2022 MATHEMATICAL METHODS UNIT 4

SAC 3 Modelling/Problem-solving Task: TECHNOLOGY ACTIVE Part 2 of 2

Probability
Reading time: 4 minutes
Writing time: 78 minutes

QUESTION AND ANSWER BOOKLET

Structure of Booklet
Number of Questions Number of questions to be
answered

4 4

• Students are permitted to bring into the test room: pens, pencils, highlighters, erasers,
sharpeners, rulers, a protractor, set-squares, aids for curve sketching, one bound reference, one
approved technology (calculator or software) and, if desired, one scientific calculator.
Calculator memory DOES NOT need to be cleared. For approved computer-based CAS, full
functionality may be used.
• Students are NOT permitted to bring into the examination room: blank sheets of paper and/or
correction fluid/tape.

Instructions
• Write your name and teacher’s name on the spaces provided above.
• Answer all questions in the spaces provided.
• In all questions where a numerical answer is required, an exact value must be given unless
otherwise specified.
• If a table/box is displayed, only an answer is needed. Otherwise working out is required
• All written responses must be in English.

Students are NOT permitted to bring mobile phones and/or any other unauthorised electronic devices into
the test room.
 Mathematical Methods formulas

Probability
 Instructions
Answer all questions in the spaces provided.
In all questions where a numerical answer is required an exact value must be given unless otherwise specified.
If a table/box is displayed, only an answer is needed. Otherwise working out is required.

Question 1 (12 marks)

Since the pre-industrial period, human activities

are estimated to have increased Earth’s global
average temperature by about 1 degree Celsius
(1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), a number that is
currently increasing by more than 0.2 degrees
Celsius (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade.
The current warming trend is explicitly the result of human activity since the 1950s and is proceeding at a
record rate over millennia.
A building company has been affected financially due to construction staff who cannot work because of
the extreme hot weather on some of the days during the summer months.
The table below shows the number of working days a building company lost, X, due to extreme hot
weather and it’s probability.
x 3 4 5 6 7 8
Pr(X = x) 6𝑘𝑘 − 1 1 − 2𝑘𝑘 2 6𝑘𝑘 2 + 𝑘𝑘 𝑘𝑘 2 + 1 1 − 13𝑘𝑘 2 3𝑘𝑘 + 1
4 2 8 4 16

a. i. Write, but do not attempt to solve, an equation to find the value of k. (1 mark)

1
If 𝑘𝑘 = 5,

ii. Find Pr(4 ≤ 𝑥𝑥 < 7) (1 mark)

iii. Find E(X), the expected value of the random variable X. (2 marks)
iv. Find the variance of X, Var(X) . (1 mark)

v. Hence, find the standard deviation of X, SD(X). (1 mark)

vi. Find the Pr(𝜇𝜇 − 𝜎𝜎 ≤ 𝑋𝑋 ≤ 𝜇𝜇 + 𝜎𝜎). (1 mark)

If C = 100000 X, where $ C represents the cost involved in every working day lost due to extreme hot
weather.
b. i. Find the expected cost, E(C). (1 mark)

Due to the increasing trend of the Earth’s global average temperature, it’s predicted that in one-decade
time the probability of working days a building company lost, 𝑋𝑋𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 , due to extreme hot weather will
change according to the following:
Pr (X = 3) = Pr(X = 4) = Pr(X = 5) = a
Pr (X = 6) = Pr(X = 7) = Pr(X = 8) = b
and 3 Pr(X < 5) = Pr(X > 6) where a and b are positive constants.
x 3 4 5 6 7 8
Pr(𝑋𝑋𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 = x) a a a b b b

ii. Find a and b (2 marks)

 iii. find the new expected value of the random variable X, 𝐸𝐸(𝑋𝑋𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 ). (1 mark)

Also, as a result of the global average temperature rise, the accumulated cost of living in one-decade time
is expected to rise by 45% (that is the cost involved in every working day lost).
iv. Find the new expected cost, 𝐸𝐸(𝐶𝐶𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 ) for the new expected number, 𝑋𝑋𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 , of the days lost. (1 mark)

Question 2 (22 marks)

