Bi-weekly Analysis

No. 18/2023; August 24, 2023 Kyiv, Ukraine

Reshaping Security: The Evolution of the Nordic

Countries' Role within Europe's Security Framework
By Viktoriia Vitsenko

Despite the Northern European countries' proximity, shared history, and cultural links, as well as their
similarities in many other areas like politics and business, there have traditionally been substantial
variations between them when it comes to their guiding principles for security policy. Within the
cooperation in this field of these countries, two dimensions should be outlined: regional (the five Nordic
countries) and international (within wider organizations). The most defining indicator has always been the
different membership models of these states in such regional organizations as NATO and the EU.

Diverse initial choices of institutional affiliation and security policy in Nordic countries were determined
by numerous different factors scoping from historical identity, political culture, and specific small nations'
politics. In this way, the countries chose their own security paths, which remained unchanged for a long
time, even during the Cold War.

In this article, the origins of the security architecture in northern Europe and the effect of its fragmentation
on the state of security in the region will be considered. In addition, the evolution of the security
architecture and its ability to eliminate potential threats primarily related to Russia will be analyzed.

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Regional Cooperation in the Nordic Countries: Defense Strategies and

Security Concerns

Historically, there was a different degree of
importance that these countries attach to Nordic
cooperation. Sweden and Finland have always
emphasized the importance and priority of the
Northern Dimension in their security policies. At
the same time, Norway and Iceland were much
more restrained in this regard. As for Denmark, it
generally considers the Northern Dimension to
be a third-order priority. Important regional
organizations are the Nordic Council of Ministers
(established in 1971) and the five-country
parliamentary body, the Nordic Council (1952).
Undoubtedly the most crucial organization is the
Nordic Defense Cooperation (NORDEFCO)
established in 2009, whose goal was to
strengthen the defense capabilities of member
countries by identifying areas of cooperation and
promoting effective solutions.
Cooperation within the framework of NORDEFCO
can be divided into two periods: before and after
2014. Until the time of Russia's attack on Ukraine
and the annexation of Crimea, the organization's
activity was quite sluggish and, in general, it was
often characterized as money-saving.
Interestingly, even Russia's attack on Georgia in
2008 did not have the proper effect, and
“relations as usual” with the aggressor country
were restored quite quickly. It was after 2014 that
NORDEFCO experienced a kind of revival because
the change in the geopolitical climate redefined
the goals of this organization's cooperation.
Collaboration in various joint projects has
significantly increased, so some of the most
significant events of this time period should be
singled out. In 2016, five countries signed the Easy
Access Agreement that allowed their armed
forces to use each other's air, sea, and land areas
in peacetime. In 2018, Sweden and Finland signed
a memorandum on military cooperation, which
allows the two countries to jointly carry out
operational planning in the event of a crisis or
war. In 2020, the defense ministers of Finland,
Sweden, and Norway signed a "Declaration of
Intent for Enhanced Operational Cooperation",
which aims at operational synergy and joint
planning in times of crisis or war. Taking into
account the further situation around Russia and
Ukraine, at that moment the Nordic countries
indeed showed foresight by developing such a
strategic tool to strengthen the protection of
their territories.

Regional security cooperation was mostly overshadowed by the one within NATO and was mostly deemed
to be a complementary element to it. Denmark and Norway were among the countries that relied on North
Atlantic Alliance the most, in particular emphasizing bilateral connections with the USA. As for Iceland,
since 1951, the USA, at the request of NATO, has provided the defense of this country. However, a serious
obstacle at that time was the remaining of Sweden and Finland outside NATO. In general, regional
cooperation did not play an important role during a long period primarily because of the political
fragmentation of this region, which in turn was significantly provoked by the great differences in options
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of membership in such organizations as NATO and the EU. Moreover, it was due to the absence of any
momentum from the outside that would clearly demonstrate the need for closer interaction.

Russia's Presence as a Constant Threat to the Nordic Region

The threat posed by Russia to the security of Northern European countries reached its peak only after
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, though in fact, the Russian factor has always been,
to a greater or lesser extent, very alarming and has always been the main security challenge for the
neighboring Scandinavian countries.

