Solution Manual For College Mathematics For Business Economics Life Sciences and Social Sciences 14th by Barnett

Solution Manual for College Mathematics for
Business, Economics Life Sciences and Social

Sciences 14th by Barnett
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Solution Manual for College Mathematics for Business, Economics Life Sciences and Social Sci
8 PROBABILITY
EXERCISE 8-1
1 2 7
2. F is more likely;  4. E is more likely; 0.9 
3 7 8
5 11
6. E is more likely; 
7 6
area (Y ) 3 1
8. Let Y  yellow . Then P (Y )    .
total area 15 5
area ( R )  area ( B) 6  5 11
10. Let R  red and B  blue . P ( R or B)    .
total area 15 15
12. Let Y  yellow , R  red , and G  green . Then

area (Y )  area ( R )  area (G ) 3  6  1 10 2
P (Y or R or G )     .
total area 15 15 3
14. Let Z  purple . Since there are no purple sectors, P ( Z )  0 .
26 1
16. Let B  black card . Since each card (outcome) is equally likely and n( B)  26 , P ( B )   .
52 2
36 9
18. Let N  numbered card . Each card (outcome) is equally likely and n( N )  36 , so P ( N )   .
52 13
4 1
20. There are four aces, and each card is equally likely. If we let A  ace , then P ( A)   .
52 13
2 1
22. There are two red queens. If we let RQ  red queen , then P ( RQ )   since each outcome is
52 26
equally likely.
24. Let A  a six and B  a club . Then n( A  B )  n( A)  n( B)  n( A  B)  4  13  1  16 . Since each
n( A  B ) 16 4
outcome is equally likely, P ( A  B)    .
n( S ) 52 13
26. Let G  girl and B  boy . Then S  (G, G ), (G , B ), ( B, G ), ( B, B )
where (G, G ) means both children are girls, (G, B ) means the first child is a girl, the second is a boy, and
so on. The event E corresponding to having two girls is E  (G, G ) . Since the simple events (outcomes)
are equally likely,
n( E ) 1
P( E )   .
n( S ) 4
28. From Problem 27(C), P ( J )  0.26 , P (G )  0.14 , P ( P )  0.30 , P ( S )  0.30 . So,

P (a random customer will not choose brand S )  1  P ( S )  1  0.30  0.70
Copyright © 2019 Pearson Education, Inc.

8-1
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8-2 CHAPTER 8: PROBABILITY
30. Using probabilities given in problem 27(C),
P (a random customer will not choose brand J or brand P)  1 P ( J )  P ( P )  1  0.26  0.30  1  0.56  0.44.
32. S  (G, G, G ), (G, G, B ), (G , B, G ), (G , B, B ), ( B, G , G ), ( B, G , B ), ( B, B, G ), ( B, B, B )
E: 2 boys and 1 girl in any order so E  (G, B, B ), ( B, G, B), ( B, B, G )

The outcomes are equally likely and n( S )  8 , n( E )  3 , so
3
P( E )  .
8
34. The number of four-digit sequences with no digit repeated is 10 P4 . Since the possible opening
combinations are equally likely, the probability of a person guessing the right combination is:
1 1
= ≈ 0.000198
P
10 4 10  9 8 7
36. Let S = the set of five-card hands. Then n(S) = 52 C 5 .

Let A = "five hearts." Then n(A) = 13 C 5 .
Since individual hands are equally likely to occur:
13!
n( A) 13 C 5
P(A) = = = 5!8! ≈ 0.00050
n( S ) 52 C 5
52!
5!47!
38. S = set of five-card hands; n(S) = 52 C 5 .

B = "five non-face cards"; n(B) = 40 C 5
Since the individual hands are equally likely to occur:
40!
n( B ) 40 C 5
P(B) = = = 5!35! ≈ 0.25
n( S ) 52 C 5
52!
5!47!
40. Let A and B be the two candidates running neck-and-neck and C the third candidate who is receiving half
the support of either A or B according to the polls. An appropriate sample space would be S = {A, B, C}. A
reasonable and acceptable assignment of probabilities to the outcomes in S (based on the polls) would be
2 2 1
P(A) = , P(B) = , and P(C) = .
5 5 5
42. n(S) = 6 P6 = 6! = 720

Let A = all the people will get their own coats back.
n( A) 1
Then n(A) = 1 and P(A) = = ≈ 0.00139
n( S ) 720

EXERCISE 8-1 8-3
Use the sample space in Figure 2, Page 389 for Problems 44–56
n( B ) 5
44. Let B = "Sum is 8". Then n(B) = 5. Therefore, Thus, P(B) = = .
n( S ) 36
46. Let C = "Sum is greater than 8" ={(3, 6), (4, 5), (5, 4), (6, 3), (4, 6), (5, 5), (6, 4), (5, 6), (6, 5), (6, 6)}
10 5
Then n(C) = 10 and P(C) =  .
36 18
48. Let D = "Sum is not 2, 4, or 6", and let E = "Sum is 2, 4, or 6".

Then P(D) = 1 – P(E).
Observe that E = {(1, 1), (1, 3), (2, 2), (3, 1), (1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)}, and hence
n( E ) 9 1 1 3
P(E) = = = Therefore, P(D) = 1 – = .
n( S ) 36 4 4 4
50. Let F = "Sum is 13". F is empty since the maximum value of the sum is 12. Thus, P(F) = 0.
52. Let G = "Sum is divisible by 4". Then the possible values for the sum will be 4, 8, 12.
Thus, G = {(1, 3), (2, 2), (3, 1), (2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2), (6, 6)}, and hence
n(G ) 9 1
P(G) = = = .
n( S ) 36 4
54. Let H = "Sum is 2, 3, or 12." Then
1 2 1 4 1
P(H) = P(Sum 2) + P(Sum 3) + P(Sum 12) = + + = = .
36 36 36 36 9
56. Let I = "Sum is divisible by 2 and 3." Then it must be divisible by 2 × 3 = 6. The possible values
are: 6 and 12.

5 1 6 1
P(I) = P(Sum 6) + P(Sum 12) = + = = .
36 36 36 6
For Problems 58–62 , the sample space S is given by: S = {(H, H, H), (H, H, T), (H, T, H), (H, T, T)}
The outcomes are equally likely and n(S) = 4.
2 1
58. Let A = "2 heads". Then n(A) = 2 and P(A) = = .
4 2
60. Let B = "0 heads". Then n(B) = 0 and P(B) = 0.
1
62. Let C = "more than 1 tail". Then n(C) = 1 and P(C) = .
4
64. Yes, the sample space S = {H, T}. Assuming the coin is fair, we can make the equally likely assumption;
1
P(H) = P(T) = .
2

66. S = {0, 1, 2}. For this experiment there are four outcomes, HH, HT, TH, TT, which correspond to 2, 1, 1, 0
(number of heads) respectively. As you can see, 1 corresponds to two outcomes whereas 0 and 2 each
correspond to one outcome. So, we do not make the equally likely assumption. For example, if the coins
1 2 1
are fair, then P(0) = P(2) = , but P(1) = = .
4 4 2
3 2
68. S = {R, O, Y} and the seven sectors are of equal areas. Thus, P(R) = , P(O) = P(Y) = and we cannot
7 7
make the equally likely assumption.
70. (A) Yes, but the probability of that happening is very small.
(B) Yes, because we would expect, on the average, 1 double six in 36 rolls. The empirical probability we
11
assign based on the given experiment is .
36
For Problems 72–76 , the sample space S is given by:

(1,1), (1, 2), (1,3), (1, 4) 
(2,1), (2, 2), (2,3), (2, 4) 
 
S=  
 (3,1), (3, 2), (3,3), (3, 4) 
(4,1), (4, 2), (4,3), (4, 4) 
The outcomes are equally likely and n(S) = 9.
2 1
72. Let A = "Sum is 3". Then n(A) = 2 and P(A) =  .
16 8
4 1
74. Let B = "Sum is 5". Then n(B) = 4 and P(B) =  .
16 4
2 1
76. Let C = "Sum is 7". Then n(C) = 2 and P(C) =  .
16 8
8 1
78. Let D = "Sum is an even number". Then n(D) = 8 and P(D) =  .
16 2
For Problems 80–86 , the sample space S is the set of all 5-card hands. Then n(S) = 52 C 5 .
The outcomes are equally likely.
12!
12 C 5
5!7!
80. Let A = "face cards ". Then n(A) = 12 and P ( A)    0.000305
52 C 5
52!
5!47!
82. Let B = "6-card hand with exactly two clubs".

O1: Choose 2 clubs; N1: 13 C 2
O2: Choose 4 from the set of cards which are not clubs; N2: 39 C 4
13 C 2  39C 4
Thus, N ( B ) 13 C 2  39C 4 and P ( B )   0.3151 .
52 C 6

EXERCISE 8-1 8-5
40 C 4
84. Let C = "4-card hand with no face cards". N (C )  40 C 4 and P (C )   0.3376
52 C 4
86. Let D = "7-card hand with exactly 1 king and exactly 2 jacks".
O1: Choose 1 king; N1  4 C 1  4
O2: Choose 2 jacks; N 2  4 C 2  6 .
O3: Choose 4 cards from the remaining 44 (no kings, no jacks); N 3  44 C 4 .

4  6 44 C4
Therefore, N ( D )  4  6  44C 4 and P ( D )   0.0244 .
52 C 7
88. (A) Answer depends on the results of simulation.
(B) In this case, n(S) = 4 and the probability of each outcome

1
is = 0.25.
4
90. (A) Select 400 random integers from the integers 1 through 12.
(B) Answer depends on the results of simulation.
1
(C) n(S) = 12, so P(8) = ≈ 0.083.
12
92. (A) The sample space S is the set of all possible permutations of the 6 brands taken 3 at a time, and
n ( S )  6 P3 . Thus, the probability of selecting 3 brands and identifying them correctly, with no
1
answer repeated, is: ≈ 0.0083
6 P3
1 1
(B) In this case n(S) = 6·6·6 = 63 and the probability of the event in question is = 3 ≈ 0.0046.
n( S ) 6
94. (A) Let A = "3 from A and 1 from B". Then n(A) = 15 C3  20C1 and n(S) = 35 C4 . Thus
15 C 3 20 C 1
P(A) = ≈ 0.174
35 C 4
15 C 2  20C 2
(B) Let B = "2 from A and 2 from B". Then n(B) = 15 C2  20C2 . Thus P(B) = ≈ 0.381
35 C4
15 C 4
(C) Let C = "All from A". Then n(A) = 15 C 4 and P(A) = ≈ 0.026
35 C 4
(D) Let D = "At least 3 from A", then

P(D) = P(Exactly 3 from A) + P(4 from A) = P(A) + P(C) (from parts (A) and (C) above)
≈ 0.174 + 0.026 = 0.200

