中国真的能“武统”台湾吗？ - 纽约时报中⽂⽹ 2022/8/13 下午2:08

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中国真的 “武统”台 吗
Could China invade Taiwan?
储百
2022年8⽉3⽇

https://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20220803/china-invade-taiwan/dual/ 第1⾴（共9⾴）
中国真的能“武统”台湾吗？ - 纽约时报中⽂⽹ 2022/8/13 下午2:08

2019年 “辽宁号” ⺟上的中国军⼈ POOL PHOTO BY MARK SCHIEFELBEIN

After China announced military 在中国宣布于台 六个海域举⾏军

exercises in six sea zones close to 事演练后 台 国防 ⽰ 京想要
Taiwan, the island’s defense ministry 传 的信息已经 明 “ 们要寻
said it had no doubt what message 武⼒⽽ 和平⼿段 两岸问题 ”
Beijing wanted to send: “that they seek
a cross-strait resolution by force instead
of peaceful means.”

But could China take Taiwan by force if 但 算意 如 中国真的 武⼒夺

it wanted to? 台 吗

https://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20220803/china-invade-taiwan/dual/ 第2⾴（共9⾴）
中国真的能“武统”台湾吗？ - 纽约时报中⽂⽹ 2022/8/13 下午2:08

Under China’s leader, Xi Jinping, the 在中国领导⼈习 平治下 ⼈⺠ 军

People’s Liberation Army has upgraded 已 武统台 的⾏动升级⾄越来越可
to the point where a campaign to seize 的 步 ⽽ 即便是专⻔监 中国军
Taiwan seems increasingly plausible. ⽅动态的专 和官员 对中国军队
Yet even experts and officials who 对 台 的准备 度 习 平进
monitor China’s military for a living ⾏ 场 赌—— 别是当俄罗斯在乌克兰
disagree over how ready those forces 陷 战之后——的意 同意⻅
are to invade Taiwan and how inclined
Mr. Xi would be to take the momentous
gamble, especially after Russia’s
troubled war in Ukraine.

“When people talk about whether or not “当⼈们讨论中国 么 的时

China can or cannot do it, they’re 际上说的是另⼀码事 即中国 要为
actually talking about something 付出的⾏动代价 包括 舰损失和⼈员
different, the level of operational cost — 伤 ”斯坦福⼤学弗⾥ 斯波利国际研
the loss of ships, casualties — that 所研 员 安娜·斯凯拉·⻢斯 罗
China would have to pay to do it,” said ⽰ 认为 国 策制定者可 估了
Oriana Skylar Mastro, a fellow at 中国动武的意
Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli
Institute for International Studies who
has argued that American policymakers
may underestimate China’s readiness to
use force.

https://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20220803/china-invade-taiwan/dual/ 第3⾴（共9⾴）
中国真的能“武统”台湾吗？ - 纽约时报中⽂⽹ 2022/8/13 下午2:08

“They could do it,” she added. “It’s just “ 们可 么 ” 补 “只是考

that given Taiwan’s defenses and given 虑到台 的防卫 ⼒ 再加上 国可
if the United States is able to come to 出⼿援助台 场⾎战会 到何种
Taiwan’s aid, how much of a blood 度 ”
battle is this going to be?”

Legislation passed by Congress in 1979 国会在1979年 的 法创 了 件

paves the way for American forces to 让 军 在中国试图 台 时进⾏介
step in if China tried to invade Taiwan 但并未强制总统必须采 ⾏动
but does not oblige a president to take
that step.

https://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20220803/china-invade-taiwan/dual/ 第4⾴（共9⾴）
中国真的能“武统”台湾吗？ - 纽约时报中⽂⽹ 2022/8/13 下午2:08

One key question is how close the ⼀个关键问题是 对于从海上或 中向

People’s Liberation Army is to 台 万计军队 在台 岛上建
mastering the capabilities needed to 据点 并向外推进占领港⼝ 铁路和
dispatch tens of thousands of troops to 讯 纽 要 可 满是 抗者
Taiwan, by sea or air; establish a 的城市 军在 ⼒上 多少
foothold on the island; and push
outward to seize vital sites like ports,
railways and communication hubs, as
well as cities crowded with potential
insurgents.