Above all, it has traditionally had a particularly strong influence on Finland. Firstly, this is explained by the
country's geographical position, since it shares its longest land border of 1,309 km with Russia. The second
reason is related to historical events, namely the occupation of Finland by the USSR in the previous
century, and therefore the presence in this Scandinavian country of the feeling of a further constant threat
from the Russian side. Finally, the most important reason is geopolitical, which in a certain way combines
the first two and includes the current political tension in the Arctic, the division of zones of influence there,
and the struggle for resources.

Thus, the defense policy of Finland has always
been tightly related to Russia. After Russia's
invasion of Ukraine in 2014, an important element
of Finland's defense policy was non-contractual
defense cooperation, primarily with such
countries as Sweden, Norway, the USA, Great
Britain, and Estonia. It is interesting that this
partly served as a substitute for NATO
membership. Although to a lesser extent, due to
geopolitical and geographical reasons as the
countries share a maritime border, Russia has
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also always caused similar serious concern for
Sweden related to military tension in the north.
As for Norway (it shares with Russia a 196 km
border that stretches almost to the North Pole),
after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014,
the country stopped military cooperation with
Russia. Moreover, political contacts were largely
limited or canceled altogether. For example,
Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg visited
Russia and met with the Russian president only
3

five years later, in 2019. One of the most
vulnerable points for Norway has always been
Spitsbergen. Russia's Northern Fleet, which is one
of Russia's four strategic fleets, is a stone's throw
from the Norwegian border and occupies a
central place in Russia's military strategy.
Nevertheless, realizing the need soon after that,
Nordic Countries' Diverse Cooperation
Perspectives
Reviewing the period from the foundation of the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization to the events
of 2022, it should be noted that the relations of
each of these countries with the Alliance were
unique. Three of the five Nordic countries, namely
Norway, Denmark, and Iceland, have been
members of NATO since 1949, i.e., they were
among the twelve founding states of the Alliance.
The countries of Sweden and Finland, which
declared themselves neutral and non-aligned and
for a long time held a position of non-adherence
to NATO, were radically different. The authorities
of Sweden, a country that has not been a party to
conflicts since 1814, at all declared that the war
was a thing of the past. It is noteworthy that the
Swedish army was reduced by almost 90% and
the air force and navy by approximately 70%.
Even the regiment responsible for the defense of
the strategically exposed island of Gotland in the
Baltic Sea was withdrawn in 2004.
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Norway, like most European countries, sought to
normalize relations with Russia. The new
government led by Jonas Gar Støre, which came
to power in 2021, stated on its platform that it
would "further develop bilateral cooperation with
Russia in the north".
with NATO: Historical
At the same time, Finland and Sweden have
always closely cooperated with NATO. In the
1990s, both of these countries decided to
officially change their defense policies from
neutral to militarily nonaligned. Soon after, both
of them joined NATO's Partnership for Peace
Program. It was Finland's accession to the
Partnership for Peace in 1994 and the Euro-
Atlantic Partnership Council in 1997 that initiated
cooperation between the countries and the
alliance. As a result of the NATO Summit in Wales
in 2014, Finland and Sweden, along with three
other countries, became Enhanced Opportunity
Partners (EOP) and participated in a number of
NATO arrangements, including the NATO
Response Force. Finland has become a partner
with enhanced capabilities. Being one of the most
active partners of NATO, Finland participated in
various operations and missions led by the
Alliance (in particular, in the Balkans, Iraq, and
Afghanistan). In 2017, Finland signed the Political
Framework Agreement on Cooperation in the
Field of Cyber Defense with NATO. Considering
the fact that hybrid activity gradually became a
constant challenge for European security, it is
important that in the same year, Finland created
the Helsinki European Center of Excellence for
Countering Hybrid Threats. Supported by NATO
and the EU, this center is a real incentive for
cooperation between these organizations and is
open to the member countries of the Alliance.
Official Stockholm continued to pursue a very
pragmatic security policy, moving as close as
possible to NATO without talking about
membership. In 2020, exercises took place
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between the special forces of the Swedish army
and the American unit.
Compared to other Nordic countries, Norway's
historical experience was significantly different.
During the Second World War, Norway took a
neutral position, which in no way protected the
state and did not become an obstacle to the
German occupation of the country. In view of this,
nowadays, the country resolutely rejects the
policy of neutrality and considers the North
Atlantic Alliance the most important aspect of its
security policy.
Thanks to the different positions of all the
Nordic countries, until the 1990s the so-called
Scandinavian balance was consciously or
unconsciously maintained. Important for
establishing this equilibrium was the warning of
Norway and Denmark that, despite their
membership in NATO, it was not allowed to
deploy foreign military forces of the Alliance
partners on their territories in peacetime, let
alone nuclear weapons. It is also worth noting
that the armed forces of Sweden, Norway,
Denmark, and Finland made a significant
contribution to the UN peacekeeping missions,
meeting quite often outside the European
continent.