1
96. Let A = "5 particular centers chosen." Then n(A) = 1 and n( S ) 8 C 5 . Thus, P(A) = ≈ 0.018.
C
8 5
98. The total number of ways of selecting an eight-person committee from the 10 senators and 16
representatives is: 26 C 8 , i.e., n ( S )  26C 8 .
(A) Let A = “An equal number of senators and representatives.” The number of ways to have 4 senators
10 C 4  16C 4
and 4 representatives is 10 C 4  16C 4 . Therefore, P ( A)   0.2446
26 C 8
(B) Let B = “An equal number of democrats and republicans.” There are 13 democrats and 13
republicans. The number of ways to have 4 democrats and 4 republicans is 13 C 4  13C 4 .
13 C 4  13C 4
Therefore, P ( B )   0.3272
26 C 8
EXERCISE 8-2
5 4
2. 12  5  12  5 4. 5  4  6  24
7 12 7 7 5 5 5 25
12 6
3 3
6. 16  16  3  16  3
3 13 16 13 13
1
16 16
n( A  B ) 12  38  23 73
8. P( A  B)     0.73
n( S ) 100 100
n( A  B  ) 12
10. P( A  B )    0.12
n(S ) 100
12. P[(A B) ']  1  P(A  B)  1  0.38  0.62
12 3
14. P(F) = = since there are 4 suits and each has 3 faces.
52 13
39 3
16. P(D’) = = since there are 13 diamonds and 39 others (hearts, clubs, spades).
52 4
9
18. P(D’  F) = since there are 9 faces which are not diamonds.
52
20. P(D’  F) = P(D’) + P(F) – P(D’  F)

From Exercises 14, 16, and 18, we have:
3 3 9
P(F) = , P(D') = , P(D’  F) = ,
13 4 52

EXERCISE 8-2 8-7
so
3 3 9 39 12 9 39  12  9 42 21
P(D’  F)= + – = + – = = =
4 13 52 52 52 52 52 52 26
30 15
22. P(D’  F’) = = since there are 39 non-diamond cards of which only 9 are face cards.
52 26
So, there are 30 non-diamond and non-face cards.
24. P(D’  F’) = P(D’) + P(F’) – P(D’  F’). From Exercises 14, 16, and 22, we have:
3 10 3 15
P(F’) = 1 – P(F) = 1 – = , P(D’) = and P(D’  F’) = . Thus,
13 13 4 26
3 10 15 39 40 30 39  40  30 49
P(D’  F’)= + – = + – = =
4 13 26 52 52 52 52 52
26. Let E = “number is even”; F = “number is multiple of 7”. Then n( E )  12, n( F )  3, n( E  F )  1

12 3 1 14
and, by Theorem 1, P ( E  F )  P( E )  P( F )  P( E  F )      0.56
25 25 25 25
1
28. Let E = “the number is less than 10 or greater than 10.” Then E ' = “the number is 10.” P ( E ')  .
25
24
Therefore, P ( E )   0.96.
25
30. Let E = “number is a multiple of 3”; F = “number is a multiple of 4”. Since E  F   , use Theorem 1:
8 6 2 12
n(E) = 8, n(F) = 6, n( E  F )  2. P(E) + P(F) – P(E  F) =     0.48
25 25 25 25
32. Let E = “number is a prime”; F = “number is less than 14”. Since E  F   , use Theorem 1:
9 13 6 16
n(E) = 9, n(F) =13, n( E  F )  6 ; P(E) + P(F) – P(E  F) =     0.64
25 25 25 25
34. Let A be the event that an automobile tire fails in less than 50,000 miles. Then A' will be the event that the
tire does not fail in 50,000 miles. Thus, P(A') = 1 – P(A) = 1 – .03 = .97.
36. P (sum greater than 9)  P(sum of 10)  P(sum of 11)  P(sum of 12)
3 2 1 6 1
    
36 36 36 36 6
38. P(number on first or second die is even)  P(first is even)  P(second is even)  P (both are even)
3 3 9 27 3
    
6 6 36 36 4
3 1 1 6
40. (A) P(E) = , (B) P(E) = , P(E ') = 1 – =
5 7 7 7
2 P( E ) 17 1
P(E ') = 1 – P(E) = Odds for E = = = (1 to 6)
5 P( E ') 6 7 6
P( E ) 3 / 5 3 P ( E ')
Odds for E :   (3 to 2) Odds against E =
P( E ') 2 / 5 2 P( E )
P( E ') 2 / 5 2 6
Odds against E:   (2 to 3) = (6 to 1)
P( E ) 3 / 5 3 1

(C) P(E) = 0.6, P ( E ') = 1 – 0.6 = 0.4

0.6 3
Odds for E = = (3 to 2)
0.4 2
0.4 2
Odds against E = = (2 to 3)
0.6 3
(D) P(E) = 0.35, P ( E ') = 1 – 0.35 = 0.65

0.35 7 0.65 13
Odds for E = = (7 to 13); Odds against E = = (13 to 7)
0.65 13 0.35 7
5 5 5 4 4 4
42. (A) Odds for E = , P(E) =  (B) Odds for E = , P(E) = 
9 5  9 14 3 43 7
3 3 23 23
(C) Odds for E = , P(E) = = 0.3 (D) Odds for E = , P(E) = = 0.23
7 3 7 77 23  77
P( E ) a
44. Odds for E = = and
P ( E ) b
P( E ) b
Odds against E = = or b : a
P( E ) a
So, the statement is true.
1
46. False. The theoretical probability of heads on one flip of a fair coin is
. If we flip this coin n times and let
2
nH be the number of times heads show up, the empirical probability of heads will be
nH 1
which may not be less than or equal to .
n 2
48. False. Flip a fair coin twice and let E be the event that both flips result in heads and F be the event that both
result in tails. Then S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}, A = {HH}, B = {TT}. A and B are mutually exclusive but
not complementary since clearly A  B ≠ S.
50. Let E = "a number divisible by 3 in a single roll of a die".

= {3, 6}
Thus, (assuming that the die is fair)

2 1
P(E) =  .
6 3
P( E ) 13 1
The odds in favor of E = = = (1 to 2), 1: 2
P( E ') 23 2
52. Let E = "1 head when a single coin is tossed twice" = {HT, TH}.
Thus, (assuming that the coin is fair or balanced)
2 1
P(E) = = .
4 2
P( E ) 12 1
The odds in favor of E = = = (1 to 1), 1: 1
P( E ') 12 1

EXERCISE 8-2 8-9
54. Let E = "2 heads when a single coin is tossed twice".

1 3
Then E = {HH} and P(E) = , P(E') = .
4 4
P( E ') 34 3
Odds against E = = = (3 to 1), 3: 1
P( E ) 14 1
56. Let E = "an odd number or a number divisible by 3 in a single roll

of a die".
4 2 1
Then E = {1, 3, 5, 6} and P(E) =  , P(E') = .
6 3 3
P( E ') 13 1
Odds against E = = = (1 to 2), 1: 2
P( E ) 23 2
58. (A) Let E = "a sum of 10 in a single roll of two fair dice".
3 1
Then E = {(4, 6), (5, 5), (6, 4)}, P(E) = =
36 12
11
and P(E') = .
12
P( E ) 1 12 1
Odds for E = = = (1 to 11), 1:11
P ( E ') 11 12 11
(B) The house should pay $11 for the game to be fair.
60. (A) Let A = "the sum is a prime number or is exactly divisible by 4".
Then P(A) = P(sum 2) + P(sum 3) + P(sum 5) + P(sum 7)
+ P(sum 11) + P(sum 4) + P(sum 8) + P(sum 12)
10  30  70  150  80  50  170  70 630

= = = 0.63
1000 1000
P ( A) 0.63 63
The odds for A =   (63 to 37), 63:37
P( A ') 0.37 37
(B) Let B = "the sum is an odd number or is exactly divisible by 3".

Then P(B) = P(sum 3) + P(sum 5) + P(sum 7) + P(sum 9)
+ P(sum 11) + P(sum 6) + P(sum 12)
650 65
=  = 0.65
1000 100
OR P(B) = P(sum odd) + P(sum divisible by 3)

– P("sum odd"  "sum divisible by 3")
30  70  150  140  80 30  110  140  70 30  140

= + –
1000 1000 1000
470 350 170 650
=    = 0.65
1000 1000 1000 1000
P( B) 0.65 65 13
The odds for B = =   (13 to 7), 13:7
P( B ') 0.35 35 7

62. Let A = "a king or a heart is drawn". Then P(A) = P(a king) + P(a heart) – P( king of hearts)
4 13 1 16 4
=    
52 52 52 52 13
P ( A) 4 13 4
Odds for A = =  (4 to 9), 4:9
P( A ') 9 13 9
64. Let B = "a heart or a number less than 7". Then
P(B) = P(a heart) + P(a number less than 7) – P("a heart"  "a number less than 7")
13 24 6 31
Thus, P(B) =    .
52 52 52 52
66. Let A = "at least 1 black card in a 7-card hand dealt from a standard 52-card deck".
Then A' = "0 black cards in a 7-card hand dealt from a standard 52-card deck".
n(A') = 26 C 7 since there are 26 non-black cards; n(S) = 26 C 7 . Thus,
26 C 7 26 C 7
P(A') = and hence P(A) = 1 – = 1 – 0.005 = 0.995
52 C 7 52 C 7
68. Let A = "the selected number is divisible by 6," B = "the selected number is divisible by 9".
Then P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)
A number divisible by 6 will be 6k for k = 1, 2, …, 60, therefore n(A) = 10.
A number divisible by 9 will be 9k' for k' = 1, 2, …, 60, therefore n(B) = 6.
A number divisible by 6 and by 9 is divisible by 18 and will be 18k for k = 1, 2, …, 66, therefore,
n( A  B )  3 .
10 6 3 13
Thus, P(A  B) =    ≈ 0.2167.
60 60 60 60
70. The equation holds if the events A, B, and C are pairwise mutually exclusive.
74. n(S) = 100  100  100 = 100n, because each of the n people is free to choose any of the numbers

between 1 and 100.

