, as a condition of

demographic transition.

Overall, the researchers also sought the general attitude of Naga City towards the

condition of the transition by posing questions nine and ten.

With this, the researchers obtain the response of agree (83) and strongly agree

(130) to the interdependency of economy and population, and choosing financial

prosperity over having many children, respectively.

 Chapter V

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

This chapter presents the conclusions and recommendations based on the findings

concurred in this feasibility study.

Conclusion

Based on the findings via qualitative analysis, it can be concluded that Naga City is

feasible for the third transition. The researchers, through a literature review, established the

following main factors to be universal determinants in the demographic transition of a nation:

family planning and contraceptives, education, health services, and women empowerment. These

factors ultimately lead to the primary variable necessary for the transition, a general reduction in

fertility rates. Although there is variance in the different responses of the residents regarding the

determinants it can be foreseen the potential for a transition in their answers.

Additionally, the following conclusions are drawn out from the findings of this study.

1. Having children is not the priority of the residents of Naga city. Slowing down fertility

growth and achieving one of the criteria for attaining demographic transition. Therefore,

it will boost economic growth in the country.

2. Family planning is important for Naga city’s residents despite having high fertility rates.

Government actions should put more attention on these insights to further advocate

family planning. This would result in lowering fertility rates and unwanted pregnancies.

3. Contraceptives are still considered despite having numerous teenage pregnancies.

However, more sex education is needed for some specific age groups such as in the older

generation.
4. Financial capabilities are considered in planning to have a family. Despite having a high

poverty rate, there is a positive inclination of all age groups, especially youth and

working class, towards the importance of financial capability. Finance is a major variable

in family planning. Thus, directly affecting controlling fertility growth rates.

5. Vasectomy is still new to the majority of Naga city’s residents.

6. All age groups strongly agreed that sex education should be part of the curriculum. This

shows that Naga city’s residents are ready for the implementation of sex education to the

curriculum, and education authorities should take into consideration this matter. Sex

education is vital in lowering birth rates.

7. Respondents strongly agreed with the government doing its best effort towards public

health services. However, there are many opposing this idea, especially in youth groups.

8. Every age group strongly disagreed with the idea that women should be housewives.

9. Most of the respondents agreed that having a high population slows down economic

development. This positive inclination is an indication of taking advantage of the

transition to further develop our country’s economy or at least in the city.

However, there are respondents who believe that government actions determine economic

growth despite having a high population. This is crucial in the demographic transition

theory since it opposes the key idea of the theory.

10. Every age group would choose financial prosperity for everyone, even if it means having

fewer children. This is a positive tendency because it would mean that it would lower

fertility rates and prioritization of careers over having many children.

 The researchers studied the demographic transition theory using international

studies thus, the factors and contexts are from different countries. The researchers

discussed how the demographic transition theory affected different countries such as the

Philippines,“East Asian Tigers”, and Denmark. With these, the researchers look at how

the said theory impact the economic growth of different nations. The researchers

concluded that this global transition means people become more connected as countries

developed making countries more interconnected with each other.

Furthermore, the researchers classified this globalization as a good type of

globalization because a cultural reset is happening that is beneficial for the future of

Filipinos but contrary to the old ones. This conclusion can observed on our survey. Due

to this globalization, the old values of Filipinos are now replaced by a new one, instead of

prioritizing more family members without thinking financial capabilities. Filipinos these

day considers the importance of financial stability.

Recommendations

Sex Education. Based on the findings via qualitative analysis, the researchers

recommend that sex education must be implemented in the younger age groups. Since these are

the age group that is most likely to engage in sexual activities. This will lead to a bloom in the

population in Naga City. Family planning programs in our city must be imposed strictly so that

people who are planning to have children will be guided thoroughly. Aside from that, older ones

can also have an interaction with the younger ones for the reason that they are more experienced

and can use it as a reflection of what they were planning in the near future.
 The City Government of Naga. The Government of Naga City must put a lot of effort in

making the quality of life of the residents of Naga better. They must focus on the regions where

it is hit by poverty since a lot of people here are not properly educated and well-informed about

family planning and the like.

Government Health Services. The findings from the study showed that there is

significant dissatisfaction from the age group 18 to 24 regarding the current public health

services. Since this age group is considered the future generation, it is important to consider their

perspective regarding the current situation. It is imperative that the current government health

services should be improved, thus the government should put more effort into this sector.

Future Researchers. This study may serve as a basis and reference for future research to

be conducted related to this topic.

It is suggested that future researchers utilize and expand their study to different

fast-developing cities in the country, preferably neighboring cities to observe, compare and

contrast whether the feasibility of attaining the third stage of demographic transition is

comparable to existing cities in the third stage.

Moreover, with the observation of a trend in the responses between the age groups, it is

suggested that future researchers establish the correlation between the two variables; specifically,

the age groups and the attitudes of the respondents towards the factors.
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