The Pentagon’s 2021 annual report on 五⾓⼤ 关于中 ⼈⺠共和国的2021年

the People’s Republic of China — widely 年度报告被⼴泛 读为⼀ 权威评估
read as an authoritative assessment — 报告 出 中国海军 舰 量已成为
noted that it has built up the world’s 第⼀ 但称“若尝试 台 可 会给
biggest navy in number of vessels but 中国的武装 队 成压⼒ 并引来国际
said that “an attempt to invade Taiwan ⼲预”
would likely strain PRC’s armed forces
and invite international intervention.”

Even if Chinese forces made it to shore 五⾓⼤ 的报告称 哪怕中国军队成功

on Taiwan, the difficulties of urban 登陆台 城市战的难度“会让两栖
warfare, “make an amphibious invasion 台 成为习 平和中国共产党的重⼤
of Taiwan a significant political and 治和军事⻛险”
military risk for Xi Jinping and the
Chinese Communist Party,” the
Pentagon report said.

https://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20220803/china-invade-taiwan/dual/ 第5⾴（共9⾴）
中国真的能“武统”台湾吗？ - 纽约时报中⽂⽹ 2022/8/13 下午2:08

Several studies recently issued by the 国海军战争学院 发布的⼏ 研

U.S. Naval War College also indicated 明 中国可 仍 乏⾜ 台
that China probably still falls short of 的⼀ 设备和技 役中校⼘思⾼
some equipment and skills needed to (Dennis J. Blasko)在其中⼀ 研 中
make a Taiwan invasion credible. 中国的两栖 队“ 乏执⾏⼤规
China’s amphibious force “lacks the 台 务的 ⼒”
capacity to execute a large-scale assault
on Taiwan,” Dennis J. Blasko, a retired
lieutenant colonel, wrote in one of the
studies.

Few doubt that China’s military has 毫⽆ 问 中国军队⼀直在提升作战技

been improving its war-fighting skills. 但台 在提升防卫 ⼒
But Taiwan is also building up defenses.

https://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20220803/china-invade-taiwan/dual/ 第6⾴（共9⾴）
中国真的能“武统”台湾吗？ - 纽约时报中⽂⽹ 2022/8/13 下午2:08

On Monday, the 95th anniversary of the ⼀ 在 军建军95 年之际 官

founding of the People’s Liberation 《 军报》重申了要在2027年 现军
Army, the official Liberation Army 队现代 的关键 节 去年 准备 休
Daily stressed Mr. Xi’s goal of achieving 的 国 太司 总司 尔·戴维 上
key parts of military modernization by 对⼀个参议院 员会 ⽰ 中国可
2027. Last year, Adm. Phil Davidson, 在 之 采 ⾏动夺 台 从⽽引发
then poised to retire as commander of 了辩论
United States Indo-Pacific Command,
sparked debate by telling a senate
committee that China could move to
seize Taiwan before then.

“There are different assessments,” said “各⽅评估 同 ”同时 是 国企业研

Ms. Mastro, who is also a senior fellow 院⾼级研 员的⻢斯 罗说 “但关键
at the American Enterprise Institute, 在于中国是 相信⾃⼰ 到 ⽽ 我
“but what matters is whether China 们是 相信 们 到 ”
thinks they can do it, not whether we
think they can do it.”

储百 (Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》⾸席中国记者 成⻓于 ⼤利亚 在 去30年中的⼤ 时间内

居住在中国 在2012年加 《纽约时报》之 是路 社的⼀名记者 欢 在Twitter上关注
@ChuBailiang
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