Let A = "at least two people choose the same number". Then A' = "all n people choose different
numbers".
100! 100!
Note that n(A') = 100 Pn  and hence P(A') = . Thus,
(100  n )! (100  n)!100n
100!
P(A) = 1 – P(A') = 1 – .
(100  n)!100n
c c d c
76. If P ( E )  , then P( E ')  1   , and the odds in favor of E are
d d d
c
P (E) d c d c
    or c to d – c.
P ( E ') d  c d d  c d  c
d

EXERCISE 8-2 8-11
78. (A) The command selects 50 random integers from 2 through 12. Unlike the sum of a pair of dice, a 2 is
just as likely as a 7.
(B) Selecting a ball at random from a box containing 11 balls numbered 2 through 12, repeated 50 times.
(C) Answer depends on the results of simulation.
80. (A) Let A = "the selected student owns a car", and B = "the selected student owns a laptop".
450 750 350
Then P(A) = = 0.45, P(B) = = 0.75 and P(A  B) = = 0.35
1000 1000 1000
Now, P(the student does not own a car) = P(A') = 1 – P(A) = 1 – 0.45 = 0.55
(B) P(the student owns a car but not a laptop) = P(A  B') = P(A) – P(A  B) = 0.45 – 0.35 = 0.10.
82. (A) Let A = "the driver has an accident," B = "the driver drives more than 15,000 miles per year".
Then P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.5, and P(A  B) = 0.15.
Thus, P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B) = 0.3 + 0.5 – 0.15 = 0.65
(B) P(A  B') = P(A) – P(A  B) = 0.3 – 0.15 = 0.15
84. Let A = "1 or more defective found in a sample of 10." Then A' = "no defective found in a sample of 10".
33 C 10 33 C 10
n(A') = 33 C 10 , n(S) = 40 C 10 , P(A') = , and P(A) = 1 – = 0.89.
40 C 10 40 C 10
86. Let A = "at least one union employee is selected". Then A' = "no union employee is selected".
12 C 4
Therefore, n(A') = 12 C 4 , n(S) = 20 C 4 , and P(A') = .
20 C 4
12 C 4
Thus, P(A) = 1 – P(A') = 1 – ≈ 0.90.
20 C 4
88. Let A = "the resident is a Democrat", B = "prefers candidate B", and C = "has no preference".
500 530 85 250
Then P  A    0.5 , P  B    0.53 , P(C) = = 0.085, P(A  B) = = 0.25,
1000 1000 1000 1000
50
P(C  A) = = 0.05.
1000
(A) P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B) = 0.5 + 0.53 – 0.25 = 0.78
0.78 0.78 78 39
The odds for this event =    (39 to 11), 39:11.
1  0.78 0.22 22 11
(B) P(A'  C) = P(C) – P(A  C) = 0.085 – 0.05 = 0.035
1  0.035 965 193

The odds against this event =   (193 to 7), 193:7.
0.035 35 7

EXERCISE 8-3
2. 4.
6.
8. R = card is red, F = card is a face card; n( R )  26, n( F )  12, n( R  F )  6.
6
P( R  F ) 52 1
P( R | F )   
P( F ) 12 2
52
10. F = card is a face card, R = card is red; n( R )  26, n( F )  12, n( R  F )  6.
6
P ( F  R ) 52 6 3
P( F | R )    
P( R ) 26 26 13
52
12. J = card is a jack, R = card is red; n( J )  4, n( R )  26, n( J  R )  2.
2
P ( J  R ) 52 2 1
P( J | R )    
P( R ) 26 26 13
52
14. R = card is red, J = card is a jack; n( J )  4, n( R )  26, n( J  R )  2.
2
P( R  J ) 52 2 1
P( R | J )    
P( J ) 4 4 2
52
To find the conditional probabilities in Problems 16 – 22, construct a table similar to those in Section 8.2.
16. T = sum is 10, D = roll is doubles. n(T )  3, n( D )  6, n(T  D )  1 .
1
P (T  D ) 36 1
P (T | D )   
P( D) 6 6
36

EXERCISE 8-3 8-13
18. D = roll is doubles, T = sum is 10. n( D )  6, n(T )  3, n(T  D )  1 .
1
P ( D  T ) 36 1
P ( D |T )   
P (T ) 3 3
36
20. A = sum is odd, B = at least one six. n( A)  18, n( B )  11, n( A  B )  6 .
6
P ( A  B ) 36 6
P( A| B )   
P( B ) 11 11
36
22. B = at least one six , A = sum is odd . n( A)  18, n( B )  11, n( A  B )  6 .
6
P ( B  A) 36 6 1
P ( B | A)    
P( A) 18 18 3
36
24. P(E) = .40 26. P(C  E) = .07
See the given table. See the given table.
P (C  E ) 0.07 P ( E  C ) 0.07
28. P(C | E )    0.175 30. P( E | C )    0.35
P( E ) 0.40 P (C ) 0.2
P ( E  A) 0.28 P( B  B) P( B) .1
32. P ( E | A)    0.40 34. P(B |B ) = = = =1
P ( A) 0.7 P( B) P( B) .1
36. P(A) = 0.70, P(E) = 0.40, P(A  E) = 0.28.

Since P(A  E) = 0.28 = P(A)P(E) = (0.70)(0.40) = 0.28, the events A and E are independent.
38. Dependent. Observe that:

P(E) = 0.40, P(B) = 0.10 and P(E  B) = 0.05
and
P(E  B) = 0.05 ≠ P(E)P(B) = (0.40)(0.10) = 0.04
40. P(C) = 0.20, P ( F )  0.30 , P (C  F )  0.06 .

Since P (C  F )  0.06  P (C ) P ( F )  (0.20)(0.30)  0.06 , the events C and F are independent.
42. Dependent. Observe that the events D and F are mutually exclusive. That means if one occurs, the other
cannot occur, so they are dependent events.
1
44. (A) Since the rolls are independent, probability of getting a 6 on the fifth roll is regardless of what
6
happened on the first four rolls.
(B) n(S) = 6·6·6·6·6 = 65 and if A = "same number turns up each time",

6 1
then n(A) = 6 (either 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) and P(A) = 5 = 4 ≈ 0.000772.
6 6

46. Let E = "pointer lands on an odd number", and F = "pointer lands on a prime number".
Then P(E) = 0.3 + 0.2 + 0.1 = 0.6 (E = {1, 3, 5}), P(F) = 0.1 + 0.2 + 0.1 = 0.4 (F = {2, 3, 5})
P(E  F) = 0.2 + 0.1 = 0.3 (E  F = {3, 5})
P( F  E ) 0.3 1
(A) P(F |E ) = = = .
P( E ) 0.6 2
1
(B) Since P(F |E ) = ≠ P(F) = 0.4, these two events are not independent.
2
OR Since P(E  F) = 0.3 ≠ P(E)P(F) = (0.6)(0.4) = 0.24, the events E and F are not independent.
48. (A) P(N  R) = P(N)·P(R |N) = (0.7)(0.4) = 0.28.
(B) P(S) = P(M  S) + P(N  S) = P(M)·P(S |M) + P(N)·P(S |N) = (0.3)(0.8) + (0.7)(0.6)
= 0.24 + 0.42 = 0.66
50. E1 = {HH, HT}, E3 = {HT, TT}, E4 = {HH, TH}, E1  E3 = {HT}, E3  E4 =  .
(A) E1 and E3 are independent (and not mutually exclusive) since

1  2  2  1
P(E1  E3) = = P(E1)·P(E3) =     = .
4  4  4  4
(B) E3 and E4 are mutually exclusive (and dependent) since they have no common elements.
52. Let A = "at least 5 on the first throw", and B = "at least 5 on the second throw".
Since the throws are independent , the events A and B are independent. Thus,
 2  2  1
P(A  B) = P(A)P(B) =     = .
 6  6  9
2 2 1 1 1 1 5
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B) = + – = + – =
6 6 9 3 3 9 9
54. Let A = "the first selected card is red", and B = "the second selected card is red".
Then we are interested in computing P(A  B); P(A  B) = P(A)·P(B |A )
26 1
(A) Without replacement: P(A) = = since there are 26 red cards in a deck. After the selection of a
52 2
red card, the deck will have 51 cards left of which 25 are red. So probability of choosing a second red card
25
given that the first selected card was red is P(B |A ) = . Therefore
51
 1   25  25
P(A  B) =     = ≈ 0.245
2
   51 102
26 26
(B) With replacement: In this case P(A) = and P(B |A ) = and hence P(A  B) =
52 52
2
 26  1
 52  = 4 = 0.25.
 
56. We note that n(M) = 13, n(N) = 20 (since the even cards are 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 and there are 4 of each),
n(M  N) = 5 (since there are only 5 even diamond cards).

EXERCISE 8-3 8-15
5
P( N  M ) 52 5
(A) P(N|M) = = = .
P( M ) 13 13
52
20 5
(B) P(N) = = . Since P(N|M ) = P(N), the events M and N are independent.
52 13
5 13 20 5
OR Since P(M  N) = = P(M)P(N) = × = these events are independent.
52 52 52 52
58. (A) 2 coins are tossed.

1 2 1
Note that S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}, A = {HH}, B = {HH, TT} and P(A) = , P(B) = = .
4 4 2
1
A  B = {HH} and hence P(A  B) = .
4
1 1 1 1
A and B are dependent since P(A  B) = ≠ P(A) P(B) = × =
4 4 2 8
(B) 3 coins are tossed.

In this case, S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
A = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH}, B = {HHH, TTT}, A  B = {HHH}
4 1 2 1 1
Thus, P(A) = = , P(B) =  , and P(A  B) = .
8 2 8 4 8
The events A and B are independent since
1  1  1  1
P(A  B) = = P(A)P(B) =     = .
8  2  4  8
60. P(R2) = P(R1  R2) + P(W1  R2)

= P(R1)P(R2|R1) + P(W1)P(R2|W1)
 2  2   5  2  2
=        
 7  7   7  7  7
 2  1   5  2  2
P(R2) =        
 7  6   7  6  7
which is the same as in (A).
(Are you surprised to get the same answer?)

62. (A) From Problem 60 part (A) we have: P(both balls have the same color)
= P(R1  R2) + P(W1  W2) = P(R1)P(R2|R1) + P(W1)P(W2|W1)

 2   2   5   5  4 25 29
=     +    = + =
 7   7   7   7  49 49 49
(B) From problem 60 part (B) we have: P(both balls have the same color)
= P(R1  R2) + P(W1  W2) = P(R1)P(R2|R1) + P(W1)P(W2|W1)

 2   1   5   4  2 20 22 11
=     +    = + = =
 7   6   7   6  42 42 42 21
64. False. Let P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.3 and P(A  B) = 0.12. Then clearly A and B are independent since
P(A  B) = P(A)P(B).
P( A  B) P( A) P( B )
However, P(A|B) = = = P(A) = 0.4 and
P( B) P( B)
P( A  B) P( A) P ( B )
P(B|A) = = = P(B) = 0.3 and thus, P(A|B) ≠ P(B|A).
P ( A) P ( A)
66. False. Consider the sample space S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} and the events A = {HH, HT, TH},
B = {TH, HT}.
P( A  B) P( B)
Then P(A  B) = P(B) and P(A|B) = = = 1 which is not less than or equal to P(B) since
P( B) P( B)
B ≠ S.
68. False. This statement fails whenever P ( A)  0 and P ( B )  0 . If A and B are independent, then
P ( A  B )  P ( A) P ( B ) and if A and B mutually exclusive then P ( A  B )  0 . So the statement implies
that for independent events A and B, we always have P ( A) P( B)  0 . However, whenever P ( A)  0 and
P ( B )  0 , we have P ( A) P( B)  0 .
70. True. Observe that:

 n  m  nm
P(W1  R2) = P(W1)P(R2|W1) =     = ;
 n  m   n  m 1  (n  m)(n  m  1)
 m  n  nm
P(R1  W2) = P(R1)P(W2|R1) =    n  m  1  = (n  m)(n  m  1) .
 n  m  
So, P(W1  R2) = P(R1  W2).

EXERCISE 8-3 8-17
72. R2  R1  R 2 P(both balls are the same color)

1
8 3
8 = P(R1  R2) + P(W1  W2) + P(G1  G2)
4 W2
R1 8
2 = P(R1)P(R2|R1) + P(W1)P(W2|W1)
G2
9 R2
3
2 + P(G1)P(G2|G1)
8 2
9
W2  W 1  W 2
8
Start W1
2 1 3 2 4 3
4
4 5
9 8 =   8 + 9 8 + 9  8  = 18
R 2 G2 9          
2
8 3
G1 8
3 W2
8
G2  G 1  G 2
74. (A) P(Ann wins the match) = P(W1  W2) + P(W1  L2  W3) + P(L1  W2  W3),
where Wi is the event that Ann wins the ith set and Li is the event that Ann loses the ith set. Thus,
P(Ann wins the match) = P(W1)P(W2) + P(W1)P(L2)P(W3) + P(L1)P(W2)P(W3) =

2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 20
3 3 + 3 3  3 + 3  3   3  = 27  0.741
             
(B) P(3sets are played)=P(Ann wins in 3sets)+P(Barbara wins in 3sets).