The Background of Nordic Countries' Engagement with the EU: The

Defense Dimension

All Nordic countries except Norway and Iceland are members of the European Union. In 1973 Denmark was
the first of these countries to join the EU. After the change in the official description of the defense policy,
Sweden (1991) and Finland (1992) applied for membership in the association. They both joined the union
together as a result of the 1995 northern enlargement of the EU. However, each of these three countries
has some features or exceptions that set them apart from most other EU members.

Talking about the security sphere

Denmark was standing out among its
Nordic colleagues as during the 30 years
from 1992 to 2022 the state ignored the
military dimension of integration by not
participating in one of the three pillars of
the EU – the Common Foreign and
Security Policy.

It was caused because of the rejection of

the Maastricht Treaty by a very small
majority of the population (50.7%), in the
1992 referendum. Therefore in 1993, this
country received various EU opt-outs
from the EU cooperation that were
enshrined in the Edinburgh Treaty. This
A map showing membership of countries in the EU and NATO. Purple:
both, blue: EU only, orange: NATO only. agreement announced that Denmark will
not participate in the development and
implementation of EU decisions and actions that have a defense purpose. However, at the same time, it
was emphasized that Denmark will not prevent the development of closer cooperation between other
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member states in this area. Taking this into account, a rather paradoxical situation persisted because
Denmark was actually the only one of the Northern European countries that was both a member of the
EU and NATO, the only doubly integrated one, and it was the least involved in the EU of all the Nordic
countries.

On the contrary, statements made in 2009 by Sweden were very unusual for this state. The Swedish White
Paper adopted that year emphasized the government's support for the so-called Declaration of
Solidarity presented by the Defense Committee. According to this declaration, it was announced that
Sweden would not remain passive if another EU member state or a Scandinavian country (i.e., Norway or
Iceland) were to suffer an attack. It was emphasized that Sweden would expect the same action from these
countries if this country was in a similar situation. In fact, this declaration was very consistent with the
Lisbon Treaty of the EU. According to Article 42.7, if a member state is a victim of armed aggression on its
territory, other member states undertake to provide it with assistance by all means.

The feature of Sweden's policy was that the governments that came to power emphasized, to varying
degrees, either the EU or the UN as a predominant subject of the general security order. For example,
from 2006 to 2014, during the rule of the center-right government, the country sought a leading role in
the EU's Eastern Partnership and, in general, to increase its role in the EU.

The new left-wing government in 2014 significantly reduced the importance of the EU, and the balance
tilted in favor of the UN. During 2017–2018, Sweden received a seat on the UN Security Council, which it
had longed for. Finally, the new right-wing government of 2022, paying more attention to the role of a core
member of the EU, signaled a turn in foreign policy.

Norway and Iceland are members of the European Economic Area. They cooperate with the EU in various
spheres, in particular in security. Norway signed an agreement with The European Defense Agency in 2006,
thus becoming the first country with which, such an agreement was signed. Nevertheless, for Norway,
NATO has always remained the best guarantor of security, and the emphasis was placed on the USA and
Great Britain.