Corroboree Frogs are Australia’s most iconic amphibian species
and amongst the most visually spectacular frogs in the world.
They can be readily distinguished by the bold yellow and black
longitudinal stripes on its top, sides and legs.
Its belly is marbled black, white and yellow. Both the males
and females have the same colouration but females are slightly
larger than males.
The weight, X, g, for a grown Corroboree Frog is normally distributed with mean, 𝜇𝜇 = 2.75 𝑔𝑔 , and
standard deviation, 𝜎𝜎 = 0.08 𝑔𝑔.

a. i. Find the probability that a Corroboree Frog weigh between 2.55 g and 2.65 g, correct to four
decimal places. (1 mark)

ii. Find the probability that a Corroboree Frog weigh more than 2.55 g given it weighs less than 2.65 g,
correct to four decimal places. (2 mark)
One of the threats to the Corroboree Frog is climate change, which is having an effect on the frog's alpine
home environment. Reduced precipitation and warmer temperatures are likely to eventually affect
breeding pools and vegetation around them.
As a result of climate change the mean weight Corroboree Frog, 𝜇𝜇, was reduced while the deviation from
the mean was increased. The new mean, 𝜇𝜇 = 2.63 g and the new standard deviation, 𝜎𝜎 = 0.11 g.

b. i. Find the weight that is exceeded by 90% of the Corroboree Frog, correct to four decimal places.
(1 mark)

The heaviest 15% of Corroboree Frog are considered large.

ii. Find the minimum weight, in grams, to be considered large, correct to four decimal places. (1 mark)

It is known 21% of female Corroboree Frogs are considered large, and females make up 60% of the
population
iii. Find the probability as a percentage that a randomly selected Corroboree Frog is male and
considered large. (2 marks)
The majority of the Corroboree Frogs don’t reach reproductive age until four years from metamorphosis,
although a small proportion of individuals reach sexual maturity in three years. Adult males move into
breeding areas in early to late summer and make small chambers or nests in moss or other soft vegetation
and soil at the edges of the breeding pools. Males have a special courtship call to attract the females to
their nest to mate and lay their eggs. Females lay between 16 to 38 eggs per clutch.
If the number of eggs laid per female, Y, is normally distributed with a mean, 𝜇𝜇, of 27 and a standard
deviation, 𝜎𝜎, of 3.6.
If Pr(𝑎𝑎 < 𝑌𝑌 < 𝑏𝑏) = 0.6 and the specified interval is symmetrical about the mean.

c. i. Locate on the diagram provided a possible position

for each of a and b with correct percentages for each
area under the curve. (1 mark)

ii. Find Pr(𝑌𝑌 > 𝑎𝑎|𝑌𝑌 < 𝑏𝑏). (1 mark)

iii. Find the minimum number of eggs laid by a female which exceeded b, where 𝑏𝑏 𝜖𝜖 𝑍𝑍 + . (1 mark)

If a Corroboree Frog female can lay eggs with 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃(𝑌𝑌 > 𝑏𝑏) it is considered fully mature
It was observed that 4% of female Corroboree frogs are large and fully mature.
Let L be the event that a randomly selected female Corroboree frog is large and let M be the event that a
randomly selected female Corroboree frog is fully mature.
iv. Are the events L and M independent? Justify your answer. (1 mark)

Droughts result in egg and tadpole deaths, and as the frequency of droughts increases with climate
change, the capacity for the Corroboree Frog to recovery greatly reduces. Under such conditions
approximately 99.7% of the females lay between 13 to 29 eggs per clutch.
d. i. Show that 𝜇𝜇 = 21 and 𝜎𝜎 = 2.7. (2 marks)

1 𝑥𝑥−27 2 1 𝑥𝑥−21 2
1 − � � 1 − � �
If 𝑓𝑓1 (𝑥𝑥) = 𝑒𝑒 2 3.6 and 𝑓𝑓2 (𝑥𝑥) = 𝑒𝑒 2 2.7
3.6 √2𝜋𝜋 2.7 √2𝜋𝜋