P(Ann wins in 3 sets) = P(W1  L2  W3) + P(L1  W2  W3)
= P(W1)P(L2)P(W3) + P(L1)P(W2)P(W3)
2 1 2 1 2 2 8
=     +     =
 3 3  3 3  3  3 27
1 2 1 2 1 1 4
P(Barbara wins in 3 sets) =    3 3 +  3  3   3  = 27
3        
8 4 12 4
Thus, P(3 sets are played) = + =   0.444
27 27 27 9
(C) P(Ann wins the match) + P(Barbara wins the match)

= P(W1  W2) + P(W1  L2  W3) + P(W1*  W2*) + P(W1*  L2*  W3*),
where Wi*, Li* refer to Barbara's winning and losing events per set.
2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 2  1  12  4  3  2 21 7
=    +   3  3 + 3 3 + 3 3 3=    0.778
3 3 3               27 27 9
P( A  B )
76. Suppose P ( A | B )  P ( A). Since P ( A | B )  , it follows that
P( B )
P( A  B )
 P( A) and P( A  B )  P( A) P ( B ). Thus, A and B are independent. Similarly if
P( B )
P ( B | A)  P ( B ).

78. Since A  A '  U (universal set), B  U  B  (A  A ')  B  ( A  B )  ( A ' B ) .

Also, ( A  B )  ( A ' B )  . Therefore P ( B )  P[( A  B )  ( A ' B )]  P( A  B )  P( A ' B ).
P ( A  B ) P ( A ' B ) P ( A  B )  P ( A ' B ) P ( B )
Now P ( A | B )  P ( A ' | B )      1.
P( B ) P( B ) P( B ) P( B )
P( A  B ) P( B )
80. Suppose P ( B )  0. If B  A, then A  B  B and P ( A | B )    1.
P( B ) P( B )
82. Let A = "car is produced at plant A," B = "car has defective emission control devices".
Then P(A) = 0.37, P(B |A) = 0.05, P(A  B) = P(A)P(B |A) = (0.37)(0.05) = 0.0185.
84. 0.40 P1 (A) P(passing on the first or second try)

Start = P(P1) + P(F1  P2) = 0.40 + P(F1)P(P2|F1) =
0.60 P2
0.60 F1 0.40 + (0.60)(0.60) = 0.40 + 0.36 = 0.76
0.20 P3
0.40 F2 (B) P(F1  F2  P3) = (0.60)(0.40)(0.20) = 0.048
0.80 F3 (C) P(F1  F2  F3) = (0.60)(0.40)(0.80) = 0.192
86. (A) F F' Totals

C 0.002 0.024 0.026
C' 0.518 0.456 0.974
Total 0.520 0.480 1.000
P( F  C ) 0.002 1
(B) P( F | C )  =  ≈ 0.077. F and C are not independent, P ( F | C )  P ( F ) .
P (C ) 0.026 13
P (C  F ') 0.024 0.024

(C) P (C | F ')    0.05 = = 0.05. C and F’ are not independent.
P( F ') 0.480 0.480
P (C | F ')  P (C ) .
P (C  F ) n(C  F ) 104 P (C  F ') n(C  F ') 96

88. (A) P (C | F )     0.2 , P (C | F ')     0.2
P( F ) n( F ) 520 P ( F ') n( F ') 480
n(C  F ) 104
(B) P (C  F )    0.104.
1000 1000
(C) Since P (C | F )  0.2  P (C ) and P (C | F ')  0.2  P(C ), C and F are independent events, and C
and F’ are independent events.
EXERCISE 8-4
2 2
2 2
7 7 2 28 8 7  2  2  4  2  8  2  10
2.   7    4.
1 2 7 8 15 7 15 15 1 7 7 1 7 7 7 7
 
4 7 28 28 28 4

EXERCISE 8-4 8-19
1 2 2 2 2

5 3 2 60 2
6.  15  15  15   
1 2 4 1 2 4 8 12 20 15 20 5
    
5 3 5 4 15 20 60 60 60
8. P(N  B) = P(N)P(B |N) = (0.4)(0.8) = 0.32
10. P(B) = P(M  B) + P(N  B) = P(M)P(B |M ) + P(N)P(B |N) = (0.6)(0.3) + (0.4)(0.8) = 0.50
P( N  B) P( N ) P( B | N ) (0.4)(0.8) 0.32
12. P(N|B) = = = =  0.64 .
P( N  B)  P( M  B) P( B) 0.5 0.5
14. Referring to the Venn diagram:

35
P(U 2  R ) 100 35 7
P(U2|R) = = =  ≈ 0.58
P( R) 60 60 12
100
Using Bayes' formula:
P (U 2  R ) P (U 2 ) P ( R | U 2 )
P(U2|R) = =
P (U1  R)  P (U 2  R ) P(U1 ) P ( R | U1 )  P (U 2 ) P( R | U 2 )
 60   35 
 100   60  0.35 35 7
=    =   ≈ 0.58
 40   25   60  35  0.60 60 12

 100   40   100  60 
     
16. Referring to the Venn diagram:

25
P(U 2  R ') 25
P(U2|R') = = 100 = = 0.625
P( R ') 40 40
100
Using Bayes' formula:
P (U 2 ) P ( R '| U 2 )
P(U2|R') =
P(U1 ) P ( R ' | U1 )  P (U 2 ) P ( R '| U 2 )
 60   25 
 100   60  0.25 0.25
=    =  = 0.625
 40   15   60   25  0.15  0.25 0.40
 100   40    100   60 
     
P (V  C ') P (V  C ')
18. Referring to the tree diagram: P (V | C ')  
P (C ') P(U  C ')  P(V  C ')  P(W  C ')
P (V ) P (C ' | V )

P (U ) P (C ' | U )  P (V ) P(C ' | V )  P(W ) P(C ' | W )
(0.6)(0.5) 0.30
   0.50
(0.1)(0.6)  (0.6)(0.5)  (0.3)(0.8) 0.60
P (U  C ') (0.1)(0.6) 0.06

20. P (U | C ')     0.10
P (U  C ')  P(V  C ')  P(W  C ') 0.60 0.60

P (W  C ') (0.3)(0.8) 0.24

22. P (W | C ')     0.40
P (U  C ')  P(V  C ')  P(W  C ') 0.60 0.60
2
24. From the tree diagram: P ( B ) 
3
1 4 2 3 10 2
26. P ( D)  P ( A  D)  P ( B  D)  P ( A) P( D | A)  P( B) P( D | B)      
3 5 3 5 15 3
2 3

P( B  D) 3 5 3
28. P( B | D)   
P( D) 2 5
3
30. From the first tree we have
P(D) = P(A  D) + P(B  D) + P(C  D) = P(A)P(D |A) + P(B)P(D |B) + P(C)P(D |C)
 1  1   1  3   1  1  1  1 3 2  1  6  1
=            =        
 3  8   3  8   3  4  3  8 8 8  3  8  4
1 3
Thus, P(D') = 1 – P(D) = 1 – =
4 4
 1  1 
P( A  D) P( A) P ( D | A)  3   8  1
P(A |D) = = = =
P( D) P( D) 1 6
4
 1  3 
P( B  D) P( B ) P ( D | B)  3   8  1
P(B |D) = = = =
P( D) P( D) 1 2
4
 1  1 
P(C  D) P(C ) P ( D | C )  3  
 4  = 1
P(C|D ) = = =
P( D) P( D) 1 3
4
 1  7 
P( A  D ') P( A) P ( D ' | A)  3   8  7
P(A |D') = = = =
P( D ') P ( D ') 3 18
4
 1  5 
P( B  D ') P( B) P ( D ' | B)  3   8  5
P(B |D') = = = =
P( D ') P ( D ') 3 18
4
 1  3 
P(C  D ') P(C ) P ( D ' | C )  3  
 4  = 1
P(C|D') = = =
P( D ') P( D ') 3 3
4

EXERCISE 8-4 8-21
Therefore, we have:
The following tree diagram is to be used for Problems 32 and 34.
1
5
= .2
W (white)
U1 (urn 1)
.5
4 R (red)
5
= .8
Start
3
5
= .6 W
.5 U2 (urn 2)
2 R
5
= .4
P (U 2 ) P (W | U 2 )
32. P(U2|W) =
P(U1 ) P (W | U1 )  P (U 2 ) P (W | U 2 )
(0.5)(0.6) 0.30 3
= = = = 0.75
(0.5)(0.2)  (0.5)(0.6) 0.10  0.30 4
P (U1 ) P ( R | U1 )
34. P(U1|R) =
P(U1 ) P ( R | U1 )  P(U 2 ) P ( R | U 2 )
(0.5)(0.8) 0.40 2
= = = ≈ 0.67
(0.5)(0.8)  (0.5)(0.4) 0.60 3
P ( R1 ) P( R2 | R1 )
36. P(R1|R2) =
P( R1 ) P ( R2 | R1 )  P(W1 ) P( R2 | W1 )
 4  3   4  3   4  3 
 9  8   9  8   9  8  3
=    =    =    = = 0.375
 4  3   5  4  43 5 4 8
 9  8    9  8  
9  8 8  9
(1)
     

P (UW1 ) P (UW2 | UW1 )

38. P(UW |UW ) =
1 2 P(UW1  UW2 )  P (U R1  UW2 )
P(UW1 ) P(UW2 | UW1 )
=
P(UW1 ) P(UW2 | UW1 )  P(U R1 ) P(UW2 | U R1 )
 3  6 
 10   10 
=    ≈ 0.34
 3   6   7  5 
 10   10    10  10 
      
The tree diagram follows:

5
10 UR where UR is red from urn 1,
2
7
10
UR 1
1
UW UR is red from urn 2,
5
2 2
Start 10
4 UW is white from urn 1,
3
10 UR
2
1
10 UW and UW is white from urn 2.
1 6 2
10 UW
2
40. Since M  N  , P ( M | N )  0  P ( M ); the events are dependent.
42. (A) False:

Example: Suppose an urn contains 2 blue balls and 3 white balls:
P( B1 ) P (W2 | B1 )
P(B1|W2) =
P (W2 )
 2  3 
 5  5  6 2
=    = =
 2   3   3  3  15 5
 5   5    5  5 
      
3 2
P(W2|B1) = ≠
5 5
(B) False:
Example: We use the same urn as in (A):
1  2  3   2  3 
4 B2  5  4   5  4  1
2 B1 P(B1|W2) =    =    =
5
 2  3   3   2  3 2 2 2
3 W2  5  4    5   4  
5  4 4 
Start 4       
2
4 B2
3
5 W1
W2 3 1
2 P(W2|B1) = ≠
4 4 2

EXERCISE 8-4 8-23
44. Let E1 = "the first ball chosen has number 4 on it", E2 = "the first ball chosen has a number less than 4
on it", and E3 = "the first ball chosen has a number greater than 4 on it".
Let A = "the second ball has number 4 on it". Then we are interested in computing P(E2|A).
P( E2 ) P( A | E2 )
P(E2|A) =
P( E1 ) P( A | E1 )  P( E2 ) P( A | E2 )  P( E3 ) P( A | E3 )
 3  1 
 10  9  1
=    =
 1   3  1   6   1  3
 10  (0)   10  9    10   9 
        
For the second part, let

F1 = "the first ball chosen has number 4 on it",
F2 = "the first ball chosen has an even number different from 4 on it",
and F3 = "the first ball chosen has an odd number on it".
We are interested in computing P(F2|A) where A is defined above.