The different approaches of these countries to the EU can be explained as arising either mainly from
security or economic factors. For example, while the main reasons for Finland's accession to the EU were
primarily related to security, Sweden followed its economic interests, as it had a positive experience of
neutrality and non-alignment. From this point of view, the situation in Norway was quite special. The main
arguments against the full integration of this country into the EU were economic factors. At the same time,
the active involvement of the country in the CSDP was caused by security considerations.

Transformation of Nordic Countries' Security Policy in the Face of the

War in Ukraine

The Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine on
February 24, 2022, which caused the outbreak of
the largest war on the European continent since
the Second World War, has finally changed, is
changing, and will continue to change the
security policy of the vast majority of European
countries.
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One of the most striking examples is the
countries of Northern Europe, some decisions of
which have truly become historic. Dubbed in
Germany as “Zeitenwende”, this time is actually
a great fit for the Nordic countries.
During the Nordic Council of Ministers held in the
Norwegian capital on August 15, 2022, five
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member countries agreed on a rather ambitious of achieving synergy in the coordination of

decision: to make the Nordic region the most
sustainable and integrated region in the world by
2030. The Nordic countries announced that they
share the goal of maintaining stability and
strengthening security in the region. To achieve
this, the importance of enhancing multilateral
cooperation in all possible formats was
emphasized: at the regional level (primarily within
the framework of NORDEFCO), and at the
European and Euro-Atlantic levels (NATO and the
EU).
In the past, Nordic cooperation was often
criticized for not having the necessary means to
deal with growing geopolitical tensions in the
region. After all, it was believed that this
cooperation has neither the necessary tools nor
sufficient institutional structures nor the political
will to develop a common Northern security and
defense policy. However, recently, we have been
observing significant changes on this path. In
particular, in August 2022, the prime ministers of
the Nordic countries emphasized the importance
national defense plans and NATO plans. In
November, the defense ministers of Finland,
Sweden, and Norway signed a joint statement on
deepening the defense cooperation of the
Nordic countries.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia's
actions constantly contribute to increasing
tension in the Northern region. For example, in
the fall of 2022, satellite images were published
indicating that Russia had deployed strategic
bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons
near the border with Norway. In May 2023, Russia
transferred the maximum number (from February
24, 2022) of such bombers to the border with
Norway and Finland. In addition, in February 2023,
according to Norwegian intelligence, for the first
time in 30 years, Russia introduced ships with
nuclear weapons into the Baltic Sea. At the same
time, it is necessary for both Norway and
Denmark to continue negotiations with Russia
regarding territorial claims at the North Pole and
cooperation in the Barents Sea.

Soldiers from Gotland’s regiment patrol

Visby harbour. The deployment came amid
rising jitters in Nordic and Baltic countries
about Russia’s intentions on its border with
Ukraine © via REUTERS

Drastic and important changes have happened in Denmark's position regarding the EU CSDP. In 2022, the
country's ruling parties adopted the "National Compromise on Denmark's Security Policy", which
emphasized that changes in Denmark's existing security and defense architecture were necessary in view
of the strengthening geopolitical context. During the referendum on July 1, 2022, 66.9% of the population
voted to join The Common Security and Defense Policy. After the referendum, the Danish parliament in
mid-June adopted a law that opened the way for Denmark's participation in the CSDP. It gave the country
a chance to participate in the EU's military missions and operations. The opportunity to join the Permanent
Structured Cooperation (PESCO) and the European Defense Agency has paramount importance and was
approved during the vote on March 23, 2023. Thus, Denmark will be able to participate in joint EU military

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operations and, importantly, cooperate on the development and acquisition of military potential within
the framework of the association.

There is another factor affecting the country's attitude to security, which was indirectly shaped by Russia's
actions. Denmark's political decisions regarding security were also driven by fear of being left behind in
ambitious actions relating to the defense of its neighbors, especially Germany. Therefore, given the general
awakening of Europe, in case of neglecting the security policy, Denmark just may not get a very positive
reputation as a NATO member state. Therefore, the country decided to reach 2% by 2033. On the one
hand, it seems like insufficient steps, as the deadline is extremely distant. However, at the same time, even
this is a great achievement for Denmark because traditionally the strategy of this country has always been
aimed at preserving US security guarantees while at the same time not spending significant funds on
defense (Denmark has never reached the requirement of 2%).