ii. state clearly the sequence of transformations from 𝑓𝑓1 (𝑥𝑥) to 𝑓𝑓2 (𝑥𝑥). (3 marks)
To overcome the threat of climate change and other threats, Captive breeding programs are currently
being implemented. They don’t only boost populations, but also improve their chances of survival and
have greater genetic diversity.
In a certain monitored site, a grown female Corroboree Frog has gestated 32 eggs in its clutch. The
probability that an egg survives in this site is 0.65.
Let F, be the number of eggs carried by the grown female that successfully survive in the clutch, that is
𝐹𝐹 ~ 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵(32, 0.65).
e. i. Find the mean value, 𝜇𝜇 and the standard deviation, 𝜎𝜎, correct to one decimal place. (2 marks)

ii. Hence find 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃(𝜇𝜇 − 2𝜎𝜎 < 𝐹𝐹 < 𝜇𝜇 + 2𝜎𝜎), correct to four decimal places. (1 mark)

iii. Find Pr(F ≥ 20|μ − 2σ < F < μ + 2σ), correct to four decimal places. (2 marks)
Another grown female Corroboree Frog in the monitored site begins gestating eggs.
iv. What is the smallest number of eggs that this female Corroboree Frog can gestate such that the
probability of having more than 30 surviving eggs in its clutch is more than 0.75? (1 mark)

Question 3 (6 marks)
Climate models are mathematical representations of the climate
system, expressed as computer codes and run on powerful computers.
Climate model fundamentals are based on established physical laws,
such as conservation of mass, energy and momentum, along with
a wealth of observations.
Weather forecasting models may find it difficult to cope with this kind of rapid warming. In a local
region, weather forecasting suggests that the probability of rain occurring on a particular day depends
strongly on whether it has rained the day before.
If it rains one day, the probability of rain on the next day is p. If it doesn’t rain one day then the
5
probability of it not raining the next day is 4 𝑝𝑝.
Suppose it rains in the first day of the week.

a. i. What is the probability that it will rain on the next two days. (1 mark)

ii. What is the probability that it will rain on exactly one of the next two days. (1 marks)

iii. Find p, if the probability that it will rain on exactly one of the next two days is 0.34. (1 mark)
Because of climate change, weather forecasting models may find it difficult to cope with the challenges
and complexities of predictions. Therefore, assume that the occurrence of rain on any day is independent
of whether or not rain falls on any other day. Assume the probability of raining on any day is q.
If the sum of the probability of raining on both of the next two days or not raining on both days is three
times as much as the sum of raining on one of the next two days.
b. i. Write an equation in terms of q representing this information. (2 marks)

ii. Find the value/s of q, correct to four decimal places. (1 mark)

Question 4 (5 marks)
One of the most dangerous effects of climate change is its impact on extreme events. The extra energy
that’s present on a warmer world doesn’t distribute itself uniformly but can come out in large bursts,
manifesting itself as heat waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, and tornadoes.
The graphs below show the temperature anomaly (difference from the average value)

20 – a 20 + a

The temperature, X, for the previous climate is normally distributed such that 𝑋𝑋 ~ 𝑁𝑁(20, 22 ).
If the Pr(20 − 𝑎𝑎 ≤ 𝑋𝑋 ≤ 20 + 𝑎𝑎) = 0.96,
a. i. Find the value of a, correct to four decimal places. (1 mark)
 ii. Hence state the minimum temperature for which it is considered more hot and its probability as
a percentage. (1 mark)

As climate continues to change, temperatures increase (shifting the bell curve to the right) and become
more variable (flattening the bell curve).

20 – a 20 + a
If the temperature, Y, for the new climate is normally distributed and 𝑌𝑌 ~ 𝑁𝑁(21.5, 𝜎𝜎 2 ).
If the Pr(𝑌𝑌 ≤ 20 − 𝑎𝑎) = 0.005,
b. i. Find the standard deviation, 𝜎𝜎, for the new climate, correct to four decimal places. (1 mark)

ii. Find the new probability for which it is considered more hot temperature as a percentage,
correct to two decimal places. (1 mark)

To reverse climate change, most of the world are trying to reduce greenhouse emissions by switching to
clean energy sources like solar, wind, water, and nuclear energy.
Assume that by 2030 the target for which it is considered more hot temperature, 20 + 𝑎𝑎, is 5%.
If the temperature, R, for the reversed climate is normally distributed and 𝑅𝑅 ~ 𝑁𝑁(𝜇𝜇, 22 ).

c. Find the mean, 𝜇𝜇, for the reversed climate, correct to one decimal place. (1 mark)

END OF PART 2