P ( F2 ) P( A | F2 )
P(F2|A) =
P( F1 ) P ( A | F1 )  P( F2 ) P( A | F2 )  P( F3 ) P( A | F3 )
 4  1 
 10  9  4
P(F2|A) =    =
 1   4  1   5   1  9
 10  (0)   10  9    10   9 
        
A tree diagram for Problems 46–60
1 1 1 26 1 13 103
46. P ( B2 )  P ( B1  B2 )  P( R1  B2 )         0.5049
2 2 2 51 4 51 204
1 26

P ( R1  B2 ) 2 51 26 204 52
48. P ( R1 | B2 )       0.5049
P( B2 ) 103 102 103 103
204

1 1
P ( B1  B2 ) 2  2 1 204 51
50. P ( B1 | B2 )       0.4951
P( B2 ) 103 4 103 103
204
P (U1  E )
52. By Bayes formula, P (U1 | E )  . Since the sample space is equally likely,
P (U1  E )  P (U 2  E )
n( A)
P ( A)  for any event A. Therefore,
n( S )
n(U1  E ) n(U1  E )
P (U1  E ) n( S ) n( S ) n(U1  E )
  
P (U1  E )  P(U 2  E ) n(U1  E )  n(U 2  E ) n(U1  E )  n(U 2  E ) n(U1  E )  n(U 2  E )
n( S ) n( S ) n( S )
54. Consider the following tree diagram:
Let A = "the person hired has work experience".

We must find P(S |A).
P( S ) P( A | S )
P(S |A) =
P( S ) P( A | S )  P( NS ) P( A | NS )
(0.75)(0.80)
= ≈ 0.86
(0.75)(0.80)  (0.25)(0.40)
Now we want to compute P(S | A').
P( S ) P( A ' | S )
P(S |A') =
P( S ) P ( A ' | S )  P( NS ) P( A ' | NS )
(0.75)(0.20)
= = 0.50
(0.75)(0.20)  (0.25)(0.60)

EXERCISE 8-4 8-25

0.20
R
A NR
0.60 0.80
0.15
0.25
R
Start B
0.85
NR
0.15 0.05
C R
0.95
NR
where R = "a flash drive is returned for service during warranty period".
Want to compute:
P( A) P ( R | A) (0.60)(0.20)
P(A |R ) = = ≈ 0.73;
P( A) P ( R | A)  P( B) P( R | B)  P(C ) P( R | C ) (0.60)(0.20)  (0.25)(0.15)  (0.15)(0.05)
(0.25)(0.15) (0.15)(0.05)
P(B |R ) = ≈ 0.23; P(C|R) ≈ ≈ 0.05
P( R) P( R)

0.92
TP
0.5 P
0.08 TNP
Start
0.12
0.5 TP
NP
0.88
TNP
where TP means test shows pregnancy and TNP means test does not show pregnancy.
P(TP) = P(P)P(TP|P) + P(NP)P(TP|NP)

= (0.5)(0.92) + (0.5)(0.12) = 0.52
P ( P ) P (TP | P ) (0.5)(0.92)
Now, the question is P(P|TP) = = ≈ 0.88
P (TP ) 0.52
Finally, we need to compute P(NP|TNP).
P ( NP ) P (TNP | NP ) (0.5)(0.88)
P(NP|TNP) = = ≈ 0.92
P( NP ) P (TNP | NP )  P( P) P(TNP | P) (0.5)(0.88)  (0.5)(0.08)
0.90 H1 where T means the subject has tuberculosis and

0.07
H2 T ' means the subject does not have tuberculosis.
0.08
T H1 means the test shows the subject has tuberculosis;
0.03 H3
Start H2 means the test is inconclusive;
0.05 H1 H3 means the test indicates no tuberculosis.
0.92 0.10
T' H2
0.85 H3

We are asked to compute P(T|H1).
P(T ) P ( H1 | T )
P(T|H1) =
P(T ) P( H1 | T )  P (T ') P ( H1 | T ')
(0.08)(0.90)
= ≈ 0.61
(0.08)(0.90)  (0.92)(0.05)
Finally,
P (T ') P ( H 2 | T ')
P(T ' |H2) =
P(T ') P ( H 2 | T ')  P (T ) P ( H 2 | T )
(0.92)(0.10)
= ≈ 0.94
(0.92)(0.10)  (0.08)(0.07)

0.70
P
0.45
D P'
0.30
0.40
P
0.35
Start R
0.60
P'
0.20 0.80
I P
0.20
P'
where P means voted in favor of a park and recreation land proposal.

The question is P(R|P) = ?, P(I|P) = ?, P(D|P) = ?
P( R) P( P | R)
P(R|P) =
P( D) P( P | D)  P( R) P( P | R)  P( I ) P( P | I )
(0.35)(0.40)
= ≈ 0.23;
(0.45)(0.70)  (0.35)(0.40)  (0.20)(0.80)
P( I ) P ( P | I ) (0.20)(0.80)
P(I|P) = = ≈ 0.26;
P( P) P( P)
P( D) P ( P | D) (0.45)(0.70)
P(D|P) = = ≈ 0.51
P( P) P( P)
EXERCISE 8-5
78  64  97  60  86  83 468
2. Average =   78.
6 6
75  61  94  57  83  80 450
4. Average =   75.
6 6

EXERCISE 8-5 8-27
39  32  48.5  30  43  41.5 234

6. Average =   39.
6 6
8. Expected value of X:
E(X) = (–2)(0.1) + (–1)(0.2) + (0)(0.4) + (1)(0.2) + (2)(0.1) = 0.
1 1 1 1 1 181
10. Expected value: E ( X )  1   10   20   50   100    36.20; $36.20
5 5 5 5 5 5
120 80 6 20 26
12. Expected value: E ( X )  0.05   0.25      0.13; $0.13
200 200 200 200 200
4 48 104
14. Expected value: E ( X )  104   0  8; $8
52 52 13
16. A family with two children may have 0, 1, or 2 boys.

1 1 1
P(0 boys) = P(GG) =     =
2 2 4
1 1 1
P(1 boy) = P(BG) + P(GB) = + =
4 4 2
1
P(2 boys) = P(BB) =
4
Thus, the probability distribution is given by:
xi 0 1 2 1 1 1
E(X) = 0· + 1· + 2· = 1.
pi 14 12 14 4 2 4
18. Assign a payoff of $1 to the event of observing a head and –$1 to the event of observing a tail. Thus, the
payoff table for X is:
xi 1 1
pi 0.45 0.55
Hence, E(X) = (–1)(0.45) + (1)(0.55) = 0.10 or 10¢.

The game is not fair since E(X) ≠ 0.
20. The table shows a payoff or probability distribution for the game.
Net gain
xi –2.50 –1.50 –0.50 0.50 1.50 2.50
pi 1 1 1 1 1 1
6 6 6 6 6 6
1 1 1 1 1 1

E(X)=(–2.50)   +(–1.50)   +(–0.50)   +(0.50)   + (1.50)   + (2.50)   = 0.
6 6 6 6 6 6
The game is fair.

22. The probability distribution is:
Number of Heads Gain, xi Probability,pi

1
0 2 4
1 x 1
2
1
2 2 4
The expected value is:

1 1 1
E(X) = 2 · + (–x) · +2· =0
4 2 4
x
or = 1, x = 2. So if you lose $2 if a head and a tail turn up,
2
then the game will be fair.
3
5
24. P(at least one 5) = 1 – P(no 5 in 3 rolls) = 1 –  
6
3 3
5 5
So, your net gain is –$10 with a probability of 1 –   and is $7 with a probability of   .
6 6
  5 3  5
3
Thus, E(X) = (–10) 1     + (7)   ≈ –$0.16.
  6   6
26. Let x = amount you should win if a number not divisible by 3 turns up. Payoff table or probability
distribution for this game is:
Net gain
xi –12 x P(die shows a number divisible by 3)
pi 2 4 1 1 2
6 6 = P(3) + P(6) = + =
6 6 6
2 4
Game is fair if E(X) = 0, i.e. (–12)   + x   = 0 or x = $6.
6
  6
28. Probability distribution for this game is:
Number of Heads Gain, xi Probability,pi
1
0 3 8
3
1 x 8
2 2 3
8
3 3 1
8
1 3 3 1

This game is fair if E(X) = (3)   + x   + (–2)   + (–3)   = 0
8 8 8 8
or 3 + 3x – 6 – 3 = 0 or 3x = 6, x = $2.

EXERCISE 8-5 8-29
30. Assign a payoff of –$4 to the event of drawing a non-diamond card and $10 to the event of drawing a
diamond card. Thus, the probability distribution for x, your net gain, is:
xi –$4 $10
pi 39 13
52 52
 39   13  26
Hence, E(X) = (–4)   + 10   = – = –$0.50.
 52   52  52
32. Assign a payoff of –$4 to the event that the hand contains no diamonds and $10 to the event that the hand
contains at least one diamond. Thus, the probability distribution for x, your net gain, is:
xi –$4 $10
pi C39,5 C39,5
1–
C52,5 C52,5
 C   39 C 5   39 C 5 
Hence, E(X) = (–4)  39 5  + 10  1   = 10 – 14  
 52 C 5   
52 C 5 
 52 C 5 
    
39!
5!34! 39  38  37  36  35
= 10 – 14 = 10 – 14 · = 10 – 14(.2215) = 10 – 3.10 = 6.90
52! 52  51  50  49  48
5!47!
34. A1: E(X) = (500)(0.2) + (1,200)(0.4) + (1,200)(0.3) + (1,200)(0.1)

= 100 + 960 = $1,060
A2: E(X) = (400)(0.2) + (1,100)(0.4) + (1,800)(0.3) + (1,800)(0.1)
= 80 + 440 + 720 = $1,240
A3: E(X) = (300)(0.2) + (1,000)(0.4) + (1,700)(0.3) + (2,400)(0.1)
= 60 + 400 + 510 + 240 = $1,210
A2 will produce the largest expected value, which is $1,240.
36. The payoff table or probability distribution for the net gain X is:
payoff table
xi $1 –$1
pi 18 20
38 38
 18   20  2 1
E(X) = (1)   + (–1)   = – =– = –$0.05
 38   38  38 19
38. Let p = probability of winning. Then

–0.50 = E(X) = (18)(p) + (–2)(1 – p).
We solve this equation for p:
20p – 2 = –0.50
20p = 1.5
1.5
p= = 0.075
20

40. Let X = net gain, then the probability distribution of x is:

Net gain xi –2 98 498 998
pi 9984 10 4 2
10, 000 10, 000 10, 000 10, 000
E(X) = (–2)(0.9984) + (98)(0.001) + (498)(0.0004) + (998)(0.0002)

= –$1.50
8! 8! 8  7  6!
42. (A) Total number of outcomes = n(S) = 8 C 2 = = = = 28
2!(8  2)! 2!6! 2  6!
5!
5C 2 2!3! 10 5
P(zero defective) = P(0) = = = =
8C 2 28 28 14
5 C 1  3C 1 53 15
P(one defective) = P(1) = = =
8C 2 28 28
3C 2 3
P(two defectives) = P(2) = =
8C 2 28
Probability distribution of X, the number of defectives in the sample is:

xi 0 1 2
pi 5 15 3
14 28 28
 5  15   3  15 6 21 3
(B) E(X) = (0)   + (1)   + (2)   = + = = = 0.75
 14   28   28  28 28 28 4
44. (A) The total number of outcomes n(s) = 1000 C 10
997 C 10
P(0 winning ticket) = P(0) = ≈ 0.970
1000 C 10
3 C 1  997 C 10
P(1 winning ticket) = P(1) = ≈ 0.0295
C1000,10
C3,2  C997,8
P(2 winning tickets) = P(2) = ≈ 0.000 268
C1000,10
C3,3  C997,7
P(3 winning tickets) = P(3) = ≈ 0.000 000 722
C1000,10
The payoff table is as follows:

xi –$10 $190 $390 $590
pi 0.970 0.0295 0.000 268 0.000 000 722
(B) E(X) = (–10)(0.970) + (190)(0.0295) + (390)(0.000 268)

+ (590)(0.000 000 722) ≈ –$4
46. The simulated gain or loss depends on the results of the simulation; the expected loss is $21.05.