NATO Membership of Finland and Sweden: Implications for the Security

Architecture

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine radically changed the foreign policy approaches of Sweden and
Finland. Both countries drastically reassessed their security policies and, as a result, realized that the most
realistic and reliable way to ensure security would be a quick accession to NATO.

If earlier Russia was the main reason to stay out of the North Atlantic Alliance, then in 2022 Russia became
the main reason for countries’ desire to join it. Neutrality, instead of ensuring security, makes the
country vulnerable to Russian aggression. This thesis was confirmed, in particular, by the results of
surveys among the Swedish population. In 2022 Swedish citizens consider Russia to be the most important
security challenge among the nine proposed threats (21% of respondents expressed this opinion). This
indicator is higher than the average value of those who perceive Russia as the greatest threat among all
other countries.

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In May 2022, both countries jointly submitted official letters of application for membership in the Alliance.
The cancellation of the stage of providing the MAP was an unprecedented decision, which became
possible due to the proximity of the countries to the Alliance, in particular, membership in the EU, as well
as strong democratic institutions, transparency of the authorities, and, of course, the interoperability of
the armed forces and their compliance with NATO standards. After the NATO summit in Madrid, on July 4,
2022, Sweden and Finland completed their accession negotiations. On July 5, all member states signed the
Protocols on their accession to NATO. After the Protocol was ratified by all 30 members of the Alliance on
April 4, 2023, Finland became the 31st full member of NATO.

The Finnish foreign minister, Pekka Haavisto, left, hands over Finland’s accession document to the
US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, right, as Jens Stoltenberg looks on. Photograph: Johanna
Geron/AP

The path to NATO Membership was more difficult for Sweden though due to the veto of Hungary and
Turkey. Only during the NATO summit in Vilnius did Turkish President Erdoğan announce that he agreed
to unblock Sweden's accession to NATO.

It is worth noting that, NATO's protection is geographically much wider than it might seem at first glance;
for example, Sweden owns territories that are very important in strategic terms. Especially crucial is the
island of Gotland, regarding which there is even a common expression that whoever controls this island
controls the Baltic Sea. This makes it very important for the defense of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Thus,
after the accession of Sweden, the North Atlantic Alliance will fully cover the entire region of Northern
Europe. Undoubtedly, after the accession of the entire Northern region to NATO, the alliance will become
much stronger. Full entry would bring the alliance a strategic advantage on a global scale.

It is imperative to acknowledge the prominence of Gothenburg, located along Sweden's western coastline.
Addressing maritime security, it not only stands as a vital port for Sweden but also assumes significance
for Norway and Finland. Rooted in historical tradition, Norway's pivotal role within NATO lends substantial
weight to its influence in the North. The overarching national commitment entails a sustained presence in
the Far North. The forthcoming inclusion of Finland and Sweden into the Alliance augments this endeavor
significantly.

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The recent military engagements between Finland, Sweden, and NATO signal an unprecedented alignment
with the Alliance's strategies and standards. This synergy is developing more rapidly than what is typical
for potential members. A notable feature is the significant contribution these countries have made to
regional security without yet formally joining the Alliance. Since April 2022, NATO forces have been
stationed in Finland almost continuously, conducting collective defense exercises that ensure a greater
presence of the Alliance in the region. In November 2022, Finland, Sweden, and Norway took a step further
by updating their tripartite statement of intent to strengthen operational planning, particularly in their
northern territories. This alignment reached a new peak in March 2023 when Denmark, Finland, Norway,
and Sweden announced a major agreement to use approximately 250 of their fighters as joint operational
units. Such collaborations reflect a deepening relationship and a commitment to the region's security that
transcends formal membership.