EXERCISE 8-5 8-31
48. Consider the following table:
Number of
0 1 2 3
Kings
Winning w 100 200 300
C48,3 C4,1 C48,2 C4,2 C48,1 C4,3
Probability C52,3 C52,3 C52,3 C52,3
0.7826 0.2042 0.0130 0.0002
In order for the game to be fair we need to have

expected winning = 0; i.e.
w(0.7826) = 100(0.2042) + 200(0.0130) + 300(0.0002)
23.08
w= = $29.49
0.7826
50. The payoff table is as follows:

xi –$199,925 $75
pi 0.0003 0.9997
E(X) = (–199,925)(0.0003) + (75)(0.9997) = $15.
52. The payoff table for site A is as follows:

xi 30 million –3 million
pi 0.2 0.8
Hence, E(X) = (30)(0.2) + (–3)(0.8) = $3.6 million
The payoff table for site B is as follows:

xi 70 million –4 million
pi 0.11 0.89
Hence, E(X) = (70)(0.11) + (–4)(0.89) = $4.14 million.
The company should choose site B with E(X) = $4.14 million.
54. The payoff table is:

Number of W genes
present
xi pi
0 0.25
1 0.50
2 0.25
E(number of W genes) = (0)(0.25) + (1)(0.50) + (2)(0.25) = 1

xi $–2 $2 $5 $98 $49,998 $999,998 $399,999,998
pi 0.9597832 1/27.05 1/317.39 1/10,376.47 1/913,129.18 1/11,688,053.52 1/292,201,338
 1   1   1   1 
E ( X )  2(0.9597832)  2   5   98    49,998  
 27.05   317.39   10,376.47   913,129.18 
 1   1 
999.998    399,999,998   0.31, $  0.31
 11, 688.053.52   292, 202,338 
CHAPTER 8 REVIEW
1. First, we calculate the number of 5-card combinations that can be dealt from 52 cards:
52!
n(S) = 52 C5 = = 2,598,960
5!·47!
We then calculate the number of 5-club combinations that can be obtained from 13 clubs:
13!
n(E) = 13 C5 = = 1287
5!·8!
n( E ) 1287
Thus, P(5 clubs) = P(E) = = ≈ .0005. (8-1)
n( S ) 2,598,960
2. n(S) is computed by using the permutation formula:
15!
n( S )  15 P2   15  14  210.
(15  2)!
Thus, the probability that Brittani will be president and Ramon will be treasurer is:
n( E ) 1
= ≈ .0048. (8-1)
n( S ) 210
3. (A) The total number of ways of drawing 3 cards from 10 with order taken into account is given by:
10! 10·9·8·7!
10 P3 = = = 720
(10  3)! 7!
Thus, the probability of drawing the code word "dig" is:

1
P("dig") = ≈ .0014
720
(B) The total number of ways of drawing 3 cards from 10 without regard to order is given by:
10! 10·9·8·7!
C10,3 = = = 120
3!(10  3)! 3!7!
Thus, the probability of drawing the 3 cards "d," "i," and "g" (in some order) is:
1
P("d," "i," "g") = ≈ .0083. (8-1)
120

CHAPTER 8 REVIEW 8-33
f (E) 50
4. P(person having side effects) = = = .05. (8-1)
n 1000
5. The payoff table is as follows:
xi $2 $1 $0 $1 $2
1 1 1 1 1
pi 5 5 5 5 5
1 1 1 1 1
Hence, E(X) = (–2) · + (–1) · + 0· + 1· + 2· = 0
5 5 5 5 5
The game is fair. (8-5)
6. P(A) = .3, P(B) = .4, P(A  B) = .1
(A) P(A') = 1 – P(A) = 1 – .3 = .7
(B) P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B) = .3 + .4 – .1 = .6. (8-2)
7. Since the spinner cannot land on R and G simultaneously, R  G =  . Thus,

P(R  G) = P(R) + P(G) = .3 + .5 = .8
P( E )
The odds for an event E are:
P ( E ')
P( R  G ) .8 8
Thus, the odds for landing on either R or G are: = = or the odds are 8 to 2.
P[( R  G ) ] .2 2
(8-2)
a
8. If the odds for an event E are a to b, then P(E) = . Thus, the probability of rolling
ab
5
an 8 before rolling a 7 is: ≈ .455. (8-2)
11
9. P(T) = .27 (8-3) 10. P(Z) = .20 (8-3)
11. P(T  Z) = .02 (8-3) 12. P(R  Z) = .03 (8-3)
P( R  Z ) .03 P( Z  R ) .03
13. P(R | Z ) = = = .15 (8-3) 14. P(Z | R ) = = ≈ .1304
P( Z ) .20 P( R) .23
(8-3)
P(T  Z ) .02
15. P(T | Z ) = = = .10 (8-3)
P(Z ) .20
16. No, because P(T  Z) = .02 ≠ P(T)·P(Z) = (.27)(.20) = .054. (8-3)
17. Yes, because P(S  X) = .10 = P(S)·P(X) = (.5)(.2). (8-3)
18. P(A) = .4 from the tree diagram. (8-3)
19. P(B | A ) = .2 from the tree diagram. (8-3)
20. P(B | A' ) = .3 from the tree diagram. (8-3)

21. P(A  B) = P(A)P(B | A ) = (.4)(.2) = .08 (8-3)
22. P(A'  B) = P(A')P(B | A) = (.6)(.3) = .18 (8-3)
23. P(B) = P(A  B) + P(A'  B)

= P(A)P(B | A ) + P(A')P(B | A')
= (.4)(.2) + (.6)(.3) = .08 + .18 = .26 (8-3)
P( A  B) P ( A) P( B | A) P ( A) P( B | A)
24. P(A | B ) = = =
P( B) P( A  B)  P ( A ' B ) P( A) P ( B | A)  P( A ') P ( B | A ')
(.4)(.2)
= (from the tree diagram)
(.4)(.2)  (.6)(.3)
.08 8
= = or .307 ≈ .31 (8-4)
.26 26
P( A  B  ) P( A) P ( B  | A) (.4)(.8)
25. P(A | B') = = = [P(B) = .26, see Problem 23.]
P( B ) 1  P( B) 1  .26
.32 16
=  or .432 (8-4)
.74 37
26. Let E = "born in June, July or August."
(A) Empirical Probability:

f ( E ) 10 5
P(E) =  
n 32 16
(B) Theoretical Probability:

n( E ) 3 1
P(E) =  
n( S ) 12 4
(C) As the sample size in part (A) increases, the approximate empirical probability of event E
approaches the theoretical probability of event E. (8-1)
27. No. The total number of 3-card hands is C52,3. The number of hands containing 3 red cards
is C26,3 = 2600; the number of hands containing 2 red cards and one black card is
C26,2 · C26,1 = 8,450. These events are not equally likely. (8-1)
28. Yes. The number of hands containing either 2 or 3 red cards equals the number of hands containing 2 or 3
black cards. (8-1)
29. S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}.
1 1 1
The probabilities for 2 "heads," 1 "head," and 0 "heads" are, respectively, , , and . Thus, the payoff
4 2 4
table is:
xi $5 $4 $2
Pi .25 .5 .25
E(X) = .25(5) + .5(–4) + .25(2) = –0.25 or –$0.25

The game is not fair. (8-5)
30. S = {(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (1,2), (2,1), (1,3), (3,1), (2,3), (3,2)}; n(S) = 3·3 = 9
n( A) 3 1
(A) P(A) = =  [A = {(1,1), (2,2), (3,3)}]
n( S ) 9 3
n( B ) 2
(B) P(B) = = [B = {(2,3), (3,2)}] (8-3)
n( S ) 9
4 4 8 2
31. (A) P(jack or queen) = P(jack) + P(queen) = + = =
52 52 52 13
[Note: jack  queen =  .]
The odds for drawing a jack or queen are 2 to 11.
(B) P(jack or spade) = P(jack) + P(spade) – P(jack and spade)

4 13 1 16 4
= + – = =
52 52 52 52 13
The odds for drawing a jack or a spade are 4 to 9.
4 1
(C) P(ace) = = . Thus,
52 13
1 12
P(card other than an ace) = 1 – P(ace) = 1 – =
13 13
The odds for drawing a card other than a ace are 12 to 1. (8-2)
4 1
32. (A) The probability of rolling a 5 is = .
36 9
Thus, the odds for rolling a five are 1 to 8.
(B) Let x = amount house should pay (and return the $1 bet).
Then, for the game to be fair,
1 8 x 8
E(X) = x   + (–1)   = – = 0
9 9 9 9
x=8
Thus, the house should pay $8. (8-2)

33. Event E1 = 2 heads; f(E1) = 210.
Event E2 = 1 head; f(E2) = 480.
Event E3 = 0 heads; f(E3) = 310.
Total number of trials = 1000.

(A) The empirical probabilities for the events above are as follows:
210
P(E1) = = .21
1,000
480
P(E2) = = .48
1,000
310
P(E3) = = .31
1,000
(B) Sample space S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}.

1
P(2 heads) = = .25
4
2
P(1 head) = = .5
4
1
P(0 heads) = = .25
4
(C) Using part (B), the expected frequencies for each outcome are
as follows:
1
2 heads = 1000 · = 250
4
2
1 head = 1000 · = 500
4
1
0 heads = 1000 · = 250 (8-1, 8-5)
4
34. The individual tosses of a coin are independent events (the coin has no memory).
1
Therefore, P(H) = . (8-3)
2
35. (A) The sample space S is given by:
S = {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6),

2 (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6),
m
Su
3
m (3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6),
Su
4
m (4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6),
Su
5
Su
m (5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6),
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}
[Note: Event (2,3) means 2 on the first die and 3 on the second die.]
The probability distribution corresponding to this sample space is:

Sum xi 2 3 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1
Probability pi 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

 1   2   3   4   5   6   5 
(B) E(X) = 2   + 3   + 4   + 5   + 6   + 7   + 8  
 36   36   36   36   36   36   36 
 4   3   2   1 
+ 9   + 10   + 11   + 12   = 7 (8-5)
 36   36   36   36 
36. The event A that corresponds to the sum being divisible by 4 includes sums 4, 8, and 12.
This set is:
A = {(1, 3), (2, 2), (3, 1), (2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2), (6, 6)}
The event B that corresponds to the sum being divisible by 6 includes sums 6 and 12.
This set is:
B = {(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1), (6, 6)}
n( A) 9 1
P(A) = = =
n( S ) 36 4
n( B ) 6 1
P(B) = = =
n( S ) 36 6
1
P(A  B) = [Note: A  B = {(6, 6)}]
36
14 7 [Note: A  B = {(1, 3), (2, 2), (3, 1), (2, 6),

P(A  B) = or
36 18 (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2), (6, 6),
(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)}] (8-2)
37. The function P cannot be a probability function because:

(A) P cannot be negative. [Note: P(e2) = –0.2.]
(B) P cannot have a value greater than 1. [Note: P(e4) = 2.]
(C) The sum of the values of P must equal 1.

[Note: P(e1) + P(e2) + P(e3) + P(e4) = .1 + (–.2) + .6 + 2 = 2.5 ≠ 1.] (8-1)
38. Since n(A  B) = n(A) + n(B) – n(A  B), we have

80 = 50 + 45 – n(A  B) which implies n(A  B) = 15
Now, n(B') = n(U) – n(B) = 100 – 45 = 55
n(A') = n(U) – n(A) = 100 – 50 = 50, n(A  B') = n( A)  n( A  B )  50 – 15 = 35
n(B  A') = 45 – 15 = 30, n(A'  B') = 55 – 35 = 20
Thus,
A A Totals
B 15 30 45
(8-2)
B 35 20 55
Totals 50 50 100
39. (A) P(odd number) = P(1) + P(3) + P(5) = .2 + .3 + .1 = .6
(B) Let E = "number less than 4,"

and F = "odd number."

Now, E  F = {1, 3}, F = {1, 3, 5}.

P( E  F ) .2  .3 5
P(E | F ) = = = (8-3)
P( F ) .6 6
40. Let E = "card is red" and F = "card is an ace." Then F  E = "card is a red ace."
P( F  E ) 2 / 52 1
(A) P(F | E ) = = =
P( E ) 26 / 52 13
1 1 1
(B) P(F  E) = , and P(E) = , P(F) = . Thus,
26 2 13
P(F  E) = P(E)·P(F), and E and F are independent. (8-3)
41. (A) The tree diagram with replacement is: (B) The tree diagram without replacement is:
2 1
5 W2 4 W2
2 2
5
W1 5
W1
3 R2 3 R2
Start 5 Start 4
2 2
5 W2 4 W2
3 R1 3 R1
5 5
3 2
5 R2 4 R2
P(W1  R2 ) = P(W1) P(R2) P(W1  R2 ) = P(W1)P(R2|W1)

2 3 6 2 3 6 3
=   ≈ .24 =   = (8-3)
5 5 25 5 4 20 10
42. Part (B) involves dependent events because

3
P(R2| W1) =
4
6 6 12 3
P(R2) = P(W1  R2) + P(R1  R2) = + = =
20 20 20 5
and P(R2| W1) ≠ P(R2). The events in part (A) are independent. (8-3)
43. (A) Using the tree diagram in Problem 41(A), we have:

2 2 4
P(zero red balls) = P(W1  W2) = P(W1)P(W2) = · = = .16
5 5 25
P(one red ball) = P(W1  R2) + P(R1  W2) = P(W1)P(R2) + P(R1)P(W2)
2 3 3 2 12
= · + · = = .48
5 5 5 5 25
3 3 9
P(two red balls) = P(R1  R2) = P(R1)P(R2) = · = = .36
5 5 25
Thus, the probability distribution is:

Number of red balls Probability
xi pi
0 .16
1 .48
2 .36

The expected number of red balls is:
E(X) = 0(.16) + 1(.48) + 2(.36) = .48 + .72 = 1.2
(B) Using the tree diagram in Problem 41(B), we have:

2 1 1
P(zero red balls) = P(W1  W2) = P(W1)P(W2| W1) = · = = .1
5 4 10
P(one red ball) = P(W1  R2) + P(R1  W2)
= P(W1)P(R2| W1) + P(R1)P(W2| R1)
2 3 3 2 12 3
= · + · = = = .6
5 4 5 4 20 5
3 2 6
P(two red balls) = P(R1  R2) = P(R1)P(R2| R1) = · = = .3
5 4 20
Thus, the probability distribution is:
Number of red balls Probability

xi pi
0 .1
1 .6
2 .3
The expected number of red balls is:

E(X) = 0(.1) + 1(.6) + 2(.3) = 1.2. (8-5)
3
44. (A) P ( R |U1 )  {There are 3 red of the 5 balls in urn 1.}
5
1
(B) P ( R |U 2 )  {There is 1 red of the 5 balls in urn 2.}
3
P (U 2  W ) P (U 2  W )
(C) P (U 2 |W )  
P(W ) P (U1  W )  P (U 2  W )
 1  2  1 1
   5
2
   3
=  3  3 
     
1 2 1 2 1 1 8 8
       5  3 15
 2  5   2  3 
P(U1  R ) P (U1  R )
(D) P (U1 | R )  
P( R) P(U1  R )  P (U 2  R )
 1  3  3 3
   9
=   
2 5
 10  10  (8-3, 8-4)
     
1 3 1 1 3 1 7 14
       10  6 15
 2  5   2  3 
45. No, because P(R | U1) ≠ P(R). (See Problem 44.) (8-3)

46. n(S) = C52,5
(A) Let A be the event "all diamonds." Then n(A) = C13,5. Thus,
n( A) C13,5
P(A) = = .
n( S ) C52,5
(B) Let B be the event "3 diamonds and 2 spades." Then

n(B) = C13,3 · C13,2. Thus,
n( B ) C13,3  C13,2
P(B) = = . (8-1)
n( S ) C52,5
10! 10·9·8·7·6!
47. n(S) = C10,4 = = = 210
4!(10  4)! 4·3·2·1·6!
Let A be the event "The married couple is in the group of 4 people." Then
8! 8·7·6!
n(A) = C2,2·C8,2 = 1 · = = 28.
2!(8  2)! 2·1·6!
n( A) 28 2
Thus, P(A) = =  ≈ .1333. (8-1)
n( S ) 210 15
48. Events S and H are mutually exclusive. Hence, P(S  H) = 0, while P(S) ≠ 0 and P(H) ≠ 0.
Therefore,
P(S  H) ≠ P(S) · P(H)
which implies that S and F are dependent. (8-3)
8
49. (A) From the plot, P(2) = = .16.
50
(B) The event A = "the minimum of the two numbers is 2" contains the simple events
9 1
(2, 2), (2, 3), (3, 2), (2, 4), (4, 2), (2, 5), (5, 2), (2, 6), (6, 2). Thus n(A) = 9 and P(A) = = = .25.
36 4
(C) The empirical probability depends on the results of your simulation.

For the theoretical probability, let A = "minimum of the two numbers is 4."
Then A = {(4, 4), (4, 5), (5, 4), (4, 6), (6, 4)},
5
n(A) = 5 and P(A) = ≈ .139. (8-1)
36
50. The empirical probability depends on the results of your simulation.
Since there are 2 black jacks in a standard 52-card deck, the theoretical probability of drawing a black jack
2 1
is: = ≈ .038. (8-3)
52 26
P( E ) 1 1
51. False. If P(E) = 1, then P(E') = 0 and the odds for E = = ; is undefined. (8-2)
P( E  ) 0 0

52. True. In general, P(E  F) = P(E) + P(F) – P(E  F).

If E = F', then E  F = F'  F =  and P(E  F) = 0. (8-2)
53. False. Let E and F be complementary events with 0 < P(E) < 1, 0 < P(F) < 1.
Then E  F = E  E' =  and P(E  F) = 0 while P(E) · P(F) = P(E)[1 – P(E)] ≠ 0. (8-3)
54. False. Counterexample: Roll a fair die; S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

Let E = the number that turns up is ≥ 2;
F = the number that turns up is ≤ 4.
Then E  F = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and P(E  F) = 1 but F ≠ E'. (8-2)
55. True. This is the definition of independent events. (8-3)
56. False. If E and F are mutually exclusive, then E  F =  and the example in Problem 53
is a counterexample here. (8-2)
57. Let E2 be the event "2 heads."
(A) From the table, f(E2) = 350. Thus, the approximate empirical probability of obtaining
2 heads is:
f ( E2 ) 350
P(E2) ≈ = = .350
n 1,000
(B) S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
The theoretical probability of obtaining 2 heads is:

n ( E2 ) 3
P(E2) = = = .375
n( S ) 8
(C) The expected frequency of obtaining 2 heads in 1000 tosses of 3 fair coins is:
f(E2) = 1,000(0.375) = 375. (8-1)
1
58. On one roll of the dice, the probability of getting a double six is and the probability of not getting a
36
n
35  35 
double six is . On n independent rolls, the probability of no double sixes is   .
36  36 
In particular, we conclude that, in 24 rolls of the die,
 35  24
P(E') =   ≈ .5086
 36 
Therefore, P(E) = 1 – .5086 = .4914.
The payoff table is:
xi 1 1
Pi .4914 .5086
and E(X) = 1(.4914) + (–1)(.5086) = 0.4914 – 0.5086 = –0.0172

Thus, your expectation is –$0.0172. Your friend's expectation is $0.0172.