Nordic Nations' Stance on the War in Ukraine: Military Aid, Financial

Support, and Diplomatic Engagement

Like the entire collective West, the countries of contributor in this area is Denmark, whose aid for
Northern Europe immediately strongly 2022–2023 has only gradually increased.
condemned Russia's unjustified war against
Ukraine. They remain unwavering in their
commitment to the independence, sovereignty,
and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its
internationally recognized borders. All Nordic
countries provide Ukraine with versatile political,
military, financial, and humanitarian assistance.
They also supported tough sanctions against
Russia, in particular against the country's energy
sector. According to Kiel University data for the
period from February 2022 to May 2023, in terms
of some indicators of the total volume of bilateral
aid to Ukraine, calculated both in billions of euros
and as a percentage of GDP, the countries of
Northern Europe are in the top ten aid providers For instance, in May 2023, the country sent the
of Ukraine. largest package of military aid in the amount of
250 million dollars, which was intended to help
It is characteristic that the main aid of these the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces.
countries falls on military support. The largest Speaking about the long-term perspective, it is
important that the country has increased the
fund of military aid to Ukraine calculated for the
period 2023–2028 to 3.2 billion dollars. Also,
Denmark has created a fund to support Ukraine
in the amount of one billion euros that aims
mainly at the reconstruction of Ukraine. The
support of Sweden and Finland, which are
militarily the most powerful of all the Nordic
countries, is also crucial. They transfer a wide
range of weapons to Ukraine: anti-tank weapons,
demining equipment, light anti-tank systems,
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infantry fighting vehicles, tanks and artillery, air
defense equipment, etc.
Norway is one of the major contributors to
NATO's Comprehensive Assistance Package for
Ukraine. The country also plays an important role
thanks to the creation of the Nansen Support
Program for Ukraine. As part of this multi-year
support program for Ukraine, Norway will
provide more than 75 billion kroner over the five
years 2023–2027. It is worth noting that Norway
was one of the first countries to announce a
similar support program for Ukraine. Above all,
this includes military support, humanitarian aid,
funding to support civilian infrastructure and
essential public functions. According to the
statement of Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas
Gahr Støre, it is assumed that in 2023, half of the
aid will be in the form of military support. In
addition, during the Vilnius summit, the country's
prime minister announced an increase in the
military aid fund this year by 2.5 billion kroner, i.e.,
in 2023, military support will amount to 10 billion
kroner.
and humanitarian aid in the war with Russia.
Assistance in the restoration and modernization
of Ukraine's energy sector is also important. This
country provided Kyiv with the equipment
needed to restore the damaged power system
for 1.5 billion euros. In terms of financial aid as a
percentage of GDP, Iceland ranks 11th. Iceland's
presidency of the Council of Europe (November
2022–May 2023) focused on strengthening the
main principles of the Council—human rights,
democracy, and the rule of law—which were
seriously threatened by the Russian war against
Ukraine. After the end of this presidency, on May
16–17, 2023, a summit of heads of state and
government of the Council of Europe was held in
Reykjavik, during which the international register
of damages caused to Ukraine during the war was
presented.

Iceland, being a small country with a population

of approximately 357,000 people that does not
have significant defense capabilities, also
provides Ukraine with primarily political, financial,

Conclusion

In the article, the evolution of the Nordic countries' role within Europe's security framework was
considered. Summing up, the Russian invasion of Ukraine became a powerful impulse for the countries of
Northern Europe to significantly deepen cooperation in the field of security policy; this applied both at the
regional level and within the Euro-Atlantic organization NATO.

Sweden and Finland have ultimately carved out their unique positions within the extensive security
architecture of Europe. This observation is somewhat applicable to Denmark as well, especially in light of
the European Union's growing desire to stake a more prominent claim in the domains of security and
military prowess.

With regard to NATO, the cases of Finland and Sweden have underscored the supreme significance of
alliance membership in security and defense for nations with moderate influence. Simultaneously, it raises
substantial questions regarding the efficacy of maintaining a neutral stance. Consequently, an
unprecedented unity has emerged among all five Nordic nations, overcoming the previously pronounced
divergence that had characterized their relationships.
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Disclaimer: The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in the papers published on this site belong solely to the
authors, and not necessarily to the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, its committees, or its affiliated organizations. The
papers are intended to stimulate dialogue and discussion and do not represent official policy positions of the
Transatlantic Dialogue Center or any other organizations the authors may be associated with.

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