The game is not fair. (8-5)
59. The total number of ways that 3 people can be selected from a group of 10 is:
10! 10  9  8  7!
C10,3 = = = 120
3!(10  3)! 3  2 1  7!
The number of ways of selecting no women is:

7! 7  6  5  4!
C7,3 = = = 35
3!(7  3)! 3  2 1  4!
Thus, the number of samples of 3 people that contain at least one woman is 120 – 35 = 85.
Therefore, if event A is “At least one woman is selected,” then
n( A) 85 17
P(A) =   ≈ .708. (8-1)
n( S ) 120 24
12
60. P(second heart|first heart) = P(H2|H1) = ≈ .235
51
12
[Note: One can see that P(H2|H1) = directly.] (8-3)
51
P ( H1  H 2 ) P( H1 ) P ( H 2 | H1 )
61. P(first heart|second heart) = P(H1|H2) = =
P( H 2 ) P( H 2 )
P ( H1 ) P ( H 2 | H1 ) P ( H1 ) P ( H 2 | H1 )
= =
P ( H1  H 2 )  P ( H1 ' H 2 ) P ( H1 ) P ( H 2 | H1 )  P ( H1 ') P ( H 2 | H1 ')
13 12
·
52 51 12
= = ≈ .235 (8-3)
13 12 39 13 51
·  ·
52 51 52 51
62. Since each die has 6 faces, there are 6·6 = 36 possible pairs for the two up faces.
A sum of 2 corresponds to having (1, 1) as the up faces. This sum can be obtained in 3·3 = 9 ways (3 faces
on the first die, 3 faces on the second). Thus,
9 1
P(2) = = .
36 4
A sum of 3 corresponds to the two pairs (2, 1) and (1, 2). The number of such pairs is 2·3 + 3·2 = 12.
Thus,
12 1
P(3) = = .
36 3
A sum of 4 corresponds to the pairs (3, 1), (2, 2), (1, 3). There are 1·3 + 2·2 + 3·1 = 10 such pairs.
Thus,
10
P(4) = .
36

A sum of 5 corresponds to the pairs (2, 3) and (3, 2). There are 2·1 + 1·2 = 4 such pairs. Thus,
4 1
P(5) = = .
36 9
A sum of 6 corresponds to the pair (3, 3) and there is one such pair. Thus,
1
P(6) = .
36
(A) The probability distribution for X is:
xi 2 3 4 5 6
9 12 10 4 1
Pi 36 36 36 36 36
(B) The expected value is:
 9   12   10   4   1  120 10
E(X) = 2   + 3   + 4   + 5   + 6   =  (8-5)
 36   36   36   36   36  36 3
xi $1.50 $0.50 $0.50 $1.50 $2.50

9 12 10 4 1
Pi 36 36 36 36 36
9 12 10 4 1
and E(X) = (–1.50) + (–0.50) + (0.50) + (1.50) + (2.50)
36 36 36 36 36
= –0.375 – 0.167 + 0.139 + 0.167 + 0.069
= –0.167 or –$0.167 ≈  $0.17
The game is not fair. The game would be fair if you paid $3.50 – $0.17 = $3.33 to play. (8-5)
64. The tree diagram for this experiment is: 1

4 B
3 2 1 1 1
(A) P(black on the fourth draw) =    3 B
4 3 2 4 1
3 W
4 2 B
2 W
3
1 W B
2
The odds for black on the fourth draw are 1 to 3.
(B) Let x = amount house should pay (and return the $1 bet).
Then, for the game to be fair:
1 3 x 3
E(X) = x   + (–1)   = – = 0; x = 3
4 4 4 4
Thus, the house should pay $3. (8-2, 8-4)

65. n(S) = 10·10·10·10·10 = 105
Let event A = “at least two people identify the same book.” Then A' = “each person identifies a different
book,” and
10!
n(A') = 10·9·8·7·6 =
5!
10!
10! 10!
Thus, P(A') = 5!5 = 5
and P(A) = 1 – ≈ 1 – .3 = .7. (8-2)
10 5!10 5!105
P( A  B) P( A  B)
66. P(A | B ) = , P(B | A ) = .
P( B) P ( A)
P( A  B) P( A  B)
Now, P(A | B ) = P(B | A ) if and only if =
P( B) P ( A)
which implies P(A) = P(B) or P(A  B) = 0. (8-3)
67.
Event M = Reads the morning paper.

Event E = Watches evening news.
(A) P(reads the paper or watches the news) = P(M or E) = P(M  E)

= P(M) + P(E)  P(M  E)
40 70 30
= +  = .8
100 100 100
20
(B) P(does neither) =  .20 (from the Venn diagram)
100
or = 1  P(M  E) {i.e., P[(M  E)'}
= 1  .8 = .20
10  40
(C) P(does exactly one) =  .50 (from the Venn diagram)
100
10 40
or  P[( M  E ') or ( M ' E )]  P ( M  E ')  P( M ' E )    .50
100 100
(8-2)
68. Let A be the event that a person has seen the advertising and P be the event that the person purchased the
product. Given:
P(A) = .4 and P(P | A ) = .85
We want to find:
P(A  P) = P(A)P(P | A ) = (.4)(.85) = .34. (8-3)

290
69. (A) P(A) = = .290
1,000
290
P(B) = = .290
1,000
100
P(A  B) = = .100
1,000
100
P(A | B ) = = .345
290
100
P(B | A ) = = .345
290
(B) A and B are not independent because

.100 = P(A  B) ≠ P(A)·P(B) = (.290)(.290) = .084
880
(C) P(C) = = .880
1,000
120
P(D) = = .120
1,000
P(C  D) = 0; P (C | D )  P ( D | C )  0
(D) C and D are mutually exclusive since C  D =  . C and D are dependent since
0 = P(C  D) ≠ P(C) · P(D) = (.120)(.880) = .106. (8-3)
70. The payoff table for plan A is:
xi 10 million 2 million
p1 .8 .2
Hence, E(X) = 10(.8) – 2(.2) = 8 – 0.4 = $7.6 million.
The payoff table for plan B is:
xi 12 million 2 million
p1 .7 .3
Hence, E(X) = 12(.7) – 2(.3) = 8.4 – 0.6 = $7.8 million.
Plan B should be chosen. (8-5)
xi 1,830 170,
[Note: 2,000  170 = 1,830 is the “gain” if the bicycle is stolen]
p1 .8 .92
Hence, E(X) = 1,830(.08)  170 (.92) = 146.4  156.4 =  $10. (8-5)

12! 12·11·10·9·8!
72. n(S) = C12,4 = = = 495
4!(12  4)! 4·3·2·1·8!
The number of samples that contain no substandard parts is:

10! 10·9·8·7·6!
C10,4 = = = 210
4!(10  4)! 4·3·2·1·6!
Thus, the number of samples that have at least one defective part is
495 – 210 = 285. If E is the event “The shipment is returned,” then
n( E ) 285
P(E) = = ≈ .576. (8-2)
n( S ) 495
12! 12·11·10·9!
73. n(S) = C12,3 = = = 220
3!(12  3)! 3·2·1·9!
A sample will either have 0, 1, or 2 tablet computers.

10! 10·9·8·7!
C10,3 3!(10  3)! 120 12
P(0) = = = 3·2·1·7! = =
C12,3 220 220 220 22
10!
2·
C2,1  C10,1 2!(10  2)! 90 9
P(1) = = = =
C12,3 220 220 22
C2,2  C10,1 10 1
P(2) = = =
C12,3 220 22
(A) The probability  12   9   1 

(B) E(X) = 0   + 1   + 2  
distribution of X is:  22   22   22 
11 1
= =
xi 0 1 2 22 2
12 9 1 (8-5)
pi 22 22 22
74. Let Event NH = individual with normal heart,

Event MH = individual with minor heart problem,
Event SH = individual with severe heart problem,
and Event P = individual passes the cardiogram test.
Then, using the notation given above, we have:
P(NH) = .82
P(MH) = .11
P(SH) = .07
P(P | NH) = .95
P(P | MH) = .30
P(P | SH) = .05

Solution Manual for College Mathematics for Business, Economics Life Sciences and Social Sci
P( NH  P ) P ( NH ) P( P | NH )
We want to find P(NH| P ) = =
P( P) P( NH  P )  P ( MH  P)  P ( SH  P )
P ( NH ) P ( P | NH )
=
P( NH ) P ( P | NH )  P( MN ) P ( P | MH )  P ( SH ) P ( P | SH )
(.82)(.95)
= = .955
(.82)(.95)  (.11)(.30)  (.07)(.05)
(8-4)
75. The tree diagram for this problem is as follows:

6
100 C (Colorblind)
1
2
M (Man)
94 C (Not colorblind)
Start 100
1
100 C
1 W (Woman)
2
99
100 C
We now compute
P( M  C ) P( M  C ) P ( M ) P (C | M )
P(M | C ) = = =
P (C ) P( M  C )  P(W  C ) P( M ) P(C | M )  P (W ) P (C | W )
1 6
·
2 100 6
= = ≈ .857. (8-4)
1 6 1 1 7
·  ·
2 100 2 100
76. According to the empirical probabilities, candidate A should have won the election. Since
candidate B won the election one week later, either some of the students changed their minds
during the week, or the 30 students in the math class were not representative of the student body.
(8-4)
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12. Let Y  yellow , R  red , and G  green . Then

14. Let Z  purple . Since there are no purple sectors, P ( Z )  0 .

26. Let G  girl and B  boy . Then S  (G, G ), (G , B ), ( B, G ), ( B, B )

28. From Problem 27(C), P ( J )  0.26 , P (G )  0.14 , P ( P )  0.30 , P ( S )  0.30 . So,

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30. Using probabilities given in problem 27(C),

32. S  (G, G, G ), (G, G, B ), (G , B, G ), (G , B, B ), ( B, G , G ), ( B, G , B ), ( B, B, G ), ( B, B, B )

E: 2 boys and 1 girl in any order so E  (G, B, B ), ( B, G, B), ( B, B, G )

36. Let S = the set of five-card hands. Then n(S) = 52 C 5 .

38. S = set of five-card hands; n(S) = 52 C 5 .

Since the individual hands are equally likely to occur:

42. n(S) = 6 P6 = 6! = 720

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48. Let D = "Sum is not 2, 4, or 6", and let E = "Sum is 2, 4, or 6".

54. Let H = "Sum is 2, 3, or 12." Then

are: 6 and 12.

60. Let B = "0 heads". Then n(B) = 0 and P(B) = 0.

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For Problems 72–76 , the sample space S is given by:

The outcomes are equally likely and n(S) = 9.

82. Let B = "6-card hand with exactly two clubs".

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O1: Choose 1 king; N1  4 C 1  4

O2: Choose 2 jacks; N 2  4 C 2  6 .

O3: Choose 4 cards from the remaining 44 (no kings, no jacks); N 3  44 C 4 .

88. (A) Answer depends on the results of simulation.

(B) In this case, n(S) = 4 and the probability of each outcome

(B) Answer depends on the results of simulation.

(D) Let D = "At least 3 from A", then

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12. P[(A B) ']  1  P(A  B)  1  0.38  0.62

20. P(D’  F) = P(D’) + P(F) – P(D’  F)

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26. Let E = “number is even”; F = “number is multiple of 7”. Then n( E )  12, n( F )  3, n( E  F )  1

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(C) P(E) = 0.6, P ( E ') = 1 – 0.6 = 0.4

(D) P(E) = 0.35, P ( E ') = 1 – 0.35 = 0.65

50. Let E = "a number divisible by 3 in a single roll of a die".

Thus, (assuming that the die is fair)

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54. Let E = "2 heads when a single coin is tossed twice".

56. Let E = "an odd number or a number divisible by 3 in a single roll

10  30  70  150  80  50  170  70 630

(B) Let B = "the sum is an odd number or is exactly divisible by 3".

OR P(B) = P(sum odd) + P(sum divisible by 3)

30  70  150  140  80 30  110  140  70 30  140

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64. Let B = "a heart or a number less than 7". Then

between 1 and 100.

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(C) Answer depends on the results of simulation.

(B) P(A  B') = P(A) – P(A  B) = 0.3 – 0.15 = 0.15

(A) P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B) = 0.5 + 0.53 – 0.25 = 0.78

(B) P(A'  C) = P(C) – P(A  C) = 0.085 – 0.05 = 0.035

1  0.035 965 193

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8. R = card is red, F = card is a face card; n( R )  26, n( F )  12, n( R  F )  6.

10. F = card is a face card, R = card is red; n( R )  26, n( F )  12, n( R  F )  6.

12. J = card is a jack, R = card is red; n( J )  4, n( R )  26, n( J  R )  2.